I agree about Matsui.  He has to be one of the poorer fielding outfielders in the game at this point now that Bernie Williams has retired.  As long as Damon hits decently well, which he hasn’t thus far (but it’s early), there is no need for Hideki to bring his glove to the park.

By the way, does the ex AG get the start tonight?  It wouldn’t be a bad idea to have a real shortstop playing behind Wang - at a minimum just for comparison’s sake.

I don’t see why he wouldn’t.  He’s handled every chance flawlessly so far.

Actually (responding to comment on previous thread…

...the game I want the most is the third game - Hughes over GinsuKnife. 

Although Moose over Beckett would be very sweet, if less promising.

As long as the Yanks win one game in Fenway, I’ll be satisfied.  Tonight’s game probably represents the team’s best chance although one never knows how the Yanks will fare against a pitcher they’ve never seen before.  Two wins would be great but I fear Mussina could very well help David Ortiz out of his early season slump.

I’d be really surprised if Jeter didn’t play against the Sawks.

So the Yanks managed 8 runs in the Royals series.  What do we think they’ll get in three games at Fenway?

...Hideo Nomo, who I could have sworn has been retired for a few years…

That’s probably because he has been.

I’d be really surprised if Jeter didn’t play against the Sawks.

I suppose he might DH if he’s still a little gimpy.

does the ex AG get the start tonight?

I don’t see why he wouldn’t.  He’s handled every chance flawlessly so far.

But Betemit has been even better!

That’s probably because he has been.

He actually pitched one game in 2006 so technically he hasn’t been.

But Betemit has been even better!

Did Betemit really look that bad at short?  I’m not a scout but I didn’t think he fielded poorly aside from that missed tag at second on a steal attempt.  Maybe they were just getting tired of all his Ks?

It’s going to be a looooooong season if we’re going to be worried after ten games. I still remember “the roadtrip from hell” last year, I’m surprised no one snapped.

Curious to see Buchholz tonight - and even more so to see Wang pitch against Boston. That slider Wang had working against the Rays looked pretty good at times - could be a great complement to the sinker if he can continue mixing it in.

Looks to be in the forties and rainy in Boston tonight.

So the Yanks managed 8 runs in the Royals series.  What do we think they’ll get in three games at Fenway?

18 +/- 4 runs

With GA at short, an outfield without Matsui and with Ensberg or Betemit at first we have a very strong deffense and I can’t remember when was the last time we had a better deffense

He actually pitched one game in 2006 so technically he hasn’t been.

Not according to bb-ref.  Surely you’re not suggesting that Forman is fallible?

18 +/- 4 runs

I say 3 +/- 3 runs

Not according to bb-ref.

He pitched one game for Charlotte in 2006.  3 innings.  Yeah, it’s the minors but still…

Odd that Melky’s numbers look bad… I can’t recall a single ball where I thought “geez, Melky, you gotta get to that.”  I’ve missed a few innings here or there, though, and all it takes at this stage is one or two chances.

Matsui is no longer even a passable fielder.  Yeah, you can stick him out there if you really, really, really need to, but I’d prefer it be avoided.

The AG hasn’t been totally flawless - he screwed up a DP last night with a high throw.  No error, of course, and no damage ultimately done.

I think AG should start tonight because of Chein-Ming the Merciless, but I agree that Betemit should start Games 2 and 3. If he’s not playing short when Jeter’s hurt, why, exactly, do we have him?

In these days of 12-pitcher staffs, you can’t afford to waste a bench spot on someone you’re not going to use. And the Yanks actually have a good bench this year….

Indeed.  When Shelley comes back, playing him in RF and Ensberg at 1B against lefties is going to give the team a great chance against a group of pitchers that dominated them last season.

I remember the game where Melky made two consecutive plays that looked difficult at YS. One was going back to the wall, the second one was a leaping, diving catch over his shoulders. Michael Kay went nuts after the second one, but my instantaneous thought was that a guy that reads the ball better off the bat gets there quicker without the drama.

Then O’Neill mentioned something about Melky positioning himself differently than other CFers that made that catch harder for him. Could that be a reason why zone rating does not like Melky much?

I know the standard response for this one: “He is positioning himself to give himself the best chance to succeed at the position.” I don’t think that is necessarily true, he could be positioning himself in such a way that the total number of play he makes could be lower, but the team makes a higher number of plays, because it allows somebody else to make a greater number of plays that that person could make if Melky were at the regular position. Thus, it is about maximizing the total number of plays a team makes, not an individual.

Is it possible that Melky could be suffering in zone ratings because of that, and someone else (say Abreu) is the beneficiary?

“Indeed.  When Shelley comes back, playing him in RF and Ensberg at 1B against lefties is going to give the team a great chance against a group of pitchers that dominated them last season. “

You’re not suggesting they sit Abreu again against lefties are you?  I haven’t looked at the splits, but Bobay! is a hitter and he’s on a hot streak… no sit!

Once shelley’s back, I prefer he play left on days Damon has to rest.  Matsui is awful, and that whole secret wedding and sketch of his bride thing was bizarre and creepy.

Is it possible that Melky could be suffering in zone ratings because of that, and someone else (say Abreu) is the beneficiary?

It’s possible, but we’re talking about 8 games and 21 chances so I don’t know that I’d make too much out of his rating just yet.  It looks like the bulk of his missed chances came in the first two games of the year (7 chances, 4 plays made).  I remember the one dive that he missed in the opener, can’t think of the others off the top of my head.  Since then he’s caught 13 of 14, which is a ZR of .929 which is quite good.

I’ve read similar discussion with Andruw Jones who played very shallow and thus looked worse in zone rating than he may have been in actuality.

I wonder if these teams will ever reach the point where they can treat an early series like this as just another series. I mean, doesn’t the hype EVER get old?

My dad’s behind the dugout tonight. Very jealous. Interesting matchups because Buchholz is having command issues, usually fatal against the Yanks. But no Posada… big difference, IMHO. Dice is pretty sharp right now, though a patient Yankee team could scuttle his nice start. Beckett is at 80% right now, I’d guess.

Abreu’s career platoon split against lefties is .276/.374/.394.  In my opinion, Shelley can do better than that - especially in the slugging department.  Thus, against southpaws, the Yanks optimal lineup would include Ensberg at 1B and Duncan in RF.  In my mind, that’s precisely why both guys are on the team (or will be).

By the way SSF, I believe most fairly intelligent people are going to treat this as just another series - or perhaps as something slightly more than that.  The press, obviously, is always going to consider the series their version of Christmas, but ten games into the season, this hardly seems like a high pressure type of situation.  If the Yanks can win at least one game, I (and probably they) will feel all right.

Do you have the lefty splits for Matsushi/Damon?

I have no idea where Jayson Stark finds these “scouts” to quote, but man, does he come up with some idiotic ones:

“I think their bullpen is going to have trouble,” said one scout. “I love [Rafael] Soriano as a set-up guy. But as a closer, I think he’s just middle-of-the-pack.

As Todd Jones, Joe Borowski and countless others have proven, it does not take a special talent to be the ninth inning pitcher, or the closer. I am not aware of any study/anecdotal evidence (maybe SG can help here) that would suggest that the quality of hitters faced in the ninth inning is better than that of the seventh, eighth, or even second inning.

Aren’t scouts supposed to look at how good the pitcher is, how he carries himself in the mound (questionable as to effectiveness, but still), how he handles having men on base etc.? How exactly one makes a determination that Joe Setupguy will suck as John Closer? Does Joe Setupguy weeps while watching chick flicks whereas in the role of John Closer he would need to kill puppies and proudly declare it in front of PETA?

And Stark sucks, he is grotesquely self-indulgent and unfunny.

Matsui is: .293/.359/.450 vs. lefties career-wise.  Damon is: .286/.348/.403.  Matsui is clearly better, although he’s awful in the outfield.  I’d rather see Jorge play DH against lefties, with Molina catching.  An OF of Damon, Melky and Shelley Duncan seems optimal to me in terms of overall offensive and defensive value.

I’m surprised.  Based on the numbers, I have to agree.  Still, the guy with the hot bat should be considered too.

And I like the Posada DH/Molina catching thing too.

I heard John Closer tore his rotator cuff…looks like Joe Setupguy is going to get his chance….FINALLY!

It seems like our Wang is a fairly smart fellow.  Perhaps he is trying to develop two distinct pitching approaches… one that he can use at the Stadium with doctored, soggy infields and against more patient lineups (pitching to contact with his sinker), another he can use in away games and against more aggressive lineups (longer counts, more Ks with his slider & four-seamer).  For instance in tonight’s game, facing the OBPurist Sox in a muddy bandbox, you’d expect to see more sinkers, especially to hitters like Drew, Pedroia, Ellsbury, who haven’t had the chance to adjust to them over the course of three years of steady Wang exposure like Manny and Papi have.

Of course if you buy this theory you have to assume that he was just fucking with the Rays.  I guess we’ll see.

Meanwhile Bucholz, who appears to be dumb as a post, is developing two distinct approaches as well.  On the one hand, he is a lanky, fugly kleptomaniac with control issues, on the other he is a top SP prospect who pitches no hitters and dates Penthouse models.

ABD,
Why would we expect longer counts from more aggressive lineups?

sam,
That’s all well and good, but the fact is that with rare exceptions (Tigers, Indians) teams tend to use their best reliever as the closer.  And that means that when Joe Setupguy is thrust into the closer role, he’s suddenly being compared to a more talented peer group.  Bubba Scout might not have meant anything more than that.

I mean, doesn’t the hype EVER get old?

It got old for me in 1999.

I actually look forward to Buccholz’s outing tonight. I have never seen him pitch, and want to see why he is rated so highly.

Also, living in Brookline, I am going to be blacked out from other coverages, but I don’t mind the NESN broadcast much, and prefer it better than the Kay + variety. Jerry Remy is partisan at times, but he is awesome. Actually, I also liked the KC feed during the last series.

MC in VA,

The point is, Rafael Soriano is a dominant relief pitcher. He is every bit as talented as any of the other relief pitchers in the majors. It just happens that he pitches in the eighth inning; I have no reason to believe that he will not compare well against the ninth inning crowd.

And being in the eighth inning these days gets you compared to the likes of Joba Chamberlain, Rafaels Betancourt and Perez, Hideki Okajima, Pat Neshek, Jonathan Broxton and the likes. I think that is a pretty talented group, and you can pretty easily substitute it to the existing closer group and obtain equivalent results.

MCVA… I know less than nothing about pitching to major league hitters, but I take it the general principle is to make them uncomfortable.  You take a patient hitter like Youkilis, he’s happy to work a 14-pitch walk.  Ideally you’d want to put something across the zone and try to get a pop-up or weak grounder and save your arm so you’re not at 120 pitches in the 5th inning.  You take your chances you can DP the next guy.  Especially if the field conditions and your defense are suitable to this strategy.  But a bad-ball hitter like B.J. Upton is happy to pound anything near the zone, especially if he can expect to see the same hard sinker on pretty much every pitch.  So you throw the four-seamer up, the slider in, with the hope that he’ll whiff a few of them and a team of more athletic free-swingers like the Rays (or the Angels) won’t get the running game going.

Horne has a “slight tear” of his right biceps muscle as per Chad Jennings.  Whether he misses the season or not is unknown but he’s being sent to Tampa to rehab.  Jennings mentions Dan McCutchen or Chase Wright as possible replacements.  I would much prefer McCutchen given his higher ceiling but we shall see.

Note to Joba, Betancourt, Zumaya, et. al.  Get out of the 8th inning while you still can.  This is where the 8th inning mentality will get you in the long run.  Getting wasted and punching out one of your team’s 17 remaining fans.  You have been warned.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=3169

I attended the middle game (unfortunately) at KC this week. I’ve never enjoyed a game less in person.  Bad enough that Jetes was out as well as Jorge, but I had to see the team at their typical April worst. That said, it was a miserable night to play in, though the young Royals did well in spite. I knew like most of those who check in here daily that Farney would blow it and sure enough I saw him give up a rocket to their very average catcher Buck. That thing went through the wind and rain and carried about 440 feet thanks to Farney’s straight and predictable fastball.  It was just a nasty night and I vow to not go to any more April Yankee games from now on. They are still in spring training mode.

Too early to judge Girardi but he needs to forget about Farney.  I was pleased with Bruney and Traber. They look like they could help us this year. Hawkins who knows- but he’s not really distinguished himself all that much in the AL over his career but if the other two guys can do the job along with Joba and Mo we may be better off than a year ago. It will be interesting to see how all the players perform when warmer and healthy.

I’m not near as confident that Kennedy and Hughes will be any great shakes better this year than the many other talented pitchers who struggled for two-three years in finding their way.  There are way too many guys like Bondermann and Greineke and others to point to that took a while to find their groove.

I think the hope with Hughes and Kennedy is they can at least be average. Once the Yankee offense starts to click that should be plenty.

This board is very quiet.  I can only assume that Bucholz got to yours first.