I’ve been waiting for that true C.C. groove all season; hopefully he’s able to string a few dominant starts together.

UPDATE, 8:45 p.m.: It hurts just to write this. But Seattle 3B Adrian Beltre could be done for the season after taking a bad-hop grounder in the groin last night. It caused tearing in one of his testicles along with internal bleeding and he could require surgery. Beltre does not use a cup.

I apologize if this point has already been addressed.  ISTM that Total WAR doesn’t give much useful info.  It doesn’t tell how likely the Yanks are to win the game.

The total of the starters WAR/game might be more helpful. I would guess that most of the starters with high WAR have played around 100 - 110 games.  So, the total of WAR/game might be around .15.  I guess that means more-or-less that this lineup playing against a replacement level team would win around 65% of the games, assuming that the pitching was equal.

Of course, Seattle will also field a team that’s playing well above replacement level.  That fact would have to be taken into account, as well as difference in starting pitchers and bull pens. Maybe the approach could lead to a reasonable way to set odds on the game or even expected run differential.  However, I wouldn’t know how to get that far.

Hey David, kind of of a respectful, nerdy, type of post if you don’t mind me saying so. Unleash your weapon lad. Tell us what you really think! Believe it or not, some of us do care. Me included.

of of. New English.

[2] - I think I’m going to wear a cup at all times now. Just to be safe.

I’m very surprised that the Yankees are only favored at 58% for this game. I would have guessed something in the low to mid 60s.

Hate to say it, but…CC + Seattle’s lineup + Ian Snell = must win.

someone convince me this game isn’t important because of the really late starting time.

Man, I hope I didn’t scare David away. I was welcoming him to the basement de la mama.

10. I was told there would be snacks.

[6] I’m wearing one right now.

There should be an effort to stop these ridiculous start times. Games should never start later than 6 PST if one team is from the CST, much less than EST.

Beltre is now in my prayers.

someone convince me this game isn’t important because of the really late starting time.

A win reduces the magic number to clinch first place which, if accomplished early enough, would afford Girardi the opportunity to rest CC and others so that the team is set up to win a playoff round for the first time since 2004.

[13] while I’m on the West coast I really dislike that most of the Yankee games start at 4. it’s OK right now that I’m partially employed, but when I actually have a job it sucks. I miss the first 1-3 innings.

Although, I expect my liking of West coast start times to change if/when I move back East

[15] Sorry, but seriously… what about everyone else?

I don’t mind late games all that much.  I’m a bit of a night owl though.

My POOMA analysis has the Yankee win probability at 98.1%.

Most people on the west coast don’t get their chakras in order until 6:45.

Waldman recently uttered the phrase “torn testicle”....

That inning really wasn’t all that fun.

...which has disordered at least one of my, uh, chakras.

[20] This is why athletes are paid the big bucks.

Well, that and millions of fans and good unions.

“Seattle’s problem is playing defense”—cause they’re last in errors—nice to have a sabre-friendly booth!

9 strikes 2 balls. That’s kinda good.

Talking about CC, not Beltre.

“2 Balls, No Cup:  The Adrian Beltre Story”

If Melky homers here, who crosses the plate first ? Melky or Matsui ?

14, 18, 20:

I’m going to turn on Suzling, but if I hear the words Torn Testicle it’s a dealbreaker. Also, if this is the Lock of The Day, then I can definitely turn it off after the sixth.

p.s. Did anyone see Neyer write I Love You Too, Man in his column today. I’m just asking cause I love you guys.

I misread [9] @ [14]. My bad.

Yay BABIP.

Hairston is the new Hinske?

Yay WP.

That works.

Remember our last utility IFer? Yeah, neither do I.

No error on the “double” ? Yeah, a hit, but if he doesn’t dive for that it’s nothing more than a single.

No error on the “double” ? Yeah, a hit, but if he doesn’t dive for that it’s nothing more than a single.

A bit harsh, though.  You would be penalizing a player for diving to make a very tough play.  It’s not like the ball bounced off his glove oddly because he made a bad dive.
Official scorers might have to check under their cars if they made decisions like that.

bounced off his glove oddly

That’s exactly what it looked like to me, is why I’m asking. It looked like it caromed off at a right angle into left, making it harder to chase down.

To be fair to the start time, it gives me an excuse to rewatch Boise State vs. TCU

CC had to throw a few more pitches that inning.  Hopefully his 1st inning mojo returns.

[38] As if anyone needs one.

That’s exactly what it looked like to me, is why I’m asking. It looked like it caromed off at a right angle into left, making it harder to chase down.

Right.  But that’s a result of an attempt to make a difficult play - not because of some physical misplay.  Very tough to rule an error for that.

Jeter!

Jetes!

I thought Jeter only hit HRs in the vortex.

Did we go to NYS for an AB?

Matsui!

Sterling just said that Jeter went 420, but I can’t see how it would help you hit a baseball.

Did we go back for another AB?

Cash was never seriously interested in Snell, right?

[41] OK. I just thought they might call it a misjudged risk or something. Thanks.

Remember our last utility IFer? Yeah, neither do I.

Repression of trauma is a normal, healthy reaction.

420?

So the team is beginning to look sufficiently good that I’m starting to feel bad for the weaker opponents - a feeling I don’t recall having had for a long time.

Hah. M’s broadcast team picked a lousy time to carp about the NYS vortex. Apparently it is strong enough to bend the transcontinental jetstream.

[52] It’s the bullpen. It’s like hanging out with Mo makes you awesome at relief pitching.

[32]

Jonathan, I’m touched.

[41] OK. I just thought they might call it a misjudged risk or something. Thanks.

I think there definitely could be situations like that where an error would be warranted (although again, the OS is not likely to rule it such).  Perhaps a dive on a play where the ball could not possibly be caught, resulting in a deflected ball.  It would have to be pretty obvious, however.

I apologize if this point has already been addressed.  ISTM that Total WAR doesn’t give much useful info.  It doesn’t tell how likely the Yanks are to win the game.

Of course, Seattle will also field a team that’s playing well above replacement level.  That fact would have to be taken into account, as well as difference in starting pitchers and bull pens. Maybe the approach could lead to a reasonable way to set odds on the game or even expected run differential.  However, I wouldn’t know how to get that far.

YTD WAR is not what I use to set the odds.  It’s strictly listed for informational purposes.  To do the odds, I use revised projections for both teams and calculate the estimated runs scored for both teams per 27 outs using the posted lineups.  I then calculate the runs expected to be allowed by the pitchers by filling in however many innings the scheduled starter generally pitches per game and then putting in the top relievers to fill out the rest of the nine innings.

It pleases me that the Tigers finally decided to put up a fight.

Or that the Sox choked. However you want to view it. But I’m pleased.

I like it when CC makes getting a hit off of him a noteworthy occurrence.

That Teixeira groundout really was a productive AB.  It meant Damon could walk home from third on the Matsui HR instead of from second.

Jonathan, I’m touched.

I have a soft spot for Tasmanian wildlife.

I like this version of CC very much.

BTW, as a follow up to post 57, here’s an example of the process I use to set the win probabilities.

How often is Ichiro part of a double play?

Anyone else getting the M’s feed ?

Fun fact: this day in ‘62, Bert Campineris pitched ambidextrously in the minors.

Apparently he also played all 9 positions in a game for Oakland in ‘65.

Kahrayzee.

Definitely been a very Jeterian year for Jeter

Jeter’s bounce back has been just about my favorite part of the season thus far. I’d love to see him get really hot and win his first MVP…

[63] I was reminded the other day that on one game in 1988, Cecil Fielder and Kelly Gruber spent the entire game switching between 3b and 2b depending on the batter.

Alex may finally be winning the media over, via Kepner.

Teix makes squaring up a ball look so easy.

Why can’t all the games be like this?

Teixeira hit ball good.

Definitely been a very Jeterian year for Jeter

Is it a paradox if Jeter doesn’t play Jeterianly?

[69] Because the east coasters insist on starting the games at 4pm.

In what way is a player with a .302 OBP having a good season?

[67] There’s a great deal of hackery in that article.  Very disappointing work.  That aside, good for A-Rod.

That aside, good for A-Rod.

That’s my primary focus…for obvious reasons.

I much prefer these 7 pitch innings to CC’s strikeouts.  They mean he can pitch 9 innings every 2-3 days.

In what way is a player with a .302 OBP having a good season?

Depends on who he’s dating.

[72] Is he a pitcher?

I guess a guy who hit 3 hr/10 AB and made outs else would soon become a guy who got an IBB every PA, ruining his OBP,

,->.

Cash was never seriously interested in Snell, right?

Pete Abe answers my question:

“Now we know why the Yankees wanted nothing to do with trading for him.”

[72] Is he a pitcher?

No, it was Jose Lopez.  Flaherty was saying how good of a year he’s having.

YCPB

I didn’t know the other team was allowed to hit cheap home runs.

Apparently the M’s strategy tonight is keep hitting it to Damon and wait for him to F it up.

Lopez is on pace for 95 RBIs. Weird. And the Yankee booth is convinced he’s a good defender, so that’s where Flash probably got it all from. Of course it seems that Flash is contractually obligated to say only positive things about every ballplayer in the league.

Damon tried to throw that ball into the stands after out 3. Predictably, he bounced it, had to chase it down and throw from nearer.

I wonder if that will be Josh Wilson’s career highlight.

How dumb do you have to be to create smoke during a game, especially in an enclosed space?

Of course it seems that Flash is contractually obligated to say only positive things about every ballplayer in the league.

Too true. More Leiter, more Cone, even more O’Neill. Less Flaherty.

How dumb do you have to be to create smoke during a game, especially in an enclosed space?

Rich, help out the Gameday crowd, please!

With the Yankees doing quite well late in the season, the media is really reaching to find a way to be a negative nancy.

Rich, help out the Gameday crowd, please!

They set off fireworks when a Mariner hits a HR, and the residual smoke lingers, wafting over the OF.

M’s light off fireworks for home team HR’s. There’s a blue smokey haze, which I think actually started a few innings ago with smoke from the kitchens.

Safeco is semi-enclosed. There’s a retractable roof. I dunno if it’s open or closed tonite. They also have a vortex vent between the upper deck and the roof system so it’s never really closed up like the Kingdome was.

Damon’s having quite the salary drive.

So that’s why Damon is on the team!

Snell’s in until he gives up ten runs?

[91]

Finally, Alex wins a competition with Jeter.
Hands down.  (I’m sure there’s a pun in there, but it’s unintended).

Ten, eight, close enough.

Alex wins.  But I wouldn’t kick Minka out of bed.

Zombie RBIs are fun.

[99]

That would be rude, certainly.