Hasn’t someone come up with a good pythag correction formula for bullpen or just closer quality?

Hasn’t someone come up with a good pythag correction formula for bullpen or just closer quality?

I think I’ve read a study somewhere that showed that bullpen strength isn’t always a valid reason for a team to exceed its pythag. I’ll have to see if I can dig it up.

Closer quality likely doesn’t have a huge impact either, because the average save situation is generally actually fairly low leverage.  Teams on average win the game 93% of the time with a 1-3 run lead in the ninth.  Then again, a lot of pythag deviation is based on performance in 1 run games, and a closer can surely have impact there.

Another possible reason for a significant deviation from pythag would be a top-heavy roster. If a team has a really bad back of bullpen/bench, they’re likely more susceptible to lose blowouts by a larger margin once they’ve thrown in the towel and put in their scrubs, which could mean their run differential will look worse.

Another possible reason for a significant deviation from pythag would be a top-heavy roster. If a team has a really bad back of bullpen/bench, they’re likely more susceptible to lose blowouts by a larger margin once they’ve thrown in the towel and put in their scrubs, which could mean their run differential will look worse.

In the early Torre years it seemed that the Yankees always beat their pythag, and I pooma-ed that this was the reason.  I also pooma-ed that because the team was often in a comfortable place in the standings, they could afford to take out, say, Derek Jeter for Homer Bush, quite early in a blowout, because they never really needed that particular game.  This would lead to more scrubbini playing time, and more lopsided scores.

(P.S. I loved Homer Bush and I hated seeing him go in the Clemens trade, which I hated even though I agreed at the time it was, from an analytical standpoint, the right move.)

Sweet merciful mcgillicutty, this Oakland lineup is piss poor.  The Yankees better pull out a win tonight.

I was wondering recently if the Clemens trade was actually good - maybe out loud here, even.  Lloyd didn’t go on to set the world on fire iirc, nor Bush, but Wells wasn’t bad, and maybe the money could have been used well elsewhere.

I guess the Yankees could rest starters when leading, but their definition of an acceptable lead is not typical either.

How well does delta_pythag behave as a function of team strength?  Does the curve fit the whole distribution out to 100 wins well?

Upton doesn’t appear to be having a great year with the stick.  I’m surprised he’s still batting lead off - what with the .322 OBP and all.

Has Bartlett fallen off a cliff?  I know he missed some time, but he’s got a .912 OPS and he’s batting 9th.

You know what, forget I complained about it.  I like it.

Rilke, I think the way it played out the Clemens trade was not much better than a wash (when dollars are factored in).  But at the moment of the trade, given Wells’ and Clemens’ careers, it was inarguably smart, baseball-wise.  That said, it was maybe the only Yankees trade I’ve ever seen that I simultaneously agreed with and wished weren’t happening.

“But at the moment of the trade, given Wells’ and Clemens’ careers, it was inarguably smart, baseball-wise.”

Lloyd had a couple of more than excellent years for us, and Bush was great for a while, wasn’t he?  Hmm, I guess we did get a lot of production out of Soriano around then, maybe that was foreseeable.  Maybe one could have expected Wells to age well as a hyperathletic lefty with a rubber arm, though.

This is an important game and all, but if you weren’t listening to WFAN just now, you aren’t a baseball fan.  Or a fan of trainwrecks.

Wild!!

Bush and Lloyd were spare parts.  Wells was coming off a career year.  Clemens was coming off of his 4th and 5th Cy Youngs.  Wells, bless him, was a fat Farns.  Clemens was known around baseball for his fantastic “conditioning”.  Course, we now know he was just a vegan. 

Have you ever noticed that when people say something is “inarguable’ they usually feel like arguing?

Hmm, just looked up Clemens’s #s again, never mind, we had to get him.

Kronic, please to explain? Was it Adam Rubin?

If the facts are as Adam Rubin has presented them, Minaya slandered him.

AJ should do that more often.

Frickin’ elf.

That really seemed like it had the black.

AJ should do that less often.

Yeah, Omar had a press conference (apparently Jeff Wilpon was there, but I didn’t hear him), and he was being grilled.  He said he regretted WHEN he said it, but not what he said.  Stands by his assertion that Rubin was “lobbying” for a position WITH the mets.

It was very awkward.

I hate when that happens.

The NYT says Rubin said, “I asked, How do you go about getting a job in baseball? That’s the extent of it” and “I don’t know how I can cover the team now.”

That was better than battling.

Someone please explain HTF Zobrist and Barlett became Miguel Cabrera this year?

Nice escape by AJ!

the original conference, and Rubin’s follow up are here on the right:

http://web.sny.tv/index.jsp

Nice result.

Ham has a link up to the first presser and the interview with Rubin.

Matsui scoring from 1B on something other than a HR. I thought I would never see that again.

I wouldn’t be shocked if that running just put Matsui in the hospital.

How did Matsui score from first on a double given his knees?  Or was it only a double because Posada was running?

Cano now hitting with RISP. Yes!

Waiting for the cycle here…

Gapper to RCF.  Could have been a triple for a fast runner.

3 runs and 5 hits in 2 innings, and Shields still has only thrown 29 pitches.  Weird.

Sure would be nice to burn their bullpen tonight.

Davidoff:

UPDATE, 7:10 p.m.: What a bizarre day. Minaya and Jeff Wilpon just entered the press box here at Citi Field to issue an apology to Rubin. Wilpon said that Rubin did nothing wrong in his reporting. Minaya said that he stood by what he said about Rubin, just that he chose to the wrong arena to share that knowledge. My head is spinning.

How does Minaya still have a job?

How does Minaya still have a job?

I think just about everyone is asking that question. Also, he’s an awful GM.

Strikes AJ, Strikes.

the awful gm part is why i wonder how he still has a job.

I don’t get it- The Mutts are still in it as the NL is a joke.  Minaya could have easily acquired guys like Hinske and Laroche and possibly McClouth to keep them close until guys get back.  These guys may have been good enough to play on their team without the injuries.

Overpowered him.

[39] I know, you’d think the Wilpons would jump on this opportunity to get rid of him.

AJ knows defense.

I don’t mind a walk an inning if it’s offset by 2 strike outs an inning.

In my view The Mutts ownership has a delusional obsession with the BK Dodgers- they think they are the same organization when they clearly are not.  Having minorities, regardless of competance, in management positions is a high priority so they can continue to cultivate this ridiculous notion that they are a team of the people (forget their NL-high payroll every year).

“BK Dodgers”

Is Burger King branching out into baseball?  Can McDonald’s afford the Yankees?

Is Upton still playing ridiculously shallow?

Can McDonald’s afford the Yankees?

baseballé?

Decent quickness by Teix.

Teix is good at baseball things.

Hmmmmmmm…. not much chatter here tonight…

Don’t you guys know these games with TB are important?! 

I had no idea how good of an all-around player Teixeira is.  Anyone else notice that Jesus hit 2 more HRs this weekend?  Can that guy catch or is he gonna have to move?  Is RF an option?

i wonder if crawford has ever GIDP with Upton on first. Seems almost impossible given their speed.

AJax has nowhere near Upton/Crawford speed, right?  If so, then him and Gardner may be something to look forward to, especially for the pitchers…

Robbie again with the RISP? So Matsui scores from first and Cano triples with a runner on second? This is real wrath of God type stuff. Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies. Rivers and seas boiling. Forty years of darkness. Earthquakes, volcanoes. The dead rising from the grave. Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together. Mass hysteria.

Has Pete Abe learned to write?

Also, AJax has nowhere near Upton/Crawford speed, right?  If so, then him and Gardner may be something to look forward to, especially for the pitchers…

I presume that the word “nowhere” wasn’t supposed to be there…

i just really like Burnett. I didn’t think I was gonna like him, and watching him pitch is like watching someone juggle chainsaws, but I just feel good when I know he’s on the hill.

Was Francesa always rabid, foaming-at-the-mouth insane, and it went unnoticed on the background of Russo’s yelping?  Or is this a recent plunge into benthic dementia?

Burnett’s kind of been sneaky good this year. I doubt many baseball fans know how good he’s really been.

Has Pete Abe learned to write?

Harold Ramis and Dan Ackroyd can write. Pete Abe has seen Ghostbusters almost as many times as I have.

4 pitch walk to Cano. Wow.

am i right in thinking that Swisher has had like 6 really outstanding weeks with the bat this season, and the rest of the season he’s been dreadful?

I’m thinking that someone missed a sign there.

bleh, more missed signs?

Conkles, well caught.

[61]

He had a good June as well:

OPS by month

April: 1.144
May: .586
June: .885
July: .640

I am currently watching Mega Shark vs. Giant Octopus. Status updates will commence.

So far the special effects look like something from the discovery/history channel.

I’m thinking that we shouldn’t bother following the Oakland game anymore.

If AJ regains his ability to get GBs, we’re golden.

If AJ regains his ability to get GBs, we’re OK!

Jazzed that up for you a little.

Kay cites Bill James with ample incredulity… as if James’ name had a question mark affixed… Bill James? The steroid freaks should be enshrined along with the amphetamine addicts and booze hounds… that’s my take on it. Although, admittedly, steroids definitely have a positive effect on player performance… I’ve written about this topic before, folks.

http://www.sportscolumn.com/2009/02/12/the-stars-are-projectors/

I’m chiming in late here. Kay has moved on to the Met freakshow.

Monster inning here.

How big is that Octopus?

Holy crap, that’s a tough call.

ARod was a little peeved.  Good thing he didn’t do anything stupid.

I enjoyed Singleton’s take on steroid use, because it’s nice to hear from an older player who is not a moron like Gossage (really, Goose, will anyone miss you if you DO skip future Hall of Fame events?).

I disagree with Singleton a bit, but I appreciate his opinion on the issue (he is clearly anti-steroid users).

[73] it destroyed an oil derrick, easily.

the shark just jumped out of the water and ate an airliner, at cruising altitude. and the special effects are mind-blowingly bad. I could do better on this computer.

Great grab by Gross.  Gadzooks.

I may be exaggerating, but not as much as you think.

[77] - Could you use Paint and get close to the SFX?

So this shark is like 12,000 ft. long?

80, not quite, but I have after effects, which is a special effects program, but I’m not very good with it yet.

[81] no, but it was larger than the airliner. according to the movie it is a megalodon.

“the polar ice caps are melting at an increased rate. Maybe… maybe this is our comeuppance.” - a straight quote from one of the movie’s characters.

I blame A-Rod for the polar ice caps melting.  He plays a nice 3rd base, though.

In the span of 3 minutes, they’ve used the same f/x shot 5 times.

Bartlett rocking the .338 average. That Delmon Young trade by the Twins was hideous.

Kotsay was being talked up by the radio voices as CF option. Why? Feinsand basically saying there probably is a good reason why Boston DFA’d 1b Kotsay

Wait a second Clay, are you watching the movie where that guy drives his motorboat into the mouth a giant shark? That’s a youtube classic, along with “Undeafeatable”.

That AB just put Bartlett at a sub-.900 OPS.  Definitely coming back to earth, but man, Garza AND Bartlett for DY?

Bartlett’s down in July.  Anyway, I just got home.  Small quibble, but how can Burnett be at 90 pitches through 15 outs if he’s only allowed three baserunners?

[89] no, I’m watching a movie that came out a couple of months ago. It became an internet sensation when the trailer was released.

[91] - Super Battle Mode.  You don’t allow base-runners, but you battle each AB.

Locked in.

I like when Cano gets hot.

C-bombed.

Cano’s had quite the game.

I swear I was about to comment that it’s time for the Yankees to hit some HRs.

And yeah, DaPuj is dead on, Burnett is battling every batter - it’s kinda hilarious.

giant octopus sized home run from Robbie.  And a giant shark sized shot from Swisher.