Thursday, October 22, 2009
Yankees (103-59) @ Angels (97-65), Thursday, October 22, 2009, 7:57pm **Mismatch Chatter**
Lineups
1916 Philadelphia Athletics
Derek Jeter, SS (.334/.404/.465, 5.7 WAR)
Johnny Damon, LF (.282/.364/.489, 3.1 WAR)
Mark Teixeira, 1B (.292/.383/.565, 4.7 WAR)
Alex Rodriguez, 3B (.286/.402/.532, 3.5 WAR)
Hideki Matsui, DH (.274/.366/.509, 1.9 WAR)
Robinson Cano, 2B (.320/.352/.520, 3.5 WAR)
Nick Swisher, RF (.249/.369/.498, 3.0 WAR)
Melky Cabrera, CF (.274/.333/.416, 0.9 WAR)
Jose Molina, C (.217/.290/.268, -0.7 WAR)
Total, (.289/.370/.493, 25.6 WAR)
California Angels
Chone Figgins, 3B (.298/.391/.393, 5.7 WAR)
Bobby Abreu, RF (.293/.390/.435, 2.1 WAR)
Torii Hunter, CF (.299/.366/.508, 3.0 WAR)
Vladimir Guerrero, DH (.295/.334/.460, 0.0 WAR)
Kendry Morales, 1B (.306/.355/.569, 3.4 WAR)
Maicer Izturis, 2B (.300/.357/.434, 2.5 WAR)
Juan Rivera, LF (.287/.332/.478, 2.1 WAR)
Jeff Mathis, C (.211/.279/.308, -0.9 WAR)
Erick Aybar, SS (.312/.345/.423, 3.1 WAR)
Total, (.294/.357/.454, 21.0 WAR)
Yankee Win Probability: -100.0%
The Yankees will go for the series win tonight in Anaheim with a 3-1 lead.
In 2008, the Tampa Bay Rays built up a 3-1 ALCS lead. They lost games 5 and 6 and couldn’t close the deal until Game 7.
In 2007, the Cleveland Indians also had a 3-1 ALCS lead. They proceeded to lose Games 5, 6 and 7 and the ALCS.
I don’t have time to go back past 2007, but this basically shows having a 3-1 lead in the best of 7 ALCS is essentially worthless. If it happened once, it could be a fluke, but it happened twice, which is more than enough proof that it’s not fluke. The biggest guarantee in sports right now is that an ALCS team with a 3-1 series lead WILL LOSE GAME 5.
A.J. Burnett’s been very effective so far in his first career taste of the postseason after a somewhat erratic regular season. Although he’s been pretty good in terms of runs allowed, he’s walked seven and hit four batters in 12.1 IP. Luckily for him, he has not allowed a HR yet and has held opposing hitters to just six hits. Whether that’s skill or luck, it’s good.
The problem is, he’ll be opposing John Lackey instead of Joe Saunders tonght. Lackey’s a better pitcher than Burnett. In terms of their projections, Burnett projects to typically allow about 2.95 runs over six innings. Lackey would project allow 2.82.
In order to win a baseball game, you have to score more runs than you allow.
2.95 > 2.82.
So the Yankees are starting tonight down by 0.13 runs already. Couple that with home field disadvantage, and the Yankees’ win probability is somewhere around 48.8%.
Could the Yankees pull of the unthinkable and win tonight? Sure, as long as they are aware that this is the most important game of the season and they treat it accordingly.
What would it take to win?
We know that the Yanks are in cahoots with MLB and the umpire’s union to make sure that they get every break imaginable, which is sure to help keep the game at least somewhat close. Hopefully the Bankees (see what I did here? I changed the Y to a B to signify the fact that the Yankees are the highest revenue team in MLB and that gives them an advantage over everyone else, but I did it in a clever way that plays on their actual name) have wired sufficient funds to the umpires’ bank accounts prior to tonight’s game.
Hopefully Mariano Rivera is teaching the entire pitching staff the art of the spitball. Even though the guy has pitched for 15 seasons in the biggest market in baseball in some of the highest profile games in the baseball postseason under the intense scrutiny of almost everyone involved in baseball and never been accused or suspected of any type of chicanery, it took the heroic efforts of an Angels’ fanboy blog to finally pinpoint the only reason for his success. He’s been spitting on the ball for all these years. Since the umps are on the take, expect Burnett and whomever else pitches in this game to follow suit.
Maybe Jose Molina goes yard tonight.
Maybe Jeff Mathis doesn’t hit a ringing gapper for an RBI double.
Go Yankees.
Comments
You are one creative dude, SG. No clue how you come up with these every day.
Let’s go skankees!
Great stuff SG, I’m glad you didn’t run away after all.
No clue how you come up with these every day.
Thank Bud Selig and Fox for all the off days. If it wasn’t for those, I don’t think I could do it.
Maybe Jose Molina goes yard tonight.
Are they closing and tearing down Angels stadium after this season?
Is it just more or are Angels fans much more (irrationally) positive than Yankees fans? I realize we’re dealing with a select group of Angels blogs, but they believe they’re in the game when it’s 7-1 in the 8th inning or whatever. It’s just weird to me. Must be the thunderstix/rally monkey crap.
[5] Should be, “Is it just me…”
[5] Most of them live in a state that has essentially legalized marijuana, and anything seems possible when you are high.
This also explains why Claybot thinks the Yankees would actually consider starting Hughes when he is so valuable in teh ate.
Is it just more or are Angels fans much more (irrationally) positive than Yankees fans?
Maybe we are irrationally negative?
[8] I fully accept that we are irrationally negative. I’m just wondering why Angels fans seem to be on the opposite end of the scale.
Maybe we are irrationally negative?
Why do you hate playing baseball the right way?
I think we’ve been burned too much by the past decade (starting with 2001) and being irrationally negative is just a coping mechanism. It is for me, anyway.
ok guys. I’ve thought it through and I’m pretty sure the Yankees are going to lose tonight.
A-J-B-U-R-N-E-T-T
J-O-H-N-L-A-C-K-E
+ + + - - - - - - (yankees probably lose)
c-c-s-a-b-a-t-h-i
s-c-o-t-t-k-a-z-m
+ = - + + + - + + Yankees win
a-n-d-y-p-e-t-t-i-t-t
j-e-r-e-d-w-e-a-v-e-r
+ - + - - + - - + - - Yankees lose in 11
a-j-b-u-r-n-e-t-t
j-o-e-s-a-u-n-d-e
+ + + - - + + - - Yankees win
c-c-s-a-b-a-t-h-i
J-O-H-N-L-A-C-K-E
+ + - + + = - + - Yankees win
It’s nice to see the makers of the Enigma machine have turned their attention to ballplayers.
The Angels are starting a “bulldog” named John Lackey. How can the Bankees fight off the intimidation factor enough to gain even one hit off a snarling canine? It seems to be an impossible task.
Maybe we are irrationally negative?
Of course we are, but part of that comes with being Goliath. The Yankees are the pre-season favorites most years, but generally don’t end those years with championships. A team that exceeds expectations (by, say, beating the Red Sox in the ALDS) can have happy fans without winning it all. The Yankees regularly reinforce our expectation that we want #27 (Jeter and the Steinbrenners have lots of quotes along those lines). Yet they let us down most years. Except for Yogi’s era, there was no other decade when the Yankees were able to win a World Series more often than not (not even with Ruth and Gehrig on the team). So we get disappointed and expect future disappointment and become negative. At least that lets us be pleasantly surprised when they perform as well as they are capable of doing (like they did this regular season).
How can the Bankees fight off the intimidation factor enough to gain even one hit off a snarling canine?
Sign Mike Vick?
[12] I have no idea what any of that means. Must be the metal plate in my head. No matter, I have it on good authority that the Angels will simply will themselves to a win because they “have nothing to lose.”
I am still uncertain as to the reason that tonight’s game is important.
Is it just me or does Joe Buck look a lot older all of a sudden?
Jeterian
Not a shabby start there. Guess we’re gonna attack tonight?
Horseshit call.
I don’t think a man on second counts as scoring position anymore for the Yankees.
You kidding me Tex?
Tex’s ill-timed slump doesn’t bother me, for some reason. Might have something to do with the guy hitting behind him.
This is very suboptimal.
Btw, with all this “protection,” shouldn’t Tex be raking? Might it be that protection is a myth?
Ahhh, men in scoring position and the Yankees, such fun times this postseason!
A-Rod reverts to type….................
[27] That’s crazy talk! What’re you, in your parents’ basement or something?
Wow, a LOT of empty seats.
Fucknuts.
7 for 48 with RISP.
Well that was fun. Or not.
What a fucking joke
Nice job by the 3-4-5 hitters. Real nice.
I blame A-Rod
I pray that good AJ arrives tonight.
Cano is contagious
I still remain optimistic.
[19] I think Artie Lang might have something to do with that.
Tiex didn’t get the call, but the last pitch was clearly ball 4. That sort of strikeout will even out over time.
It might be a long night.
i really hope tex picks up this game. + the world series if we make it
Not the best start.
Well, this is gonna be a long night…
That was disgusting
Oy vey is mir.
bad burnett…
Hmmm. Can the Angels 3-4-5 match the Yankees 3-4-5? Please?
Jesus this is terrible.
Oh joy, looks like tonight is the fun combination of WOE and Bad AJ. Good thing I have to go teach…
Wow. This sucks. Gotta hold ‘em here.
See you in New York Saturday night.
Awful outfield alignment.
It happens whenever the skankees play a team for a long series: I end up despising their fans.
Fuck you, AJ.
Thanks A.J. Real awesome. Guess I can go reorganize my sock drawer now.
Ass.
Well, so much for momentum, winning this game, winning this series. What an unacceptable start.
so what inning does gaudin come in? taking bets now. i say 5th
So, what, 5-0 by the end of the inning with AJ outta the game already?
well, fu**
Is this batting practice?
What a fucking joke.
This one’s over fast.
Is that joba pitching?
2nd inning? 3rd inning?
Get CC up in the pen.
I wish I had a proctology appointment tonight. It would be more fun.
[58] He’ll be in next inning.
Well, good thing the Angels bats have woken up, since the Yanks’ are still asleep. I guess we’ll be seeing CC in game 7…
A.J. is throwing BP right now. Total veras.
geez, i never thought i’d feel hopeless by the BOTTOM OF THE FIRST
Burnett has nothing. Some truly terrible pitches so far.
If Girardi lets Molina bat in this game now, fuck him.
Time for Gaudin ans Posada
Surprised McCarver hasn’t told us about how AJ didn’t look right when he was warming up.
In all seriousness, how bad does AJ have to pitch in the first for it to be determined that this just might be one of those games where he doesn’t have it?
Win probability 0.
So glad that Molina’s catching to improve A.J.‘s pitching.
Seriously, Burnett has NOTHING. The Angels are killing the ball. I’m having 2002 flashbacks….
Seriously, Girardi needs to have Acevas in up NOW.
No outs. This is batting practice.
ouch.
CC >> AJ
Girardi, WTF, put in Acevas or Gaudin. NOW
Hey A.J., feel free to get some outs at some point.
Now we’re going to have to hear about 04 for the rest of the night, or week…
who mops up? aceves? gaudin?
What a douchebag. I could do better than this. Seriously.
So we can pretty much put to bed the whole Molina needs to catch AJ bullcrap now, right?
i think it will be gaudin.
NOT Aceves
God sometimes I freaking hate this team so much. Look forward to two days of 2004 talk guys, lots of fun that will be.
Oh, was that Laz Diaz at third blowing yet another call? Cool. Nice that he still has a job despite being incompetent.
Finally an out—on another hit that was clubbed.
These aren’t cheap hits, either. Fuck.
an out!
In play, out(s). Whew.
Hey, an out!
Not shocked at all. AJ was going to fuck up a game eventually.
We should all get to fuck his wife as payback for what he’s putting us through
It should be like 4-2 right now.
Well, if you’re going to have a goddawful inning, it might as well be the first.
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