Ultra house money lineup without the prerequisite clinched series

I wasn’t all that far off in the last thread.

We’ll probably win one game against Boston. And that will probably be enough.

A-Rod really should be DHing instead of Matsui.

... for now.

Glad to here you’re safely elevated and dry, SG.  I figured, seeing as how you live in mom’s basement and all, you were a certain goner.  This could be the Almighty’s way of telling you your stats and spreadsheets need to be tossed into the rapids.

“hear” not “here”

Po, Swisher, Damon and Alex on the bench ready to come in after the pivotal bunt(s). I like our chances!

By which I mean, ability to get a lead only to fall as the mighty play the game the right way Angels of Los Anaheim rally with a series of bloops and sloppy Yankee errors in the 8th or 9th.

We should get to see some awesome relief pitching today.

IPK takes home the win.

Was going to say D-Rob gets the 4-out save, but no.

Pretty good cuts against Kaz so far. I’m confident we can scratch out maybe 2 runs.

And so it begins…

AJ realizes it’s not Posado behind the plate, right? He can pitch good now.

The dreaded 2-out AB’s.

AJ looking reasonably crisp there. The strikeout of Aybar was pure nast.

How does someone hit like Mike Schmidt in AAA and look so clueless in the bigs?

How does someone hit like Mike Schmidt in AAA and look so clueless in the bigs?

Not enough at bats to get his timing down?

Someone has to plunk Morales.  This is getting annoying.

[17] Happens all the time.  We call them AAAA players, remember?  I know the Shelley Duncan fan club doesn’t want to hear it, but he’s Andy Phillips, part deux.  Or Brian Myrow, part trois.

AJ is throwing gas accorind got the YES gun

Gameday agrees—96 and 97.

You know, Jeter should make that play.

“We call them AAAA players, remember?”

Is there clear evidence such players exist?

Is there clear evidence such players exist?

I think there are quite a few players that qualify - players that do very well over their careers in the minors but just can’t adjust to Major League pitching.

Strikes!

2 outs danger zone.

AJ has good stuff today, I think he was just messing around with Battle Mode to prepare for the playoffs.

“players that do very well over their careers in the minors”

Age-adjusted?

Yay J!

Ok, I’m pumped for the playoffs.

[17] Happens all the time.  We call them AAAA players, remember?  I know the Shelley Duncan fan club doesn’t want to hear it, but he’s Andy Phillips, part deux.  Or Brian Myrow, part trois.

I can dig that, but a Kev Maas or Shane Spencer flame out would be nice. Though I guess, Duncan had that 2 season ago.

“Yay J!”

Took me a second.

In the last LAA-BOS game, the Angels sac bunted TWICE in the 9th inning.  That’s some hardcore small ball.

I think the Angels will be the first team to successfully execute THREE sac bunts in one inning, and it will of course be against the Yankees in a playoff game.

Similarly, HAJK.

Too bad Gardner can’t hit.

I think the Angels will be the first team to successfully execute THREE sac bunts in one inning, and it will of course be against the Yankees in a playoff game.

They will do so without the benefit of a walk, hit or HBP, and they will score seven runs in the inning.

Okay.  You’re Jose Molina.  A very speedy guy has gotten on base ahead of you.  You know you suck at hitting.  You’re facing a pitcher that sometimes gets into trouble with pitch-counts.  Obviously swing away.

Look at Molina. And they call TEIXEIRA consistent?

Jeterian?

I’m glad I’m nowhere near a TV.

Shouldn’t Molino have taken a couple of pitches there, to give TSBG a chance to steal?

Age-adjusted?

Does it matter?  I’m excluding most players with less than 2 years of MiL play.

I’ve seen this show before, and it sucked.

Is there clear evidence such players exist?

Shelley Duncan…  Andy Phillips…  Brian Myrow…

[41] I meant are there players who have high MLEs, fail in the majors in a fair sample, then go back to the MiL and put up good #s again, adjusted for being old for AAA (if they are)?

Maybe Duncan beats up 22-year-olds in AAA.

For those with a TV - how nasty was that 3-pitch strike out to Abreu?  Did he even take the bat off of his shoulder?

A+nasty++

“Shelley Duncan… Andy Phillips… Brian Myrow… “

That’s just anecdotal at that sample size.  Phillips didn’t get anything like a season to find his stroke, did he?  Dunno who Myrow is.

I would like to congratulate the Texas Rangers on their 2010 AL West Championship. Because if the Angels plan on letting Vlad, Chone, and Lackey walk to save money and use Matthews as a full-time OFer next season, they will not be winning that division.

Good catch by Gardner on the Hunter fly?

Maybe Duncan beats up 22-year-olds in AAA.

I assume it’s probably those type of players excel at fastball and mistake pitches, which happens more regularly in the AAA no age adjustment necessary and a lot less in the majors. Though I guess you are asking for something more empirical.

Teix!

[45] Ridiculously nasty. Looked like it was going to hit Abreu, then broke back into the zone at the last possible second. Video game-esque.

[48] And bad non-catch on the Teixeira double?

Wow, WJ almost nailed it with the line-up.

I know Hinske isn’t all that great historically against LH pitching, but if there is any reasonable basis to expect that Shelley Duncan would be able to hit major league pitching from either hand, I would like to know about it.

Wow, just saw the lineup.  House money extraordinare.  Woohoo!  It would be extra sweet to win this one.

Would Boston be interested in getting Vlad as a dh and letting Ortiz go via trade? I’d hate to see him in Fenway. He’s one scary hitter. I realize his legs are shot but like Matsui he can still rake.

Has Jeter had an rbi in the past two weeks? He’s not looked very good at the plate despite his several singles. He’s sure not driving anything but his Ford these days.

How did the rest of the AL let Kazmir fall to the Angels?  What’s his contract status?

Speak of the devil, big at bat here. Bunt?

There are several guys that look good on the minors, but don´t amount to much in MLB. Look for guys like Andy Marte, or other failed top prospects. Very good players, but missing something to make the transition.

Sam, Shelley is about to provide you with some reasonable basis right here.

Shelley, MC is dissing you.
Show him what a forearm feels like!

For fuck sake.

[55] I believe Kazmir is owed something like $22 million through 2012.

After seeing Duncan in a few brawls, he looks like he wants to beat up everyone.

Yankee baserunning….awful.

“For fuck sake”

Yankees FAIL?

[57] Bad scouting in the minors then?  I might even entertain a mental component, since it’s a big life change.

It’s just that the whole idea of an MLE is that AAA and the majors differ in degree, not kind.  It’s not like no one throws a curve in AAA, or that there are no lefties there, anyway afaik.

Sam, Shelley is about to provide you with some reasonable basis right here.

Ok, I’m sold.

Yankees may not score a run this inning, but that would have nothing to do with Mr. Duncan.

[61] Correction - It’s $8 million in 2010, $12 million in 2011 and a $13.5 million option or 2 million buyout in 2012.

Has Jeter had an rbi in the past two weeks? He’s not looked very good at the plate despite his several singles. He’s sure not driving anything but his Ford these days.

I think he’s been a little unlucky with some liners, but I’m just going from memory.

Didn’t Kazmir used to be a low 90s guy? He’s throwing some serious heat today.

Why are they showing highlights of Cano batting with RISP from previous seasons?

Huh? how did that happen?

Phillips didn’t get anything like a season to find his stroke, did he?

He got 470 PA over two seasons.  Maybe you don’t think that’s enough, but as I’ve stated before, the same people who clamored for Shelley Duncan to get more of a shot would have wanted Girardi shot if he’d given Shelley the chance to put up a an OPS+ of 72 in 263 PA this season.

Your age-adjustment question is often going to be problematic, since guys who fail at the MLB level and get sent back down are almost always going to wind up being old for their level.

Anyway, if you believe that there is a significant talent jump between AAA and MLB, it should not be so hard to accept that there are players too good for AAA but not quite good enough for MLB.

And Brian Myrow is a guy who put up multiple 1.000+ OPS seasons in the minors (mostly in the Yankees system) but only got a handful of PA in the show.

And oh, BTW, yay runs!

One of Serling’s sillier you can’t predict raps.  You might predict the line drive but how could you predict it going off his glove and then Tex getting thrown out at home

Cano comes through.  I love runs.

Multiple run-scoring events in one inning?  Whoa.

I will drink the Melk-aid!

I’m sensing the 1/2 game victory for the Yankees here! Go Yanks.

“but only got a handful of PA in the show”

Well, ok.

“the same people who clamored”

That’s their problem.

“it should not be so hard to accept that there are players too good for AAA but not quite good enough for MLB”

I don’t understand this on the basis of MLE.  We’re talking about players who according to their MiL performance should be ok in the ML but aren’t (excluding injury etc.) - anyway, that’s what I meant.

i feel like the umps have sucked in this series. is it just me?

Is it just me or has the HP umpiring become really bad this season?  That first pitch to Morales was clearly a strike, Burnett just missed his spot and Molina had to reach back to get it from his position on the outside of the plate?

He still gets the K but it’s frustrating to see umpires base there B/S calls on catcher positions sometimes.

Schteeve and I are not the same person, I promise.

[78] OK, to clarify, I’m saying it’s a limitation of MLE.  Baseball is a game of adjustments, and the biggest one is the one to MLB.  The players who fail to live up to their MLE are unable to make that adjustment.  Then they go back to AAA, and as you noted, beat up on kids to produce even more impressive MLE.

FWIW it’s usually striking to me how well gameday and the umpires agree, allowing for no low strikes and the outside strike to LHB.  It seems like there’s a population of excellent umpires plus a few who should be replaced.

No, it’s really been the past five seasons or so.
I remember, about then, how virtually every announcer was commenting on the outrageous number of insupportably bad calls… and it’s never been fixed.

But we should respect the umps, because… well, just because.  Same reason as with cops.

Is there actually an argument occurring about the existence of AAAA players? They do exist, and I have seen them, you might even have heard rumors about them, they call them the National League.

[84] Umps have guns?

[86]
Cattle prods this year, ted - didn’t you hear?

I love how the third pitch to Kendrick was definitely strike three, but since its the Angels and its Kendrick, it was called a ball.  So Burnett decided to K him the hard way.

Rilke, again, almost all top position players prospects where very, very good at the minors, but couldn´t handle MLB, MLE or no MLE. Delmon Young, Andy Marte, Felix Pie, ... The list is just too large. There is a gap in dificulty between the levels, and the MLEs are the best stat proxy for how a player will perform, but my guess is their error bars are significantly larger than regular prediction.

“The players who fail to live up to their MLE are unable to make that adjustment”

Ok, I have argued for an adjustment skill to support the ratchet hypothesis for TSBG, so I have to go along with this.  I’m going to provisionally conclude that there are probably in fact very few AAAA players but some non-negligible number of slow-adjustment players who aren’t able to show enough in time to stick in the ML.

Not that it’s that big of a deal, I stayed in a hotel in Alexandria while visiting DC this summer. Aside from the regular capitol sights, went to Eden Center for dinner and Wolf Trap for an opera. Was fun. Or that has nothing to do with your “in VA” experience?

The radio voices are so annoying.

8 Ks.

Good AJ > Bad AJ

I’m getting nervous waiting for the inning where he accidentally suddenly gives up 5 runs.
When, AJ?  When?

Competent AJ, you made it just in time.

8 of 12 outs coming by K.  Is that a good start?

called them the National League

Ha.

Hope good AJ decides to stick around for a while.

Every ballplayer aspires to consistency.
Molina is the MVP.

Each time Molina bats, I am consistently reminded of Dennis Eckersley’s voice and exhortation on TV: “This guy is an out. Beckett needs to get him.”

I’m getting nervous waiting for the inning where he accidentally suddenly gives up 5 runs.

When, AJ?  When?

Less innings left to go now, so the blow up inning is #######.