Wow, I had no recollection of Tino even having a bad year in 2000, let alone -21 BRAA.

Could that be in part due to a fluctuation in the other 1Bs in 2000?  How do the surrounding years compare?

Amazing that the ‘39 Yanks replaced Gehrig with Dahlgren and still won 106 games.

I remember Tino sucking in 2000.  There was a reason they were so determined to sign Giambi.  Massive, massive upgrade.

Yeah, Pepitone wasn’t much of a hitter(career OBP of .301), but I defy you to find a 1B with a better head of hair than

I’m impressed that Joe can make this list with a 28 HR, 100 RBI season.  He even made the All-Star team in 1964.

My recollection of Pepitone was that he was a good player because he hit a lot of homers, that he was famously the first member of the Yankees to own a hair dryer and that when he spent time in jail after his playing days were over the Yankees brought him in as a coach on a work release program. 

We didn’t know anything about OBP and the value of walks in those days.

Could that be in part due to a fluctuation in the other 1Bs in 2000?  How do the surrounding years compare?

AL 1B, 1997-2003

1997: .283/.369/.506, BR/650: 100
1998: .286/.359/.492, BR/650: 94
1999: .279/.362/.481, BR/650: 93
2000: .291/.383/.501, BR/650: 103
2001: .286/.371/.497, BR/650: 98
2002: .279/.364/.480, BR/650: 94
2003: .272/.358/.458, BR/650: 88

Definitely a non-trivial spike in AL 1B offense in 2000, which makes Tino look worse.  He’d have been closer to -11 in 1999, -16 in 2001.

there is a large disconnect between how we remember Tino and how good he actually was.

also, outside of a few memorable AB’s, he was a horrific postseason player.  things like that get overlooked when you have the pitching to win anyway.

Where is Miguel Cairo?

Wasn’t his “enthusiasm” worth at least 10 BRAA?

Miguel Cairo was so good he broke my spreadsheet, so I had to remove him.

The best .237 hitter you’ll ever see…

Could that be in part due to a fluctuation in the other 1Bs in 2000?  How do the surrounding years compare?

This was also my first thought.

How do these types of analysis normally make the positional adjustment? One of the things that occurred to me was that I think it is incorrect to simply compare against the current season’s positional average. Some years you may just have more good players at a position than other years. That may make a player relatively less valuable, but it doesn’t make him less valuable in any absolute sense, which is what you are really looking for when comparing across multiple seasons.

Look at it this way. In any given offensive environment, providing a certain number of runs (above zero) always provides the same value. It doesn’t matter if other players at a particular position provided relatively more runs, because the overall offensive environment was the same. All that means is that some value has shifted to that particular position from other positions. That may make a player less valuable relative to his positional peers, but it doesn’t make him less valuable in terms of the number of wins he helps create.

Now maybe you want to capture his value relative to his peers. Certainly you want to do this in a general sense: a positional adjustment is obviously necessary. However, it’s entirely possible for a position to have a fluke year where the demands of playing the position haven’t changed, but more guys are performing there. I don’t think you want to penalize a player for that when making comparisons across years.

So what’s the correct way to do a positional adjustment? I think the argument can be made that the best way to do that would be to determine how far above or below the league average an average player performs at a particular position over the period of many years. For example, an average first baseman might perform 15% above the league average over a period of ten years. This then would be the proper baseline in any given year. It would be entirely possible for a whole group of players to be well above average in any given year.

Now it’s still possible that a player could have the same statistics and drop in value, but that would only occur if the league offensive level rose as a whole, not just at a position. If the league offensive level remained constant, but offense at one position rose, then that position as a whole would be above average. I think this would make for better cross-year comparisons.

Another thing that might help would be using median performance instead of mean performance at a position so that a couple of really great (or terrible) performances in a given year don’t make it seem like the positional baseline has moved.

I have no idea if any of this is correct or not nor if it would help Tino (not that that’s my goal), but it is some food for though.

Seems like a “park-factor” like adjustment might make sense for positional adjustment.  Three years or so of data should smooth out most of the spikes while still giving you current data.

How do these types of analysis normally make the positional adjustment? One of the things that occurred to me was that I think it is incorrect to simply compare against the current season’s positional average.

Crap, that’s what I’ve been doing.  I am treating each season as its own separate entity.

I think you do have a point John. It may make more sense to use some kind of rolling positional adjustment, something like 1/2/3/2/1 (where year n = 3, years n-1 & n+1 = 2, and n-2 & n=3 = 1) instead of doing it single season the way I’m doing it now.

Another thing that might help would be using median performance instead of mean performance at a position so that a couple of really great (or terrible) performances in a given year don’t make it seem like the positional baseline has moved.

This also makes sense, especially when you have outliers like Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig bringing up the average considerably in many seasons.

AL 1B, 1997-2003

SG, can you post the same numbers for 2004-2008?

i know it’s never good to boil down a complex set of factors to a single point, but this HAS to be steroids, no?

Or maybe Giambi’s 2000 season?  That was a monster, wasn’t it?

How does Dougie M. not make this list?!

i’d guess he didn’t play enough.

then again, he actually wasn’t bad.  if both he and Giambi stayed healthy in 2007, that combo probably could have worked out pretty nicely.

How does Dougie M. not make this list?!

I’m sure lack of playing time.  He *did* get a broken-wrist pretty early in the season.

John, if you go over to FanGraphs and look through their archives, David Cameron has a whole series where he describes how they came up with Value Wins.  One of the articles goes in depth for the positional adjustments.  It’s pretty much what you are talking about; basically the idea is they determine the league-average wOBA (somewhere in there is a park-adjustment as well), and compare to a players wOBA to get runs above average.  Then they add in value above replacement (*basically* 20 runs adjusted for playing-time, but it may be a little more complex), defensive value (UZR runs), and then a positional adjustment, pro-rated based on playing-time at various positions I believe.  E.g. a first basement is -12.5 runs, a DH -17.5 runs.  That gives value-runs, and then they convert that to wins using an appropriate factor (roughly 10 runs per win, but that number differs slightly based on the run-environment).

Anyway, I’d urge you to read that series, I think it’s exactly what you are looking for.  Unfortunately, it only goes back as far as 2002.

SG, can you post the same numbers for 2004-2008?

2004-2008 AL 1B

2004: .266/.347.450, BR/650:83
2005: .271/.343.457, BR/650:84
2006: .280/.352.467, BR/650:88
2007: .267/.348.443, BR/650:82
2008: .266/.346.447, BR/650:82

How does Dougie M. not make this list?!
I didn’t feel like typing his name out so I removed him. 

Actually, he was decent in his lone Yankee season, OPS+ of 107.

Mike,

Thanks for the tip. I will definitely try to check that out.

Wow. I saw the article title, then a spread of Gehrig and Mantle, and got genuinely confused for a second as to how those two combined for the 10 worst offensive 1B seasons… oops

I defy you to find a 1B with a better head of hair than this.

First major leaguer to have a hair dryer in the locker room

First base is typically the highest offensive position on the diamond, but in the Yankees’ case that’s often not been the case.

Aren’t you doing a positional adjustment on the BRAA?  Doesn’t that sort of take care of the offensive skew of 1B?

Aren’t you doing a positional adjustment on the BRAA?
Yes.

Doesn’t that sort of take care of the offensive skew of 1B?
Yes.

I’ll blame it on an early morning brain fart.

What’s with all the anti-Jeter stuff lately?  He has one off year (really an off 1st half) when he has an injured hand and all of a sudden he is done?

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=3889040&name=Neyer_Rob

SG, I think components that would make it interesting is identifying who were the mlb/al worst, the mlb/al average, & mlb/al best. only if it’s simple to do, of course. or just any of the 3 or 6 would be nice.

alternatively, is it something that can be inferred from OPS+?

What’s with all the anti-Jeter stuff lately?  He has one off year (really an off 1st half) when he has an injured hand and all of a sudden he is done?

This question has been going on for a while now.  I remember railing against it earlier here.  It’s just MUCH too early to speculate I think, for how much/how many years/what position Jeter should play in 2011, what Jeter would want, etc.  There are just too many unknowns. 

I guess it is a combination of Yankees’s recent spending (if they spend that much on Tex, what will Jeter get??!!), and ARod hasn’t done anything newsworthy for a few days.  But it’s really too early for us to speculate about Jeter’s future (Cashman I’m sure is, even if he says he isn’t).

I agree with you on that but honestly the Neyer article went a bit further.

I also believe the Yankees will try to keep him in the fold, perhaps with a $10 million salary (chump change for them) and the vague promise of semi-regular playing time as a sort of utility player. And my guess is that he’ll accept. Because given his obviously diminishing skills, it’s likely to be the best offer he gets. By a lot.

Jeter (according to UZR) had an average defensive season last year and has really only been bad (costing the Yankees more than .5 wins on defense) 2 out of the last 7 seasons.  I understand the question about if he will be able to play well enough to justify his salary but to say he is going to be nothing more than a utility infielder in 2011?  That’s a little much.  He might not be an all star player anymore but he is definitely going to be good enough to hold down a starting job.

LF or DH is what it is going to come down to. He can’t hit enough to be great at either, so it really doesn’t matter. If his defense is passable in LF, it makes the roster construction easier.

but to say he is going to be nothing more than a utility infielder in 2011?

Yeah, Neyer’s conclusions were a little strong.  It is entirely possible that Jeter will no longer be a regular; I doubt a “utility player” per-se, but if for example Garrison Lassiter progresses enough (doubtful, one of the reasons Jeter will still be a starter in 2011), I could see Jeter starting at SS against lefties, and DH’ing most of the rest of the time. 

But again, it is too much of an unknown.  Jeter could fall off a cliff (ala Alomar) and decide to retire before it gets really embarassing.  Or he could be a rare player who doesn’t start to seriously decline - if last year was a result of injuries he could bounce back, with the caveat at his age he’ll be injured more - that he could still be an effective SS until the age of 38/39.  Or anywhere in between.  Then there are the unknown’s about who will replace Jeter at SS…

He can’t hit enough to be great at either, so it really doesn’t matter.

Not sure if that is true.  Depends on what his “true talent level” is, right?  His .771 OPS last year would have been 7 of 9 among qualifying LF in the AL, so not good.  However, his .840 in 2007 would have been good for third.  So is he now .771 and falling?  Or was last year a fluke and he *should* have been closer to .830 and maybe falling slowly? 

DH is similar; there are fewer people with significant AB’s, but if I limit it to > 300, his OPS last year would have ranked 6 of 8; the 2007 OPS would have ranked 4th.

Then of course there is also the question of if he is playing a less demanding position, can he increase his offense at all?  Would be a good study to look at players who went from challenging defensive positions to not challenging ones - Paul Molitor became a full time DH at the age of 34, and in the next 4 seasons had 4 of his 5 highest OPS+ years.

The one question with Jeter is this: last year, he essentially became a league average offensive player. So, this year will answer some questions on whether he continues to decline, at something like Bernie’s pace, in which case, Neyer would be right.

If he can be back at something like 2007 levels, he is still an elite player if he is slightly below average defensive shortstop.

What worries me is his drop in doubles power last year. His HR power has declined, and sort of steadied around 10/11. His doubles declined from 39 to 25, which explains most of the .408 SLG.

His BABIP was slightly lower than his usual levels last year, so he may have been slightly unlucky last year. We will see.

But there are absolutely reasons to be worried about Derek Jeter and how his time will evolve.

How does every thread, even one about first basemen, manage to turn into “What to do with Jeter?” Same discussion every time.

Anyway…

1B SLG% has plummeted over the last decade. I was thinking the same as yup in #15…did something happen after 2002?

As I recall, Derek Jeter was the most valuable SS in the AL last year when offense and defense were both taken into account.  You have to think the Yankees would at least wait for him to fall into the bottom half before thinking about moving him.

As I recall, Derek Jeter was the most valuable SS in the AL last year when offense and defense were both taken into account.

Of course, the AL is very weak at SS, relative to the NL. We shouldn’t ignore that. The talent pool is larger than just the AL.

Of course, the AL is very weak at SS, relative to the NL. We shouldn’t ignore that. The talent pool is larger than just the AL.

Yeah, but until someone better comes along, Jeter is still the best option for SS, maybe even LF, and DH for a whiles.

What to do with Jeter?  Here’s an idea—play him at SS until his contract is up, then figure out how much he’s got left in the tank and act accordingly.

The reason it gets talked about is that he had a down year (with the bat, anyway) and he’s now in his mid-thirties.  Oh, and he’s Derek Jeter.

Have a good weekend, all.

So is he now .771 and falling?  Or was last year a fluke and he *should* have been closer to .830 and maybe falling slowly?

Exactly.  This is the key.  Based on his 2nd half I’d say he closer to the .830 and falling than the .771 and falling. 

His defense is the other half of this.  He worked out to improve his mobility and was able to return to a league average defender in 2008.  Let’s see if it was a fluke or wait to see him throw up 2 really bad defensive seasons in a row before we say he can’t be an acceptable starting SS.

It seems Neyer and others are taking the worst case for his defense and the worst case of his offense and assuming he will decline sharply from that in order to say Jeter can’t be a staring SS.

It certainly is possible he pulls a Bernie but it is also very possible he will be AT LEAST a league average SS in 2011.

And oh yeah, BTW, Tino sucked in 2000.  His OPS+ was 89.  You don’t need to tweak your positional adjustments to know that’s bad.

Hey about Mattingly, it’s interesting how he retool his game to boost his OBP during the last few years. It looks like he also struck out at a higher rate too.

From what I hear about OBP and the ability to be taught it and so forth, it’s… I don’t know what to say, but he’s still a favorite.

Connecting it to Jeter, the organization was pretty loyal to Mattingly for a couple of years, some of it which kinda paid off. If Jeter’s offense dives a bit, I still would want a place for him, as long as upgrades could be had around him.

IIRC, Mattingly signed a long-term contract when he was still good, and retired when it was up.  I don’t remember any particular loyalty from the team, and least in terms of contract extensions or a new long-term deal after he was already done in by the back and wrist injuries.

I think Pepitone wore a rug regardless as to how he dried it.

Mattingly was not overly embraced his final year by the front office. It was apparent that the team wasn’t satisfied with the power output at first base that was missing.  As soon as he retired they were very supportive and reached out to him. This was a year later btw.  I think besides family issues, it was the Mad Dog that ran him out of town in 95.  I recall nothing being said in his defense from the front office when the media critics came calling nor did they speculate about his coming back for 96.  It is true though the whole organization was very high on his getting a post season shot.

“What to do with Jeter?  Here’s an idea—play him at SS until his contract is up, then figure out how much he’s got left in the tank and act accordingly.”

Doesn’t hurt to start planning and preparing based on incomplete but informed data.  If it’s 50% - even 10% - likely that we’ll want a new SS, it’s not too soon to start thinking about where to get one.

I didn’t think it would be possible for Pete Abe’s temporary replacement to leave me wishing the former would return, but…

One of the keys to Joba’s success or failure this year will be his ability to incorporate several pitches. As a reliever, you can be a one or two-pitch pitcher and have sustained success (see: Rivera, Mariano). It’s tougher to do that as a starter when you’re seeing hitters over and over. How well he can throw the secondary pitches this year will be a big indicator of whether he can give the Yankees what they need.

Really? I must have been in an alternate universe when Joba was mowing down everyone in his path as a starter. He needs to work on his efficiency and cut down on the walks a bit, but his secondary pitches are just fine.

Lest we all forget, let’s recap:

Sabathia
Joba
Wang
Burnett
Pettitte

Damon LF, L
Jeter SS, R
Texeira 1B, S
Rodriguez 3B, R
Posada C, S
Cano 2B, L
Nady RF, R
Matsui DH, L
Gardner CF, S

Rivera
Bruney
Marte
Ramirez
Coke

It’s only on paper yet, but that’s a pretty fucking good milkshake. I don’t know if it’s worth five dollars but it’s pretty fucking good. Health, my friends!  Health, and we win.

Hey teh eighth: Brian Bruney will be Tom Gordon 2004, without the exhaustion / Proctorian IP.

As a reliever, you can be a one or two-pitch pitcher and have sustained success (see: Rivera, Mariano)

Right, because there are dozens of guys who have had sustained success comparable to Rivera’s.  Look, everybody knows that most relievers only throw two pitches and successful starters usually need at least a third that they can show now and then, but why use an example that it is so completely irrelevant to your argument?

Doesn’t hurt to start planning and preparing based on incomplete but informed data.  If it’s 50% - even 10% - likely that we’ll want a new SS, it’s not too soon to start thinking about where to get one.

Actually, it’s not hard to imagine that it could hurt.  And not just in public relations or player relations.  Worrying too much about filling SS in 2011 could lead to stuff like targeting a particular free agent who might never hit the market, or passing on an opportunity to improve the team in 2009 or 2010.

I would bet they switch Matsui and Cano but other than that, looks like a good team.

Oh jeez, not this shit again:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/baseball/mlb/02/07/alex-rodriguez-steroids/index.html

Oh jeez, not this shit again:

As the top story on CNN.com, no less. Seriously? That’s the most pressing world news that they could come up with?

Damon LF, L
Jeter SS, R
Texeira 1B, S
Rodriguez 3B, R
Posada C, S
Cano 2B, L
Nady RF, R
Matsui DH, L
Gardner CF, S

Did I miss the trade?  Who did they get for Swisher?

It seems more legit than just Canseco spouting off…

Though that doesn’t make it legit, of course.

Worrying too much about filling SS in 2011 could lead to stuff like targeting a particular free agent who might never hit the market, or passing on an opportunity to improve the team in 2009 or 2010.

Yeah, actually at this point it could hurt.  Unless they can get a AA or higher SS who projects as an All Star, anything they do now could move pieces that could be better spent upgrading another area of need (OF, C, maybe even 2B).  After this coming season we’ll have some more data about Jeter, and also the kids (Angelini and Lassiter) to see if they are progressing or not.

It’s one thing to look at maybe developing a SS project in the system to take over for Jeter.  It’s another to worry about who we could sign for or trade.  If a kid is ready for the 2011 season, they’ll work something out with Jeter, ala Michael Young.

“Worrying too much”

This is a tautology.