I hate to quibble with your math, but I fail to see where your calculations weigh the importance of playing the game the right way.

Congrats to Jason Bay on making Damon seem like a competent LFer! I really hope Boston finds a way to keep him around.

DeJesus has some nice numbers, just sayin’...

Elvis got screwed.

[3] Maybe my perception is wrong, but it seems that not many rookies win Gold Gloves.

[4] Which (not that this is relevant) maybe makes some sense - if the guy was good last year, he probably wasn’t just lucky good this year.

So the numbers don’t add up to 0 per position per year, do they?  Or do they?  Say someone comes up with a better way to play SS, then all teams adopt it - replacement level gets reset at some point?  Or is the context always changing, as I think I’ve seen for position-weighted offensive stats?

[3] Maybe my perception is wrong, but it seems that not many rookies win Gold Gloves.

Ichiro is the only one that comes to mind.  But it’s a bit different for players coming over from Japan, I guess.

Of course rookies are less likely to put up the important impressive offensive #s.  Or (I think) play on the best, most-attended-to teams, if that’s actually significant.

Has the defensive issue regarding The Green Monster and defensive numbers ever been cleared up? Seems more than a little coincidental to me that Bay’s stats would be so poor on the heels of Manny’s historically bad numbers.

So the numbers don’t add up to 0 per position per year, do they?  Or do they?  Say someone comes up with a better way to play SS, then all teams adopt it - replacement level gets reset at some point?  Or is the context always changing, as I think I’ve seen for position-weighted offensive stats?

I can’t speak definitively for UZR although I assume it does, but the system I use with ZR does compare players to their peers at the same position for that specific league and season.

For an extreme example, I’ll refer to Alex Rodriguez’s 2007-2009 defensive numbers per zone rating.

In 2007, Rodriguez had a ZR of .765 (convertd 76.5% of fieldable chances at 3B into outs.  In 2008, his ZR was .786.  In 2009 his ZR was .757. 

His runs saved per season?

2007: + 1
2008: -1
2009: -6

He rated worse compared to average in 2008 despite actually fielding a higher percentage of fieldable chances because the league 3B went from a ZR of .761 to .791.  In 2009, they went back down a bit to .785.

Comparing players to their peers doesn’t always work well when you start to compare across different seasons and eras sometimes because the talent level isn’t constant (see the ‘27 Yankees), but I think it’s the best way to judge players in-season.  That’s why I prefer to do my positional adjustments based on the season in question instead of doing a blanket one that never changes, although I can see the arguments for both.

Has the defensive issue regarding The Green Monster and defensive numbers ever been cleared up?

Zone rating still carries the Green Monster penalty, which is usually in the -10 to -15 range in a single season depending how BIP distribution plays out.  UZR supposedly adjusts for it, but it does seem odd that Manny suddenly rates so much better now that he’s out of Fenway.

FWIW, Bay has consistently been a negative defender since 2006, with a RSAA of -7, -11 in 2007, and -22 in 2008.  Only 2008 had the Green Monster issue, and only for part of the season.

He’s likely just not a good defender, although maybe he should be closer to a -10 than a -16.

I really wouldn’t touch Bay as a free agent.

UZR has park factors for each outfield position, which seems like it would fix the Green Monster, but it is suspicious.  Maybe the Red Sox tell their outfielders to play in a way that happens to make their UZR look bad but is presumably more effective overall.

Tex, Polanco, Longoria and Ichiro are fine picks (they really should have specific LF, CF, RF picks, IMO).  Mauer is understandable, and given that Catcher defense is probably the most difficult to measure, I can’t work up much outrage on behalf of Mr. Laird.

The others are pretty bad.

Wait, how could Jeter have possibly won a gold glove? I though he had no range left at all and had regressed to the point where he would have to be put in left within two years?

That comment doesn’t really work, because he was winning Gold Gloves when he sucked.

Wait, how could Jeter have possibly won a gold glove? I though he had no range left at all and had regressed to the point where he would have to be put in left within two years?

Save that for when Posada wins his Gold Glove.

I am surprised how poorly Ellsbury was.

Jeter also won the Nobel Peace Prize. Oh wait.

UZR has park factors for each outfield position, which seems like it would fix the Green Monster, but it is suspicious.  Maybe the Red Sox tell their outfielders to play in a way that happens to make their UZR look bad but is presumably more effective overall.

Could be the case if they ask their LFers to play borderline catchable balls off the carrom and limit hitters to single rather than an extra base hit, or try to get an advancing runner at second base.

But it’s a bit different for players coming over from Japan, I guess.

Grrr… Angel Berroa… grrr…

so melky is only a little bit worse than curtis granderson?

so melky is only a little bit worse than curtis granderson?

Well, in 2009, yeah.  Granderson’s been better than this for most of his career though.  Eyeballing Granderson’s defensive projection for 2010, it’d probably be somewhere around +6, and Melky would project right around average.

Gardner probably projects around +10 in 2010 FWIW.