I highly doubt Bay has been that bad defensively that he’s a drag on the Red Sox.  Just a guess, but he probably doesn’t belong in this list.

Oops, yeah, that includes his defense in Pittsburgh.  I’ll fix it.

Usain Bolt. Wow!!!

That is a much healthier discussion than the drags of AL.

That is a much healthier discussion than the <strike>drags</strike> dregs of AL.

Fixed.

I have to admit, that produces a much better effect. Although, I am resigned to Yankees not making post-season.

All I ask of WOE is to show up for Mussina’s starts.

Now that I have expressed this publicly, I have probably jinxed Mussina. Flame away.

OLIMPIC SPOILER ALERT

I’m at work and didn’t see it. Does anyone has a link to a video of the 200m final. And was it as impressive as the 100m?

Although, I am resigned to Yankees not making post-season.

Oh, don’t worry - Yankees are included in the “dregs” category.

I’m very surprised that Coco gets a -13 on defense.  Wasn’t it only last year that he was considered one of the top defensive CFs?

I also find it hard to believe (and granted I haven’t watched any Mariners games this season) that a 1B could accumulate a -18 in zone rating.

Did Melky not make the list based on performance or because he’s been sent down?

I’m very surprised that Coco gets a -13 on defense.  Wasn’t it only last year that he was considered one of the top defensive CFs?

Yeah, but last year was way out of line with his past CF numbers, and from what I’ve seen Red Sox fans agree he’s been worse this year, although this number probably overstates it.

Did Melky not make the list based on performance or because he’s been sent down?

Performance.  -5 on offense, but +8 on defense, which shocked me.

More fun fact about Usain Bolt: He started out as a cricketer, and a fast bowler. The cricketing world (and in particular, West Indies) lost a great prospect, but on balance, he chose the right career. What a talent!

Performance.  -5 on offense, but +8 on defense, which shocked me.

So as bad as he’s been he’s basically average for a CF?  If the Yankees were hitting anything like they should be (about an extra run per-game), I’m sure we could live with an average CF.

Yesterday the dicussion was partly about if the Yanks should look to upgrade in CF.  Of course if they make other moves to upgrade the offense (e.g. Tex, Burrell/Dunn, cloning Ruth), I still think starting with Melky in CF isn’t a bad thing.  Obviously next year is his last chance…

I’d really like to see Melky rebound a bit in AAA before I commit to giving him another year.

-5 on offense, but +8 on defense, which shocked me.

Could have really used +2 catches on defense last night. 

Also, I am offended that Cano doesn’t make this list.  How about a list of players who have underperformed projections?  (Not to assign you work, SG, but it could be done on some upcoming day that we’re trying to avoid discussing another pathetic loss.)

guys, look on the bright side, Halladay is pitching tomorrow night.

yfinBrazil -

try this:

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x6huay_jo-pekin-record-sur-200m-de-bolt_sport

Bolt is unreal.  Johnson said he didn’t think Bolt could break his record.  He was wrong.

So as bad as he’s been he’s basically average for a CF?

This is scaled against replacement level, not average.  So he’s 3 runs better than replacement level.  Probably -15 against average.

Thanks a ton, Yatt.

He left the competition at least two body lengths behind. And running as effortlessly as ever.

guys, look on the bright side, Halladay is pitching tomorrow night.

Well, they DID have a chance last night against Burnett, so…

Yes, I’m delusional, why do you ask?

Also, I am offended that Cano doesn’t make this list.

he’s #83, -1 on offense, -3 on defense, overall -4 so he just missed.

How about a list of players who have underperformed projections?

I like this idea, I’ll do a post about players who have most diverged from their projections, good and bad.

I’d really like to see Melky rebound a bit in AAA before I commit to giving him another year.

Well, on the bright side, it looks like he’s remembered how to walk already (5 BB in 9 PAs).

And if he does well in AAA, he has to come back up, you can’t give up on a 23 year old who can beat up AAA pitching.

This is scaled against replacement level, not average.  So he’s 3 runs better than replacement level.  Probably -15 against average.

Ah, thus the “AR” instead of “AA”.  That makes more sense.

And if he does well in AAA, he has to come back up, you can’t give up on a 23 year old who can beat up AAA pitching.

Very, very true.  It’s even hard to give up on a 24 year-old (if he fails again next year).  But it’s very possible both Gardner and Jackson will have passed him on the depth-chart by 2010 if he doesn’t hit at least like 2006 Melky.

you can’t give up on a 23 year old who can beat up AAA pitching

I completely agree, which is why I remain hopeful some intensive coaching against minor league pitching can still turn his career around.

That BB number is deceptive b/c he was essentially intentionally walked 3 times in his first game from what I read.

Am I reading it right that your method measures offense and pitching against replacement level but defense against average?  If so, is there a statistical reason for it?

That BB number is deceptive b/c he was essentially intentionally walked 3 times in his first game from what I read.

Oh that’s lame. Damnit, I should have known better.

Against Greinke, Meche and Burnett we scored 2 earned runs in 20.2 innings, against Bannister we scored 12 runs in 1+ innings.  What does this say?  Can this team not hit any pitcher with a pulse or is their approach totally amiss or does half this team lack heart.  I don’t know.  Smoltz said of the 96 Yankees in a game we held them in check that every at bat was a war.  Now most at bats eems more like surrender.  WOEful!

Am I reading it right that your method measures offense and pitching against replacement level but defense against average?  If so, is there a statistical reason for it?

More like a philosphical reason.  If a player cannot hit better than replacement level, then I assume that he is at least an average fielder, or he wouldn’t be in the major leagues. 

I just don’t believe that a replacement level player on both offense and defense should see any major league time.

This method does give us an issue with rating DHs, but I think what I’m going to do with them going forward is assign them a -10 defensive hit.

27—Thanks SG.  Although over the years it did seem like Torre had a certain fondness for replacement level offensive and defensive players so long as they were “proven” veterans. 

Since it’s an aggregate measure, using average defense shouldn’t matter unless ... do some positions have a greater difference between replacement level defense and average defense than other positions?  (e.g., is the replacement level first baseman 6 runs worse defensively than the average first baseman while the replacement level catcher is 17 runs worse?)

“Now most at bats eems more like surrender.  WOEful!”

Yeah, they should just go up there wiggling poles with white flags instead of bats.

Since October won’t be all that fun to watch this year, I guess the only thing I’m looking forward to is 24: Exile in November.  It’s been a while since we’ve seen Jack Bauer kick some ass.

Shouldn’t this have been a pie chart somehow??

I’d like to see a pie chart of runners on vs. runners scored for the all the AL teams… Could the Yankees be dead last in this?

Posted on WasWatching.com

If these numbers are true, Giambi must not be back in 2009.

************

antone on August 20th, 2008

Giambi vs Power Pitchers:
.172 AVG/.298 OBP/.306 SLG/.604 OPS/161 PA

Giambi vs Relief Pitchers:
.177 AVG/.326 OBP/.319 SLG/.645 OPS/138 PA

Giambi Last 28 Days:

.221 AVG/.338 OBP/.397 SLG/.735 OPS/80 PA

If these numbers are true, Giambi must not be back in 2009.

yeah, i think i’ve come to a similar conclusion.

fun guy, but it’s time to move on.

“fun guy, but it’s time to move on.”

Yeah, he can only mash finesse guys like Paul Byrd and Mark Buehrle at this point in his career.  Anybody with a good fastball he seemingly doesn’t have a prayer against.

SG—What has the team done vs. power pitchers. Relief pitchers?

When you have the time that is.

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/1114351,CST-SPT-carol19.article

Carlos Quentin’s handling of MVP talk >> Big Papi’s

do some positions have a greater difference between replacement level defense and average defense than other positions?

Good Question.  Would love it if SG could crunch the answer.

If these numbers are true, Giambi must not be back in 2009.

I’m surprised anyone thought he was really a legitimate option for next year in the first place.

I too would be interested in seeing how the numbers stack up Yankees vs. power guys.  Seems this year that they are very susceptible to guys with 94 and up consistent fastballs. Like cowboy I watch Jeter’s at bats closely.  Seems like he is late on fastball after fastball this year. Either misses or fouls off.  Not hitting fastballs squarely would have a diminishing effect on homers and the carry of the ball and that might account for why his power is going down.
In his last great year which will be remembered as 2006, I recall an at bat in an important Sept. game at the Rogers Centre vs. Burnett.  The team was in a hole as I remember about 3-0 or 2-0.  Jeter came up late in the game with a man on and went 3-0.  This time he didn’t take the automatic and got one down the middle and simply buried the fastball high into the center field stands. Later A-rod hit a two run homer and I think it represented the last time they hung a loss on AJ.

My point is that perhaps Jeter was lucky and started his swing early taking a gamble OR simply that he was quicker on the trigger then and like Giambi, Damon and others are now consistently late due to aging effects.

They really seem blown away lately against Greinke, Beckett, Halliday and Burnett.  The strategy against these guys seems to be to hope that they will slow down after 50 or 60 pitches.  Maybe just my imagination.

34,38 see baseball-reference.com team batting splits.

683 ops versus power pitchers 840 versus finesse-quite a difference.  How much is a function of most “quality” pitchers tend to be power pitchers?  To accurately judge you would have to compare power pitchers with similar era or era+ against finesse pitchers with the same stats.

I’m surprised anyone thought he was really a legitimate option for next year in the first place.

Some people were discussing him as a legit option when he went on that mini-tear earlier this summer.  At this point, I’d be glad to get a pick or two when he leaves.  Ditto for Abreu.

From a draft standpoint, it looks like the Yanks could sign Teix and CC and still gain a couple of picks in the 2009.

Has to be (OPS_against_type_x[team]/OPS_against_type_x[league])/(OPS[team]/OPS[league]]) I think.

How much is a function of most “quality” pitchers tend to be power pitchers?

here are the splits for the entire AL:

vs. “Power” - .721 OPS
vs. “Finesse” - .776 OPS

so, there is a discrepancy, but it’s not nearly as large.

Rilke I think you need to do an integration by parts on your formula

Whither Mike and the Mechanics these days?

I’m surprised anyone thought he was really a legitimate option for next year in the first place.
...
Some people were discussing him as a legit option when he went on that mini-tear earlier this summer.

I think he is still “legitimate”, but he’s probably more like Plan C or Plan D.  Plan A is probably Tex.  Plan B (I would think) would be try for someone like Dunn or Burrell; either to play first or OF and put Nady at first.  If those fall through, I could see Plan C being Giambi, or maybe Plan C is to try and trade for a decent 1B (Fielder maybe?  I haven’t looked at him close enough), and then Plan D is Giambi.  Plan E is probably Miranda.  I think I would rather have Giambi being Plan C/D than Tony Clark, Part II.

What plan is the one where Posada plays a lot of 1st Base?

do some positions have a greater difference between replacement level defense and average defense than other positions?

I haven’t really created a replacement level for fielding, but looking at the data from 2002 through 2008, here’s the range of zone rating in terms of runs saved per chance compared to average within one standard deviation

So it looks like the spread is greater at the more skilled positions, which makes sense.

Zambrano now a candidate to make upcoming start per Bats Blog

We have Carlos Zambrano?  Cool.

I don’t understand [48] without chances/position.

Fielder maybe?  I haven’t looked at him close enough

I don’t think Gamels makes Fielder expendable. I doubt the Yanks have the players to get a guy like Fielder anyway.

Giambi has played 2/3 of the teams games at first base. He’s terrible in the field, he’s 38 next year and he’s incredibly inconsistent. I don’t think of him as an acceptable answer to the question “Who will be the opening day first baseman for the Yankees in 2009?”.

“he’s incredibly inconsistent”

I don’t care if he’s putting up good integrated numbers.

I don’t care if he’s putting up good integrated numbers.

Ok…

Giambi vs Power Pitchers:
.172 AVG/.298 OBP/.306 SLG/.604 OPS/161 PA

Giambi vs Relief Pitchers:
.177 AVG/.326 OBP/.319 SLG/.645 OPS/138 PA

Just as a point of comparison:

Teixeira vs Power Pitchers:
.256 AVG/.388 OBP/.506 SLG/.894 OPS/206 PA

Teixeira vs Relief Pitchers:
.281 AVG/.415 OBP/.568 SLG/.984 OPS/171 PA

I don’t understand [48] without chances/position.

Hmm, didn’t know Luis Mendoza’s speed translated from ice skating to baserunning.

I suspect that there are a lot of players who excel against bad pitching and feast on blowouts.  It would be interesting to try to quantify “bad” pitching.  For instance, if you get 3 hits off Roy Halliday on a day when he gets lit up for 7ER, perhaps a player’s statistics from that particular day should be counted as success against “bad” pitchng even though we know how good Roy is.

‘I don’t care if he’s putting up good integrated numbers.’

“Ok…”

Do you prefer, “I don’t care as long as he’s putting good integrated numbers.”?  Because afaik there’s no reason to care about consistency.  E.g. SG did a study of variability in a fixed-mean lineup and found little effect.

If you look at sOPS+  vs power pitchers:  we are at 92, whereas we’re at 108 vs average and 116 vs finesse.  [sOPS+ sets AL average for that split at 100]
So yes, everybody hits worse vs power pitchers, but we’re well below league average against them.
Compare the hated Sox:  112/109/122
or the hated Angels:  103/103/86
[that third number explains why Ponson handled them?]
or the irritating Twinkies:  100/106/99
The first poster on this was absolutely right:  we can’t handle strikeout pitchers—a group which, obviously, overlaps with dominant pitchers..

What’s the stat uncertainty on those classes?  Might be small for the specialists.

I’m no statboy…bb-ref sez:

Power pitchers strike out or walk more than 28% of batters faced, Finesse pitchers strike out or walks less than 24% of batters faced. Stats are based on the three years before and after (when available), and the season for when the split is computed. A split in 1994 would consider years 1991-1997.

Just wondering how many of each class of pitcher we’ve faced.  I can make a dumb guess from there.

Yanks’ AB distribution
vs. Power   1697  
  vs. avg.P/F   1353  
  vs. Finesse   1794

league AB distribution
  vs. Power     21038  
  vs. avg.P/F   19458  
  vs. Finesse   27285

Hmmm, so we’ve faced power pitchers 35% of all ABs, the AL as a whole only 31%.

Ok, never mind about the stats then given that flat division.  Which is kinda annoyingly unsharp.

I’d have a hell of a hard time believing that Cano isn’t in the top 10 LVPs if you look at his deviation from projection.