I still don’t get how Pedroia is over a full win better than Cano by WAR. Defense be damned, its not THAT good. Especially considering Cano has a higher VORP.

I guess it truly is his scrappiness and grit beard, and those scouts and GMs would have us believe…

What’s the home-field advantage you build in, SG. ~10%?

Because I would have thought the Yankees with a better lineup, better defense, and Burnett vs. Tazawa would be at least a 3:2 favorite in this game.

[2] SG is using Tazawa’s MLEs which are very optimistic. I’d guess its probably closer to high 50s% if Tazawa’s MLB performance were weighted more. does that sound about right SG?

[1] I’m confused on how Pedroia’s defense is rated so much higher than Cano’s. The have almost identical range factors (Cano has a slight edge) and having played ~1000 innings of defense Cano has 7 errors and Pedroia 6. Is Cano really not converting that many outs?

Go Yankees.  After scoring 20 runs yesterday, don’t regress to the mean!

[4] 1000 innings of defense is a crappy number: according to fangraphs, Cano and Pedroia have had 251 expected outs.

[4] I’m with you. And I suppose this is where the issues with defensive stats pop up, right? I mean, I just have a hard time buying into the idea that Pedroia’s stolen bases and defense make up for his offensive deficiencies to the point of making him that much more valuable than Cano.

The defensive difference seems to be a range thing.  Fangraphs has Pedroia with a RngR of 8.3, while Cano is -4.4.

[8] I understand, but if their range factors are basically identical how does that make sense?

Noi giochiamo oggi, vittoria di oggi.

Dassit!

[9] I think this is more a question for SG.  My guess is what you said in [4].  Maybe Cano has just missed more fieldable chances.

I still don’t get how Pedroia is over a full win better than Cano by WAR. Defense be damned, its not THAT good. Especially considering Cano has a higher VORP.

Pedroia:
+ 7 RSAA (runs saved above average) by ZR, +9 RSAA by UZR

Cano:
-1 RSAA by ZR, -3 by UZR

That’s what the numbers say.  Make of it what you will.

What’s the home-field advantage you build in, SG. ~10%?

It’s around .040, so what I do is add .02 to the home team’s winning percentage and subtract .02 from the road team’s winning percentage.

So neutral estimated winning percentage:
Yankees: 0.670
Red Sox: 0.629
Yankee win probability:  54.5%

Adjusted for Fenway:
Yankees: 0.650
Red Sox: 0.649

Yankee win probability: 50.1%

The have almost identical range factors (Cano has a slight edge) and having played ~1000 innings of defense Cano has 7 errors and Pedroia 6. Is Cano really not converting that many outs?

Range factor is dependent on ball in play distribution and the type of pitching staff you have, particularly in a single season.  A player who plays behind a ground ball staff and/or a low K staff will get more opportunities and will appear better in range factor than the exact same player behind a fly ball staff with a higher K staff.

Again, this is what the numbers say:

ZR
Pedroia: 359 fieldable chances, 300 plays made, ZR of .836.  An average 2B (ZR of .812) would have made 291 plays across the same number of chances, so Pedroia is +9 plays made, which translates to +7 runs.

Cano: 372 fieldable chances, 301 plays made, ZR of .809. An average 2B (ZR of .812) would have made 302 plays across the same number of chances, so Cano is -1 play made, which translates to -1 run.

UZR
Pedroia shows as having 251 expected outs, but has made one more DP than expected, has made 10 more plays than expected due to range, and has been a touch below average as far as plays made due to errors.  That adds up to a UZR of around 9 runs above average.

Cano shows as also having 251 expected outs, but has made one fewer DP than expected, has made 6 fewer plays than expected due to range, and has been four plays better than average in errors.  That adds up to a UZR of around 3 runs below average.

There are plenty of reasons that the numbers may not mean that Pedroia is a better defender than Cano.  In ZR, it could be that Cano has faced more difficult chances and it could be related to positioning.  In UZR, the types of chances are accounted for, but positioning is not, so that could be another reason that Cano appears a win worse than Pedroia defensively.

I just present the numbers, but I always encourage everyone to interpret them how they see fit.

[2] SG is using Tazawa’s MLEs which are very optimistic. I’d guess its probably closer to high 50s% if Tazawa’s MLB performance were weighted more. does that sound about right SG?

Yeah, if we just use Tazawa’s YTD MLB performance (9 runs in 11.2 IP) as his projection, Yankee win probability goes to 66.4%.

Thanks SG.

I can’t wait to see our offense completely murder Tazawa and send a resounding statement.

At least, that’s the hope.

I was flying to California last night (which means I don’t get to watch today’s game - thanks, FOX!) and JetBlue has it so you can listen to the games on satellite radio. Naturally, though, it is the home announcers.

Wow, the Boston radio announcers were, in some ways, WORSE than Walding!

It was kind of shocking, really.

Like during the top of the fifth, “Come on, rain!” That’s Hawk Harrelson-esque!

[15] so far Tazawa has shown himself to currently be at about the same caliber as Penny. I am optimistic about this game. I know the Red Sox are trying to win now, but does Tazawa really give them a better chance to win than Penny? I can’t help but think that they are really hurting this kid by rushing him so much.

I can’t help but think that they are really hurting this kid by rushing him so much.

From Tim McCarver in the pre-game: “He was an amateur pitching in the Industrial league in Japan”

He makes Kei Igawa look like Mike Musina…

Plus, Clay, they’re out of options…

Whoa… it’s gametime…

Nice wall ball double by Swisher…

Booooooooooooooooooooooo.

Time for Mr. Three-Run Homer to go yard…

So much for Hideki Gehrig…

well, we stranded two but boy were people teeing off on him…

Thanks SG! I knew it was due to the difference in defensive ratings, its mostly that I just don’t buy it in the end I guess. Its sort of the reverse of what’s happening to Ellsbury, who is getting killed for his defensive rating, and while not a “great” hitter, is really hurt in the ratings because of it..

Listening to the radio and using gameday for the first time in a long time..yeesh..

Well, there’s Scrappy Doo getting a hit to show us all up…

Anybody find any decent video of the Jeter play (cutting down Pedera at 3rd) yesterday?

The mlb.com highlight is shockingly brief, with NO replay (which is bizarre, they ALWAYS include a replay of such things).

I don’t approve of this first and third situation.

Bear down, AJ!

Youk pops up.

One more AJ!

WOW HINSKE. WOW.

Hmmm, once again Ortiz shows inexplicable bat quickness…

Or the crappy AJ has shown up…either or…

but does Tazawa really give them a better chance to win than Penny?

Well, it’s likely they also want to remove Tazawa from the rotation, but Schmoltz turned out to be a high risk, low reward signing, Daisuke’s arm has fallen off, and they traded a young SP for Victor, so as RI Yankee mentioned they are completely out of options.

Penny got hammered first, so he gets the boot. Also, last time I read Wakefield was healthy enough to pitch but they were quite concerned that he won’t be able to field his position and cover first when necessary.

I don’t understand AJ Burnett… he used to *own* Boston… now, he gets knocked around like a pineda

Well, looks like its about time to head out and do something outside…

If AJ can ever get out of this inning, I am really not too concerned about getting back the 3 runs against Japanese Industrial League legend Tazawa.

Agreed, Ted, it’s keeping the Sox at under 5-6 runs total is more my concern.

That kinda sucked.

The bats need to go to work.

That sucked.

Also, I think this should end the Hinske at LF experiment right away. It should be Hairston to play LF until Gardner gets back.

that sucked too.

Mr. Cano, please develop some brain cells.

Well that isn’t going to help…

Scrappy Doo, of course, would never do that…

Cano lacking grutsiness again.  Perdoia would have hustled enough to be safe.

injury delay?!

Well, we have one of the necessary elements of a typical Yankee win - a baserunning mistake.

Let’s see the others now!

Good Lord is Sterling ever blustery…

Mr. Hinske, you owe us one. Please give that back. And preferably, don’t make an out while doing so.

will baserunning kill us in a key playoff game?

[44] Cano’s helmet may have hit Pedroia’s in the face when Cano was trying to slide around him.

[45] vortex fueled homeruns?

Well, that sucked too.

Giving up outs sucks too.

Yankees need some luck.

[48] Probably.

It’s gonna be one of those games…

This better not be one of those games where the Yanks spend all day on the verge of breaking through but never do…

[53] Dang, beat me to it…

[45] Starting pitcher in battle mode?

Tazawa definitely seems to be “I prefer to be lucky than good” type. So far, he is getting his preference.

Ugh

[54] Great minds think alike… and, within seven seconds of each other

[45] Hughes only being used to get the last out in the 8th?

[60] Me wishing there was a secret plan to start Hughes?

[45] A four pitch walk.

well, alex gonzalez just homered off of burnett. i officially declare this game over.

AGon?  Really?

Bad AJ.

fuck you AJ.

[45] A cheapie HR by a banjo hitter SS?  Oh wait, that’s supposed to be our guy.

[62], you called it.

at least one of those pitches should have been a strike.

Can we get through *one* game w/out a four-pitch walk??!!

An eight pitch walk??!!!!!!!!!?????????

AJ’s going for 2!

Ball 8, ball 12, ball 16.

strike out Youkilis and some of this will be forgiven.

A four-pitch walk WAS on the list.

Step 1 - insist all pitchers issue a minimum of one 4 pitch walk per appearance

Step 2 - ???

Step 3 - Profit

for the love of god…

game over. I hate Fenway.

Okay, I think it’s likely fair enough to just call this one over.

Ugh. AJ decided to have a clunker today. But no cash for me!

This is fugly. Burnett needs to just give them some inning, so that the good relievers may not be pressed into duty.

Bring in Swisher.

AJ is pitching like he smoked a joint before the game.

[81] fuck it. Bring in Damon.

Alright, I am out to get a jump start on drinking, knowing full well that leaving means the Yankees are going to put together the most amazing comeback in the history of August comebacks.

[82] Or… he’s pitching like he SHOULD’VE smoked a joint… or, dropped acid… hey, it helped ‘Doc’ Ellis pitch a no-hitter back when LSD was the PED of choice…

I can haz chip away?

At OTB the game was on in the background without sound but it looked to me like Hinske just let the ball drop between his hand and his glove.  Did he lose it in the sun?  As for Cano I can’t remember a Yankee team that was thrown out this often trying to stretch.  I guess Burnett has sucked but I’m mad as hell at Hinske and Cano.

Where’s the hurricane ?

Where was that the last 2 innings? Hopefully Burnett can give them some innings at least.

Hurricane Bill

Nice swing, guess you’re in for your defense.

fuck.

Oh wow, they really had to get runs this inning.  Oh well.

Melky in a hurry to go home.  This team is playing like they’ve already clinched.

Can we get through *one* game w/out a four-pitch walk??!!

It must be some fancy new strategy designed by Dave Eiland.  Fake the other team into thinking you can’t pitch.
But the second and most important part of that strategy is sometimes forgotten.

What happened with Hinske in the first?  Out of the corner of my eye it looked like an easy catch but I see it was scored a hit.  What did I miss?

There was a little girl, er baseball team
Who had a little curl,
Right in the middle of her forehead.
When she was good,
She was very, very good,
But when she was bad, she was horrid

I worry about Burnett in October.

I do not believe that this team is not trying.

I do not believe that there is any shame in getting blown out in one game when your starting pitcher goes out and has nothing. 

I believe that bellyaching on this board is therapeutic for some people.

I have to remind myself of that last thing sometimes.

[98] I feel like Burnett will be feast or famine in the playoffs.