Tuesday, July 10, 2007
Yankee Offense at the All Star Break
I'm going to use the All Star Break to explain a little bit about the way I rank players' offensive values. As most regular readers know, I'm a big fan of linear weights.The concept for linear weights was introducted by Pete Palmer in his ground-breaking book, The Hidden Game of Baseball. In a nutshell, linear weights assigns a marginal value to just about every event that can happen on the baseball field, both good and bad. You can incorporate batting, baserunning, defense, etc., to really look at the overall contribution that a player is providing to his team.
Instead of getting too heavy into the mechanism of LWTS, I'd just point anyone that is interested in the guts behind it to this link. Today I'm just going to focus on the offensive portion of the Yankees' linear weights.
The formula I use was refined by Tango Tiger and uses the following weights:
Batting Runs(BR) = (.47 x H) + (.38 x 2B) + (.55 x 3B) + (.93 x HR) + (.33 x (BB + HBP)) + .22 x SB + (-.38 x CS) + (-.1 x (AB - H))
The one change I make is I add GDP into the outs factor (AB - H). You could also add reaching on errors although I tend to ignore that out of simplicity.
Anyway, unless a player is really bad, they will have a positive value for BR, because any positive contribution creates some kind of run value. The only Yankee with a negative BR is Wil Nieves, and he's only at -1.
Once you have a players BR, you can do a couple of things. The first thing is to compare them to the average batter, regardless of position. This is useful for just figuring out the net value of a player, and for when you want to look at moving players around the different positions, as well as for direct comparisons.
The other thing that you can do, is position-adjust the players. As should be fairly obvious to most baseball fans, the average shortstop does not hit as well as the average first baseman (unless it's the Yankees), so offense from the shortstop position is harder to find, and therefore more valuable. So what I do is calculate the BR at every defensive position. I then divide BR by plate appearances, and I subtract the average BR/PA from a player's BR/PA, and then multiply by the number of plate appearances that the player has had. This tells you how much better a player has been compared to an average player over the same playing time.
Let's run through an example with Derek Jeter. Jeter's raw BR this season so far is 60. Divided by his plate appearances, he creates .152 BR/PA. The average AL SS has created 596 BR this eason, over 5194 PA, a BR/PA of .115. So Jeter's position-adjusted batting runs above average would be (.152-.115) x his PA, which comes out to about 15 runs above the average AL SS this year. That makes him the third most valuable offensive Yankee this season, behind Alex Rodriguez (the most valuable offensive player in the league regardless of position by linear weights), and Jorge Posada.
So, here are the Yankees' offensive players sorted by most valuable in position-adjusted batting runs.
| Last | pBRaa | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | K | BA | OBP | SLG |
| Rodriguez | 33 | 85 | 380 | 319 | 79 | 101 | 21 | 0 | 30 | 86 | 47 | 71 | .317 | .413 | .665 |
| Posada | 19 | 82 | 331 | 291 | 46 | 95 | 25 | 0 | 9 | 48 | 34 | 61 | .327 | .399 | .505 |
| Jeter | 15 | 85 | 395 | 348 | 57 | 117 | 23 | 3 | 5 | 44 | 35 | 47 | .336 | .408 | .463 |
| Matsui | 8 | 73 | 316 | 274 | 46 | 75 | 19 | 0 | 11 | 53 | 36 | 38 | .274 | .358 | .464 |
| Giambi | 1 | 45 | 179 | 149 | 19 | 39 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 23 | 25 | 35 | .262 | .380 | .436 |
| Phillips | 0 | 15 | 43 | 38 | 6 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 6 | .316 | .381 | .474 |
| Basak | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Thompson | -1 | 11 | 17 | 15 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | .200 | .294 | .333 |
| Cano | -2 | 85 | 350 | 328 | 40 | 90 | 24 | 4 | 6 | 40 | 15 | 52 | .274 | .314 | .427 |
| Phelps | -3 | 36 | 88 | 80 | 8 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 6 | 19 | .263 | .330 | .363 |
| Damon | -4 | 76 | 313 | 273 | 44 | 67 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 38 | 42 | .245 | .339 | .344 |
| Cabrera | -5 | 76 | 299 | 265 | 31 | 73 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 22 | 33 | .276 | .331 | .385 |
| Cairo | -5 | 44 | 111 | 99 | 9 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 16 | .263 | .308 | .323 |
| Mientkiewicz | -6 | 50 | 141 | 124 | 17 | 28 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 10 | 16 | .226 | .292 | .379 |
| Abreu | -6 | 85 | 375 | 322 | 59 | 85 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 41 | 44 | 65 | .264 | .352 | .373 |
| Nieves | -7 | 22 | 53 | 50 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 5 | .120 | .154 | .120 |
pBRaa = position-adjusted batting runs above average
Some more numbers that you may or may not find interesting:
| Last | HBP | GDP | SB | CS | P/PA | BA/BIP | LD% | GB% | HR/F | BA/RISP | BR | BRaa | pBR/150 |
| Rodriguez | 9 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 3.8 | .333 | 18.2% | 41.5% | 29.4% | .303 | 81 | 33 | 57 |
| Posada | 3 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 3.8 | .395 | 22.7% | 42.1% | 11.0% | .274 | 55 | 14 | 37 |
| Jeter | 8 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 3.6 | .380 | 20.8% | 55.7% | 7.1% | .427 | 60 | 10 | 24 |
| Matsui | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 4.1 | .290 | 15.8% | 48.3% | 12.8% | .268 | 45 | 6 | 17 |
| Giambi | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4.4 | .302 | 19.1% | 28.7% | 11.7% | .318 | 26 | 3 | 5 |
| Phillips | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3.7 | .355 | 21.9% | 43.8% | 9.1% | .500 | 6 | 1 | 5 |
| Basak | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | N/A | 0 | 0 | -147 |
| Thompson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.2 | .375 | 25.0% | 12.5% | 0.0% | .500 | 2 | -1 | -26 |
| Cano | 5 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3.3 | .313 | 15.2% | 53.3% | 6.9% | .214 | 41 | -3 | -4 |
| Phelps | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3.9 | .322 | 21.3% | 36.1% | 7.7% | .280 | 9 | -2 | -24 |
| Damon | 1 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 4.4 | .276 | 17.3% | 51.9% | 7.0% | .238 | 36 | -3 | -8 |
| Cabrera | 2 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 3.7 | .308 | 19.7% | 55.7% | 7.1% | .234 | 33 | -4 | -10 |
| Cairo | 1 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 3.7 | .317 | 13.6% | 42.0% | 0.0% | .303 | 11 | -3 | -29 |
| Mientkiewicz | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3.7 | .233 | 23.9% | 36.7% | 9.3% | .200 | 14 | -4 | -28 |
| Abreu | 3 | 10 | 12 | 4 | 4.2 | .325 | 21.5% | 45.4% | 5.8% | .239 | 45 | -2 | -11 |
| Nieves | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3.4 | .133 | 13.3% | 53.3% | 0.0% | .214 | -1 | -8 | -83 |
BR is the raw batting run total as I mentioned before, BRaa is batting runs above the average player without any position-adjustments, and pBR/150 is position-adjusted batting runs per 150 games. That really hammers home how bad Wil Nieves has been to this point. A full season of Wil Nievers would be eight wins worse than average. EIGHT WINS! That means that as as good as Alex Rodriguez has been to this point, he still wouldn't neutralize how bad Wil Nieves would be as a full-time starter. A-Rod plus Nieves would end up as 26 runs below average. Pray for Jorge's continued health.
LD% and GB% are just some batted ball numbers. Line drives are the most likely type of balls to be hits, so the higher the LD%, the better the hitter typically. BABIP is the player's batting average on balls in play, calculated the same way as it is calculated for pitchers. Hitters do exhibit repeatable skill here to a certain extent, but an excessively high BABIP typically will correct itself at least partially.
So what do these numbers mean?
As I mentioned earlier, Alex Rodriguez has been the most valuable player in the league. He's already been as valuable offensively as he was all of last year, and there are still 77 games to go. An amazing season for an amazing player who is finally getting the respect he deserves by the mouth-breathing contingent of Yankee fandom.
Jorge Posada is also having his strongest season in years. He's never hit higher than .287 but is on pace to beat that. I am worried about his workload and his luck on balls in play catching up to him in the second half, but there are plenty of people underperforming who should pick up some of the slack.
Derek Jeter continues to shine offensively. Only Carlos Guillen has been more productive as a SS in the AL.
Posada and Jeter have a very high BABIP, although in Jeter's case his speed likely helps. Posada is a very probable candidate to fall off in the second half, at least a little.
Hideki Matsui's recent hot streak has pushed him from slightly above average to +8. Unless Jason Giambi comes back, Matsui is probably the second best power threat in the Yankee lineup, so they need him to continue his surge badly.
Jason Giambi was underperforming expectations, but despite the media's claims about him being out helping the Yankees be more flexible, if he can come back he makes the team better.
Andy Phillips is making the most of his second chance in pinstripes. Whether it's just the fact that he has 43 plate appearances, or if it's the result of adjustments he's made due to his struggles last year, he's filled what's been a giant hole of suck so far this year. I'm not willing to bet that it's going to last, we have a much larger sample size that shows he was overmatched in the bigs, but at the very least he's an upgrade on Miguel Cairo.
Chris Basak and Kevin Thompson haven't played much. Thompson seems like an ideal fourth OF, so if Melky becomes entrenched in center he may end up getting some more playing time going forward.
Robinson Cano's been a big disappointment offensively. Some falloff from .342 was certainly expected, but not this much of one. He's walking a touch more this season, but he's also striking out a lot more. Until he gets a better approach at the plate, expect him to be consistently inconsistent.
Josh Phelps is gone. He didn't get a fair chance to play regularly, so it's tough to know if he wasn't very good or if the erratic playing time hurt him.
Johnny Damon has stunk while batting leadoff, so he gets more chances to stink than anyone else on the team when he's in the lineup. It doesn't look like him going on the DL is a consideration at this point. If he can play some LF going forward he can rest Matsui and perhaps contribute defensively, but the contract he signed last season is starting to look like a disaster.
Melky's seasonal output has been disappointing, but he's been hitting well since May 1. Ignore the bleating that his early struggles were due to not getting regular playing time in April, he played in 21 of 24 games that month.
Miguel Cairo has been brutal offensively, which isn't a surprise. The problem is he's played far more than he should be, primarily at a position where his lack of offense is even more glaring. Add in the fact that his calling card of good defense no longer even seems to be a factor, and he's hurting the team on both sides of the ball. I personally like Miggy for some reason that I really can't understand, but the less he plays going forward the better. I don't know that Basak would be a better option than him as the backup infielder, but it may be worth considering.
Doug Mientkiewicz has hit like garbage. His supposedly great defense at first wasn't reflected in zone rating to this point, although ZR doesn't capture all the elements of first base defense . I wish him a healthy recovery from his multitude of injuries, but I'd prefer he doesn't get back before November. I'd really prefer to see Phillips get first base for the rest of the season just to see once and for all what he's got.
Bobby Abreu has been the biggest problem on the team relative to his expectations. Unless he hits going forward, the Yankees aren't going anywhere. Meanwhile, Gary Sheffield has been tearing it up in Detroit. Brian Cashman made the right move on paper, but it didn't play out on the field. Sheffield's +18 pBRaa, so he's been 24 runs better than Abreu offensively, but he's primarily DHing now.
Wil Nieves has pulled off the amazing feat of being the least valuable offensive player on the team despite only getting 53 plate appearances. He seems like a nice guy, but the sooner the Yankees can replace him with anyone they'll be better. In praise of Nieves, he's hitting much better with runners in scoring position at a lofty .214.
Overall as a team the Yankees are +38 pBRaa. Take out Alex Rodriguez, and they're just +5. Unless Cano, Abreu and Damon play better going forward, they're not going anywhere.
Comments
Do we know what an “average” HR/F rate for Jeter is? That is, what is range is that number typically in for him? His rate this year seems low, so I’m wondering if we could see some kind of correction there, which would make his season go from very good to great; or at least great offensively.
Here’s what i have for Jeter’s HR/F since 2003 (no data before that):
2003: 11.0%
2004: 12.7%
2005: 16.8%
2006: 14.7%
Whether this is something that would correct, or is the result of a conscious effort to sacrifice power/fly balls for average, I have no idea.
Continuing a discussion of the Stadium from the last thread…
Weekly Journalist, you are so spot-on re. the ‘95 Division Series. I wasn’t at the Mr. November game in ‘01, though I was at Game 7 of the ‘03 LCS and it was NOTHING compared to the atmosphere in ‘95. I swear the stadium shook when Mattingly homered. The Leyritz walkoff is probably the most exhilirating thing I’ve experienced at the ballpark. Not to say we’re fat and spoiled now, but there was a level of gratitude to be back in the postseason after 14 years, which made the noise and excitement what it was.
Is it too corporate now? I don’t know. I sit in the upper deck and haven’t found it so. I don’t think fan enthusiasm has to be equated with rowdiness and anti-social behavior. For that, go back 20-25 years, when an overall seediness permeated the place (as it did all of New York City). I kid you not—I saw lines of coke snorted in the upper deck in 1982 or ‘83.
That was my feeling about that ‘95 Division Series….that the crowd back then still retained some of the rowdiness/lawlessness of the late 70s/early 80s playoff crowds. I’m not sure the Stadium isn’t better off now, but I wish we could keep the energy and the noise while maintaining the general feeling of safety and security at the stadium now.
But, a big part of it, of course, is hunger. But that’s not the only factor. I think during Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS the crowd was genuinely nervous, plus the Sox were winning most of the game. It sure got freaking loud in the Bottom of the 8th: in fact, that might be the single loudest i’ve ever heard the stadium…possibly.
Like I said, the Stadium has no problem getting loud for a big moment. When David Justice hit that three run homer off Arthur Rhodes in the 2000 ALCS I thouhght the upper deck was going to collapse. But the wild west, Bronx zoo atmosphere and energy of those 1995 crowds are a thing of the past, for better of for worse. David Cone called the crowd during Game 1 of the 1995 ALDS the most amazing crowd he’s ever seen. I think it was that, in more ways than one: amazingly loud, amazingly energetic, amazingly rowdy, probably a bit amazingly frightening for some folks in the bleachers and upper deck. Don’t forget, they were still serving suds in the Bleachers back then….now THAT is scary.
I think Phillips has made some adjustments. In the game where he had three singles, he hit at least two off of curveballs.
Cano is at a 99 OPS+. A hot second half and he could end up with a good season.
Ah well…at least we don’t have JD Drew.
Cano is at a 99 OPS+. A hot second half and he could end up with a good season.
Last year of course, he had an awesome second half - 1.015 OPS. The year before his OPS in the second half was .781 - though that was only a slight improvement over the .773 he had in the first half. Even if he only duplicates the .781 for the second half, he’ll still be a plus player; above average offensively and defensively, for a minimum cost.
Thanks for the numbers on Jeter SG. I seem to remember a number of balls that *just* missed going out for Jeter, and based on his previous HR/F rates, I would think that he is running into some bad luck. I’d have to imagine for the second half he would be more in line with 13%-14%; unless of course there is some injury that is robbing him of power.
It’s too early to say whether Phillips has made adjustments but I’m certainly much happier to see him manning 1B than Miguel Cairo. In any event, the three players whose success or failure will determine the outcome of this season, to my mind, are Damon, Abreu and Hughes. If all three perform well, the Yankees could very well win 93-94 games. That’s certainly a big if, though.
In any event, the three players whose success or failure will determine the outcome of this season, to my mind, are Damon, Abreu and Hughes.
I would put Cano in there as a footnote. His failure in the second half may not have much of an impact on the team’s outcome but I certainly think that if he gets hot, his success could greatly boost the effectiveness of the lineup overall. The lineup would be a lot deeper if he can do what he did last season in the second half.
It’s too early to say whether Phillips has made adjustments but I’m certainly much happier to see him manning 1B than Miguel Cairo.
Adjustment, wow! No adjustment, still better than Cairo. Win win. Yet Cairo saw so many innings, yuck.
Mike K- My thought on Jeter’s power being down is that he has come up short on three or four balls that have hit off the wall this year. I don’t know if that is due to not getting enough of the ball or perhaps due to hitting offspeed pitches in those cases and having to supply most of the juice. Most noticeably this year is that he isn’t hitting to right or right center with power. I think he hit the wall against the Twins last week in right center, but he has been very capable in other years of reaching the bleachers out there. I have been wondering too if its due to him having too much trouble with hard throwers. It seems like he’s very often late and fouls many hittable pitches back to the screen. This season it seems he is looking inside more than in past seasons for pitches which would make power hitting outside pitches harder to do. He still hits an inordinate number of balls on the ground. He gets his share of hits one way or the other but he isn’t crushing the ball as well as he did at times in 2004 for example.
On another matter, am I alone in thinking that Torre might have had Melky lay down a bunt in the last inning Saturday. Afterall he had struck out four times earlier in the game and it seemed like it might be a higher percentage play and one that would pressure the defense. I say this because the earlier K’s could have affected his confidence in getting the ball on the ground. Damon really was the one who should have gotten this done, but he seemed way to eager simply to take a BB. Just my opinion.
Cashman’s worst non-pitching decisions were Nieves and Mientkiewicz. By using only a portion of the money that was wasted on Igawa, he could have found much better solutions.
Cashman’s worst non-pitching decisions were Nieves and Mientkiewicz. By using only a portion of the money that was wasted on Igawa, he could have found much better solutions.
Really? I seem to remember a lot of discussion about this in the off-season, but don’t remember any viable candidates. I really don’t think money was a concern, it was lack of players. Or put another way, lack of players that wouldn’t cost Phil Hughes to get.
Really? I seem to remember a lot of discussion about this in the off-season, but don’t remember any viable candidates. I really don’t think money was a concern, it was lack of players. Or put another way, lack of players that wouldn’t cost Phil Hughes to get.
They could given Gregg Zaun an offer he couldn’t refuse.
I would have rather stuck with Andy Phillips than sign Mientkiewicz.
There is no way that filling those positions would have cost Hughes. You can’t be arguing that.
If Rod Barajas had not re-neged on his contract with the Blue Jays, Gregg Zaun would have signed with New York. However, Toronto was his first choice and when Barajas sought work elsewhere, he stayed put. I’m not sure Cashman could have altered that scenario. On the other hand, Torre could have decided to keep Todd Pratt instead of Wil Nieves. As for Phillips, I too would have preferred to stick with him rather than signing Mientkiewicz. That way, they could have kept Phelps as a power righty bat off the bench and occasional DH. On the other hand, perhaps Doug M. was signed above all in the hope that he would give A-Rod some good vibes. In that sense, I suppose the signing paid dividends. To be fair, though, one cannot blast Cashman without acknowledging how quickly he has re-stocked the farm system. That is, the Yanks have five to six (i.e. Joba, Kennedy, Clippard, Jeff Marquez, Alan Horne and Ross Ohlendorf) real live pitching prospects in the high minors - at least one of whom (Joba) has the potential to be a no. 1 or no. 2 starter. That sort of depth is going to help this club down the road.
My point is simply that if you are willing to throw $46 million down the rat hole for Igawa, a more prudent use of only a fraction of that money would have been to overpay for Zaun or Barajas. There had to be an offer that Cash could have made that would have caused one of them to assent to joining the Yankees.
What I blame Cashman most for is saving Torre’s job after last year’s ALDS loss to Detroit. If he is going to retain Torre after this season, or choose Mattingly over Girardi as Torre’s successor, my preference is for Cashman to be terminated.
Granted, he has restocked the farm, at least with RH pitching prospects, but that alone is an insufficient basis for him to retain his job, imo.
If Cashman was replaced, I would hope that the Yankees would ensure that the next GM retains Oppenheimer to continue to supervise the amateur draft.
It should be noted, however, that Joel Sherman has reported that the Yankees could have had Micah Owings in the RJ deal if Cashman would have accepted a smaller overall package.
It should be noted, however, that Joel Sherman has reported that the Yankees could have had Micah Owings in the RJ deal if Cashman would have accepted a smaller overall package.
the Yankees hired a scout out of the Diamondbacks organization. it is reasonable to assume that Cashman relied heavily on this person’s intimate familiarity with the D-Backs system before agreeing on players.
Granted, he has restocked the farm, at least with RH pitching prospects, but that alone is an insufficient basis for him to retain his job, imo.
you’re right, it isn’t. but 9 straight division titles, 5 pennants, and 3 WS rings should be enough to earn him a down year.
do you think Cashman is to blame for losing the WS in 2001? how about in 2003? how about the 2004 ALCS?
Cashman’s resume looks pretty unreal if Mariano throws to 2B, maybe if Torre doesn’t go to Weaver or Boone hits a sac fly, and Clark’s double doesn’t bounce over the fence.
the Yankees hired a scout out of the Diamondbacks organization. it is reasonable to assume that Cashman relied heavily on this person’s intimate familiarity with the D-Backs system before agreeing on players.
I know, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that he (Kendall Carter) properly evaluated Arizona’s prospects. Either way, Cashman is accountable for the judgment of the people he hires.
There is no way that filling those positions would have cost Hughes. You can’t be arguing that.
Backup catcher, no. Backup catcher I think that most of the players who were available - and “good” - still considered themselves starters and didn’t want to play once a week. As IE points out, Torre could have - and should have - chosen to keep Pratt instead.
First base however, I think to get a truly better player - or at least better than Mientkiewicz projected to be, since he’s played worse - I don’t think any good ones were that available. To get a truly good player, before the season started, would have meant a trade. And that probably would have cost Hughes, or something like Chamberlain and Tabata. Maybe overpaying for Zaunn or something may have made sense, and maybe the money was more important to him than where he is, but going into the season there really weren’t that many options.
What I blame Cashman most for is saving Torre’s job after last year’s ALDS loss to Detroit.
I’ll agree with that.
Oh, and even if this year is a down year, I think based on RS/RA, they should have 49 wins right now, even with the huge down years/injures by a number of players. I’m not sure how Cashman can get blame for bad luck, unless you blame the entire difference in projected record on Torre not having enough of a bullpen or something.
you’re right, it isn’t. but 9 straight division titles, 5 pennants, and 3 WS rings should be enough to earn him a down year.
do you think Cashman is to blame for losing the WS in 2001? how about in 2003? how about the 2004 ALCS?
That would be true if Cashman assembled the team that won 9 straight division titles, 5 penants, and 3 WS rings, but he didn’t, Stick Michael did, and inexplicably, he lost his job because George thought that the media was giving him too much credit.
Stick is the person who transformed the Yankees from a losing team in the early 90s, that free agents had no interest in joining, to a free agent magnet.
He did that by excising the malcontents like Mel Hall, who unmercifully mocked a young Bernie Williams, and trading Roberto Kelly for Paul O’Neill because Kelly whined when he was moved out of CF to make room for Bernie. He also signed high character guys like Jimmy Key and Spike Owens, that changed the ethic on the team.
Stick is the person who was down with OBP before Moneyball made it fashionable. That’s why he signed Wade Boggs, whose patience served as a model for the other batters.
He is the person who shepherded the prospects that became the core of the championship teams, Bernie, Jeter, Rivera, Pettitte, Posada, protecting them from George’s whims. For example, Stick was ordered to trade Bernie, but he put his job on the line by lying to George, telling him that there was no interest in Bernie.
Cashman’s track record, otoh, is mixed at best. For a variety of reasons, his trades and/or signings, of Weaver, Brown, Vazquez, and Pavano all failed. The bench he has constructed is abysmal.
No, I blame Torre and bad luck for most of those postseason losses.
Torre’s laid back personality was the perfect antidote to Buck Showalter’s overcontrolled personality, but as Pat Riley has said, a coach (or manager) can become stale after being in one place too long.
It’s time to move on from the Torre era, and not to another laid back personalty like Mattingly , who didn’t even bother to argue one of the worst calls I have ever seen against Seattle earlier this season when Cano tagged out Bloomquvist? by at least three feet from the second base bag (Torre was serving a suspension during that game).
So it’s not about a down year, which I can live with, it’s about the future direction of the franchise post-Torre.
Cashman should fire Torre right now if he wants to save his job. This team should be much better with a good manager. I think you can blame the manager of a team that has the worst one run game record in the league and that team is one of the most talented teams in the majors.
All I hear out here in Orange County is that A-Rod coming out here is a done deal…..Who really knows other that # 13 & Boras….At what point does Cashman makes the call to Boras and inquires if A-Rod is open to being dealt to the Angels now….Anaheim is loaded with quality young position players that would fill several holes that theh Yanks have….Along with the Yankees wealth of young pitchers, a trade like that would set the future up rather nicely….Angels get the big bat they desire to make their run at the W.S…..I mean there’s no way Cashman can automatically keep him, the postseason is iffy right now so what’s there really to lose…..
He also signed high character guys like Jimmy Key and Spike Owens
First of all, it’s Spike Owen. Second of all, how does that loser fit at all into anything? Are you joking? Spike Owen lost his 1993 starting SS job to fricking Mike Gallego for Christ’s sake. Jimmy Key was an all star and won the clinching game of the 1996 World Series. How do those two belong in the same sentence?
The only thing at all significant about Spike Owen’s Yankee career is that he added another name to a great trivia question: Name everyone who played on either team in the 1986 World Series who went on to play for the Yankees.
This is the only worthwhile thing Spike Owen ever did…
YANKEES 9TH: LAMPKIN STAYED IN GAME (PLAYING C ); SEITZER STAYED
IN GAME (PLAYING 1B); Owen tripled to center; HENRY REPLACED
LLOYD (PITCHING); Kelly walked; Gallego singled to center [Owen
scored, Kelly to second]; 1 R, 2 H, 0 E, 2 LOB. Brewers 4,
Yankees 5.
A good debate going on here. I would have to agree with Rich that Cashman inherited a galloping horse. It was Stick along with Buck Showalter that taught the Yankees how to win again, starting in 93. Guys like Key, Stanley, Abbott, Boggs and O’Neill brought prior MLB sucess to the group of younger fellows which included Bernie etal. It was Bob Watson who served as GM in 96, so Cashman wasn’t at the helm when the string of championships began. He was an assistant who inherited a winning championship team. He has left a mark that is IMO more positive than bad, but lets not pretend that some of his moves particularly the following have not been success stories. Lilly for Weaver, Contreras, Pavano, Wright, Lefty reliever ? from Atlanta,Felix Rodriguez, Igawa. There is also the negatives that come from inaction and misjudgement. He miscalculated the loss of Sheffield. Letting him go without a replacement power quality righty bat has hurt the team as their record against lefties indicates. On the positive side was Abreu’s contribution to the second half, Justice and Glenallen Hill in 2000 and Boone in 03 and not too late to call A-rod a positive. The team wouldn’t have made the postseason for sure in 05 without him and stands no chance in 07 without him.
The bag is mixed but probably more favorable than not. His insistence on prospect trade restraint is an important contribution as well. Time will tell on some of the deals made last winter for prospects, but they don’t look too great at this point. It’s no small feat to win 10 years in a row so some credit needs to go to Brian, but also to the guy who signs the checks and cares about winning.
As to Torre, He’s done a fabulous job on the whole and I certainly didn’t expect it in 96 -if I’m truthful. I do think that he’s not the manager he was and I agree with the prior remark that Mattingly isn’t the guy. Girardi is very impressive. I thought his remarks on Fox last week were very insightful. I love Don, but don’t want him to become embittered if/when he would get the axe. (Another solid reason to hire Joe G.-remember what happened to Yogi?) As to A-rod to the Angels? Do we want to empower the Angels to have additional equipment to dominate the league for four or five years as we try to rebuild? Not me. Trading Shef to Detroit was a big mistake for the same reason. It made a great team that much better. He should have been traded only to a NL team or a mid-level contender. I said it all winter and I stand by it to this day.
i know and agree with all of that stuff about Stick. i am well aware of all that history and i am a fan of Stick’s work. i also agree with all of that stuff about Torre and i agree about Mattingly.
i agree that Michael gets a lot of credit for the early success in Cashman’s tenure, though Cashman did make some key pickups (notably Clemens, Justice, El Duque, Knoblaugh, etc) to keep the titles coming.
Also, a big part of that credit has to be shared with Bob Watson, who was responsible for guys like Girardi, Tino, Nelson, Gooden, Brosius, Wells, Duncan, Fielder, Hayes, Raines, Curtis, Stanton, etc. in fact, Watson was as much of an architect of the championship teams as Michael was, but history seems to have forgotten Watson for some reason.
i also agree that Cashman has a mixed record, though i think it’s very hard to properly evaluate, which is why i think he deserves more time. it’s hard to untangle his moves from George’s, and it’s hard to untangle his moves from the LEGACY of George’s moves.
this has been said over and over, but how would this team look with Beltran and Vlad instead of Damon and Abreu?? pretty good, i would imagine.
really, i don’t deny there are flaws on cashman’s resume. i just think he has demonstrated enough of a good long-term vision and strategy since he has taken full-control, that he deserves a little more time to see that vision through.
The dividends for the Shetfield trade will be realized in 2009….By then Detroit will still be paying big dough for him and he’ll be a PH part time DH…The Tigers are counting on him for this year basically…Though he’s surprised me with the type of season he’s having considering the injury, his age, and his brutal swing…..Whelan is the key for the Yanks…..
i just think he has demonstrated enough of a good long-term vision and strategy since he has taken full-control, that he deserves a little more time to see that vision through.
Couldn’t agree more. Say a 2009 rotation of Wang, Hughes, Chamberlain, Kennedy and TBA completely falls on it’s collective face, we’ll know Cashman’s emphasis on pitching was for naught, and that he should pay with his job. If the additional RH pitching depth in the system doesn’t bring back talented positional players in trades, we can say it was a misused vision. I have a feeling neither will be the case.
Cashman had also been left with a very inflexible roster from the peak activity of Steinbrenner in the 2001-2004 period. He’s never really had the ability to overhaul the roster, which means it will take until at least 2009 to even begin to get a read on his “vision.”
As for the Unit and Sheffield trades, I’d definitely grade them as Incomplete’s. The big fish in each deal has been on the shelf for either all or most of the 2007 season. Both Ohlendorf and Sanchez still have plenty of potential, particularly Sanchez as a power bullpen arm (as SO CAL PAT M said, probably won’t pay dividends until 2009).
Or, to put in another way, say another manager and GM ride a young, stacked rotation of power arms to the World Series in 2009, we’ll know who to thank.
I don’t know if that is due to not getting enough of the ball or perhaps due to hitting offspeed pitches in those cases and having to supply most of the juice.
For argument’s sake, you can sometimes can more distance on off speed pitches if you can manage to get them up in the air with backspin, giving some lift. I read an analysis somewhere it happens often on 12-6 curveballs.. the contact with the bat reversing the spin, etc.
Cashman’s worst non-pitching decisions were Nieves and Mientkiewicz. By using only a portion of the money that was wasted on Igawa, he could have found much better solutions.
Someone noted, I believe on WasWatching, that Nieves’ MiLB line show that he should be better than he is, and be comparable to what’s out there for back up catchers. He was also thought to be strong defensively. Granted, he hadn’t been that, but I don’t necessarily fault Cashman for this move. If you plug Nieves ih there, and he turns out to be John Flaherty/Sal Fasano, well then you know what you have and it comes cheap. If you plug Todd Pratt in there, you basically have this problem all over again next year. He went with Nieves and it hasn’t worked out. If you want to fault Cashman, fault him for not making a move during the season to get Nieves out there. His total lack of offense and defense will show when Posada starts to slow down in late August and that is not acceptable. Is Chris Coste still in the minors for the Phillies?
yup- thanks for the input on Watson’s trades. I had forgotten the steal of Tino and Nelson. Brosius worked out way better than I could have ever imagined. That guy seemed to always sustain or cap rallies. On the whole I think we are very agreeable today. What is everyone’s prediction as to how the team fares out of the gate down starting in Tampa? Normally one would think those are set up shots in terms of billiards, but 2005 will forever remind me that it’s far from the case. I just hope the team is juiced to resume their play. The ASB sometimes is a dampener for veterans and three guys have very long flights. I think CC and the track team will be a challenge for Jorge. What’s the pitching lineup for the weekend?
yup—Which Beltran? The 2005, 2007 version? Or the 2006 version? I’m glad the team passed on Beltran. Vlad should have been the player, but George, with a big boost from Doc Gooden(!), fell in love with the older, very annoying player, that is Sheffield.
If Ichiro gets $100M over 5 years what is ARod gonna get? $210M over 7 years?
Am I being naive in thinking that the chances of ARod not being a Yankee next year very slim? Here’s what I came up with:
Let’s say ARod is worth $175 for 7 years (as someone suggested.)
The Yankees have ARod’s services under this contract through 2010 for $50M. In that time period, ARod will make $81M in salary ($31M from Texas plus the $50M from the Yankees), $4M in deferred signing bonus from Texas, and have $45M in deferred salary plus interest from 2011-2019. There are also a bunch of award bonuses that I believe the Yankees are on the hook for.
So the Yankees can essentially give ARod a $175M/7 year($25M/year) contract by giving him a $90M extension, perhaps structured to benefit the luxury tax situation (backloaded most likely) and perhaps restructure the award bonuses.
So the Yankees are in the driver’s seat, aren’t they? They can bump that $90M up to $100M, they can go to 8 years, or perhaps both.
And which are the teams that would really be in the running for ARod? The Giants just spent big on Zito. The Cubs just spent big on Soriano.
Add to that the fact, that, in my opinion, if ARod decides to “follow the money”, then that will be his legacy, without a doubt. If he stays, perhaps he ends up with a monument, as his contract would most likely cover the part of his career where he gets 3,000 hits and gets into single digit ranks on the all time homerun and RBI lists.
Am I way off the mark here?
Miggys numbers hardly matter. As stated, hes played more than he should have, but its not like hes a real fix. Considering hes a util. player and never played first, could we have expected much better? He hit like mientkiewicz was supposed to and until that 3 error game his defense was good enough to keep him out there. I give him credit for filling the firts base hole admirabley, even if he has been hurtful overall. Whod have done it if not him?
Here’s the problem with Cairo:
June 5: Placed 1B Doug Mientkiewicz on the 15-day DL.
June 20: Recalled 1B Andy Phills from AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre.
June 29: Phillips got the start at first base for Miguel Cairo (day off) on Thursday, writes the New York Post.
July 6: Phillps has been named the Yankees’ everyday first baseman, manager Joe Torre told the New York Times.
So, even though Cashman couldn’t find a better 1B than Mientkiewicz, and even though Cairo sucks, the blame is on Torre. It took him a month to realize Phillips is a better option than Cairo.
Which Beltran ??? The Switch hitting All-Star who hits over .300, drives in 100 + RBI’S, steals 35 plus bases, hits 35 plus dingers, and by the way is a Gold Glove centerfielder who maybe just turned 30….What are you kidding me, Centerfield would have been a done deal for at least 7 years….Vladdy will be DH’ing by 08….His knees are shot…..Beltran is a true 5 tool ballplayer…..And has many solid years to come…..
Beltran would not have survived Yankees fans with his horrible 2005.
And this year he’s something like 2 for 28 with two outs and RISP. And a .340 OBP. Hardly a $100 million player, IMO.
As for a gold gloves, big deal. See: Jeter, Derek. Anyway, I’ve seen Beltran have more than his share of bad Bernie moments in CF.
BTW….. Beltran is a career .280 hitter, so much for hitting over .300.
Hasn’t approached 35+ steals in 2005 or 2006 and has 13 in over half the 2007 season.
“Hardly a $100 million player, IMO.”
Not if you remember that Damon is a 50 million dollar player. Beltran for 17 a year is a huge bargain compared to Damon at 13. You have at worst, a league average CFer, at best an MVP candidate. That’s exactly the kind of player the Yanks should over pay for.
“As for a gold gloves, big deal. See: Jeter, Derek.”
Offer me one shred of evidence that Beltran is not a great centerfielder. For Cfers, he has been 4th in the NL, 3rd, and is second this year.
“Anyway, I’ve seen Beltran have more than his share of bad Bernie moments in CF.”
No you haven’t.
“For Cfers, he has been 4th in the NL, 3rd, and is second this year.”
That is, since Beltran signed his contract. He bumped our “centerfielder” to left when they were on the same team.
Yes I have, I watch a lot of Mets baseball.
And no one is arguing Damon. I didn’t reference Damon so it is a moot point, a red herring.
As above, career .280 hitter, likely to decline from there. Overrated, overpaid, exactly the kind of player the Yankees have been saddling themselves with of late.
Yes I have, I watch a lot of Mets baseball.
My condolences.
Overrated, overpaid, exactly the kind of player the Yankees have been saddling themselves with of late.
I don’t know. He’s young, he’s a good defender with a good throwing arm, he’s got the type of skills that indicate he should age well. Now, if the Yankees sign him at the end of his current deal, that’s the kind of player they’re saddling themselves with. They are typically signing hitters who are on the downslope and who can’t play defense.
And it’s fine to say Beltran is a .280 hitter, but it’s also disingenous. You gloss over the career OBP of .354 and career SLG of .491, both great for a CF. You are ignoring the fact that outside of 2005, where he played hurt all year, he has been an above average offensive performer in ever season since he was 24, while playing the hell out of CF. I’d love to have him on the Yanks.
Beltran would not have survived Yankees fans with his horrible 2005.
A-Rod is really stinking up the joing this year too.
Am I being naive in thinking that the chances of ARod not being a Yankee next year very slim?
after reading that Ichiro signed for 5 years, $100M, i think you might be.
you’re right, the Yankees *could* get an extension done, but that extension is going to be HUGE. and i just don’t know if the Yankees will do it.
it’s pretty weird seeing posada catching papelbon
Don, Tell me who in the game today would you rather playing Center…..Sizemore, Andu Jones ( maybe )....Beltran is just goinf to get better, and he’d be dynamite in the Stadium….
Leyland is wishing he had Mo in the pen right now.
This is quite a collapse.
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