How dare that Brian Cashman be rewarded for the Yanks not winning the World Series yet again.  This winter, he better trade, Hughes, Austin Jackson and Jesus Montero for Casey Kotchman.  No more fooling around!

To be fair to the foaming-at-the-mouth Cashman-haters: the Wang injury and the fact that Kennedy and Hughes were more than 50 runs below projections that strived for objectivity, these were totally Cashman’s fault.

By the way, another great post, SG.  You never cease to amaze, of impress, and provide the best procrastination fodder in the interwebs.

Color me impressed with all these statistics.  It all makes so much more sense when SG explains it than when I try to puzzle these things out myself.

Also, I’m curious as to whether Ponson or Igawa would have been more egregious in the long run.

tendinitis in Texas

I thought it was subpoenaed in Texas…

Great post.  Is that total for the “Others” really +9?  I get -6 from the righthand column (I was mostly surprised they came about above replacement-level).

So basically, having healthy starters and not having to dip into the scrubs is really important for the success of a baseball team.  Interesting development.

SG,

Maybe my math coprocesser is broken.  If I look at the “Others” breakout, you are listing the total as +9.  I see the three positives adding up to +10 (Aceves, Giese, and Bruney), and the four negatives “adding” up to -15 (Pavano, Rasner, Igawa, Ponson).  So 10 + (-15) = 9?  I’m obviously missing something…

these were totally Cashman’s fault.

Little known facts: Cashman *personally* gave CMW baserunning instructions, and *directed* Eiland to change Hughes’s delivery (leading to injury) and Kennedy to not throw the ball as hard.  It’s true; it must be true!

You beat me to the “math” problems DaPuj.  Great minds thinking alike and all that.  Or we’re being dumb together, one of the two…

The lesson?

Never underestimate the ability of Snacks Pontoon to sneak up on you.

What does it say about me that I had to look up the spelling of “sneak”?

Great minds thinking alike and all that.

Except I got that 10 + (-15) = -6, but other than that, yeah.  Too many chemicals around here.

Ivy, long time. How is Waltham treating you (isn’t that where you currently live)?

So 10 + (-15) = 9?  I’m obviously missing something…

It’s a new math.  Or a bad formula in my spreadsheet.  With rounding it should be a -6, not a +9.  I’ll update the table.

Color me impressed with all these statistics.

Well then you’re far too easily impressed.  This post doesn’t have a single pie chart. 

Also, I’m curious as to whether Ponson or Igawa would have been more egregious in the long run

You know, that’s a great question.  I guess if I had to pick one to be worse going forward, it’d be Snacks.

Looking to 2009:

Wang - should be himself.  185-200 IP, 3.5-4 era.
Joba - great if healthy.  90-120 IP, ~3 ERA?
Hughes - the big question mark.  How many innings can he pitch?  Will those innings be any good?  I still hope.
Kennedy - My hope is that he could out-pitch Igawa or Snacks.  That’s about it.

Looking at that is why I think it’s absolutely imperative to sign CC, and to try and bring back both Moose and Pettitte.  The first one b/c he’s a great pitcher.  The other two b/c the team will need a bunch of non-scrub innings somehow.

I’m curious as to whether Ponson or Igawa would have been more egregious in the long run

Welcome to Chez Yankees.  Tonight we have offer a choice between rotten whale meat and putrid eel sushi.

Welcome to Chez Yankees.  Tonight we have offer a choice between rotten whale meat and putrid eel sushi.

What’s the vegetarian option?

What’s the vegetarian option?

Hmm, obviously not Sabathia.  Edwar probably doesn’t have any actual meat on him, so he could be the veggie option.

I don’t think we’re getting CC.  Just a gut feel.  What is plan B?

plan B is probably AJ Burnett.

a lot of yankee fans don’t seem to like that idea, but i am not one of them. i think Burnett is a much better pitcher than people think, but i am still optimistic that Sabathia will be priced out of everyone’s league except for ours. 

i have also read that Peavey could be on the trade block.  might be a plan C.

I’m stilling pulling for Ben Sheets on a Magglio Ordonez like deal.

As for plan C, I’ve been seeing rumors for Derek Lowe which kinda makes sense in that he’s a durable above average starter.

I think just as big a question as who is how many?  Right now they only have Wang (200+IP) and a combination of Joba (100-140IP) and Hughes (100-140IP) under contract for next year.  As much as I believe Hughes can deliver, there’s still a question mark.  To me, that means they’re looking for 3 pitchers.  Two of them could be Moose and Andy, but that’s still up in the air.

Also, the question is how to work out the innings.  Even though Joba and Hughes will probably make up one full time starter, unless something creative is done (the two-headed monster that’s been brought up) you still need to find a way to either stagger when each one is in the rotation, or have both of them in the rotation to start with the idea to make a mid-season acquisition.  I’m not sure either of those are really viable options.

As for plan C, I’ve been seeing rumors for Derek Lowe which kinda makes sense in that he’s a durable above average starter.

And will likely only want around 3 years.

Two of them could be Moose and Andy, but that’s still up in the air.

Is it unreasonable to expect that Cashman, now that he knows he is the GM, has communicated to both Mussina and Pettite that he needs their decisions sooner rather than later so he can engage himself in the market appropriately? Without both (or even just one) the offseason strategy really changes.

Even though Joba and Hughes will probably make up one full time starter, unless something creative is done (the two-headed monster that’s been brought up) you still need to find a way to either stagger when each one is in the rotation, or have both of them in the rotation to start with the idea to make a mid-season acquisition.

A solid rotation member should put up 210 innings in 34 starts I believe.

Chamberlain should be able to go to 140, Hughes, 120-130. I think you throw out the two headed monster idea and just stagger them. Maybe use the one in relief of the other so that you’re more efficient with your roster spot and you have the built in day off for the bullpen, but don’t make it ‘policy’ to give, say, Joba 4 innings and Hughes 4 innings every time out. I think part of developing them is letting them try to get into the 7th and 8th, through a line up 3 times , etc.

Is it unreasonable to expect that Cashman, now that he knows he is the GM, has communicated to both Mussina and Pettite that he needs their decisions sooner rather than later

Of course not.  I fully expect the two of them to announce what they’re doing near the end of October (hopefully not right before the clinching game of the world series...) Just that any discussion of FA pitchers right now by us amateur GMs has to frame the discussion with how many the Yanks are going to need.

i think Pettitte has been somewhat clear that he will come back if he is wanted.  i’d count him as returning and pencil him into the #4 spot.

Moose is a different story.  you’re right, i think they need to ask him to decide as soon as possible.

i think Pettitte has been somewhat clear that he will come back if he is wanted.  i’d count him as returning and pencil him into the #4 spot.

Moose is a different story.  you’re right, i think they need to ask him to decide as soon as possible.

I think they’re going to give Moose until the 9th day after the WS (FA starts the 10th day after, right?).  Basically, say “we need to know how many pitchers we need when this starts”.  I think that is reasonable, and if Moose has any doubts (either way) he should be able to figure them out by then.

Pettitte I agree.  I think he’s going to wait until after the WS as well to make it official; he just wants to make sure that a month from now his shoulder isn’t still bothering him, because if it is he goes from “offseason workout” to “offseason rehab”, which I don’t think he wants to do any more.  I also think he’ll take a reasonable 1-year contract.

I am liking the two-headed combo suggestion for yet another reason. The answer depends obviously on two things: the average number of inning a fifth starter pitches, and the average number of inning the weakest member of the bullpen pitches.

Here is the scenario. Suppose Moose and Andy both come back, and the Yankees do sign CC. With Wang healthy, that gives them 4 full-time starters, each capable of going 200+ innings (Wang and CC hopefully more than that). Now assume the average fifth starter pitches 140 innings, which is what Joba could pitch. If Hughes could pitch 120-130 innings, he could be pitching the combined inning of two relievers, therefore eliminating the need for one reliever.

If this is possible, then Yankees could conceivably go with 11 pitchers, and that leaves room for an extra bench guy, allowing for more flexibility.

Thoughts?

A solid rotation member should put up 210 innings in 34 starts I believe.

I think that’s beyond solid.  For one, most pitchers don’t get 34 starts anymore.  Sabathia had 35, and only 12 other pitchers had 34.  After that, there were only 18 pitchers to get at least 210 innings (34 had at least 200).  I think to be a “solid” member - in today’s game - you should lower the bar more to 30 starts (75 pitchers) and 180 IP (69 pitchers).  If you have three of those on your staff, you should be in decent shape. 

If they *just* have Wang, Moose, and Pettitte, they should be OK.  Not great, but OK.  Of course, if they add a #2 or better starter to the mix - CC, Peavy, Lowe, Sheets, (sigh) Burnette even - they’ll be even better.

IP wise, I think they only need to get #4/#5 type of work out of Chamberlain/Hughes.  That’s more like 150IP.  Basically, if they can get each of them about 30 innings in the fall/winter leagues, that’s doable.

When you ask someone to make a decision before they are ready you end up with a Brett Favre situation which isnt helpful.  But, yeah, an early decision is much preferred…

but Mussina isn’t still under contract. Not really the same situation.

Brett Favre?  Brett Favre??!!!1?  Good grief, there’s no escaping that name anywhere, not even a mother’s basement-centered baseball stat geek blog is safe!!

Anyway, Moose doesn’t strike me as the kind of guy who would pull a Brett Favre (or a Roger Clemens, I suppose).  He’ll make a decision and stick with it.  Hopefully soon, and hopefully he’ll stay.

Hopefully they’ll make the announcement sometime during the WS (as hinted at upthread), just to make the FOX booth go apoplectic.

but Mussina isn’t still under contract. Not really the same situation.

This also isn’t a matter of agonizing over retiring over a number of years, or of the organization actively pushing you to retire.  It also doesn’t - and probably won’t - be a matter of, “decide by 11/?/2008 or else”.  Likely it will be, “if you know by that date, you have a contract.  If not, we need to move on w/o you, and there may not be a spot available if you decide later to pitch.” I think that’s totally fair, and I think Moose will be more than happy with that.

I’m also thinking at this point it’s likely he will retire.  There’s only two more things for him to play for 1) 300 wins 2) World Series Ring.  The former he’s already got it pretty well figured out; he probably needs three more years, so if he commits for one he’s committing for three (or, not being able to pitch any more and he’s too proud for that).  The latter...I think he’s been on two REALLY good Yankees teams (2001 & 2003) that fell short.  He knows how hard it is, even for a good team.

Derek Lowe’s numbers are very good but since he pitches in Dodger Stadium I thought I’d look at his splits.  Sure enough he pitched much better in LA every year he’s been there.  But maybe this has nothing to do with the park- he always pitched much better at Fenway too, which I consider a hitter’s park.  Maybe they both have slow infields or maybe he is just more comfortable at home.  Maybe he just boozes it up too much on the road.

Yeah, there was some (at least perceived - frankly, IMO, real) hostility that Favre felt from Ted Thompson and/or Mike McCarthy. Most likely from Thompson.

Favre was a legendary Packers player, a legendary NFL player. Mussina is hardly in that camp viz the Yankees, let alone MLB.

Backup plan to CC is probably Burnett, yeah.  I’m on the fence there.  On the one hand, I think he’s a really good pitcher (his ERA this season, I feel, is deceptively high).  On the other hand, he’s always hurt (except this year, when he threw a TON of pitches.  Lovely.). 

Lowe… I’d like to see a projection for him in the AL east.  Bringing him in as a 3rd-4th starter type to replace, say, Pettitte, might be ok.  I’m not sure, though.  I remember him as that type of pitcher 4 years ago.  He’s spent the interim in the NL West.

Without CC, without Moose, but with Pettitte:

1) Wang
2) Pettitte
3) Joba ~100 innings. Short by 75-100 innings.
4) Hughes ~100 innings. Short by 75-100 innings.
5) Scrub-scrub, rinse, rinse.  Scrub-scrub, rinse-rinse.

That’s hideous.  At a minimum, it needs the addition of a durable innings-eater type.  Lowe may be that guy.  Heck, if Moose retires, maybe going after CC and Lowe makes sense.

3) Joba ~100 innings. Short by 75-100 innings.
4) Hughes ~100 innings. Short by 75-100 innings.

I really think we should be expecting more like 130-140.

When you ask someone to make a decision before they are ready you end up with a Brett Favre situation which isnt helpful.

I think Mussina has already made it clear that he’ll know what he wants to do in a month.  He didn’t want to announce that he was hangin’ ‘em up on Sunday specifically to avoid the whole, “Gee, now that I’ve had a few weeks to think about it, I really do want to keep playing” thing.  But I suspect he’s thinking more Clemens than Favre, for obvious reasons.

Burnett was only a bit above average this year based on ERA+ but in the toughest division in the AL he dominated The Yanks, Boston, and Tampa, and has done so since becoming a Jay.  I’m also wondering if he has been helped or hurt by the BlueJay defence and turf field.

j,

I think we can HOPE for 130 innings.  I think the Yankees need to PLAN for less.

I wasn’t comparing him to Brett Favre in that he wants to go somewhere else to play, just in that it’s hard to make a huge decision like whether or not to retire and be absolutely sure about it.  That’s why he probably needs some time.

Yeah, 130-140 innings from Phil & Joba is doable. But the question must be asked, will they make it?

After back-to-back injury plagued seasons (yes, I know it wasn’t his arm) Hughes has to show me, at least, that he’s capable of a healthy season. 

Joba’s injury worries me as well, and it was to his arm. His *stuff* was not as good post-injury. That is obvious from watching him.

No, the Yankees need to plan for 130-140 but have a viable backup in place. They shouldn’t assume failure but should insure against the possibility.

Favre was a legendary Packers player, a legendary NFL player. Mussina is hardly in that camp viz the Yankees, let alone MLB.

20 game win season buys much less than expected.

Lowe… I’d like to see a projection for him in the AL east.

Rough guess is it’d look a lot like Pettitte’s projection, maybe a touch better.  200 IP, 220 H, 20 HR, 50 BB, 140 Ks or so, ERA around 4.25.  Not bad, not great.  I’d rather have Pettitte for one year than Lowe for multiple years.

I’ll do a post about possible starting pitcher options in a few weeks hopefully, once I’ve run CAIRO for 2009.

apparently cashman said on the FAN that Joba will be a starter only next year.

sounds good to me.

It’s not only readers of this site, but the readers of Bronx Banter are also pretty fed up with Lombardi. Given that Mr. Bronx Banter Alex Belth (I think the best writer among Yankee bloggers; SG is the best analyst, although I love Cliff Corcoran as well) publicly backs that guy, I find that significant.

Anyway, I will stick to my position of not visiting his blog. I will probably visit Abraham’s blog, though. I generally have less problems with Abraham’s blog, because he usually presents news, not opinions (unless it comes to Girardi and A-Rod), but his reader’s comments are the absolute worst.

me too

I’m also wondering if he has been helped or hurt by the BlueJay defence and turf field.

My impression was that Toronto had a pretty good D by the numbers, but that might be out-dated.

I generally have less problems with Abraham’s blog, because he usually presents news, not opinions (unless it comes to Girardi and A-Rod), but his reader’s comments are the absolute worst.

I made the mistake of going to Abraham’s blog today and reading the comments on Cashman returning.  There were more positives than I thought there would be, but a lot of ignorant, angry people.  Reading comments on Abraham’s blog is kinda like when you have a scab on your arm or something.  You know it’s going to hurt, but sometimes you pick at it anyway.

My impression was that Toronto had a pretty good D by the numbers, but that might be out-dated.

Zone rating said they were the best defense in baseball this year, 44 runs saved above average.  38 of that was in the infield though, not sure if that means Burnett didn’t get as much of an advantage as someone like Halladay would have.

The Jays also had the vacuum-cleaner that is John MacDonald at SS.  That guy just eats up anything coming anywhere near him.

No, the Yankees need to plan for 130-140 but have a viable backup in place. They shouldn’t assume failure but should insure against the possibility.

I think - just think - that the Yanks are going to try to get Joba and Hughes enough innings in the off-season to get them to around 150 next year.  If they can do that, that would be more than all but two (Moose and Pettitte) of their starters did this year.

I think their backup plan already is better.  I think Kennedy V 3.0 (V2.0 had some bugs) will be better, and also now he’s 6th/7th instead of 5th on the depth chart.  I think Aceves is better than Rasner.  That’s not to mention a healthy Horne, Coke will begin in AAA as a starter I think, etc.  They still need to sign two pitchers for their top three spots (Wang is the only one so far)…

My impression was that Toronto had a pretty good D by the numbers, but that might be out-dated.

Just looking at HBT, ordering AL pitchers by =1&orderBy=der&direction=DESC&page=1" target="_blank"]DER, Halladay and Litsch are high on the list, but Burnette is pretty low.  Burnette’s GB% was also the same as Litsch’s (Halladay best in league), so...seems the defense did hurt Burnette, but not sure why if it helped Halladay and Litsch.

Well that link failed miserably!  Takes you to the right page though, so I won’t try to fail again!

The Jays also had the vacuum-cleaner that is John MacDonald at SS.  That guy just eats up anything coming anywhere near him.

Ha!

The Jays also had the vacuum-cleaner that is John MacDonald at SS.

Only about a third of the time.

I think Kennedy V 3.0 (V2.0 had some bugs) will be better, and also now he’s 6th/7th instead of 5th on the depth chart.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but as of right now, he’s fourth.

Re: MacDonald at SS

Only about a third of the time.

Well, yeah, but any time you have the opportunity to put the amount or grit and scrap on the field that David Eckstein represents for ~500 defensive innings, you have to do it.

It seems IPK may be behind both Aceves and Coke on the depth chart considering he didn’t get any Major League action in September…

8 2 0 0 1 9 0, quite a line for Hamels.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but as of right now, he’s fourth.

Well, maybe fifth (Aceves is likely ahead of him right now).  Which is why they need to sign/trade for two pitchers.  Preferably CC for 5 yrs/5 million and trade Shelley Duncan for Peavy, but I’ll understand if that doesn’t work out…

Don’t forget to add a couple of team options at $3mill/yr to CC’s contract.

Brad Lidge = Heart Attack City.

I’m kind of hoping for a swift demise of the Brewers’ postseason, otherwise CC will pitch another 150 innings before it’s all over.

I really believe that Ian Kennedy 2009 will be much better than Ian Kennedy 2008. Wherever he pitches in the majors.

Hey! If I’m wrong, half the posters here will remember this, if I’m right, probably only SG will remember.

I’m sure you’ll remind us, constantly.

Oh, I don’t think SG was the only one who remembered your 88 win prediction.  But I also seem to remember that you based your prediction on the fact that the team as constructed was an 88 win team.  The team this season that won 89 games wasn’t really anything like the team heading into spring training.  Losing Wang, Posada, and Matsui for very significant chunks of time definitely hurt, a lot, and that’s over and above any of the expected missing time/injuries suffered.

predicting that Kennedy will manage to pitch better next year than this is a pretty low risk prediction.

Walking every other batter finally caught up to Dempster.

Is this game really not on TV?

It’s on TBS

I can’t believe that these games are blacked out on mlb.tv.  I mean, who in their right mind would watch the game on a computer if they had a tv available to watch?  Are they really that worried about a large segment of their audience not watching on TV if they broadcast the game online?

I’m also pissed because I couldn’t find anything that allowed me to cancel my subscription, I was forced to send their tech support an email asking to cancel.

. . .  and I turn it on just in time to watch Manny crush a pitch that was at his ankles.

Oooh, the cubs are throwing Jeff Samarzdja out there to see if they can break the single-game walk record.

Question about Hughes for 2009:

He threw 146 innings in 2006. According to the 30 inning theory, doesn’t that mean he can increase next season to 176 innings, or there about? Or is it based of his previous season’s IP totals, putting him at a mere 120 or so (depending on his AFL totals)? I’m hoping it’s the former.

Derek Lowe looks like a less putrid option for our ‘09 rotation after tonight. But maybe that’s just me.

I thought it was subpoenaed in Texas…

DaPuj, nice. Feel like there aren’t too many THS fans around.

in barlight, she looked alright

Been a big fan of Craig Finn since the Lifter Puller days.  He’s a huge baseball fan as well.  I saw them play a couple years ago right as the Twins were playing in the ALDS, he was super pumped.

Yes, please get a couple men on so that Joe Torre will go to his closer, who has a bad elbow, with a 4-run lead, in the 8th.

Grab a pint down at Hi-Fi in the East Village. Craig Finn or one of the guys may be pouring the beer for you. Or at least till they recently “hit it big.”

Did someone schedule a Home Run Derby at Wrigley tonight and forget to mention it?

Well, that was quite a spanking.

Man, I want the Cubs to win. I mean, 1908, then 2008? They won’t even pay attention until 2108!

I’m thinking more 1908 then 2908.

Since I’m on record as a Jon Lester fan, I will root for him to pitch well only to have his bullpen blow the game in a spectacular and heartbreaking fashion.

Waltham is great, and I work at Suffolk University in Boston.  However, this means that the Green Line and Fenway are a way into work, which I try to avoid because then coming home becomes sardines in a can.

Watching Torre in a Dodgers uniform giving Manny signals is still kinda bizarro-world to me.

Nice to see the Phightin’ Phills win today.  Would have liked to see Uncle Joe lose but, hey, also fun to watch the Cubbies lose.  Would obviously like to see those ugly red and white uniforms beat those ugly red and gray clowns. 

Rumors of Yanks willing to trade Cano for SP rather than sign CC.  If CC really wants to go to LA then, when that deal gets close, perhaps we can get Cano for Billingsly (as is being suggested).  Perhgaps we’d have to sweaten that deal with a Coke, IPK, Aceves, etc.  Who is more valuable, Robbie Cano circa 2006/07 or 2008 Billingsly?  If we trade Cano for Billingsly we can try to sign Teixera, Manny/Dunn/Burrell, and Mark Ellis or Orlando Hudson.

Great job, SG, but one thing that those projections didn’t really take into account (unless I missed it) was that scoring was down overall this year, so the Yankees were--all things considered--actually considerably worse than even your pessimistic projections. Don’t you think?

Hey, did you guys know Jon Lester had cancer?  And that Jason Varitek is considered to be invaluable as a game-caller?  It’s true, TBS announcers have told me so!

In the post on offense SG mentioned that scoring caught up near the end of the season. 

One other thing, while offense in the AL was down for most of this year compared to last year, the difference has narrowed signficantly of late to the point that it’s probably no longer statistically significant. The league average line of .268/.336/.420 equates to a BR/650 of 80 this season compared last year’s line of .271/.338/.423 which equates to a BR/650 of 81.

Who is suggesting Cano for Billingsley? Certainly not the Dodgers, who are kind of busy right now.

Who is suggesting Cano for Billingsley

I sense NYDN’s Bill Madden is mixed up in this somehow.

Goddamn.  All the teams I dislike most are playing baseball and the Yankees are not.

It’s for the best, Frogster.  Would you really want to see our Bombers mauled by the LAAoAOCCAUSA, again?

Hmm, another year, and I still find myself wondering how Chip Caray has a job.

Jesus, Vladdy.

that was fucking dumb

Would you really want to see our Bombers mauled by the LAAoAOCCAUSA, again?

It’s a five-game series.  Anyone can win.

I think the Yankees, as constituted this September, would have had a shot-- especially since, if they had been in real contention, they would have had to consider getting Joba back in the rotation.

It’s a five-game series.  Anyone can win.

As long as by “anyone” you mean “anyone who isn’t the Angels if they’re playing Boston.”

That’s exactly what I meant.

Wow, the great American folding act known as the LA Angels facing the Red Sox.  What turds.

Wow, that was some fine night of shitty game results.

If the rest of the playoffs go like this...well, that would be bad.

IMHO Moose will not make the Hall of Fame if he retires now. He lacks Cy Young or dramatic post-season victories. Really the only thing that could get Moose in would be a large enough number of career wins. Jim Kaat (283 wins) and Bert Blyleven (287 wins) are not in.  Obviously 300 wins would be enough for Moose. I think, even 290 to 295 might be enough.  If he retires now, it shows that being in the HOF isn’t that important to him.  Seems strange that fans like me may care more about Moose being in the HOF than Moose himself does.

Bill Madden’s plan to fix the Yankees was hilariously bad. I like Bill Madden, for the most part, but holy crap - the guy’s plan involved the Yankees spending a shit load MORE money to be WORSE than this year.

I couldn’t believe it.

He thinks the Yanks should go with a Molino/Zaun platoon behind the plate and Damon at the DH. For serious!!!

Then he comes up with some DeJesus trade out of thin air. He already has the Yankees trading Cano and Hughes for Holliday (a deal neither team makes, I don’t think - I guess the Yankees would do it before the Rockies would), but that’s at least a real trade - it’s something you could possibly fathom - DeJesus he has the Yankees getting for, you know, some prospects.

And Matsui is traded for, you know, some prospects.

Agreed, David, no way does Moose make it at the moment. He needs some hardcore counting numbers to make it in.

In 10 years 270 wins will look a lot more like a hardcore counting number.  By then it will be 12 years since the last 300-game winner.  So Moose makes it in about year 6 of his candidacy. 

No dramatic post-season victories?  Who outdueled Zito 1-0 with the Yankees down by 2 games to none?

I think David is just saying what the dumb voters will be saying if Moose is up for election in five years.

Just like how they WILL be giving credit to Pettitte for Game 5, they won’t be giving Moose credit for that game.

Especially since Jeter won that game single-handedly.

DUH.

By the by, you got me thinking back to that game, and I literally got a chill.

Holy cow, was that an amazing moment to be watching live Yankees baseball.

WOW.

Everyone - quick - describe your memories of the Flip!

Everyone - quick - describe your memories of the Flip!

Five hours later...boy my memory is a little fuzzy (could have been alcohol involved) of the actual moment.  I remember a feeling of “crap”, and then seeing Spencer’s throw, “CRAP!”.  Then, “what the hell is Jeter doing...YES!”.  I think there was a jump on my end.

I think David is just saying what the dumb voters will be saying if Moose is up for election in five years.

I think Moose has a better shot than most.

1) He’s got 100 more wins than losses.  As McCarver pointed out earlier this year, no one who has done that is *not* in the Hall.  I’m pretty sure some voters will take, “if everyone else who has done it is in the Hall, this guy MUST be worthy!”
2) He *did* win his 20 games, and also it game in “record” fashion (oldest to ever win 20 for the first time).  It has a bit of novelty to it, which I think will help.
3) He’s going out on a high note, which I think will help.
4) Finally, HBT recently one of the authors posted a little study about HOF voting.  One of the things he (she?) found was that there is only one player (don’t remember whom) that got at least 50% of the votes in one year, that DIDN’T make the Hall (not counting those like Rice who are still eligible).  Everyone else, eventually made it; their vote-totals quickly increased after reaching 50%.  Can you really *not* see Moose getting 50% some year?  There are a handful of pitchers who just retired (or are retiring in a year or two) that are ahead of Moose, but after that I think he’s got an 8-10 year gap before other worthy pitchers start retiring (e.g. Johan).

I think he’s in.  Maybe not until 2028, but he’ll be in.

i agree with Mike.

i think 2008 put Moose in the Hall.

i think voters are starting to grasp the significance of pitching through the steroid era in the AL East.

2) He *did* win his 20 games, and also it game in “record” fashion (oldest to ever win 20 for the first time).  It has a bit of novelty to it, which I think will help.

And while I would have been happy if he just vultured the win (or play against the other teams b-squad), he really had to earn the 20 (and 19th, after getting rocked on the elbow). 

I’m so happy for Moose.

Not that it will get much consideration, but Moose really did redefine his pitching style late in his career (and a few times as well).  You don’t see many pitchers do that. Moose was really a thinking pitcher and it showed.  I am really happy he got 20.  A nice accomplishment and something for us to cherish from this disappointing season.