4) Let Pettitte walk
5) Let Pudge walk
6) Resign Kyle Farnsworth

7) In light of (6), don’t sign Kyle Farnsworth. Instead, buy Yankeemonkey a roller coatser ride every 3 days during the regular season. Spare the rest of us with regular/bad hearts.

Unless she was asking Kyle Farnsworth to resign from whatever office he is holding.

Be sure to offer Abreu arbitration, though, so the Yanks can get the Mets first round draft pick for 2009.

Also, unless the Yanks are absolutely sure Posada can catch 120 games next year, they should keep Pudge and trade him at the deadline if need be.

I agree with all you guys except yankee monkey on the resigning of Kyle Farnsworth. Also, we have to offer arbitration to Pudge, because he’s a Type A as well.

Yeah, I’d offer arbitration to everyone except Pavano, who wouldn’t fetch a draft pick anyway.  If you get stuck with Giambi/Abreu/Pudge on a one year deal they are easily tradeable.

Um, guys?  You do know I was kidding about Farnsworth, yes?

Also, IIRC, Pudge is type B.

Suppose Pettitte wants to come back for one year and $12M do you take him back or do you add $5M to that to get Burnett or $12M to that to get Sabathia?  Would we rather have Burnett and Pettitte or CC?  I’d love a rotation of CC, Wang, and Joba up front but Joba has to be a 5 due to his inings requirement.  So basically that leaves us with a void at 3 and 4.  I’d like Hughes to be able to fill one of those slots but I don’t have confidence in his ability to do so at this point.  So I think we must use Cano+ to trade for a young pitcher.  Then we can sign Ellis and Teix.  I’d also like to dump Matsui in some sort of 3way trade for a CF- perhps David Dejesus.  Then we can sign Dunn to take his place.

i think Pettitte will be back for some number less than $16M. and that will happen soon.  there are just too many holes to walk away from his 200 innings, even if he’s not as good as he used to be.

i’d say Pettitte is a given.

now, the Yankees need at least one more starter.  that’s where the decision comes in.  do they pursue a cheaper player via trade, but costly in talent, so they can start bringing the payroll down?  i don’t know who that pitcher would be. 

do they just go all in for Sabathia? 

do they sign Burnett and then go all in for Teixeira?  i don’t think that’s a bad plan.

the 2009 Yankees will have at least 1 starter who was not on the 2008 Yankees.  it will be fun to watch what they do (i hope).

Pettitte was hurt toward the end of last season.  If he’s healthy, there is no reason to think he won’t bounce back in 2009.  Plus, I like the one year deals.

And of course you are kidding, YM.  You are a little stuffed monkey with a Yankee cap.  What else would you do?

So I think we must use Cano+ to trade for a young pitcher.

Cano isn’t going anywhere.  We get you want to get rid of him, but it’s not happening, unless something happens like, SD calling up and saying, “we’ll give you Peavy for Cano”.  I put the chance of that at .001%.

i’d say Pettitte is a given.

I agree.  I think for the most part we’ve been talking about “Moose or Pettitte”.  Well, I’m really thinking Moose is going to call it quits.  If so, there’s only Pettite.

So yeah, that gives you:

1) Wang
2) ?
3) Pettitte
4) Hughes
5) Joba

Wang is a #1 - he may not be an Ace (personally, I think there are about 30 #1’s, but only about 10 Aces) - but he’s a number 1.  So this means the Yankees can either sign/trade for an Ace (CC obviously, Sheets if you think he’ll be healthy) sliding Wang down to #2, or sign/trade for a #2 (Lowe, I think Burnette is a fringe #2, but I’d accept him as a #2).

I think a lot of whether you feel they need several pitchers, is what you feel about Hughes.  I think it’s probably 60/40 right now.  60% of people (here) feel that Hughes will be fine as a #4 next year (I don’t think #4’s usually throw more than 150 innings in a year), and will at least be a #3 for his career, probably better.  40% think at best he’s a 5 next year, and at best a 4 down the road.  I’m definitely in the 60% group, so just get one pitcher.

I don’t buy into the media’s insistence that Mussina will retire.  His thoughts after his last game of the season and his thoughts in November 2008 could be two very different things, especially when you throw a lot of money and the potential for 300 wins into the equation.  Retirement is obviously possible, but I don’t think it’s as probable as the beat writers have indicated.

His thoughts after his last game of the season and his thoughts in November 2008 could be two very different things, especially when you throw a lot of money and the potential for 300 wins into the equation.

The 300 wins thing seems to be the issue.  Moose knows he needs 3 years most likely to hit 300.  If I were the Yanks I’d try to sell him on one more year with a shot at a ring instead of looking at 300.  Of course, they probably have to show him that they are ready to do what it takes to contend in 2009 by filling the holes that showed up in 2008, not just tell him that they are planning to contend.

But I agree, I don’t think anyone knows with any certainty exactly what Moose is going to do next year.

Mike K: I don’t want to get rid of Cano- I actually like him a lot and was very disappointed by his play this year.  I would move him for comparable talent at another position that may be harder to fill.  I think 2B can be filled by Mark Ellis- his bad bat can be compensated for by his great glove and then we can use resources to get Teix, Dunn, etc.  Would anyone on this board include AJax in a trade for Dejesus or Crawford?

Would anyone on this board include AJax in a trade for Dejesus or Crawford?

without thinking about it too much, Crawford yes, DeJesus probably not.

Mike K: I don’t want to get rid of Cano- I actually like him a lot and was very disappointed by his play this year.

I apologize then.  I know over the last couple of days you’ve been including Cano in pretty much every trade scenerio you’ve mentioned.  Apparently you are doing this because you think it will take him to get these players.  Okay then.

However, I still think - my opinion - Cano will bounce back next year and be the player many of us were *expecting* to get this year, maybe even better.  Basically, the best 2B in the AL (I think he’ll pass Roberts and Pedroia).  So…

Would anyone on this board include AJax in a trade for Dejesus or Crawford?

Dejesus, no.  Crawford…tempting.  My initial reaction is “no”, but I’d need to study it more.

that assumed crawford comes with a contract extension

It seems to me that players often seem to be considering retirement when a season’s ending, but - statistically - usually don’t.  (History proves that this certainly is NOT because a player can decide not to retire many times, but decides to retire only once.)  My guess is that Mussina’s back, and at a reasonable cost.  His quotes seem to say just this: I’m feeling like retiring now, but I’ll probably feel differently in a week or so.

I’m interested in whether the consensus is that this year’s offensive shortcomings (which far exceeded any pitching problems, right?) are an un-anticipat-able statistical anomaly or whether the tea really needs to add a whole heap of offense.  And, if so, how that could be done, given the available options.  With Wang coming back and starting the season with Chamberlain in the rotation, with Hughes and others ready for another try, I don’t see a drastically over-used and bulky CC as a necessity, and maybe not even as a good idea.  Nor should the Pavano debacle make the idea of Sheets or Burnett particularly appealing.

Mussina’s brother has a blog, and says he sorta thinks Mike will not retire.

Also, if you can’t find a better backup catcher than Pudge, you aren’t trying that hard. Maybe it’s just the fact that he was an absolute zero with the Yankess this season, but I can not stand having him on the team. I know he projected to be a big offensive upgrade over Molina but was he?

but decides to retire only once

Mr. Clemens has a word for you.

I have a hard time thinking Mussina will retire after the year he just had.  Unless his family puts the kibosh on another season (which is altogether possible) I just can’t see him leaving the game.

Whether the New York Yankees resign Mike Mussina depends almost entirely on his wife, Jana.

But Jana has been adamant that he retire to life on their spread in tiny Montoursville, Pennsylvania, where the family compound is a half-dozen Ruthian clouts from the road and Mike can walk into Elery W. Nau Hardware on Broad Street without having to sign an autograph.

“Yankees Choices on Free Agents”

I do wonder if this is credible or a case of the writer trying to be overly dramatic.

I know he projected to be a big offensive upgrade over Molina but was he?

Not really.  Rodriguez was worth 8 batting runs over 101 PA.  Molino was worth 21 over 297.  So over 650 PA, you’re looking at 51 batting runs for Rodriguez, 46 for Molino.  Half a win or so.

That doesn’t mean he wouldn’t be better than Molina next year, but I’m sure someone will sign him.  Here’s what teams got out of their catchers in 2008 in terms of runs above replacement level.

pBRAR are position-adjusted batting runs above replacement level, Def is just runs saved above average, and TR is total runs (pBRAR + Def).

Any team that was fewer than 20 runs above replacement level would probably benefit from signing Rodriguez.

How do the Tigers have 827 PA for their catchers?  Does that count either Inge’s 3B PA or does it count Pudge’s NY PA?  It just seems weirdly high compared to every other team.

Supposedly Matt Kemp is an awful CFer, per LA fans- true?  I’d prefer Dejesus I think.  Also, what would we pay for Manny? 3yrs, $55M is the highest I’d go.  And what’s this about Matsui playing 1B in Japan?  If he can be a league avg 1B I’m all for it over Teix.  Damon, Jeter, ARod, Manny, Matsui, Posada, Cano, Nady, Dejesus; Wang, Burnett, Mooooose/Pettitte, Joba, Hughes- nice! And about -$20M off payroll with another $35-40 coming off for 2010.

Um, guys?  You do know I was kidding about Farnsworth, yes?

You could have used the NOT joke. For instance:

6) Resign Kyle Farnsworth [Pause] NOT!

Does that count either Inge’s 3B PA or does it count Pudge’s NY PA?  It just seems weirdly high compared to every other team.

Yeah, Inge screws up their totals.  Hardball Times lists everyone at their primary position.

Whats with all the love for DeJesus?
He’s a decent CF whos already 29 and has a league average bat.

Juan Cruz>Marte- discuss.  2009 Phil Coke > Marte- discuss. Is Marte a product of NL Central and on the decline?

How about “psych!”?

Zorak- good glove, avg bat- isn’t that what we dream of Melky becoming one day?  Isn’t that all we need in a lineup surrounded by stars?  Is that worth IPK and Melky and maybe another prospect?  Would theey do it- not sure but Cash should ask.

It was my understanding that DeJesus’ defense was ok but not great.  He started more games in LF than CF this year.

“3) Let Pavano walk”

Come on now, someone should wheel him out. It’s wrong to wish injury on anyone.

I don’t know why people are worried about the Yankees saving money. I don’t want the Yankees to go into the offseason believing they need to GM the game the “right way” and sign scrappy players and try and cut corners. We have money coming off the books and our new stadium in a great market is going to allow us to stay competitive as the economy dueling the boom of a lot of other franchises falters.

Sign Sabathia. He is not going to be an ace in years 6 or 7. People keep on saying that he wants to live on the west coast and likes to hit, but I have a feeling that he will relish being in the spotlight in New York with a chance to stick it to the Red Sox multiple times a year.

Sign Teixera. I think that we will probably need to overpay him a little, but we overpaid for Giambi, and when all was said and done, we got good value from that contract (at least from the last article I remember SG did on it). Take out the pituitary issue and it worked out well for us. Tiexera also brings plus defense at the position.

Retain Pettitte and/or Moose. It depends on if they want to sign.

If we can’t get either Andy or Moose, go out and get Burnett. If we can only get one, go out and get Lowe.

Keep Cano. Unless we can get a top starter for him, there is no reason to move him right now. He may not be an MVP candidate, but I still like what he has to offer.

I think any deal involving Matsui is a pipe dream unless we take on a really bad contract. Like Vernon Wells bad. He can DH. But I think he still has enough value to play on the team this year.

We could possibly trade Damon, but I would keep him and play him in center.

The one glaring weakness in my plan is we would still need to add another outfielder because I don’t want to go with Gardner/Melky in center.

I’m starting to wonder if Vernon Wells can be had in a Bobby Abreu style salary dump for a few mediocre prospects.

“I’ll help out.
1) Let Giambi walk
2) Let Abreu walk
3) Let Pavano walk”

1 and 3 clearly.  2… offer arbitration.  If he accepts, I don’t see why you can’t platoon him and Nady in RF.

Let’s talk about backup plans.  I think most people agree that “plan A” is to get CC, Tex or both.  Let’s come up with backup plans for both.

Backup plans for CC means other FA pitchers.  Non-ancient, non-horrible FA starters:

Burnett, Sheets, Perez, Garland, Garcia, Dempster.  That’s all I got.  Am I missing someone?

Burnett - we all know this guy.  522 IP over the past 3 years, which actually is more than I would have thought.  You know what else was more than I would have thought?  His ERAs over those years: 3.98, 3.75, 4.07.  What I see here is a 4era pitcher.  Yes, there are flashes of brilliance, but on balance he’s merely solid, despite the pretty k-rate (1 per inning).  What, exactly, is that worth, considering the injury history?  It’s definitely worth something.  So explore away, Yanks, but beware.

Sheets - similar to Burnett, he’s had injury issues.  446 IP over the past 3 seasons.  173 ER surrendered (3.49 era), 424h, 380ks, 95BBs.  So… basically a hit per inning, 7 1/2ks per 9, 2 walks per 9.  In the NL Central, of course. His k-rate is nothing special when you put it in context (Burnett’s is clearly superior, in a tougher league).  The ERA looks good, but again adjust it for the AL East and I suspect it would come out around 4.  Burnett’s era when he was last in the NL = 3.44.  So I see Sheets as a slightly lesser (and 2 years younger) Burnett.

Perez - The headcase of Mets fame.  ERAs the past couple of years are decent, though he’s given up quite a few unearned runs (2007 ER: 70, but he gave up TWENTY “unearned” runs).  Gives up lotsa HRs.  Walks too many guys.  That doesn’t sound like it will translate well to the AL.  I say no.

Garland - LAIM.  League Average Innings Muncher.  Putting him in front of the Yankee defense doesn’t strike me as a very good idea.

Garcia - injury recovery flier.  As an emergency backup, fine.  Otherwise… meh.

Dempster - Career year alert!  Suspect low ERA this year, high innings total (surpassing ‘06 + ‘07 IP).  Pitches in the NL Central.  NO.

Therefore: Go hard after CC.  Consider Burnett, but probably pass.  None of the others really works for me.  Lowe isn’t on the list (I must’ve missed him or he’s older than I thought) but could be considered as an innings eater type.

I’m starting to wonder if Vernon Wells can be had in a Bobby Abreu style salary dump for a few mediocre prospects.

would you even want to do that?

09:$10M, 10:$21, 11:$23M, 12:$21M, 13:$21M, 14:$21M

man that is ugly.

Oh, its brutal but the Yanks can afford to eat money.
And it would solve the CF problem for the next few years.
If healthy his bat plays at the corner at the end of that contract as well.

Well…they can definitely afford to eat some of it, but I don’t know whether they can (or should, or would want to) eat that entire monstrosity.  That’s just an ugly, ugly deal.  What were the Jays thinking?!

My plan, ideally:

C: Posada, Molina
1B: Tex
2B: Cano
SS: Jeter
3B: ARod
UIF: Betemit (one last chance, pal)
RF: Abreu/Nady platoon*
CF: Gardner/Baldelli platoon
LF: Damon/Nady platoon (maybe… if Nady hits LHP better.  Damon’s not awful at it).
DH: Matsui, with others seeing some time there as well.

* - if Abreu declines arbitration, then one needs to find a replacement.  If you’re going that route, I think it needs to be a trade for a young player who can play D and has a decent eye.

Pitchers:

CC
Wang
Moose
Pettitte
JobaPhil (tandem starters)
Available backups: Giese, Aceves, IPK, Coke, Rasner (?)

Mariano
Marte
Edwar
Bruney
Veras
Giese (Aceves and Coke are also decent options)

Zorak- good glove, avg bat- isn’t that what we dream of Melky becoming one day?  Isn’t that all we need in a lineup surrounded by stars?  Is that worth IPK and Melky and maybe another prospect?

Yes, that’s what we want Melky (or Gardner) to become.  No, that’s not worth IPK and Melky AND another prospect.  Because Melky and/or Gardner could still be Dejesus next year, and IPK could still be an important part of the rotation.  I’m all for finding a way to get Dejesus, because he gives you more *certainty* of being an average player next year than the others - and would make a fine 4th OF if Melky or Gardner break out - but I’m not willing to give up too much talent for him.

I’m interested in whether the consensus is that this year’s offensive shortcomings (which far exceeded any pitching problems, right?) are an un-anticipat-able statistical anomaly or whether the tea really needs to add a whole heap of offense.

I think a little of both actually.  Though it wasn’t entirely an “anomoly” quite a bit of it was through injury (mainly Posada) and Cano having (what we hope) was just a horrible off year.  Some of those things - and some bad luck w/ RISP - should work themselves out.  But they’re still going to lose Giambi and Abreu, and even though some players will improve, some will decline, and there are still injury risks to all players over 30.  So…I think they need to get two offensive “forces” (players expected to have a VORP over 30, preferably over 40).  Tex fits the bill, as does Manny, Burrell, and Dunn (probably others), plus I’m sure there are several players that could be traded for as well.

Or course, there are costs for all of these - $$, sometimes too many years, sometimes a defensive hit, and also possibly players.  Some of the costs will be too high, perhaps.  Again, I would like them to get two players, on the offensive side, and one or two (depending on what happens with Moose/Pettitte) on the pitching side.  So three or four players.  This isn’t counting any minor moves to upgrade the bench.

anomoly=typo

Dejesus has been above avg offensively 3 of the last 4 yrs and is in his prime.  If his glove is above avg too then he is very valuable. Vernon Wells for Matsui is also interesting if Toronto threw in cash or a prospeect but not sure about his glove.  Baldelli is the most interesting (and cheapest) option as 1/2 of an OF platoon but the health issues are the obvious issue.  There;s a stong chance Brett Gardner will be BAD.  Dejesus, Wells, and a healthy Baldelli? Unlikely

I hope someone else gets a post in because I don’t want 3 in a row (also not sure how much more time I will be online today).  Oh well…

I don’t know why people are worried about the Yankees saving money. I don’t want the Yankees to go into the offseason believing they need to GM the game the “right way” and sign scrappy players and try and cut corners. We have money coming off the books and our new stadium in a great market is going to allow us to stay competitive as the economy dueling the boom of a lot of other franchises falters.

We don’t want the Yankees to return to the late 80’s/early 90’s, when Steinbrenner seemed to equate $$ spent with value.  I think us “fiscal hawks” have no problem paying top $$ if we feel the player is worth it, AND would be willing to go a little over it even.  I believe Cashman feels the same way.

However, what we don’t want is Barry Zito type contracts for, say, Derek Lowe.  Lowe’s a good pitcher, and I’d be happy to have him.  But if the Yankees have to double the next highest bid (I’d guess something like 4/50, so they’d be giving him 8/100) I think that’s ridiculous.  And yes, that would never happen, I’m just trying to make a point.

So, 5/100 for CC?  Sure, I’d be happy with something like that.  10/200?  Even if Boston is offering 9/180?  No, I’ll pass.

6 for $140M?  Sold.

There;s a stong chance Brett Gardner will be BAD.  Dejesus, Wells, and a healthy Baldelli? Unlikely

There’s also a chance Gardner could be average or better, and he doesn’t cost anything.  Dejesus?  He’s pretty much average, maybe a little higher.  Again, I have nothing against getting him, but I’m just not willing to pay what I think it will take to get him.  Wells?  Sure, if you can find a way to turn Matsui into Wells, I’d do it, bad contract and all.  If you can get a prospect AND $$ too?  Great!

Baldelli…well #1 as you say a healthy Baldelli.  I’d be 100% in favor of giving Baldelli a MiLB ontract, with an invite to ST.  Let him platoon with one of Gardner/Melky, and if medical science can allow him to play 150 games great!  If he’s out the whole year, you’re back to as if you’d never signed him.  Will he do that (or some other low-cost contract)?

I don’t think anyone has anything against the players, they’re against what it would cost to get them, sometimes only for a marginal upgrade.

Risk versus utility is an interesting concept to consider.  I think it has real bearing for the Yankees, as they intend to go to the post-season every year.  HBT had a very interesting article, although I thought it was a little light on the conclusions.

Dude, I already know the 2009 opening day lineup.

Joe Girardi presented it to me in a dream.

I’m not anti-DeJesus.  He’s a decent player.  I would be against giving up much to get him, though, since Austin Jackson appears to be the CFer of the future.  If the Yanks didn’t have such a good CF prospect coming up, my take would be different.

We don’t want the Yankees to return to the late 80’s/early 90’s, when Steinbrenner seemed to equate $$ spent with value.  I think us “fiscal hawks” have no problem paying top $$ if we feel the player is worth it, AND would be willing to go a little over it even.  I believe Cashman feels the same way.

I don’t think I advocated going nuts with every single FA, but the Yankees can afford to play by a different set of rules. Sure CC and Tex may not be worth the last couple years of their contracts, but they aren’t costing us any prospects. Quality, open market players on the better side of 30 are becoming increasingly rare. We should take a financial risk with these two, because it is much better than playing the Burnett/Sheets sweepstakes to go along with the Burrell/Dunn roulette.

There’s also a chance Gardner could be average or better, and he doesn’t cost anything.

This is another chance that the Yankees don’t have to take. I am not advocating giving up Austin Jackson to bring in McClouth, but we have enough to trade for a good enough OF where we could live with Damon’s defense in center. We should not be trying to get cute or outsmart people by taking a flyer on Baldelli, especially when we can afford the prospects and money to get a better outfielder.

Wells?  Sure, if you can find a way to turn Matsui into Wells, I’d do it, bad contract and all.  If you can get a prospect AND $$ too?  Great!

Not sure if this was sarcasm or not. But any fiscal hawk who wants to sign up for Wells leaves me confused. That Wells contract is 6/116. Yes, Matsui is off your hands, but we would still need somebody at 1B. Why not just pay Tex 6/120?. If he is asking 6/150, then you really have to think.

I would rather have Abreu for 1-2 years than Manny, Dunn or Burell, b/c they would require 4-year deals.  Abreu isn’t as bad defensively as he was this year - he’s not good, but this season was flukey bad.  He’s still a solid hitter, though not what he once was.  Manny is a name with Boras as his agent, which scares me.  Dunn and Burrell are good hitters, but like Manny are terrible defenders better suited to DHing.  If you trade Matsui and THEN sign one of these guys, fine.  Otherwise, no thanks.

Oh, I see.  You’re advocating Damon in CF.  Hmm.  Damon still has decent range, but his arm is awful and it’s not clear he can handle playing CF everyday physically.  Something like Nady-Damon-Dunn in the OF is likely to be *awful* defensively and heap on added injury risk to Damon.

Dear Halos:“Please don’t spit the bit once again against Boston.”

Maybe 2009 should be a rebuilding year. Our hitting is in decline. Giambi and Abreu’s replacements won’t hit as well. Damon, Jeter, and ARod will regress due to age, as will Giambi or Abreu if they return.  It’s sad that we don’t have a single prospect who could be expected to hit well next year. In another year, we might have several.

Rather than signing good, but not great, hitters to long-term contracts, the Yanks might be better off focusing on promising players, and try to win it all in 2010.

Damon, Jeter, and ARod will regress due to age

Over the next couple years sure.
But its actually much more likely that at least 1 of those 3 performs better this year than last year.

The world economy is falling apart, the Yankees need to watch their payroll, they’re not the US gov’t. The days of wine & roses are over.

Rob in CT, I agree with your assessment of the available fa pitchers with one exception. You say Burnett is a 4 era pitcher. I retort, 4 ERA pitchers are not terribly easy to come by, and with Andy and Mike both possibly gone, we could use a 4 ERA pitcher or three.

so i see we’re all in favor of bringing back Kyle.

The days of wine & roses are over.

You mean the Yankees won’t continue to benefit from all sorts of tax breaks?  As well as not have to sweat the luxury tax for a while?

I don’t think I advocated going nuts with every single FA, but the Yankees can afford to play by a different set of rules.

Not claiming you are; explaining why a number of us are leery of the Yankees giving out high-priced contracts.  And as I’ve said, I’m willing to pay top-dollar for CC and Tex, even overpay a little.  I’m not willing to give an ARod contract to Tex however, nor pay *too* much more than Santana for CC.

This is another chance that the Yankees don’t have to take. I am not advocating giving up Austin Jackson to bring in McClouth, but we have enough to trade for a good enough OF where we could live with Damon’s defense in center.

Jackson is one of the reasons I’m against getting a CF, unless it is Sizemore or Granderson (who are probably WAY to costly).  Jackson is coming; I’m willing to live with Damon in CF or try Gardner in CF for a year to wait for Jackson.  Remember too another risk the Yankees would be taking is that their CF would flop, and the players they trade will go on to be good or better players.

Not sure if this was sarcasm or not.

More sarcasm than anything.  If all they asked was Matsui and offered to pay $$, I think the Yanks would have to look seriously at it; but Toronto would be crazy to do that so it won’t happen.

Dunn and Burrell are good hitters, but like Manny are terrible defenders better suited to DHing.

Manny would purely be for a DH.  Burrell I think the stats say is a decent LF, and probably will be average or a little under for a few years.  Dunn isn’t that good, but he can play 1B and his hitting makes up for it.

Rather than signing good, but not great, hitters to long-term contracts, the Yanks might be better off focusing on promising players, and try to win it all in 2010.

Tex is at least a very-good player (overall 5th in VORP this year, 26th last year).  If Posada is the full-time catcher this year, and since Matsui is gone next year (so Posada can DH if need be), the Yankees’s choices for 1B are bring back Giambi (who is said to want a 3-year deal), Miranda (can’t hit lefties, unsure yet how he’ll do in the bigs), or…?  After that, I think the next promising 1B in the minors is Laird, who had a nice but not great season in A.  Signing Tex makes a lot of sense…

Watching the Sox blow up in the first inning, I can’t help but think about WOE.  WOE sucks.

The world economy is falling apart, the Yankees need to watch their payroll, they’re not the US gov’t. The days of wine & roses are over.

Perhaps, but entertainment industries are usually relatively stable in bad times, sometimes they even grow. People like to forget their worries by immersing themselves in a non-reality. I think the world of baseball falls somewhere outside of reality. Escapism, hopefully providing me with employment in the near future, gotta love it.

Even though it would please me greatly to see the Angels get their asses kicked, I’d still rather see the Sox get *their* asses kicked.

Angels are not cooperating.

Angels effin’ suck.

Chip Caray and Buck Martinez also effin’ suck.  Greatly.

Even though it would please me greatly to see the Angels get their asses kicked, I’d still rather see the Sox get *their* asses kicked.

I’d rather they go death match on each other and I wouldn’t mind which team won as long as most of the rest are dead or maimed.

Well, yes.  That goes without saying.

The Angels are a bunch of f’ing pretenders.  So long, pretenders.

The way Angels are playing is very reminiscent of WOE.  Sad, really.

Is Ellsbury really a “tough hitter”?  He had a .729 OPS on the season.  He’s fast.  He doesn’t totally suck at the plate.  I hate announcers.

He’s sort-of-white and fast.  Therefore, he’s scrappy, gutsy, and a tough hitter.  Jeez, Puj, I’d think you’ve learned by now!

Is this the first time this season that K-Rod’s been brought in before the 9th?

He had 0 saves of more than three outs.

Gardner would’ve had an inside-the-parker on that.  In fact, he might’ve made to first base a second time.

How is it that this team routinely destroys the Yankees?  Why isn’t Garrett Anderson 5-for-5 with 3 rbi?

Surely you mean 5-5 with 9 RBI?

I meant 3² rbi.

you’ve got to be fucking kidding me.

Oopsie bad html.

Crap.

Crap.

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I guess now we know why K-Rod never had a save of >1 inning this season.

Fail-Rod.

He had 62 saves!!!  Who cares if he blew 7?  He still converted 9 out of 10.

K-Fraud.

<long string of curses>

I have to be at a meeting early in the morning.  Why the hell am I still awake and watching this trainwreck? 

I need therapy.

This site isn’t therapy enough?

Man, Torii Hunter is lame.

Yes…yes, he is.  Both literally and metaphorically.

Weak.  Super weak.

The Yankees have as many playoff wins this season as the Angels, Cubs, Brewers and White Sox.

Angels: most pathetic showing by a 100-win team ever?

I’ve been up for like 40 of the past 43 hours and I’m going strong. No caffeine either. I feel pretty badass.

Yeah, you’re going to pay for that. I’ve done about 3 days with negligible sleep, I logged around 30 pages and 18 miles. Then I slept for about 2 days.

I also acquired a rather nasty cold.

When the time comes to think about improvements which can be made during the offseason, I’d be interested in looking at opportunity costs as well as direct costs.

I don’t see dollars as a big problem if they are spent for value (the new stadium can probably support a $250M payroll, if that payroll comes with a corresponding number of additional wins), but playing time and roster spots might be.  For example, part of the cost of signing Tex for 8 years is not being involved when the Cardinals try to trade Pujols at the deadline in 2010 (or when he becomes a free agent in the 2011 offseason).

One way to think about that opportunity cost is to look ahead to the next 2-3 years to see what free agents are going to be available and, for the more distant future, to model a “replacement level” for the average quality of a free agent at a position who can be had on a type of contract (perhaps limiting it to 1-2 year contracts, since it’s unlikely to be in the team’s interest to sign medium quality free agents for many years).

That approach implicitly treats money as growing on trees, which while it’s not that far from true at the margin, isn’t close to true on average—even for the Yankees.  Still, Cashman’s approach to building up pitching in the farm system, would be a natural part of a strategy of using the FA market for position players (with the number of years proportional to projectability) while trying to avoid FA pitchers unless necessary since pitching is inherently harder to project.  If we assume that the vast majority of the pitching over the next 5 years will be home grown, then the limits on available FAs might well mean that money is a lot less relevant in decisions about which FA position players to acquire (assuming that the Yankees pay market value for their FAs rather than bidding prices up needlessly, and only sign long term contracts with players that have very high projected value over available replacements in the out years).

Part of the problem in the 2009 off season is that there is a shortage of FA position players who the Yankees should be happy to sign to long term contracts.  Perhaps Tex qualifies, but who else?  So, are there enough FA position players likely to be available in 2010-2011 who would be projectable as bigger improvements over the life of their contracts (in some sort of Value Over Replacement Free Agent metric) than CC would be that it makes sense to keep the money ready for midseason and future season contracts, or does Cashman need to try for the bird in hand?

I would rather have Abreu for 1-2 years than Manny, Dunn or Burell, b/c they would require 4-year deals.  Abreu isn’t as bad defensively as he was this year - he’s not good, but this season was flukey bad.  He’s still a solid hitter, though not what he once was.  Manny is a name with Boras as his agent, which scares me.  Dunn and Burrell are good hitters, but like Manny are terrible defenders better suited to DHing.  If you trade Matsui and THEN sign one of these guys, fine.  Otherwise, no thanks.

Rob in CT, I agree regarding Abreu’s defense. He has decent speed and a good arm, but the short porch seems to accentuate his wall-o-phobia. Maybe the more spacious left field would be more to his liking? Maybe that’s a bad idea, I’m just throwing it out there. A GM’s job is the art of the possible. Cash will have to decide on extensions months before he knows which free agents he will be able to sign. If he can’t land Teixeira he will want Bobby in the lineup. I understand the risks, but I would also exercise Pavano’s option. The net cost of $11 mil. is probably below market value, and he should be easy to move if the Yankees need his spot on the 25 man roster. They need depth at the AAA level that they can call up when needed. I would like to see Hughes start the season at AAA and come up in top form.  Ditto for Aceves and Coke. That will be hard to do without a few months of Pavano. I wonder what kind of a CF could be picked up for Pavano and Damon?

Does anyone find the recent lack of competitiveness in the LDS weird?  In the last two post-seasons, the Yankees are the only team to have won a game and not win the series.

For example, part of the cost of signing Tex for 8 years is not being involved when the Cardinals try to trade Pujols at the deadline in 2010 (or when he becomes a free agent in the 2011 offseason).

The NBA is slightly different (due to the fact that teams can usually sign their own FA for more than other teams can), but it is a good example of why *waiting* for a future FA is a bad idea.  For example, a couple of years ago, several teams started *not* signing FA or extensions, because they wanted to have money available for when Yao Ming became a FA.  And what happened?  He signed a long-term extension before he became a FA.  Oops!

If you were looking for a player available THIS deadline (FA next year) - e.g. Holliday - I can see taking the risk.  But two years out?  #1 you’re basically playing a scrub there for two years and #2 you have no guarantee you could get the player.  Signing Tex should be done by just looking at what it would take to get him, vs. what the options are that ARE available.  Basically, Giambi, Dunn, or Miranda.

“Does anyone find the recent lack of competitiveness in the LDS weird?”

Very much so; I don’t know what it is because these teams, for the most part, are well-matched. Maybe it’s the mind set of a short series, I dunno. TBS was probably thinking that last year was a fluke - imagine the dollars they’re losing because of all these short series.

If you were looking for a player available THIS deadline (FA next year) - e.g. Holliday - I can see taking the risk.  But two years out?  #1 you’re basically playing a scrub there for two years and #2 you have no guarantee you could get the player.  Signing Tex should be done by just looking at what it would take to get him, vs. what the options are that ARE available.  Basically, Giambi, Dunn, or Miranda.

I can see the risk of overvaluing the mere possibility of Pujols, and I would never advocate playing a replacement level player for 2 years just in case Pujols becomes available, but if one of the other candidates (most likely Giambi) were willing to take a contract for 1 year with an option year, isn’t the option value of having a contract which ends at the same time as Pujols’s worth something?  If the projected 2011 free agent class offers other likely 1st base candidates (in case Pujols retires, extends in St. Louis, or doesn’t want to be a Yankee), then that option value increases.

There are two ways a long contract can work badly:  The player can underperform what he is being paid, or his roster spot can underperform available alternatives whether or not his pay matches his performance.  The 2nd risk is an argument for only committing to a long term contract for players who are far better than the next best alternative—not just a little better.

The 2nd risk is an argument for only committing to a long term contract for players who are far better than the next best alternative—not just a little better.

If he’s a little better than the next best alternative, but you get him for two more years, it’s good isn’t it?  I mean, if you take your argument to the ultimate conclusion, you may never sign anyone.  Why sign Pujols in two years, when player X could be available in two more, who (at that point) could be better than Pujols?

Perhaps I’m barking up the wrong tree focusing on something might never happen and at best is 1.5 to 2 years away, but Pujols is head and shoulders above anyone else playing at 1B.

Here are the 2008 VORP numbers (the projections are also extreme, if not this extreme):  http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=311494

Looking at the players you mentioned in 2008:

Giambi —32.5 (but a much worse projection)
Dunn   —26.1 (50% projection for 2008 = 29)

Tex was clearly better than either in 2008 with a VORP of 67.7 (well above his 50% PETCOA of 45.8).  Pujols was off the charts better than anyone else with a 96.8 VORP, 70.3 of which was his PETCOA 50% projection. 

Looking only a offense, having the 1B playing time locked down by Tex if Pujols is available projects to be a significantly bigger mistake per year than having Dunn playing there with Tex available.

It’s rare that a player is so far beyond the others at his position that he can be projected as better than a good alternative by that much, but there we are.  The Yankees financial strength means that there is a significant (if odds against) chance he could end up a Yankee in 2011 if there is a spot for him at 1B.

I wouldn’t count Pujols projected advantage over Tex in 2011+ at remotely full value when considering an alternative 2 year solution, but even counting 10% of it might be enough to swing the decision if Tex asks for too many years or too much money.