Sunday, October 11, 2009
Yankees (103-59) @ Twins (87-76), Sunday, October 11, 2009, 7:07pm **Game Chatter**
Lineups
Minnesota Twins
Denard Span, CF (.312/.387/.417, 3.9 WAR)
Orlando Cabrera, SS (.283/.313/.385, 0.2 WAR)
Joe Mauer, C (.364/.442/.586, 6.9 WAR)
Michael Cuddyer, 1B (.276/.342/.520, 1.3 WAR)
Jason Kubel, RF (.300/.369/.535, 2.7 WAR)
Delmon Young, LF (.285/.307/.428, -0.8 WAR)
Brendan Harris, 3B (.262/.307/.363, -0.9 WAR)
Jose Morales, DH (.316/.386/.368, 0.0 WAR)
Nick Punto, 2B (.228/.326/.285, 0.8 WAR)
Total, (.293/.354/.445, 14.1 WAR)
New York Yankees
Derek Jeter, SS (.334/.404/.465, 5.7 WAR)
Johnny Damon, LF (.282/.364/.489, 3.1 WAR)
Mark Teixeira, 1B (.292/.383/.565, 4.7 WAR)
Alex Rodriguez, 3B (.286/.402/.532, 3.5 WAR)
Hideki Matsui, DH (.274/.366/.509, 1.9 WAR)
Jorge Posada, C (.285/.363/.522, 1.3 WAR)
Robinson Cano, 2B (.320/.352/.520, 3.5 WAR)
Nick Swisher, RF (.249/.369/.498, 3.0 WAR)
Melky Cabrera, CF (.274/.333/.416, 0.9 WAR)
Total, (.291/.372/.502, 27.6 WAR)
Yankee Win Probability: 63.4%
With what seems like a commanding 2-0 lead in the ALDS, the Yankees have a chance to advance to the ALCS with a victory today. They’ll be sending Andy Pettitte out to try and wrap up the series against former Yankee Carl Pavano.
By the time the 2009 All Star Break arrived, Pettitte had started 18 games and hadn’t really pitched all that well. He had an ERA of 4.85 (FIP of 4.99). Opponents hit .283/.352/.443 against him during the first half. He walked around 3.6 people per nine innings while striking out around 5.8.
Since the break, he’s been a completely different pitcher. He’s got an ERA of 3.31 (FIP of 3.29), and opponents hit .226/.296/.326 against him. His BB/9 dropped to 3.3 while his K rate spike to 8.1 per 9. Overall, it was a fine season for Pettitte after a somewhat disappointing 2008.
Pavano’s tenure in pinstripes was an unmitigated disaster, as injuries held him to 26 starts over four seasons, compared to 33 starts this season alone. All for the bargain price of $40 million.
I’m not sure why, but I really don’t hate Pavano like a lot of Yankee fans do. Maybe it’s because I am skeptical that he was faking being hurt. If he was, the Yankees would surely have filed a grievance, wouldn’t they? It was pretty clearly a bad signing at the time it was made, but is that something to blame Pavano for, or is that something to blame the Yankee front office for? Regardless, that doesn’t mean I wouldn’t enjoy seeing the Yankees knock him out of the game in the first inning by putting up a ten spot.
Anyway, despite putting up a barely better than replacement-level 5.10 ERA this season between Minnesota and Cleveland, Pavano’s actually pitched ok. He had a FIP of 4.01, but was hurt by playing in front of two of the worst team defenses in MLB this year if you go by UZR, with the Twins at -36 and the Indians at -34. Because of that, Pavano allowed a BABIP of .335 this season, compared to .312 in his career. Pavano’s velocity is essentially what it has been throughout his career according to the data at Fangraphs, but one thing he’s doing differently this year is throwing his changeup more frequently (23.1% of the time compared to 15.6% career). The only AL pitcher who had a better BB/9 rate this year amongst ERA qualifiers was Roy Halladay.
All that being said, he’s probably not as good as his FIP says he is, although his HR/FB rate isn’t fluky either so he hasn’t been particularly lucky in that regard. CAIRO thinks he’s closer to that 5.10 ERA than his 4.00 FIP. But he has pitched well against the Yankees in two starts this year, with a 2.70 ERA in 13.1 IP, with 1 BB and 8 Ks. Of course that doesn’t really tell us anything more about him than his overall line does due to the small sample size.
The Yankees paid Pavano $40 million and got something like 0.4 wins above replacement out of it. That works out to around $100M per marginal win. Considering the going rate is generally $4-5M, it’s safe to say that the Pavano deal wasn’t so good. So the Yankees probably lost something like $38M over the life of Pavano’s deal.
That is clearly not good for the business side of things. If the Yankees can win today, they advance to the ALCS. That means at least two more home games. The average ticket price for a Yankee ALDS game this year is around $170 according to Stubhub. NYS holds about 52,325 if we included standing room. If we bump up the average ticket price to $200 for the ALCS and assume they sell $20 of concessions/merchandise per person, that means two more home games add $10.4M in revenue. And if the Yankees then go on to the World Series, they’d get at least another two home games and probably add even more than that.
In theory, a win today could give the Yankees eight more postseason games at home, and a total revenue of $92M additional dollars. That not only pays for the Pavano contract, it pays for Tony Womack and Jaret Wright too!
Making money is important. The Yankees can’t make more money if they don’t advance to the ALCS. That makes tonight’s game mega-important. Quite frankly, the entire financial future of the Yankees is at stake.
Go Yankees.
Comments
Is it safe to say that when the Red Sox sit down to deal with Jason Bay, they’ll do a financial analysis of what his poor throw to the IF cost them in terms of postseason revenue, roll the tape, and then talk him down 6-10M?
The amazing thing about Pavano is that after all those years with the Yankees, we still know nothing about his pitches.
i just hope we can shake this MT curse
Motor Trend?
[3]
Ha!
Why is Melky starting? Does anyone here want him out there?
Speaking of puzzling platoon choices, is anyone keeping up with the whole Ronnie Belliard / Orlando Hudson thing in L.A. Any insights from Torre haters?
[6] Given that hje’s played OF in the dome already, no.
how does an 885 OPS at catcher only give you 1.3 WAR.
That is weird. Playing time? His slash line is better than Damon’s, and Damon is around 3 WAR in a corner outfield spot…
I guess it’s the defense. I went back to the last few game threads to look, and it’s the same.
how does an 885 OPS at catcher only give you 1.3 WAR.
1) Looking at a rate stat like OPS ignores playing time. Posada only got 438 PAs this year. In terms of total batting runs above replacement he’s 3rd behind Joe Mauer and Victor Martinez, but Mauer got 600 PAs and Victor Martinez got 672. I do adjust the runs above replacement by each position played, so Mauer’s time at DH gets compared to DHs and Martinez’s time at 1B gets compared to 1B, but that’s big difference in playing time.
2) Defense. I have Posada at around -10 for the year. That’s um, not good.
3) Baserunning. Posada’s non-SB baserunning is rated at -8 according to Baseball Prospectus.
So if he was an average defender and an average baserunner, he’d be at 3.1 WAR. But he’s not, so he isn’t.
Admittedly, we are a lot more comfortable assessing offense than we are defense and baserunning, so how much weight you want to give to each component could change things.
Fangraphs has Posada at 4 WAR this season, which is a pretty big discrepancy
Ah, didn’t see [12] before I posted [13]. Thanks for the explanation.
Woot ! Pap gets smeared.
I don’t feel sorry for any Sox fans. Not a one. Being a fan involves choice.
It is my contention that everyone either IS a Yankee fan, or wishes they COULD BE one.
[8] Melky played a lousy outfield in game 2. Why didn’t he make an attempt on the triple that Damon messed up? He jogged over and go to close. Why didn’t Melky attempt a sliding catch on Mauer’s double? The guy is just BLAH as a ballplayer!
Yeah, Fangraphs uses neither catcher defense or baserunning in their version of WAR.
Pavano ONLY got $39.5M (including the buyout for the option year). He then fired his agent for not getting the deal done for the $40M and withheld the agent’s commission. Seriously.
Getting beat by Pavano tonight will seriously suck. It doesn’t matter whether you have any anger for him or not.
seriously Yankees, please fuck this guy up.
[16] Sorry, meant that given that Gardner‘s already played in the Dome, no reason not to start him ... unless Girardi wants to PR him. (Stupid idea, yes, but who knows.)
Can the Yankees maybe score first in one of these games?
Wow, Pavano makes our guys look like chumps….I’m gonna call a quality start for Carl as of right now. Just so as not to be overly grim, I’ll also call a Yanks win, 4-3.
Well, not the best first inning. But that hasn’t been their forte this year.
Be nice to wrap it up tonight.
Pavano is a true ace. He should be a red sock.
did mlb add a sync feature that doesn’t work just to piss me off? I’m so unhappy with this.
[25] I hear thet have like 20 aces, but the closer job may be open.
This is the first time I’ve noticed this, but does Jeter cross himself in his pre-at-bat routine?
Strike one to Mauer - but, of course, the umpire calls strikes based on where the catcher is set up so since Posada reached back, its a ball….
Geez, Pettitte hit 92 on the 2nd pitch to Mauer. Has he thrown a pitch that fast all year?
[27] snicker….. Good one.
[30] Pumped up for the playoffs? Pumped up to face a true legend in Pavana?
36
MLB Postseason TV is seriously pissing me off.
It doesn’t work and was a waste of ten dollars.
I have a black screen up and i’m now listening to 880.
Maybe I got banned for being in NYC? It “worked” a second ago…..
What the F was wrong with the 0-2 pitch, blue ?
They’ve looked lousy first time through the order this whole series. Bizarre.
obviously [33] was to commiserate with [26].
Congratulations to Carl Pavano on his first perfect game.
I fear a perfecto in the making. This King Karl guy is too good for MLB.
Congrats to Carl Pavano on his first career perfect game. He is a true professional and no one deserves the success more than him.
I’m just eyeballing it, but it looks like the Yankees have scored <5 runs per game the last few weeks. I think a few guys are slumping (Damon, Melky?).
[36] There’s no reason I should have any trouble streaming this feed. My connection is usually around 15 Mbps which should be plenty to stream non HD footage.
[38] Maybe he’ll be able to parlay it into a whopping big contract. Somebody’s bound to overpay.
Fielded by Paul Blart…
That’s how you deal with Kubel, Marte. Take notes.
“Andy Pettite holds serve for the Yankees”...love the tennis reference.
[41] that is a ton of bandwith.
My biggest beef with postseason tv isn’t the fact that it goes black every half inning, it’s that the stupid multiangle feeds are worth a lot less than just the normal tv picture.
If I had that and could refresh it when it froze, I wouldn’t be heading out to a bar to watch the game.
In re the Wendy’s radio commercial for “Wendy’s chicken with Asian sauce”, am I the only one who finds this funny?
Andy doing well in Brett Farvray Stadium. Can’t match zero’s with the King much longer. Who could?
The place is crawling with TV cameras and producers. Why on earth do you need to show the stadium panorama from inside a video game simulation ? In case people don’t want to watch, uh…the broadcast actually taking place in said stadium.
I get that the answer is they were paid to do so and it’s actually a stealth commercial. But c’mon, that’s cheesy.
The Twin Cities are under attack, Pavano has come to save them.
The postseason.tv is markedly worse today.
[46] I’m just guessing, but the multi-angle feeds may be forced by their contract with TBS? “You can’t sell our tv feed over the internet” or something like that.
nother first pitch strike
Anyone catch the head shot of Clark W. Griswold in his metrodome hat ?
Love how Caray says “that doesn’t miss by much” for a pitch by Pavano that was exactly the same as a Pettitte pitch for which he said nothing.
[46] Yeah, its the top of the line home cable package here in LA, we split it between two apartments and 8 people over a wireless signal. But I’m hardwired in.
[54] Yep, and he’s been good on Community so far.
[54] See Rusty beside him?
Gotta love Swish.
Swisher confusing the pitchtrax count with the Umpire’s alternate count.
Nick Swisher’s TYM.
This is a nightmare already.
Did Pavano strike out 4 people in his entire Yankee stint?
Note to the Yankees hitters, Pavano is going out of the zone on EVERY 3-2 pitch. Maybe one guy just take a walk.
Thank you, Melky.
Oh noes!! Melky you mojo breaker.
That was close. Punto almost got him the the slow-roll-throw.
There goes the perfecto.
Aaawwwww. Sniff.
Nice throw by Punta.
I’ll take the one hit. Maximum humiliation is no longer a possibility.
Right were we wannem.
[67] I remember Bernie making several throws like Punto’s in the 02 ALDS against the Angels.
Nice job, Swish
where.
And that, boys, is what it would look like with Damon playing 2nd.
[69] Complete game shutout loss at the soft hands of Pavano is still 9.5 on the humiliation scale.
That’s what it looks like with Damon playing LF…
[75] sure, but it’s a little bit better when you remember it goes up to 11.
Congratulations to Pavano on his first postseason shutout.
I like that Pettitte busted out the Miami Vice stubble for the playoffs.
[77] But 11 was only reached once in my lifetime, and it involved Kevin Brown.
You know what’s something I could hear Chip Caray say? “Andy Pettitte just knows his way around a mound, especially in October.” I don’t know why that popped in my head, but isn’t that just a typical Carayism?
9.5 out of 11 still ain’t very good.
[80] Reds in 76 was a 10.5.
This is unacceptable.
Girardi needs to get himself thrown out.
So….the story line of the game is that Pettitte has never pitched on artificial turf, in the postseason ?
There’s gotta be some other inane angle they could get more mileage out of. A-Rod’s contract ? A-Rod’s surgery ? A-Rod’s girlfriend ? How his teammates do/don’t get along with A-Rod ? NYS being a launching pad, and the game isn’t being played there ? How the new Twins stadium won’t be a disgraceful launching pad ?
This is fucking ridiculous.
[83] I wasn’t alive to judge, but just knowing that they lost to Joe Morgan’s Reds is annoying.
Holy frack, that was high. Umpires doing a bangup job again. And once again, Darling making excuses saying that “that ball sinks” or some such crap.
[86] They could talk about the fact that if the Twins played outdoors, like the will next year, there is a chance the late innings of this game would be played in snow flurries.
Or explain why they are defending the ump when pitchtrax clearly disagrees.
WOE
Is that 6 K through 12 batters?
[88] It sucked. Yankees were the 99 Braves. 04 Cards. 27 Pirates, it just sucked.
13, I guess.
[90] They contractually can’t? They have no idea how pitchtrax works? They are raving idiots.
[89] I don’t think Darling understands that it suppose to be judge based on where it crosses the plate and if it wasn’t in the zone then but bends into the zone when it hits the mitt that still doesn’t make it a strike.
Or maybe he did too much cocaine with Straw and Doc.
STRIKE ONE! Will Caray or Darling ever back the Yankees on these balls clearly in the zone?
Nice Frame by Posada there.
game day says Andy should have struck him out.
That works too.
Next entry: Yankees.com: Late homers push Yanks to ALDS sweep
Previous entry: MLB.com: Angels 7, Red Sox 6
There are currently 69 visitors who are not logged in.
There was a record 241 simultaneous visitors on May 2, 2011 at 11:54:25 pm.











