Wow.  This game was so good, it made me forget I listened to it from Ohio.

I just caught the game from the 7th inning on. 11 K’s for Burnett? That sounds good.

If KC takes at least 1, then the Yanks only need 2 of 3 from the RS to clinch the division with Boston in town.  How sweet that would be.

that game was live????  I got home early from work, threw the tv on, and thought they were replaying last night’s game.  I guess the 3-2 score should have clued me in.  Blech.  At least they won, and at least i finally got to catch up on Sunday’s Mad Men.

[4] Haha, nice.

[3] That would be sweet, but clinching it Sunday after a sweep would be just a tad sweeter.

Hairston has a wrist injury of unknown severity:

Jerry Hairston Jr. “felt a pop” in his left wrist while taking a practice swing in the seventh inning. That’s why he came out of the game.

Hairston said he felt a sharp pain. He has been been having wrist issues on and off since diving for a ball while playing for Cincinnati earlier this season. He disclosed that he had an MRI about 10 days ago and then received a cortisone shot to try and calm some inflammation.

“I’m just hoping it’s some scar tissue breaking up,” he said.

Hairston will have another MRI tomorrow. We should hear more then.

Lost in this Yankees love-fest is the fact that SG served up some tasty kahuna pie this morning. I had mine with pepperoni and mootz. Thurm the katt had some crumbled feta and fresh canned tuna. Grazie.

if the twins win, it’s like we get a free pass on the first round.

if the twins win, it’s like we get a free pass on the first round.

Only if you think facing the Angels is an automatic series loss.

Are you saying it isn’t?

Hochevar gives up three line drive singles, a line drive triple and a soft single, walks the bases full, gives up another soft fly single and then a line drive single on back to back pitches, all with one out in the fifth and he’s still in.

WTF?

I’m only sorry the Yankees won’t have the chance to dismiss personally both the Red Socks and the Angles in the playoffs.

If the Angels beat the Sox in the ALDS, and the Yankees beat the Angels in the ALCS, does the world asplode?

OK, SG.  Clue us in on what your acronyms mean (or clue me in if I’m the only one).

WWPTE?
WWPTN?

I think there was another one in a post a while back that you asked readers to guess and I don’t remember seeing the answer. 
There’s no Yankee baseball for nearly 48 hours so I need something to keep my interest….

Aw crap, I’m stupid.  ‘Who will pitch….etc.’  I was thinking along the lines of What’s Wrong With Mo Week.

Your stupidity is relative, Jonathan.  I’m still getting clued in on standard internets lingo like “AFAIK”.

The prospect of a Hairston-less PS bench gives me unease.

The one that no one guessed was obviously something like “you can pull one out of a hat”... I don’t remember the acronym exactly.

So when are the Yankees going to start beating the good teams?

Wow, Lidge really stinks this season.  What a flip from just a year ago.

DaPuj, was the 5! a Los Campesinos reference?

The Phils can’t possibly let him close in the PS—a long leash for likable veterans can go only so far.  I see some kind of committee involving not just Myers and Madson but Pedro as well. 

Holy sabermetrics Batman.  Joe Morgan, seemingly despite himself, just cited BABIP.

[21] From Jonathan’s story it sounds like Morgan wants to learn.  My guess is it takes him a while to be comfortable enough with a new stat to cite it.

What a flip from just a year ago.

I take it more as Phillies fluke year for Lidge.

I hope he wants to learn.  Has he dropped the stubborn refusal to read Moneyball?  Does he know now that Billy Beane didn’t write it?

5 minutes after referring to Mark Reynolds’ average on balls he puts in play, he ruined it with a breathtaking admission of ignorance.  Paraphrasing:

I found something out, Jon.  The MVP voters list their top 10 selections (ie he already knew that).  But in the Cy Young voting there’s only 1st, 2nd and 3rd place (ie he just learned that).

IIRC, he was interested in WHIP, not BABIP. Has he used that one yet?

While it is certainly not optimal to lose Hairston, his loss is a lot less important when it comes to the postseason. The best thing about Hairston is that you can plug him in at any infield position and know that he’ll be a better hitter than Ramiro Pena and, when Gardner was out, he was also able to play CF to give Melky a rest.

But now that Gardner is back, there’s no more real need for him in the outfield, and his ability to fill in for players to give them days off is a lot less important in the postseason when the infield won’t get days off to rest.

So while I’d prefer he stay healthy, I don’t feel too bad about going into the playoffs with just Pena as the back-up infielder (with Hinske, I suppose, as an emergency infielder, as well).

Good points Brian.  How fast is Ramiro BTW?  Couldn’t he be the pinchrunning dude off the bench, obviating the need for Freddy Guzman (who’s been talked about—here at least—as a keeper for October)?

(Joe Morgan just paid homage to small sample size).

I must be dreaming.  A series win in Anaheim.

Only if you think facing the Angels is an automatic series loss.

Sometimes when you win, you really lose, you know?

The Bosox loom.

The invincible Red Sox come to town. Yankees might be able to stay briefly competitive in the Paul Byrd game.

How fast is Ramiro BTW?

Above average speed.  I’d hazard he’s probably about Jeter’s equivalent; maybe a little faster but not quite the same instincts.  Guzman is about as fast as Gardner.  Let’s put it this way, if you wanted to put a runner on 2nd in place of Matsui to score on a single, Pena is fine.  If you wanted to put a runner on 1st to steal 2nd, you’d much rather have Guzman.

I didn’t get in on the Shelley Duncan (did you know his first name is really David?) discussion yesterday.  Thought I would today.  I’d put forth the argument that there is insufficient evidence of if he is a AAAA player.  Quite simply, the people who put forth that idea started with the fact they viewed him as a 4A player.  His line in 2007 is then put off as a SSS size fluke (83PA).  But then his 2008 line is used as proof that he can’t hit ML pitching (65PA).  It’s actually documented that his time in the majors last year he was suffering from a shoulder injury, that forced him to the DL not long after going back to the minors.

I’m not saying Shelley Duncan *is* capable of hitting ML pitching.  I *am* saying we haven’t seen sufficient evidence to determine it.  He’ll probably end up on a team like KC or something next year, and hopefully have a chance to prove if he can hit in the majors.  And of course if he does several (not all) of the same people who claimed he couldn’t hit pitching in the majors will blast Cashman for letting him go.

Shelly would be a nice fit in a lot of mediocre NL teams.  I’m not even sure he would do well in KC.

From my understanding a lot of teams have a Shelley Duncan type but just rather go with a poven veteran or a grit type player.

Even so Duncan is worth a shot on any number of team, including the Yankees. But I’m partial to givng the minor leaguers a shot.

[33] Yesterday’s dscussion of AAAA players started with me responding to a post that was based on a sample size of one at bat.  The basic gist of that point was that it should be unpossible for a guy to rake like Shelley at AAA and look clueless in the show (again, even for one at bat).  The basic gist of my reply was that this sort of thing is more common than one might think, even when the samples sizes aren’t all that small.  Now, while I do happen to think that Duncan’s usefulness at the major league level is severely limited, I certainly never wrote anything that could be construed as claiming that either is 2007 or 2008 MLB lines are adequate sample sizes for any kind of definitive analysis.

The biggest reason that I doubt Duncan’s ability to be particularly successful in MLB is that he will be 30 years old next week.  This is also the biggest obstacle to settling the argument, since it is likely to keep him from ever getting a shot at 400 MLB PA in a season, even with a team like Kansas City.  There are always a lot of “proven veterans” available who are in fact younger than Shelley Duncan, like his brother for instance, who has actually had some success at the major league level in a not-so-small sample.

[36]  Sorry, not buying it.

20. Posted at 4:06:27 pm on Wednesday, September 23, 2009 by MC in VA
[17] Happens all the time.  We call them AAAA players, remember?  I know the Shelley Duncan fan club doesn’t want to hear it, but he’s Andy Phillips, part deux.  Or Brian Myrow, part trois.

Sure, you didn’t specifically refer to either season.  But you specifically called him out here (and other places) as a AAAA player.  So either you’re doing that 100% subjectively, or you are using past performance.  If it is subjective, well, subjectively I think he can hit in the majors and I’ve probably seen him play more.  Objectively, I don’t think we have enough data.

Andy Phillips did indeed get plenty of chances to prove himself in the majors and failed.  Shelley hasn’t.  Yes, the fact that he’s 30 limits his chances.  But the main thing he needs for a team - I picked KC because looking at an AL team where he can DH more and one who is going to keep salary low - is to have a good Spring Training and then a good April.  If he does that he’ll get his 400PA…if he deserves them.  If he truly *is* an 80 OPS+ guy and is putting up numbers like that through June he won’t play.  If he has an OPS+ of 110 or 120 he’ll continue to play until he doesn’t do that any more.  Somebody somewhere will give him an ST invite.  If nothing else, a GM will want to look smart if Duncan pulls a Carlos Pena.

When did they decide to flip Chamberlain and Sabathia?  I guess it’s really important that Joba pitch every fifth day no matter what.  I suppose it makes a win on Saturday more likely, and gets the top three starters lined up nicely for the playoffs, but I’d have preferred that they take their best shot at winning the first game this weekend.

[37] I did call Duncan out as a AAAA player, and I stand by that.  What I did not do is claim to have definitive evidence in support of my opinion, just anecdotal evidence that the class of player does in fact exist.  Sorry if that distinction wasn’t clear.

And from the useless trivia/weird coincidence/Alanis Morrissette thinks it’s irony department: Andy Phillips scored on Shelley Duncan’s first major league home run.  OTOH, maybe it is ironic in the sense that a lot of things might have turned out differently for a lot of people if Duncan had gotten Philips’ playing time in 2007.

There’s more to consider with Shelley Duncan. By all accounts, he’s pretty rough defensively. That said, I am quite surprised that teams don’t take more of a shot on these AAAA players. For example, even with the sub par defense considered, why didn’t a team like the Mets try to snatch Duncan up for a C-level prospect to plug into the OF? A team like Pittsburgh and Washington also make sense. If he’s an 80 OPS+ guy, for those teams, he’s at the very least a cheap guy to plug in ther.

“Even so Duncan is worth a shot on any number of team, including the Yankees. But I’m partial to givng the minor leaguers a shot. “

I don’t understand this at all.  How many PAs constitute a “shot”?  Duncan has over 150 PAs with the Yankees over the last three years.  That may not be a totally adequate number on which to judge him, but I’m sure it’s a lot more than many career minor leaguers have gotten.  If 150 isn’t enough, do the Yankees have to give him 300?  600?  Are they obliged to name him their starting RF for 2010, in order to give him a sufficient opportunity to prove his major league mettle?  Major league teams obviously can’t give ALL of their farm hands a “shot” at MLB success, if by “shot” we’re talking a half season or more PAs.  They have to rely, to a great extent, on their professional judgment as to which minor leaguers are true prospects and which ones aren’t.  There’s no reason to think SD has been unfairly or arbitrarily dumped into the latter category when he clearly belongs in the former.

[38] That’s what I understand they are doing, lining CC up to pitch game 1 of the ALDS.

[39]  Fair enough.  And I *do* agree there are such things as AAAA players.  I think it’s hard to identify them because what may happen is the player comes up, performs poorly in a small sample, and is sent back down never to be seen again.  Though yesterday you were the leader of the pack so to speak, it also isn’t anything new here for people calling Duncan out as AAAA.  I’m certainly speaking as much to “those” people as I am to you - you just provided a convenient target.  And “they” have certainly played the SSS card both ways, with among others Gardner and Kennedy.

[40]  Well, one thing Phillips could do that Shelley can’t is play a pretty good defensive 1B.  But yeah, if Duncan had held up an OPS+ over 120 for that amount of time, he probably would have been given a longer leash last year and then who knows?

Going back to yesterday. I followed the pitch velocity by Burnett and noticed him often reaching 96. Some reports were at times he threw higher. What accounts for that?  Many games earlier he was most often at 93-94. Was it this uptick in velocity that helped him or was he controlling his pitches better, particularly the curve?

I think its crucial for him to step up. Boston 3-5 starters shaping up pretty well. Beckett had a strange outing last night. No homers allowed but 12 hits in 6 innings. Somehow I think he’ll likely find it when postseason arrives. Lester is money, Bucholtz is going well and Dice had a great return. We have a quite a challenge ahead.  One thing is that if Yanks win division there will be solace in knowing that if either Boston or LA loses, it will at least temporarily feel pretty good as both are pretty dispised by Yankee fans.

By all accounts, he’s pretty rough defensively.

Well he’s no Ichiro! out there, that’s for sure.  If you look at his Total Zone #‘s (MiL splits.com) he’s generally around average in the OF (between +/-4 each year).  He has a gun of an arm, and he never gives up on a ball.  He almost always looks awkward as hell out there, and when he makes a misplay he looks really bad.  From the stats and my own observiation in SWB, you could live with his defense if his batting is above average (for a corner OF).  Or he’d be fine as a 5th OF who only plays there in blowouts/emergencies.

If 150 isn’t enough, do the Yankees have to give him 300?  600?  Are they obliged to name him their starting RF for 2010, in order to give him a sufficient opportunity to prove his major league mettle?

Of course not.  The Yankees aren’t obliged to do anything.  For how many PA’s he needs to “prove” how good he is, SG can probably answer better than I.  I’d have a feeling to get a decent take on his true-talent it is probably pretty close to 1,000.  I’m not advocating that the Yankees should do anything with him (at least now).  If he decides to sign a minor-league deal with SWB and Yanks have multiple corner OF injuries next April, sure, call Duncan up for a month and see what he does.  If a team like KC - or Washington or Oakland or any low-payroll bottom-feeder - signs him I think they should give him as much of a chance as anyone of starting (OF or 1B or DH) and give him lots of PA, because a team like that needs cheap, productive hitters and I think Duncan can be one.  My point has been we shouldn’t throw a label like that on Duncan, until we have more evidence.

BTW, when Burnett was a Jay, he pitched at those speeds every time he faced NY when I listened on the radio. Announcers were always quoting 96-97 as I recall.

[44] I didn’t watch much of the game.  I’d imagine there could be multiple factors for the uptick in velocity - and control which it seems was better.  Better mechanics, better confidence, less fatigue, getting laid.  From the Angels radio voices, it sounded like he had a wicked curve.

I saw a headline on ESPN where John Kruk was going to discuss the worries for any playoff team, and the headline said something like, “one team w/o worries”.  Gee, I wondered, who could that be?  First paragraph:

Which of the teams likely headed to the playoffs have the most to figure out in the next two weeks? All of them except the Boston Red Sox.

And he blathered later about how great the Sox pitching is, and Yankees pitching is nothing past CC.  Really, ESPN should just change their name to “Red Sox Nation”.

Selig should consider expanding KC’s roster to 50 players to make room for all the players fans of other teams think ought to play there.

Just the fact that they have to start the playoffs by going out to Anaheim should be a major concern for the Red Sox.  The RS are still a sub-.500 team on the road.

OK, let’s say you’re a KC or Oakland.  You’ve got a decision to make between three guys to be your fourth OF/righty DH.  One of them is a 30 year old minor league FA who’s raked at AAA but never really got a fair shot in MLB and is out of options.  Your second choice is a 24 year old who came up through your own system, can play all three OF positions, but might never hit enough to stick in the show.  Door #3 is Mr. Proven Veteran, who is 28 and coming off a couple of rough seasons, but looked like he was going to be a star just a few short years ago.  Who do you think has the inside track?  Who has the toughest road?  Seems to me that the Shelley Duncan type has to beat the other two guys like a drum to be the one who gets the shot.  If it’s at all close with either one of them, he loses.  I’m not saying this is right, but I think it does make it a little easier to understand why we don’t see teams taking more flyers on these guys.

Not to defend Kruk or anything, but the RS starting pitching does look somewhat better than the Yankees’ heading into the playoffs.  Having said that, I don’t think the Yankees starting staff is weak, by any means.  I expect CC to be great, and I believe both AJ and Andy CAN be great.  The number 4 is a big question mark, but I don’t think any other teams are going to be running Bob Gibson out there as their number 4, either.

If the Yankees can hand it to Dice-K this weekend, I’d feel a bit better about a meeting in October.

So let’s actually look at David Shelley Duncan’s minor league track record.

Always had a low average in the minors and high strikeouts. Did not advance to AA until age 25, and for good reasons: despite being quite old for his league, he did not have an OPS over .800 in any prior season except age 22 at A-ball. The first time he sniffed AAA was when he was 26, and did not do well in his first try. His outlier season is the age 27 season in AAA, when he not only hit for a high average, but also for quite a bit of power in 387 PAs. It is quite possible he peaked at that point.

At this time he is a player who knows the IL very well, and also tendencies of specific pitchers. And he has had quite a bit of experience, so he has also mentally developed as a player. AAA is not really an all prospect league, it is a league of budding prospects who are there for a small stop on their way to majors, but also of those who are failed prospects/failed MLB players who hasn’t figured out how to transition to life beyond baseball and other roster fillers. His high strikeouts and low average in the minors are still an issue, and any respectable prospect maven tells you that those skills do not translate well in the majors.

Do you realistically expect the Yankees to give him a chance, when the likes of Ben Broussard, who actually had a couple of productive seasons in the majors are available for essentially the same price, and can be jettisoned without consequence?

[50]  Well sure, but (1) do they have that 24 year-old player?  (2) do they only have one need (they may need two corner OF’s, a DH, and a 1B, in addition to the bench) (3) is Mr. Proven Veteran willing to take a low-cost minor-league contract and an invitation to ST?  And I think teams do take lots of flyers on these guys: Cincy took one on Andy Phillips, correct?  And Tampa took one on Pena.  One place I can definitely see Duncan landing is Oakland, who desparately needs offense and desperately does *not* want to spend money.

[51] Part of the issue isn’t so much arguing if Boston’s staff is *better* per-se.  It’s the idea that the Yankees - best record, second best pythag - have issues w/ their rotation, and every other team has serious worries as well.  While Boston has NO worries at all.  And not just that their rotation is *better*, but that it’s great.  For example (and I only glanced at it so as not to hurt my eyes), Pettitte is a concern because he skipped a start and has only pitched one game since then.  But Dice isn’t a concern - is in fact a reason WHY the Sox are better - even though he just came off the DL and has only pitched two games.

Personally, I think the Yanks match up well in each “spot” with the Sox pitching.

[54] I’m pretty sure if Hughes was starting and having a Buccholz-type season, ESPN would say that the Yankees #3 starter is a question mark because of experience.  Because it’s the Red Sox, it’s just a given that Buccholz will be a shutdown playoff starter.

His high strikeouts and low average in the minors are still an issue, and any respectable prospect maven tells you that those skills do not translate well in the majors.

His first AAA experience was 48 PA, that’s fairly irrelevent.  And late bloomers do happen; his BA has been up the last two years.  And again I’ll reference Pena.  Pena had a better MiL record than Duncan.  But his first 6 years in the league w/ almost 2000PA he had an OPS+ of 110 (not great for a 1B) and K’d roughly once per game, with a .243 BA, and 5 times had given up on him.  And then he went to Tampa on a MiL contract and only made the team because of an injury, and suddenly is an All Star starting at age 29.  Yes, Pena IS the exception to the rule.

Do you realistically expect the Yankees to give him a chance

I’m pretty sure I’ve stated several times I do *not*.  I expect the Yankees to offer him a minor-league contract (they’re a little thin in the OF in AAA).  If he accepts, the only thing I expect of them is IF there is an opening on the ML roster for a corner OF (e.g. Swisher and whoever the other corner is both go on the 15-day at the same time), AND Duncan is still killing AAA pitching AND Jackson isn’t ready yet, they should give Shelley a shot for 2-3 weeks before making a trade.  What I think is realistic is that some low-budget, bottom feeder team should (and will) sign him to a MiL contract and give him an honest chance at making the team out of sprint training, and once there they should give him a half-season to see what he can do.

5 times

5 teams

Speaking of Shelley Duncan’s shortcomings, I was watching the replay of his misplay in the 5th and they had a reaction shot of Burnett.  Hilarious. You could actually see Burnett rolling his eyes, thinking “Are you kidding me?”

I agree the idea the RS have “no worries” going into the playoffs is ludicrous.  First, there’s the fact that they have to start out in Anaheim.  Second, as formidable as at least the top of their rotation looks, they will also be FACING pretty decent pitching.  I don’t think any team in the playoffs has any pitcher who is so dominant that he’s guaranteed to win whatever games he starts.  IOW, these games are all competitive—on paper.  Third, you just can’t predict baseball, and this is especially true in the case of short series.  Even assuming the RS have no particular worries about their postseason roster, they still probably have no better than a 25% chance to win it all.  Same for the Yankees, for that matter.  Against those odds, the only reason not to be worried is if you don’t care about losing.

[56] Carlos Pena is not the right comp for Shelley Duncan, looking at their minor league track records. Pena was always a top prospect, and with good reason. Was considered good defensively. Mastered AA in his age 22 seasons, and continued to rake throughout the minors with the exception of his age 24 season, where he nonetheless put up a season OPS of .820 (in 206 ABs). Duncan was playing high A ball at that point. And he did quite well for Detroit. When he was with the Yankees in 2007, Yankees signed Doug Mientkiewicz, which was a good signing given his defensive prowess, but never gave Pena a look at first base, and the likes of Josh Phelps, Andy Phillips, Miguel Cairo and yes, Shelley Duncan grabbed plate appearances at first base. Pena had an out clause that he exercised. The fact that he even had a out clause tells me that he had a higher bargaining power than Duncan will ever have with a major league club, mostly coming out of his previous prospect status and some success at the major league level.

I think the fact that Pena never got a shot with the Yankees had more to do with Joe Torre than Brian Cashman, but obviously I can’t prove it other than pointing to the ABs Miguel Cairo received playing first base. The other obvious thing is, due to historically good seasons from Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada, Yankees scored 968 runs, so they might have felt justified in making any decision they made on first base.

Further to my last comment, I see that the RS are 4 for 12 on the west coast this year.

I think the fact that Pena never got a shot with the Yankees had more to do with Joe Torre than Brian Cashman, but obviously I can’t prove it other than pointing to the ABs Miguel Cairo received playing first base. The other obvious thing is, due to historically good seasons from Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada, Yankees scored 968 runs, so they might have felt justified in making any decision they made on first base.

There were reports at the time (at Pinstripes Plus.com, iirc) that the Yankees didn’t call Pena up because his bat speed at Columbus appeared to be diminished.

Of course, the Red Sox treat the Angels like the Angels treat the Yankees, so it probably won’t end up mattering.

When we talk about the fact that three starters is all you may need in the post season, one thing may be often forgotten. If you have an outstanding 4th guy, he can be brought in as your first option for relief.

I really hope that Phil Hughes is handled a bit different in the post season. His talent needs to be maximized as much as possible.  Realistically, what should they do with Joba?  Should he be utilized as a one inning reliever over the next week to see if he is a better option than Bruney, etal?

BTW, I really like the idea of having Guzman on the bench for base stealing. Ideally, you won’t need him, but the playoffs have on paper at least the prospect of some tight games as we saw in LA over the past three days.

There were reports at the time (at Pinstripes Plus.com, iirc) that the Yankees didn’t call Pena up because his bat speed at Columbus appeared to be diminished.

I think it was a spin job; did his bat speed magically reappear upon moving to Pawtucket and then a brief stop at the Red Sox?

I think the reason is: Joe Torre never liked players with Pena’s skill set (three outcome kind of a guy), and thought he has had already one too many with Giambi. He would rather play Miggy at first than entertain the thought of a Carlos Pena, who will strike out too much for his taste.

Yanks have multiple corner OF injuries next April, sure, call Duncan up for a month and see what he does.  If a team like KC - or Washington or Oakland or any low-payroll bottom-feeder - signs him I think they should give him as much of a chance as anyone of starting (OF or 1B or DH) and give him lots of PA, because a team like that needs cheap, productive hitters and I think Duncan can be one.  My point has been we shouldn’t throw a label like that on Duncan, until we have more evidence.

KC was giving at bats to Mike Jacobs and Carlos Guillen all year. Yeesh. Although Jacobs is still cheap, I believe.

Duncan might have gotten a shot earlier this year (with Nady and Alex and Ranson out) but he wasn’t on the 40 man roster, right?

When did they decide to flip Chamberlain and Sabathia?

Maybe they want to get his inning count up now, since he’s not going to be on the PS roster. {ducks, running}

did his bat speed magically reappear upon moving to Pawtucket and then a brief stop at the Red Sox?

That would be the brief stop that led them to conclude he wasn’t worth keeping, right?  So I’m going to guess no.

He didn’t exactly rake at Columbus for a 28 year old 1B/DH in AAA.  He did hit exceptionally well in his SSS at Pawtucket.

he wasn’t on the 40 man roster, right?

Right.  They had to waive him to make room when they signed Teixeira.  They outrighted him to SWB when he cleared.

And just for the hell of it, I’d like to mention that Detroit gave up on Pena because the immortal Chris Shelton had a fluke season.  But nobody ever gives Dombrowski and Leyland any crap for letting Pena slip through their fingers.

That would be the brief stop that led them to conclude he wasn’t worth keeping, right?  So I’m going to guess no.

While this is true, that decision was not made in vacuum. Arguably, Red Sox had a better player manning the position in Kevin Youkilis that they still controlled. And Pena did have other options, and Tampa Bay took a chance.

BTW, when Burnett was a Jay, he pitched at those speeds every time he faced NY when I listened on the radio. Announcers were always quoting 96-97 as I recall.

Burnett’s average fastball velocities, 2002-2008.

2002: 94.9
2003: 92.8
2004: 95.4
2005: 95.6
2006: 94.9
2007: 95.1
2008: 94.3
2009: 94.2

I’m guessing he’s throwing like he always has, velocity-wise.  It probably just seems like he threw harder against the Yankees because numbers like 96-97 catch your attention and are more likely to be remembered than all those other fastballs that were ‘only’ 92 or 93 mph.

...that decision was not made in vacuum. Arguably, Red Sox had a better player manning the position in Kevin Youkilis that they still controlled…

No decision is made in a vacuum, but Lowell had one year left on his contract and Youkilis came up as a 3B, so I don’t think the Red Sox felt that Pena was useless to them.  The biggest thing was that (as you note) Pena had something to say about it too.  He had enough leverage and other options to walk away from teams like Boston and New York and seek an opportunity where he had a better shot at real playing time.

Pena was also part of the 3 way trade that brought us the mortal Jeff Weaver and sent Ted Lily to the As

I think most of us here have are a little too optimistic about the Yankees starters versus the Sox starters. Christina Kahrl at Baseball Prospectus ranks the Sox rotation far ahead of the Yankees, rightly in my opinion. I honestly don’t see how anyone can compare CC, Pettitte, AJ and Joba to Beckett, Kester, a healthy DiceK and Buckholtz (3.49 ERA)

I honestly don’t see how anyone can compare CC, Pettitte, AJ and Joba to Beckett, Kester, a healthy DiceK and Buckholtz (3.49 ERA)

SG, sounds like a challenge!

I think most of us here have are a little too optimistic about the Yankees starters versus the Sox starters. Christina Kahrl at Baseball Prospectus ranks the Sox rotation far ahead of the Yankees, rightly in my opinion. I honestly don’t see how anyone can compare CC, Pettitte, AJ and Joba to Beckett, Kester, a healthy DiceK and Buckholtz (3.49 ERA)

Because they have had a chance to beat up on the Baltimore and Blue Jays recently? And would have lost the series at home to the Angels if not for incredibly bad umpiring?

How about the fact that the Red Sox continue to be a bad road team (below .500) despite all this pitching? Also, would that opinion have changed if Mariano Rivera could just simply have saved the game against the Mariners, which he does with frightening frequency?

Honestly, I think they are reacting to a two game swing engineered by the rare Rivera blown save and the gift win from the umpires to the Red Sox.

AJ and to a lesser extent Joba are the keys to the strength of the rotation and the chances of our success come post season because as Serling would say you just can’t predict what kind of a game AJ will give you.

Lester’s very good and very consistent, but not invincible.  Beckett is susceptible to the long ball, and the Yankees are pretty good at hitting the long ball.  I’m not convinced that Matsuzaka is healthy, and don’t really understand why everyone is.  He’s had exactly one quality start since he came back.  Buchholz has been pitching well, but mostly against weak teams.  And if you get any one of these guys out of the game before the seventh inning, the Red Sox are likely to have a problem closing it out.

How many people wouldn’t have taken the Braves’ pitching over just about anyone else’s in most years from 1996-2005?  How’d that work out?

I’m not convinced that Matsuzaka is healthy, and don’t really understand why everyone is.  He’s had exactly one quality start since he came back.  Buchholz has been pitching well, but mostly against weak teams.

Dice-K also has a FIP of 5.2 and is walking more than 4 batters per-nine.  Buchholz is walking almost as many but K’ing less than 6 per nine and has a FIP of 4.29 (Pettitte is better in all 3 categories than him).  Basically, CC is as good as Lester, Burnett and Beckett are similar - Beckett is better, but either could shut you down or be blown out - and Pettitte is better than anyone else Boston has.  So basically it is the 4th starter, which for Boston is at best average and for the Yankees is unknown.  It’s not that Boston’s rotation is weak, but any advantage they have over the Yanks is small, and Yankees offense is better to make up for it.

I feel (a guess) that if Yanks are down in the series OR up 3-0 going into game 4 CC will be pitching.  I don’t think Girardi will want to go down any further than he is, and he’ll want to close it out right there if it is 3-0.

May all your predictions come true but in 96 I think the Braves were the better team despite our victory and in 01 we were the better team despite our unlucky demise in game 7. If AJ pitches the way he did against us last year and CC’s past post season failures were an anomaly our staff matches up with anyone and we do have our best 8th inning guy since 96.  Anyway lets get past the Tigers and Verlander/Jackson first and I hope the Angels crush Boston just because I like to see Boston lose.

<blockquote>I think most of us here have are a little too optimistic about the Yankees starters versus the Sox starters. Christina Kahrl at Baseball Prospectus ranks the Sox rotation far ahead of the Yankees, rightly in my opinion. I honestly don’t see how anyone can compare CC, Pettitte, AJ and Joba to Beckett, Kester, a healthy DiceK and Buckholtz (3.49 ERA) <blockquote>

Kahrl’s “analysis” was ridiculously short-sighted, only looking at this season.  I do intend to look at this question in proper detail closer to the postseason.  While her conclusion may or may not be correct, I wouldn’t cite Kahrl’s supposed analysis as valid because it isn’t.

in 96 I think the Braves were the better team despite our victory and in 01 we were the better team despite our unlucky demise in game 7

My point was just that even if we “know” who has the “better” pitching, the better pitchers don’t always pitch better.  And if the Yanks had won in 2001 it would have been the most lopsided case of the team that played better losing in the history of the world series.

Oh did you guys notice that ESPN launched ESPN Boston as a new local service?

I see no reason to pick that as your test market unless you are specifically BIASED

Oh, and regarding Buchholz’s 3.49 ERA, his peripherals indicate he’s not pitched that well (FIP of 4.29, K/9 of 5.82, BB/9 of 3.84).

Oh did you guys notice that ESPN launched ESPN Boston as a new local service?

Actually, they have had ESPN Chicago for a while now. Of course, no one reads it because morons like Gene Wojo writes for it.

There will be a ESPN New York somewhere down the line, I am sure.

If I had to make a line on a Boston/NY series I’d make it pretty close to pickem, their rotation is a little more reliable and we have the extra home game.  That said I think the Halos would be easier despite our many sad past performances against them and while it would be just as sweet to beat LA it would be far less painful to lose to them.

There will be a ESPN New York somewhere down the line

...catering to displaced Boston natives looking for the local take on what’s happening in Redsox Nation.