Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Why Did the 2008 Yankees Disappoint?(Defense Edition)
Before getting to the pitching, here’s a quick look at how the 2008 Yankees performed defensively compared to their projections. For my defensive statistics, I use zone rating. If you want to read more about how these numbers are calculated you can read this post or this post. If you want a good general overview of zone rating, read this article by Chris Dial.
First up, here’s how I had the Yankees projected on a team level at each position compared to how they actually ended up doing.
Anyone that wants to look at the details behind the defensive projections can check out this entry so I won’t rehash all that here.
Here’s a rundown by position.
Catcher
rvTE +/-: Run value of throwing errors
rvFE +/-: Run value of fielding errors
rvWP+PB+/-: Run value of wild pitches and passed balls
rvSBA+/-: Run value of stolen base attempts
rvSB+/-: Run value of stolen bases
rvCS+/-: Run value of caught stealings
RSAA: Runs saved above average
Jorge Posada’s a very valuable player at catcher, but that’s because of his bat. His defense is usually average or slightly below average. Posada’s injury led to Jose Molina playing a lot more than expected. As we know, he hit like 1991 Bob Geren, but his glove was outstanding. Using my catcher defense system, he was the best defensive catcher in the AL, and second in MLB behind Jason Kendall.
Posada’s shoulder problems led him to be awful, 5 runs below average in just 234 innings. It’s going to be tough to project the 2009 Yankees without knowing if Posada can handle catching the majority of the time. If he can’t throw better than he did in 2008, he probably gives back the majority of his offensive value on defense.
First Base
G: Games
GS: Games started
INN: Defensive innings at position
Ch: Fieldable chances
PO: Putouts
A: Assists
E: Errors
DP: Double plays
ZR: Zone rating (PM/Ch)
PM: Plays made
AvgPM: Plays made by an average defender over the same # of chances
Diff: PM - AvgPM
RS: Runs saved above average (Diff times run value of play not made)
This projected to be a sore spot defensively because Jason Giambi is just not a good defender. Giambi had a ZR of .801 compared to his projected .796, which is basically the same thing. The Richie Sexson pickup cost the Yankees another four runs at 1B in just 19 games. Nice.
Replacing Giambi with an average defender is probably a ten run upgrade. If they replace him with Teixeira it’s probably close to a 15 run defensive upgrade.
Second Base
Robinson Cano had a very strange season on both sides of the ball. We know he hit like garbage for most of the year. What’s interesting about his defense is he was actually playing very well through July 9, as detailed here. Cano went from a zone rating of .865 and a runs saved above average of +8 to a zone rating of .799 and a runs saved above average of -8 in a span of 49 games. From September 5 on he seemed to recover, putting up a zone rating of .884 and saving 4 runs above average over the rest of the season.
Cano will probably project as an average defender next year instead of a plus defender because of this year, but that’d be a 5 run upgrade.
Third Base
If you just look at the runs saved total for Rodriguez it may seem like he was disappointing, but it’s interesting to note that his zone rating of .786 is actually the highest of his career at 3B. So what happened? The average AL 3B zone rating shot way up to .791 this year, after being about .767 from 2004 - 2007. In a league where .767 is average, Rodriguez would have been a +6 defender.
Morgan Ensberg and Wilson Betemit were both craptacular in limited action, and that’s the main reason 3B was so negative overall. As someone who thought an Ensberg/Betemit platoon could approach league average when Rodriguez opted out, let’s just say it’s a good thing I’m not running the Yankees…
Rodriguez probably won’t be any better defensively next year. At his age we should expect him to lose a run or two of value defensively, so I’d say we should expect 3B to be 2 runs worse next year.
Shortstop
He’s the poster boy for defensive ineptitude, and many of the people who use defensive metrics can barely contain their glee when using them to tear apart his game, but Derek Jeter had a good defensive season this year if you believe zone rating. Whether it was an offseason training regimen that improved his agility, better positioning, or a more favorable distibution of balls in play, the difference between last year was stark, both statistically and visually. Realistically we shouldn’t expect it to happen again in 2009, but he was projected around a -10 coming into 2008, and probably will project to be a -6 or -7 in 2009. 2008 Jeter was more valuable than 2007 Jeter because of the glove.
With the AG gone, backup SS is looking like a problem next year. Cody Ransom did not impress in Fenway defensively.
Left Field
I thought Johnny Damon would end up better in LF and for a while he was above average before falling off, but if he’s the LF next year he should be average or slightly below. Xavier Nady didn’t really impress in LF, but for his career he’s been an average RF (-2 LF in a very small sample size). Hideki Matsui has to be a full-time DH at this point. He was awful this year in LF, and his knees won’t help that.
Center Field
We all know Melky couldn’t hit this year, but he did play solid defense. Damon wasn’t awful in CF, although I doubt he could hold up full-time. Brett Gardner only got 22 games in CF, but his ZR was ridiculously good and he saved 3 runs in very limited time. While I still am not sold on him being able to hit enough to be a starting CF, if his glove and baserunning are as good as they appear to be, it’s very possible he can start in CF with a slightly below average bat. It depends on how below average he is of course.
Right Field
Coming into 2008, Bobby Abreu projected to be about average in RF. Instead he was the absolute worst defensive player in the AL according to zone rating. Abreu’s not obviously bad as far as making errors, but he’s extremely tentative and just doesn’t seem to get to balls that most other players get to. Still, he’s probably not as bad of a defender as his 2008 stats make him look. If I had to project him next year I’d probably project him around a -10 or so. If I were the Yankees I’d still offer him arbitration and hope he declines, because he probably will still be a pretty good player next year if you get stuck with him. I wouldn’t entertain the thought of signing him to a multi-year extension though. Xavier Nady should be able to fill RF next year and play average or slightly below average defense, although he’s not going to hit like Abreu has.
So going into 2008, the Yankees looked to be about two wins worse than an average defense. They actually wound up four wins worse, and that’s almost entirely on Abreu. They should be able to upgrade 1B fairly easily (let’s say +10), Cano should be better at 2B(+5), Jeter will likely be a fair bit worse(-10), Rodriguez and Damon will probably be a little worse(-4 combined). CF depends on if they go with Melky/Gardner or bring someone in(??), and Nady should be better than 2008 Abreu(+15). If Posada is the catcher, that’s a defensive hit(-15).
So minus CF, adding all that up we get +1 compared to 2008. So yeah, don’t expect a much better defense next year.
Comments
So yeah, don’t expect a much better defense next year.
Sob.
Is there anyway to project Jeter’s defense as a CF?
Who is available as a SS via trade or free agency?
Is there anyway to project Jeter’s defense as a CF?
WAG?
Who is available as a SS via trade or free agency?
2009 FA SS (* = 2009 option):
Orlando Cabrera CWS
Alex Cintron CWS
Alex Cora BOS
Craig Counsell * MIL
Adam Everett MIN
Rafael Furcal LAD
Cesar Izturis STL
Ramon Martinez LAD
Edgar Renteria * DET
Juan Uribe CWS
There is a work around for poor defense— strike out a lot of guys and don’t walk many. Yanks were fifth in the AL in strikeouts, and sixth best in walks allowed. That’s pretty good, but it could improve further, especially with certain signings.
Is there anyway to project Jeter’s defense as a CF?
Actually, Tango did some stuff a few years ago about translating defensive stats across positions. I’m not sure I ever really bought it. SG might remember it and have a link.
Thanks.
I guess what I meant was, how does he project in CF?
That’s pretty good, but it could improve further, especially with certain signings.
I hear they got this kid who can really throw the ball hard. I think he strikes out a few batters.
Is there anyway to project Jeter’s defense as a CF?
Who is available as a SS via trade or free agency?
Not going to happen. Just isn’t. There’s a better chance Grady Sizemore (yeah, I’d trade Hughes & Jackson for him) is starting in CF next year for the Yankees than Jeter.
Is there anyway to project Jeter’s defense as a CF?
Nothing I feel really comfortable with, although we could try to use Tango Tiger’s data from this post.
The assumption in that post is that the tools to play each position can be consolidated into a single number, which is sketchy.
C 67
CF 60
SS 59
2B 56
3B 54
RF 50
LF 43
1B 41
So if a player is an average RF, he should be +7 in LF. Looks like moving Jeter to CF would be a one run downgrade. Moving him to RF would be a nine run upgrade though, so maybe that makes more sense.
Again, this probably isn’t much better than MC’s WAG, but it’s something I guess.
Oh, as far as what post 8 means for Jeter, if he’s a -7 SS now, then he’d theoretically be a -8 CF, and a +2 RF.
So Molina would be +17 in CF? problem solved.
So Molina would be +17 in CF? problem solved.
Don’t do that! I can only laugh so hard at work w/o raising suspicion!
CF is not an older player’s position. It’s certainly no place for Jeter. Personally, I would love to see what Gardner can do in 200-250 at bats next year.
Personally, I would love to see what Gardner can do in 200-250 at bats next year.
Does Molino get the other 400-odd ABs there?
Can’t the Yanks just trade Chris Britton for Curtis Granderson? That would solve this mess in a hurry.
Defensive improvement or not, everyone ready for another offseason of people speculating about Jeter moving to the OF?
Personally, I would love to see what Gardner can do in 200-250 at bats next year.
Yes, or even more if he earns it. I threw out the other day, it could be possible for the Yankees to sign an outfielder (for arguments sake we’ll say Burrell), to normally play LF. Damon in CF, Nady in RF, and maybe Miranda at 1B. When a lefty pitches, move Burrell to RF (I think for next year at least he’ll be decent in RF), Nady to 1B, Damon in LF, and put Gardner in CF (this year anyway in the minors he hit lefties a little better than righties).
To be clear, I’d rather have Tex or even Dunn at 1B at the right contract, or sign a couple of outfielders and stick Nady at 1B full time. But I don’t particularly think this is a horrible option for next year, as we can’t be sure who the team can sign.
I threw out Juan Rivera as an option too. He should be inexpensive, can probably be signed for one year, and is a decent defender. Not a great hitter, but probably good for a .270/.325/.470 line or so. 2010 OF free agents include Matt Holliday and Carl Crawford, so a stopgap in 2009 might make more sense.
...it could be possible for the Yankees to sign an outfielder (for arguments sake we’ll say Burrell), to normally play LF. Damon in CF, Nady in RF, and maybe Miranda at 1B. When a lefty pitches, move Burrell to RF (I think for next year at least he’ll be decent in RF), Nady to 1B, Damon in LF, and put Gardner in CF…
You know, this would all be a helluva lot easier if Nady could play CF. His bat looks pretty good there, even sans career year. But if he’s -5 in right, I guess he’s -15 in center.
I know I’m being a total kiss-ass, but you’re the best baseball blogger on the net.
Thanks yankz. Do I get a trophy to put in my mom’s basement?
Do I get a trophy to put in my mom’s basement?
Yep, the Golden VORPie. Call up Jon Heyman, he’ll tell you where to get one.
It seems like there used to be a lot more unlikely CFers. Tony Armas. Gorman Thomas. I wonder how guys like that cut it defensively. Didn’t the Babe play a bunch of games in CF.
I really don’t want to grade these essays, do I?
“I know I’m being a total kiss-ass”
“I know I’m <strike>being a total kiss-ass</strike> belaboring the obvious”
Fixed.
“I really don’t want to grade these essays, do I?”
It’s a holiday, isn’t it?
Apropos. Only slightly funny, but it’s free.
Request: Is there any way you could include a “Continued after the jump” or something for these long posts, so we don’t have scroll really far and look for the comments link?
I wish I could justify spending 1-2 minutes on each essay.
Request: Is there any way you could include a “Continued after the jump” or something for these long posts, so we don’t have scroll really far and look for the comments link?
Yeah, we have that functionality implemented already, I’ll split these long posts up going forward.
It’s a holiday, isn’t it?
As a committed secularist, I would feel like a hypocrite if I used genetics as an excuse to shirk my responsibilities.
It’s a holiday, isn’t it?
As a committed secularist, I would feel like a hypocrite if I used genetics as an excuse to shirk my responsibilities.
Heh. Half the people in my office are missing today, making me feel incredibly guilty for shirking my genetics.
Thank you.
IE @12—Exactly. This is no stage of Jeter’s career to put him in CF, what are people thinking? RF? Okay, but he’ll never agree.
As for Gardner, as I posted weeks ago, many here had little problem giving Melky 1425 AB’s. Gardner deserves half that chance. Unless they have a superior plan.
I’d be happy with a stop-gap, if only so they can see what A-Jax does in AAA.
Missing out on Beltran really threw a wrench in the works, eh?
what are people thinking?
Well, it’s one person, actually. Not people. And he was just asking a question. A couple of us decided to try to give him an answer instead of just insulting him. I know you disagree with that approach, but c’est la vie. I would have thought that you’d have at least appreciated the humor of Molino as +17 in CF, which we wouldn’t have had without the original question.
I agree that CF is a young man’s game. This is why it’s so important to develop center fielders from within the organization. Any free agent CF is going to be at least 27 or 28 and likely past their defensive prime.
If Gardner (or Austin Jackson) is not the answer, the Yankes need to seriously consider trading from their stock of young pitchers to bring in someone who can play center.
you’d have at least appreciated the humor of Molino as +17 in CF
So wait, you’re saying Molino wouldn’t be a +17 in CF?
This Molino would definitely be at least +17 CF. Think of his range out there! Cannon(s) for arm(s), too.
Cashman is back
Yes.
So wait, you’re saying Molino wouldn’t be a +17 in CF?
You’re right, I was being hasty. After a careful and painstaking review of my proprietary defensive data and analytical methodology, I can state with 95% confidence that Molino would save 17.2 +/- 1.5 runs per 150 games in center field. This is relative to playing without a center fielder, of course.
Also, the second poll on that page is awful. Trade Beltran in order to free up cash for K Rod… Really?
good. now get to work.
i think it was very important for him to come back, not so much because of who he is, but because of who he is not.
i can’t prove this obviously, but i doubt that a new GM coming into the organization would have the same autonomy that Cashman fought so hard for.
keeping Hank’s nose out of things is the most important thing here, not which specific name is on the GM desk. there are others who could do Cashman’s job, i’m sure. but i would guess that if Cashman left and say, Oppenheimer was promoted, the role of GM would be a joint effort with Hank Steinbrenner at least for the first few years. maybe even now it will only be 80/20 Cashman/Hank, but it’s still a victory.
Also, the second poll on that page is awful. Trade Beltran in order to free up cash for K Rod… Really?
Hey, if that’s what they want to do, I know a team not too far from Queens in need of a CFer. They’d probably take him off the Mets’ hands for a B-level prospect or two.
So, it seems like the Trader was good at his trades (offense and defense considered) in 2008.
SG, just to pile work on you, can you review that contract when you have a chance? I remember you taking a pessimistic view on the signing at the time, and Larry defended the decision at the time. Can you evaluate how that has worked out? Thanks in advance.
What a prima donna that Cashman is; making people wait 36 hours before deciding whether or not to stay; the nerve of that man.
Best part of the linked piece is that it’s Hal, not Hank, who is dealing with Cashman on this. Hank handling the bluster while Hal actually runs things sounds like an excellent division of labor to me.
Trade Beltran in order to free up cash for K Rod… Really?
we have plenty of relievers to fix their bullpen…
When you guys put it like that it seems like a much better idea.
Off topic, but Mike Francesa claims that David Wright is an inferior player to Kevin Youkilis. I changed that channel, but not before vomiting.
David Wright is starting to become the A-Rod of Queens.
it’s ridiculous of course, but he is starting to wear the “unclutch” label.
i don’t watch a ton of mets games, but i would take Wright off their hands if they want. he could play 1B.
Morgan Ensberg and Wilson Betemit were both craptacular in limited action, and that’s the main reason 3B was so negative overall. As someone who thought an Ensberg/Betemit platoon could approach league average when Rodriguez opted out, let’s just say it’s a good thing I’m not running the Yankees…
SG, seriously man, you’re going about this thing all the wrong way.
You only mention the stuff you predicted correctly and brag about it. Duh!
If you never mention stuff you got wrong, it didn’t happen, right? Right!
I can’t believe you didn’t know this.
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