If that is the Opening Day roster next year - I will personally buy all of you a pair of Legends Seats.

I’m torn.

HA! You’ve fallen for it! That’s a 26-man roster! It can’t be the Opening Day Roster. I win! I wins forever!

Also, forgot the disclaimer that this offer is not available in the lower 48 states, Hawaii or the Province of Newfoundland.

Holliday is pretty damn good.  He’s not superstar good, but he’s good.  I think it’s absolutely in the Yankees interest to be in on him.  He’s the only OF on the market worth a long term deal, though.  So if not him, then it’s Damon, Cameron, or (if you think he’s healthy) even Nady on a short-term deal.  Boras is already bullshitting about Damon.  2 years, max, and I don’t care what Scotty says about Greg Maddux.  Otherwise, give me Cameron.

DH: Matsui, Thome, Johnson, Vlad… there are options here.

Backup C: I like Cervelli but I must admit I also thought about Zaun.  Somebody might bring in Zaun as a starter, though.

I think Cashman will let Jeter and Rivera play out the year, and then negotiate. It’s the more anxiety-provoking choice, but one that gives him the most data when he has to talk numbers. I’m not sure how much it matters in Rivera’s case, since his career profile seems to resolving into that of a knuckleballer, but Jeter’s coming off an MVP-type season, and it’s reasonable to expect his bargaining power to decline over another year. If it turns out otherwise, the Yankees can always swallow hard and outbid everyone else.

Holliday is pretty damn good.  He’s not superstar good, but he’s good.

I’m not saying he’s not good. I’m saying that in the hierarchy of “good” players, he’s the good player I’d be comfortable paying between $13 million and $16 million a season.

Given that he’s far and away the cream of the crop, like Teixeira was last year, the signing team is going to be paying a premium on top of his actual value. The Yankees did that with Tex and got lucky. Going into the season, Teixeira had been a good, but not quite great, player and the Yankees got a little lucky they got MVP-level performance from him since they were paying him premium money.

3 major disagreements

1) I don’t think they need/will bring in a 4th SP.  I think a CC/AJ/Andy/Joba/Hughes/IPK/Gaudin/Mitre rotation is fine.

2) I’d kick the tires on Holliday.  If it can be done for 6/120, I do it and wave goodbye to Damon/Matsui.

3) Under no circumstances extend Jeter/Rivera now.  The odds of their 2010 being better than their 2009 is infinitessimal.  The odds of it being worse are huge.

They’re not going anywhere.  Just like last time with Posada/Rivera, the Yankees will give 1 year and $1M per more than the market and get it done.

But if Jeter demands some 4 yr/$100M monstrosity, I’d say let him go.  No one else is paying him half that, and he’ll come crawling back.

Tex had an OPS higher in 3 of the 4 seasons coming into last year. Not all of those were on Texas, and it’s not like DNYS suppressed any offense.

Also, look at Holliday’s home/road splits. He was a great hitter at home last year.

I don’t see why people are so down on Holliday?  Even with his sucky April, he was basically as good a player as Teixeira this season, and easily worth $20M.

He’s a very, very good hitter (909 OPS, 390 wOBA - both below career averages) a good defender, +7 UZR/150 career, and a plus baserunner.

If it can be done for 6/120, I do it and wave goodbye to Damon/Matsui.

To quote the Great Mr. Kornheiser - if my grandma had three wheels she’d be a tricycle. Given the current state of the market (slight overall economic recovery, moneyed teams with a greater need and the fact he’s clearly the top free agent out there) he’s going to get in excess of $20 million from someone. Besides, I’d rather save my coin and make a charge after Carl Crawford next offseason.

As for dealing with the Mariano Jeter issue now, their performance may or may not change, but its likely the economy will improve, adding to the bottom line. Also, in addition to paying for the player, you are paying for the PR of not having to do a year of hand-wringing and the marginal benefit of knowing what your costs are going forward. Two things that while intangible (as many things with this pair are) are valuable.

The Yankees did that with Tex and got lucky

Got lucky? Teixeira basically made the jump from a ~3.5 WAR player in his age 25 and 26 seasons to a 5-6 WAR player the last 2 years. Noticeable uptick in OBP and SLG. Sure, we can argue whether or not he can sustain it, but that argument happens in 4, 5 or 6 years. He basically did exactly what we expected he’d do, so I’m not sure how that classifies as luck.

tedbrogen brought this up in another thread, but Russell Branyan is a FA as well, so add another name to the DH possibility list.

I don’t really think the Yankees got particularly lucky with Tex this year.  I’ll wait for SG’s postmortem on him, but it seemed to me that he basically hit what he was projected to hit.  The worry is the backend of the deal.

Pitching:

Bring back Pettitte on a short deal, of course, if you can.  Kick the tires on Lackey.  If he’s being undervalued (highly unlikely), grabbing him would be fine.  If he’s not, no biggie.  I like the idea of rolling the dice on Harden (or other oft-broken but talented pitchers… Bedard?), trying to bring back Wang on a minor league deal. 

I too do not see the need for extensions for Jeter and Mo at this time.

Cashman has yet to extend anyone post-2005, right? This includes the 3 year deal Rivera got and the 4 year deal Posada got. I’m not sure why that would change now.

I think everyone is misunderstanding my point.

I like Holliday. A lot. However, I don’t think signing him is a good value proposition for the Yankees. We talk about how they have more resources than anyone, but those resources are not infinite.

At the end of the day, it is worth as much to Jeter and Rivera to stay Yankees as it is to the Yankees to keep them.

No one is going to pay them close to what they make now.  No other team virtually guarantee a playoff spot.

Play out 2010, let them see what the market is, and offer them a little more.  That’s how the Yankees have always dealt with FAs to be, and it’s the right way now.

[13] I agree. Holliday is a good player, but with some creativity, there are better buys out there. I said it in a previous thread, but if they are going to go ‘stop gap’, there needs to be a reason. Is there a 2011 or 2012 FA they like? Is it leverage against a trade you want to make? Are you hoping to develop internally? Maybe take a flyer on one of those non tender guys (like Connor Jackson) and see if you can bring him back to life? Can Melky go from slugging .415 to .450 and keep that raise that .340ish OBP to .350 or .360? Otherwise, we can cut and past this thread for next year.

I don’t see why people are so down on Holliday?

A lot of people have made up their minds that his hitting is a mirage created by Colorado.  Not true, but it’s sunk in at this point.  Add in the fact that the overall FA class is weak and he’s the headliner, and you get Sean’s legit concern that he’ll end up being overpaid.  The Yankees should be in on it and should sell their offer to him as a chance to play with a great team on the big stage.  If somebody goes nuts on years/dollars and he takes it, fine by me.

I’d rather save my coin and make a charge after Carl Crawford next offseason

I really don’t get why people believe Crawford is all that and a bag of chips.  He did have a very good year with the bat this year, but it’s the first time I’ve ever been impressed with his bat.  Typically, he just doesn’t get on base enough.  He’s a good defender and baserunner, yes.  But he’s a guy I worry will be dramatically overpaid, when it’s all said and done.  The jump in OBP this year was pretty dramatic.  Let’s see what he does in 2010.

If you’re going with a full-time DH, just get Matsui. His demands won’t be huge, he’s a lefty, and he’s succeeded here.

So who is going much more than 6/120 on Holliday?

Boston seems set on Bay on a cheaper, shorter deal.  The Mets can’t afford it and fix their 8 other gaping holes.

St Louis, maybe, but they’ve got to pay Albert soon, and he’s going to cost them $25-30M p.a.

I just don’t see it.

[17]  Which is why for DH, Matsui is probably my first choice.  He should be fairly easy to sign to a 1-year deal.

I fear the whole “rotating” DH thing.  I think it’s the path to WOE.

I don’t see the Crawford love either.  It’s also very possible Tampa extends him, talks are apparently ongoing.

Now Halladay is a different story.  He’s awesome.  He’s a very good reason not to sign another SP (beyond Pettitte) this season, and certainly to avoid Lackey.

I fear the whole “rotating” DH thing.  I think it’s the path to WOE.

See, I’m pretty much banking on it.

You’ve got, if they resign Damon, a 36-year-old left fielder, a 36-year-old shortstop, a 34-year-old third baseman with a potentially troublesome hip and a 38-year-old catcher. If you’re expecting all those guys to repeat their age-defying seasons next year, again, I will buy you all Legends Seats (same restrictions apply).

So how’d a championship-caliber team wind up starting two sub-replacement level guys in the outfield,

Melky and Gardner are ‘sub-replacement level’ only in a universe where defense and baserunning don’t matter.  Since they do, this statement is completely wrong.

Since they do, this statement is completely wrong.

I refer you to the comment about the author being an ill-informed yahoo.

Oh, and scratch Tim Hudson off your list of potential starters.  He re-signed with Atlanta for three years and $27M.

Sean,

1) Matsui didn’t DH every game this year.  The team found time off at DH for the other guys.  Any “full time” DH will probably need days off too, which allows you to work in the occasional ARod, Jeter or (if he’s there) Damon DH day.

2) Posada needs full days off, IMO.  DHing him should be rare.  As this means starts for Cervelli, it’s all the more important that the rest of the lineup be as potent as possible.

3) The argument about old guys just boosts the argument for signing Holliday.

If Cashman signs a LF for, say 4 years, you are forcing Jeter to be a SS or DH for the entire term of that contract, assuming he’s kept throughout that period, which I think is a pretty safe assumption. Is that something that Cashman wants to lock into? I’d rather have LF open in 2011 if possible, but by 2012, certainly.

[25] Re: point #1, I believe the point to be made here is that you have a guy whose regular position in the lineup is at DH. If you plan on going with the rotating DH (Damon, Jeter, Rodriguez, etc) what that plan then equates to is someone like Ramiro Pena getting 450-550 PA’s, which is not a good plan. If they had a guy like Nady on the roster (if he was healthy), then that would be a little less difficult to swallow, but since they don’t (as of now), it’s a recipe for 3 automatic outs for 85% of the innings.

Yankees in no rush to deal with Jeter, Girardi

The Yankees have more than enough issues with their actual free agents – notably Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui and Andy Pettitte – that the early read this offseason is that they are going to table any kind of negotiations to extend contracts with Joe Girardi and Derek Jeter, probably to next offseason, The Post has learned.

[...]

In the case of Girardi, the Yankees would just be following the precedent they had with Joe Torre, whose contracts generally expired before negotiations for new deals began.

As for Jeter, the Yanks obviously know they want him to spend his entire career with the organization. They also know he just had his best season since 2006 and will play next year at age 36. So they probably would like to see Jeter repeat that performance before paying him based on such a strong 2009.

There are quite a few interesting names on that non-tender list: John Buck, Conor Jackson, Andy Marte, Noah Lowry, Navarro, Kelly Shoppach, Marcus Thames, and Delmon Young. Seems like the list was made pretty haphazardly, though.

If Cashman signs a LF for, say 4 years, you are forcing Jeter to be a SS or DH for the entire term of that contract

Yes.  IMHO, Derek Jeter is not a LFer.  I think it’s clear that he’s going to play SS until he can’t, and then he’s done.  I could be wrong, but that’s how I see it.  Holding open LF for decline-phase Jeter makes no sense to me.

Yes.  IMHO, Derek Jeter is not a LFer.  I think it’s clear that he’s going to play SS until he can’t, and then he’s done.

Jeter has said repeatedly that he wants to play into his 40s; it won’t be at SS. He really doesn’t SLG enough to be a full-time DH. Unless A-Rod is moved off 3B (which I doubt), the corner OF is the only place for him.

[30]“Yes.  IMHO, Derek Jeter is not a LFer.  I think it’s clear that he’s going to play SS until he can’t, and then he’s done.  I could be wrong, but that’s how I see it.  Holding open LF for decline-phase Jeter makes no sense to me. “

Concur 100%

[30, 32] Then you’ve put yourself into a situation where, if you don’t want Jeter as your starting SS in year 20XX (which is a situation you are going to be up against in 11-12 months), the contract negotiations are going to get extremely ugly.

6/120 for Holliday seems awful steep given his wide variations in offensive performance based on stadium and comfort level.  He’s a pull righty hitter, which is tough in YS is you’re not A-Rod, who plays above-average defense for a corner-outfielder but is getting older.

I’d be comfortable paying 6/90 or 5/80 but thats really about it.
I think the need for a reliable starter is equally great and one can be had on a much shorter deal than Holliday.

Exactly, it’s not about what’s optimal, it’s about what’s practical.

“Jeter has said repeatedly that he wants to play into his 40s; it won’t be at SS. He really doesn’t SLG enough to be a full-time DH. Unless A-Rod is moved off 3B (which I doubt), the corner OF is the only place for him. “

If Jeter wants to play into his 40’s it won’t be as a Yankee.

The Yankees will not carry a 100 OPS+ bat in LF that expects to be paid $20M out of nostalgia.

You can justify an overpay for a 2-year extension, but that’s about it, IMHO.  After that I’d go year-to-year and if Jeter wants to ply his trade for the Nationals to get a few extra year/bucks you let him.

If the Yankees could survive Ruth retiring as a Brave and Yogi as a Met, they can let Jeter go too.

[33] So you offer Jeter a 2-year deal after 2010 at a modest overpay, maybe 2/35.

Do you think someone is going to offer him more than that as a 37-year old SS?
After that you go year-to-year.

I don’t see why it gets ugly when you’re paying him far more than market price.

[37] It gets ugly if he wants more than 2 years. Offering him a 2 year deal, even a little high of AAV, and having him accept it are two different things. My point is that the combination of signing a long term LF (I’ll give Jeter the benefit of the doubt and say he can be viable at SS on a championship caliber team for the next 3 years) and Jeter for more than a couple of years means the probably is very nearly over constrained - he’ll be your SS or your DH. If he falls of a cliff as a SS and LF is open, at least it can potentially be on the table.

mean the problem

[36, 37] If the decision were mine to make, I would treat Jeter like any other player, but I don’t think the Yankees are going to do that based, in part, on the four year contract that they gave Posada, which was a decision that was made above Cashman, and against his wishes. It was reported at the time that the Steinbrenners agreed to a fourth year based on their appreciation for previous services rendered.

Obviously, Jeter’s standing in the eyes of the <strike>sometimes irrational</strike> fanbase far exceeds the position held by Posada.

So maybe I’m wrong (I hope I am), but I think the Steinbrenners will give Jeter at least a four year extension, and as a result, the Yankees will need to maintain some positional flexibility in order to accommodate the effects of the aging process on the Captain.

SG- Any chance you could show us how Jeter’s numbers would have looked as a LF and DH in 09?

[38] It only gets ugly if someone offers him more than 2 years at a similar AAV.  I just don’t see that happening.

Jeter is too smart to start a shit-storm if he has no other reasonable alternatives.

We saw this with Posada and Mo.  The Yankees beat the market by a reasonable amount, 1 more year, ~$2-3M more AAV.  They did not blow the market away.

A 4 yr, $18M p.a. deal for Jeter would be absolutely blowing the market away.  Probably twice the years, and 50% more AAV than he could get elsewhere.

[40] Even if they give him the 4 years, which I doubt, I wouldn’t let it affect my plans to field the best team. Treat it as a sunk cost, part of the marketing budget.

You keep running him out at SS until he collapses, you let him embarass himself for a month or two, and you bench him.

Under no circumstances extend Jeter/Rivera now.  The odds of their 2010 being better than their 2009 is infinitessimal.  The odds of it being worse are huge.

You should take that back. Definitely in terms of Rivera. You know who Rivera is, right? He’s Mo.

I am optimistic and confident about Jeter too.

I can see Jeter eventually moving over to LF, if that’s the designated hide-your-poor-defense-old-guy position. And I can see him as DH. Assuming 2+ years of serviceable SS, having a .360+ OBP LF/DH leading off for 1-2 years is a luxury the Yankees can afford.

We keep hearing how Holliday is going to get a break the bank type of contract. St. Louis clearly wants him but it seems that they don’t have the dollars to go crazy.  Some team might materialize, but I just don’t see where the market demand for him is going to come from at dollars that exceed $100M?

Boston is possible if Theo is sour on Bay’s contract and/ or defense.  Holliday’s swing would likely play well at Fenway.  But if the Sox sign Bay Holliday’s market collapses considerably.

The Angels are possible, but they have a lot of outfielders, as usual.  Mets - unlikely.  Dodgers - unlikely with Divorce McCourt.  SF is reportedly keeping their payroll down this season. 

White Sox?  Orioles? 

I just don’t see where a ton of demand is coming from for his services.

I find the whole Jeter contract situation fascinating. If he has another above average year defensively, I don’t see why you don’t give him another 3 years at 18-20M.

The man continues to defy age and lack of defensive ability. Chances are he will be number 30 on the all time hit list (passing barry bonds) by the end of next season. He has a real chance at 4000.

I don’t know a way to quantify it, but the Yankees definitely bring in more revenues with Jeter than without and that marketability factor will undoubtedly be considered. Also, I don’t think the man gets enough credit. Somehow his silence is being interpreted as greed.

[46]“I don’t know a way to quantify it, but the Yankees definitely bring in more revenues with Jeter than without and that marketability factor will undoubtedly be considered.”

I don’t believe that at all.  If the Yankees win, they’ll sell the tickets and get the ratings.  If they don’t, they won’t.

Ruth, Gehrig, DiMaggio, Berra, Jackson, Mattingly none of those departures hurt the team’s popularity.

With Mantle it is very hard to tell b/c the team sucked anyayw.

You keep running him out at SS until he collapses, you let him embarass himself for a month or two, and you bench him.

I once thought that Jeter’s below defense from 2005-07 would convince him (and the Yankees) to move to CF so that A-Rod could play SS.

The player who succeeds him at SS will need a significant amount of intestinal fortitude.

[42] You don’t seem to be understanding my point.

Yes, the Yankees will have no problem signing Jeter. They have the most money to offer, he’s Derek freakin’ Jeter.. he’s not going anywhere but the Yankees.

But the comparison to Rivera and Posada isn’t a good one. River hasn’t shown any signs of breaking down. Posada’s 4 year deal was wholly seen as a mistake, and we’ve already experienced the downside in 2008.

All I’m trying to say is that if you sign Jeter for 4 years (which I agree,  you likely will) *AND* you sign a LF (which you have to make a decision on right now) who covers that same time period, you are stuck with Jeter as your SS or your DH. It’s the 2009-2010 offseason, and we’re already talking about a slew needing time at DH. It’s just another point of consideration for not considering anyone like Holliday or Bay.

Boston is possible if Theo is sour on Bay’s contract and/ or defense.  Holliday’s swing would likely play well at Fenway.  But if the Sox sign Bay Holliday’s market collapses considerably.

I feel like Boston is where he will end up.  He makes up for missing Teixeira and is clearly better than Bay.

The man continues to defy age and lack of defensive ability.

Does he? There a ton of balls hit to the SS. If you put yourself in a situation where he has no position to move to, you have to either bench him (that should go over well) or keep running him out there and take the hit in performance. Neither is a prudent strategy, IMO.

Divorce McCourt. That’s pretty good.

Can we please stop bringing up Holliday’s age as a negative? Were you saying the same things when Tex, who is the same age, got an 8-year deal?

[52] Teixeira was signed going into his age 29 season. Holliday will be signed going into his age 30 season. That’s typically 1 more year of peak production. I don’t think it’s insignificant.

It’s just another point of consideration for not considering anyone like Holliday or Bay.

I don’t think it’s a big deal, if the Yankees get Holliday, the DH spot will still be free to rotate guys. Too much uncertainty with trades and injuries to, if the Yankees really wanted Holliday, for what will happen to Jeter to be a big consideration.

Not that it shouldn’t be part of the equation, and not that I particularly want Holliday, I don’t think he’s worth the money long term.

[51] What would you call this season? I think defiance of age and defensive ability is accurate.

Good stuff with the original post, by the way.

The main thing about Holliday is that Red Sox signing him is going to be a pretty big deal for giving that team the extra push. He seems like the type that could do serious damage in Boston. 

I really hope a non Red Sox team gets him.

[55] I’m not sure what you mean by ‘defiance of defensive ability.’ He had a pretty damn good defensive ability in 2009. But should we ignore any/all of the previous years?

Would it shock you if he had a bad defensive year in 2010? Would it be implausible to think that the better pitching in 2009 (and 2008) contributed more to his improvement measured by UZR/150 than his actual skill?

We’re talking about prudent roster construction, aren’t we? My point simply remains that forcing yourself in a situation where Jeter’s inevitabe contract extension has him playing SS through it’s entire term is not the best strategy, and that it somewhat coincides with putting the best FA OFer in LF for 2010.

yeah, I would love it if they go bargain hunting, or overpay for Bay.

Yes but the issue was his decline phase. We’re going to be getting more of Tex’s decline than Holliday on a 6-year deal. I don’t regret the Tex contract.

[22]  Ooh, come watch!  The gods hurl thunderbolts at one another!

Any chance you could show us how Jeter’s numbers would have looked as a LF and DH in 09?

Assuming he’d be average in LF…

As a SS: 55 BRAR + 2 RSAA = 5.7 WAR
As a LF: 46 BRAR + 0 RSAA = 4.6 WAR
As a DH: 31 BRAR = 3.1 WAR

Right now I’d have 2010 Jeter projected at around -3 defensively at SS.  So if we assume he can be average in LF, it would take about five years of a typical decline (-1.5 to 2 runs per season) to make moving him to LF a net gain, assuming his offense is a constant value of n.

2010: SS WAR = n - 3, LF WAR =  n - 9(positional adjustment)
2011: SS WAR = n - 4.5, LF WAR = n - 9
2012: SS WAR = n - 6, LF WAR = n - 9
2013: SS WAR = n - 7.5, LF WAR = n - 9
2014: SS WAR = n - 9, LF WAR = n - 9

Of course, at his age, falling off a cliff is a big risk.  Maybe you can say that we should expect him to decline defensively at a faster rate than that, and maybe you can say that he’d benefit offensively from moving to a less taxing defensive position.  But you could also say that we don’t know if him being an average LF is a safe assumption.

They’ll probably sign Jeter for longer than is smart, and for more than he’s worth, but given his marketability to the casual fan, I’m not so sure that we should villify it in terms of what it ends up being worth in marginal wins.  This is a team that pissed away $40 million on Carl Pavano and $21 million on Jaret Wright in one offseason.  Should we really get mad if they reward someone who’s been one of the best players in franchise history?

If his play declines to the point that he’s actively hurting the team, he will be phased out.  It happened to Mattingly, and he was probably just as important to the franchise in his day as Jeter is now.

We’re heading into uncharted territory with Jeter.  There have only been 58 seasons where a player got at least 400 PAs and played 70% of the time at SS at age 36 or older, by 28 different players.  Since 1946, there are only 30 such seasons, by 13 different players.  Odds are against him being an above average player at age 40, but then again, odds were against him doing what he did this season too at age 35.

Thanks.

We’re heading into uncharted territory with Jeter.

I guess that’s the part I’m worried about. Signed to an expensive contract and expecting play SS combined with the doomsday scenario of falling off a cliff would be disastrous at a position like SS.

If there is worries about Jeter, getting a plus LF to compensate for a more earthbound SS is probably a bigger consideration than leaving LF for Jeter.

easily worth $20M

In 2010?  Sure.  But he’s going to have to be something like a 4 WAR player when he’s 35 to be worth 6/$120M, and I’m not particularly sanguine about that.

If you plan on going with the rotating DH (Damon, Jeter, Rodriguez, etc) what that plan then equates to is someone like Ramiro Pena getting 450-550 PA’s, which is not a good plan.

Really?  Jeter and Rodriguez DHing once a week each means 200 PA for Pena at most.  Damon DHing means Cabrera and Gardner in the lineup at the same time, and we’re supposed to be bullish on them these days, right?  Who is “etc”?  Posada?  He can only catch as much as his aging body will let him, so the backup catcher is in the lineup for the rest of the games anyway, whether Jorge is on the bench or in the DH slot.

We’re heading into uncharted territory with Jeter.  There have only been 58 seasons where a player got at least 400 PAs and played 70% of the time at SS at age 36 or older, by 28 different players. Since 1946, there are only 30 such seasons, by 13 different players.  Odds are against him being an above average player at age 40, but then again, odds were against him doing what he did this season too at age 35.

Never underestimate Hall of Fame talent.  I don’t remember where I heard that first, but it pretty much says it all for me when it comes to Jeter (and Rivera of course).

Two other things to consider:

1) Derek Jeter hasn’t played LF, like ever.
2) This is the player who had no intention of moving off SS for ARod.  I love him, but his pride could power a small country.
3) Who is the SS replacement.  This conversation would be a lot more realistic if there was somebody either coming up through the minors or going to be available on the FA market.  Somebody who, if plugged in at SS with Jeter to LF, is likely to be a net gain over declining Jeter at SS + average LFer (or above-average if we’re talking Holliday). 

It only makes sense to move Jeter if the move actually makes the team better.  It’s entirely possible (likely, IMO) that the only move for Jeter will be to the bench, when the time comes.

I remember someone here suggesting JJ Hardy as Jeter’s replacement. So much for that.

Signed to an expensive contract and expecting play SS combined with the doomsday scenario of falling off a cliff would be disastrous at a position like SS.

People seem to project an awful lot of selfishness and general bad attitude onto Jeter with little basis.  He strikes me as a very proud and image-conscious guy.  I’m pretty confident that if he really falls off a cliff at some point, he’ll take himself out of the lineup rather than embarrass himself for an extended period of time.

Note the bolded “really.”  I’m talking about hitting .220 and regularly botching routine plays in the field.

I’m sensing that

It only makes sense to move Jeter if the move actually makes the team better.  It’s entirely possible (likely, IMO) that the only move for Jeter will be to the bench, when the time comes.

contradicts

Somebody who, if plugged in at SS with Jeter to LF, is likely to be a net gain over declining Jeter at SS + average LFer (or above-average if we’re talking Holliday).

Cause I can’t imagine a scenario, even with a declining Jeter, for the first 2 years of the new deal anyway, who would be better than Jeter at SS, and probably LF (taking into account also decent baserunning, calm eyes, and fist pumps) for that matter.

Oops, that was three things.  Doh.

I agree with MC.  That was my “pride” point.  He won’t want to move, and when it becomes obvious he’s no longer an asset, he’ll walk away.  IMO.

Really?

I believe I said ‘someone like Ramiro Pena.’ Conservation of PA’s. If you don’t have a full time DH, you need 450-550 PA’s. They will be given to guys filling in for your rotating DH’s. Damon, Jeter, Rodriguez, etc.  So that ‘someone like Ramiro Pena’ is Ramiro Pena himself, Gardner, and Cervelli. That’s not a good plan for 450-550 PA’s.

People seem to project an awful lot of selfishness and general bad attitude onto Jeter with little basis.

I appreciate Jeter’s professionalism, but he was pretty dismissive of questions centered around defensive metrics indicating that he was on the glideslope to not being able to play SS. Mix that in with a few frustrating seasons of Yankees baseball, and I think that’s where it comes from.

I’m pretty confident that if he really falls off a cliff at some point, he’ll take himself out of the lineup rather than embarrass himself for an extended period of time.

While you may be right, all that really does is mitigate the one PR aspect of it. I’m sure that if it got to that point, he wouldn’t be playing. But the issue is that you’d be paying a lot for a guy who has no place in the starting 9 to contribute. I’m merely (again) advocating for a plan B to be in place. Penciling Jeter in as the starting LF in 2011 is certainly not plan A, but having it open for at least 2012 is a smart idea, IMO.

he’ll walk away.

From $15M-$18M per year? Not likely.

2) This is the player who had no intention of moving off SS for ARod.  I love him, but his pride could power a small country.

Asking him to move off of SS for an incoming player via trade after being the starting SS on the incumbent pennant winning and easily most dominant team in the AL for the previous 8 years and expecting him to move off of SS in his age 40 season aren’t 1 for 1 comparisons, are they?

This conversation would be a lot more realistic if there was somebody either coming up through the minors or going to be available on the FA market.

I guess what I’m advocating is setting the team up for an extended championship run.  If Jeter defies age and plays championship level SS into his early 40s, then I will of course be jumping up and down on my couch like the rest of you. But it’s prudent to plan for that to not happen. That means (1) leaving a position open for him to move to and (2) trying to develop someone internally to take over for him while (3) keeping your eye on the free agent market in case (2) (which is admittedly way easier said than done) doesn’t work out. If Jeter makes us all eat crow, then hey, that works, too.

If you don’t have a full time DH, you need 450-550 PA’s.

You seem to be thinking that there’s no middle ground between “full time DH” and “regular DH.”  You also seem to think that Matsui’s 2009 was “full time.”  A strict LH platoon DH would allow plenty of games where Jeter, Posada and Rodriguez could get half a day off.  And like I said, the backup catcher is going to be in the lineup 50 or 60 times anyway, so the question is whether Posada should be on the bench for all of those games, or only half of them.

From $15M-$18M per year? Not likely.

He’ll walk away from embarrassing himself and take a seat on the bench.  He’ll keep collecting the checks, but like someone said way early in the thread, the contract is a sunk cost.  He’ll play part time, avoiding the tougher pitchers.

Wow, I’m still just soaking up the fact that all these over-the-hill guys just reclaimed the crown. I would suggest that we as fans should sit back a while and appreciate the 2009 season. I mean a lot of things fell into place and it may be some time before the team wins that way again. I really doubted that Jeter,Mo, Po and Andy would get the fifth ring and now its happened.  So what if the Yanks over compensate these guys a bit going forward. They have delivered for us five times!  Can you imagine how many years most teams would sacrifice to win one time?  Think Royals, Twins, Astros, Padres, Mariners and other teams.  My point is that should Cashman and company make a mistake from this point forward, so-what? I can live with a bit of a fall back for a few years now as I’m still extremely grateful for 2009. Though I wasn’t really down on them, Cashman and Girardi deserve a lot more credit than I was willing to give them last April. What really is neat is that I can wear my Yankees gear with a lot of extra pride -all winter long!

My preferences going forward are as follows:
1. Damon two years max and I would prefer Holliday for the right terms but Damon as a fallback. ( I don’t think Crawford will be available to Yanks BTW in 2010/11) He will be traded mid year to a team that will sign him outside the east or stay with Rays.
2. Sign Pettitte for one year and team option
3. Pursue Lackey for the right terms. Lackey is more important than Holliday if money is an issue.
Let Jeter play 2010 before offer- I think he’ll likely fall off some next year but he’s not going to play elsewhere IMO.
4.  Monitor Matsui- every day DH seemed to work well with him, but if they go with Holliday it might be worthwhile to keep some LH power. one year max

I guess what I’m advocating is setting the team up for an extended championship run.  ...  That means (1) leaving a position open for him to move to…

I can’t imagine supporting the idea of setting yourself up to contend for a WS title when Jeter is 40+ and not likely to be a major contributor if it means lessening your chances to win a few more rings while he is 36-38 and more likely to still be good.  And I think it almost necessarily does.

[77] What would you call ‘full time’ for a DH? Matsui got 526 PA’s. The Yankees played 18 games in the NL.

So what if the Yanks over compensate these guys a bit going forward. They have delivered for us five times!

Exactly.  Plus, the Yankees can afford it.

[79] I’m integrating the chances of contending for a WS title over the entire tenure and trying to maximize it.

Penciling Jeter in as the starting LF in 2011 is certainly not plan A, but having it open for at least 2012 is a smart idea, IMO.

So it’s:

1) 2 years of Jeter at SS + 2 years of average SS
2) 2 years of average LF + 2 years of Jeter at LF
3) 4 years of average DH

vs

a) 2 years of Jeter at SS + 2 years of average SS
b) 4 years of plus LF / Holliday
c) 2 years of average DH + 2 years of Jeter at DH

Something like that? I just don’t see projecting or reserving 2 years out is feasible. Especially with the upcoming 2 years, shoring up with a + LF or any other position has more meaningful impact. 

It’s all interesting however.

[77, 80] Sorry, 18 games against the NL, 9 of which were in NL parks. Still, 526 PA’s with that schedule is full time to me.

I think MC at [79] and I at [83] are on the same side. But even reading what I wrote, I’m not sure if it is clear.

Nine of those interleague games were at home, with AL rules.  Matsui started 116 games at DH.  The Yankees played 153 DH games.

My point is that you can have both a regular DH and a rotation for some of your regulars to get the leftover DH at-bats.  You do not need to completely forgo a player like Matsui in order to give three or four of your older regulars some DH time.  And if we’re talking about Matsui specifically, the likelihood is that he will play even less going forward, being 36 and all.

I’m integrating the chances of contending for a WS title over the entire tenure and trying to maximize it.

Or at least you think you are.

[83] I guess that’s the jist of it, but there’s a few things missing:

1) Obviously, if Jeter defies logic for 3, 4 or even 5 years, that’s the best scenario. As SG showed, with his bat, his ability to play even passable SS makes him uber valuable.

2) You’re assuming a certain drop off from the LF who will require a big contract now (Holliday) to some of the 2nd tier options out there. The size of that delta is important, and if it’s not that big, doesn’t it make more sense to take the 2nd tier option and at least leave yourself the flexibility in those latter years? Nothing prevents you from going to get another LFer in 2 years or so if Jeter is still going strong.

Or let me put it this way:

My position is that the best way for a team in the Yankees present situation to maximize the chances of winning another WS over the next N years is to do everything possible to win in any given year, starting with 2010.  Setting yourself up for three or four years from now may be a necessary strategy for a lot of teams, but it should be something that the Yankees need to consider only very rarely, since they are almost uniquely capable of dealing with sunk costs.

IOW, you play them one at a time.

[86] I’m not sure what we’re even arguing about. I’m advocating *for* having someone pegged as ‘full time’ or ‘mostly full time’ (or whatever you want to call it) DH. It prevents lesser guys from getting into the line up out of necessity - instead, they get in when guys need a break.

[89] I completely agree

You’re assuming a certain drop off from the LF who will require a big contract now (Holliday) to some of the 2nd tier options out there. The size of that delta is important, and if it’s not that big, doesn’t it make more sense to take the 2nd tier option and at least leave yourself the flexibility in those latter years?

An you, in turn, are assuming a big drop-off in cost between the first and second tier options.  The size of that delta is important too.  Sign a second tier option if he’s a better value.  Don’t sign a second tier option just for the flexibility.

I’m not sure what we’re even arguing about.

Just that you’re overstating the downside of rotating a few position players through the DH slot by assuming that it means those guys will get two or three times as many DH PA as they probably would.  On the flip side, it’s also possible to overstate the “need” to keep the DH slot “open” for position players who will need more rest in the future.

You’re assuming a certain drop off from the LF who will require a big contract now (Holliday) to some of the 2nd tier options out there. The size of that delta is important, and if it’s not that big, doesn’t it make more sense to take the 2nd tier option and at least leave yourself the flexibility in those latter years? Nothing prevents you from going to get another LFer in 2 years or so if Jeter is still going strong.

You are right, but that said, it’s the same with my average DH and average SS propositions. Still, I peg Holliday as a plus mainly due to projection, entering prime years, and past. The other LF FA options seem like there are on the wrong side of the prime years.

Again, I’m not necessarily advocating for Holliday. The Yankees can stay on top with an average LF, and using their money in other ways.

[92] My assumption is that the second tier option still puts you in a situation where you have a high probability of winning the WS. Using actual players as examples, Cameron is a good value and gives you a good chance at the WS, but he doesn’t increase your chances like Holliday does. Is the dropoff in the chance worth it, when you consider that with Cameron, you’re rid of him in a maximum of 2 years, he costs a lot less each year and in total value, and you don’t surrender a draft pick?

I understand your point about going for the jugular - if this team can lock up another WS with Holliday in LF and is comfortable with the risk associated with his terms, that’s valid. It just comes down to a difference of opinion - I’d rather see them have the best chance to be in the mix for 4 to 5 years. Of course, signing Holliday and the BS we’ll have to read about may be influencing me… I’m not sure.

[78] Joeln, I am in your camp on still soaking it in. As long as Cashman doesn’t do anything monumentally stupid in the post-season (like giving Jason Bay a 5 year deal or something), I will continue to snooze.

I would like to see both Hughes and Chamberlain in the rotation next year, and see them given a pretty long leash. After all, there should be some goodwill for the GM or the manager from a long-awaited World Series win, right?

I’m not sure the MSM will survive if the Yankees don’t blow away the market and steal the top FA available.

Then again, I really wish that was true, best reason to not sign Holliday.

[94, 95]  Yeah, it all depends on what you do with the rest of the money.  Of course, it also depends on whether the guys you sign play up to expectations, whether they’re first, second, or other tier.

BTW, the M’s just re-signed Griffey to fill their knee-less DH slot I assume this takes them out of the running for Matsui, although I hate to find myself agreeing with Jon Heyman on anything.

M’s just re-signed Griffey to fill their knee-less DH slot

Ouch.  Below average hitter in the DH slot?  Did they learn nothing the last few years?

[99] If you’re the M’s, do you care more about performance or ticket sales? Serious question.