You know what would be really cool?  A Simpson’s episode where Bart made Derek Jeter DH in a softball game because they were loaded with defensive wizards.

Wasn’t ARod on place for like +6 (or better) not that long ago?  Has he had a bad few weeks, or is there a problem in the numbers?

At least Jeter has improved on his pre-All Star pace…actually, if it isn’t too hard, could you pro-rate his numbers from just the All Star break on?  I’m not trying to say he’s good, I’m just curious.

Yeah, not sure what’s up with Rodriguez.  To my eyes his defense has been fine but he’s dropped quite a bit of late.  On Aug 1 his ZR was .806 and he was on pace to be +10 for the season.  Since then, over his last 25 games he’s made 34 plays in 59 chances, a ZR of .576.

Whi decides whether something is a chance because what “seems” to not be making are the plays he has to dive for, especially when Mussina is pitching. There have been a lot of that.

The only reason why Jeter gets the Gloves is because he, A-Rod, and Nomar came out the pretty boy, real good young crop of SS. In moreso is due to the flip play, diving into the stands, etc… which gives him a good rep. Also, one can’t forget the hardware.

Oh yeah, the River Ave Blues Blog had a discussion on whether or not Robby Cano and Kim Jones have some love affair. It got pretty funny. You should check it out.

Phil: click on the link at the top of this article, and then click on the link at the top of that article.  You’ll find an excellent explanation of zone rating.

I have a question, SG.  Does any AL starting SS have a worse zone rating than Jeter?  Lugo may be worse or perhaps Carlos Guillen (who at least plays 1B sometimes), but no one else comes to mind.  Perhaps the Yanks could get Jeter to try first next year for 10-20 games and see whether Betemit can handle the position.

Whi decides whether something is a chance because what “seems” to not be making are the plays he has to dive for, especially when Mussina is pitching. There have been a lot of that.

The field is divided into zones.  Each position is assigned an area of responsibility.  Any balls that are converted into outs at least 50% of the time in those zones is considered a chance.  There are three people at each game who determine whether chances are fieldable or not.

You’re right though, some chances are harder than others and zone rating doesn’t differentiate between that.  If someone has a lot of hard line drives hit at them and someone else has a lot of soft grounders, you wouldn’t be able to tell.  That’s why you should look at multi-year zone rating if you are trying to figure out a player’s true defensive talent.

I have a question, SG.  Does any AL starting SS have a worse zone rating than Jeter?

Brendan Harris from Tampa Bay is worse so far at .756.  Here’s the rankings:

Clayton, Royce: .876
McDonald, John: .874
Crosby, Bobby: .870
Bartlett, Jason: .846
Uribe, Juan: .838
Tejada, Miguel: .836
Pena Jr., Tony: .835
Cabrera, Orlando: .828
Lugo, Julio: .816
Guillen, Carlos: .805
Peralta, Jhonny: .803
Betancourt, Yuniesky: .800
Young, Michael: .792
Jeter, Derek: .762
Harris, Brendan: .756

From Mike R. of River Ave. Blues Blog:

I’d like to suggest possible headlines.

“Yankees wield powerful Wang”

Thanks, SG.  Over the next few years, it would appear that Jeter’s defense is going to approximate what we saw in CF with Bernie Williams.  Hopefully, a new manager (whomever that may be) can talk Jeter into moving to 1B for the good of the team before that happens.

On another note, Matsui’s decent zone rating has been a pleasant surprise.

Since then, over his last 25 games he’s made 34 plays in 59 chances, a ZR of .576.

i guess this is why ZR is only useful with a large sample size, b/c i don’t recall seeing A-Rod missing too many playable balls.  i think this is *mostly* a fluke b/c off the top of my head i can remember a bunch of plays where he did nothing wrong but is being penalized:

in the 3rd game of the first Detroit series he missed a ball that took a bad hop.  that is a legitimate chance he missed.  but later in the same game he fielded a ball deep in foul territory and made a perfect throw, but the runner beat it out.  that is not his fault.

the same goes for that last mussina start.  in the first inning he fielded one going to his right and threw to 2nd.  the runner was safe but then Robbie nailed the guy going home.  there wasn’t really anything else he could do there, but he is penalized for not converting the ball into an out.

also buried in there i believe are some slow dribblers/bunts that he had to bare hand and may not have gotten the runner.  that happens when playing the angels.

and of course, there was the error in the first Detroit game, which is a legimate missed chance.

Hopefully, a new manager (whomever that may be) can talk Jeter into moving to 1B for the good of the team before that happens.

I suppose there is an outside chance that they could clear up an OF spot for him as well.  E.g. IF they were able to trade Giambi and Damon, then put Matsui in at DH and Jeter in LF.  Though Cashman is trying to remake the organization, that might be a *bit* of a stretch, but…I also wouldn’t discount Giambi getting a MAJOR injury before the season is out, that puts next year in doubt, so that they would only need to clear Damon.

I think Jeter would be more valuable in the OF, what with his arm and still above-average speed.  But if the OF isn’t available then yeah, he should move to first, or even third (if the unthinkable happens).

i guess this is why ZR is only useful with a large sample size, b/c i don’t recall seeing A-Rod missing too many playable balls

There also was a game last week - gosh I don’t remember which one - where there was a line-drive just to his right.  He got the glove on it but it was still a hit.  There is no way he could have made the play, but since the ball was within 3 feet of him, it was clearly in his zone.

So, in what year does Derek Jeter become the Yankees first baseman?

i guess this is why ZR is only useful with a large sample size, b/c i don’t recall seeing A-Rod missing too many playable balls.

I completely agree, this is where the difficulty of chances issue rears its ugly head.

At the very least we can be comfortable that Alex has been much better defensively this year than he was in either 2005 or 2006.

Hopefully, a new manager (whomever that may be) can talk Jeter into moving to 1B for the good of the team before that happens.

Get someone to position him better at SS.

So, in what year does Derek Jeter become the Yankees first baseman?

2012

DJ is not a good defensive SS.  Duh.  I don’t see him moving, though, so we just have to be thankful for his bat.

SG you probably know better than anyone that the defensive metrics for fielding are still lagging slightly behind the offensive ones. why mention this? in SG’s ZR system jeter alwyas looks bad, but… in the Win Shares system that www.hardballtimes.com publishes he is above average…. in the baseball prospectus defensive system he scores above average saving currently 6 runs over an average shortstop. ics.truthfully he would be best suited to being the third baseman with his lack of range, great instincts, and solid arm, and ARod would be the better shortstop. probably the right baseball move when ARod came over, but politics is polit

that being said i can’t stand watching him wave at those balls up the middle and listening to Kay say “ground ball up the middle, and….byyyy jeter for a base hit…”

At the very least we can be comfortable that Alex has been much better defensively this year than he was in either 2005 or 2006.

And cerainly good enough to make the argument that he has been the most valuable player in the AL this year..

Win Shares system that www.hardballtimes.com publishes he is above average…

Win Shares give you a lot of credit just for showing up.  Especially at a key defensive position.

truthfully he would be best suited to being the third baseman with his lack of range, great instincts, and solid arm, and ARod would be the better shortstop

I think Jeter would be a terrible 3B and I don’t think A-Rod can be an above-average SS anymore.

Also, I think it will be an impossible situation for whoever the next Yankee SS is.  The first time that this poor schlub makes a couple of errors, we’re going to see about a million versions of “The Yankees have not one, but two Gold Glove shortstops on their roster, but neither one of them plays shortstop.”  (Assuming A-Rod stays, of course.)

SG you probably know better than anyone that the defensive metrics for fielding are still lagging slightly behind the offensive ones. why mention this?

I would agree with that.  This post isn’t really supposed to be a ‘bash Jeter’ post, it’s supposed to be a look at everyone on the Yankees.  That’s why I’m mentioning it.

in the Win Shares system that www.hardballtimes.com publishes he is above average…. in the baseball prospectus defensive system he scores above average saving currently 6 runs over an average shortstop.

I don’t trust either of those two measures at all, because of the way they are calculated.  Both are just fancied up versions of Range Factor which looks at how many plays a player makes per nine innings and compares them to average.  The biggest issue with both of them is they assume a completely normal distribution of balls in play.  Over a career, where the balls in play distribution should approach normal, I think they’re both useful, but over a single season they’re fairly close to meaningless IMO.

Any system that doesn’t rely on play by play data is going to have major holes in it.  While I appreciate the systems for those seasons where a play by play system was not available, as far as I’m concerned from 1987 on they’re close to worthless.  But again, that’s just my opinion.  I’m open to hearing the reasons my opinion may be wrong.

My eyes tell me there’s no way Jeter is 6 runs better than an average SS.  No freaking way.  I can’t trust a number that says he is.  I just can’t.

in SG’s ZR system jeter alwyas looks bad, but… in the Win Shares system that www.hardballtimes.com publishes he is above average…. in the baseball prospectus defensive system he scores above average saving currently 6 runs over an average shortstop.

The defensive portion of Win Shares and the BPro defensive metrics are worse than useless.  Ignore them.

MC- your prediction for the future is right on. how about “would jeter have had that one?”

disagree with the win shares system. fine. but even in the prospectus system if you follow the numbers over the years- jeter has actually gotten better as a fielder. where he used to be way below average now he is comfortably above average.

“who is wise? he who learns from everyone…”

i’ll go back to the drawing board…:)

but SG- i assume that you have also compared your ZR system for other shortstops around the league to the win shares numbers and BPro’s numbers- and have you come to the conclusion that they are wrong by those shortstops like they are about jeter?

not that this is the case necessarily here, but… didn’t bill james make a career out of showing that what our eyes saw wasn’t really what our eyes saw? to paraphrase- Omar Moreno may have looked like a leadoff hitter but he wasn’t one.

I wonder sometimes about Jeter’s positioning. He can’t be that far away from balls up the middle, can he? It’s getting to hte point where Cano is coming over to the left side of second and getting balls.

Jeter has and uncharacteristic 12SB and 8 CS with one SB attempt in August; he is clearly banged up- it’s probably a leg injury that also affects his range.  Now, his range is never great but if he’s 1/2 step slower than his normal level then that explains his poor defensive #‘s.  Still I think he could be a defensive asset in LF- between him and Melky I think a lot of hits would become outs and a lot of runners would be prevented from taking an extra base. Still I’m inclined to leave Jeter at SS until a capable SS or 3B comes up (ARod can move to SS).

but even in the prospectus system if you follow the numbers over the years- jeter has actually gotten better as a fielder. where he used to be way below average now he is comfortably above average.

does that pass the smell test to you?  does it jive with what you have seen this year?

FWIW, UZR had Jeter ahead of Guillen in July, by one run.

Clay Davenport has said him self that there is at least a 20 run +/- when using his system. That makes it pretty useless IMO.

Win Shares is the worst stat ever invented and if some not named Bill James had invented it, it would never be used in serious discussions. I don’t know why Hardballtimes bothers with it. Eric Byrnes? Get the fuck outta here.

That being said, everyone overreacts to Jeter’s defense in the game chatters. He’s missed 24 balls that the average SS would have made. There’s usually a comment on how “anyone else would have gotten that” 2 or 3 times a game. If anything, those numbers should tell you how foolish it is to try and evaluate defensive players, especially infielders, while just watching them on tv to a more specific degree then good, bad, and average.

Cano and Melky continue to look like studs out there, it’s a shame the talk always seems to revolve around Jeter.

Bobby Abreu and Matsui are also outperforming what I would have expected this year. I wonder if having a real centerfielder who can throw makes it easier on the corners.

i assume that you have also compared your ZR system for other shortstops around the league to the win shares numbers and BPro’s numbers- and have you come to the conclusion that they are wrong by those shortstops like they are about jeter?

To be fair, not exhaustively.  I have only compared the ZR numbers to the more advanced stuff available like UZR and David Pinto’s system.  What I have done is read the chapter in Baseball Prospectus 2002 on how the Davenport Fielding Numbers are calculated (I think it’s 2002) and I’ve looked at the common threads in some of the players Bpro’s rated highly and poorly at times.

I don’t really think of Win Shares as anything more than a defensive counting stat.

This is actually a good idea for a project to work on, perhaps in the off-season.  I have actual chance data back to 2002 now so that would give me six years of data to play around with.  I can see if the players who get the most fieldable chances correlate with those who rate highest on B Pro’s numbers.

Cano and Melky continue to look like studs out there, ...

Word.  Let’s talk about them some.

Microsoft Word?

LOL

i like this place…

signing off till tomorrow night.

have a nice weekend gentlemen- and let’s beat those rays.

cano is a pleasure to watch in the field.

and YUP the more i think about it the more it you are right ...it stinks very bad

I love how the “defensive wiz” ManCaveItch comes out below average.  Can’t hit, can’t field, what do ya do?  Can’t hit, can’t field, what do ya do? 

The C&C boys really are big for this team, in both aspects of the game.  Lovin’ it.

He’s missed 24 balls that the average SS would have made.

This bears repeating.  That’s basically one single every five games.  Defense is over-rated.

When I look at the list of AL shortstops, I see a lot of guys that are better defensively than Jeter, but few that I’d rather have at shortstop when their offense, relative to Jeter, is taken into account.  Obviously Tejada would be nice, but he’s expensive, and he’s getting older.  Same with Orlando Cabrera.  After those two, the only guys who can hang with Jeter on offense are Guillen and maybe Peralta, but are they THAT much better on defense?

In other words, does it make more sense to move Jeter to, say, first base, and plug in a new shortstop?  Or is the best strategy to continue to leverage Jeter’s offense at short and plug in a better-hitting first baseman?

We continue to complain about Jeter’s defense (for good reason), but what really are the options here?

FWIW, I think defensive WS are pretty good if you wanted to compare say Phill Rizzuto’s 1949 season with Ozzie Smith’s 1978 system (two arbitrary years).  And that, I think, is more the type of thing James was trying to get to.  He’s generally more of a big-picture guy.

But certainly, if you wanted to compare DJ to maybe Miguel Tejada, you should use ZR if you don’t have access to something like UZR.  I’d also wonder if there were a “simple” system that would let you start with UZR, and maybe combine with with errors to get a number.  Personally, I think an error is worth more than just a “missed play” (on average), though not much.

It’s a fair point to wonder if injuries have affected Jeter (since his numbers are fairly significantly down from last year), but he isn’t going to get any better than say 2006.  The Yankees ideal case would be if Alberto Gonzalez were hitting enough to start next year, but he’s not.  As for how much criticism Jeter’s replacement would get, it’s all based on the Yankees winning.

Why is everyone saying 1B? I see Jeter in LF sooner or later… Once we trade away Damon, and place Matsui at first or maybe that defensive wizard, Jason Giambi.

Wow, I didn’t realize how bad things are for the Mets these days.

Why is everyone saying 1B? I see Jeter in LF sooner or later

Seems like Jeters skills will translate to 1B more easily. He still has good hands I think, it’s just the range that’s the issue.

This bears repeating.  That’s basically one single every five games.  Defense is over-rated.

SG is showing -24 *RUNS* per 162 games.  SG can correct me if i am wrong, but isn’t that worth about 2 1/2 wins?

if the Yankees miss the playoffs by a game, is it still overrated?

of course, you could argue that the yankees didn’t have that extra win for a million other reasons, so it would be completely unfair to Jeter to blame him for that. 

but when you can translate defense into actual Wins, i think we see how important it really is.

if the Yankees miss the playoffs by a game, is it still overrated?

Especially in a season where it looks like we need every game we can get..

Also, without know how the calculation is done and how the model was developed, it’s hard be able to say what other effects those plays that aren’t made have, but you’ve got to think that it’s not as simple as a play not being made.  For example, if it’s in the 7th when a pitcher is tiring, and a play is botched, it could be more harmful than a play in the 1st.

That’s also not taking into account the Mike Mussian whiny bitch factor - namely, the more errors you make or plays you dont make result in him being pissed off and pitching worse.

SG is showing -24 *RUNS* per 162 games.  SG can correct me if i am wrong, but isn’t that worth about 2 1/2 wins?

You’re right, it’s fairly significant.  The thing is, this season has been out of character for Jeter of late.  Here’s his zone rating since 2004

2004: .847
2005: .830
2005: .810
2007: .762

I realize it looks like a trend, but trends in baseball do not tend to be so clearly linear.  There is certainly age-related decline in here, but if were to project Jeter in 2008, a reasonable expectation would be a bounce-back to .800 or so.  That’s closer to a -10, which isn’t great, but more than made up for by the positional-adjustment and his offense.

My guess, he’s banged up and it’s showing on both his offense and his defense.  Look at his offense post ASB, it’s pretty lackluster.

SG is showing -24 *RUNS* per 162 games.  SG can correct me if i am wrong, but isn’t that worth about 2 1/2 wins?

That’s all true.  But SG is also showing 24 plays not made compared to average thus far.  Based on Jeter’s defensive innings, that is what I said it was—one single every five games.  That’s a bit more than 32 singles over a season, and just guessing at the run values of those singles and the outs that weren’t made, 24 runs sounds about right.

So now consider the other SSs on that list that SG posted up in #10.  With the exception of Guillen, every one of them gives most or all of (or more than) their defensive advantage over Jeter back on offense.  And given the noise in defensive stats, I’m not convinced that Guillen is really any better than Jeter.  So are you still going to tell me that my “defense is over-rated statement” is really so outlandish?

It’s real easy to say that an average defensive shortstop would have saved two or three wins, but you have to consider offense too.  It’s real easy to say that with Jeter at first, all you have to replace offensively is some combination of Phillips, Cairo and Mientkiewicz.  But the reality is that you’d also lose Giambi’s, Duncan’s, and Betemit’s games there.  So it’s a bit more complex.

For example, if it’s in the 7th when a pitcher is tiring, and a play is botched, it could be more harmful than a play in the 1st.

But if a couple of plays are missed in the first or third or fifth, and they don’t lead to runs, we never blame the fact that the pitcher got tired in the seventh on the extra batters he had to face earlier.

If you want to go through all of the game films and assign specific import to every play made or not made, go ahead.  Failing that, the general assumption that these things tend to even out over large enough sample sizes usually works well enough for the kind of analysis SG is presenting here.

So it’s a bit more complex.

I don’t think anyone is saying it would be EASY to move Jeter.  But just that it is the best thing.  If when ARod came to NY Jeter had moved to third, it would have been better.  If year is going to be Betemit at first, Jeter at SS, wouldn’t you rather flip them?  Sure, it is complex and there are lots of factors.  But long term they need to do what is best for the team.

And you know what?  Maybe next year isn’t the year to make that move.  Maybe the following year (when Giambi and Abreau are both probably gone), it makes sense to move Jeter off of SS.  I just think a lot of people here want to know there IS a plan for moving Jeter off of SS in the near future, and he isn’t still going to be there in 2011 just because he’s the Yankees top SS ever.

If year = If next year

So now consider the other SSs on that list that SG posted up in #10.  With the exception of Guillen, every one of them gives most or all of (or more than) their defensive advantage over Jeter back on offense.

Tejada?

i would also guess that Orlando Cabrera does not give up all of his defensive advantage either.

but i don’t disagree with your overall premise. i agree that given the yankees current roster, playing jeter at ss is probably the way to go for the immediate future and as long as he adds more runs on offense than he gives back on defense, the yankees should be ok.

i was merely objecting to the “defense is overrated” statement when we look at it in a vacuum.  if jeter’s defense was average, he’d be worth an additional 2 1/2 wins.  i don’t think defense ITSELF is overrated. 

but i guess i agree that in putting together the ideal yankee lineup with their current roster, defense is an overrated part of the equations b/c jeter kindof has to play SS to maximize his value.

a pound of defense is more than a pound of offense.  When jeter fails to make a play, it forces Yankees pitchers to throw more, which fatigues them throughout the season.  all things being equal, I’d rather have a SS that’s +24 defense and -24 offense than the other way around.

and i also agree with SG that Jeter is likely hurt and should probably bounce back some next year to an acceptable, 2006-like, level of defense.

I’d rather have a SS that’s +24 defense and -24 offense than the other way around.

Wow, that is… extreme.  I’m a big fan of defense, but -24 offense is… wow.  But I guess there is also context.  If Andy Phillips is at 1B, -24 SS offense is kind of like sucky.

2006-like, level of defense.

What are good comps for Jeter on defense, and has any of them improved with age/experience, and how/why did they improve, and can that happened with Jeter?

But just that it is the best thing.

Mike, I meant that it’s a bit more complex to figure out if a particular set of shifts really is a net improvement, since it depends on the total contribution (offense and defense) of several players other than Jeter.  Sorry if that wasn’t clear.

Tejada?

Yes.  Tejada gives up 9 points of OPS+ to Jeter this year (117 to 126), and has missed a couple dozen games.  Now if you look at several years’ worth of batting data, then Tejada might come out better offensively.  But of course, if you were going to do that you’d have to look at more than just this year to date on the defensive side too.

i would also guess that Orlando Cabrera does not give up all of his defensive advantage either.

I think you’d guess wrong.  Cabrera’s OPS+ is 108, and this is the first year that he’s been an above league-average hitter.  The stolen bases add some value, but not enough.

a pound of defense is more than a pound of offense.

No it’s not.  A run is a run.  The scoring environment changes things a little bit one way or another, but not all that much.

If when ARod came to NY Jeter had moved to third, it would have been better.

That ship has sailed.  And I’m not sure that flipping them right now would be a net positive.  Like I said, I think Jeter would be a lousy 3B and I don’t think that A-Rod would be a plus SS any more.  But that’s just my gut.

If (next) year is going to be Betemit at first, Jeter at SS, wouldn’t you rather flip them?

I don’t know.  I don’t think there’s enough data on Betemit’s defense at SS.  He might also suck if exposed for 150+ games.

And you know what?  Maybe next year isn’t the year to make that move.  Maybe the following year (when Giambi and Abreau are both probably gone), it makes sense to move Jeter off of SS.

I agree.

I just think a lot of people here want to know there IS a plan for moving Jeter off of SS in the near future, and he isn’t still going to be there in 2011 just because he’s the Yankees top SS ever.

I’m afraid I can’t help you there.  Cashman doesn’t return my calls.

“defense is an overrated part of the equations b/c jeter kindof has to play SS to maximize his value.”

That’s only if you believe that his skills wouldn’t translate to him being above average at another position. His defensive numbers in the OF might actually make him more valuable if he was enough of a plus there, it’s not like his bat would be a liability there. His offense might get a bump Soriano style getting out of the infield.

“What are good comps for Jeter on defense, and has any of them improved with age/experience, and how/why did they improve, and can that happened with Jeter?”

No one gets better defensively in their mid 30s. Most of Jeter’s comps on D were probably moved off of SS long before 33.

No one gets better defensively in their mid 30s.

Okay, I meant not fall off the cliff.  Actually, I don’t know what I mean.  I just don’t understand why Jeter is so awful (or not good, I don’t want to stir any controversy) on defense.

I don’t know that you can say a run is a run, at least if you think pythag has any bearing on how a season “should” progress.  There’s a difference between a team that scores 1000 runs and gives up 900 compared to a team that scores 800 and gives up 700, the former “should” have a .552 winning percentage, and the latter a .566, which equates to a little over 2 games over the whole season.

All right then Cowboy, how about “Jeter has to play SS to miximize his value to this year’s Yankee team”?

And while it’s true that no one gets better defensively in their mid-30s, all players have years where they perform better or worse than usual for any number of reasons.

There’s a difference between a team that scores 1000 runs and gives up 900 compared to a team that scores 800 and gives up 700…

There’s also a difference between saying a run is a run, and saying that 100 runs is 100 runs.  Are we talking about completely rebuilding a team, or moving one or two players?  I seriously doubt you can show me a one or two player roster change that turns a 1000/900 team into an 800/700 team.

Actually, I further thought, I think we might have to exclude Neifi Perez from those roster changes or I might be in trouble.

On further further thought, has there ever been anything close to a 1000/900 team?  IOW, what’s the worst pitching/defense team that’s ever had anything close to a 1,000 run offense?

That ship has sailed.  And I’m not sure that flipping them right now would be a net positive.  Like I said, I think Jeter would be a lousy 3B and I don’t think that A-Rod would be a plus SS any more.  But that’s just my gut.

Oh, I’m not suggesting to do it NOW.  I meant in 2004, when ARod first showed up, it would have been good.  Any more, no ARod stays at 3rd, for lots of reasons.  I DO think DJ would be a decent 3B.  Maybe not Scott Rolen, but around average.

I don’t think there’s enough data on Betemit’s defense at SS.  He might also suck if exposed for 150+ games.

Yes, that’s true.  But 1) I have a feeling Jeter would be a better 1B than Betemit and 2) While I think Betemit would be below-average, I still think he would be better than Jeter.

Cashman doesn’t return my calls

He returned mine once, but said, “if you don’t stop calling I’m going to notify the police…”

No one gets better defensively in their mid 30s.

I think MGL said his studies showed that first basemen improved as they got older, while the rest of the positions got worse.

I further thought

Sheesh.  On further thought, of course.

—-No it’s not.  A run is a run.—-

Tell that to the Rockies, who by virtue of their home field, have essentially a lineup of 8 jeters (at least for home games).  inevitably, their pitching fatigues (and their hitters too!) and they have a harder time building a winning team.

As I have posted before, this offseason presents the perfect opportunity for the Yankees to “persuade” Jeter to move out of the SS position.

After they extend A-Rod’s contract, they should go to Jeter and offer him the same extension contingent on his acquiescence to a position shift.

I think it would be an offer that he can’t refuse.

On further further thought, has there ever been anything close to a 1000/900 team? 

All teams that allowed at least 850 runs and scored at least 900.

Year Team Name         - RF / RA
1894 Boston Beaneaters - 1220 / 1002
1894 Philadelphia Phillies - 1143 / 966
1895 Philadelphia Phillies - 1068 / 957
1930 New York Yankees - 1062 / 898
1894 Chicago Colts - 1041 / 1066
1894 Brooklyn Grooms - 1021 / 1007
1890 New York Giants - 1018 / 875
1999 Cleveland Indians - 1009 / 860
1930 Chicago Cubs - 998 / 870
1996 Seattle Mariners - 993 / 895
1887 Baltimore Orioles - 975 / 861
2000 Colorado Rockies - 968 / 897
1890 Brooklyn Ward’s Wonders - 964 / 893
1996 Colorado Rockies - 961 / 964
1887 Louisville Colonels - 956 / 854
1894 Pittsburgh Pirates - 955 / 972
1996 Baltimore Orioles - 949 / 903
1999 Texas Rangers - 945 / 859
1930 Philadelphia Phillies - 944 / 1199
1890 Philadelphia Athletics - 941 / 855
1998 Texas Rangers - 940 / 871
2000 Houston Astros - 938 / 944
1894 Cleveland Spiders - 932 / 896
1996 Boston Red Sox - 928 / 921
1929 Detroit Tigers - 926 / 928
1997 Colorado Rockies - 923 / 908
2001 Colorado Rockies - 923 / 906
1936 Detroit Tigers - 921 / 871
1936 Cleveland Indians - 921 / 862
1936 Chicago White Sox - 920 / 873
1894 Cincinnati Reds - 910 / 1085
1999 Colorado Rockies - 906 / 1028
1887 Brooklyn Grays - 904 / 918
1895 Cincinnati Reds - 903 / 854
1925 St. Louis Browns - 900 / 906

I think it would be an offer that he can’t refuse.

Hell, yes it would.  But is it worth paying Jeter $30M per year for his decline phase just to get him to volunteer to move off SS?

“All right then Cowboy, how about “Jeter has to play SS to miximize his value to this year’s Yankee team”?”

Absolutely agree with that. There was no reason to expect him to be this bad this either. He had a better defensive projection then A-rod at the beginning of the season. I’d guess that his skill set is such that if he’s not at 100% (or 90), he can’t field. Sorta like with Damon and hitting.

“Tell that to the Rockies, who by virtue of their home field, have essentially a lineup of 8 jeters (at least for home games).  inevitably”

Matt Holliday is like +22 in Left. And Taveras is there for his speed and defense. In fact, the only time the Rockies made the playoffs is when they said fuck defense and went with the Blake Street Bombers offense and beat the shit out of the ball. Tiring out the other teams pitchers has its uses too.

the best you can hope for is to tire the other team’s pitchers out for the last game of a series.  meanwhile, you have to play all your home games there.

would you be excited if the yankees started playing games where both sides consistently threw 200+ pitches a game?  People have suggested that teams be allowed to carry an extra pitcher when playing at colorado!

Hell, yes it would.  But is it worth paying Jeter $30M per year for his decline phase just to get him to volunteer to move off SS?

In purely valued added terms, no it wouldn’t, but if they wait to negotiate an extension until after his contract expires after the 2010 season (he will be paid $21 million that year) when he will be 36, what will be the AAV of the contract they are likely to offer over how many years?

If you think it will be for less than $25 million a year over three years, it makes sense to wait until 2010 to address the positional issue (assuming you think they won’t address it earlier apart from his contractual situation).

If you think it will be for $25 million a year or more over three years, it probably makes sense to agree to complete the extension now in order to gain the added benefit of a position switch.

Kronic,

I owe you an apology. I BBRefed the Blake Street Bombers, they were not a good hitting team at all (99 OPS+) and were an above average pitching team (108 ERA+). So I was wrong there. Not sure how good their defense was.

And no, I have no interest in those kinds of games.

I think you’d guess wrong.  Cabrera’s OPS+ is 108, and this is the first year that he’s been an above league-average hitter.  The stolen bases add some value, but not enough.

i think you missed my point.  i was saying i would guess that in 2007, OFFENSE + DEFENSE, Orlando Cabrera is probably roughly equal to Jeter.  of course i know that Jeter is much better hitter than Cabrera, just like i know that Cabrera is a much better fielder. i don’t see how OPS+ proves anything either way.  we’d have to translate their offense and defense into runs and see how they compare.  same with Tejada.

His offense might get a bump Soriano style getting out of the infield.

good point.

you guys would want to pay a 36-38 year old 1Bman/LFer who hits somewhere in the .825-.875 OPS range upwards of $25M?

what is that actually worth if your name wasn’t Derek Jeter, $10-12M?

there is no way i would commit that kind of money to Jeter right now, all emotions aside.

we’d have to translate their offense and defense into runs and see how they compare

I know everyone here loves Win Shares.  Top 5 SS in the AL (through 8/23):

Cabrerra 21
Jeter   20
Guillen 17
Peralta 17
Young   16

Top 5 last year:

Jeter   33
Guillen 26
Young   26
Tejada   23
Cabrerra 19

Basically the same players.  Jeter is the top of the pile, but Guillen, Young, and Cabrerra are right there as well.  Here’s what I think it comes down to.  If Jeter was a defensive whiz (or even average) at SS, and you need a first-baseman next year, you keep DJ where he is and find a 3B.  But since he’s not, next year you have to see which is easier to get - a quality 1B or a quality SS.  If they could get Cabrerra for DeSalvo and Wright you move Jeter to first, no question.  If getting a SS of that caliber costs Kennedy+, see if you can find a 1B cheap.

find a 3B = find a 1B

you guys would want to pay a 36-38 year old 1Bman/LFer who hits somewhere in the .825-.875 OPS range upwards of $25M?

there is no way i would commit that kind of money to Jeter right now, all emotions aside.

It’s not what I want, it’s an acknowledgement what is likely to be. I can’t see them ever cutting Jeter’s salary. If you can accept that premise, why not find a way to use the Yankees’ financial generosity to get him to finally stop playing SS?

If I had the power, Jeter would have already vacated the position.

If Jeter was a defensive whiz (or even average) at SS, and you need a first-baseman next year, you keep DJ where he is and find a 3B.  But since he’s not, next year you have to see which is easier to get - a quality 1B or a quality SS.  If they could get Cabrerra for DeSalvo and Wright you move Jeter to first, no question.  If getting a SS of that caliber costs Kennedy+, see if you can find a 1B cheap.

I don’t get this.  The Yankees have eleventy billion 1B/DHs, and another bunch of players who probably should move to 1B/DH.  The last thing they need to do is go out looking for another 1B, even a cheap one.

you guys would want to pay a 36-38 year old 1Bman/LFer who hits somewhere in the .825-.875 OPS range upwards of $25M?

what is that actually worth if your name wasn’t Derek Jeter, $10-12M?

Carlos Lee has an .884 OPS this season, and an .840 for his career; he’ll be getting $18.5M in his age 36 season.  Alfonso Soriano is at .841 this year and .836 career; he’s owed $18M per for his age 36-38 seasons.  Now, I’m not saying that Jeter at age 36 is going to be worth $25M a year.  I am saying that you’re seriously underestimating the market rate for an .850 OPS hitter, especially five years from now.