Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Yankees (103-59) @ Angels (97-65), Tuesday, October 20, 2009, 7:57pm **Mismatch Chatter**
Lineups
1899 Cleveland Spiders
Derek Jeter, SS (.334/.404/.465, 5.7 WAR)
Johnny Damon, LF (.282/.364/.489, 3.1 WAR)
Mark Teixeira, 1B (.292/.383/.565, 4.7 WAR)
Alex Rodriguez, 3B (.286/.402/.532, 3.5 WAR)
Jorge Posada, C (.285/.363/.522, 1.3 WAR)
Hideki Matsui, DH (.274/.366/.509, 1.9 WAR)
Robinson Cano, 2B (.320/.352/.520, 3.5 WAR)
Nick Swisher, RF (.249/.369/.498, 3.0 WAR)
Melky Cabrera, CF (.274/.333/.416, 0.9 WAR)
Total, (.291/.372/.502, 27.6 WAR)
California Angels
Chone Figgins, 3B (.298/.391/.393, 5.7 WAR)
Bobby Abreu, RF (.293/.390/.435, 2.1 WAR)
Torii Hunter, CF (.299/.366/.508, 3.0 WAR)
Vladimir Guerrero, DH (.295/.334/.460, 0.0 WAR)
Juan Rivera, LF (.287/.332/.478, 2.1 WAR)
Howie Kendrick, 2B (.291/.333/.444, 1.6 WAR)
Kendry Morales, 1B (.306/.355/.569, 3.4 WAR)
Mike Napoli, C (.272/.350/.492, 1.3 WAR)
Erick Aybar, SS (.312/.345/.423, 3.1 WAR)
Total, (.296/.358/.466, 22.3 WAR)
Yankee Win Probability: -100.0%
After a tough loss yesterday, the Yankees look to rebound in Game 4. The good news is that they’ll be sending out their ace, CC Sabathia, to try and do it.
Sabathia will be pitching on three days of rest, something he’s done four times in his career. He’s managed to be effective doing it, but four games is a very small sample size so it doesn’t necessarily mean we should expect him to be as good as he’s been in the past.
According to chapter 7 of The Book, pitchers who started on three days rest allowed a wOBA of .369 on average. The same group of pitchers allowed a wOBA of .352 on four days rest.
So pitchers on three days rest are roughly five percent worse than they would be on four days rest.
Sabathia’s going-forward projection has him allowing about 0.104 runs per batter faced. He averaged 28 batters faced per game this season, but I’ll knock that down to 24 to account for the fact that they probably won’t extend him as long since he’s on short rest. Plus you need to make sure you use EVERY SINGLE RELIEVER IN YOUR BULLPEN IN EVERY GAME.
But I digress.
Anyway, the difference between normal Sabathia and short rest Sabathia would be something like 24 times 0.104 (2.4946) vs. 24 times 0.109 (2.6193). Or .125 runs. That lowers their win probability from 53.0% to 51.4%.
The Yankees blew a chance to take a commanding 3-0 lead in the ALCS with yesterday’s loss. A loss tonight would knot the series at 2-2, and give the Angels serious momentum. We all know that momentum is far more important than the talent of the two teams when figuring out who will win the series. We know this because of the fine analysis at Go Halos.com.
If the Yankees lose tonight, they have no possible chance to win this series. At all. They may as well not even play the rest of the series. That makes tonight an absolute must-win game, and the most important game in the history of the Yankees. Since the Yankees are the most important team in baseball, this is the most important game ever in the history of baseball.
It won’t be easy, because they’ll be facing Scott Kazmir, who has held the current Yankees to a collective line of .222/.307/.323. This is far more telling than any of the other things Kazmir or the Yankees have done against everyone else.
Only Mark Teixeira, Jorge Posada and Melky Cabrera have hit better than .182 against Kazmir among the Yankees who’d faced him at least ten times. Teixira has traded in his bat for Cody Ransom’s, so forget about him. Posada may be able to get on base, but if he does he’ll either run the bases horribly enough that he won’t score, or he’ll be pinch-run for in a move that will have a domino effect that will eventually culminate in Francisco Cervelli replacing Alex Rodriguez in the lineup and with no DH. As far as Melky, he’s hitting .200/.259/.200 this postseason, so you’ll forgive me for being skeptical about him doing anything useful.
So yeah, this game is going to suck. Maybe the Yankees will get lucky and the home plate umpire will have an awful strike zone that causes Joe Girardi to go off on him and get ejected. Then he can’t SCREW UP THE GAME BY CHANGING RELIEVERS UNTIL HE FINDS ONE WHO DOESN"T HAVE IT.
But I digress, again.
Maybe the Angels will make four or five errors that allow the Yankees to score a few runs, because the Yankee offense sure can’t do it on their own. Then maybe the Angels won’t pinch-hit with Jeff Mathis, who is apparently the best hitting catcher in MLB, and they’ll fall a run short of however many runs their defense give the Yankees.
Maybe.
Possibly.
Go Yankees.
Comments
Whatever?
Also, Angels in 6 is looking better and better.
I think Cash should use a lefty to manage tonight to counter Kazmir.
Whatever?
Whatever comes out Thursday after the Yankees lose tonight.
(2) The classic comic version of 04
Given that Girardi has given CC extra rest since early September* (CC’s most recent starts: 9/7, 9/13, 9/19, 9/26, 10/2, 10/7, 10/16), I think CC will pitch extremely well tonight.
*I can praise Girardi as well as criticize him.
What was the feeling on PHing Hairston for Gardner last night. It seems to me that Hairston is not an upgrade offensively and the bench would not hve been depleted and then as it happened we wouldn’t have had to burn the DH.
Matsui and Po flipflopped in the order.
[7] I thought they should have PR Guzman instead of Gardner for Matsui. If the plan was to PH Hairston if Gardner came up, then why waste Gardner (the team’s best OF defender) as a PR when you have another guy who can do that just as well.
Then PH Hairston for Guzman makes a ton of sense as Guzman might be the second worst hitter ever* allowed to be on a postseason roster.
* Teix is the worse, obviously.
Teix 2009 or Soriano 2003?
Jeter
Damon
Teix
Alex
Po
Matsui
Cano
Swisher
Cabrera
But it’s good for business so I’m all for and all against everything.
Can Mariano throw spitballs on back-to-back days?
Maybe he can use Posado’s urine rather than spit to avoid getting caught. Then Halo Heaven can unearth the video of Jorge leaking on the ball before tossing it back to Mo.
No matter what happens in this series, we’ll always have Halo Heaven and “a date with the Angels looms” to fall back upon. So we have that going for us. Which is nice.
[10] Soriano’s 26 K in 71 AB in 2003 is impressive.
[6] This optimism is inappropriate on a game thread.
Can’t wait for another first and third situation tonight with Swisher batting.
Has Girardi been fired yet?
Can’t wait for another first and third situation tonight with Swisher batting.
I agree. How will he make an out this time? Swinging bunt to the catcher?
I already dreamed CC giving up 7 runs, so I’m calling it 8-1 Angels. Alex will hit a lucky poke out.
[19] I dunno if Alex can hit without our disgrace of a stadium.
CC has pitched two games without his best stuff/command and been quite good. In warm weather I think he’ll be dominant.
Pregame optimism is OK.
To get it out of the way I am just going to congratulate Scott Kazmir on his first career perfect game.
the pie chart of sarcastic vs. analytical comments would not be pretty…
it would look like pacman!
actually, all pie charts with two categories look like pacman…
Can they at least get a lucky pop-fly or something? It doesn’t need to go out, just fall in for a duckfart hit.
If the Yankees lose tonight, they have no possible chance to win this series. At all. They may as well not even play the rest of the series.
Mahnken has hijacked SG’s brain.
I’m afraid I’m going to burn through my beerpen tonight.
How many beers do you have? 1 different brew for each Yankee pitcher, I hope.
Mahnken has hijacked SG�s brain.
You’re more right than you may now. Larry told me yesterday that if the Yankees lose tonight, he thinks the series is over.
I�m afraid I�m going to burn through my beerpen tonight.
Well, try not to dump out your Bass Ale half way through it in order to crack open a Coors Lite.
Heavy Seas Small Craft Warning IESB is the beer of choice this evening.
[29] I used up way too many for my own good yesterday. I only have a few left.
Ruth, Gehrig, Dimaggio, Mantle….. Costanza?
I love this episode.
Girardi was an IME at Northwestern, right? I wonder how many engineers we have in these parts.
Our almost host, Tony C, over at gohalos is now onboard the Mo is a cheater bandwagon. Hit me with your “expert” and oh-so-predictably-late analysis Tony:
Just saw this video. No wonder the ball cuts so well.
I am now quite glad we didn’t give this seaward a large traffic influx.
IOE from Michigan here - although that is the closest I’ve been to being an actual engineer.
I enjoyed Deadspin’s take on it. Especially this line to end it:
Unlikely as it is, the idea that Mariano Rivera, the Hammer of God himself, might throw some old-fashioned outlaw stuff to escape a tight spot is, to be frank, just about the coolest thing ever.
Mark Grace can s* a d*
[38] What did Grace say?
So… how does everyone think the Yankees will do tonight?
[39] He constantly mentions the 2001 WS, how ARI got to Mo in Game 7, his HR of Hernandez, etc, etc.
[36] ME from MIT (Nav Arch actually). Michigan has a helluva Nav Arch program.
Well, there’s a shocker. The “experts” pick the Angels to win tonight. You know, because of their grit and small payrollness etc…
Ready for some baseball here. Baaaaaseball please. Baseball.
Win please. Any means necessary.
Let’s go Yankees.
Hits, please.
I was optimistic until I saw the -100% win probability. So I guess I’ll just watch to see how the Angels win.
On my amateur baseball team, our slogan/dugout chant is “HIT THE BALL.”
Jeterian.
Oof.
Yay. Damn.
Just fantastic.
Official game.
Wha?
Oh, fuck it all.
That will be the only hit and probably the only base runner the Yankees get tonight.
Teix likes to look at pitches right down the middle of the plate.
I hope that gets the bad base running out of the Yankees’ system.
Was Jeter going on the first pitch, or just caught leaning wrong?
Frickin’ Pat Sajak again. This is all his fault.
our guys need to be more aggressive at the plate. that pitch was right down the middle of the plate.
Can CC hold them to -1 run? That would be helpful.
I’ll take Q, X, the Batman symbol, another Q…
Oh, Teix…
Well, lots of bad omens in that inning: Jeter getting picked off easily, Damon’s bat going further than the ball, Tiex hitting two foul ball home runs and then staring at a floating strike three.
Joy.
Meanwhile, having been to the game yesterday, I can say without a doubt that, while quite nice people, Angels fans really need the thundersticks and rally monkey to stay focused…I freaking hate those noisemakers.
[60] The 15-MPH-slower pitch after 7 hard fastballs and one slider?
Seriously, we’re complaining about Teix’s approach during a 9-pitch AB starting with him taking the first pitch and ending on a changeup at the edge of the gameday zone?
Abreu will proceed to steal his way to home.
Seriously, we’re complaining about Teix’s approach during a 9-pitch AB starting with him taking the first pitch and ending on a changeup at the edge of the gameday zone?
Girardi should be fired!
Swish with the high socks? Whatever it takes.
Girardi should’ve pinch-hit Hairston for Girardi somewhere in between pitch 5-7. Then played Marte at 1st base for the first batter and them sub him in for Coke.
That should be, pinch hit Hairston for Teixera...
Anyone else see the emery board fall out of CC’s pocket?? No other way to shut down that grutty lineup.
I expect to see Girardi PH himself into one of these games.
So, the issue with going three days rest for CC is most likely to appear in control, not velocity right? Despite what the tv will have us believe?
Okay, let’s do the non out thing Yankee bats.
[74] I would think CC could reduce velocity a bit to increase control, so who knows.
[72] - No, I think that was a Ouija board. CC is using it in a futile attempt to predict baseball.
[77] - Kudos, sir. Good work.
[76] Yeah, that would make sense. But is the basic premise right, or am I talking outta me behind?
There’s not an out.
Damn that was a ridiculous jump.
nice steal.
That SB only makes a Yankee hit unlikely now.
Wow. He must be training with Marion Jones.
[79] I’ve only heard that about the last stage of coming back from TJS…
That is a tight zone.
The Angels ain’t going to get no neighborhood call with Layne.
[86] He set up inside and it came inside. Right call, but called a strike by many umps.
[86] The zone is pretty fair according to gameday .
tight strike zone. hopefully cc’s got his control down today.
Here comes Hideki with a GITP.
If we score this inning this series is over. No joke.
Smart move by Kazmir to setup the guaranteed double-play here.
Steroids make you run faster.. that SB doesn’t count.
If we score this inning this series is over. No joke.
Was that your Angels fan impression?
They really cannot afford to let this guy off the hook, as bad as he looks.
This is getting really old.
0-for-21
A couple more non outs please.
Dammit, supposed to ground into the triple play so Robbie bats with bases empty next inning.
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