Tuesday, August 14, 2007
WWWW & WWWMW™What's Wrong with Wang?
Update: Here's a break-down of the stats in Wang's starts, splitting between quality starts (at least 6 innings, no more than 3 runs allowed) and non quality starts.
Stk% : Strike percentage
FB% : Fly ball percentage
GB% : Ground ball percentage
LD% : Line drive percentage
FIP : Fielding Independent Pitching
xFIP : Expected Fielding Independent Pitching
HR/FB : HR per fly ball (league average is around 11%)
RS : Runs saved above average
BABIP : Batting average on balls in play
TBF : Total batters faced
His peripherals stats are basically the same. GB%, LD%, Stk%. His BABIP has shot up from .275 to .356, which is abnormally high. He should be fine.
And yes, it's What's Wrong With Mariano Week™. The worst time of the year to be a Yankee fan, although they've managed to win both games where Mariano gave up a run anyway. It happens every year, although I thought we got it out of the way in April. I blame myself for writing about how great Mo has been lately, and I apologize. I shouldn't have to tell you that Mo will be fine, I think you know this.
Great win last night, 7-6 over the Orioles. If there's a more exciting play than a walk-off fielder's choice, I wouldn't know it.
I could not have been more wrong about Joba being added to the Yankee pen, and I'm ecstatic about it. What a bad-ass.
I'm still trying to figure out the best way to integrate the different pieces on the Yankee roster into the lineup but I'm having major issues at work so it may take a few more days to get posted.
I tell you what is wrong with Wang.
that awful scab on his finger. He has been picking at it for a month now. Watch closely… I could have told you last night he was going to struggle because he was picking at it in the dugout before he ever threw a pitch.
It is obviously causing a problem, but much like “Beckett’s Blister”, you’ll never hear the Yankees actually admit there is a problem publicly.
He needs to miss a start or two. Given his recent performances, would it really hurt that much to have him heal up a little instead of watching him pitch five innings of bad baseball?
i don’t think Wang’s struggles are some flukey BABIP volatility.
yes, i see the line drive percentages, i see the FIP, but he was getting hit hard last night.
he’s been getting hit pretty hard for a while, with the exception of the one KC game.
i was watching the scoreboard where they put up the name of the pitch last night. i know they don’t really have a name for his “sinker”, but it still seemed like he was throwing tons of sliders and change-ups.
i really think he needs to revert to throwing 90% sinkers UNTIL he gets to a situation where he needs a K. he was just so much more efficient last year. even in his good starts this year, he’s not pitching as deep into games.
last year he pitched at least 7 innings in 18 of 33 starts. this year it’s been 9 of 22 starts.
something seems wrong.
I agree, I think Wang’s finger is bothering him.
Honestly, the splits don’t make sense to me, because it seems like he has been getting hit harder and not getting as many grounders, but the numbers disagree. I expected his LD% to be way up and his GB% to be down.
I think, and I’m not faulting anyone for this because it’s the exact same thing for me, that maybe when Wang is giving up hits and runs, we perceive him as pitching worse (giving up more line-drives, etc.) simply because of the outcome. When those line-drives are atom balls and the grounders get sucked up by the three competant members of the infield, he just looks better.
Even last night, when he didn’t pitch well by any means (although I don’t think he was as bad as his line—thanks Villone) he still had a bunch of ground outs.
i don’t know, he also had a lot of at’em balls last night. Betemit caught one. Melky caught a sinking liner.
last year Wang was getting WEAK ground balls. anyone watching the games could see it wasn’t a DIPS fluke year. comebackers topped weakly in front of the plate. i haven’t been seeing that for months.
and yeah, i think the fingernail is a big part of it. the other part of it is his pitch selection. but maybe it hurts to throw the sinker. that would explain a lot.
Rest in Peace Scooter! I hope they have cannoli in heaven.
Rizzuto’s moved on. Sad news.
Joba’s success will give Cashman a bit of leverage when it’s time to resign mo. He’ll be able to bluff and say that Joba could be an alternative to closing.
Jobaís success will give Cashman a bit of leverage when itís time to resign mo. Heíll be able to bluff and say that Joba could be an alternative to closing.
I think that Wang has a health issue, very possibly the finger. It might be smart to set him down for a couple of starts. That would almost necessitate Kennedy coming up, particularly if Karstens struggles. The team needs Wang at his best, and this isn’t a good time to be having issues. Kennedy’s start last night was ok, but not great, so he isn’t a cinch to be another overnight sucess, however at some point the team may simply roll the dice once again. I saw Wang in KC on July 24 and he was very lucky to get a win. He did better against them in NY, but other than the NY start, he’s trending the wrong way.
I too was wrong about putting Joba in the pen. The only possible downside, as long as he remains healthy, is if it convinces any of the Yankee decision makers to leave him in the pen. That would be really dumb.
Kronic, I wouldn’t be in favor of negotiation hardball with Mo. He’s just too important to the karma of the franchise. And wasn’t his last contract or extension at below market/hometown discount?
I am curious to see how many years they give him. 3 seems sensible—he seems like the kind of guy who doesn’t NEED to hang around longer than he can be at the top of his game. Perfectly happy to go back to Panama and spread the gospel of the Lord.
I wouldn’t give Mariano more than two years.
agree w/ rich. it’s not the money, it’s the years.
2 years, $24 million should be enough for Mo. He’s never looked for a long deal, I think his last two contracts were 2 year deals. He doesn’t strike me as the type who’ll hang around once he loses effectiveness, and I’d love to have him around to tutor some of the young arms coming up, especially the ones that will be shifting to the pen.
Also, he’s said he wants to pitch in the new Yankee Stadium, so a two year deal gives him that chance.
Seattle doesn’t yet showing signs of fading away after a shutout by the bad Weaver and then defeating Santana last night.
they will re-sign Mo. i’m not worried about it.
all the bad feelings from earlier in the season seem to have gone away.
amazing what winning does for “chemistry”.
not saying he’ll give them a discount, he won’t, but i’d be SHOCKED if he isn’t back.
he wants to resign here-that’s 80% of the battle-it will happen
According to fangraphs, overall this year Wang’s GB% is down while his FB% and LD% are up. That possibly coorelates with an increase in BAPIP for this year as well.
He just does not seem to be the same pitcher this year as last year, effective, but not quite the same.
I’m worried that tonight’s game could get ugly. Mo likely won’t pitch. Joba definitely won’t pitch. That leaves L-Viz as the only “trusted” reliever, so Joe will save hime for the 9th—maybe the 8th and 9th. If Karstens gets knocked around early we’ll see a lot of Brower, Villone and Farnsworth. That doesn’t sound good.
It’s not often that I’d hope for a pitcher to work to an ERA of 9.00, but if Karstens can go 5 innings, and allow “only” 5 runs, I’d be pretty happy. The yanks should be able to do similar damage to Cabrera. Then we can go to B-V-F-V to close out a 10-9 win (wishful thinking).
I’m with you john, don’t like the chances tonite unless the offense goes wild. The pitching (starting and bullpen) appears to be lacking which means the O’s will post runs. The fact that the O’s came into town riding high after big weekend comeback wins underscores just how tough they are right now. To beat them last night was huge. I think that a split will be lucky of the remaining two games. I particularly dislike those matinee games like tommorrow, but understand why they do them. Looking at the schedule earlier really reinforced my opinion that by the end of the month we will know if the team is the real thing or a near miss for the postseason. I hate those west coast games with Anaheim. You stay up late and even if you win you are keyed and can’t get to sleep. It’s even worse when they lose- and I live in the central time zone. It would be worse for most of the readers on the east coast.
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