The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Sunday, September 20, 2009

Yankees (95-54) @ Mariners (77-72), Sunday, September 20, 2009, 4:10pm **Game Chatter**

NYY: Joba L Chamberlain (23, RHP, 8-5, 4.38 ERA, 4.55 FIP, 1.0 WAR) vs SEA: Ian D Snell (27, RHP, 4-2, 4.86 ERA, 5.75 FIP, 0.2 WAR)

Lineups
New York Yankees
Derek Jeter, SS (.329/.396/.463, 5.1 WAR)
Johnny Damon, LF (.290/.370/.506, 3.5 WAR)
Mark Teixeira, 1B (.289/.381/.566, 4.9 WAR)
Alex Rodriguez, 3B (.285/.407/.514, 3.2 WAR)
Hideki Matsui, DH (.280/.370/.519, 2.0 WAR)
Jorge Posada, C (.281/.359/.522, 1.1 WAR)
Robinson Cano, 2B (.323/.354/.521, 3.1 WAR)
Melky Cabrera, RF (.275/.335/.419, 1.2 WAR)
Brett Gardner, CF (.283/.348/.406, 1.6 WAR)
Total,  (.296/.371/.499, 25.7 WAR)

Seattle Mariners
Ichiro Suzuki, RF (.357/.388/.470, 4.7 WAR)
Franklin Gutierrez, CF (.278/.328/.414, 2.9 WAR)
Jose Lopez, 2B (.268/.301/.463, 0.1 WAR)
Ken Griffey Jr., DH (.215/.322/.394, -1.1 WAR)
Adrian Beltre, 3B (.260/.297/.371, 0.2 WAR)
Bill Hall, LF (.231/.273/.396, 0.6 WAR)
Mike Carp, 1B (.270/.349/.459, 0.2 WAR)
Adam Moore, C (.000/.000/.000, -0.1 WAR)
Josh Wilson, SS (.230/.272/.391, 0.1 WAR)
Total,  (.278/.326/.426, 7.6 WAR)

Yankee Win Probability: 63.4%

Whatever.

--Posted at 2:05 pm by SG / 134 Comments | - (186)

Comments

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Man, the Tigers just look awful

I guess the best possible outcome is for Minnesota and Detroit to fight it out until the the last day of the season so that neither can set up their starters for the ALDS.

It’s great to see that Posada is back, although I never mind watching Cervelli play.

I’d love to see the Twins in a division series matchup - better than having to face Verlander and Jackson in games 1 and 2.

Jeter is playing at a really high level this season.

Ian Snell is going to make this a very pleasurable game methinks.

Underwhelming.

If the YES gun is accurate, this is the best 1st inning velo Joba has shown this season.

[8] gameday isn’t that far along yet.

I’m still in the Top of the 1st on GD, did something weird happen after Matsui’s flyout because it seems to have really screwed the system up.

[8] not making much of a difference.

what in the hell

I think it’s fair to say that if they do somehow fail to come back and win this one, THEN folks can rightfully freak out a bit.

[13] not concerned about anything but the starting pitcher.  he’s barely facing an ML lineup

Joba isn’t keeping the ball down.

not concerned about anything but the starting pitcher.  he’s barely facing an ML lineup

Agreed.

Yeah, this is a little dispiriting.  I can’t see how he can be given the ball in a playoff game.

So, are we ready to say that Joba should be in long relief for the postseason (at least this year)?  If he can do what he did in that role previously, he would be very valuable.

[18] No, at this point he should be buried deep in the BP in the postseason unless he starts to show something soon. I would prefer to see a number of relievers over Joba right now.

He shouldn’t pitch at all in the postseason.  This raises a pretty serious rotation issue at some point.  Wonder if the team is still delighted that they kept Hughes in the bullpen all season.

[18] I see no reason to expect his old form to suddenly reappear in the pen.

Unless you mean mop up duty. Joba has been very depressing.

Joba Chamberlain, master of the pitch count.

Oy vey.

Can Girardi make one of those mound-visits packing?

We’d better hope that Pettitte is convincing tomorrow.  Without a fastball, Chamberlain really doesn’t belong in the majors right now.

Bob’s Big Boy has impressed me with his toughness. I cannot say similar in regards to Joba or AJ.

So very much of this game is mental.

[20] I tried to explain that Hughes should have been starting…

I’m still hoping there’s a secret plan.

Oy vey, again.

I’ll say it again. Would it hurt to have another pitching expert work with him?

At this point, with the results being basically meaningless, I can’t even imagine that I’ll get much satisfaction if there’s a comeback.

Meaningless? We are going to blow this fucking division.

[18], that’s all well and good for the ALDS, but in a seven game series you actually need a fourth starter.

You’re actually proposing we throw Gaudin out there in the playoffs? I mean, I guess he or Mitre both look better than Joba right now, which is sad, but that’s Jaret fricking Wright all over again. puke

[32] I wouldn’t be opposed to that. What about Cone?

[33] Tell that to the Tigers.  It’s pretty damn hard to do.  The team’s going in as the best in the AL.  And they’re going to have to hope that Burnett gives them something and that Pettitte is actually well enough to pitch.

We’ll never be able to laugh at the 2007 Mets again

The AL east is slip sliding away. Bosox in KC, Yanks in Anaheim. I know, it will still be 4 in the loss column. But by Friday how many will it be (in the loss colmn)?

Is this team settling for the WC?

[29] I’ll say it again - we don’t know who the Yanks have consulted.  And there’s not a lot of time to be futzing with the parameters.

In fact, I’d have to say time is up for the year.  I’d rather go with IPK at this point.  Not sure if it’s too much of a diss to leave Joba off the roster entirely, but maybe he’s just hit his effective innings limit.

I actually believe the Red Sox are going to have a tougher than expected series in KC. But all of a sudden the last series with the Red Sox is going to be far from meaningless as I’d hoped.

I’m not worried about the division lead at all.

[37] Mentioned that several days ago.

They will be in the post season though, so really not the same as the Mets.

Eh, whatever.  Maybe Phil Hughes (who was supposed to be the better pitcher far and away until someone got tired of his CHOKING at age 21) can start Game 4 and give them 18 or so pitches.

I’ll say it again - we don’t know who the Yanks have consulted.  And there’s not a lot of time to be futzing with the parameters.

In fact, I’d have to say time is up for the year.

Quite true, well stated.

Damon should have taken Singleton’s advice. Fuck me.

And please don’t say anything about IPK.  He’s always been a distant third in my estimation.  Given that Joba’s still #2, that’s saying something.

Hit one out A-Rod.

[39] You’re right they may have (I have acknowledged that possibility in other posts), but if they haven’t consulted anyone, they should. There may not be a lot of time “to be futzing with parameters,” but otoh, how much of a contribution can he be expected to make this season, all things being equal? 

If, however, they haven’t consulted with anyone else at this point because they share your concerns about the timeframe, there is no reason not to do it during the offseason.

Crap on a stick. Horrible.

nice to see that Joba has rediscovered his high, riding fastball.  maybe if he starts every game 7 runs in the tank he’ll start throwing it more often

Joba sucks. He’s good when he throws 97. He can’t, physically, do that anymore. He can be a mediocre pitcher and post a few 4.50 ERA seasons but he is never going to be special unless he gets that velocity back.

Four pitch walk to the immortal Mike Carp.

He’s getting it up there.  FSW has him 94, 95.  He just hasn’t pitched in a game in several weeks where he’s been able to spot more than one pitch at a time.  If he’s even spotted that one pitch

Joba can’t throw it by people at that velocity because it’s a crappy fastball.

[51] Where did the velocity go? Injury? Or flash in the pan?

Problem, as I see it, is between Joba’s ears, period. He needs a sports pyschologist,or three, to work with him.

My mlb.tv is broken. It says the Mariners didn’t score that inning.

[48] The evil of the day is sufficient unto the day thereof.

Don,
  Did you miss the major shoulder injury he suffered last year? I believe it’s 100 percent physical.

[51, 55] I agree to the point, but his control/command has completely disappeared as well.

He showed earlier in the year he can pitch well without a mid to high 90s fastball, providing he locates it.

[55] No, it was those goddamn 25 innings in the bullpen in 2007.  As though he’d suddenly “arrived.”  Combined with the Wang injury this year, it’s been impossible to send him down.  Because as much as the development of Josh Towers and Kei Igawa matters to the organization, Joba would really have benefited from the age-appropriate development step of working on AAAA hitters for a couple of months.

[57] Any lawyer will tell you that there’s a duty to mitigate damages.

Why do you think lack of command is a mental issue? If he needs to muscle up to hit even 94 that could really be screwing with his command.

[62] I think its a combination. I didn’t make that clear.

That play was sick.

[60] Are you suggesting they trade him to the NL for a while, AAAA hitters?

If he is truly injured, why is he not on the DL?

Not injured, just no longer physically able to do what he once did. Like Don Mattingly in 1992.

[65] I was thinking of the guys in the IL who have ML experience but who are, well, back in the IL

The point of the proverb is that you can’t fix Joba in the offseason (in the to me unlikely scenario that there’s some magic fix beyond rest and starting up clean) today, so why stress about it?  I hope the Yankees don’t do something stupid over the winter, or fail to do something smart, but that’s true about everything.

[69]->[61].

So, if the point is to stretch Joba out, why not send him back out there?

[70] No, man, it’s over.  In case you missed it, Weekly James Andrews has informed us that Joba is as Mattingly ca. ‘92…a 31 year old gimp

No, I wasn’t saying that. I was just trying to explain the difference between someone who is injured and someone who, because of injuries or physical deterioration, is no longer able to do what they once were. Joba could well turn into an ok pitcher at his current level, or he could regain velocity and be what we once thought he was…but right now I don’t believe he is physically capable of doing what he once did.

[67] I don’t accept that.

I’ll reference the three post AS break performances, fresh off a long rest. Joba admitted it cleared his head, to have that break.

[74] That’s nonsense, though. Joba can say that, but there’s no indication that the rest had anything to do with it. To wit, Joba had a long break between starts when the Yankees were first trying to limit his innings. He got shelled, then blamed the long break.  So that’s that.

Joba is also kind of a whiner, IMHO.

[69] Roy Hallady was sent to the mLs in 2001 after some intial ML success.

“We had to re-create his confidence,” former Blue Jays manager Buck Martinez said. “And that step was to start him back in (Class) A ball. No one deserves credit more than Roy Halladay because it could have gone either way.”

[snip]

It was there that Halladay, at the suggestion of minor league pitching instructor Mel Queen, lowered his arm angle. The result was Halladay had much more movement on his pitches.

I’m not necessarily arguing for a mL assignment. OTOH, there may be a mechanical fix that another pitching “coach” can accomplish.

IOW, be proactive, i.e., mitigate the damage.

[73] That speaks to a lot of the problems.  People thought he was what he was because he threw really hard for 25 innings and could hold a cup of iced coffee well for Dunkin.  At the same time they soured on Hughes and Joba became the hot flavor of the week.  And he’s been treated like a baby god for a while now, which only makes it worse on him mentally when he craps the bed.  It always seemed to me like the Yankees would be fine if Hughes turned out well and Joba turned out to be a decent 3rd starter. 

Right now he’s about a decent 6th starter.  Which is annoying.

People thought he was what he was because he threw really hard for 25 innings and could hold a cup of iced coffee well for Dunkin

He also threw really hard as a STARTER in 2008. Watch the video tape of the 7 shut out innings against the Red Sox. He tops out at 98.

Can Coney suit up for Game 4?

I fear Weekly is right. I think the fastball command issue is directly related to overthrowing. When No. 7 hitters are getting around on everything you throw, it tends to make one a head case.  I go along with the physical theory.  It’s possible that the injury is tolerable to pitch through.  Joba like Wang has a lot to gain by staying in the majors, in terms of future money. Problem though is to cash in you have to have some semblance of success. Joba seems to be a all or nothing proposition. If his K game isn’t working he doesn’t seem to have a Mussina/Pettitte type of ability to stay in the game. This is likely a result of not having much experience being so-so. Going through the minors he blew the competition away.

What I can’t figure out though is the few games after the break when he looked entirely like old Joba. That period seems to contradict the earlier POV, but what seems most relavent is recent behavior.

It’s hard to argue with Joe G’s. success to this point, but the team trend right now is quite alarming.  Aside from CC, the staff is now a big ?. 

Did Jeter jam one of his fingers in Toronto? He seems to be struggling trying to hit for extra bases all month.

[77] this would be true if he wasn’t showing elite stuff and results last year as well. 

I think that WJ is right when he asserts that Joba is still messed up from his injury in Texas. However, I think the mental repercussions have been greater that the physical ones, which may also exist.

I can see that game like it was yesterday, WJ.  So, yeah, at his physical peak he was probably a lot better than he was scouted.  But if his shoulder is healthy, he’ll need to figure out a way to be a third person.  And not to listen to the George King Sherman Lupica Chasses of the world who’ll whine that he’s not Bob Gibson

[75] I did say it is mental, and being a whiner is mental.

Those three post AS game starts, when he went home for a few days, seems to prove the point.

So we agree to disagree. I believe that Joba’s problems are mostly mental, which can easily cause pyhsical limitations. And unless and until the Yankees say it is owing to an injury, I’ll trust my own senses.

To this point, our offense looks like it’s waving the white flag today. I have to listen to the M’s radio, so every time we hit a ball they make an outstanding robbery.

[80] Eh, I like Andy taking the ball as a 3 against Detroit.  A little concerned about AJ, though I’d have to imagine that E Jackson is causing Tiger fans the same fear.

We could be heading to Anaheim for Game 1. At least Joba would get to pitch at home!

Damon needs to a hit a homer here to make this game worth watching for another inning.

[78] He also threw really hard as a STARTER in 2008. Watch the video tape of the 7 shut out innings against the Red Sox. He tops out at 98.

It’s amazing how many fans and people in the MSM are amnesic about this fact.

“IOW, be proactive, i.e., mitigate the damage.”

One might as logically say, be proactive, panic and make things worse.  Maybe he’s tired and needs rest but no rebuilding.  Maybe he’s not completely healed and needs rest etc.  Maybe he’s made a mechanical compensation for something that won’t be there come spring.  Or maybe he needs a few months in AAA.  We have no reason to think that the Yankees won’t intelligently assess the situation (using in large part data unavailable to us) and act accordingly.  But for this year they have to worry about different things - not burning his confidence, not exacerbating some lingering remnant of injury, not losing too many games before clinching home field, not making a foolish or uninformed post-season roster.

The problem is for 2010. How many innings will Joba be capable of?

How many innings will Phil Hughes be capable of? More of these “games” in 2010, certainly with Hughes, if Cashman wants him to start that is.

Good thing the team signed Teix. I believe I was the big “pusher” last year for signing Teix, at lesat on RLYW.

Just sayin’, to change the subject. Not looming or anything like that.

Joba is also kind of a whiner, IMHO.

I agree. I mean, when Joba and I hang out, all he does is whine. When he was a reliever, he was a lot tougher, but now, he’s always whining to me. I guess the same thing is happening when you’re hanging out with Joba?

[89] As I said the last time that we discussed this, we have imperfect knowledge, and I have consistently said that I suspect that there is a physical issue (even if it merely relates to arm strength), but I think it’s becoming apparent that the status quo isn’t working, and as a result, the Yankees’ current plan of action needs to be reassessed. It’s not as if the Yankees have a compelling body of work that indicates that they are great at developing starters. That’s why the Blue Jays’ experience with Halladay may prove to be instructive.

I agree with your point about the postseason roster.

btw, I don’t think a reassessment indicates panic in any way.

The status quo might not work because Joba needs to be shut down, but ok.

If Melky walks, does TSBG get to bat?

“btw, I don’t think a reassessment indicates panic in any way.”

Right - the point was that simply being proactive doesn’t indicate mitigating the damage in any way.

At least Gardner is getting his walks.  I guess his speed is wasted down six though.  Also, muted yay Mitre.

Go Giants. Make this day worth having lived.

And thanks for nothin’, Joba.

Regarding Joba, if there is a mental aspect, I have worried for some time about his willingness to accept coaching. It may not be a lack of confidence thing so much as a surplus of confidence and he doesn’t listen to his coaches or his borderline HOF catcher. If there’s anything to this besides my imagination, it may well be the best thing for him to be left off the postseason roster or otherwise taken down a peg, and given a clear message that he needs to get with the program.

OTOH if this is just him not being able to “pitch”, and his velocity is gone due to injury, they need to put him through whatever is necessary to turn him from an “ex-thrower” to a “pitcher”, and if he can’t/won’t do that, I guess he’s done.

[95] If it’s not a physical issue, then he doesn’t need to be shut down.

[96] Huh? You said at [69]: The point of the proverb is that you can’t fix Joba in the offseason

The point is to explore every possible solution. You have alternately suggested that there isn’t enough time to do it now, and that he can’t be fixed in the offseason.

I used the word proactive and the phrase mitigation of damages to indicate I think your passive approach makes little sense.

Mitre making his case.

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