Yeah I agree with you about Joba.  And I actually agree with Pete Abe as well.  Joba has shown flashes and I know inconsistency is part of young pitching but it really does seem the inconsistent/OK short starts are far too frequent and the good/great starts are few and far between.  I really hope he goes on a run soon.

And I hate to see the “Hughes should pitch the eighth” comments starting.  Hughes should be in AAA or starting over Joba while Joba is in AAA.  How is Hughes going to reach his innings limit now?  He only has two months of season left in AAA?  At this rate he is getting close to having to start the rest of the season in AAA and then some more starts for the Yankees in September in order to reach the 150-175 limit.

Bruney is just struggling with his command, obviously, but whether this is a long term problem or just him struggling to reset himself after some arm problems, I don’t know.  Either way, this is a weird bullpen.  When do you think Hughes and Joba swap places?  Mid-August?

In a similar vein, am I the only one who is getting tired of Michael Kay’s constant fixation on a pitcher’s velocity in general and Joba’s velocity in particular?

Michael, if you’re so concerned with why Joba isn’t throwing 95 mph fastballs every pitch, why not ask him?  Or Eiland.  I mean you do work for the Yankees, technically, I’m sure you can find some interview time.

Paragraph 1: there was nothing but doubt surrounding the Yankees’ bullpen situation.  The sky is falling!!!

Paragraph 2: Instead, he would fit in as just another cog in a sturdy machine. We have sliced bread!!!

Paragraph 3: But in many ways the contest raised more questions than it answered. Who done what, where???

Last night I was less interested that it was teh ate and more interested that Hughes had dominated one inning, throwing nine pitches.  He’s going to be a starter again, right?  Everyone knows it…let him throw two innings, at least.  It was the perfect situation for it.

How is Hughes going to reach his innings limit now?

Why is this so freaking important, when compared to, say, winning games in 2009?  So what if Hughes doesn’t get to 170 or so innings this year?  That just means he’d be limited to 170 or so innings next year, which is not exactly the end of the world.  We criticize managers all the time for not playing to win today’s game; why not give the organization a little credit for playing to win this year?

... the Red Sox blowing a 10-1 seventh inning ...

That’s unpossible.  The Red Sox have teh bestest bullpen in the history of everything.

FWIW, watching the game last night, Posada was calling a lot of two-strike pitches well outside.  He was constantly set up off of the plate with two-strikes on, the M’s weren’t chasing, and he didn’t adjust.

BTW, who got sent down.  The Yanks site list 26 guuys on the active roster, and there’s nothing on the transactions log.

Also, the really big news is that they played a game at the new stadium and nobody hit a HR to RF.

Pena down for Hinske, I believe.

Bruney needs to work in some low-leverage spots until he shows that his command is back.  Until then, Hughes and Aceves are the high-leverage relievers.  What’s cool is that they are both capable of going 2-3 innings.  If Girardi lets them, obviously.

I wonder if he pulled Hughes b/c he’s worried about Pettitte getting knocked out early?

Supposedly, Ramiro Peña is going to be sent to AAA.

As for Bruney, the thing that drove me nuts was that most or all of hits came a) when he was ahead in the count and b) against the bottom of the Mariners lineup.  It’s one thing to get beat by a tough hitter or because you have to throw a strike because you don’t want to walk someone, but to go up 0-2, with his stuff, and give up hits was infuriating.

Why is this so freaking important, when compared to, say, winning games in 2009?

Personally, I’d like to see the Yankees in the playoffs in 2010.  I’d like to see Hughes in the rotation as part of that and I don’t want to see Hughes and Jobber shut down in late August or September 2010 because they hit their innings limits.  Or the converse of having Hughes and Jobber throw 220 IP through October 2010 and then lose one or both to arm/shoulder problems in 2011.

am I the only one who is getting tired of Michael Kay’s constant fixation on a pitcher’s velocity in general and Joba’s velocity in particular?

What bothers me is that they fixate on velocity based on the YES Network radar gun, which seems to be inconsistent and inaccurate, often inaccurate on the SLOW side.  So often they’ll be worrying about some pitcher’s velocity being down, when it’s just the crappy YES Network readings.  Then this potentially false concern gets passed on to the pitchers and manager in the post-game…

but it really does seem the inconsistent/OK short starts are far too frequent and the good/great starts are few and far between.  I really hope he goes on a run soon.

Joba’s got the second best ERA among the starters on the team.  Of course he could go longer in some games, but this idea that he’s a major concern on this team is kind of absurd to me.  An ERA in the high 3’s while pitching half his games in NYS is quite good.  He’s an adjustment or two away from being an ace starter at age 23.  This seems like a perfectly normal development process for a young pitcher.  Most young pitchers have ups and downs and things to work out.  Not everyone is Tim Lincecum.  Think about Zach Greinke, Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez.  A little patience.

Hughes maybe should not pitch teh 8th every night, but he should have pitched the 8th last night, IMHO.

I was looking at Papelschwanz’s numbers vs. Mo.  Pappyslappy has a great ERA compared to Mo, but last time I checked, Mo had shoulder surgery and is 60 years old.  Two numbers of note though: Pap - K/BB ratio 2.06, WHIP 1.35; Mo - K/BB ratio 13.00, WHIP 1.01.

SAS, stop being so reasonable!  A-Roid!  No small ball!  Teh ate!  Teh AAAATE!

Bruney is just struggling with his command, obviously, but whether this is a long term problem or just him struggling to reset himself after some arm problems, I don’t know.

Maybe it’s because he’s Brian Bruney and that’s what Brian Bruney does. He has stretches where he has good command and is dominant and stretches where he doesn’t know where the ball is going. It has ever been thus, for he is Brian Bruney.

Girardi is not a good manager.  He does stupid things like bunt in dumb spots and overmanage the bullpen.  Three things that stand out as being bad moves:

-Not putting Posada in for Cervelli late in a close game with the bases loaded on Friday.
-Hughes should have pitched the 8th on Sunday
-Hughes should have pitched the 8th yesterday.

If a guy is on a roll keep it going.  Hughes threw 9 pitches in the 7th- if he ended up throwing 25 pitches in 2 innings is that any more straining that 25 pitches in one inning?

Personally, I’d like to see the Yankees in the playoffs in 2010.  I’d like to see Hughes in the rotation as part of that and I don’t want to see Hughes and Jobber shut down in late August or September 2010 because they hit their innings limits.  Or the converse of having Hughes and Jobber throw 220 IP through October 2010 and then lose one or both to arm/shoulder problems in 2011.

I’ll worry more about 2010 when the I have to put up the new calender. If the Yankees don’t make the playoff this year, which at the moment ain’t no guarantee, that would be, uh, bad.

And if a pitcher gets arm/shoulder problems, that happens. It won’t necessarily be because of usage, especially as the Yankees have been careful with both.

I do think if Hughes stays mostly in the bullpen, his IP limit next year might be a bit less than 170 IP, if FO stick to that 30-40 IP incremental hikes, as this year, it’ll probably top 110-120 IP.

RE [35]:  I think the decision to play ARod for 35 straight days after hip surgery is a much bigger knock on Girardi’s managerial abilities…especially considering the bazillion dollars the Yankees have invested in the guy.

In today’s NY Times Cash is asked whether he’s sending Hughes down to AAA for more innings asnd he says (I paraphrase, lazily): How could I look Mariano Rivera in the eyes and tell him I just weakened his bullpen?

Hey, we’re all afraid of the wrath of the gods.  They carry lightening bolts, after all.

I was looking at Papelschwanz’s numbers vs. Mo.

Also of note: Paplebon has 2 multiple inning appearences, and only 3 times has he entered the game with runners on base (including last night).  Mo has 6 of each.  And he’s 60.

[18] Did the NY Times ask Cash why Hughes can’t go 2 innings?  Or whether that was discussed between Cashman and Girardi?

-Hughes should have pitched the 8th on Sunday
-Hughes should have pitched the 8th yesterday.

I don’t much care for the use of Hughes as a one inning reliever either, but like I asked in an earlier thread: am I the only one who thinks there may be some “Hughes rules” involved here, except without the manager spilling them to the press as Torre did in the case of the Joba rules?

I do think if Hughes stays mostly in the bullpen, his IP limit next year might be a bit less than 170 IP, if FO stick to that 30-40 IP incremental hikes, as this year, it’ll probably top 110-120 IP.

Of course, that would imply that his target is also less than 170 this year.  Yet lots of folks are claiming 170-180 has been as good as confirmed by organizational poohbahs.  I don’t think we really have any way of actually knowing what the plan was or is or will be.

am I the only one who thinks there may be some “Hughes rules” involved here, except without the manager spilling them to the press as Torre did in the case of the Joba rules?

No.  But we need to blame Girardi for as many things as possible, since the Yankees haven’t won 60 games yet.

Yet lots of folks are claiming 170-180 has been as good as confirmed by organizational poohbahs.  I don’t think we really have any way of actually knowing what the plan was or is or will be.

I think the only thing that I ever saw that was even semi-official is Hughes on his blog in the off-season stated he would like to get around 175IP this year.  I believe he also admitted that was just what he was hoping for.  The other way they come up with the 170-180 IP limit is the fact his previous high in a year was (I believe) 146IP.

Hughes won’t be in the pen all year.  Or at least, he WILL be getting some starts.  They’ll skip Joba once or twice.  Someone will get an injury, or be ineffective.  There will be a double-header in a stretch w/ no off-days.  Etc.  I don’t know if he could throw 100 pitches right out of the gate, but he could probably do 75 in a pinch, and be up to 90-100 next time.  He’ll probably finish the year w/ about 140IP or so.

I’m not sure how I feel about the baby gloves with Hughes so far.  However, I don’t think the PTB are content on having him pitch one inning in each appearance.  This may be more of a confidence building thing.
I’m guessing that right after the all-star break, the team is going to make some evaluations in terms of pitching roles.  If Wang get’s hammered in his next two starts (next one against Halliday on Sat.) there may be a push to put him back in the pen and slot Hughes back into the rotation.
I doubt they will flip Joba and Phil at this point but who knows.  If Joba continues to put tons of guys on base, they may just do that.

[21] I agree with you about not knowing what the target is this year, or next year. But the FO has been more or less conservative, a combination of incremental work load, guts, psychic hotline, scouts, Girardi, pitching coach, etc.

And also, I don’t care about the IP cap until the problem rears its head. Joba supposedly has a lower IP cap, and it ain’t like he’s throwing complete game shut outs.

Re: Hughes and his limits, my understanding is it’s at the very least higher than his previous career high of 146.  If they don’t get to say 170 this year, that should probably be something that can be achieved next year, regardless of how many he actually throws this year.  While I want the Yankees to have Hughes as a full-time starter in 2010, as long as they are not entertaining the notion of turning Hughes into a full-time reliever, I’ve come around to the idea that he helps best in the pen in 2009.  And winning in 2009 should be the team’s top priority right now, although certainly balanced with a long-term view.

Honestly, I’d love to see Hughes in a Mo ‘96 type of usage pattern.  Fewer games, but longer outings.  I think a higher frequency of one inning outings is no less stressful than fewer longer outings, even if you end up with more innings in the second scenario.

Honestly, I’d love to see Hughes in a Mo ‘96 type of usage pattern.

And Girardi was there, so he knows how it works.

I’d like to point out (and hopefully not jinx) that the pitching staff has been remarkably healthy this season with the exception of Wang.  If this continues, we’ll be very fortunate. If it doesn’t, Hughes will get his innings.

If this continues, we’ll be very fortunate. If it doesn’t, Hughes will get his innings.

Yeah, it’s nice to think it, but there’s little reason to expect that any of AJ, Pettitte, Wang or Joba are going to make all the rest of their starts this year…

“Honestly, I’d love to see Hughes in a Mo ‘96 type of usage pattern.  Fewer games, but longer outings.  I think a higher frequency of one inning outings is no less stressful than fewer longer outings, even if you end up with more innings in the second scenario.”

I totally agree SG. Right now, he’s the best pitcher in the bullpen to get to Mo.  Bruney needs to earn the right to pitch the 8th after being gone so long. Pete A. sums it up pretty well in one of his posts today. Manager’s often fear being second guessed by the press so they assign roles. He says it’s a common practice.

As to sending Hughes to the minors and taking a longer view to get to the postseason, I can only respond by saying this. If you play for 2010 or 2011, the risks are that there are a lot of guys who can play effectively right now that may not be able to repeat their performance next year due to age or contract status.  If a team has a nucleus now that is able to compete, why would you not give it every chance to succeed. There are degrees of course to everything, but for some teams like Pittsburgh, KC and others, tommorrow never seems to arrive. I’ve said this before, but too many young Yankee fans don’t fully appreciate what Don Mattingly learned the long hard way. Getting to the post-season is a pretty difficult accomplishment all by itself. 

Oh, by the way, I didn’t realize it until yesterday that our old manager now has his team with the best record in baseball. He must be doing something right.

Oh, by the way, I didn’t realize it until yesterday that our old manager now has his team with the best record in baseball. He must be doing something right.

Yeah, I’m sure that being in the crappy NL West and having Billingsly, Kershaw, Ethier, Camp, Martin, Loney, etc helps a bit too.

Yeah, it’s nice to think it, but there’s little reason to expect that any of AJ, Pettitte, Wang or Joba are going to make all the rest of their starts this year…

I think that’s the point.  Either we’ll be extremely healthy (and effective) with our starters, meaning we’ll be in good shape.  Or (at least one) will miss time with injury/ineffectiveness and we’ll *instead* get Hughes starting, and we’ll be in good shape.  Basically, we’ll be in good shape.

I agree with MC in that the Yanks should be focused on winning in 2009 and worrying less about these innings limits (which IMHO are getting a little too much hype).

The Yanks have a huge payroll and a new stadium.  They have the top paid player in the game, as well as two others (Teix and CC) who are close to the top.  Unfortunately, they play in the same division as Boston and Tampa and only two of the three can go to the playoffs.  It would be a public relations nightmare if the Yanks missed the playoffs and the media naysayers were able to dissect the failure and deduce that the Yanks were more concerned with innings limits that winning.

I also agree with SG and others that Hughes will get his opportunity to start, probably when someone goes down with an injury (hopefully just a minor one).  In the meantime, using Hughes like Mo in 1996 seems to be a good idea.

I had been looking at the “crappy” NL west a few days ago, and actually, that division has one of the better records in baseball.  I was just looking at the aggregate wins above or below .500, and they were second to the AL East, so it’s not like the NL west is a cupcake division.

“Yeah, I’m sure that being in the crappy NL West and having Billingsly, Kershaw, Ethier, Camp, Martin, Loney, etc helps a bit too. “

YM-you took the bait, thanks.

so it’s not like the NL west is a cupcake division.

Dodgers are 26-11 in their division, 23-18 against everyone else.  So they’re a good team (91 win pace against non-NL West) playing in a weak division.  Another thing, one of the themes here has been how June has been a horrible month for the Yanks.  There were 15-11 with a +38 run differential.  LAD was 14-12 with a -4.

YM-you took the bait, thanks.

Anytime: I live but to serve!

Honestly, I’d love to see Hughes in a Mo ‘96 type of usage pattern.  Fewer games, but longer outings.  I think a higher frequency of one inning outings is no less stressful than fewer longer outings, even if you end up with more innings in the second scenario.

This is how I think Aceves should be used (until he implodes).  Maybe all good relievers.  It’s hard to believe that the only two “safe” ways to pitch are one inning per appearance, appearing several times in a week, and 5-8 innings per appearance, appearing 1-2 times per week.  Starters already throw bullpen sessions, so it’s not like touching a ball between starts makes their arm fall off.  You could still take relievers out early if they have a bad appearance.  If your relievers suck then you might want to take advantage of platoon splits.  But more innings from good relievers is a good thing.

There were 15-11 with a +38 run differential.

Finishing the month with a six-game winning streak didn’t hurt!

Regarding Hughes Rules: I’d be surprised if there aren’t any, but am more surprised to find that they don’t include having him pitch multiple innings where appropriate.  The ‘96 Mo usage pattern suggests the best of both worlds: enough innings to elevate his workload next year appropriately fused with a win-now strategy.  SG, make it happen.

So they’re a good team (91 win pace against non-NL West) playing in a weak division

I guess I don’t see the evidence for “weak division”.  Well, weaker than the other two NL divisions.  The NL west outside of the Dodgers has a 148-158 record, and a record of 137-131 when playing non-Dodger opponents.  That’s a 0.511 winning pct against all other divisions.  That doesn’t say weak to me.  The NL East says weak.

Finishing the month with a six-game winning streak didn’t hurt!

On a related note, could the Yankees seek transfer to NL East? That could be good for them. Also, play the Mets in their current incarnation as much as possible.

I like Pete Abe stuff. The piece on Posada was nice, though I wish he gave his juco stats.

What bothers me is that they fixate on velocity based on the YES Network radar gun, which seems to be inconsistent and inaccurate, often inaccurate on the SLOW side.

YES’ gun has been far more in line with the velocity readings at Gameday and PitchFX over the also month. At times, YES’ readings have been 1 mph faster.

In Joba’s start v. Beckett at Fenway last July, PitchFX has his aveerge FB at 95 and his max velocity at 99. He has not come close to that his season as a starter. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to cite the disparity and to consider the reasons for it.

Honestly, I’d love to see Hughes in a Mo ‘96 type of usage pattern.  Fewer games, but longer outings.

That’s another reason why Girardi’s decision to remove him after a 9 pitch 7th inning was so frustrating. The situation presented a great opportunity to stretch him out a little.

Why is this so freaking important, when compared to, say, winning games in 2009?  So what if Hughes doesn’t get to 170 or so innings this year?  That just means he’d be limited to 170 or so innings next year, which is not exactly the end of the world.  We criticize managers all the time for not playing to win today’s game; why not give the organization a little credit for playing to win this year?

That’s being a little dramatic don’t you think?  They have the best record in baseball since A-Rod came back.  They can win games in 2009 without Hughes in the Bullpen.  Mo, Aceves, Coke, Robertson, Bruney… all enough.  Do we really need a 6th very good option out of the bullpen that badly?  I’d much rather see if Hughes has the ability to stay healthy and reach his innings limit before he is penciled into the rotation for 2010.  If you want a 6th guy that badly give Melancon another shot. 

The bullpen isn’t a weak spot on this team that needs to borrow from the starters to be effective. 

Joba’s got the second best ERA among the starters on the team.  Of course he could go longer in some games, but this idea that he’s a major concern on this team is kind of absurd to me.  An ERA in the high 3’s while pitching half his games in NYS is quite good.  He’s an adjustment or two away from being an ace starter at age 23.  This seems like a perfectly normal development process for a young pitcher.  Most young pitchers have ups and downs and things to work out.  Not everyone is Tim Lincecum.  Think about Zach Greinke, Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez.  A little patience.

No one is giving up on him or saying he should go back into the bullpen but it is reasonable to be frustrated with the amount of strikes he is throwing and his approach to the game.  I don’t mind if he gets shelled every once in a while but I’d like to see him stop going to 3-2 on so many batters.  After 27 starts and an era in the mid 3’s he still doesn’t go at batters.

That’s being a little dramatic don’t you think?

It’ll be dramatic when the Yankees are on top of the standings. No wasting any talent (or not any more than we already have with Berroa, Veras, Tomko) until 2009 is secured.

Someone mentioned that it looks like Joba could use a breather. I guess it can’t hurt, he needs something to get his plus stuff in the plus territory.

[23] “I doubt they will flip Joba and Phil at this point but who knows.  If Joba continues to put tons of guys on base, they may just do that. “

Putting tons of guys on base doesn’t really play well in the 8th inning.

I thought Joba was a little unlucky last night, some bloops, etc.  He’ll be fine.  23 year old starters are erratic.  He’s still hitting 95 plus.  That’s plenty of velocity to win with.  Plenty of guys throw 98 and can’t get anyone out.

“but it is reasonable to be frustrated with the amount of strikes he is throwing and his approach to the game.”

Do we even know what his approach is?

Plenty of guys throw 98 and can’t get anyone out

Cough, Kyle Farnsworth, cough.

And if a pitcher gets arm/shoulder problems, that happens. It won’t necessarily be because of usage, especially as the Yankees have been careful with both.

If they both throw 220 IP next season without increasing their innings then that’s not being careful with them is it?  The question was why people are concerned with Hughes’s IP.  Obviously, 2009 comes first, but as posted above, the Yankees have a plethora of RHP in bullpen and Melancon in the minors.  If the Yankees are only going to use Hughes for one inning stints here and there it’ll be like using Swisher only as a pinch-hitter.  However, if they want to develop his arm strength and additional pitches as a preparation for next year and use him at the ML level, then it would probably be beneficial to use Hughes as a 1-3 inning guy out of the pen and less as teh 7th Inning Guy.

He’s still hitting 95 plus.  That’s plenty of velocity to win with.  Plenty of guys throw 98 and can’t get anyone out.

It is, but the context is that he threw considerably harder less than a year ago. His average fastball velocity is often three to four mph slower than it was as a starter last season. He’s 23, not 33. As such, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to be a little concerned.  That’s why I think the “debate” (if one even wants to call it that) about whether he should be in the rotation or the pen misses the point.

Finishing the month with a six-game winning streak didn’t hurt!

Sure; but would it have been any “better” if they had on 2 more games earlier in the month and were only 4-2 in the last 6?

Do we really need a 6th very good option out of the bullpen that badly?

You haven’t seen all the postings questioning why our 7th guy out of the bullpen (Tomko) isn’t better, have you?

I guess I don’t see the evidence for “weak division”.

I guess it is unclear.  Certainly, the Dodgers have played MUCH better w/in their division than outside it.  Is that SSS, is it that the Dodgers are particularly well-suited to match up against their division opponents, something else?  I’m pretty sure if you flipped the Dodgers and Yankees the Yanks would be in first in the NL West and the Dodgers 2nd (or 3rd) in the AL East.  I suppose if SG got really, REALLY bored he could simulate that using YTD stats…

“The bullpen isn’t a weak spot on this team that needs to borrow from the starters to be effective”

It isn’t necessarily weak, but the pen isn’t as strong as you suggest. They have been only good for a month or so. The time for outright excellence is the second half.  The games with Boston, Tampa, Minnesota and Tampa will provide quite a test for the pen as some of the starters will likely get knocked out early.  Having Hughes there makes the team better for the unfortuate situations when you have two poor starts in succession. Hughes right now is better than every reliever option they have leading to Mo.

“In Joba’s start v. Beckett at Fenway last July, PitchFX has his aveerge FB at 95 and his max velocity at 99. He has not come close to that his season as a starter. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to cite the disparity and to consider the reasons for it. “

As I recall that performance was likely his best moment as a Yankee and occurred did it not before he went down with last summer’s injury?  Did he really average 95? That is now most often his fastest pitch per outing.

Did he really average 95? That is now most often his fastest pitch per outing.

Link

Re: [50] - Oh, I don’t dispute that the Yanks would most likely be at the top of the NL west, or that the Dodgers might not be in first in the AL east.  The AL East is an insanely tough division this year.  But I think a fairly convincing argument can be made that the NL west is the second best division in baseball right now.

To me, a weak division is one in which the teams have a losing record in aggregate.  It doesn’t matter so much if the Dodgers have beaten the other teams in the division slightly more than other teams.  I want to see how that group of teams fair in games outside the division.

But I think a fairly convincing argument can be made that the NL west is the second best division in baseball right now.

Fair enough.  I guess I’ve read so many negative things about the NL West I had a pre-conceived notion, backed up by a quick check of the fact the Dodgers are merely good outside their division.  You are correct in pointing out that is not rigourous enough.

How is the NL West in interleague play wrt the winning %s of the AL teams played relative to the corresponding calculation for other divisions?

I think the other thing is that the division was very weak last year, and people have informational inertia.  I know I went in thinking the NL west sucked, and only really changed my mind once I looked at the records for respective divisions.  Now, I don’t think they’re close in quality to the AL East, but that’s mostly because the AL East is up a tier from everyone else this year.

Obviously, 2009 comes first, but as posted above, the Yankees have a plethora of RHP in bullpen and Melancon in the minors.

FWIW, in June Melancon pitched 15.1 innings w/ 18K’s but a 4.11 ERA.  On sites like Chad Jennings’s blog SWB fans have been concerned about him since he returned from NYC.  I think I saw him live once and he was so-so.  There may be some concern about him being effective RIGHT NOW in the majors.  Other options in the minors are Clagget, Edwar, and Alby.

I think it is a combination of three things right now why Hughes is in the bullpen in the majors as oppose to starting in the minors.  1) They feel he’s the best option of the 3 above and himself in the pen in the majors 2) They feel he will develop more as a pitcher (if not get the innings) in the bullpen in the majors 3) They have some concerns about Joba, Wang, AND Pettitte for going deep into games right now, but aren’t ready yet to pull any from the rotation.

Joba’s velocity according to Fangraphs.

The NL west played the AL west to a draw this year, thanks mostly to the Rockies going on a ridiculous run during interleague.  NL West interleague winning% was exactly .500.

I think the other thing is that the division was very weak last year, and people have informational inertia.  I know I went in thinking the NL west sucked, and only really changed my mind once I looked at the records for respective divisions.

Yeah, that was the same as me.  The difference is I only looked as far as the Dodgers (confirmation bias), and you correctly looked at everything.

Cao batting 213 with RISP and 339 with no one on, I vote with those who want to move Cano out of the 5 hole.

Girardi says Bruney is his 8th inning guy despite how well Hughes is pitching.  OK maybe for now but remember though Bruney was light out before his injury this year and in his injury shortened season last year it was only a few years ago that he was walking the house ala Veras.

If they both throw 220 IP next season without increasing their innings then that’s not being careful with them is it?

There’s no reason at all to think that this would happen.  As noted by others, the Yankees have been very conservative with these guys so far.  Why should we be worried that they’re going to suddenly decide to ride them as hard as they can until their arms fall off?  Billy Martin isn’t walking through that door.

That’s being a little dramatic don’t you think?

I would argue that it is considerably less dramatic than all the angst about the dire consequences of Hughes being limited to 170 or so innings in 2010.

Putting tons of guys on base doesn’t really play well in the 8th inning.

Indeed.  And this is something I would harp on whenever the “Joba in the eighth” argument came up.
However, those calling the shots may not see it that way.

A courageous manager would come out and say that bullpen roles, including Closer, is nonsense; and a courageous GM would support that courageous manager; and a courageous owner would support the GM.

However, those calling the shots may not see it that way.

You know one plan the Yankees *could* have for Hughes/Joba.  Sometime late August/early September, they flip them.  Build up Hughes’s innings, keep Joba’s down.  Also stretches Hughes out - not starting that argument again MC but if he relieves for the next 6+ weeks he may need *some* stretching out - if he’s needed to start in the post-season.  Give Joba 2 more starts at the end of September (either for Hughes or someone else) so he’s ready for the post-season as well.  See, ultra simple!

It’s not that common for non-ace/workhorse pitchers these days to pitch much more than 170 innings anyway.  The Yankees do have the problem of reaching the postseason most years, but still.

“Cao batting 213 with RISP and 339 with no one on, I vote with those who want to move Cano out of the 5 hole.”

BA is a poor metric.  And batting order is not very significant.

A courageous manager would come out and say that bullpen roles, including Closer, is nonsense; and a courageous GM would support that courageous manager; and a courageous owner would support the GM.

So, we don’t like Girardi/Cashman/Hal because they aren’t revolutionary?

“Sometime late August/early September, they flip them.”

Well, move to the model people here wanted before, Joba starts then Hughes takes over for shorter and longer, uh, stretches, resp.

BA is a poor metric

I think with RISP it’s actually a fairly decent one. And his OPS with RISP is .588, his OBP is 0.248.  He hasn’t been good.

“a courageous”

You’d need an open-minded bullpen too.  Mo’s a great pitcher and apparently person but he might not tolerate being brought in to douse a fire in the 6th.

“And his OPS with RISP”

What are the statistics on that?  What’s the statistical uncertainty on his BABIPwRISP?

Those numbers were just for 2009.  For his career, Cano has a .705 OPS with RISP (771 PA) and a .861 OPS with the bases empty (1392 PA).  I’d say those are statistically significant differences.

And batting order is not very significant.

I agree except at the extremities.  E.g. I think you pointed out yesterday about having the BUC hitting 1st.  You can then get into the argument about consistency vs. stubborness.  E.g. you don’t want a manager changing batting spots every day, but at the same time if a player is clearly slumping (or is hot) you do want them moved.

Interesting thing though.  Pretty sure last week I saw a suggestion here that they should flip ARod and Teix since ARod wasn’t offering any protection and Teix would protect ARod.  So if that’s true, wouldn’t you want Posada protectiong Cano?

Just for comparison, Jeter has an OPS of .839 and .852 in RISP and bases empty, respectively.

Cano 09 RISP 248 OBP 340 Slg overall 332 482
career     298   408
        335   470

he has consistently underperformed with RISP with all metric and it seems to me it does matter who hits behind Tex and Arod

Cano: “861 OPS with the bases empty”

Jeter: “.852 [...] bases empty,

You should be calling for Cano to bat leadoff then.

Or the team should be working on improving Cano’s approach with RISP and leave him where he can put that into practice.

So if that’s true, wouldn’t you want Posada protectiong Cano?

I don’t really care who’s batting behind Cano.  I want Cano coming to the plate with the minimal number of runners on.  I don’t want him batting behind the two highest OBP guys the Yanks have.

And I’m not sure batting order can be just dismissed out of hand.  I think it’s been shown that on the aggregate, it doesn’t matter too terribly much.  But remember, those studies were basically run with simulations that just looked at players as if they performed equally in all situations.  I think in this case, with Cano, it’s reasonable to conclude that he isn’t good with runners on, maybe because of his approach at the plate.  In that case, I do think batting order matters.

I’d say those are statistically significant differences.

Officially, over time a batter’s stats w/ RISP approach their stats w/o.  Derek “Captain Clutch” Jeter is .839 OPS w/ RISP, .852 w/o (career).  Now, for the record, I think Jeter probably *does* have some clutch-ability.  But I’m not sure how to quantify it or how much it would mean.  But I think eventually Cano’s numbers will approach each other, both this season and for his career.

However we come out on the Cano situation, it’s nice to see that Josh Beckett is demonstrating how to “play the game the right way” today.  Wonder if Luke Scott will get one in the ribs later.

Officially, over time a batter’s stats w/ RISP approach their stats w/o.

What is this based on?  Cano has over a season’s worth of PA with RISP and two seasons worth of PA with the bases empty.  His K rate jumps almost 2%, and his isoP goes down with RISP. These are all factors that stabilize in that number of PA.

I’m not a Cano hater, I really like him.  I just think that there’s not really going to be a way to “teach” him to succeed in these situations, especially during the season.

I think in this case, with Cano, it’s reasonable to conclude that he isn’t good with runners on, maybe because of his approach at the plate.  In that case, I do think batting order matters.

Perhaps, perhaps not.  There are a lot of supposes, in case ofs, if you assumes, etc. in these arguments.  You could also make an argument that since Cano doesn’t strike-out much (high contact rate) and ARod is (historically) a base-stealer, you have more options for hit-and-run w/ Cano batting after ARod than you would w/ Posada.  Also, Cano’s OPS is .027 points higher batting 5th than 6th, and Posada’s is .257 higher (not a typo) batting 6th than 5th (this year for both).  Yada, yada, yada.

Aside: Something on the mental aspect of the game.

If someone has the data and software to run a simulation with various permutations of say Posada, Matsui, Cano batting 5,6,7 with the other guys unchanged it would be interesting to see if it makes a difference.

What is this based on?

I’m sure I’ve ready studies before.  Just real quick from Google the first hit I get is this (about the Yankees actually).

http://www.pinstripealley.com/2009/6/15/909470/ba-w-risp-what-to-make-of-it

Of note is this snippet, “the league BA w/ RISP is .266, against a .269 league BA”.  Of course that is league-wide, not studying a particular player.  Posada career is .895 RISP, .846 w/o.  Some of that probably has to do w/ his 69 IBB w/ RISP.  ARod is .958 w/, .951 w/o.

It is certainly possible that Cano has a mental block about hitting w/ RISP.  Or it is something he needs to “learn” how to do.  Or it is still something that is as much random-chance as anything.

The 0.7-0.8 difference does look systematic to me.  Cano is a streaky player - I wonder if he’s seen more RISP when down than up, relatively.  Perhaps he’s trying to pull the ball more with RISP, or less, or being overpatient and letting good pitches to hit go by, or often sees lefty pitching later in the game with RISP.

Anyway I rather doubt he’ll see significantly fewer RISP batting 7th.  But if there really is an effect he should lead off.

Also, how is he with a runner on first and no RISP?

Markakis doubles in two runs.

Runner on only first, OPS of .795, still lower than his bases empty OPS for Cano.

Mike, I think there’s a fundamental difference between looking at the regression of a team to the mean compared to the regression of an individual player.  I’m not sure you can assert that he will “average out” eventually.  And these aren’t small sample sizes.  There are 2000 PA combined for Cano with the bases empty and with RISP.  When OBP, SLG, ISOP, and OPS all stabilize at around 350 PA, I think this is significant.

You could also make an argument that since Cano doesn’t strike-out much (high contact rate) and ARod is (historically) a base-stealer, you have more options for hit-and-run w/ Cano batting after ARod than you would w/ Posada.  Also, Cano’s OPS is .027 points higher batting 5th than 6th, and Posada’s is .257 higher (not a typo) batting 6th than 5th (this year for both).

Frankly, these would not be terribly convincing arguments. Cano has made very weak contact with men on base this year, as the OPS shows. Also, A-Rod is not running this year with his hip situation, so what he has done historically is quite irrelevant to this year. And with the number of plate appearances that generate the 0.27 and 0.257 differences in the OPS for this year, I am almost certain that the confidence intervals for hitting fifth or sixth will be the size of Texas for both, and the difference not statistically significant in any meaningful way.

I think this is one instance where scouting could come in handy. Do Cano’s habits change when he is hitting with men on base? Is he hell bent on making contact at that point?

To be fair, Cano has hit a few balls hard, just right at people which have resulted in double plays. He deserves a reasonably lengthy run to show what he can do at #5, but at some point this experiment may need to be scrapped.

Scott gets an IBB not a fb in the ribs.

“Cano has made very weak contact with men on base this year”

That was RISP.  Of course a low OPS could also mean a lot of fly balls that don’t fall in, hence the BABIPwRISP question above.

Also, how is he with a runner on first and no RISP?

W/ a runner on first only he is .935 OPS this year.  Runner on 2nd only he is 1.013.  It’s when runners get to third he really gets into trouble.  For his career .795 w/ runner on 1st only (.701 runner on 2nd only).  So the master strategy!  The opposition won’t want to walk ARod if there is no one on because Cano is great w/ runner on 1st.  If Teix is on first they won’t want to get ARod out b/c of that same reason.

Cano has etremely poor strikezone judgement.  With men on, pitchers are not going to give him anything down the middle, whereas they may “pitch-to-contact” more with the bases empty.  Also, Cano seems to have no ability to elevate the ball when needed.

Right now, I bat Cano 9th, 8th at best, if you want Gardner as the “2nd leadoff man” or Cervelli is playing.

In what alternative reality is Cano a better hitter than Posada, Swisher, and Matsui?  He should never bat in front of them.

The relevant data is here

His BABIP is lower with RISP, but by less than his BA is lower.  That’s partly because he has a 2% increase in his K rate and a 2% decrease in his HR/PA rate with RISP.

Honestly, I’d love to see Hughes in a Mo ‘96 type of usage pattern.  Fewer games, but longer outings.

Mo ‘96 had 61 appearances.  So, “Mo ‘96 type usage pattern” is to have Joe Torre frag your arm, just like Scott Proctor, but be fortunate enough to be a once in a generation relief pitcher.

I’d rather sign up for ‘03-‘04 Santana usage.

Right now, I bat Cano 9th, 8th at best, if you want Gardner as the “2nd leadoff man” or Cervelli is playing.

In what alternative reality is Cano a better hitter than Posada, Swisher, and Matsui?  He should never bat in front of them.

This is my preference as well. And you’d get to take advantage of the “bat the pitcher 8th” effect if you put him 9th.  I think he’s a good hitter.  I just want him at the plate with as few runners as possible.  And A-Rod and Tex are getting on base a ton, which is good.

Beckett plays the game the right way as he serves up a homer to Ty Wiggington.

And this should augment Dapuj’s [93].

Frankly, these would not be terribly convincing arguments.

I know.  That was the point.  I’m not terribly convinced by the other arguments either, so why can’t I propose some unconvincing arguments of my own?

When OBP, SLG, ISOP, and OPS all stabilize at around 350 PA, I think this is significant.

That’s for a season, so you can’t apply that to what he’s done for his career.

Mike, I think there’s a fundamental difference between looking at the regression of a team to the mean compared to the regression of an individual player

Perhaps, but as I said that was just the first hit I got on Google.  Isn’t one of the fundamental laws of regression though is that the invidividual will regress to the mean over time?  So if on average hitters hit just as well w/ RISP as bases empty, shouldn’t Cano regress to that as well?  Again, perhaps he is a unique individual.  Or perhaps we’re just overthinking this to try to explain why the Yanks are 2nd in runs scored instead of first.

[93] Thanks.  0.275 vs 0.335 BABIP is quite something.  I wonder about his LD% and FB/GB splits.

not starting that argument again MC but if he relieves for the next 6+ weeks he may need *some* stretching out

The whole point I was trying to make in that argument is that 3 weeks does not equal 9 weeks when it comes to needing to stretch someone out to start again.