If Boston doesn’t go 2-5 over their next seven games, it’s all A-Rod’s fault.  On the other hand, if Boston goes 0-7 over that span, it’s because Jeter willed it.

If Boston doesn’t go 2-5 over their next seven games, it’s all A-Rod’s fault.  On the other hand, if Boston goes 0-7 over that span, it’s because Jeter willed it.

Of course!  ARod was also tipping the Sox batters as to what Hughes was going to throw to drive up his pitch count.  And you may not know this, but ARod is also responsible for the financial markets being in the toilet as they are now.  Obviously.

So, for when rilkefan shows up, I’ll readjust my previous position and say that from Hughes start, he looks like he is back on track to be a contributor in the rotation in 2009. There was always the possibility that Hughes would do what IPK did - spend a few weeks in the minors rehabbing and pitching great, and then come up and get shelled in 2.1 innings (or something like that.)

Is Hughes throwing winter ball? That certainly seems like the plan he should be on. IPK and Joba should as well.

ARod is also responsible for the financial markets being in the toilet as they are now.  Obviously.

Oh it’s true!  Arod had 30M$ invested in AIG*, and pulled it all out on Friday, which is what led to the run on this stock.

*I’m making this all up of course, but he “is” one of the players who has enough money to do that!

Pete Abe answers my question:

The 33-pitch first inning, he admitted, wore him out a bit. But he battled and sort of did his job. Hughes get another start next week then report to Arizona for another 40 innings or so.

Is Hughes throwing winter ball?

He’s going to the AzFL.

Is Hughes throwing winter ball? That certainly seems like the plan he should be on. IPK and Joba should as well.

Pretty sure that Hughes is pitching in *some* form in the off-season, e.g. the AFL.  I guess from yesterday’s blog, Joba and IPK are still up for debate.  Seems the debate - though varying a little for each of them - is about how much they should pitch, and where the best place is (AFL, Hawaii, instructional league).

Pete Abe answers my question:

Hughes is at ~62 IP thus far (MiLB + MLB.) Figure he gets 2 more starts, that’ll put him ~72 IP.  Let’s be generous and add 50 from AFL, putting him at 112 IP. I think you can be comfortable with him going in the 140-150 IP range in 2009, which on the higher end of that, is about 4.5 IP per start if he were in the rotation full time. I think that’s something they can work with if they keep Phil Coke and Dan Giese in the bullpen to shadow him or take his start every now and then if he starts pitching deep into games.

You also go back to what people have kicking around here, which is to make Joba and Hughes into a 2-headed monster to share starts every 5th day.

Hughes is at ~62 IP thus far (MiLB + MLB.) Figure he gets 2 more starts, that’ll put him ~72 IP.  Let’s be generous and add 50 from AFL, putting him at 112 IP.

122IP, but your point still holds.  Hughe’s high for innings in a year is 146 MiLB innings in 2006.  Not sure what the translates too with the 30-inning rule, but yeah, 150 innings or so should be his limit.  That’s doable; limit him to 5 innings in April, then turn him loose, and when you get to August figure out if he needs more restrictions.

*have been kicking…

122IP Oops. Even better.. if they’re willing to go 40, that puts him at 162.

make Joba and Hughes into a 2-headed monster to share starts every 5th day.

I liked this at first but I sort of changed my mind.  I think that we may be taking the ‘30 inning rule’ too literally.

IIRC, it’s a simple look at the probability of a younger pitcher getting injured being substantially greater when his workload is increases more than 30 IP in subsequent years.

I think what’s missing, or at least not being discussed, is the science behind the statistics. Will 34 starts, even if they don’t sum up too > +30 IP, also mess with a pitchers arm?  What about # of pitches thrown? There’s certainly a lot of valid questions you can come up with.

I guess my point is that it may be just as unwise, to say, have Joba and Hughes split 6 innings every 5th day just to keep them under their innings cap. I really don’t know.

Something I’ve been kicking around for the last couple of days, thinking of some of the big criticism’s I’ve heard of the Yankees’s offense the last few weeks:

1) The Torre Yankees worked deep counts to tire pitchers, and Yankee hitters this year don’t do that.

Difficult to quantify exactly what this means, w/o looking at pitch-by-pitch data.  But just looking at ESPN, they give an aggregate P/PA for the Yankees going back to 1999 (I don’t feel like computing it for 1996-1998).  The Yankees this year are 3.86 P/PA, and only ONE year during the Torre years did they surpass that; 2007 was 3.88 P/PA.  I don’t think there is any evidence that they are taking less pitches this year.

2) Yankees aren’t walking as much this year as in years past.

I just used total BB’s for the team; a more correct approach may be BB/PA for the team, but I figure year-to-year, the differences will be small; e.g. a 40 BB difference in a year is one walk every 4 games, or about 140PA or so.  And…there may be something to it.  Yanks are on pace for about 520 BB or so this year, only year lower going back to 1996 is 2001 with 519.  Are BB down as a whole for the AL this year?  Just eye-balled where Yankees rank among AL teams; they’re 9th.  Only twice since 1996 have they not been in the top 4; 2001 (7th) and 1996 (8th).  So yes, they’re definitely walking less.

3) Yankees aren’t running as much, or as successfully, under Girardi as they did under Torre.

From 1996-2000 - pre-Soriano - the Yankees only had one year they really ran a lot and were particularly good; 1998 they where 153/216 (.708).  Each other year they were below .680 success, and between 96-104SB.  2001 they had 161/214 (.752), but then after that declined to between 84-100 each year until 2006, with .718-.759 succes.  2006 and 2007 they were 139/174 (.799) and 123/163 (.754) respectively.  This year?  So far 107/145 (.738), with both ARod and Jeter having leg-injuries in the first half which slowed them greatly, and Abreu just plain getting slow.  I don’ think any evidence they run particularly less or worse under Girardi (hit-and-runs, not sure if we can quantify).

Sorry post is so long, but I’m too lazy/cheap to get my own blog.  Imperfect study I know, but hey, I’m at work here!

Looked at the 2009 schedule which curiously is already posted. Was wondering if NY gets two trips to Disneyland again and sure enough. It seems like for those few games that are out there after interleague and the manditory one trip to each town that Anaheim is always included. Why not two trips to Chicago, or Cleveland,Texas,Detroit, Oakland, Seattle? I wonder if Boston gets the same treatment.

So yes, they’re definitely walking less.

i know this is obvious and doesn’t need to be said, but Posada is a guy who walks a lot and Molina is a guy who never walks.

that’s a large chunk of it.

Cano took a step backwards in terms of his plate discipline and Melky has continually and inexplicably declined in this area every year in the majors.

hopefully Cano rebounds and Melky is replaced with an average player next year.

Offense? What is offense?

That’s the word sandwiched between “worst” and “ever”.

mmmm, sandwiched.

So yes, they’re definitely walking less.

I took a quick look at BB/PA for 2008 vs. 2007 and the biggest culprits have been Arod (.107 for 2008/ .134 for 2007), Abreu (.103/.120), Matsui (.101/.115) and Cano (.041/.058) as well as the aforementioned Molina (.039) replacing many of Posada’s (.126) at-bats.

Jeter, Damon, Giambi, Melky walked at the same rate as last year.

“So, for when rilkefan shows up, I’ll readjust my previous position and say that from Hughes start, he looks like he is back on track to be a contributor in the rotation in 2009. There was always the possibility that Hughes would do what IPK did - spend a few weeks in the minors rehabbing and pitching great, and then come up and get shelled in 2.1 innings (or something like that.)”

You shouldn’t change your mind based on four innings - or two.

You shouldn’t change your mind based on four innings - or two.

Why not? I’m not looking at a stat sheet and saying Hughes went 4 and gave up 1 run so he’ll be good.

The command was off. The velocity was good. The cutter was sawing off some bats. That 33 pitch inning really wiped him out, otherwise he may have gone 6. All good indications that the September/October Hughes we saw in 2007 was not a fluke, and if he’s that kind of pitcher in 2009, he should be able to hold down a rotation spot.

Kennedy on the other hand went around the world in 80 days and we he came back he still hadn’t figured out how to put it together.

I guess my point is that it may be just as unwise, to say, have Joba and Hughes split 6 innings every 5th day just to keep them under their innings cap.

As the person who brought up the two-headed monster idea a couple of threads ago, let me just say that I would be hoping for them to split 8 innings every 5th day.  And also let me reiterate that we all know it will never happen.

Are BB down as a whole for the AL this year?

Nope.  Up slightly, as a matter of fact.

I wonder if Boston gets the same treatment.

The Red Sox had two series against the Angels at home and one in Anaheim this year.  They’ll go to Disney Land twice next season.

Why not?

Because judging any player by that small a sample size, whether you are evaluating objectively or subjectively, is silly.

“Why not?”

Because presumably your previous opinion was based on a dataset which was much larger, and 90 ok pitches shouldn’t move the assessment that much.  If a couple of those fouls had blooped in we wouldn’t be having this conversation, would we?  Of course I think the game is evidence for my view, but I’m only very very slightly more confident in it.

Usual disclaimer - one only needs to observe one purple cow.

Usual disclaimer - one only needs to observe one purple cow.

And I believe - but gosh it’s been forever since I had this class! - that you could then use mathematical induction to conclude that all cows are purple.

As an aside, I know where there used to be an ice cream parlor named “The Purple Cow”.

As an aside, I know where there used to be an ice cream parlor named “The Purple Cow”.

Now why would you leave us hanging like that?

“The Yankees this year are 3.86 P/PA…”

Call me crazy… I wonder what this number is if you subtract the first pitch from Abreu’s 644 PA’s.  I’ve seen him swing at it only a handful of times, of course I haven’t seen every PA.  IMHO, he lets far too many first pitch meatballs go by.  And I am all for taking pitches and working the count, but you can’t start off every AB 0-1 and let a wheelhouse pitch go by.  Its probably why the number is high from 2007, because of Abreu.

And of course, Bobby will swing at a first pitch tonight and either ground into a DP or hit one out, just to show me that the universe is a mysterious place.

wait, are you telling me that all cows AREN’T purple?

Oh yeah, I forgot, its A-Rod’s fault that Abreu always takes the first hittable pitch.

And I am all for taking pitches and working the count, but you can’t start off every AB 0-1 and let a wheelhouse pitch go by.  Its probably why the number is high from 2007, because of Abreu.

and if Abreu starts swinging at the first pitch, the scouting report that currently reads “always takes first pitch” will be updated, and he will stop getting “meatballs” on 0-0.

I wonder what this number is if you subtract the first pitch from Abreu’s 644 PA’s.

Why wonder?  It’s pretty simple to guesstimate an upper limit on the effect.  Abreu has put the first pitch in play 17 times this season (with 7 hits, 4 doubles and a home run).  644-17=627.  Now, of course, that doesn’t tell you how many first pitches he fouled off or swung at and missed, but let’s ignore that for now.  The Yankees have had 5863 PA at 3.86 P/PA.  So subtracting Abreu’s first pitch takes leaves about 22,000 pitches, which drops the P/PA all the way down to 3.75.  Now, the other problem with this “analysis” is that it doesn’t account for how much shorter those 627 PA would have been had Abreu swung at the first pitch more often, but I think it’s OK to put the “Abreu first pitch effect” on team P/PA at around 0.1 or so.

Its probably why the number is high from 2007, because of Abreu.

I don’t get your point here.  The number is not higher than it was in 2007.  It’s the same.  And Abreu taking the first pitch almost all the time is not something new with him.

Now why would you leave us hanging like that?

I figured most here wouldn’t be familiar with Honesdale, PA.  The place was open for less than a year, and I never made it in; my in-laws live there, and since my mother-in-law is usually an hour late getting dinner on the table, we’re never in the mood for stops on the way home.

and if Abreu starts swinging at the first pitch, the scouting report that currently reads “always takes first pitch” will be updated, and he will stop getting “meatballs” on 0-0

I think it’s a fair point that he has to be willing to swing at the first pitch.  Kind of like Giambi; pick a spot, if the ball is in that spot swing, if not let it go.  Since Abreu has put the ball in play on 17 first pitches, I’d hazard he swings at the first pitch enough.

Call me crazy… I wonder what this number is if you subtract the first pitch from Abreu’s 644 PA’s.

Full disclosure, P/PA since 1999 for Yanks: 3.79, 3.78, 3.78, 3.80 (Giambi arrives), 3.81, 3.79, 3.74 (Giambi < 300 PA), 3.81 (3.78 pre-A, 3.85 post-AS w/ Abreu), 3.88, 3.86 to date.  I’d say if anything .1 overestimates Abreu’s effect (and yes MC, I know you weren’t claiming that WAS the effect, though I think it is pretty clear he has a sizeable effect. 

To me the point still holds that I think the Yankees are working the count just fine.  I think we all know that the biggest problem has been situational hitting, which makes (some) us feel good about next year.  Oh, and it’s all ARod’s fault of course.

Purple cow?  I prefer the black swan.

Purple cow?  I prefer the black swan.

I prefer Grey Goose.

“I don’t get your point here.  The number is not higher than it was in 2007.  It’s the same.”

How exactly are 3.88 & 3.86 the “same”?  They look different to me.
And I didn’t say one was “higher”, just “high”.  I was just relating it to my Abreu point because Abreu was here last year and it goes back to post #14:

“The Yankees this year are 3.86 P/PA, and only ONE year during the Torre years did they surpass that; 2007 was 3.88 P/PA.”

How exactly are 3.88 & 3.86 the �same�?  They look different to me.

They may be literally different, but it works out to 130 pitches over 6500 plate appearances, or 0.8 extra pitches per game.  That’s fairly insignificant.

Probably scales to a more significant difference in a period of lower scoring…

Or less, depending which way’s up.

... depending on…

Probably scales to a more significant difference in a period of lower scoring…

True.  Lower OBP environment = fewer PAs = fewer pitches.

Ooooh, I’ll witness a historic moment at the Stadium tonight: the glorious start of the Juan Miranda Era!  Wheeee.

Go Moose!

True.  Lower OBP environment = fewer PAs = fewer pitches.

Even then it shouldn’t be much more than 1 pitch per-game.  I guess I’m just not seeing how the Yankees are “not working the count” as much as teams of the past decade.  They’re clearly walking quite a bit less - even if you swap Posada in for Molina/Pudge I still don’t see them breaking 600 this year - but they’re definitely seeing a lot of pitches.

I wonder…do we have enough data to compare what happened in individual counts?  If you get a 3-2 count, and the next pitch isn’t a foul (i.e. BB, K, or BIP), you’ve seen six pitches regardless of the outcome.  Curious if there is enough data to indicate they are getting to ball-3 the same amount of times as previous years, but doing something other than walking more often, or if it just happens that they are fouling off a lot of 1-2 pitches.  Useful, useless but fun, or just plain useless?  Off to pick up the kids, so I’ll have to tune in later…

Okay, scoring 4 runs with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th to tie the game is pretty ridiculous.  The cubs were down to a .2% WE!  .2%! 1 out of 500 chance.  Wow.

I wonder if the WE calculation correctly accounts for correlated scoring (e.g., the pitcher isn’t in good form so multiple runs are almost as likely as one).

No, it probably does understate that.  I was thinking about it.  A 2-0 game in the 8th probably has a much different real win expentancy than a 18-16 game.

SG, don’t you know that frog doesn’t wanna hear about Hughes and pitch counts? There’s no science behind it.

There’s no science behind it.

Do your subtle powers of perception know no bounds?

“Do your subtle powers of perception know no bounds?”

I think you mean “leaps and bounds”, or “hounds”.

I also like “know no nouns”.

Raise your hand if in 2003 you thought Javier Vasquez had peaked.

I thought at the time we were giving up on him too soon.

When did the Stadium start playing that snippet of that corporate jingle after every strikeout.  It’s so catchy.  I hope they bring that across the street.

I’ve been arguing for Abreu too.  Win some, lose more.

Which corporate jingle?  And does Bobby owe Javier a cupcake or something?

Gameday’s broken.  It just said that Cano walked.  Anyone know what actually happened?  Purple cow on the field or something?

Which corporate jingle?

I don’t want to say which electronics megastore.  It’s just this 5-note whistle that is part of the store’s commercials.

Marys brother PC?

Frog peaked the day he was hatched.

Call me optimistic, but I think Moose is going to get #18 tonight.

Bunch of lousy stat-padders.  All of ‘em.

Don- I try to read everything posted here. I just gotta wonder why you and Frog have such a hate-hate thing going on.
I Kool wif da 2 a yuz.

Yo SG. Long time.  I heard Brosius is hanging them up.

Hey Thurm.  I’m still holding out hope for a Brosius comeback.

Maybe we get that SS from Seattle. Aleks sumpin?

Those were the days.

Maybe we get that SS from Seattle. Aleks sumpin?

How about that kid SS from Boston, Nomah.

Nice send off for the antlered one. I’d rather see him back than Rogers former boy tpy.

toy that is. I say toy.

So, it seems like Moose gets to 18 today. If he makes it to 19 next start, they should start “operation vulture Moose 20”. Not that it would mean anything, but would be a pretty neat trick to play on dumbass BBWAA.

Nomah hitting that soccer chick. They say that makes your wrists weak. Just sayin.

Well, he still has a chance to win 20.  He’s got a game against the Jays, and he should be pitching in the season finale at Boston after they’ve locked up the Wild Card, so they shouldn’t care.

Suzyn Waldman said on the air that Juan Miranda is a “fantastic” fielding 1B even though all the scouting reports say he is an absolute butcher.  If Suzy were a pitcher, she would be Tanyon Sturtze.

I’d rather see him back than Rogers former boy tpy.

I almost think they have to bring Moose back.  Hopefully he’d agree to a one year deal.

Or, he wins one more and someone goes back and fixes the hole in the space-time continuum when Delmon Young hit the 3R homer off of Mo. That equals 20.

Thurm, how’s the backyard?

If Suzy was a guitarist she would be Johnny Mathis.
If Suzy was a fighting Katt she would be a Ragdoll.
If Suzy was a hitter she would be Felix Heredia.
I could do Suzy all night.

If Suzy were a VP candidate, she would be Sarah Palin.

Wait, that’s too harsh.

Yards good IE. I have a feeling its gonna be SRO come November.
How you been lad?

Thurm, frog just won’t let go, goin’ on for a few years now. Maybe he’s a groupie? Ribbit.

Yes Sam. Suzy has heard of Darwin. I don’t mean Danny Darwin.
I know she’s heard of the former Twins hurler.

Don- He has a banging Hot Dog costume. I respect that.

‘Bones Of Contention’, an interesting read.

I refuse to believe I’m a monkey’s uncle, or any other such rubbish. Just saying.

Sanchez is a big fella, isn’t he?

Don, you are not his uncle, just his cousin. And I think he regrets it too.

So Sanchez finally made it to the show. And he had a 1-2-3 inning. Good for him.

Perseverance is one of my best traits.

For the record, everyone, I don’t hate Don in the slightest!  I just enjoy the whole stimulus-response thing (scientist that I am).

He’s 6’6” 270.

Given Abreu’s durability, I’d rather have him as the DH than Matsui.  Too bad Brian gave Hideki a four year deal.

Yfin, I hope you saw yesterday’s explanation regarding the Bush-Brazillion story.

IE, to be fair, when he got that deal Matsui’s durability was unmatched.

Don- You are a monkeys nephew. Deal with it.
Is that Chris Carlin in the pen?

The problem is I don’t think the Yankees know that Abreu’s a DH.  If he’s back next year, it’ll be in RF.  He’s probably shouldn’t be as bad out there next year as he has been this year, but he’s still a good bet to be below average.

I’m sure Bobby A is not a big fan of Pink Floyds THE WAll album.
May scare him.

Frog, I saw it, thanks. I was not offended before, it was not a big deal to begin with. But your explanation made the comment funny.

I’m sure Bobby A is not a big fan of Pink Floyds THE WAll album.
May scare him.

To be fair to Bobby, that movie scares the crap out of me too.

Yay Britton.  Yay win.

Too little too late.

The movie is Katt poop. The album is /was pretty decent.
Overplay is death to good music. Ask any Led Zep fan.
BTW 38 years today the great Jimi expired in a a mess of bile,booze and pills. I still love his sounds.
Babe and Lou bless him.

Bye Lads.

Frog, you really are quite a silly one.

But, let us bury the hatchet - I’ll go first.

Thurm, I’ve got nuthin’ ta do with monkeys, maybe with The Monkees. Though Lucy does say hi! to frog.

Good night thurm, keep your friends close, and your enemies closer.