3.27 ERA

“the most ever by a pitcher without a 20-win season.”

Let’s change that, heh?

How many more starts will Moose get?

So Mo has 61 K’s to just 5 BB.  I wanted to see how that stacked up all-time on the K/BB ratio, but unfortunately, baseball-reference’s minimum for single season rate stats only catches starters.  The most is 11.0, which is pretty phenomenal.  I’m looking to see how Mo’s 12.2 compares to other relievers.  It has to be pretty freaking high.

DaPuj, check Eckersley’s years with the A’s.

Wow, back to back seasons of 18+ K/BB.  3 walks in 58 innings.  Yeah, I knew he was good, I guess I never really looked at his numbers.

Eck had 73 K’s against 4 walks in 1990, and many other good K/BB years.

As for the Yankees, they’re hanging in there.  A playoff run featuring Sidney Ponson and Carl Pavano, anyone?

Who goes down when Hughes is ready?

How many more starts will Moose get?

Probably 10.

Giving four days rest this is Moose’s likely schedule:

8/12 at Minnesota
8/17 vs. Royals
8/22 at Baltimore
8/27 vs. Boston
9/1 vs. Detroit
9/6 at Seattle
9/12 vs. Tampa Bay
9/17 vs. Chicago
9/23 at Toronto
9/28 at Boston

Raul Ibanez is teh awesome.

Hey, the Rays finally lose a game! 

Shouldn’t a loss to Seattle really count as 2 losses?  Just as extra punishment for losing to such a crappy team?

In my dream Moose’s 20th win comes at Fenway 9/28 and clinches a playoff berth.

If Melky is going to ride the pine, would it be crazy to rush A-Jax up right now, just to see, just to see?

Reportedly, Hughes has scrapped his slider in favor of a cutter.

Hey! Didn’t there used to be someone posting here as *cutter*? Wonder what became of him.

7IP, 0ER.  Against the Rangers.  In Texas.  100 degrees on the field. 

Kneel before Moose.

Who goes down when Hughes is ready?

I think the next couple of starts are auditions for Kennedy, Ponson (though he has a head start in this race), and Giese.  I’d certainly like to say that Kennedy will be safe, that he’ll pitch the best.  If I had to rank them (most likely to lose their spot to Hughes), I’d put them in order of Giese, Kennedy, Ponson.

If Melky is going to ride the pine, would it be crazy to rush A-Jax up right now, just to see, just to see?

Yes, it is crazy.

1) He’s not on the 40, so you need to make room (there may be an extra spot on the 40 right now, but that actually is being saved for Pavano).
2) You’re starting his arbitration clock.
3) Since he’s not going to play every day, it probably won’t do anything to help his development.

If the Yankees fall out of it in Sept you may see him on the roster, but not before.

“an extra spot on the 40 right now, but that actually is being saved for Pavano”

Ha.
Hahaha.
BUWAHAHAHAHAHAAAAA!

The first-base coach Bobby Meacham was in Colorado for the wedding of his daughter. - NY Times

I read that he walked her up the aisle, right out the door, and around the block before he finally stopped her.

Why pinch run with melky last night when you have JC on the bench?

I love Moose.

so next 3 @ LAA 3@min then 3 vs KC 3@tor and 3@bal…

I am thinking we need atleast a 9-6 over these 15 to stay in it.

Why pinch run with melky last night when you have JC on the bench?

if you trust Melky more in CF, then i follow Girardi’s thinking.  i think i’d rather have melky in CF.

you could of course use Christian to PR, then put Melky in for him, but then you have burned all of your OFers.  if an OFer gets hurt somehow, you are screwed.

2 out of 3 from LAA would be a great way to start. But with the pitchers we have going we’re probably gonna need WOE to stop being WOE.

8,9- So it’s just about staying healthy now for Moose.

2 out of 3 from LAA would be a great way to start. But with the pitchers we have going we’re probably gonna need WOE to stop being WOE.

This would violate the Law of Yankee Thermodynamics, which states: “As a closed system must conserve heat, as soon as one player on the roster gets hot another player must get equally cold.”

Interesting article in the hardball times on Mussina:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-mussina-renaissance/

I want Mussina to stay, but I guess he should be a type A FA, am I wrong?

This would violate the Law of Yankee Thermodynamics, which states: “As a closed system must conserve heat, as soon as one player on the roster gets hot another player must get equally cold.”

Or said hot player will get injured to a degree that either prevents said player from playing or allows said player to play in a manner that reduces his defense and freezes his offense.

Mike K.  I don’t buy reason 2 and reason 3 is not what they’d be bothering for.  Reason 1 shouldn’t be an obstacle if the organization wanted it.  The real deterrent would be not exposing him too soon and shaking his confidence.  But unless the team plans to play Damon in CF every day and is happy with that, I think there’s a chance—just a chance—that the best CF in the orgaization right now is in AA.  Stranger things have happened.

It would definitely do more harm than good in A Jax development to bring him up as a bench player or even a 4th outfielder. The ONLY way I see him coming up is when rosters expand and the minor league seasons are about done, just to give him a taste of the big league environment and culture.

Whose idea is this to bring him up to ride the bench?  That would be truly idiotic.

He’s got an .809 OPS in AA. Sure it’s a pitcher’s park, but seriously, he’s not ready to contribute. He won’t give you anything Melky/Christian doesn’t already.

bringing him up would be more disappointing than gardners contribution (if you wanna call it that). Besides slaying papelboner gardner did not show me much.

A-Jax will be ready for the 2010 season, maybe he gets the call late in 2009. I think the best idea is to keep Melky for the next season rather than sign a FA to a multi year contract and then pray for A-Jax to be the real deal in 2010

re: Jackson.  see Maybin, Cameron.

“In my dream Moose’s 20th win comes at Fenway 9/28 and clinches a playoff berth.”

Finally getting that perfect game?

I wonder if the Brewers will pickup their $10M option on Mike Cameron because he would be a really nice stop-gap CF for the Yankees.

Mike K.  I don’t buy reason 2 and reason 3 is not what they’d be bothering for.  Reason 1 shouldn’t be an obstacle if the organization wanted it.

Frog,

Yeah, I understand if YOU brought him up, it would be to play every day.  What I was trying to get to is I don’t think the YANKEES would want him playing every day.  I’m sure they still remember what happened when they brought Melky up from AA for a look-see a few years ago (aside: I have no idea if that stunted Melky’s growth, and I do believe Jackson is a better prospect than Melky was.  But you can see how that would give the Yankees reason to pause).  So I think that if the Yankees brought him up, it would only be to improve their bench.

If that is the case, I think all 3 reasons are valid.  If however they were looking at him as being a starter, then yeah, none of those things would get in the way.  I think at this point they’re comfortable with Damon and still giving Melky an occasional start, to see if he can turn it on.

How about no TVH

How about Moose’s 25th Win comes against Boston in his last start? Since we’re dreaming, I’ll dream big.

Cliff Lee is probably going to get the Cy Young award though.

How about Moose’s 25th Win comes against Boston in his last start? Since we’re dreaming, I’ll dream big.

Are you envisioning a one-game playoff a la ‘78?  Cuz I don’t think he’ll get 10 more starts otherwise.  More like 9.

Oh I was just going with Larry’s predicted starts. Didn’t bother to count for myself. The idea was he wins the rest of his starts.

<i>Are you envisioning a one-game playoff a la ‘78?  Cuz I don’t think he’ll get 10 more starts otherwise.  More like 9. </i?

24th win against Boston then.  No flame war on this topic.

Hot darn, Moose is better than golden goose.

Cuz I don’t think he’ll get 10 more starts otherwise.  More like 9

See Larry’s post #9 above.  He has it all planned out to 10…

Cliff Lee is probably going to get the Cy Young award though

If Moose wins 25 games he’ll win the Cy Young.  For one, I think the Yankees will make the playoffs and he’ll get a big boost from that.  For two, no one has done it in 18 years, so it will get a lot of press.  Sure, there are still scenerios where Lee or even K-Rod will win the Cy, but if Moose gets 25 I have to imagine he’ll win.

At least I didn’t break the thread.  Phew.

At least I didn’t break the thread.  Phew.

I think the powers-that-be have added some protection to keep us from doing that any more.

Hey! Didn’t there used to be someone posting here as *cutter*? Wonder what became of him.

He was a jerk so I’m glad he’s gone.  But damn, he was so smooth with the ladies…..

“an extra spot on the 40 right now, but that actually is being saved for Pavano”

Speaking of Pavano…

i think if krod is in the conversation Mo most definitely has to be in the conversation..

K Rod - 45/49 in save opps ///48.2ip 33h 13er 4hr 28bb 51K 2.40ERA 1.25WHIP .189BAA

Mo - 28/28 in save opps ///50.1ip 31h 8er 3hr 5BB 61K 1.43ERA 0.72WHIP .176BAA

I am not sure the massive amount of saves is enough to say he deserves a cy young more than Mo. He has been perfect in save opps (though not so perfect otherwise)

Sure, there are still scenerios where Lee or even K-Rod will win the Cy, but if Moose gets 25 I have to imagine he’ll win.

Too bad Moose has a nearly zero chance of winning 25. K-rod is the front runner because of the OMG!1!! Saves factor, and Lee is 15-2 on a lousy team, so he’s got a shot if he finishes 20-3, Clemens style, or something similiar.

Wait so if pavano makes one more start we paid $2 Million for each of his starts? Nice. What was clemens getting a start last year like $500K?

Wait so if pavano makes one more start we paid $2 Million for each of his starts? Nice.

Is it irony that this is probably the only time period that the Yankees really desperately need a recovered Pavano?

Still like this?

So the Yankee starting staff right now is:
1. Mussina
2. Ponson
3. Giese
4. Kennedy
5. Rasner

Is it irony that this is probably the only time period that the Yankees really desperately need a recovered Pavano?

i think it is also a little “ironic” that if he came back this year, wouldn’t that be a relatively FAST recovery from TJS?

pettitte in..rasner out

Pettitte is still in the rotation, at least for now.

I am not sure the massive amount of saves is enough to say he deserves a cy young more than Mo. He has been perfect in save opps (though not so perfect otherwise)

Since when does “deserving” have anything to do with winning the Cy Young?  I think Mo will definitely be in the discussion, but if K-Rod has 25 more saves than Mo at the end of the year, it won’t happen.  If on the other hand K-Rod goes into a slump (and hopefully the Yankees can help that along), and “only” gets 55 saves, Mo has a shot at jumping ahead of him.

Too bad Moose has a nearly zero chance of winning 25. K-rod is the front runner because of the OMG!1!! Saves factor, and Lee is 15-2 on a lousy team, so he’s got a shot if he finishes 20-3, Clemens style, or something similiar.

100% agree.  Like above, if K-Rod (or Lee) falters, Moose (or Mo) could still get into the discussion.  But if I had to pick a Cy Young winner today, I’d say either K-Rod or Lee.

i think it is also a little “ironic” that if he came back this year, wouldn’t that be a relatively FAST recovery from TJS?

I think it has been about 15 months.  I think that falls in the typical range for being able to pitch again.  They say it is something like a year before you can start pitching again, and another year to get back to where you were before, no?  Makes sense that he is pitching, but I think his velocity is down a bit.

i think it is also a little “ironic” that if he came back this year, wouldn’t that be a relatively FAST recovery from TJS?

I’ve listen to enough Yankee broadcast to lose the meaning of irony.

Also, the 25 wins thing was a complete joke. I was just dreaming. Wasn’t intending any seriousness.

Plus he faces baltimore 1 more time. 24 wins is much more serious.

I think neither Mo nor K-Rod will win the Cy. It’s gonna be Lee, unless Moose wins 20. Then the Lifetime Achievement Award, sentimental old guy syndrome could come into play. But if Moose wins 19 and strikes out ever batter between now and the end of the season, he won’t win it. Has to be the magic number.

Moose (or Mo) could still get into the discussion.

Absolutely, Moose is getting stronger, if he bags 5 more wins and pushes his ERA to 3.00 (not sure what that would take, but it seems possible), he’s not only in the discussion, he probably deserves to be in it. His relative lack of innings almost certainly eliminates his possibility of winning though, I think.

More wins at the end of season, Cliff or Moose?

think if krod is in the conversation Mo most definitely has to be in the conversation..

And what about Soria? He leads the AL in WPA (Win Probabiliy Added). Has blown only 2 saves on 32 chances and has an ERA of 1.57.

No way Krod wins it because of the OMG LOOK AT ALL THE SAVES factor. Only 2 closers have won it since 1990…Eck in 92 and Gagne with his unbelievable year in 2003.

Even if Krod notches 75 saves it will pale in comparison to Gagnes 2003. IIRC there was not any starter very worthy in the NL that season.

Sorry, Cliff leads the AL in WAP for pitchers, Soria is second.

as much as i love Mo, it would be kindof ridiculous if he won the CY.

he’s pitching very well, but there HAVE been a few too many instances of him spitting the bit in “non-save” situations.  i am not saying he hasn’t been great this year, or that there is any reason to think this is anything more than a statistical fluke….but at the same time, saying he has converted every “save situation” really just highlights the weakness of the save statistic and glosses over the 6 times he’s come in with the score tied and coughed up the lead (his offense bailed him out twice).

i feel like i need to flog myself for saying negative things about Mo.  forgive me Mo, i don’t mean it.

Mos numbers look better than sorias (to me) and I think Mo could get some lifetime achievement votes as well.

Not saying he is going to win it obviously.

yup - i agree that save is somewhat arbitrary stat. Many if not most of closers wins come on blown saves. Its an opportunity stat like wins, rbis and runs.

even though mo has not been great in non saves he is well more than good enough in save situations to pretty much hide that fact.

sorry for the rare triple post..unless someone got one in before me

comment padding.

More wins at the end of season, Cliff or Moose?

Moose.

Even if Krod notches 75 saves it will pale in comparison to Gagnes 2003.

He’ll have broken the record by 18 saves.  It doesn’t matter how useful the stat *really* is, it’s what the voters think.  I’m sure you’ll start hearing some say, “the save may be an overrated stat, but you HAVE to be good to get that many”.  If no starter gets to 20 wins and K-Rod has over 70, he’s probably going to win it.

as much as i love Mo, it would be kindof ridiculous if he won the CY.

Depends how he finishes the year, right?  Mo could very well pitch 25 shutout innings the rest of the year, picking up 22 saves and 3 wins.  But yeah, he needs to do more to “deserve” it.

SG- What’s your take on WAP?

SG. I meant WPA?

“He’ll have broken the record by 18 saves”

The following is complete opinion:
That record sucks…it should not be a big deal. Saves are fairly new to the game and he happens to be on a team that wins a lot of close games. The cy young should go to the entire angels team if it goes to him.

Not to mention the fact that Krod got caught with pine tar on the hand not too long ago.

I guess we just dont know what those crazy voters are going to do next.

i guess the pine tar thing doesnt matter because peavy got caught too and he still won

I think it has been about 15 months.

Pretty good guess.  Pavano had his TJS on June 6 of last year.  So he’s right at 14 months.  It’s pretty rare to see guys pitching in the majors again in less than 18 months post TJS.  Liriano’s surgery was in November of 2006, and he missed all of 2007.  With the luxury of using ST to do his rehab, he was “ready” for the start of this season.  Of course, he got lit up like a Christmas tree in his three April starts, so maybe he really wasn’t quite ready yet.  So yeah, it would be on the quick side of the recovery curve if Pavano pitched in the majors before the end of this season.

I think his velocity is down a bit.

That probably should be expected at this point in the recovery.  However, I think most guys have said that their velocity came back before their command, which wouldn’t surprise me given that they basically haven’t touched a baseball for a year.

Pretty good guess.  Pavano had his TJS on June 6 of last year.

Thanks for clarifying; when I googled it the first several hits either talked about his recovery this year, or were from late-May 07 stating he was *going* to have the surgery.  I figured if I was within a month, it was close enough.  Yeah, 18 months sounded right, but I figured most were doing rehab starts a few months before that (and if the Yankees weren’t desparate Pavano wouldn’t be in the conversation), so right around where he should be.  It also wouldn’t surprise me if he were ahead of the curve considering he’s had LOTS of rest the past 4 years

That record sucks…it should not be a big deal. Saves are fairly new to the game and he happens to be on a team that wins a lot of close games. The cy young should go to the entire angels team if it goes to him.

You’re preaching to the choir.  Unfortunately, I think a number of baseball writers are in a different choir.

Also, IMO the CYA is Lee’s to lose.  And if he slips, Halladay seems most likely to jump to the front of the line.  He’s going to lead the league in IP by a large margin, he’s second in WHIP, third in ERA and strikeouts, and is tied for the major league lead in complete games with the Cleveland Indians.

It also wouldn’t surprise me if he were ahead of the curve considering he’s had LOTS of rest the past 4 years

Fortuitously this also happens to be the last year of his contract.  If he really wants to dupe some other team into signing him, he needs to show that he can still pitch.  Mind you, that doesn’t mean that he’ll *actually* pitch once the ink dries up on the new deal, but he has to put on a convincing show for now, at least.

The English Patient aka Carl Pavano will save the season for the Yankees.  Willis Reed’s heroics will become a forgotten relic next to the grandeur of The English Patient’s deeds.

So yeah, it would be on the quick side of the recovery curve if Pavano pitched in the majors before the end of this season.

It’s a good thing he has a lot of practice with the rehab part then.

The English Patient aka Carl Pavano will save the season for the Yankees.

I would love to see this happen.

As for the Cy Young, Halladay and Lee have separated themselves from the pack of AL starters.  I’m guessing those two will be the front runners among starters for statheads and actual voters alike.  Then there’s guys like Saunders, Mussina, and Ervin Santana who will need to rack up big win totals to get into the conversation.

As for the relievers, KRod and Mariano are both reasonable candidates, but I think the two of them might split the reliever vote and cancel each other out.  The presence of Soria, who’s been just as good as the first two, can only dilute support for a reliever.

To me, if Halladay and Lee are close, I’m inclined to vote for Halladay given his deserved reputation as one of the best starters in the AL.

As for the relievers, KRod and Mariano are both reasonable candidates, but I think the two of them might split the reliever vote and cancel each other out.  The presence of Soria, who’s been just as good as the first two, can only dilute support for a reliever.

CY voter: what is a Soria?

That’s my assumption.

      W   L   IP   ERA   ERA+  WHIP
Halladay: 13   8   175.3   2.77   151   1.021
Lee:    15   2   153.7   2.58   168   1.080
Moose:  15   7   140.3   3.27   128   1.204

W L IP ERA ERA+ WHIP
Halladay: 13 8 175.3 2.77 151 1.021
Lee:  15 2 153.7 2.58 168 1.080
Moose:  15 7 140.3 3.27 128 1.204

without 20 wins moose doesnt have a pavanos chance in yankee stadium

It is a tribute to the amazing season he’s had that we’re discussing this.  Moose will likely end up in the top 3-4 in the voting, and that’s something for him to hang his hat on, for sure. 

Keep him around next year or let him walk?

without 20 wins moose doesnt have a pavanos chance in yankee stadium

20 wins for Moose is definitely a treat in itself.

For CY, not just 20 wins but at least a 2 win differential from Lee.  Right?

Also, IMO the CYA is Lee’s to lose.  And if he slips, Halladay seems most likely to jump to the front of the line.

I agree, but what may hurt Halladay is his W/L.  He may go 2-4 the rest of the way even if he has an ERA of 1.5 over that stretch.  Even though he would clearly be the best pitcher in the league (this is assuming Lee has faltered), Moose going 21-8 (or Saunders or Santana getting to 20) would get more votes.  15-12?  He’s only a .500 pitcher after all!

Keep him around next year or let him walk?

Hmm…tough one.  If they aren’t serious about making a run at CC then definitely, for a 1-year deal (possibly with a team option that can be vested).  If they want CC?  More problematic, depending on how Hughes, Kennedy, Joba, and Wang do the rest of the year (Wang likely just not having any setbacks).  I’d say right now there is a 75% chance Moose is back next year.

Giles blocked waiver deal Bosox-obviously a man of character

Keep Abreu or not?

I do think voters have overcome—or are overcomg—the 20-win thing, and even the near-20-win thing.  They gave it to Pedro in ‘97 (17 wins) and Webb (16 wins) a couple of years ago.  Also Randy one year had 17. 

So I do think if Lee falters then Halladay, if he can just finish 17-10, will take it.  And deserve it, too.

No, keep Nady, Abreu’s going to be too expensive and want a multi-year deal. Smarter people than I on this site have discussed that before. I don’t think Abreu will be worth more than a 1-2 year deal, and he’d never accept one that short.

I think Nady puts the Yankees in the happy position of not having to consider keeping Abreu.  Take those draft picks and spend the money elsewhere.

im going to say 84% moose is back next year with some form of 2 year deal.

I would love to have Moose back but what would give me pause is that he’s unlikely to pitch more than 180 innings again.

***Old baseball saying alert.***

- Better to trade a player a year early than a year late. -

Apply this as FA to Mussina. I cannot imagine him performing anywhere near this level in 2009.

I’m 80% Abreu’s gone and 60% Moose is back.

I expect the Yankees to lose out on CC and go with basically the current pitching staff.

Letting Abreu walk is a no-brainer with Nady under contract for the next year. Let other team have a declining hitter who is afraid of the wall, then take the picks.

Giles blocked waiver deal Bosox-obviously a man of character

I realize this is tongue-in-cheek, but I gotta say, a guy who’d rather play the last 6 weeks of the season with a moribund team rather than joining a team in the thick of an exciting pennant race is kind of a loser in my book. 

I mean, I know he’s from the west coast or whatever, but I mean, really: 6 weeks.

Don’t forget soft, too.