The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Saturday, May 23, 2009

Yankees.com: Yanks walk off on Cabrera’s hit in ninth

NEW YORK—Much has been made of the abundance of home runs flying out of the new Yankee Stadium. And while Saturday afternoon’s game saw four balls leave the park, it was another trend in the Yankees’ new digs that landed them the win.

With one out in the ninth inning, Melky Cabrera laced a single into right-center, scoring Robinson Cano and giving the Yankees a 5-4 walk-off win over the Phillies, in front of a crowd of 46,889.

Melky’s making a lot of us look dumb, huh?  I hope he can keep it up.

This team sure has been fun to watch lately. 

And this is cool too.

--Posted at 10:12 pm by SG / 37 Comments | - (154)

Comments

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I have the utmost confidence in Carsten Charles.

Melky has been a LD machine. His LD% this season (going into today’s game) is 26%. His career LD% is 19% (which is league average).

Kevin Long said he hasn’t the highest percentage of good at bats on the team.

Has this been the best 10 day (or so) stretch of regular season baseball in years?  The only thing that comes close in my mind is when the Yankees swept the Red Sox late in the regular season to take control of the division lead.  But last weekend was just amazing, and by the time I recovered from today’s game, the Mets were taking the lead against the Sox in the 9th (btw, gotta love the dumb Red Sox fan in the monster pointing to the padding ABOVE the red line).

When Posada comes back, I may not even be able to watch games any more b/c my expectations will be too high.

Tampa’s pythag would indicate that they are due for a surge at some point too.  And of course it is fantastic that a career minor league scrub, i.e. Omir Santos (who was a former Yankee farmhand to boot) ruined Papelbon’s day.  No fist pump for you Paps.

Tampa’s bullpen is worse than ours.  That’s going to hurt them all year.  Percival might actually retire.

Percival retiring would probably help Tampa’s pen.

The problem is they don’t have much else.  Wheeler is awful and they actually pitch him in big spots.

I’m happy for Melky, but I’m not ready to start talking him up yet. It’s been a very promising 123 ABs though.

Cano’s SB in the ninth was huge.

Sabathia vs. Hamels should be a lot of fun tomorrow.

That’s funny - I haven’t heard any “David Price should pitch teh eighth” talk spewing from the masses.

Oh didn’t you get the memo, its unthinkable for the great David Price to be anything but a starter in the media’s eyes.

On the Cano SB - a rare excellent point from Vina on BBT about Lidge being EXTREMELY slow to the plate which is what really allowed the SB.

I think we can all agree Cano (who is still below 50% lifetime SB%) really should only be allowed to attempt to steal in a situation like that (reliever who is slow to the plate, in a spot where having him on 2B instead of 1B is insanely beneficial, and where getting caught doesn’t lose them the game)

its unthinkable for the great David Price to be anything but a starter in the media’s eyes.

The media happens to be right, of course.

Balfour was great for them last year and he hasn’t been any great shakes either.  In any case, Tampa will be a factor in the race.  No one doubts Boston will and their starters have the worst ERA in the AL - or did until recently.

By the way, why is Brett Tomko on the roster while David Robertson and Mark Melancon toil away in AAA?

By the way, why is Brett Tomko on the roster while David Robertson and Mark Melancon toil away in AAA?

From a pessimistic perspective, it could be because Girardi relies too much on veterans.

But trying to be optimistic, it could be because they want to see what they have in Tomko before moving on to a younger, more talented reliever.

Given how many more opportunities to fail that Alby, Ramirez, and Veras have received in comparison to Melancon and Robertson, it’s hard not to think it’s the former.

By the way, why is Brett Tomko on the roster while David Robertson and Mark Melancon toil away in AAA?

I would guess he’s there because he’s an arm they don’t have to care about who has a chance to not suck out of the pen. He’s a terrible starter, but he whooped on AAA hitters out of the pen and he hasn’t sucked yet (although he will, don’t get me wrong). As long as the rotation is going through this Wang situation, the Yanks probably need guys to eat innings more than need guys to throw a really good inning or two. Tomko is better at that, and no one in the organization really gives a crap about what that might do to his arm. I bet that we’ll see the young guys when either Wang settles down again and can start or if the Yanks continue to put themselves in a better position in the standings. They’ll probably be more inclined to break those guys in when they’re sitting in first place.

Well, Ramirez, Alby and Veras have track records of success in the majors - albeit rather brief ones.  The same cannot be said yet of Melancon or Robertson.  I don’t think it’s just the cut and dried veteran thing.

Kepner: “Kevin Long, the hitting coach, evaluates each at-bat by the Yankees and classifies it as good or bad. He also tracks whether a ball is hit hard or not. Cabrera, he said, leads the team in both categories, with about 60 percent good at-bats and 50 percent hard-hit balls.”

More Kepner:  “The Yankees have gone 10 games without an error, their longest such streak since 1995. ... Before Melky Cabrera, the last Yankee with three game-ending hits in a season was Claudell Washington, who had four in 1988.”

The ‘98 Yankees didn’t manage 10 games w/o an error?  Knoblauch already?  Thought he was good back then.

Who the heck is Claudell Washington?

Claudell Washington was awesome.  When he timed a fastball, it seemed like no one hit it harder.  Sheffieldian.  Mel Hall was another such guy.

The Yankees have gone 10 games without an error, their longest such streak since 1995.

Wow, hadn’t noticed that.

Who the heck is Claudell Washington?

I don’t know if I would term him “awesome”, but then again I didn’t really become aware of him until the Yankees acquired him in 1986, and he was unimpressive with an OPS+ of 87 then (though it seems he improved to an OPS+ of 120 by 1988).  I believe he is still the answer to the trivia question, “who was the last Yankee to still home plate?”  He did have a fine career.  Perhaps a borderline member of the “Hall of Very Good”.

That’s funny - I haven’t heard any “David Price should pitch teh eighth” talk spewing from the masses.

Price only put up a 230 ERA+ in 14 innings a reliever last year.  Chamberlain had 24 innings of 1192 in 2007.  Anybody can do what Price did in teh eighth.  Joba, OTOH, never would have given up a run had the Yankees left him the pen.

In all seriousness however, assuming price does as well as expected, the Rays will have an interesting problem when Kazmir comes back—more than five good starters and a pretty crappy bullpen screwing those good starts up.  Of course, I still wouldn’t expect a lot of hand-wringing over who pitches the eighth until they figure out who pitches the ninth.

Washington was a legitimate five-tool phee-nom.  He was in the majors at 19 and an all-star at 20.  That 20 year-old season was with the AL West Champion 1975 Oakland A’s, so it’s not like he was some lousy team’s mandatory pick.  He was going to be a superstar, but he wound up being just a very good major leaguer for a very long time.  Roy White is second on his BB-REF comp list.

Claudell Washington hit the foul ball caught by Ferris Bueller in FB’s day off

Tomko will eventually suck, but so far he hasn’t. he’s on the team b/c he hasn’t walked anyone yet.  it’s that simple. 

but yes, once the Hughes/Wang situation gets sorted out, Robertson should get the next shot.

Well, Ramirez, Alby and Veras have track records of success in the majors - albeit rather brief ones.  The same cannot be said yet of Melancon or Robertson.  I don’t think it’s just the cut and dried veteran thing.

First, any track record of success by Ramirez, Alby, and Veras has been tempered by periods of failure:

ERA:
Ramirez: 2007: 8.14 (21 IP), 2008: 3.90 (55 IP), 2009: 5.19 (17 IP)
Alby: 2007: 1.88 (14 IP), 2008: 3.95 (13 IP), 2009: 6.00 (21 IP)
Veras: 2006: 4.09 (11 IP), 2007: 5.79 (9 IP), 2008: 3.59 (58 IP), 2009: 6.00 (18 IP)

(It should be noted that Veras had the second lowest WPA of any Yankee reliever in 2008, so high leverage situations are not his strength.)

Meanwhile, Robertson and Melancon have dominated at times in their mL careers:

Robertson: ERA: 1.31, K/9: 12.6, WHIP: 0.95
Melancon:  ERA: 2.21, K/9: 8.9, WHIP: 0.99

Whatever success Ramirez, Alby, and Veras have had, it seems apparent that none of them project to be a consistently effective 8th inning reliever, which, as a result of the injury issues that have beset the relievers who were supposed to fill that role (Bruney and Marte), remains their biggest need (unless Bruney fully recovers or Coke can fill it by himself). 

Second, a young player usually won’t have sustained success in the MLs unless he is given a full chance to fail, and Melancon and Robertson haven’t yet been afforded that opportunity.

When you then factor in that Ramirez is 28, Alby will be 27 in October, and Veras will be 29 in October, while Robertson and Melancon are 24, the case for being patient with one or both, even if it means enduring short-term pain in order to reap mid- to long-term gain, seems pretty compelling.

Apart from their non-veteran status, I don’t understand why that hasn’t happened yet.

Just a lil note, almost no walks yesterday save for that one in the ninth by Damon. That was sweet.

And I had to commute after the 6th. How was Coke?

Claudell Washington also made an inordinate amount of homer-saving catches as a Yankee, if I remember correctly.

An inordinate amount being, like, two, but still!

Second, a young player usually won’t have sustained success in the MLs unless he is given a full chance to fail, and Melancon and Robertson haven’t yet been afforded that opportunity.

and the key word is “yet”.

b/c there is a 100% chance this is going to happen.  and it’s going to happen this season.

also, it’s only May 20-something, yet both Albie and Edwar have been demoted.  so let’s not overstate the case that they have been given this infinite length of rope.  if they had, wouldn’t they still be on the team?

i just don’t see the veteran-itis here.  Edwar was given tons of opportunity last year, and he was a rookie.  so was Robertson.  so was Aceves.

Gardner was handed the CF job out of ST.  Pena was given the utility role over Berroa.  Cervelli is playing over Cash. 

the Yankees are walking a difficult path with Melancon.  the organization is obviously VERY high on him, yet they are trying to balance his development as a prospect with the needs of the big league club.  it seems obvious to me that they did not want to call him up as early as they did, and only did so b/c they had to.  i don’t know if it’s so simple as just “throw him out there and let him take his lumps”.  they don’t view him as just another arm, they really value his future. 

he’ll get another shot and it will probably be soon.

Yeah, I don’t mind Melancon’s treatement at all so far. He is going to be a big part of their future, so they want to make sure he’s developed well. Makes sense to me.

As for Tomko, we all know Tomko is not a very good pitcher, but damned if he hasn’t pitched well since he’s been up, so what’s the big deal if he keeps pitching? It’s not like the guy is pitching poorly - he’s actually pitching decently.

4 hits in four games (and three of them in his first game) without a walk? That’s not too shabby.

D. Jeter ss      
J. Damon lf      
M. Teixeira 1b
A. Rodriguez 3b  
R. Cano 2b  
M. Cabrera rf  
H. Matsui dh  
F. Cervelli c  
B. Gardner cf

Melky batting ahead of Matsui, as well! Woah.

And Swisher finally gets the day off he’s probably needed for awhile now.

Melky batting ahead of Matsui, as well! Woah.

So what should we make of Girardi’s rampant hot-hand-itis?

OTOH, with Swisher getting the day off, it’s likely that Carbera got moved up just to split up the lefties.

Jimmy Rollins SS
Shane Victorino CF
Raul Ibanez DH
Ryan Howard 1B
Jayson Werth LF
John Mayberry Jr. RF
Pedro Feliz 3B
Eric Bruntlett 2B
Carlos Ruiz C

Bruntlett in for Utley.  I’ll take it.

I totally agree with you Rich, I was just trying to figure out the rationale for giving Veras, Albaladejo and Edwar so many chances to fail.  Girardi seems particularly determined to let Veras figure things out - and at least he didn’t walk the first batter last night, but personally I have no faith in the guy.  He’s the reliever version of Daniel Cabrera, i.e. good stuff, zero command.

OTOH, with Swisher getting the day off, it’s likely that Carbera got moved up just to split up the lefties.

Yeah, good point. It’s likely a mix of those two things (Girardi liking the hot hand and breaking up the lefties)

I totally agree with you Rich, I was just trying to figure out the rationale for giving Veras, Albaladejo and Edwar so many chances to fail.

Edwar pitched in 15 games before being demoted.

does that really qualify as “so many chances”? 

Girardi seems particularly determined to let Veras figure things out

not really, it’s simply that Veras cannot be demoted without permanently cutting ties with him.  for a team struggling to find relievers, should they be so quick to release someone who throws 95? 

i’m as frustrated with Veras as anyone else, but i don’t know if i would release him either.  i doubt he’ll survive the summer in pinstripes, but i don’t think it’s so simple as you make it sound, either.

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