[95] Cano’s a good hitter on a team of excellent hitters.

He’s between the 8th and 10th best offensive player on the team right now, depending on what you think are Melky and Gardner’s true talent levels.

In a crucial AB with men on base, he’s a clear tenth, to me.  Maybe 11th depending on what Hinske looks like.

Isn’t one of the fundamental laws of regression though is that the invidividual will regress to the mean over time?

That’s if the situations are roughly equivalent.  There are distinct differences between bases empty and RISP. 

That’s for a season, so you can’t apply that to what he’s done for his career.

I’d agree if we were looking at the whole career arc of a player, but Cano is still young, and his “natural ability” probably hasn’t changed much. Even still, you could look at each of his individual seasons and get reasonably close to the 350 PA, and each one shows the same thing.  He underperforms with RISP.  Even in his great 2007 season, his RISP OPS was 15% worse than his overall line.

The whole point I was trying to make in that argument is that 3 weeks does not equal 9 weeks when it comes to needing to stretch someone out to start again.

Yes, that’s why I wanted to point it out to make sure I was clear.  I didn’t want to restart the argument and I know it is something you hate seeing.

In a crucial AB with men on base, he’s a clear tenth, to me.  Maybe 11th depending on what Hinske looks like.

So you should PH for him right?

Here’s an old - like 10 years old - Neyer article on clutch-hitting.  Unfortunately, I have to wrap up work and get home so I can’t spend as much time as I would like looking for more arguments.

Perhaps, but as I said that was just the first hit I got on Google.  Isn’t one of the fundamental laws of regression though is that the invidividual will regress to the mean over time?  So if on average hitters hit just as well w/ RISP as bases empty, shouldn’t Cano regress to that as well?  Again, perhaps he is a unique individual.  Or perhaps we’re just overthinking this to try to explain why the Yanks are 2nd in runs scored instead of first.

Yes, assuming that any differences between w/RISP and wo/RISP is due to random statistical fluctuations and do not reflect any differences about individual talent levels in two different situations. If the difference is statistically significant over time, then the underlying null hypothesis is false that they are identical. That is where I believe scouting is important. What are his habits in these two situations? Is the latter more conducive to falling back into bad habits of trying to hit anything that comes in his direction with regard to Cano? Is he being as selective with pitches as he is in other circumstances?

Also, the WSJ article I cited above could speak to why players may find it hard to focus in high pressure situations, even though they are unlikely to admit it. That may make them different players in different circumstances.

There are distinct differences between bases empty and RISP.

Sure.  But if the general population hits .750 OPS (just making numbers up) w/ bases empty and .745 w/ RISP, doesn’t that show that they really aren’t that different?

Also, the WSJ article I cited above could speak to why players may find it hard to focus in high pressure situations, even though they are unlikely to admit it. That may make them different players in different circumstances.

In the Neyer article I linked he takes on that (or a similar) argument in a different manner.  That for the most part for a player to reach the majors he HAS to be able to succeed in high pressure situations.  Using an anology, to fly a plane you need a certain set of skills.  To be a fighter-pilot, in addition to those skills you need to thrive in high-pressure situations.  Minor leaguers are pilots.  Major Leagures are fighter pilots.

Again, maybe Cano has a disorder that causes him to be anxious w/ RISP.  If so I’d rather he go on the DL and get counseling than move down to 9th in the lineup.

[103] “So you should PH for him right?”

I would, if I had a clearly better player on the bench.

If Matsui, Posada, Swisher, Damon, any of the “big 7” is on the bench and Cano comes up with men on base in a late, crucial spot I definitely pinch hit.

With Melky, Hinske and Gardner, the talent gap isn’t clear enough, yet.

This Bergesen fellow seems like a pretty decent pitcher.  Maybe he should pitch teh ate.  Oh, wait, he just did.

“I definitely pinch hit.”

We should trade him asap in that case.

By this reasoning we should pinch-hit him for Jeter late if there’s no one on.

I’d really want to understand his BABIP difference with RISP before moving him.  Also I’d want to compare hot vs cold periods.

“Maybe he should pitch teh ate.”

Maybe he should pitch the ninth.

Dang.

Nice AB, David Ortiz

[110] “We should trade him asap in that case.

By this reasoning we should pinch-hit him for Jeter late if there’s no one on.”

I’m not basing it solely on the BA w/RISP.  He’s clearly no better than the 8th best hitter on the team.

If one of the 7 clearly better hitter is available in a crucial spot, why wouldn’t you pinch hit?

I also wouldn’t mind trading him, but it’s not urgent.  I think he’s gotten lackadaisical since he got the big money deal.  He hasn’t improved a bit.

Posada batting 5th, Cano 6th(because of a lefty pitching?), and Ransom playing 3b(not Hinske?) that I don’t get.

The Orioles really know how to kill their own momentum.  George Sherrill for Rolaids Relief Man

If Hinske has a negative split against lefties maybe Arod should DH or rest against righties.

Oh, good, the Cano is “lacksadaisical” argument resurfaces.  The fact that he’s in the bottom tier of Yankees hitters might have more to do with, say, how ridiculous their “A” lineup is.  The Yankees have 10 hitters with OPS+ over 100!

I can’t imagine the feeling of handing your bullpen a lead where they only have to get one out for every run they give up, and have them fail in that task.

[118] - I agree. I want him as the Yanks 2B.  I just think that the team could be better if he was used in a different manner.  He’s a great hitter for a 2B.  To me, there is sufficient evidence that indicates he underperforms with men on base, and that this is something that will most likely continue into the foreseeable future.

Eh, don’t worry all - Cano will go on a ridiculous hot streak and we’ll all shut up anyway.

Regarding lineup construction: I’ve always liked alternating lefty-righty in order to neutralize the late inning loogy/roogy smackdown.  But that’s totally POOMA…who knows if there’s any real benefit?

Bay strikes out for the sixth consecutive time, counting yesterday.

Four K’s in a game is the Golden Sombrero, right?  What’s five?  The Peptol Foam Dome?

Platinum Sombrero.

I would argue that it is considerably less dramatic than all the angst about the dire consequences of Hughes being limited to 170 or so innings in 2010.

So it wouldn’t concern you at all penciling Hughes into the 2010 rotation when he hasn’t gone a full season as a starter without injury since 2006 when he threw 146 IP?

You also didn’t address why there is such a need to do it?  The bullpen right now has 5 quality arms right now, 4 of them RHP.  If they are going to stunt the development of a guy we are all counting on to be a full time member of the rotation in 2010 shouldn’t there at least be a huge need for it?  Is the difference between Hughes pitching the 8th and Aceves/Bruney pitching the 8th large enough to justify it?  IE is it worth the difference of 5 starts in 2010 between Hughes and whomever is the replacement level pitcher for the Yankees in 2010?  Without actually going trough the number I think that it is highly unlikely.

“I think he’s gotten lackadaisical since he got the big money deal.  He hasn’t improved a bit.”

This is flat wrong.  His K rate and BB/K are career highs, for example.  His ISO is just what it was before.  What’s low this year is his BABIP.

“If they are going to stunt the development”

You can’t take this as a given.

“Is the difference between Hughes pitching the 8th and Aceves/Bruney pitching the 8th large enough to justify it?”

This is not the relevant comparison - it’s more Hughes vs Edwar.  For that matter I’m not entirely ready to count on Bruney.

Also note that Hughes may well start when Joba is done, and of course he can pitch winter ball to increase his innings as before.

RS 6-5.  Papelbon in, one out already.

Re: Hughes, I think it’s also a fair argument that his working out of the bullpen - in the majors - will be good for his development as a pitcher.

Stupid Orioles.

So it wouldn’t concern you at all penciling Hughes into the 2010 rotation when he hasn’t gone a full season as a starter without injury since 2006 when he threw 146 IP?

Joba is pencilled in for (under similar circumstances) this year, and no one is sweating it.

You also didn’t address why there is such a need to do it?

The Yankees are looking up at the Red Sox and are competing for a wild card spot not enough to put your best product forward?

If Hughes does a good enough job that it allows the rest of the bullpen to stay in their comfort zone, and most importantly not force Mo to be used when teh ate guy does something shaky, cool.

The Orioles giveth, and the Orioles taketh away.

This is not the relevant comparison - it’s more Hughes vs Edwar.

I was trying to be fair to your side.  To get a true measure of Hughes value you’d need to plug him into his spot in the bullpen and compare the differences from that spot down while including a leverage adjustment. 

If you are just going to give him the fewest number of innings that are also the lowest leverage innings that that isn’t a fair assessment of his value in the bullpen.

If Hughes does a good enough job that it allows the rest of the bullpen to stay in their comfort zone, and most importantly not force Mo to be used when teh ate guy does something shaky, cool.

I don’t see that as a real concern.  As it is now Aceves hasn’t pitched since Thursday.  Robertson and Hughes haven’t been used much in the last week either.  It’s not like people are getting overworked because there is a lack of options.

So it wouldn’t concern you at all penciling Hughes into the 2010 rotation when he hasn’t gone a full season as a starter without injury since 2006 when he threw 146 IP?

Wouldn’t the idea of him going from an injury-plagued 70 IP season all the way up to 170 this year bother you?

You also didn’t address why there is such a need to do it?

First of all, I never said there was a need to do it.  I’m just talking about the fact that they are doing it, and arguing that it’s not nearly the horrible thing that it’s being made out to be.  But if I did want to argue for a need, it’d be pretty easy: you over-rate some of the rest of the pen.  If we’ve learned anything over the past couple of years, it should be that the reason you stockpile quality arms is that they don’t all come attached to quality pitchers.  Besides, Tomko is still out there.

IE is it worth the difference of 5 starts in 2010 between Hughes and whomever is the replacement level pitcher for the Yankees in 2010?  Without actually going trough the number I think that it is highly unlikely.

We sort of went through it a couple of days ago, and it came out pretty darned close.  And those five extra starts in 2010 could come in the context of the rest of the team falling apart due to guys getting hurt or falling off cliffs.  We have a pretty good idea that the value of a marginal win this year is going to be very high.  We have no clue what it’s going to be in 2010.

“I was trying to be fair to your side.”

I’m confused - the comparison is Hughes in the minors vs Edwar in the majors, isn’t it?  Certainly Hughes will get higher leverage, but that can only be controlled in an ideal world.  People need regular work.

As for sides, I think my last value judgement on this issue was approximately, “I don’t care either way”.  I’m happy to disagree with arguments I find faulty however I feel about the overall discussion.

I’m happy to disagree with arguments I find faulty however I feel about the overall discussion.

Typical academic.  Take a side, dammit!

“Typical academic.  Take a side, dammit!”

Oh, we take sides.  Fights in the academy are supposedly the most vicious.

Fights in the academy are supposedly the most vicious.

Precisely because the stakes are so low.  At least according to Dr. Kissinger.

Anyway, I know academics take sides.  I used to be one.  Sort of still am.  It’s the taking of both sides at the same time that is somewhat less prevalent outside of the academy.

Ah yes.  Actually this is a poetic trait - negative capability.

We have a pretty good idea that the value of a marginal win this year is going to be very high.  We have no clue what it’s going to be in 2010.

I guess this is where we disagree fundamentally, for a few reasons.

a) We don’t know a win will be worth more this year than it will next year.  A-Rod, Teix and C.C. can all go down in the beginning of September killing any chances of winning it all.

b) I don’t like thinking only for now and worrying about the future in the future.  It was those kinds of one year band-aid type fixes that have let other teams catch up to the Yankees over the last 9 years.  (I’m looking at you Beltran over RJ).  If you borrow two wins from 2010 then you just made you job that much harder next year. 

Joba to the pen in 2007 made much more sense to me.  This I don’t understand especially since right now the bullpen is pitching well and they have 5 good options and a few other possibilities in the minors.  If Hughes was in AAA starting since Wang came back and those 5 options didn’t work out then he can be moved into the pen Joba style without sacrificing his innings limit.

We don’t know a win will be worth more this year than it will next year.

No, we don’t.  But I can tell you with fairly high confidence that the expected value of a win for the remainder of this season is higher than the expected value of a win next season.  With 48% of the season completed, the Yanks are in playoff position, but are only a couple games out of first, and a couple games from being out of playoff position.  Being in this position is pretty much the definition of high marginal value for a win.  Any of the scenarios you could envision for this season could also happen next season, but next season has almost 2x as many games for those things to crop up.

It was those kinds of one year band-aid type fixes that have let other teams catch up to the Yankees over the last 9 years.  (I’m looking at you Beltran over RJ).

Please tell me that you don’t seriously believe there is any comparison between the Johnson vs Beltran decision and the decision to have Hughes pitch out of the bullpen this season.  I mean, if you really think this is a band-aid type fix that represents the same kind of thinking that led to those poor choices in the past, then there really isn’t any point to discussing this any further.

Stop straw manning.  I never said it was of the same magnitude but yes it is the same kind of thinking.  They are making the team weaker next year to help with this year.  And to do it to help an area that already has 5 good options makes no sense to me.  I know you said

If we’ve learned anything over the past couple of years, it should be that the reason you stockpile quality arms is that they don’t all come attached to quality pitchers.

But I think you need to at least give those 5 pitchers an opportunity to fail and prove the bullpen is a problem once again before you stick Hughes out there with them otherwise you could be borrowing wins from next year’s team for pennies on the dollar (or runs on the win).

I think you need to at least give those 5 pitchers an opportunity to fail and prove the bullpen is a problem once again before you stick Hughes out there with them otherwise you could be borrowing wins from next year’s team for pennies on the dollar (or runs on the win).

If that’s what you think, fine.  But you’re not actually putting forth any kind of support for this position, you are merely asserting it.  The issue here isn’t a philosophical difference, it’s that you haven’t convinced anybody that 1) Hughes in the bullpen is of as little value this year as you think it is, or 2) Hughes in the bullpen this year robs next year’s team of as many innings/wins as you think it does.  IOW, my argument is not that you shouldn’t have the concerns you have; rather it is that you are far more concerned about these issues than is really justified because you are overestimating the magnitude of the negative implications and underestimating the magnitude of the positive benefits.

Stop straw manning

You should talk.  For just one of myriad examples of your own straw man tendencies, see the rest of the post you just snipped.  The sentence preceding the one you quoted makes it pretty clear that the sentence you quoted represents a hypothetical argument that one could make in response to a previous comment from you that was not germane to any point I was actually making previously.  If you’re going to inject Randy Johnson into this conversation, then you forfeit your right to complain about straw men.

Because there is no real way to estimate what Hughes value will be in the bullpen.  He’s pitched exactly 13 innings there, 18.2 if you count the playoffs.  Really it’s been less than 10 innings not counting his semi-start vs. the Red Sox.

But you want numbers, fine.  Using Hughes updated ZIPS projection for 2009 (the only updated projection I could find easily) and Igawa’s ZIPS projection (the current RL starting pitcher for the Yankees) for 2009 Hughes missing somewhere between 50 and 75 innings next year would cost the Yankees between 8.3 and 12.5 runs.

Hughes value in the bullpen (over a replacement level 6th man in the bullpen with a 5.00 ERA) over 30 innings (assuming a 2.5 ERA out of Hughes) is 5 runs.  Half a win.

Pulled completely out of my ass just for you. 

But if you think the difference between this year and next year is minimal (between 3.3 and 7.5 runs) the you have to admit the benefit (5 runs) is equally as minimal.  Personally I’d take my chances without Hughes in the pen this year when currently spotted a 2.5 game lead in the Wild Card.

“between 50 and 75 next year”

That’s way high.  Verducci has him able to pitch 170 this year, which would be 30 less than a very successful season for an uncapped Hughes next year.  He’ll probably get some starts regardless this fall, and there’s winter ball.  The sensible 30 IP delta makes the comparison equal, and a bird in the hand.

And, well, IPK would pitch next in 2010, not Igawa.  Which has the benefit of getting the former valuable experience.  Or maybe it’ll be Nova by then, or ...

170ish this year.  I was assuming he would spend the rest of the season in the bullpen witch would have him finish around 110 this year after only about 70 last year.  Given the 40 pitch increase schedule the Yankees like to stick to that would put Hughes around the 150 - 170 mark depending on how careful they were willing to be.  There is no way to tell exactly how many innings they would let him go so I thought a range would be safer. 

And I had no idea what to pick as a replacement starter for next year but even if you average the difference between 2009 projections for Igawa and IPK (and I honestly have no clue what IPK’s projections would look like now) it’s still about 5 - 7 runs. 

Anyway, I not even against the idea of Hughes to the pen, I just don’t think it makes sense right now.  He should have been in AAA starting this entire time (since Wang came back) and he could have been moved to the pen in September/October Joba style to limit his innings.  So really we are only arguing about a two months when the Yankees seem to have 5 other good options.

And before MC says (again) “how do you know they are good options?” Hughes is no more proven than any of them.  Coke has been just as good as Hughes since he stopped being used as a long reliever, Robertson has been as good since being called up a 2nd time, Aceves has done it over more innings than Hughes, a healthy Bruney has shown what he can do over the last year or so, and I’m not even going to mention Mo.  Yes the sample sizes are small but no smaller than the Hughes in the bullpen sample size.  They could fail (as could Hughes) but let them first before you take a win away from next year. 

Is it a HUGE deal?  Probably not either way but I just don’t like playing games with a 23 year old front of the rotation type talent for very little gain this year and negative long term gain.

He’ll probably get some starts regardless this fall, and there’s winter ball.

I think there is a possibility that the Yankees will skip winter ball for Hughes depending on how the season turns out. If all goes well, and Hughes is around the 110 IP mark, I think they just rest him up for next year.  The Yankees didn’t send Joba to winter ball after going 100 IP in 2008, is part of my reason.

prove the bullpen is a problem once again before you stick Hughes out there with them otherwise you could be borrowing wins from next year’s team for pennies on the dollar (or runs on the win).

They could fail (as could Hughes) but let them first before you take a win away from next year.

I rather reduce the chance of the bullpen failing as much as possible with a slim lead in the wild card, you know.

Anyway, I not even against the idea of Hughes to the pen

I guess we are arguing on very fringe stuff, like you said, using Hughes in longer outings, occasionally 2-3 IPs, probably would make this moot. If Hughes is just ROOGY, which was what Girardi was hinting at when Hughes and Coke were warming in the pen in the 7th, just is kinda eh, especially as Robertson, Bruney, and Aceves was also available.

Is it a HUGE deal?  Probably not either way but I just don’t like playing games with a 23 year old front of the rotation type talent for very little gain this year and negative long term gain.

One of the main things as Cashman came out a while ago and said he thought the move to the bullpen had been good for Hughes’s development, because Hughes was attacking the hitters more.

The main argument you seem to be making is what is best for Hughes (and by extension the Yankees) for his development for next year and beyond.  You’ve been taking the innings approach; he needs to get enough innings this year to pitch a full season next year.  The other approach is from developing his pitching skills, to make him a better PITCHER next year.

Just for kicks we’ll throw out some numbers.  Say if Hughes returns to SWB to get his innings it limits his ability to develop as a pitcher, and in 200 innings next year he would be worth 20 runs (basically, average).  What if instead he stays in the pen, and develops more as a pitcher?  Next year maybe in “only” 170IP he’s worth 25 runs.

I just don’t think it is as clear-cut as getting Hughes innings.  I’ve also said (typed?) before, I still think Hughes will get some starts this year and end up closer to 150IP than 100IP.

My [148]‘s grammar probably wrongly suggests that I’m drunk this early in the day.  =(

wrongly suggests that I’m drunk this early in the day

Who isn’t?

[149] - I can see that argument (there really is no way to argue for or against it) but if that is their reasoning then what about Joba?  I’d say Joba needs just as much development attacking the hitters if not more.

I’d say Joba needs just as much development attacking the hitters if not more.

True.  But Joba started the year in the rotation, and I think it is fair to say he hasn’t lost the spot yet.  Also we’re talking (here anyway) the difference between Hughes starting in the minors or Hughes in the pen in the majors.  Not Hughes starting vs. Joba starting.  At this point I would support that Hughes starting in the majors > Hughes relieving in the majors > Hughes starting in the minors.

But I also think Joba should still be starting in the majors, CC is fine, AJ is rounding into shape, Pettitte is still fine (for a #4), and…Wang.  Right now I’m fine Hughes in pen, Wang in rotation.  Get back to me in August and I’ll let you know if I feel different.

Do you guys hate teh ate? Someone has to pitch there: Hughes or Joba.

Do you guys hate teh ate? Someone has to pitch there: Hughes or Joba.

I think next year they should both pitch the 8th.  Joba can do it starting the 3rd game of the season (and every 5 games after that), Hughes can do it starting the 5th game.  My only stipulation though is they have to pitch the first 7 innings in the game