I’m worried about this team.  They just won their seventh game in a row and they’re only in first by 2.5 games?  That’s bullcrap.

On the other hand, since Boston is now in second place, the Yanks’ record against first place teams is eight games better than before.

When Posada is hitting well, the offense is almost unstoppable.

When Cano is hitting .000 with RISP the offense is almost unstoppable.

Well yeah, thanks to Posada…

So, is the MSM narrative still that the Yanks don’t have a good bullpen and could use help there?  Because it seems like they have a really, really, really good one right now.

Joba tomorrow against Brett Anderson. Hope it lives up to the billing. Should be a very interesting game to watch. Hope Joba is the Joba we saw last week.

After the first three frames I thought this was the inevitable letdown after a nice winning streak. I’m glad the team proved me wrong. Extending the streak tonight would be nice, but it’s more important that Joba put forth a very good effort. Rarely in the first half did he have back to back top notch starts. I would hope he dominates a lineup like Oakland’s.

So, is the MSM narrative still that the Yanks don’t have a good bullpen and could use help there?  Because it seems like they have a really, really, really good one right now.

I believe the narrative has changed to: they don’t have starting pitching depth.

The Untouchables

  Jesus Montero, c/dh, Yankees

Scouts who cover the Yankees organization are fond of saying the team over-values its own prospects, but the scouting consensus is that Montero is the real deal. He has premium raw power and pure hitting ability to go with it. If he can catch, he could have a Mike Piazza-esque career. More than likely, he’s New York’s future DH, and the Yankees’ asking price for him is prohibitive.

I believe the narrative has changed to: they don’t have starting pitching depth.

Annoyingly, both of these narratives—unlike the A-Rod one—have a lot of truth behind them. The bullpen early in the year was gruesome, and while it was a little melodramatic to claim the Yankees were hopeless on that front, they did need to change basically all the non-Rivera personnel to come up with a good one.

Right now, they are a little weak on SP depth. Obviously you could move a Hughes or Aceves into the rotation, but that’s not ideal and as Pete Abe pointed out, if they had to play a double header today, the fill-in starter might be (ugh) Igawa

There seems to be some sentiment over on Pete’s blog that CC is a bit of a disappointment because he only has a 3.67 ERA and there are (by my count) 16 regular AL starters with lower ERAs at this point in the season.  Am I crazy in feeling perfectly satisfied with a no. 1 starter who goes roughly 7 innings at 3 ER every five days?  This isn’t fantasy baseball.  An ERA in the low 3s would be nice, but I feel that CC’s level of consistency and ability to go deep into games makes up for the lack of a stellar ERA, no?

I believe the narrative has changed to: they don’t have starting pitching depth.

Right but taking Hughes out of the bullpen and putting him back into the rotation is still unthinkable to them.  It is almost as big a sin as their refusal to put Joba back in the pen despite all the overwhelming evidence he has already failed as a starter.

Gotta love the MSM.

Was it just me, or did Jeter put an extra pad on his right hand when he got on base last night? Tiny sample, I know, but he’s slugging .296 since the break and I’m worried that dbag Lincecum is the new Daniel Cabrera.

they did need to change basically all the non-Rivera personnel to come up with a good one

Of course, this is what most teams do most years.  Yet year in and year out, everyone seems to forget that a relief pitcher who is effective for more than a couple of consecutive seasons is a rarity, and that trying to build a consistent bullpen by collecting pitchers who are established as dominant setup relievers in the minds of the MSM is a fool’s errand.  Yeah, I’m looking at you, Putz.

taking Hughes out of the bullpen and putting him back into the rotation is still unthinkable to them

Apparently, it is also unthinkable to Cashman and Girardi, at least until 2010.

as Pete Abe pointed out, if they had to play a double header today, the fill-in starter might be (ugh) Igawa

As usual, Pete is FOS.  If they needed a fill-in starter today, it would be Aceves and they’d option whatever spare bullpen parts they used backing him up and bring up a couple of fresh arms in time for the next game.  They’re not even going to think about adding Igawa back to the 40-man roster unless another starter has to go on the DL.  And even then, they’d probably still move Aceves into the rotation and use Igawa as a LOOGY.

Yeah, I’m looking at you, Putz.

+10, double entendre

How many more times will a 5th starter be needed this season?  Even if they lost the majority of those games, they’d still be in good shape against Tampa.

How many more times will a 5th starter be needed this season?  Even if they lost the majority of those games, they’d still be in good shape against Tampa.

Well with Wang down possibly for the rest of the year there is also the matter of the playoffs.  Right now we have two solid locks for the playoff rotation.  The other two spots in the playoff rotation are up for grabs.  I’d rather have Hughes making a case to claim that spot than Mitre or Igawa. 

Turn you question around.  How often will the difference between Hughes and a non Mo, Aceves, and Coke reliever cost the Yankees a win between now and the playoffs?  Even if it does cost them a few games they are still in good shape vs. Tampa/Texas.

Christ, we’ve have people like Robertson, Melancon, and Bruney that have had almost no work since before the All Star break.

18 - Are we assuming here that Joba will not be a part of the postseason rotation?

An ERA in the low 3s would be nice, but I feel that CC’s level of consistency and ability to go deep into games makes up for the lack of a stellar ERA, no?

Add in the fact that CC had a poor April - which anecdotally is the norm for him - and it’s not that bad.  Sure, it would be nice if he threw a 9 inning SO every time.  But he’s doing fine.  According to FanGraphs, he’s the 8th best starting pitcher in the AL right now, and none of the guys ahead of him are anything less than excellent pitchers (or at least pitchers having excellent seasons).

How many more times will a 5th starter be needed this season?

Unknown.  Depends on how many rainouts there are (reducing off-days/adding double-headers) among other things.  Also if they (virtually) clinch the playoffs early enough it may not matter who is starting in September.  I think the biggest issue with *maybe* needing another starter is something Cashman and Girardi have talked about - depth.  They’re probably okay IF no one else gets hurt.  E.g. if Pettitte goes down for a month AND Mitre isn’t effective, you’re either taking both Aceves and Hughes out of the pen (potentially opening a hole there), or having Igawa as a starter.  I think that’s the greater concern right now.

18 - Are we assuming here that Joba will not be a part of the postseason rotation?

I think we’re assuming Joba isn’t a lock, because we don’t know both how effective he’ll be nor what his innings-limit does.

There seems to be some sentiment over on Pete’s blog that CC is a bit of a disappointment because he only has a 3.67 ERA and there are (by my count) 16 regular AL starters with lower ERAs at this point in the season.  Am I crazy in feeling perfectly satisfied with a no. 1 starter who goes roughly 7 innings at 3 ER every five days?

No, but you’re crazy for reading Abraham’s blog and thinking there’s anything insightful to be gleaned from there.  Those are the people who want to DFA everyone in sight after every loss.

a) PARK FACTORS - Of course C.C.‘s ERA is higher than expected.  He’s playing half his games in a park that has boosted scoring by about 7%.  Put him in a neutral park this year and his ERA is around 3.50.  His average 2009 projection was 3.29, although CAIRO had him at 3.48 for whatever that’s worth.

b) Innings are valuable, like you say. I have C.C. ranked ninth in the AL terms of runs saved above replacement level for all pitchers.  At 30.5 RSAR, he’s on pace to finish the season around 50 runs above replacement level. That’s probably worth something like $25-30 million to Yankees.

c) We’re only through 58% of the season which means there’s a lot of time left for C.C. to pitch a little better.  Unfortunately/fortunately for him, the final judgement of his season will likely be how he pitches in the postseason if by some miracle the Yankees can hold off the best team in baseball (Boston) and the best pythag team in baseball (Tampa Bay) and make it.  Same thing with Burnett most likely.

Has C.C. been what I expected?  Not quite, so far.  His K rate is lower than projected and his BB rate is a bit higher.  But he’s been a horse, he gives the team lots o’ innings, and his stuff looks good.  We should probably expect him to pitch better going forward too.

18 - Are we assuming here that Joba will not be a part of the postseason rotation?

Figure Joba will pitch the fifth and sixth, and Hughes will pitch the seventh and ate, with Mo in the ninth.  The Yankees will be essentially be playing four inning games.  Who can’t win a four inning game?

Those are the people who want to DFA everyone in sight after every loss.

Huh, that looks familar.

Unknown.

Well, strictly speaking, sure.  But they have 67 games left, so I’d say that 13 is a pretty good guess.  They probably won’t be skipping the fifth starter too often since Pettitte and Chamberlain can probably both use an extra day’s rest now and then.

I think Girardi and co. are fairly committed to starting Joba through to possible playoff games.  Given the occasional wacky first round makeup, I think its possible that a team may only need 3 starters.  If this is the case, I’m not sure they give the ball to Pettitte over Joba.  It all depends on who is pitching better at the close of the regular season (as well as opponent matchups).  Innings limits may also be a determining factor.

But if Joba isn’t your number 4, who is?

I do love the idea of having a Joba/Hughes/Mo shutdown squad, but at the expense of having Aceves or Mitre start a game 4? Of course, this will probably be rendered moot in the next 2-3 weeks with the pickup of a capable starter.

Also, if the Indians could beat the 2007 Yankees (950+ runs scored) with Paul Byrd starting a game 4, I like this team’s chances trotting almost anyone (non-Igawa) out there.

But if Joba isn’t your number 4, who is?

I say talk Jimmy Key out of retirement.

Joba’s got what, 12-13 starts left?  He’s averaging around 5.3 innings per start, which puts him at something like 160-170 innings at year end.  Not sure what his innings limit is, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it was around that mark.  I guess a lot depends on playoff position and how well he pitches going forward.  If he builds on his last start and starts to go deeper into games they may have to skip him a few times. 

I’m guessing we’d see Ivan Nova before we see Igawa again.

I’m guessing we’d see Ivan Nova before we see Igawa again.

I’m still holding out hope the Yanks can ship Igawa and cash to some NL team for a UI or BP arm.  There has to be a taker….right?  I mean, how can you pass up the Yanks AAA all-time win leader?

I heard this on the radio on my way in to work this morning, and if you missed everyone’s favorite announcer Hawk Harrelson making the call for Buerhle’s perfect game yesterday, here it is in all it’s glory.  I couldn’t stop laughing.  The station overlayed it with the diner scene in When Harry Met Sally, it was appropriate.

Do you think there’s any sort of conversion for pitches-to-innings for Joba?  I mean, some of his starts haven’t gone too many innings, but he’s thrown a decent number of pitches.  Think they are considering that as well?

I think Girardi and co. are fairly committed to starting Joba through to possible playoff games.  Given the occasional wacky first round makeup, I think its possible that a team may only need 3 starters.  If this is the case, I’m not sure they give the ball to Pettitte over Joba.

I fully expect Pettitte to break down in August.  Or I’m at least prepared for the possibility.  But if he doesn’t, and the offdays in the ALDS are such that ony 3 starters are needed, I think Andy could very well get the nod, based on veteranness and the perception that he’s a BIG GAME PITCHER.  Not necessarily agreeing with such a choice, but it’s worth considering that Joba has value in the bullpen while Pettitte really does not.

Of course, this will probably be rendered moot in the next 2-3 weeks with the pickup of a capable starter.

So who’s it gonna be?  Lee and Halladay seem cost-prohibitive.  It appears the market for Washburn is about to get hot as teams realize they don’t want to pay the haul for Halladay.  Who else is out there?  Doug Davis?  If he matches up with Lester, will it be the first battle of cancer survivors?

Holliday about to be dealt to St. Loo according to reports.  That’d be cool if he misses the last 2-3 games of this series.

I’m still holding out hope the Yanks can ship Igawa and cash to some NL team for a UI or BP arm.

I still have a hard-on for Freddy Sanchez as UIF.  The Pirates don’t exactly seem to hold teams hostage.  If I were the FO, I’d pay a decent chunk of the $9-10 owed to Igawa.  Maybe that and a lower level prospect could get it done.

The station overlayed it with the diner scene in When Harry Met Sally, it was appropriate.
The Carnegie Deli is not a diner.

Sorry.  I’m actually pretty sure I’ve never seen the whole movie but only seen parts on TV or Simpsons/etc. parodies

Sorry.  I’m actually pretty sure I’ve never seen the whole movie but only seen parts on TV or Simpsons/etc. parodies.

NP, just playin’.

I was just going to ask that #32….The reason that Joba’s only going 5-6 innings per start is that his innings are so long.

Counter-intuitively, I think that Joba’s struggles this season may encourage the Yankees to lift the innings cap this season.  I know it’s SSS, he’s coming off an injury, he’s very young, etc etc etc.  But, I would believe that the FO is slightly less bullish on him this year than they were a year ago.  That being said, they might be a little less interested in over-protecting him.

If the difference between making the playoffs and not is an extra 20 innings of Joba pitching (even at a #3 level quality), I think the Yankees might push forward, knowing full well that that might increase the chances of him getting hurt.  Combined with IPK/Wang being out this year, and a renewed confidence in Hughes (as a 2010 starter), Joba’s 2009 might have more value than his 2010.

If Joba had been lights out this year, I think the innings cap would have remained hard as the Yankees would want to protect their “future ace”.  But I’m not sure if that’s how they feel right now.

As for the playoffs, I would put Joba next to CC in the rotation.  With CC, you are going to get innings, and thus a rested bullpen.  You could then get away with Joba going 5 innings.  Then there would be a travel day before AJ pitched.

I think by the time October rolls around, Pettitte will have removed himself from the running as to whether he should be starting a playoff game (at least in the ALDS).

I was listening to Vin Scully last night. 

Now I feel like a small child.  “Mom, why can’t we have Vin Scully instead of John Sterling?  MOOOOOM?!?!?!”

I would believe that the FO is slightly less bullish on him this year than they were a year ago.  That being said, they might be a little less interested in over-protecting him.

I doubt it. But, if they want Joba in the post season rotation, do they move him into the BP early to save innings? And just as importantly, do they replace him with Hughes? *continues to beat horse*

Olney says Holliday deal is done.  Cards send A’s third baseman Brett Wallace, outfielder Shane Peterson and right-handed pitcher Clayton Mortensen, none of whom I’ve ever heard of.  A’s send Cards $1.5M cash.

As for pitchers, I don’t think Lee or any Washburn-level guys get moved before the deadline, because nobody’s going to want to deal for a non-Halladay pitcher until the Halladay thing is settled.  OTOH, I do think that lots of pitchers will clear waivers and could get dealt in August.

if they want Joba in the post season rotation, do they move him into the BP early to save innings?

But, but, but then they’d have to stretch him out again!

Washburn scares me.  I worry that he really is the same guy he was last year, it’s just that the M’s have gone from a poor OF defense to an absolutely excellent one.  That, and maybe a touch of real improvement, and there ya go.  Now move him to YS II and give him a so-so OF defense and… BOOM.

They do need another starter, just for flexibility if nothing else. If you want Joba in the postseason rotation you’ll need to to skip him some down the stretch. If you want him in the pen for the playoffs with Hughes and Aceves, you’ll need someone after Andy, and if Andy breaks down…

[43] I agree. and I have little faith in Andy. Because of injuries the Yankees really have no AAA rotation to speak of. It is made up of primarily former Major Leaguers and Ivan Nova. Their fifth starter is a reliever. If the Yankees believe in Nova then maybe they don’t go out and look for a deal. But Nova just made it up to AAA several weeks ago.

Also, I’m fearful for Wang.

I’m currently watching Rush Hour 3 in French. I understand about 5 words of French. I think it may be better this way.

The Carnegie Deli is not a diner.

It was Katz’s, not the Carnegie!  I wouldn’t mention it except that Katz’s is twice as good.

Broadway Danny Rose was filmed in the Carnegie.  Interestingly, it’s twice as good a movie as When Harry Met Sally.

Olney says Holliday deal is done.  Cards send A’s third baseman Brett Wallace, outfielder Shane Peterson and right-handed pitcher Clayton Mortensen, none of whom I’ve ever heard of.  A’s send Cards $1.5M cash.

Good news! Oakland should be easier to beat the next couple of days.

[42] -  That was my feeling too.  Looking at his stats though, it does seem Washburn’s gotten a little better, even independant of his defense.  His K’s are up a tick, the BB’s are down a tick, so the K/BB is noticeably improved.  The HR/9 is also down significantly. His FIP is a full run lower.  I don’t know.  I was totally against trying to get him last year, but now I think I might be able to be convinced it’s not really dumb.

I think by the time October rolls around, Pettitte will have removed himself from the running as to whether he should be starting a playoff game (at least in the ALDS).

They do need another starter, just for flexibility if nothing else. If you want Joba in the postseason rotation you’ll need to to skip him some down the stretch. If you want him in the pen for the playoffs with Hughes and Aceves, you’ll need someone after Andy, and if Andy breaks down…

What I’d really dig is for Marte to come back strong and Melancon to start dominating (of course he’ll need to get into a game first)—he has the stuff to be Joba ‘07ish.  Then, Aceves could become your starting depth (on the assumption that nothing will compel them to remove Hughes from his current role).

In the alternative, what about trading for a reliever instead?  Is there any scuttlebutt on Chad Qualls?  His K/BB ratio is to die for.

It was Katz’s, not the Carnegie!

You sure?  In any case, Katz’s isn’t a diner either. : )  And you’re 100% spot-on about B-way Danny Rose.  A much unheralded movie.  One of Woody’s 2 or 3 best IMO.

but he could have a Beltran second half and reestablish all of his value
making it really expensive FA signing for the yanks….

I liked the 4/70 we were talking about earlier.

Olney says Holliday deal is done.  Cards send A’s third baseman Brett Wallace, outfielder Shane Peterson and right-handed pitcher Clayton Mortensen, none of whom I’ve ever heard of.  A’s send Cards $1.5M cash.

Wallace is a pretty good offensive prospect, but his defense is supposedly poor enough that he projects as a 1B in the majors.  I had him projected to hit .299/.358/.442 as a Cardinal this year at age 21, although his MLE to this point is .260/.299/.356.  I never heard of Peterson, but he’s a year younger and I had him projected to hit .248/.313/.341 if he were in the majors.  Never heard of Mortensen either, but had him projected to put up a 5.67 ERA.

Unless there are red flags of any kind (signs of fatigue etc.), I think the Yankees ought to let Joba go through the year uninterrupted. Relying heavily on Verducci’s anecdotal compilation is not a way to operate. My favorite case in point against: Jonathan Tyler Lester.

You sure?

100% sure.  Go into Katz’s, walk about halfway down the room and look to your left; there’s a small sign that points out the table.

(Then order a pastrami on rye—tip the guy and he’ll give you a generous pastrami taste while you wait—and a Dr. Brown’s cream soda.)

But, if they want Joba in the post season rotation, do they move him into the BP early to save innings?

(one of) the problem(s) is that nobody - outside of Cashman/Girardi - knows what his IP limit is.  NYPost is speculating 140 (that was apparently news to Joba and Cashman declined to comment).  Others have speculated 170.  I think last year Cashman said Joba’s innings-limit was *not* including playoffs.  So if his limit is 170 and he isn’t limited for the playoffs, there’s not much of a problem.  Maybe they’ll have to skip him a few times near the end of the year, but that’s it.  If his limit is 140 and that INCLUDES the playoffs, they’ll have to move him into the bullpen soon.  The answer of course is probably somewhere in the middle.

OTOH, I do think that lots of pitchers will clear waivers and could get dealt in August.

I’ve been saying (writing?) for a couple of days I think that’s when Cashman will make a move, if ever.  I glanced over rosters a few days ago and I think there are about a dozen pitchers (not counting Lee and Holliday) that may be available, who would be upgrades (assuming Mitre doesn’t have a career-half) and could likely be had for cheap in terms of prospects.

I was listening to Vin Scully last night.

Now I feel like a small child.  “Mom, why can’t we have Vin Scully instead of John Sterling?  MOOOOOM?!?!?!”

I wonder what Sterling’s decibel frequency chart would look like. Scully would look pretty flat and serene, I think.

Relying heavily on Verducci’s anecdotal compilation is not a way to operate.

I don’t think the Yankees are relying on Verducci’s “evidence”.  I think they believe there is something to the idea of overworking young arms and are trying to guard against it.  They haven’t been very forthcoming with what the limits they are using are, but I doubt they are using Verducci’s.

but he could have a Beltran second half and reestablish all of his value
making it really expensive FA signing for the yanks….

I liked the 4/70 we were talking about earlier.

The package St. Loo sent to Oakland seems big for a 2-month rental.  No idea what their budget is, but I’m guessing they’re going to do everything possible to make it worth Holliday’s while to stay. 

As long as we’re thinking about the winter though, I’d like to see some coin set aside for John Lackey.

“Unless there are red flags of any kind (signs of fatigue etc.), I think the Yankees ought to let Joba go through the year uninterrupted. Relying heavily on Verducci’s anecdotal compilation is not a way to operate. My favorite case in point against: Jonathan Tyler Lester.”

I agree with this.

FWIW, here is FanGraphs take on the Holliday trade.  They’re calling it a (conditional) win for Oakland.

I agree with this.

Remember a couple of things too; even though Verducci doesn’t include MiL innings, maybe they do count.  Lester in 2007 had about 154 combined innings, so he added about 55 (before playoffs).  Joba’s previous high (majors+minors) was 112 innings.  If you add 55 to Joba he’s in the 165-170 range, which they still have to watch.  If they instead go be % increase, he gets up to between 150-155.  I’d imagine the Red Sox had an amount THEY felt comfortable with Lester pitching, and 210 was within that amount.  Doesn’t mean they would have let him go 220 if that was an option.  Joba (who is a year younger than Lester’s 2008) may be allowed a similar increase, which would also mean less total innings.

Personally, I think the Yankees are going to let Joba’s health come first, and find the best way to make it work for making the playoffs this year as well.

100% sure.  Go into Katz’s, walk about halfway down the room and look to your left; there’s a small sign that points out the table.

(Then order a pastrami on rye—tip the guy and he’ll give you a generous pastrami taste while you wait—and a Dr. Brown’s cream soda.)

Is the cheesecake comparable to Carnegie?

I’ve been saying (writing?) for a couple of days I think that’s [August] when Cashman will make a move, if ever. 

Let’s say on August 15 Pettitte is still pitching acceptably and the Yanks are up 6 games on the WC leader, IOW the current state of affairs. 

Does the deal get made then?  At that point you don’t really need the 5th starter to make the playoffs, and you’ve got to figure Pettitte will get every benefit of the doubt in terms of being inserted in the post-season rotation. 

Unless…they envision Joba going to the pen for October.  In which case whomever they acquire better be Game 3-worthy.

Broadway Danny Rose is really good, but that moronic helium tank scene kind of kills it for me.  It’s redeemed by the part where Woody asks the guy what he does, and he grunts, “cement.”

“Personally, I think the Yankees are going to let Joba’s health come first, and find the best way to make it work for making the playoffs this year as well.”

Yes, and if he’s showing signs of fatigue, i.e. lower velocity, deteriorating mechanics, etc., then they back off.

But there is no real evidence that 190 IP is any worse than 170.  In fact I think all the IP caps, pitch counts, etc. are just crutches to let managers/pitching coaches/trainers, etc. not do their jobs.

If Joba is dealing in Sept. (throwing hard, good command, good mechanics), and hits 180 IP, you CAN NOT take him out of the rotation (if there’s a playoff race) or leave him out of the post-season rotation.

At some point Joba has to take the normal risks associated with being a MLB SP.  You can’t let made up, abitrary limits, that have no science behind them, overwhelm winning games.

The team officials have to watch Joba and use their best judgement to decide when he is scuffling and at greater risk.

I don’t think the Yankees are relying on Verducci’s “evidence”.  I think they believe there is something to the idea of overworking young arms and are trying to guard against it.  They haven’t been very forthcoming with what the limits they are using are, but I doubt they are using Verducci’s.

It certainly is possible, but I haven’t seen a single hard study on the subject that has been definitive of any kind. Maybe they have something proprietary.

But the commentary from the Red Sox re: Lester (who was coming back from a far more debilitating disease from anything that Joba has ever had, by the way) was that they put him through every single test throughout the year, and were comfortable letting him get to whatever inning total it came to at the end. I find no patterns in their usage for Lester that would make me doubt it. Since May last year, they have not been overly concerned about either the number of pitches or the number of innings pitched by Lester. And Lester, if anything, has come back stronger this year.

I think that is the sensible approach, and I hope that is what the Yankees are taking with Chamberlain. Check him out medically as often as possible, and base any decision to give him a breather based on those medical opinions. If they are overworking Joba, chances are that it would be revealed during the course of said medical exams, and they can take appropriate decisions.

Remember a couple of things too; even though Verducci doesn’t include MiL innings, maybe they do count.  Lester in 2007 had about 154 combined innings, so he added about 55 (before playoffs).  Joba’s previous high (majors+minors) was 112 innings.  If you add 55 to Joba he’s in the 165-170 range, which they still have to watch.  If they instead go be % increase, he gets up to between 150-155.  I’d imagine the Red Sox had an amount THEY felt comfortable with Lester pitching, and 210 was within that amount.  Doesn’t mean they would have let him go 220 if that was an option.  Joba (who is a year younger than Lester’s 2008) may be allowed a similar increase, which would also mean less total innings.

For what it’s worth, Zips sees him making 11 more starts for the year, and pitching another 58 innings. Currently, he is at 95. Even if he makes 12 @ 6 per, that gets him to 167, which is consistent with your 165-170 range. So, in that sense, I think the numbers you cite is perfectly consistent with letting him go the full course for the rest of the year.

Has anybody checked out Andrew Brackman? What a miserable season he’s having.

The only positive? He can’t possibly get worse.

Sorry.  I’m actually pretty sure I’ve never seen the whole movie but only seen parts on TV or Simpsons/etc. parodies

Nor should you.

I would just note that Lester is sui generis.  There is no book on how to bring a pitcher back from chemotherapy.  He was also a year older last year than Chamberlain is this year, and I suspect that matters to the people who actually make these decisions, even if it doesn’t count with Verducci.  But anyway, Lester had gotten to 150 innings in the minors before he got sick, and got back to that number in 2007 before they turned him loose last year.  Finally, if he breaks down tomorrow or pitches poorly down the stretch this year, you know that there will be people who blame it on that “big jump” in IP last season.  Even though it wasn’t that big a jump and there’s no real basis for the claim.

Has anybody checked out Andrew Brackman? What a miserable season he’s having.

The only positive? He can’t possibly get worse.

Yeah, the lack of results are one thing, he is only recently removed from TJ, but the reasons for the results are more than just TJ remnants. He’s reportedly lost significant velocity on his fastball and his curve is pitiful. He gets a pass this year, but if the stuff and results don’t get markedly better next year… Ouch.

My understanding is that MiL innings _do_ count.  He says, e.g., “their previous professional high”.  I’ve definitely seen it claimed the other way, but I can cite to the above.

I don’t know if a really careful blind study with correct error treatment and all has been done, but:

“In 2005 and ‘06 I found 17 pitchers I defined as at-risk of the YAE. None made it through the next year without an injury or a higher ERA. Ten of them broke down, the most seriously hurt being Francisco Liriano, Gustavo Chacin, Adam Loewen, Scott Mathieson and Anibel Sanchez. Eleven of them had worse ERAs, by an average of about a run and a half. Remember, it’s a general rule; there are exceptions, the superlative Justin Verlander being one.”

Calling this “anecdotal” is a bit unfair, I think.

“Then order a pastrami on rye—tip the guy and he’ll give you a generous pastrami taste while you wait”

So how does one tip the guy?  Hand him a five and ask for a pastrami taste?  That seems like too much, but a dollar might be an insult.

“he is only recently removed from TJ”

At RAB the take seems to be that he’s healthy and accruing innings and that’s all that one needs now - that it’s too much to expect good velocity/stuff - though next year we’ll want to see much better performance.

They do need another starter, just for flexibility if nothing else. If you want Joba in the postseason rotation you’ll need to to skip him some down the stretch. If you want him in the pen for the playoffs with Hughes and Aceves, you’ll need someone after Andy, and if Andy breaks down…

I agree with this.  I said this yesterday, but the pre-season plan included a rotation of CC, a healthy CMW, AJ, Pettitte, and Joba.  With all five of those guys doing their thing, the playoff rotation would be CC, CMW, and AJ, and then the Yankees could let Joba and Andy’s performances determine their roles in a potential post-season.  Now that depth/flexibility is likely gone, and I think they should make a move to get some of it back.

And here’s a question that I’ll probably get crap for.  If Joba can’t be relied upon to go more than 5 or six innings per start, then wouldn’t it be worth considering putting him in the bullpen for the playoffs?  I mean, in a short series, might those five or six innings be better used spread over two or three high leverage situations?  Wouldn’t a dominant bullpen of Mariano, Joba, Hughes, Aceves, Coke, etc. be kind of an interesting tactical arsenal in a short series?

Let’s say, for example, that Wang picked up this year where he left off before he got hurt last year, and Joba performed this year as he has so far.  Wouldn’t a post-season rotation of CC, AJ, Wang, Pettitte with Joba to the bullpen make some sense?

Looking at his stats though, it does seem Washburn’s gotten a little better, even independant of his defense.  His K’s are up a tick, the BB’s are down a tick, so the K/BB is noticeably improved.  The HR/9 is also down significantly. His FIP is a full run lower.  I don’t know.  I was totally against trying to get him last year, but now I think I might be able to be convinced it’s not really dumb.

This can all be summed up with two words - contract year.

Heyman reported (via WFAN) that the Yankees “inquired” about Cliff Lee, but the Indians wanted Hughes or Joba, so the Yankees ended the discussion.

it’s too much to expect good velocity/stuff

Velocity loss is not a usual side effect of TJ. The general rule is velocity = shoulder and elbow = control. I’m unconcerned about the hits and walks, but Brackman throwing his fastballs in the high 80s when we has been billing in the mid to high 90s is certainly troubling.

That being said I’m inclined to agree with the RAB guys about not caring too much about this year.

At RAB the take seems to be that he’s healthy and accruing innings and that’s all that one needs now - that it’s too much to expect good velocity/stuff - though next year we’ll want to see much better performance.

Dave Cameron I guess took his outing in and said in the first he was 90-92 with his FB, and it got worse.  Chances are it is mostly still gaining arm-strength/stamina.  Though of course it could be that the surgery has robbed him of his main weapon (high-90’s fastball).  Next year is a big one.

And here’s a question that I’ll probably get crap for.  If Joba can’t be relied upon to go more than 5 or six innings per start, then wouldn’t it be worth considering putting him in the bullpen for the playoffs? 

I think it’s worth putting him in the bullpen regardless of how many innings he is going, if at the time he is the team’s 4th best (or 5th after the first round) starter.  If it is a tie I’d give the tie to Pettitte for example; Joba is probably worth more in the pen than Pettitte, so if they are equal as starters…

Who the fuck goes to Katz’s and gets a cheesesteak? Order a god damn pastrami or corned beef sandwich, or else take that shit to Philadelphia

Let’s say, for example, that Wang picked up this year where he left off before he got hurt last year, and Joba performed this year as he has so far.  Wouldn’t a post-season rotation of CC, AJ, Wang, Pettitte with Joba to the bullpen make some sense?

Maybe, but Wang is out of the picture.  Hypothetical exercises are great, but only if the hypothetical has a chance of coming true.  If Wang is getting a referral to Dr. Andrews, I’m thinking his season is done, TJ or no TJ.  Therefore, any thought process involving Wang in the rotation isn’t worth the time.

If the Yanks can’t pull off a reasonable trade for a SP, then maybe pick up a BP arm that’s been dependable this year and put Hughes in the rotation.  Either way, I think the Yanks, sooner or later, will have to address their rotation depth this year.

If Wang is getting a referral to Dr. Andrews, I’m thinking his season is done, TJ or no TJ

if only it were TJ. Wang has shoulder issue which are far more scary. I’m legitimately worried we’ve seen the last of Wang.

You can’t let made up, abitrary limits, that have no science behind them, overwhelm winning games.

Again, you’re taking it as the “Verducci Rule”.  Gets a lot of press, because Verducci is a respected baseball writer (re: hack) and other writers I think flock to him.  That does NOT mean that the idea is baseless.  That also doesn’t mean that the YANKEES haven’t done some hard scientific studies that they aren’t revealing.  Which would also mean the limits aren’t arbitrary.

Calling this “anecdotal” is a bit unfair, I think.

Somebody (Neyer?) reviewed that a while ago, and debunked it.  Some of the players with injuries had injuries that in no way could be explained by overuse.  E.g. leg injuries running the bases or somesuch.  Also I think using ERA was proved bad (as we know it is), as some of the pitchers cited whose ERA increased actually had a stable FIP.

Personally, I don’t doubt that you CAN overwork a young pitcher, and you SHOULD bring them along gradually.  But as MC mentioned, there is no book, and every pitcher is different.  One-size fits all handling - both over-cautious and throwing caution to the wind - isn’t the way to go.

So how does one tip the guy?

There’s a tip jar on the counter.  As you’re ordering, stuff in two $1 bills.  But make sure he’s looking or you wind up with a George Costanza situation.

“In 2005 and ‘06 I found 17 pitchers I defined as at-risk of the YAE. None made it through the next year without an injury or a higher ERA. Ten of them broke down, the most seriously hurt being Francisco Liriano, Gustavo Chacin, Adam Loewen, Scott Mathieson and Anibel Sanchez. Eleven of them had worse ERAs, by an average of about a run and a half. Remember, it’s a general rule; there are exceptions, the superlative Justin Verlander being one.”

Let’s take the arguments.

1. His sample: It is unclear how his sample was defined? Below age x, making a +30 jump from IP professionally to the next year? How sensitive are his results to each of these sample selection, particularly age and IP cutoff limits?

2. His criteria for adverse events are: “injury or a higher ERA”? Does this even pass the smell test? These are two disparate things likely being affected by different sets of factors.

The hypothesis is: This sample of at-risk pitchers defined by his criteria (jumping 30+ IP from the last year to next) are going to experience an adverse event. Clearly he is implying causality here.

How does this even come close to establishing causality in any meaningful way? I don’t think a College Sophomore would buy this study design, methodology and conclusion.

I can’t label it any better than anecdotal. Sorry.

Who the fuck goes to Katz’s and gets a cheesesteak? Order a god damn pastrami or corned beef sandwich, or else take that shit to Philadelphia

Dude, I said cheesecake.

I miss delis and good pizza.

I think it’s worth putting him in the bullpen regardless of how many innings he is going, if at the time he is the team’s 4th best (or 5th after the first round) starter.  If it is a tie I’d give the tie to Pettitte for example; Joba is probably worth more in the pen than Pettitte, so if they are equal as starters…

Seems like a longshot that Joba would be 5th best come the ALCS.  That would mean they’ve acquired a good starter <i>and<i> Pettitte has clearly outpitched Joba.

I’ve always questioned the “Verducci Rule” for a number of reasons, but mostly because Verducci draws his assumptions from professionally-pitched innings.  Every time I think of that, I think of Ben McDonald, the former Os 1st round pick from LSU, or any of the recent pitchers from Rice.  LSU back then had the reputation that Rice has today - they have great pitching talent but really ride those arms while they have them.

Why don’t those college innings count, especially since the pitchers are younger and still developing?  What if they’ve fatigued their arms?  What if all the pre-professional innings have put them at greater risk to injury?

There are several factors that the Verducci Rule doesn’t account for, but previous non-professional workload is one of them.

Who the farns goes to Katz’s and gets a cheesesteak? Order a Mo-damn pastrami or corned beef sandwich, or else take that berroa to Philadelphia

[73]“And here’s a question that I’ll probably get crap for.  If Joba can’t be relied upon to go more than 5 or six innings per start, then wouldn’t it be worth considering putting him in the bullpen for the playoffs?  I mean, in a short series, might those five or six innings be better used spread over two or three high leverage situations? “

No.  I think the 5-6 IP start is actually much less an issue in the playoffs.

With all the off-days, and only 4 starters, you’ve got plenty of arms in the pen in the postseason.

A Joba start of 110 pitches, 5 1/3 IP and 2 R is much more valuable than 7 IP and 4 R from Pettitte or a 4th starter we’d trade for.

That’s exactly what I was thinking [re] 5-6 IP in the playoffs.  You’re not going to tire your best relievers out if they have to pitch 1 inning a game with those off-days.

If the 6th-8th innings in the playoffs can be filled by some combination of Aceves, Coke, and Hughes (with contributions from Bruney and even Melancon and Robertson, if they can somehow get enough regular work to develop their command and confidence), a solid five (or six) inning contribution from Joba would work.

Let’s remember that Joba went to Andrews last year too.

That being said, I’ve always felt Wang was on borrowed time physically.  He’s had a rotator cuff tear that he’s been pitching through since 2005, and it was bound to become a problem at some point.

Does A-Rod get one of the weekend games off? 

If so tonight would make the most sense.  Jorge will sit Sat. (day game after night), so you’ll want Alex in then, and you’ll want as many bats as possible in the lineup for Mitre’s start.  Maybe Jorge DH’s Sat. with a lefty going…though Matsui is more than respectable againbst southpaws.

A Joba start of 110 pitches, 5 1/3 IP and 2 R is much more valuable than 7 IP and 4 R from Pettitte or a 4th starter we’d trade for.

I’d definitely agree with this.  In the playoffs with the extra days of rest you can get more innings out of your best relievers.  If the bullpen is Mo, Hughes, Coke, Aceves, etc., 5 IP and 2 R gives you a much better chance to win than 7 IP and 4 R.

I still think people are writing off Pettitte too soon BTW.  He’s always been streaky, I still think he has some good pitching left in him.

I’ve always felt Wang was on borrowed time physically. 

Guess the decision to go year-to-year on CMW (no LT deal) looking pretty good about now.

“I still think people are writing off Pettitte too soon BTW.  He’s always been streaky, I still think he has some good pitching left in him.”

I agree with that also.  he’ll be a fine #4 in the playoffs.

I’ve always felt Wang was on borrowed time physically.  He’s had a rotator cuff tear that he’s been pitching through since 2005, and it was bound to become a problem at some point.

I’ve always though that he was going to be moved at some point. Not sure why just a feeling.

the important stuff:

So how does one tip the guy?  Hand him a five and ask for a pastrami taste?  That seems like too much, but a dollar might be an insult.

Yeah, it was stated above but make sure to MAKE EYE CONTACT. keep the bills coming. It will end up being a $20 sandwich but will feed two people.

Cheesecake is not an acceptable dessert at Katz’s, and I’m not sure about Carnegie either. Actually, I think the Carnegie deli is only for tourists at this point. Anyway, if you want cheesecake, THE ONLY PLACE in NYC to get it at S+S in the Bronx, preferably before a Yankee game.

You’re welcome.

The not so important stuff:

Are you guys really so hi on Lackey? The dude is 30 with a 102 ERA+ this year. I’m not saying he won’t be ten percent better than league the next five years, but I would rather save coin for a top flight guy and make do with

CC
AJ
Joba
Hughes
(ACE/IPK/ whoever Melky turns into)

2010 free agents at a cursory glance that may be better than lackey depending on price/years:

Washburn (much cheaper, maybe the same going forward)
Webb ( may have been extended, not sure)
Harden (same)
Lee (same again)
Duchscherer (if healthy)

and that’s not to mention Snack Pontoon and The Pavano!

Are you guys really so hi on Lackey? The dude is 30 with a 102 ERA+ this year. I’m not saying he won’t be ten percent better than league the next five years, but I would rather save coin for a top flight guy and make do with

I like Lackey, but he’s probably not someone I’d go after.  Still, his 102 ERA+ this year masks a 3.71 FIP and he’s been pretty solid over the last four years.

Yanks should save their coin and go after Halladay in 2011.  Sounds like he’s going to test the market even if he gets traded.

The cheesecake at Carnegie is highly acclaimed and pretty outstanding but whatevs

Are you guys really so hi on Lackey?

I think I was the only one who mentioned him.  Depends on how much coin exactly.  I wouldn’t go beyond 3 years.  Maybe that’s not enough.  I don’t think this year is indicative of his stuff, though it’s possible this is the beginning of a decline. 

Washburn: buyer beware…contract year performance as someone mentioned…someone will overpay…and he’s 4 yrs older than Lackey.

Webb: $8.5m option, which I would imagine Ariz will pick up despite the lost season.

Harden: total roll of the dice as far as health goes.

Lee: $8m option, which strikes me as a no-brainer for Cleve. 

Duchschererererer: hasn’t thrown a single pitch this year.

Aceves as #5 works for me.  But I think they’ll get all jittery and not want to leave the pen without both Hughes and Aceves.