What does this have to do with medical marijuana?

Do you have to look at the difference between TSBG and Damon and see how much that is worth?

By the way, when I see TSBG my mind immediately thinks “Tea Bag”  Have fun with that one.

$$ Value assuming a marginal win cost of $4,500,000

SG - I know we’ve talked about the value of a marginal win changing for the Yankees, so I’ll ask - is this value that you see for them as currently projected? If so, when does the value start to drop off as their projected wins decrease (the value of a marginal win for a, say, 100 win team, vice a 90 win team)? Thanks!

To answer my own question I guess it would be best to run team projections with Damon vs. team projections without Damon since Gardner being the 4th OFer has more value than Hoffmann being the 4th OFer.

I still think Damon isn’t really worth much to the Yankees anymore.  I’d rather go with Tea Bag.

Sherman:

The Yankees are telling agents that they only have $2 million, at most, to spend on a left fielder. They figure Damon, even in a diminishing market, would never drop his demands that low. The Yanks being the Yanks, of course, could always just create extra money in the budget as they did last year when GM Brian Cashman successfully lobbied Hal Steinbrenner to add Andy Pettitte’s $5.5 million base plus makeable incentives to the payroll.

However, Yankees management clearly felt the Yanks needed Pettitte far more for the 2009 season than they need Damon for 2010. In addition, the Yanks were feeling a level of desperation last offseason having failed to qualify for the playoffs in 2008 and with a new stadium about to open in 2009. After having won the World Series, ownership is not quite as compelled to blow up the budget again.

Hal Steinbrenner, after all, has shown a much greater willingness to hold to some financial guidelines than his father, George, did. For example, the Post has learned, the Yanks had a completed trade last July with Milwaukee for Mike Cameron, pending ownership’s blessing to take on the money. But Hal Steinbrenner refused to add the approximately $5.5 million in salary and luxury tax it would have cost for the rest of the season, so the deal was scrapped.

So unless ownership reverses course on the budget, the Yankees will continue to look at a supplementary player for left field rather than Damon. Specifically, the Yanks would like to find someone to start rather than Brett Gardner or serve as a righty-swinging complement to Gardner.

The player that most entices the Yankees is Xavier Nady, who, like Damon, is represented by Scott Boras. As long as they are comfortable Nady is playable in left field after a second Tommy John surgery then the Yanks would love how his right-center power projects to their park. However, Nady is of interest to several teams and, therefore, might be too pricey for the Yankees.

Their next target is Reed Johnson because, of the remaining candidates, he is the one who projects best to being a help defensively while also having a history of hitting lefties well. The other three free-agent possibilities, at the moment, are Rocco Baldelli, Jerry Hairston and Marcus Thames.

It could be posturing. Also, they signed Royce Ring and David Winfree to mL contracts, in addition to Gorecki.

[3] FWIW, I’ve read the Yankees seem to value Damon around $6M.  So assuming they believe he is worth a similar number of wins as CAIRO projects, they’re probably feeling a win to them right now is worth about $3M.

Also, they signed Royce Ring and David Winfree to mL contracts, in addition to Gorecki.

Yeah, I just mentioned in the other thread they are stockpiling minor-league FA to play the OF.  Just a quick glance by me, they only have 2 guys who played in AA/AAA last year, that even look like they may *play* in the majors.  Not be starters (I think Curtis could be a starter on a non-contender), but be on a 25-man roster and get into a game at some point.  So they need to stock the upper levels of the minors.  The only corner-OF I think is worth following and has played above short-season is Dan Brewer, but I think he’s only played in Charleston, and doesn’t scream “future star”.

[5] Sherman doesn’t mention that they might be able to free up some room by trading Mitre and/or Gaudin, does he? That would sneak and extra $1-$2M into there, and then you’re close enough to $6 or $7M where you’d really have to ask yourself if not adding Damon over $1-$2M is really worth it.

SG - I know we’ve talked about the value of a marginal win changing for the Yankees, so I’ll ask - is this value that you see for them as currently projected

No, I’m using the current assumed MLB average, since I don’t know how much the current economy is impacting spending, but I’m sure it’s impacting it at least somewhat.  I also wonder if marginal wins are worth a little less coming off a World Series winning season, since they’ve probably engendered a fair amount of good will amongst the fan base that would mitigate a potentially disappointing season in 2010.  Pure speculation on my part though.

FWIW, I’ve read the Yankees seem to value Damon around $6M.  So assuming they believe he is worth a similar number of wins as CAIRO projects, they’re probably feeling a win to them right now is worth about $3M.

In actuality, Damon’s worth shouldn’t necessarily be his absolute projected WAR.  It should be Damon’s WAR - TSBG + RH platoon partner’s WAR.  In that case, saying his value to them is about $3M is probably pretty close.

I would be fine not bringing Damon back; even adding $6 million would probably cause them to blow past last year’s payroll.

Damon’s WAR - TSBG + RH platoon partner’s WAR

Wouldn’t also make sense to add in the amount of time you’d expect Johnson to miss at DH, since it is non-trivial?

even adding $6 million would probably cause them to blow past last year’s payroll.

Which would result in…?

I love TSBG and I love^2 the idea of platoons and finding cheap alternatives for the OF.  I’ve been completely find with an OF of Granderson, TSBG, Swisher all offseason (well, since we got Granderson).  That being said, if the Yankees can get Damon for six million, and DON’T, then I’m a bit worried about their budget.  To the point where I will be actively rooting against them resigning Jeter next offseason.  We’ve been working under the assumption that the Yankees can afford to throw money away for the good PR.  Maybe they can’t. 

Having Damon on the team mitigates a lot of the risk on the team.  It mitigates a regression of TSBG, an injury to Nick, etc etc.

Having Damon on the team mitigates a lot of the risk on the team.  It mitigates a regression of TSBG, an injury to Nick, etc etc.

Yes but these CAIRO projections put both Damon and Gardner as average fielders.  If Gardner really is a good to great defensive OF and if Damon’s 2009 defense wasn’t a fluke but aging setting in then even the most skeptical people of defensive stats might see that 1 WAR gap closed if not turned around.

Damon does provide depth but he wouldn’t be willing to sign as a backup LF/backup DH which may be the role he fits best at this point.  Nor do I think he’d be willing to sign for backup LF/backup DH money.

Damon had the most value as a DH.  When they signed NJ his value to this team went WAY down.

Mitre signed for $850k last week.  Gaudin figures to get $2.5M or more in arbitration.  So if you’re trading somebody to free up cash, this one really isn’t an either/or.

Personally, now that I’ve given it 3 minutes thought, I think they should trade Gaudin anyway.  He can’t get lefties out to save his life.  He’d be nice SP depth if he was free and had options, but he’s not worth $3M and a major league roster spot.

.339    

CAIRO seems rather bearish on wOBA for Damon, no? Maybe I’m not mentally correcting enough for age. I see fee Fangraphs that CHONE has him at .352. I’m not comfortable enough with wOBA to say how much better that is than .339, but .330ish is about average offensively, no?

[14] - I agree on Gaudin.  Which is pretty much why the Cubs traded him to the Padres, and why the Padres traded him to the Yankees for a few bucks.  I’m curious as to why he wasn’t non-tendered.

Yes but these CAIRO projections put both Damon and Gardner as average fielders.  If Gardner really is a good to great defensive OF and if Damon’s 2009 defense wasn’t a fluke but aging setting in then even the most skeptical people of defensive stats might see that 1 WAR gap closed if not turned around.

But now you’re back to making it too much of a straight Damon vs Gardner question.  Most of Damon’s PT would come at Gardner’s expense, but some would certainly come from other players.  Granderson probably gets to skip more LHP with Damon on the team.  Teixeira’s more likely to get days completely off if he’s a little dinged up (with Johnson playing 1B and Damon DHing).  And as kronic said, he does mitigate injury risk at OF and DH (and indirectly at 1B).  So you have to compare at least part of Damon’s contribution to what the position player who gets bumped off the roster would have given you.

I’m curious as to why he wasn’t non-tendered.

The non-tender deadline was before Pettitte re-signed and before the Vazquez trade.  He was somewhere between five and eight on the starting pitcher depth chart when they had to make that decision.  He’s somewhere between seven and nine now.

Even if Damon would sign for less than his calculated value, it may be a mistake to sign him if Gardner provides almost the same value at a fraction of Damon’s cost.  That is, the Yanks or any successful team need to have some salary-controlled players who are worth far more than their cost.  Otherwise the total payroll would be too high.

As I see it, Damon would be an important signing in case of serious injury or bad performance by Johnson, Swisher, Gardy, Grandy or Teixeira.  That’s certanly possible.  The trouble is, there’s no way to predict who will need replacing.  Maybe (God forbid) Jeter or ARod will be out for the year.  Maybe Cano will miss Melky so much that he forgets how to hit. Maybe we’ll need another SP or RP.

In short, even for $6 million and a 1-year contract, I’m not sure the Yanks should sign Damon.

Otherwise the total payroll would be too high.

Not to be a stickler, but define ‘too’.

I think we sort of got into this argument about Ramiro Pena and Jerry Hairston. Obviously there’s a budget, but with a team that’s projected to contend for the WS title again, is it really a good idea to get cost conscious on a few million for some solid insurance policies? Hairston and Damon fit those bills, I think. Obviously price matters, but if we’re talking about an extra million or two for, is it that smart?

On the flip side though, it does make speculating roster construction that much more fun.  There was a time when we were all convinced that money was no object, and we would be screaming for Cashman to gobble up as many high reward types as possible. Working off a budget (admittedly the largest budget, but still) makes the roster speculation that much more interesting of a puzzle, I think.

an extra million or two for each, ...

[17] - I agree it shouldn’t be a straight Damon vs. Gardner comparison but that wasn’t the point of [13].  The point was that Damon’s best role on the Yankees is as a backup LF/backup DH.  In order to establish that I did to a straight Damon vs. Gardner comparison for the starting LF spot. 

If Damon signs a 1 year deal he is going to do it to help his value and try again in next years market.  He’s not going to want to take a role like that.  He’s going to want to be a starter.

I’m not comfortable enough with wOBA to say how much better that is than .339, but .330ish is about average offensively, no?

At the very least, FanGraphs includes SB/CS in wOBA, and that should add a few points to Damon.  Yes, .330ish is average.

To the point where I will be actively rooting against them resigning Jeter next offseason.

Really?  That’s a little harsh isn’t it?  Especially when we don’t yet know how he does this year, what it will cost for the contract, and (most importantly) who would replace him?  I think most people here would happily resign Jeter for a slight premium over a “fair market” contract, we just don’t know yet what “fair market” is, or based on how he plays how many years (def not more than three) it should be for.

Not to be a stickler, but define ‘too’.

Actually, you’re not being a stickler at all.  In the most-frequently-hypothesized scenario, the Yankees are about to spend $2M for some non-descript backup/platoon LF.  If they instead dump Gaudin and sing Damon for $6M, payroll will increase by less than $2M.

OTOH, I suppose it’s possible that the $2M they say they have left for LF IS Gaudin’s salary.

I like the Greedy Trader. If the Yankees find a way to bring him back, I would be pretty happy.

FanGraphs includes SB/CS in wOBA

And SG doesn’t? I didn’t realize that.

Mitre signed for $850k last week.  Gaudin figures to get $2.5M or more in arbitration.  So if you’re trading somebody to free up cash, this one really isn’t an either/or.

Well, I accounted for the fact that their might not be a trade partner for Gaudin (sort of unlikely) with the ‘or’ and also that the nearly $1M Mitre makes is too much when you’re (hypothetically) single digit millions away from resigning Damon. For what Mitre would give you over basically anyone on the scrap heap, I’d think you pass on the $1M. Of course, they just signed him to that contract, so what do I know.

The point was that Damon’s best role on the Yankees is as a backup LF/backup DH.

In that case, you’re just being too restrictive in assigning roles.  Like I said, a team with Damon on it can give more rest to several other players without needing to give all of those PA to someone like Jamie Hoffman (at league minimum) or Jerry Hairston (at what, $2-3M?).  Any way you slice it, that’s the comparison that needs to be made if you want to calculate what Damon is objectively worth to the Yankees.

Of course, Damon would be a nominal starter if the Yanks did re-sign him.  Mostly in LF but some at DH.  Gardner would still figure to get considerable playing time backing up all three OF spots, and most of that would be backing up Damon since he figures to need the most rest.

[23]

I can’t imagine a world where the market for Jeter is going to be “fair” in terms of the actual value he contributes.  In other words, he’s a player who’s name has always exceeded his value, even in seasons when his value has been exceptional.  Plus, older players tend to be overvalued in general, as do players with tons of ringz.  And, the Yankees “need” him for PR purposes, so they’ll be driving up the market themselves. 

The $ per WAR is going to be above average.  And like you say, any type of lengthy contract is going to come with huge caution flags.  Not to mention the question marks surrounding where on the field he will actually play.

In other words, his contract is going to be high risk with low reward.  The “best case scenerio” is that he performs close to the $$ of his contract.  The worst case is that he grossly underperforms.

And as to “who will replace him”, that’s easy:  Lee or Mauer.

the nearly $1M Mitre makes is too much when you’re (hypothetically) single digit millions away from resigning Damon

My point was simply that replacing Mitre with another pitcher making league minimum only saves you $450k, while replacing Gaudin with that hypothetical guy saves you at least $2M.

[26] Pretty sure he doesn’t.  He adds all that stuff back in when computing WAR, of course (and other base running FanGraphs doesn’t use).  That’s one of the (few) things I don’t like about a metric like wOBA or WAR.  Many different sites use metrics named wOBA or WAR, but they are computed a little differently.  Of course it is all just part of the process, and eventually there will be consensus and there will be ONE version of wOBA, ONE version of WAR, etc, and anyone that wants a “new” one will be required to come up with a new acronym.  But for now, it’s confusing!

Mauer is moving to SS?  I know Lee isn’t, seeing as he’s left-handed and all.

I’d rather keep Jeter than Mo.

The $ per WAR is going to be above average.  And like you say, any type of lengthy contract is going to come with huge caution flags.  Not to mention the question marks surrounding where on the field he will actually play.

Is this a ‘Cashman’s not filling LF in 2010 so he can leave it open for Jeter in 2011’ revival? Because I’m partial to such an idea.

[31] So that what’s SG’s version of league average wOBA? .320? .315?

“[14] - I agree on Gaudin.  Which is pretty much why the Cubs traded him to the Padres, and why the Padres traded him to the Yankees for a few bucks.  I’m curious as to why he wasn’t non-tendered. “

I think teams hold out a (not unrealistic) hope that if you could teach him a changeup to use against LHB he’d become a really nice pitcher.

[29]  I guess I’m just saying I want to reserve judgement.  We don’t yet know what Jeter’s projected 2011 looks like.  We don’t know what the market will say that is worth, and we don’t know what Jeter will ask, and what he’ll find “insulting”.  We also don’t know if those replacements will be available, or what they will cost.

Perhaps Jeter’s projections will be poor but he’ll have done enough (high average with lots of singles, but power, BB%, K% all getting worse) to demand a higher contract, and he’ll bank on his “name” being worth twice what he is.  Or perhaps instead he’ll show little decline and project fine, and he’ll only ask for a contract that is a little more than what he’s worth.

“Is this a ‘Cashman’s not filling LF in 2010 so he can leave it open for Jeter in 2011’ revival? Because I’m partial to such an idea.”

And he’s opening up SS in 2011 for…?

[29]“And, the Yankees “need” him for PR purposes, so they’ll be driving up the market themselves.” 

They DFA’s Babe Ruth and fired Yogi Berra after winning a Pennant.  The Yankees don’t need anybody for PR purposes.

And he’s opening up SS in 2011 for…?

Damn you and your rational questions.

[38] Ok, I’ll bite. Hanley Ramirez?

I actually would have expected him to grab JJ Hardy or Khalil Greene if he expected a non-Jeter SS in 2011.

I would love to see the Yankees bring Damon back on a one year deal.  I know we’re supposed to be coldly logical/analytical, but it would suck to see both Damon and Matsui—really solid Yankees who each had huge contributions in the WS—walk away and take seven-figure, one-year deals elsewhere. 

It’s cool that they’re keeping the payroll down, but one year at anything less than $10M seems fair for Damon, whom the Yankees could really use, in my opinion.  At $6-8M, well… do the Yankees really need to quibble over that amount?  I guess it worked with Pettitte last year, so good for them.

But add Damon’s bat into the mix, and that’s nine clearly above-average hitters in the lineup.  And it would seem his defensive issues would be mitigated in high-leverage situations by the presence of Gardner or whomever on the bench.  Keep in mind that Damon’s ability to hit lefties comes into play, as Granderson will need some days off against them.  And I’m frankly not sold on Gardner as an everyday big leaguer, but love him as a fourth OF.

Nady or some of the others would seem to be nice options as well.

[35] No clue, though I suspect it is closer to FanGraphs than that.  I think a basic rule of thumb is 2*SB-CS=bases-added, and you multiply that by a constant to get how many runs.  wOBA may do more like 3:1.  So in 2009 in the AL there were 1541SB and 542CS, so +457 bases(2:1) or -85 bases (3:1).  After converting to runs you probably at most have a couple-hundred runs added, or 1 or 2 for the average player.  So it probably won’t change the scale of average much.

What it does do of course, is make players who are good at stealing bases look better, by comparison.

My point was simply that replacing Mitre with another pitcher making league minimum only saves you $450k

Is this the case though? Mitre doesn’t seem slated to make the team but rather he would be an insurance policy (hopefully) spending most of his time in the minors. So there’s no reason to think his replacement would be making the major league minimum.

Nady or some of the others would seem to be nice options as well.

I think Lohud had a note that the Yankees really want to bring Nady back, but at a price that makes sense ($2M or less).  But 1) Boras is Nady’s agent and 2) Jennings mentioned that “a number of teams” were showing interest in Nady.  Of course, that says nothing for what that number are willing to pay for his services.  For those that wanted Baldelli last year, he is mentioned as an option as well.

My point was simply that replacing Mitre with another pitcher making league minimum only saves you $450k, while replacing Gaudin with that hypothetical guy saves you at least $2M.

Yeah I’m with you, I’m not sure if you see this as a disagreement. I’m just saying given what Mitre would cost (even at only $.4M above the minimum) if they’re *that* close ($1-$2M) away from signing Damon and *that* concerned about sticking to the budget, that’s an easy $.4M to recoup, because Mitre is easily replaced. But Cashman seems to like him, and he may be better further removed from TJS, so who knows.

[44] I’ll try to scoop MC…Mitre doesn’t have any options, so they would need to waive him to send him to the minors.  I also think he has enough service-time to refuse the assignment meaning he would become a FA.

If Sherman is correct that Hal refused to add the remaining portion of Cameron’s contract last season, if they aren’t going to sign someone as valuable as Damon is likely to be, I would save the remaining $2m (and any money saved by trading Gaudin and/or Mitre) to ensure that they have the ability to acquire a player for an in season contingency, rather than burn it on Reed Johnson or Hairston.

I think teams hold out a (not unrealistic) hope that if you could teach him a changeup to use against LHB he’d become a really nice pitcher.

The problem with this hope is that he already throws a changeup, and it doesn’t help him get LHB out.

The Yankees don’t need anybody for PR purposes.

The Yankees probably do figure to make a nice chunk of change off of Jeter’s 3,000th hit and whatever other milestones he subsequently reacher, unless he gets there in some other team’s uniform.  While I wouldn’t say that this equates to “needing” him for PR or any other purposes, I would say that the calculus is going to be a bit different for Jeter than it was for, say, Damon and Matsui.

[47] Seems like he is likely gone then unless they keep him in the pen I guess. Mo, probably Joba or Hughes, Marte, Robertson, Aceves, Melacon… I guess there could be a spot for him as a long man if Gaudin is traded but they have many more interesting options for the last spot in the pen imo.

Be prepared for Jeter to make $18-$20M AAV for 3-4 years.  It’s no IF Jeter gets signed. It’s when.  MC is right.  Jeter is not Damon or Matsui.

[51] That could be a conservative estimate.

I want nothing to do with Damon!  I want Bedard instead.  If the Yankees are going to bring in a player as insurance then give me a potential elite starting pitcher. If he is not needed to start he can still bring value to the team by pitching well out of the pen.  I think I would rather protect the starters in case of injury instead of the position players.

SG how valuable could Bedard be if he just pitched 40 or so innings out the pen?  Imo for the same money Bedard on a prorated incentive laden deal plus a team option could bring a lot more value to the team then Damon.

If I could have Bedard I would go with an entire rookie bench of Cervelli, Pena, Russo Hoffmann to keep under budget.

Pitching wins!

Mitre doesn’t seem slated to make the team but rather he would be an insurance policy (hopefully) spending most of his time in the minors.

He’s out of options, so he’s probably either on the major league roster or in another organization.  We all might think that he’s a steaming pile of suck, but it would be pretty surprising if he cleared waivers.  And AFAICT his contract is a guaranteed major league deal, so he gets the money either way.

So there’s no reason to think his replacement would be making the major league minimum.

This doesn’t make any sense.  Somebody is going to be the last pitcher on the staff.  That pitcher (or pitchers) is going to make at least the major league minimum (while in the major leagues).  Even if Mitre’s replacement(s) are riding the shuttle back and forth to SWB, it still adds up to one MLB minimum contract.  So the greatest possible salary delta between Mitre and his replacement is $850k - the league minimum.  And how do you figure that they’d save any money by paying Mitre to pitch in the minors while paying somebody else to pitch in the majors?

I guess there could be a spot for him as a long man if Gaudin is traded but they have many more interesting options for the last spot in the pen imo.

If I understand correctly, the contract is not guaranteed, so they’re not on the hook for (much) of it if they cut him.  Chances are, he’s in ST to earn a spot if someone else fails to.  E.g. Pettitte on DL out of ST, Hughes into rotation, maybe Aceves is also hurt now Mitre is the long-man.  Or if he looks good and they get a nice offer for Aceves or something.

On a slow day, some people may get a kick out of this. Totally off topic:

http://www.runleiarun.com/lebowski/

I want nothing to do with Damon!  I want Bedard instead.  If the Yankees are going to bring in a player as insurance then give me a potential elite starting pitcher. If he is not needed to start he can still bring value to the team by pitching well out of the pen.  I think I would rather protect the starters in case of injury instead of the position players.

Does it really make any sense to offer up this kind of suggestion?

Signing Damon to play LF and DH is entirely plausible.

Signing Bedard to pitch 40 relief innings is just not going to happen.

[47] I think you’re half right.  Mitre is a bit short of five years service time, and I don’t think he’s been outrighted to the minors before.  He signed a split contract last year, so he wasn’t on the 40-man roster and his starting the year in AAA doesn’t count as an outright assignment.  Pretty sure that if he cleared waivers he’d have to go where the Yankees sent him.

Yeah I’m with you, I’m not sure if you see this as a disagreement.

Nope.  Just wasn’t sure if you did.

... go where the Yankees sent him.

But he’d still make the $850K. I don’t mind having Mitre on the team, he’s nice depth. I was more or less scheming to save some money to sign Damon. I’d find it tough to swallow if, say, Damon wanted $6M/year and they could only come up with $4.0M (the reported $2M they have and $2.5M from trading Gaudin minus his replacement making $.5M) and Cashman saying that they couldn’t bridge the gap.

If there’s a choice of only one between Jeter and Mo, take Jeter.  He should have several good years left.  Mo on the other hand has to slow down soon.  Doesn’t he?

Doesn’t he?

Doesn’t he…...

[59] Well if it really came to that, my guess would be that Cashman just didn’t want Damon at any price and was spinning it as being a budget thing instead of dissing Johnny in public.

[60] I am the Lord thy Mo.  Thou shalt not have false Mo’s before me.

[60] Does Rivera needed to be mowing down guys at 10 K/9 and 1.5 ERA to be effective? Probably not. I’d think Jeter is closer to falling off a cliff than Rivera, if only because the height of the cliff is way different, if that makes any sense. I’m also not sure what this tidbit injects into the decision to pick one. They will both obviously be around until they retire.

Hmm.. I should rephrase. I’d think Jeter falling off a clif would be *worse* than Mo, because Mo can still be effective with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.3 WHIP. Jeter would be tough to stomach with a .700 OPS and below average defense.

[63] - How many more MPH can Mo drop off his fastball and still be effective?  He can’t get creative with his pitch selection and fool hitters that way. 

On the flip side even in 2008 in his down year that caused everyone to panic Jeter was no where near a .700 OPS hitter.

This doesn’t make any sense.  Somebody is going to be the last pitcher on the staff.  That pitcher (or pitchers) is going to make at least the major league minimum (while in the major leagues).  Even if Mitre’s replacement(s) are riding the shuttle back and forth to SWB, it still adds up to one MLB minimum contract.  So the greatest possible salary delta between Mitre and his replacement is $850k - the league minimum.  And how do you figure that they’d save any money by paying Mitre to pitch in the minors while paying somebody else to pitch in the majors?

You are missing the point entirely. Of course someone is going to be the last pitcher on the staff. How his salary compares to Mitre’s is only relevant if you believe Mitre would be on the major league team for much of the season if he isn’t traded which I view as rather unlikely(barring an unfortunate number of injuries.) His “replacement” if he is traded is another minor league insurance policy who doesn’t need to make the league minimum except when called up.

The Yankees should tell Jeter and Mo that they will be paid market price (or even slightly above that) in terms of AAV, but that they have to hold the line on the number of years.

The Yankees have done as much for them (if not more*) than they have done for the Yankees. It’s not unreasonable to ask both to leave something on the negotiating table at this late stage of their respective careers.

* drafted them, developed them, surrounded them with other greater players, and in Mo’s case, stood by him when he had surgery and made the decision to convert him into a reliever

[65] How many more MPH can Mo drop off his fastball and still be effective? He can’t get creative with his pitch selection and fool hitters that way. 

You seem sure about this. Why?

On the flip side even in 2008 in his down year that caused everyone to panic Jeter was no where near a .700 OPS hitter.

I would love to freeze Jeter’s ability in time and say that 2008 was the absolute rock bottom we can expect over what will be the likely length of his next contract.  I think they had some machine like this on Star Trek. Definitely worth looking into.

[66] I think what he is getting at is conservation of roster space. The maximum cost is if Mitre stays on the roster all year - that’s $850K. The minimum cost is if Mitre is replaced by anyway (because the roster will be filled) and that persons minimum salary is, what, $450k (using round numbers)? So the maximum you can save is $400k.

Unless you think they’d go with a 24 man roster?

How many more MPH can Mo drop off his fastball and still be effective?

20? But really, I would be surprised if Mo ever goes below 85, and not just because he is Mo. Velocity drops pretty slowly from what I can tell, excepting injuries.

[69] Is what I’m saying really that hard to understand? I understand fully what MC is saying. I was explaining why it’s irrelevant. Of course there will be a last pitcher on the roster. What does that have to do with Mitre unless you believe he WILL be that 25th man? Barring a bunch of injuries or the team really liking the idea of him in the pen he will be spending most of the season in the minors.

The Yankees should tell Jeter and Mo that they will be paid market price (or even slightly above that) in terms of AAV, but that they have to hold the line on the number of years.

My guess is that Jeter will be more amenable to the exact opposite, which is to say that he’d rather trade off some AAV for more years. I think he’ll interpret a short contract as a bigger insult than a substantial pay cut (although he probably won’t like either, but we’re talking matters of degree), and I think it would specifically stick in his craw that Alex is signed through the end of time and he’s only being offered 3 (or whatever) years.

Just a guess, obviously.

[72] If so, maybe they can front load the contract to compensate for any declining production in the latter years.

[66] You’re the one who’s missing the point.  You’re imagining that there is some magical creation or saving of money when you option one pitcher and recall another.  Whatever collection of replacements you use to fill the last spot on the staff will combine to cost you at least the MLB minimum, because they will combine to spend the entire season on the active roster.  Therefore, dumping Mitre can’t save you more than the difference between his salary and the MLB minimum.  Of course, keeping Mitre could end up costing you more than the just his $850k, assuming that it is all guaranteed and further assuming that he isn’t on the active roster all year (IOW, you keep him but still need to replace him).

Note that this is not an argument for keeping Mitre on either the 40-man or 25-man rosters.  I’d be pretty happy to trade him and Gaudin both.  Not because I think you can ever have too much pitching, but just because I don’t think they’re all that useful.  Also note that I suspect the whole thing is moot, because Mitre will either get injured during ST or get claimed when the Yankees try to waive him and stash him at AAA.

I would love to freeze Jeter’s ability in time and say that 2008 was the absolute rock bottom we can expect over what will be the likely length of his next contract.  I think they had some machine like this on Star Trek. Definitely worth looking into.

And if he didn’t bounce back in 2009 it would be more of a concern, but he did. 

Regardless, he’s a position player and MO is a reliever.  We’re not talking apples here.  Mo is already very far behind Jeter in value to begin with.  Mo in his best years would struggle to be worth as much as Jeter in 2008.

Therefore, dumping Mitre can’t save you more than the difference between his salary and the MLB minimum.  Of course, keeping Mitre could end up costing you more than the just his $850k, assuming that it is all guaranteed and further assuming that he isn’t on the active roster all year (IOW, you keep him but still need to replace him).

These two sentences are contradictory and exactly the point I’m making.

I understand fully what MC is saying.

No you don’t.  You think you do, but you really don’t.  You think they’re spedning $850k for a guy who’s going to be in AAA most of the year, but it is literally impossible for Mitre to spend most of the season in SWB (although it theoretically is possible for him to spend the entire season in AAA, either in the Yankee organization or someone else’s).  I’d suggest you brush up on the roster rules to see just how unlikely it is that Mitre spends most of his season in the Yankees’ minor league system.

Say the Yankees did get him through waivers at the end of ST.  They’d remove him from the 40-man roster and send him to AAA.  If they needed to bring him back up due to injuries, they’d have to add him to the 40-man again.  When they didn’t need him anymore, he’d be out of the organization for sure even if he cleared waivers again, because you cannot be outrighted to the minors more than once without your consent.

This is why I don’t see the use of guys like him and Gaudin.  Evn if they do offer marginally more performance certainty as 6/7/8 starters, the lack of flexibility isn’t worth it.

These two sentences are contradictory…

No they’re not.

Mitre is going to make $850,000 whether he is in the majors or not, and that salary is going to count against the Yankees payroll whether he’s in the majors or not.  Sending him to the minors—if he clears waivers—isn’t a savings.

Velocity drops pretty slowly from what I can tell, excepting injuries.

There is a Kenny Powers on the phone for you, Tree…

[79] Mike K said that he thought he saw something to the effect that it’s a split contract.  I thought it was guaranteed, but maybe not.

[76] Except it’s not at all the point you’re making. If the $850K is guaranteed, then stashing him in the minors like you said in [71] is exactly the scenario that ends up boosting the cost of the last pitcher as MC described in [74]. And it’s all contingent on him clearing waivers, which isn’t the most likely thing. Which means the biggest savings is getting rid of him before the season. Which means the most you can save is $850K - leagueminimum.

/HEADASPLODE

[81] I thought I read that it was a major league deal.  A cursory google did not reveal the answer, though there are also “incentives”—depending what these are, perhaps it’s somewhat more of a savings to get rid of him than we’ve been assuming.

Kenny Powers

Google tells me you are being silly or had a name mixup, but in the interest of full disclosure I don’t what I am talking about.

“there are also “incentives”—depending what these are, perhaps it’s somewhat more of a savings to get rid of him than we’ve been assuming”

If he’s hitting his incentives, that means the team can let someone else go instead.

Jesus.
Ok, one last time. IF MITRE IS IN THE MINORS YOU STILL NEED TO PAY THE 25TH MAN THE LEAGUE MINUMUM. The minimum savings is only 850k - league minimum IF Mitre is on the major league roster the entire season which I really, really doubt will be the case. Therefore trading Mitre and replacing him with what he is, a minor league insurance policy against multiple injuries to our starting rotation, has NOTHING WHATSOEVER to do with what you will pay the 25th man on the major league roster.

Sending him to the minors—if he clears waivers—isn’t a savings

It could be, maybe. Obviously, if they keep him around, even if he clears waivers and is stashed in the minors, they do HAVE to pay him. However, we don’t really know how they determine what counts towards the “payroll budget” and what doesn’t. If they are only counting players on the 25 man roster or 40 man roster, then stashing him in the minors saves money from that total (maybe Mitre’s salary is then part of the “development budget” which could be unlimited or have funds available for all we know).

Granted, that is just an accounting trick to stay “under budget”.

We also don’t know if they are using actual salaries or AAV for what is counting towards this year’s payroll. Or if they do only have $2M left or they are just saying that to talk Damon/Nady/Whoever down to a lower salary.

Kenny Powers

Google tells me you are being silly or had a name mixup, but in the interest of full disclosure I don’t what I am talking about.

Eastbound & Down. Comedy on HBO about a John Rocker-esque closer who has fallen from grace. I thoroughly enjoy it, but admittedly it’s not for everyone.

[85]  I could imagine him getting maybe $400K for hitting 90-100 innings; but maybe $200K if he winds up in the minors all season.  I’m not sure teams do deals like this but it makes a little sense—more $ to compensate for being in minors, plus an ambitious ML incentive.

[86]
MC, jyjjv is entirely right.  Except that it’s actually 850+luxury tax - $MLmin + luxury tax.

Actually if he get’s traded or claimed on waivers the saving would be;
850k - (minor league minimum pro-rated to the amount of time Mitre would have actually spent on the 25 man) + luxury tax

[87]: That’s what I saw on google, but I can’t keep Kenny Lofton and Kenny Rogers straight, so Kenny Powers is totally believable.

[90]
Not the situation being described there, but for your situation, you’re absolutely correct.

MC may be presuming that Mitre is currently unavoidably occupying a ML roster spot, but, given what’s been written here, is that really certain?
And if the point of dealing him would be to potentially save salary for Damon - well, then, that’s the roster spot right there (obviously, you’ve changed the pitcher-to-position-player balance if you do that).

[93] But then if you add Damon you get rid of Hoffman.

[94]
But if you then get rid of Hoffman and add a last-pitcher-on-the-staff at ML-min, then you’ve restored the situation presented.

[31] So that what’s SG’s version of league average wOBA? .320? .315?

It’s about the same as league average OBP, I think .332 for 2010.

SG how valuable could Bedard be if he just pitched 40 or so innings out the pen?  Imo for the same money Bedard on a prorated incentive laden deal plus a team option could bring a lot more value to the team then Damon.

Erik Bedard(RP): 40 IP, 31 H, 4 HR, 14 BB, 48 K, 2.82 ERA, 10.2 runs saved above replacement level

[95]  Sorry to confuse, I was only addressing the position/pitcher situation, not the salary.

[97]
Ah, then - right!  Yes.  Point made (and taken).

perhaps cash should take a peek at this brandon jones character the braves just dumped

We’re not talking apples here.  Mo is already very far behind Jeter in value to begin with.  Mo in his best years would struggle to be worth as much as Jeter in 2008.

I’m not sure why you are recognizing that comparing a position player and a pitcher isn’t an apt comparison, and then you compare them in true value terms.

Let’s get back to the beginning. You said:

I’d rather keep Jeter than Mo.

Keeping Jeter and/or Rivera implies that you are going to offer a contract to the one you want to keep that is consistent with what their demands likely are. You aren’t signing Rivera or Jeter to play SS, nor are you signing Jeter or Rivera to be the closer.

If you sign Rivera and he tanks, you probably are left with an effective reliever.

If you sign Jeter and he tanks, you probably are left with a guy who shouldn’t be playing at all (assuming he’s pidgeon-holed into SS.)

The fact that he ‘recovered in 2009’ doesn’t change the fact that Jeter is 36 and the ‘cliff’ associated with his skillset and position is well established.

Everything of course depends on the contract length and AAV, but to me, it’s pretty clear than the higher risk resides with what Jeter and his demands will be.