The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Monday, July 9, 2007

Yankee Pitching at the All Star Break

I'm still mad about Saturday's game, but we must soldier on I guess. Anyway, the All Star Break is a good time to catch up on the team's performances to this point. I think I've been neglecting pitching this season because of how much "fun" it's been harping on the offense and defense, so today I'm going to look at the pitching staff so far. First, here are the Yankees pitchers sorted by most valuable to least valuable by runs saved above average. Read after the chart for explanations of all the columns.

Last RSAA G IP Hit HR BB K ERA RA FIP ERC ERA+
Wang 18 15 104.3 98 6 27 48 3.36 3.36 3.98 3.53 128
Bruney 8 39 35 28 2 25 27 2.57 2.57 4.69 3.70 168
Myers 7 41 31 27 3 12 13 2.61 2.61 5.04 3.57 165
Clemens 6 7 39.7 34 4 10 29 3.63 3.63 3.87 3.00 119
Rivera 3 32 34 33 3 5 32 3.71 3.71 3.15 3.09 116
Villone 3 14 19.3 14 1 6 9 3.26 3.26 3.78 2.28 132
Pettitte 2 20 112.3 127 8 34 62 4.25 4.73 4.00 4.40 102
Hughes 2 2 10.7 7 0 4 11 3.37 3.37 2.33 1.80 128
Britton 2 3 5 1 1 1 2 1.80 1.80 5.67 0.91 240
Proctor 1 45 47.7 40 4 24 34 3.59 4.34 4.38 3.52 120
Mussina 0 14 78 83 10 17 49 4.62 4.85 4.37 4.37 93
Ramirez 0 2 2.3 2 0 1 4 3.86 3.86 2.41 5.32 112
Rasner -1 6 24.7 29 4 8 11 4.01 5.11 5.70 5.12 108
Pavano -1 2 11.3 12 1 2 4 4.76 5.56 4.24 3.86 91
Henn -1 17 19.3 16 2 13 13 4.66 5.12 5.28 3.62 93
Farnsworth -1 37 34.3 38 3 16 23 4.46 4.98 4.46 4.20 97
Bean -2 3 3 5 0 5 2 12.00 12.00 6.93 8.16 36
Wright -3 2 8 10 5 6 6 7.88 7.88 12.14 9.85 55
Vizcaino -3 42 43 37 3 31 29 5.02 5.23 4.29 4.21 86
Desalvo -3 6 23 27 2 16 6 5.87 6.26 6.35 6.30 74
Clippard -4 6 27 29 6 17 18 6.33 6.33 6.60 5.81 68
Karstens -5 2 4.3 11 1 2 1 14.54 14.54 7.19 10.79 30
Igawa -13 9 46.7 52 11 23 33 7.14 7.33 6.59 5.84 60
Total 15 366.0 763.9 760 80 305 466 4.36 4.62 4.66 4.32 98


RSAA is runs saved above average, which I calculate by subracting the pitcher's runs allowed average from the league average runs allowed average, dividing by nine and then multiplying times innings pitched. Starters are compared to starters, relievers are compared to relievers, as relievers collectively have an RA of about .5 runs less than starters.

RA is just the equivalent of ERA, but includes unearned runs.

FIP is Tango Tiger's Fielding Independent Pitching, which is calculated using the formula 13 times HR plus 3 times BB + HBP - 2 times K divided by IP. 3.2 is added to that to give a # that should closely match ERA. The idea here is to regress a pitcher's batting average on balls in play to average by focusing on his peripherals. If you see a big difference between a pitcher's FIP and his ERA, you should expect them to move closer to each other if he continues to pitch the way he has to this point.

ERC is Component ERA. Kind of like FIP, it looks a player's components to see if their results match their actual performance. The one difference is it uses a pitcher's actual hit rate, so it does not penalize pitchers who do happen to have the ability to suppress hits on balls in play.

Last LD% GB% FB% BABIP HR+ BB+ K+ BF AB AVG OBP SLG
Wang 18.0% 58.7% 23.2% .277 181 133 69 418 383 .256 .311 .366
Bruney 17.5% 29.9% 52.9% .268 200 53 105 154 122 .230 .364 .328
Myers 15.7% 61.8% 22.1% .238 113 93 60 131 114 .237 .313 .368
Clemens 20.7% 50.0% 29.2% .261 103 135 110 158 147 .231 .278 .347
Rivera 16.3% 53.1% 30.6% .309 120 238 138 139 130 .254 .288 .346
Villone 16.4% 36.1% 47.7% .217 203 111 69 78 69 .203 .282 .261
Pettitte 18.4% 49.3% 32.3% .321 155 120 78 476 434 .293 .340 .417
Hughes 15.4% 57.7% 26.9% .269 inf 88 161 41 37 .189 .268 .216
Britton 14.3% 28.6% 57.1% .000 44 146 71 17 16 .063 .118 .250
Proctor 16.0% 28.5% 56.0% .252 134 74 99 207 174 .230 .319 .356
Mussina 20.6% 39.9% 39.5% .295 85 164 90 326 298 .279 .316 .446
Ramirez 0.0% 66.7% 25.0% .500 inf 86 240 10 7 .286 .400 .429
Rasner 20.0% 40.0% 40.0% .291 72 119 59 111 100 .290 .351 .470
Pavano 17.9% 46.2% 34.9% .282 119 197 52 46 44 .273 .304 .409
Henn 13.6% 42.4% 44.1% .237 114 58 89 88 73 .219 .341 .343
Farnsworth 19.0% 33.6% 48.0% .310 135 83 88 156 138 .275 .353 .384
Bean 8.3% 58.3% 33.3% .417 inf 33 63 19 14 .357 .526 .500
Wright 14.3% 25.0% 58.7% .217 21 57 90 40 34 .294 .400 .794
Vizcaino 20.8% 35.4% 43.4% .259 169 54 89 195 159 .233 .354 .384
Desalvo 17.6% 37.6% 44.6% .294 145 60 32 112 91 .297 .411 .495
Clippard 6.7% 39.3% 54.3% .277 54 62 87 124 107 .271 .371 .505
Karstens 35.0% 25.0% 41.7% .454 68 111 23 26 23 .478 .500 .696
Igawa 18.7% 31.0% 50.5% .283 51 80 92 215 189 .275 .363 .519
Total 17.9% 43.6% 38.5% .288 127 110 85 3287 2903 .269 .334 .417


LD%, GB%, and FB% are the percentage of balls in play that a pitcher allows that end up as line drives, ground balls, or fly balls, respectively.

BABIP is batting average on balls in play. This looks at all balls in a play that a pitcher gives up and what ratio they become hits. The formula used is (H - HR) / (AB - HR - SO + SF). The AL average this season is .300 on the nose. In theory, most pitchers should be close to that number, so most anyone who's above or below it has a probability of regressing towards it.

HR+, BB+, and K+ are my own numbers. These are similar to Baseball Reference's ERA+, in that they calculate a pitcher's HR allowed rate, walk allowed rate, and strikeout rate per batters faced as a ratio compared to league average. < 100 is below average, >100 is above average for all three. So if you look at Chien-Ming Wang, you see he prevents HRs at a rate 81% better than the average pitcher, walks 33% fewer, and strikes out 31% fewer. You have to love Chase Wright's 21 HR+.

BF is batters faced. AB is at bats by opposing hitters, and AVG, OBP, and SLG are what opposing hitters are hitting against the pitcher in question.

So what do all these numbers really mean?

First of all, Chien-Ming Wang rocks. He's been a win better than any Yankee pitcher despite missing a month. Yeah, he doesn't strike out a lot of people, but last year his K+ was 51, so he's improved significantly in that area this year. He's a master at keeping the ball in the park, and he pitches with good control. That has worked for Wang for 439 innings at the major league level now.

Brian Bruney's had a decent year as far as preventing runs, but his control is awful and he appears to have fallen out of favor in the bullpen pecking order. Bruney was released by Arizona for a reason, but he's still young enough to put it together. I wouldn't trust him over most of the rest of the pen right now though.

Mike Myers' has had what looks like a good year superficially, but he has failed at his job, which is to get out lefty hitters. Lefties are hitting .327/.410/.462, following up a line of .257/.297/.443 last year. Expect more of the same going forward. From what I can see, he's lost what little velocity he had and his slider is not as tough to hit as it used to be.

It's both a credit to Roger Clemens and an indictment of the rest of the team that he's been their fourth most valuable pitcher despite only starting six games. He's not throwing as hard as he used to, but he's succeeding. His K rate is still better than league average, and he's combining that with above average control and a good HR rate. He can probably pitch until he's 50.

Mariano Rivera's ERA is way out of line from what we are used to seeing, but he's been good recently. Over his last 24 games, he's pitched 27.1 innings and fanned 24 with a more Mo-like 1.65 ERA. He still doesn't look like MO to me, but he should be good going forward. His FIP and his component ERA both point to that as well. Interestingly, Rivera's already given up as many earned runs this year as he gave up in five full seasons in the past.

Everyone wants to dump Ron Villone, but he's been good at his role, pitching good baseball in low leverage spots. I don't see a pressing need to get rid of him. I'd probably lose Myers before Villone.

Andy Pettitte has been brutal his last few starts, but you could argue that it should have been seen coming. He had a 2.51 ERA after his first 11 starts, but 23 BB and just 38 strikeouts, and having allowed 70 hits in 71 innings. Since then, he's got a putrid 7.30 ERA. For the first half overall, he's been a hair above average, and he's eaten innings for the team and helped rest the pen for the majority of his starts. He's right around where he was projected to be overall, even though he took a circuitous rout to get there. Let's hope he's just in a rut and not hurting.

Phil Hughes pitched twice. We hope to see him back by the end of the month. He makes his first rehab start today I think.

Chris Britton has done nothing in the majors or Scranton to warrant still being in Scranton.

Scott Proctor's been up and down. It looks like he's made an adjustment recently, using his slow curve to freeze hitters looking for his fastball, and so far it's working. As a durable reliever who can give the team average or better innings, he's a useful piece.

Mike Mussina started out crappy. He still doesn't look great stuff wise, but he's been getting results. Over his last six starts he's got a 2.87 ERA, over his last eight it's 3.49. Take out his first start of the year and he's got an ERA of 4.14. I was hoping for a repeat of 2006, but it looks more that we will see the 2004-2005 version of Moose, who is useful if not great. Moose's FIP and ERC seem to agree that he'll be ok going forward, but not great.

Edwar Ramirez is the last of the Yankee pitchers who has not been below average. He should get a few chances to show if he can handle the majors yet. He's a great story so I'll be pulling for him.

I won't go through everyone else on the list, but I'll touch on a few of 'em.

Pavano. Heh.

I have nothing good to say about Kyle Farnsworth. I'd love to see the Yankees dump him somewhere, for anything they could get.

Luis Vizcaino has been the best part of the Randy Johnson trade, which tells you how well that whole thing worked out. In his defense, he's pitched better of late although he's still got mediocre peripherals. Did you know Vizcaino already has 11 IBB this year? That really skews his numbers.

Kei Igawa. I expected a 5.00 ERA with hopes of a 4.00, and instead I've gotten a 7.14 ERA with hopes that he doesn't pitch any more. Igawa's K rate is passable, but his control has been poor, and his HR rate is off the charts bad. The league is hitting .275/.363/.519 against him. Eeesh.

Overall, the Yankee pitching staff has actually been a touch above average (15 RSAA overall). That's because even with a slightly below average ERA, they have allowed fewer unearned runs than average so fewer overall. Their team RA is 4.66 compared to the AL average of 4.80. That's the fairly good news. The bad news is that as a team they have the worst K rate in the league, with a K+ of 85.

I'll look at either the offense or defense tomorrow.

Update: A couple of links some of you may have interest in. Over at the Hardball Times, Chris Jaffe looks at a simulation of the 28 worst teams of all time. I helped Chris run these. No, the 2007 Yankees are not on the list, yet.

Also, Top Prospect Alert has posted their Top 100 prospects at midseason. Hughes is still considered a prospect, and they have him as #2 behind Justin Upton. Six Yankees make the grade, although one name is a bit surprising.

--Posted at 8:34 am by SG / 27 Comments | - (1111)

Comments

Page 1 of 1 pages:

although one name is a bit surprising

DeSalvo?

In the NY Post today, Torre intimated that the Yankees would be one pitcher short post AS break.  So, which one goes?  My bet right now is on Bruney.  Vizcaino, Rivera, Proctor, and Farnsworth aren’t going anywhere.  Torre likes both Myers and Villone.  And Ramirez seems to have caught Torre’s favor (and deservedly so).  So unless a trade occurs in the next couple of days, I think Bruney is going to be sent to Scranton to, “work on his control”.

I know it must sound a bit like fogeyism…i.e., back when I was a teenager Yankee Stadium was much cooler, but it’s not. Something defintely changed after 1996.

whoops, I had a post get eaten or something. I was just talking about how much louder Yankee Stadium was in the 1995 division series than it ever has been since.

“DeSalvo? “

yeah.  huh?

Perhaps the Yanks will send Igawa down to Scranton to work on everything.  Substituting Hughes for him will go a long way toward helping the Yanks run off a decent sized winning streak - although in order for that to happen, the team will also need more consistent contributions from Abreu and Damon.  What makes the Igawa signing all the more befuddling is all the pitching depth the Yanks have in the high minors, although I’m sure Cashman would say, and rightly so, that a team can never have too much pitching.  The best scenario at this point would be to trade him to an NL team, which shouldn’t be that hard given his modest salary.  After all, Alan Horne, Joba, Kennedy and Jeff Marquez will be better options by next year - not to mention Clippard and Ohlendorf.

The best scenario at this point would be to trade him to an NL team, which shouldn’t be that hard given his modest salary

They perhaps needs to get his numbers to look decent or try and send him somewhere where a pitching coach feels like they can fix him.

Of course, they could try to fix him themselves, but that obviously isn’t happening.

whoops, I had a post get eaten or something. I was just talking about how much louder Yankee Stadium was in the 1995 division series than it ever has been since.

I don’t know.  The Stadium was actually shaking during the 2001 series of Game 4 and 5.  And Game 7 in ‘03 was just as loud.

What makes the Igawa signing all the more befuddling is all the pitching depth the Yanks have in the high minors, although I’m sure Cashman would say, and rightly so, that a team can never have too much pitching.

i am not trying to justify the Igawa signing, but it’s easy to say this NOW.  Kennedy and Chamberlain were very realistically 2+ years away at the time of Igawa’s posting.  to their credit, they have placed themselves on the fast track, but back in November they had not even played winter ball yet.  Guys like Jackson and Ohlendorf were not in the system yet.  i’m not sure what the timetable on Clippard was, but he is obviously not ready.  DeSalvo was coming off a terrible year, etc.

Igawa seems superfluous now b/c the Yankee farm system has had a great 2007.  this is a nice “problem” to have.

my point is this: Igawa was obviously not the right guy, but i understand why the Yankees felt they might need another starter.

also, the Yankees had no idea they would be able to sign Pettitte when Igawa was posted.

i would guess that at that point, it was > 75% likely he would return to Houston.

“DeSalvo? “

yeah.  huh?

Quick, re-print that list everywhere, then trade him.

Re Igawa:

I agree with everything yup said.  I’d also like to add that I think it may have been partly Cashman responding to the Yankees losing out on Matsuzaka.  That is, they wanted to show they were serious about signing a pitcher from Japan, and Igawa seemed like the best one (he may have been the only other starter available as well, I’m not sure about that).

Also, it is too soon to give up on Igawa.  I’m not saying I want/expect him to be a major player going forward this year, but there is still some hope for him over the course of the contract.

I don’t know.  The Stadium was actually shaking during the 2001 series of Game 4 and 5.  And Game 7 in ‘03 was just as loud.

It’s one thing to talk about loudness during a huge moment like a big homerun, but those 1995 crowds were just nuts from beginning to end. There’s too many rich people at the stadium these days. Not as many lunatics. On mlb.com you can watch the clip of Mattingly’s homerun. I love to see the cascade of celebratory beer and garbage that rains down from the upperdeck in the aftermath. Those must have been some wild nights.

The Pacific Rim scout who recommended Igawa should be fired. I can’t see any justification for signing him for the money they paid (posting fee + contract) because it was done with the idea that he would contribute this season from April on. Obviously, that has been a total failure. If they thought he can help down the road after an extensive minor league assignment, that would be one thing, but then he would have been worth a lot less money.

I don’t think that the signing is justifiable based on underbidding on Matsuzaka. If that was Cashman’s thought process, I would be really disappointed that he would be so myopically reactive.

As I have said, if Bruney has option years remaining, I would send him down to work with Gil Patterson on his command (i.e., learning to consistently repeat his mechanics). If not, based on the way Torre’s Yankees do things, I would be surprised if Ramirez isn’t demoted. I hope I’m wrong.

Perhaps there are too many rich people at the stadium these days, but at least the crowd is slightly more civilized.  After all, who would want to take their girlfriend/wife to a Yankee game back when the stadium was filled with scurrilous, drunken cads.  Obviously, there is probably a bit too much politeness now and most likely even more tolerance for the mistaken ilk that are Red Sox fans, but I’m not going to have a fit because the stadium is more decent place these days.  I would, however, like to see “God Bless America” put to bed finally.

“I love to see the cascade of celebratory beer and garbage that rains down from the upperdeck in the aftermath. Those must have been some wild nights.”

A beer at the stadium costs you what, $8 now?  $10?  I’m pretty well off and if I’m paying those prices (I won’t), I’m not throwing it anywhere but down my throat.

The Pacific Rim scout who recommended Igawa should be fired.

i think i read somewhere that he was.  but i have no source for that.

the annoying thing is that they scouted Igawa for 3 years.  i don’t think it was really a “kneejerk reaction” type thing at all.

If not, based on the way Torre’s Yankees do things, I would be surprised if Ramirez isn’t demoted. I hope I’m wrong.

one thing we can’t lose sight of is that Edwar has pitched as many innings as Proctor this year, just not in the majors.  if he were to become a torre “favorite” and ridden like Proctor, we may never see him again. i think they actually have to limit his usage a little no matter how good he is.

Edwar Ramirez is not some sort of A prospect that needs to be used carefully nor is he a tender-aged youngster.  If he’s effective, Torre can Villone him all he wants as far as I’m concerned.  Speaking of the bullpen, one reason (among many) to deal Farnsworth would be so that Chris Britton, who may very well be a better pitcher right now, can be promoted.

Obviously, there is probably a bit too much politeness now and most likely even more tolerance for the mistaken ilk that are Red Sox fans, but I’m not going to have a fit because the stadium is more decent place these days.

That’s true.  And at least people aren’t throwing pizza’s at each other or anything.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztPQieRucKE

God bless the superior Yankees fan.

There’s actually a dude named Evan Longoria? Did he marry Antoinette Parker of the San Antonio Storm this weekend?

Hey SG, remember those simulation ideas we were discussing a while back?  High-variance vs low-variance teams?

rilkefan, yep, I’ve already run them, but I haven’t sat down to look at the data yet.  That’s something good to tackle over the next couple of days I think.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztPQieRucKE

God bless the superior Yankees fan.

If you’ve ever actually been to Yankee Stadium you would know that the bleacher creature fans always sing that song during the 6th inning YMCA song performed by the grounds crew.  When they target someone in the stands its usually because they are wearing Sox gear or apparel of the opposing team that day.  Its done in a kidding manner.

I’d rather have that happen to me in good fun then get food thrown at me.  (or get swiped at and have beer poured on me while trying to field a ball.) smirk

When they target someone in the stands its usually because they are wearing Sox gear or apparel of the opposing team that day.  Its done in a kidding manner.

maybe.  but that clip was still pretty embarrassing.

Yes, that clip is saddening.  Humans are an ‘interesting’ bunch.  The most uplifting kindnesses and the most sickening atrocities are all perpetrated by us humans.  How to get more of the first and less of the second, I wish I knew.

It is partly to escape the realities of life that I follow baseball.  It is a nice escape for me.  I wish that clip were not shared, or, at least that I had not seen it. 

Let’s talk about Hughes instead.  Pete Abraham has a nice update on his site.  Let’s go Yankees!

Weekly Journalist, you are so spot-on re. the ‘95 Division Series.  I wasn’t at the Mr. November game in ‘01, though I was at Game 7 of the ‘03 LCS and it was NOTHING compared to the atmosphere in ‘95.  I swear the stadium shook when Mattingly homered.  The Leyritz walkoff is probably the most exhilirating thing I’ve experienced at the ballpark.  Not to say we’re fat and spoiled now, but there was a level of gratitude to be back in the postseason after 14 years, which made the noise and excitement what it was.

Is it too corporate now?  I don’t know.  I sit in the upper deck and haven’t found it so.  I don’t think fan enthusiasm has to be equated with rowdiness and anti-social behavior.  For that, go back 20-25 years, when an overall seediness permeated the place (as it did all of New York City).  I kid you not—I saw lines of coke snorted in the upper deck in 1982 or ‘83.

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