Are you not going to state the importance of this game?

Andy Pettitte is not fooling anyone, not even baseball spreadsheets. His FIP and ERA are identical.

I’m a big fan of the addition of WAR and FIP to the season stats.

Wow, the 3-9 hitters for the Jays have a cumulative -1.6 WAR.  That’s…impressively bad.

Sorry, that should be 4-9 hitters.  Typo.

Are you not going to state the importance of this game?

I’m saving that for Thursday.

It’s important that we get started on the right foot.

[7]

Which shouldn’t not lower itself to wearing a bloody sock.

should not

Wells and Rios are a net -1.1 WAR.  The Jays are paying them together $16M this year.

I’m a big fan of the addition of WAR and FIP to the season stats.

Cool.  I’m thinking of doing a probability thing too, like I did for the guarantee post.

“I’m thinking of doing a probability thing too”

I just want statistical uncertainties listed everywhere.

So… what does Toronto want to do with Halladay?

The WAR and FIP are great additions.  Probabilities would also be terrific.

Damn those balls were close (according to gameday)

No-hitter broken up!  Way to go Damon!

this game tickles my genitals….seriously! need two wins going into this weekend fo sho….

Yankees probability of winning today: 43.5%

I just want statistical uncertainties listed everywhere.

All statistical uncertainties are infinite because we can’t predict baseball.

Ha!

Do you know where your all your probability numbers should be thrown?

Won’t be a shut out! Way to go A-Rod!

I like doubles.

thank god that didn’t go out or this rally would’ve been over!

Toronto, we say to thee: “Ha!”

“Yankees probability of winning today: 43.5%”

What’s it now?

What were we supposed to be giving up for this rank incompetent Halladay, again?

Matsui must have done something extremely complicated, giving the time it’s taking Gameday to process it.

error on millar!  i still hate him.

23 pitches and 2 runs is a very good first inning against Halladay.  Typically the Yanks are at about 7 pitches and 0 runs.

“Typically the Yanks are at about 7 pitches and 0 runs.”

That should be -0 runs at least.

Good call.

What’s it now?

We add one inning and two runs to Toronto and then subtract one inning of Halladay’s projected 7.4 IP and 2.87 runs allowed, which changes Toronto from a .675 (.695 home) team to a .488 (.508 home) team.  That makes the Yankees now a 60.2% favorite.

Does the 2.87 runs allowed include the fact that his era went up after the first 1/2 inning?

Does the 2.87 runs allowed include the fact that his era went up after the first 1/2 inning?

If we wanted to be as close as possible, it probably should, but it doesn’t.

One should factor in his ERA(pitch_n)...  And really 22 pitches for Halladay is > 1 IP wrt expectations.

Battlecat… not battling? Must be the heart of the Toronto Blue Jays order!

Pettite has rediscovered that cutter these past three games.  What a difference.  Those strike three cutters just ate up Wells and Rios.  Andy was having trouble with right handed batters this season.  Tried to stay away, away, away.  Nice to see him be able to bust righties inside again.

Isn’t fangraph going to do it for us? I mean, the winning odds?

Pettitte really has been good since the break.

Fangraphs is for average team versus average team with all average players.

One should factor in his ERA(pitch_n)… And really 22 pitches for Halladay is > 1 IP wrt expectations.

Hmm, good point, although it appears he’s going to level off his pitch count awfully quick here.

Yeah, it is awfully hard to drive up Halladay’s pitch count. Guy throws strikes, and groundballs. Extremely difficult combination to succeed against. Some groundball pitchers have difficulty throwing strikes when hitters lay off the sinker. Not Halladay. He locates the sinker at the bottom of the zone.

Simply awesome.

I do approve of the Tiex double though.

I think I like this Rodriguez character. He may have a good future in baseball.

Aww, infield single, I saw no outs and was hoping for a run.

i don’t think halladay is a good matchup for matsui…groundballzilla, here we come.

oooh….i was almost sooo wrong.  damnit

John Sterling…HR call whore.

Sterling does it again, with a phony HR call.

Class broadcasting all the
way.

Besides all that, you can’t predict baseball.

Looks like Hideki almost hit it out (Gameday).  True?  Looks like there have been a number of those already.

gamecast almost had it out as well….as apparently, did sterling.

Why is Marco Scutaro with Blue Jays again?

whatever andy does, he must avoid facing Babe Scutaro with men on base.

Damn, walking Bautista? Hope this is not the beginning of battling.

A-rod is a-rod

Alright!

Hideki gave it a ride.  But Wells caught it on the track.  Wells actually almost wound up over running the ball and had to make a basket catch as he was running towards the wall.  Well hit ball but it was not going to be a home run. Looked like a gapper at best.  Sterling is…well Sterling.

DPs are the opposite of battling.

Leadoff singles - battling.  Swinging strikeouts - not battling. So conflicted.

I hate Kevin Millar.

Long ABs ending in walks - battling, and not winning…

Battle: On.

goddamnit andy.

Yup, the battle is on. At full scale.

How about a DP Pettitte?

Hinske’s arm seems Damon-esque.

If this were to be the final score, victory would have been given to the Yankees by Millar with that error.
That wouldn’t be bad.

Is Pettitte getting squeezed as bad as GD suggests?

Over/under on Yankee baserunners for the rest of this game is one.

That was a rather Farns-worthy inning. Good thing is Yankees still have the lead.

Battle: Off.

That was a rather Farns-worthy inning.

Did I miss the other two runs ?

I’ll take the over, SG.

And just like that, Halladay at 65 pitches after 5. The guy is a clockwork.

Andy, please find a way to unbattle. Battling seems to result in ungoodness.

I’m not particularly enjoying battle mode.

Giambi throws that into LF, albeit on about 20 bounces.

YAY DP!

Mark it Zero.

Nice start by Andy.
No evidence of run-suppressing environment, given Halladay’s expected results.

I’ll take the over, SG.

You still have time to change your bet.

ok, the only question at this point is whether we can hold the bluejays scoreless over the next four innings, because it is painfully obvious that halladay is going to complete this game and not allow another run.

that was abusive.

Does Halladay usually throw this hard? I remember him sitting 91-93. He’s flashing some serious heat on the sinker today.

what’s the velocity this time out Clay?

So, hopefully Andy finds a way to battle to 6+ innings in 100 pitches without giving up another run. I think the strategy should then shift to Hughes to Mo. There is practically zero probability that Yankees score another run.

Of course, Suzyn’s inability to predict baseball should be kept in mind.

this inning 93-95.

I am feeling a random Hinske HR for some reason.

Will such examples of Jeter’s badassery show up in his ZR/UZR/etc.?

Isn’t Millar a little bit too much teh suck to be batting fourth ?

Well, there is that one hit, SG.

UZR has Jeter at +9, second only to Elvis Andrus, per nomaas.

And promptly taken care of next pitch. Thanks, Robby.

Two pitches, one of the giving up a hit… and two outs.
Amazing.
But we are at the over/under, right, SG?

So, how many pitches does it take for Halladay to finish this thing? Over/under 100.

Does that even count as a baserunner?

Be quick with the hoook, Girardi.  I think he will, because he’ll want to preserve the “win” for Pettitte.

Outstanding outing by Pettitte, despite the fourth inning battle. I think Girardi needs to bring in Hughes, like, now.

Yep, appears he heard me.

Oops, apparently not. I need to stop predicting “coaching visit to mound"s.

Please take Andy out.