“At this point, let’s look back at the April Expectations post.  Using log5 and the at least the next two games after re-aggravating his quad injury.”

That doesn’t look right.  Missing a sentence or two?

Morning HTML issues.  Should be fixed now.

A win is a win, and anything is better than 9-14 or whatever the hell we were last year around this time.

Oh yeah, and 1 game out of first place!

Mussina is second on the team in wins. That’s awesome.

Jeter, A-rod, Abreu, I guess Giambi, and Cano (Although Cano is off to his worst start by far, and probably won’t put up the numbers we’re accustomed to at this point, he should bounce back in a big way) are woefully underperforming at this point. To be a game over .500 with that kind of bedshitting is pretty remarkable. Jeter and Cano have been unlucky, A-rod has been hurt, Abreu just isn’t doing much. Damon and Matsui are overperforming, but they aren’t playing out of their ability. Melky is 23, he may stay this good (unlikely). One of these days, this offense is going to get rolling and slaughter everyone. I can’t wait to see Hughes tonight, if he builds on his last start, that would be awesome. Of course, it’s cold and rainy tonight. Freakin weather.

Also, Jeter’s range looks terrible. That he had a bad year is probably no surprise to Brian Cashman, so is this another silver lining of some sorts for our rebuilding year. Gonzalez is up, has hit the ball well when he’s played (and in some big games against the Red Sox on national TV), and has got over whatever rookie jitters he may have because he’s flashing the leather at 2B, SS and 3B.  Sooner or later Jeter’s horrible range is going to be (mainstream) forefront and Cashman will have to make a decision.

Melky is 23, he may stay this good (unlikely).

One point I missed yesterday that got emailed to me is Melky’s HR/FB rate is around 20% which is probably unsustainably high.  He did hit two Yankee Stadium cheapies so I’d look for that SLG to come down a little.  I don’t see why he can’t sustain at least .280 AVG and .350 OBP though.  If he slugs .450 that’s pretty sweet.

Average AL CF in 2008: .272/.337/.403 (about 77 runs created per 650 PA)
Average AL CF in 2007: .272/.340/.414 (about 79 runs created per 650 PA)

If Melky hits .280/.350/.450, he’d be worth about 89 runs created over 650 PA.

I agree his HRs are going to come down, he’s hitting too few doubles for this to be his real HR rate (and also, he’s not hitting 30 in a year, ever). But I think the OBP is going to get a nice bump now that pitchers are aware that he can actually hurt them, something that was not so certain last year. Additionally, he seems more confident at the plate and more likely to layoff the close pitches he flailed at last year. I think he could post an OBP closer to .370 than .350, even if he hasn’t gotten there yet.

I’m pretty happy with how Moose is pitching this year, although I have to be honest that I don’t know how he’s doing it.

he’s added more separation between his “fast"ball and his off-speed stuff.  he’s getting swings and misses on 68 MPH curves/changes/eephus balls/whatever.

it’s fascinating really.

watching him succeed with nothing but junk and guile has been almost as much fun as watching someone like Wang dominate a game.

raise your hand if you thought he would get out of that bases loaded 0 out jam with only giving up one more run.

“watching him succeed with nothing but junk and guile has been almost as much fun as watching someone like Wang dominate a game.”

I agree.  It’s sort a heart-in-mouth feeling, because if he misses with that fastball…or a curve flattens out…but he can actually make it work. 

I wonder if he’ll get better when the weather warms.  They say the heat makes the knuckleball dance more; could it also have an effect on slow pitches?  Or is there still enough spin to defeat the atmospheric effects?  Anyone know?

Jeter’s offensive game last night was another good example of what we were talking about yesterday. When he swings early and hard he still ends up with grounders and the hard ones last night went directly at second and shortstop. A low inside pitch resulted in a chop to third that he beat out. The only time he hit a ball in the air is down the rightfield line and missed out on another hit. For Twenty million he has become primarily a singles hitter, though he has hit often like this in previous Aprils and eventually his timing or adjustments produce better results. It’s not hard to see though why his power numbers are reduced in recent years. He still will likely hit .300 and score 100 runs or more and defintely will have more productive periods. It’s just frusterating to see him pound the ball consistently on the ground- for me at least.

On another front, remember those on this site who were vocal advocates for acquring Zito- the innings eater? What an albatross of a contract for a team that desperately needs better players. 

Give Melky credit for creating something last night when nothing seemed likely to happen. It was a chopper in the right place, but it broke up the no hitter and got things rolling. We finally got some good fortune that inning as it appeared Jeter got a gift and A-rod was about to K when he was hit in the leg.

Let’s hope the home cooking is good for some of our lagging bats and gives Hughes some new confidence as well. I’d rather not be playing the Tigers though.

and also, he’s not hitting 30 in a year, ever

Never is a long, long time.  I could see Melky hitting 30 some year, especially in Yankee Stadium (new stadium is supposed to have the same dimensions, though the ball could carry differently).  Forty I think is definitely out of his league (though again anything is possible), but 30 is doable.

I’m pretty happy with how Moose is pitching this year, although I have to be honest that I don’t know how he’s doing it.

Adding to what yup said, I also think he isn’t trying to throw as hard this year.  I’m starting to think that last year throwing 90 was a challenge to him, and that came out as a bunch of straight, batting-practice fastballs he had difficulty controlling.  This year (as Cone said numerous times last night), he is working more with the two-seam, and I think he is sacrificing some MPH for better control and movement.

raise your hand if you thought he would get out of that bases loaded 0 out jam with only giving up one more run.

I’ll have raise it.  I never thought he *couldn’t* get out of the jam, because for the most part they weren’t scorching the ball off of him, unlike other times the last year or so when he’s fallen apart.  I certainly though a DP was always possible given how he was pitching, and at that point you just need one more out.  But I can’t honestly say I was confident he would make it out of the fifth.

I for one thought Moose was about to give up four or five and depart. I have to admit it.

As I tried to argue in some earlier Melky discussions, I think folks should take a look at year-to-year fluctuations in some other players’ walk rates before making too many assumptions about what Melky’s “sustainable” OBP will be and why.  Derek Jeter’s walk rates have varied from about 6 or 7% to over 12%; Johnny Damon’s from as low as 6% to as high as 11%.  The differences among Melky’s 2006, 2007 and 2008 walk rates are probably not nearly as meaningful as we might like to think.

I’ll have raise it=I’ll half raise it

Two hours sleep was fine in college; not so good any more.

raise your hand if you thought he would get out of that bases loaded 0 out jam with only giving up one more run

Raises hand.

I thought he was due for a couple of at-‘em balls after the bloops that got him into trouble.  I was expecting the inning to end on an 8-2 DP.

On another front, remember those on this site who were vocal advocates for acquring Zito- the innings eater?

not sure, but i know i wasn’t one of them.

i had no doubt that contract would be an all-time stinker.

I also thought acquiring Zito might be a good idea, given his track record.  Yikes on that one.

raise your hand if you thought he would get out of that bases loaded 0 out jam with only giving up one more run

I will not.  As much as I love the Moose, I thought for sure this would be the inning of the meltdown, as so often happens with him when a couple of bloops and dinks drop in.  A grand-slam wouldn’t have been out of the question either.  I’m happy to have been proven wrong.  Go Moose!

Also, Jeter’s range looks terrible

I thought pre-quad injury he looked better.  Certainly not Adam Everret (sp), but maybe be able to be average, which would be huge.  I know he played a few games with the injury and that affected him.  But I looked up his ZR and was going to ask SG to play the selective endpoints game and show Jeter’s ZR both pre and post injury.  Then I saw a ZR of I think .754, and figured it wasn’t worth it.  That’s what, about 1,000 plays less than the average SS over the course of a year?

If AG can continue to hit, I think they HAVE to explore one of two landing spots for DJ next year; RF or 1B.  Unless Jeter makes an amazing comeback defensively the rest of the year. While I would love to see that, I’m having real doubts if even an .800 ZR is possible for him any more.

one more point about Moose, you never want to load the bases, but i think he very wisely pitched around Victor Martinez.

again, part of his effectiveness is probably related to increased ACCEPTANCE of his diminishing stuff. 

he thought he could get Manny.  he couldn’t.

Martinez has been all over the Yankees this series. so he pitched around him.

smart.

I thought pre-quad injury he looked better

me too, but not anymore.  he looked like he was wearing cement shoes last night.

also, has anyone else noticed how often Giambi has to pick his low throws?

he has become primarily a singles hitter

a) He has always been primarily a singles hitter; almost 75% of his career hits have been singles; his ISO has been over .150 four times (.160 three times, .170 twice, .200 once).

b) Do you really think his iso is going to stay below .100 this year?

  Forty I think is definitely out of his league (though again anything is possible), but 30 is doable.

At some point I’ll probably look at the power output of people who have started their career with the same lack of HRs as Melky has to see what his upside may be. Kirby Puckett springs to mind as someone who went from no pop to 30 HRs a year.

As I tried to argue in some earlier Melky discussions, I think folks should take a look at year-to-year fluctuations in some other players’ walk rates before making too many assumptions about what Melky’s “sustainable” OBP will be and why.

This is true, but I’d guess that players who have walked at Melky’s rate at his relative youth have been able to sustain it moreso than a player of similar rates who may be a few years older.  Sounds like another project.

I’m starting to think that last year throwing 90 was a challenge to him… (this year)... I think he is sacrificing some MPH for better control and movement.

part of his effectiveness is probably related to increased ACCEPTANCE of his diminishing stuff

It probably is, but Moose hasn’t had a 90 mph fastball since some time around 2003.  I’m thinking the long lag in acceptance might have something to do with not really knowing just exactly how much fastball is enough to get by with until you obviously don’t have quite enough.

“He did hit two Yankee Stadium cheapies so I’d look for that SLG to come down a little.”

SG, what makes you think Melky won’t continue to get the benefit of Yankee Stadium cheapies?  By all accounts, he’s a better hitter from the left side of the plate.  Wouldn’t that mean that he’ll likely continue to get more short-porch HRs? I’m not saying that you’re wrong that Melky’s power numbers will fall from what they are now.  I’m sure they will.  But any lefty will always get the Yankee Stadium benefit for their power numbers, and if Melky’s power has legitimately improved, I would think that the short-porch will have some sort of multiplier effect on his previous HR totals.

I’d guess that players who have walked at Melky’s rate at his relative youth have been able to sustain it moreso than a player of similar rates who may be a few years older

I’m not saying that he can’t sustain it.  I’m saying that whatever his true talent walk rate may be, there will still be quite a bit year-to-year fluctuation.  I guess I’m talking more about the definition of “sustain.”

When he swings early and hard he still ends up with grounders and the hard ones last night went directly at second and shortstop. A low inside pitch resulted in a chop to third that he beat out. The only time he hit a ball in the air is down the rightfield line and missed out on another hit. For Twenty million he has become primarily a singles hitter, though he has hit often like this in previous Aprils and eventually his timing or adjustments produce better results. It’s not hard to see though why his power numbers are reduced in recent years. He still will likely hit .300 and score 100 runs or more and defintely will have more productive periods. It’s just frusterating to see him pound the ball consistently on the ground- for me at least.

It may not be the way you like it, but Jeter is a good offensive player and occasionally a great one who has a bat that can play at any position. In his MVP year in 06, he hit 3.23 GB for every flyball. He’s hit 4.25 so far this year, which is more extreme, but unlikely to continue. His line drive rate is a little low, but the guy has still been unlucky this year. Unless teams have finally figured out how to scout Jeter perfectly, he’s going to come on in a big way sometime soon. He’s had much worse starts to the season and finished fine. He’s not a 20 million dollar player anymore, but few are, especially at 34, but that’s Steinbrenner’s fault, not his.

Forty I think is definitely out of his league (though again anything is possible), but 30 is doable.

We’ll agree to disagree then. I don’t see it happening.

The differences among Melky’s 2006, 2007 and 2008 walk rates are probably not nearly as meaningful as we might like to think.

I’m struggling to understand what you mean by meaningful here. A lot of Melky’s offensive value is tied up in his walks. He doesn’t hit for the power Damon does/did, nor does he have Damon’s speed. Jeter falls out of bed and hits .310, and is also faster than Melky. Melky needs to walk once every ten PAs or so to be useful. He’s not a good bet to maintain a <.200 ISO, he’s on pace for 45 XBHs, 32 of them are not going to be HRs, when that slugging percentage comes crashing down, he’s going to need his walk rate to stay a productive player. If Melky holds his walk rate this year, it’s going alter his projections upwards, by alot, relative to last year. He does not project to be a power hitter, maintaining a good walk rate is essential to Melky’s growth as a player, if his discipline can’t rebound after last year, he’s going to look like a fourth OFer after this year. If he does rebound, he’s a centerfielder with real growth potential, I don’t see how anything could be more meaningful for Melky.

but Moose hasn’t had a 90 mph fastball since some time around 2003

I thought as late as 2006 he was still touching 90.  Not sitting there, but pitching like 87-89 and touching 90, occasionally 91.  Last year I don’t know if he hit 90 more than a few times.  And that’s the point.  I’m sure he still COULD throw 90.  Just like I’m sure Mariano still COULD throw 97.  But what’s the point if it is straight and you don’t know where it is going?

It would be nice if Bobby Abreu would take advantage of Yankee Stadium’s short porch more often.  He hit one there against Tampa in a game I attended earlier this month, but someone like Abreu should be able to hit 25 HR easily playing in the Bronx.

As things stand now, RF is going to be open next season.  First base will be free as well.  That gives Jeter two options for a much needed change of position.  If the ex AG continues to show signs of being able to hit decently well, I would love to see him play SS next season.  Between him and Cano, they would cover a lot of ground in the infield.

SG, what makes you think Melky won’t continue to get the benefit of Yankee Stadium cheapies?

Sure, he will.  He just may not get them at the rate he’s gotten them to this point.  He has 2 HRs in 21 home AB.  I don’t see him sustaining that.

Kirby Puckett springs to mind as someone who went from no pop to 30 HRs a year.

Puckett is weird, he went from 0 to 4 to 31 in 3 years. There are a couple guys (Beltran, Bernie) on Melky’s PECOTA comp list that went on to hit 30 or more, I still don’t see it. He doesn’t really have the swing or the body for it.

I’m not saying that he can’t sustain it.  I’m saying that whatever his true talent walk rate may be, there will still be quite a bit year-to-year fluctuation.  I guess I’m talking more about the definition of “sustain.”

That makes more sense to me. In my view the idea is that if he can flash the discipline now, then he’s more likely to improve or maintain his disicipline as he gets older. There will always be fluctuation, but if you put up a good walk rate at 21 and 23, there’s a pretty good reason to believe you’ll have a good walk rate at 28 or 30 too. There are exceptions, like Adrian Beltre, but they are pretty rare.

My bet is on Jeter in RF and his defense out there makes him a very good player, even though his bat won’t be all that special. He’s a better athlete than just about everyone in right (except Upton, maybe Markakis, Kemp?, Rios), especially if you only look at the AL.

CP - What MC is saying is not that the walk rate isn’t important to Melky, just that the natural fluctuation in walk rates from year to year for baseball players does not allow us to conclude that Melky’s ability to draw a walk has really improved yet. What we’re seeing could simply be the normal, random variation that occurs among baseball players whose skill set has not changed. That would be bad for Melky because, as you noted, he does need to draw walks to remain valuable.

I thought as late as 2006 he was still touching 90.

Well when I say 90 mph fastball, I mean that his typical fastball is 90 mph.  According to fangraphs, his average FB in 2006 was 88.6; so yeah he might have touched 91 a few times.  It dropped by a whopping 1.5 mph in 2007, so he probably still touched 90 and 91 occasionally (but not as often).

I’m struggling to understand what you mean by meaningful here.

I hope 27 cleared that up a bit.  If his value is tied up in walking at least 10% of the time, and his true talent level is to walk 10% of the time, then he’s going to have years when he’s not very valuable simply because nobody’s walk rate is that consistent.

Now, personally, I have no idea what his true talent walk rate is.  But I do know that the difference between 7.3% and 10.9% is within counting error on the sample sizes we’re talking about.  Rilkefan showed us that a few threads ago.

just that the natural fluctuation in walk rates from year to year for baseball players does not allow us to conclude that Melky’s ability to draw a walk has really improved yet. What we’re seeing could simply be the normal, random variation that occurs among baseball players whose skill set has not changed.

Ok, I don’t agree with that because of Melky’s age, but it’s possible. His minor league numbers suggest he isn’t a big walker, but without knowing the league context, and knowing how young he was for his leagues, it’s hard to draw too much from that information.

Good news on Jorge according to report from Olney. No surgery just rest.

Abreu seldom pulls fastballs and his short porch homers are normally only on offspeed. His fastball swing results in hitting to the large area of left center such as the homer in Chicago last week. I don’t know if that is due to age or whether that has always been the case for him. I too would like to see him go past the 20 homer mark this year.

I’m not down on Jeter as he was tremendous as recently as two years ago. But at 34 he may be losing a step. We revere players like Mantle but they had some off years as well and you are right that Jeter has had worse starts. 2004 for example. Oddly after he got it going that year he was tremendous IMO.  The weather has been lousy as well and most players perform at their best in the warm sun.  April Yankees games seem to be the low point in most seasons and at least they are one over.

I hope 27 cleared that up a bit

27 did, I posted my response before I saw it and I agree its a strong possibility. I still think he’s likely to get better at walking simply because he’s at the age where players usually get better at most offensive skills, particularly secondary skills.

I don’t know how we get Jeter to the outfield in this contract, but he would be a very very good one out there.

Huh, Michaels robbing Jeter last night made Sportscenter top 10 at #4. More evidence that he’s been getting screwed so far.

Joel,

If Giradi can get Matsui to STFU about playing the field I think he can get Jeter to play RF. If the Reds can move Griffey, the Yanks can move the Jeter.

Ok, I don’t agree with that because of Melky’s age

Age is a point in his favor, to be sure, but it doesn’t eliminate the problems associated with small samples in “true talent” determination, it only alleviates them a bit. For example, if you have a 33 year old who experiences a sudden spike in his production, you need more sustained performance to conclude that the result is significant than you would if he were 23 because that is an abnormal aging pattern for the population. However, even if he were 23, you’d still need more than a month’s worth of data. I’d wait and see how Melky’s doing at the end of the year, personally.

For the record, before the stats started getting thrown around, it appeared to me that Melky was taking a better approach at the plate. That could also be illusory, but the walks have also been accompanied by Melky seeing more pitches, and I doubt the two are unrelated. I remain optimistic, even if there isn’t a totally sound statistical basis for it yet.

However, even if he were 23, you’d still need more than a month’s worth of data. I’d wait and see how Melky’s doing at the end of the year, personally.

Oh definitely, but I like jumping the gun, especially for the guys I like.

Oh definitely, but I like jumping the gun, especially for the guys I like.

Me too, but I try not to let the irrationally exuberant side of me out in public too much. I just keep grinning every time he homers.

I am hoping Posada non surgery is good news.  I rather it not be a cycle of DL, sporadic effectiveness, rest, some playing time, DL, then still needing surgery.

I am hoping Posada non surgery is good news.  I rather it not be a cycle of DL, sporadic effectiveness, rest, some playing time, DL, then still needing surgery.

Yeah, as with A-Rod, I’d rather get it totally right than rush him back and risk yet another cycle of rehab.

Re 14, MC - even if you’re right, Melky’s walk rate is meaningful in a different way.  Even if we say that this is within that fluctuation, we know that his previous performance was neither the top nor the middle of the range, but nearer the bottom - and that would be a good thing, too.

I don’t know how we get Jeter to the outfield in this contract, but he would be a very very good one out there

Basically what CP said.  It will certainly be a bit of a political thing, and it will definitely help if AG is playing well (for selling it to the media/fans to be sure).  But certainly this is doable.  And actually getting Matsui to DH most of the time helps as well, because if Hideki can do it for the best of the team, why can’t Jeter?

And really, I don’t know if it will be that tough.  Yeah, Jeter considers himself a shortstop.  And no, he didn’t offer to move (though I don’t know if he was ever asked) to 3B when they got ARod.  But Jeter seems like an intelligent person, so if the Yankees present a rational argument that it is best for him AND the team, I really think he’d be willing to do it.  Who knows; everyone has blind spots.

I don’t know how we get Jeter to the outfield in this contract, but he would be a very very good one out there.

So, if Jeter is moved to RF in 2009 and Alberto Gonzalez goes to SS, we’re still falling short of maintaing the offensive production that we’re expecting in 2008 (Abreu + Jeter > Jeter + Gonzalez.) The more I hear horror stories about guys with long contracts (these days it’s Zito) the more I’m shying away from being for signing Texeira to play 1B. Somehow, I wish they’d swoop in and grab Nick Johnson who’s only owed $5.5M in 2009. And, if that were the case, is it possible that we could see a winter of no free agent moves this offseason?

So, if Jeter is moved to RF in 2009 and Alberto Gonzalez goes to SS, we’re still falling short of maintaing the offensive production that we’re expecting in 2008 (Abreu + Jeter > Jeter + Gonzalez.)

SG would have to chime in, but let’s say Jeter is -20 runs on defense and Gonzalez is +10…

if Jeter is slightly better than Abreu defensively in RF, they might be closer than you think.

closer in total, that is.

if Jeter is slightly better than Abreu defensively in RF, they might be closer than you think.

So here’s the plan: Move Jeter to RF, AG to SS, pick up Adam LaRoche who could be Nick Johnson lite but started of the year pretty putrid, lock him up cheap for 3-4 years and cut the prices of beer at the stadium in half.

...Melky’s walk rate is meaningful in a different way…

Of course his walk rate is meaningful.  Everybody’s walk rate is meaningful.  Especially so for players who aren’t likely to hit .330 or higher.  But I didn’t say that his walk rate wasn’t meaningful, I said that I think people sometimes read too much meaning into small changes in walk rate over small samples sizes.

we know that his previous performance was neither the top nor the middle of the range, but nearer the bottom

I don’t think we know that at all.  He walked 10.9% of 524 PA one year, and 7.3% of 612 PA the next.  Now he’s walked 10.8% of 96 PA this year.  I suppose it’s possible that 10.9% is the top of his range, and/or that 7.3% is the bottom, but it’s equally likely that the range extends further in one or both directions.  And of course, that’s without considering that his skill set is still evolving.

I’m also not sure what you think I’m right or wrong about.  I’m not in any way making a prediction about Melky’s future value as a hitter, either in terms of how much value he will have or how he will create it.  I’m just saying that reading too much into what really are relatively small changes measured over relatively small samples is a mistake.  And I know that I’m right about that.

We revere players like Mantle but they had some off years as well…

We revere players like Mantle because their off years would be most guys’ career years.

if Jeter is slightly better than Abreu defensively in RF, they might be closer than you think.

And it is still an open question-mark about how much offense Gonzalez might provide.  It may be 1 run or less difference NEXT year.  We could probably make that up with signing Texeira (given his age and position I’m not as worried about a long term contract, but let’s be reasonable), (expected) improvements from Cano and Melky based on age, etc. 

I think whatever happens, next year’s Yankees will *not* (likely) be as powerful on offense as this year’s.  Sure everyone could tank this year and they score 800 runs, and next year everyone has a career year and they score 1000, but realistically.  So let’s make some of that up on defense, no?

1 run or less = 1 win or less

I give up.

“I’m saying that whatever his true talent walk rate may be, there will still be quite a bit year-to-year fluctuation.”

FWIW, I think that means that (assuming the variation is significant statistically) that there is no “true” talent walk rate from year to year (maybe from subsample to subsample - something testable).  Semantic quibble at most.

We revere players like Mantle because their off years would be most guys’ career years.

True enough with the exception of 1959 and certainly years after the 64 season. 59 was one where Mickey hit 31 out but his average slid into the.280 range as I recall and he had a lot of overall frusteration.  Anyway he had just set a really high standard for himself in 56-57 that was probably way above anyones norm. I think he fell to 42 homers and .304 in 58 but 59 looked like a really significant falloff and of course maybe the owners thought he was partying too often. (perhaps true)

By the way I remember hearing recently that Bobby Cox who played alongside Mantle on that last 1968 team said the following:

When Mantle announced his retirement the following March, Cox said all the teammates were flustered because Mick recites all the things he can’t do anymore to the press.  After it was over Cox said all the teammates were saying what’s going on- he’s still the best player on the team…

And it is still an open question-mark about how much offense Gonzalez might provide.

exactly right- I would feel way more comfortable if the kid could first hit .280 over a full AAA season.

Semantic quibble at most.

Or maybe not.  My thoughts on this subject are based on the assumption that there is a true talent walk rate and that the variation is all, for want of a better concept, counting error.  The alternative assumption is that the true talent actually does change from sample to sample.  If that’s the case, then there should be an explanation (eg—different approach by hitter, greater fear factor on the part of pitchers, etc) for the year to year fluctuations.  Which is exactly what some others want to believe, and what I won’t believe.  At least not until I see a bigger change over a larger sample.

Lets say the Yanks sign Tex, play AG at SS and put Jeter in RF. They go from below average to good defensive team in a year. They probably gain something like 50 runs or so defensively like that. Tex makes so much sense for this team its silly.

For the record, I think the Yanks should make a run at signing Furcal for a couple of years if they can pull that off rather than give the job to AG.

59 was one where Mickey hit 31 out but his average slid into the.280 range as I recall and he had a lot of overall frusteration.

Mantle led the league in OPS+ in 1959.  Yes, he set a ridiculously high standard.

You might have heard the Cox story from me.  I know I’ve posted here that Cox said something to the effect of, “He’s the best player on the team by so much that it isn’t even funny, but he’s the one who’s retiring?”

A quick look at a few players’ fluctuation in walk rate shows a standard deviation of around 0.034 in BB/PA.  So if a player is a true talent 0.10 BB/PA, we’d expect them to be in a range of 0.066 to 0.134 2/3 of the time.

As far as the AG and his offense, a weighted average of the AL SS from 2005-2007 gives a line of .274/.328/.401.  Gonzalez was projected to hit .253/.301/.348 coming into this year.  Over 650 plate appearances that would make him 15 runs below average.  If he’s a +15 defender then he’s an average overall player.  That’s not a bad thing, but it’s not really a good thing either.

And it’s doubtful he’s a +15 defender. But if he’s a +5 or so he won’t kill you assuming he can run and bunt.

I’m surprised the BB/PA fluctuates so much. I thought that was supposed to be more consistent than batting average. I mean, it may still be, but I was under the impression that it was way more stable than that for established players. It’s making more sense the more I think about it, maybe I’ll be completely unsurprised in a few minutes.

But if he’s a +5 or so he won’t kill you assuming he can run and bunt.

Yeah, you have to be -20 or so overall to be replacement level.  If he’s -15 offensively and +5 defensively, he’s about a win better than that. 

I’m surprised the BB/PA fluctuates so much.

I am too.  I knew it fluctuated some, but not to that extent.

Tex makes so much sense for this team its silly.

true, it’s going to be a sad day when he signs an extension in Atlanta.

I just saw an interview with Ensburg.
I was blown away - the guy was astoundingly well spoken for a ball player, really, really funny, self-deprecating, and just all-around charming.
I’m now really hoping he comes back this year in style.

But have we really determined that it fluctuates that much?  SG did write that the conclusion was based only on “a quick look at a few players’ fluctuation in walk rate.”

With respect to variation and “true talent,” I remember hearing someone quoting (I believe) Stephen J. Gould saying that variation is the true norm in populations; the mean, or “true talent,” is the abstraction that we make up to present and understand the variation.

In other words, I have no doubt that a player’s “true talent” varies from sample to sample, often for reasons that we would be unable to quantify. It doesn’t have to be simply “counting error.” Nonetheless, we can still speak of “true talent” in an abstract sense because even if a player’s “true talent” is never exactly at the level to which we peg it, it still provides a good model.

As an aside (and I’m sure a real statistician would know better than I), wouldn’t the central limit theorem dictate that our measurements of a player’s true talent would be normally distributed about his mean “true talent” level? Thus, while me may never beg his “true talent” level exactly, we can be reasonably confident that we are dealing with something approaching the mean “true talent” level. I’m genuinely curious about this.

You might have heard the Cox story from me.

Probably right.  At least you know it made an impact on me. Great story.  As a guy who remembers mostly the Mantle down years the fact that he walked so much (even at the end of his career) wasn’t given much value by the press. You didn’t hear much about OBP. That lineup was so thin in those days why wouldn’t you walk Mantle I guess.

Yup is probably right that Tex may sign on in Atlanta. Didn’t he play ball for a Georgia collegiate team and build a new home there. They have been ultra conservative before so who knows but if he plays well for them in the next few months I could see him off the market.

If you say that Tex and CC are on the market, would the Yanks front office be bold enough to go after both?  And lets not forget that Wang is getting closer to big bucks.

A quick look at a few players’ fluctuation in walk rate shows a standard deviation of around 0.034 in BB/PA.  So if a player is a true talent 0.10 BB/PA, we’d expect them to be in a range of 0.066 to 0.134 2/3 of the time.

I could have just posted this back up at #14 and saved everybody a lot of trouble.

I have no doubt that a player’s “true talent” varies from sample to sample, often for reasons that we would be unable to quantify.

This is, in a sense, the very opposite of what Gould said.  The “true talent” is the totality of all outcomes.  What we call variance comes from examining only a sub-sample rather than the totality.

I don’t know how we get Jeter to the outfield in this contract, but he would be a very very good one out there.

It would probably be a mistake to try. The offensive drop-off from Jeter to A.G. cannot be offset defensively, and the Yankees have plenty of outfielders for the next two years. When Matsui and Damon leave left field will be open. Jeter knows the left side of the field better, I would leave him on that side. Gonzalez is a good defensive middle infielder, he should stay in that role unless he starts raking.

For the record, before the stats started getting thrown around, it appeared to me that Melky was taking a better approach at the plate. That could also be illusory, but the walks have also been accompanied by Melky seeing more pitches, and I doubt the two are unrelated. I remain optimistic, even if there isn’t a totally sound statistical basis for it yet.

I agree, particularly from the right handed side, but I just can’t see him making major strides. His only plus tool is his arm. If Melky is blocking a higher ceiling player in Brett Gardner or Austin Jackson, he will likely get traded.

wouldn’t the central limit theorem dictate that our measurements of a player’s true talent would be normally distributed about his mean “true talent” level?

I think it would, but it would still be difficult to know that you were actually seeing the true distribution until you had made enough independent measurements.

Ensberg may be a great guy but he sure looks asleep at the wheel some times at the plate. When he stands there like a statue and takes one right down the middle for a called third strike - it kind of gets to me. His stance and presence at the plate seems awfully unhitterish/passive so to speak but results are what counts so he deserves some more time. Cano looks very hitterish/agressive until he hacks at some lousy pitch, but this will change I trust as the weather warms.

If Melky is blocking a higher ceiling player in Brett Gardner or Austin Jackson, he will likely get traded.

I don’t know.  He might be worth more as an insurance policy than what he could bring back in trade.  And he might hit enough to be adequate in RF for a year or two.  And of course, he’d make a helluva fourth outfielder.

When he stands there like a statue and takes one right down the middle for a called third strike - it kind of gets to me.

This kind of gets to me when anybody does it.  Even my middle school guys.  I mean, you’ve got two strikes on you and you got fooled on a fastball?  Really?  Here’s a clue kid, courtesy of Henry Aaron:

Q. So, Hank, when you’re in a tough spot with two outs and two strikes and runners on, is there anything in particular that you’re looking for?

A. Yeah.  The ball.

That’s paraphrased from an interview with David Frost, of all people.

If you say that Tex and CC are on the market, would the Yanks front office be bold enough to go after both?

I’ll answer my own question a first for me.  I think they would do something bold particularly under the following conditions.

(a) Yanks miss the postseason due largely to poor performance of rookie pitchers not named Chamberlain.

(b)  Hank Steinbrenner recognizing a lot of money coming off the books in Giambi, Moose others wants to make a big media splash and show the world and the organization he’s the new boss

(c) Cashman is allowed to walk

This is, in a sense, the very opposite of what Gould said.  The “true talent” is the totality of all outcomes.  What we call variance comes from examining only a sub-sample rather than the totality.

Hrm. Right, I can sort of see what you’re saying here. Granted, I’m using Gould’s quote a bit out of place: we’re talking about different samples for one player. He was talking about the variation in entire populations. If you are more familiar with the quote, and you very well might be, you are probably better able to supply the proper context.

I was just reminded of the quote because I think that much in the same way that we tend to view populations as “having” some “normal” or “usual” member when variation is the real rule, we sometimes assume that a player simply “has” a “true talent level,” when in reality a player’s abilities are constantly in flux. Today, I have the flu; I am a .200 hitter. Tomorrow, I don’t; I am a .300 hitter. We may measure that as “true talent” .250 hitter, but that’s never the way it actually was. Nonetheless, it’s a useful model.

If you say that Tex and CC are on the market, would the Yanks front office be bold enough to go after both?  And lets not forget that Wang is getting closer to big bucks.

In an print interview before going to Atlanta Tex said he would not sign with the Yankees. I believe he grew up in Georgia. Everyone has his price though. The Yankees don’t have any attractive internal candidates to play 1B and have serious money coming off the books, they ought to make sure someone has to pay at the very least.

Also, the Hank Aaron quote is priceless.

“A quick look at a few players’ fluctuation in walk rate shows a standard deviation of around 0.034 in BB/PA.  So if a player is a true talent 0.10 BB/PA, we’d expect them to be in a range of 0.066 to 0.134 2/3 of the time.”

You ought to take out the statistical uncertainty to address MC‘s claim.  Presumably the statistical and systematic uncertainty are uncorrelated to first order (e.g., a player unluckily missing some walks won’t worsen his overall approach to improve in that category), so it’s just sigma = sqrt(stat**2 + etc**2).  It looks to me like etc dominates.  So I think MC‘s account in 59 is wrong.

Incidentally, I think Gould was, relatively speaking, an idiot.  Amusingly, I just saw that a MC simulation shows that Dimaggio’s hit streak, which Gould praised as unique [a href=“http://www.nybooks.com/articles/4337”][/here] - isn’t surprising.

here?

Streak study here.

Some obvious flaws discussed here.  I should have read the details of the study when the op-ed came out.

Jeter’s offense + defense (or rather minus defense) = above-average SS.  It is trending down toward average, I know.  Over the next several years, the overall Jeter experience may be distinctly league-average.  However, even if the Attorney General is a real whiz with the glove, his bat isn’t nearly good enough.  Offense + Defense the AG will be a downgrade from Jeter.

Further, moving Jeter to an OF corner means you may well be sacrificing offense at said OF corner (depending on the alternative options during the length of Jeter’s next contract) b/c Jeter’s bat, while awesome for a SS, is (and will be, with further decline) merely so-so for a corner OFer. 

To me, this is sort of like saying that Posada’s defense is poor at catcher, but he can hit, so he should move to 1B so we can play Molina (or some other defense-first option).  The result is that we would get an average to slightly above average hitter at 1B (with questionable defense) and a black hole of despair in the lineup at C, with improved defense behind the plate, whilst blocking the team’s ability to, for instance, sign a real 1Bman (such as, in this example, Texiera).

To sum up, you live with Jeter at SS until the total package he brings to the table is below average and replaceable with something better.  Ditto Posada (injury issue aside).  Meanwhile, you work at developing or otherwise acquiring their replacements.

I know little to nothing of Gould other than:
1. That quote.
2. He liked baseball.
3. He showed up a lot in the dinosaur documentaries I watched as a kid. This is actually my predominant memory of him.

I am certain that he was smarter than I am. To be fair to him, there is an implicit understanding in the linked article that DiMaggio was far and away more “lucky” than we ever would have expected him to be, and that’s what makes in to so fascinating to us.

No link to the MC simulation?

Ah, I should’ve refreshed before posting, then I would have seen that link. Thanks.

To sum up, you live with Jeter at SS until the total package he brings to the table is below average and replaceable with something better

according to SG in this thread:

http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/comments/al_mvp_candidates_position_players

Jeter was already “only” average in 2007.

2008 *could* be the year he is a below average player. 

i kindof doubt it, but it’s not impossible.

2008 *could* be the year he is a below average player.
i kind of doubt it, but it’s not impossible.

I, for one, would rather see Jeter moved a year too early than a year too late. 

I feel like the year-early ship is sailing sometime in the next 365 days.

I should be surprised that Gould made an appearance on a baseball blog, but knowing all of you I’m not.

So I think MC‘s account in 59 is wrong.

Now, I’m confused.  In 59 I simply stated that my thinking was based on a basic assumption about true talent and random variation, and that an alternative assumption where talent actually varied non-randomly over closely linked sampling periods wasn’t particularly appealing to me.  Please tell me what account is wrong and why.  Or did you mean to reference a different one of my posts?

Just to clarify a bit further, I certainly do think that players’ skill sets change over time, and I thought I’d said as much.  I just think that when trying to discern this evolution with less that several full season’s worth of data the signal is likely to be swamped by the noise.

Elliot Gould was dynamite with George Segal in California Split

e.g., a player unluckily missing some walks won’t worsen his overall approach to improve in that category

This, being more about psychology than statistics, is something I feel more confident disagreeing about.  Don’t you think that players can and sometimes do over-react to a run of bad luck by changing their approach, usually with bad results?

I just think that when trying to discern this evolution with less that several full season’s worth of data the signal is likely to be swamped by the noise.

Lest there be any confusion, I agree wholeheartedly with this, for what it’s worth. Even though I think it’s likely a player’s skills are evolving and being impacted frequently, I don’t think that we can quantify that change in any useful way with small sets of data. Thus, we are left with using several seasons worth to establish what is likely to be a player’s “true talent” level.

Why wasn’t A-Freud put on the DL when this first happened? That, and the days away with the wife and new baby, the 15 days are almost up. Instead, he re-tweaks the quad. Ca$hman seems to be going through the motions.

Jeter’s offense is fairly soft, he never did develop real power. The time is now. But there’s nobody home in Yankeeland.

Or, who will tell him. George Costanza?

[92] - “I just think that when trying to discern this evolution with less that several full season’s worth of data the signal is likely to be swamped by the noise.”

The point is we know (statistically) what the noise is so we can estimate what part of the variation is systematic.  Looks to me like the swings aren’t explained by stats so true variability (change in approach, change in innate talent, change in swing tuning, change in types of pitches seen) is significant.  That is, if we’re talking 30% variation on a 10% statistical sample, the systematic variation is 28% via the formula above.  I get 10% from sqrt(100), which is too many walks - for 50 it’s 14%, so 27% systematic.  That means one should be able to see whether a large number of players show true variation inside a season.

As an aside (and I’m sure a real statistician would know better than I), wouldn’t the central limit theorem dictate that our measurements of a player’s true talent would be normally distributed about his mean “true talent” level? Thus, while me may never beg his “true talent” level exactly, we can be reasonably confident that we are dealing with something approaching the mean “true talent” level. I’m genuinely curious about this.

The one thing that you need to take into account here is that there is an age profile in the talent level. In other words, true talent level is likely to be a dynamic, autocorrelated (i.e., correlated with past observations) variable. If you believe that 650 plate appearances is enough sample size in a season, then the seasonal averages would represent the true talent level according to the Central Limit Theorem for that season. The problem, though is, 650 plate appearances might not be enough sample size. A player can have an anomalously bad or good season.

This is why I think the analyses that SG does with peripherals are the ones to focus on, as they likely bear more causal relationship with truly sustainable talent level. Of course I believe they can be refined using fixed effect regression techniques on panel data (repeated observations on the same individual over a period of time), particularly when it comes to outliers and how they age, but the studies have some really solid foundation.

“Don’t you think that players can and sometimes do over-react to a run of bad luck by changing their approach, usually with bad results?”

Walks, though?  I doubt many players know if they’re at 10% vs 14% vs 7% walks.  Anyway, I said “to first order”.  How to measure that effect - hmm.