Nothing beats pie charts on an off day!

SG, I would offer you free babysitting if I lived in the area.  Even though you may not have babies, and I wouldn’t know what to do with ‘em.

I am going to the game on the 26th. That would be a good day to clinch. What day are they most likely to clinch home field?

IIRC, the 1998 Yankees clinched against Boston on September 9.

What day are they most likely to clinch home field?

Haven’t set up the spreadsheet to look for that, although I guess if you added 3-4 days to the dates for clinching the division you’d get a reasonably close approximation.

Again, this is only IF the Yankees somehow manage to win the AL East against a clearly better Red Sox team.

RLYW - Come for the pie charts, stay for the snark!

If the Yankees go 10-11 from here on out, Boston would have to go 20-3 to tie them.

What are the odds of that?

What are the odds of that?  

Almost all estimates I’ve seen put it at less than 0.1%

Sorry.  I was looking at the playoff odds.  The odds for someone else winning the division are closer to 0.5%.

So, 104 wins seems like the modal outcome. I approve of this piece of statistic.

So, where is RLYW in terms of the rankings that led SG to make pie charts with great frequency? I thought at the time, RLYW was like, in the bottom 3 or something.

I am sure all the grutty Red Sox blogs were somehow better.

I know it’s a running joke here, but i really DO love pie charts.  I love seeing numbers expressed visually, and for a lot of stats, pie charts are the best.

I would proudly wear a RLYW “pie chart freak” shirt.

The thing that always bothered me about projecting win totals is that once the Yankees clinch the division (or maybe even the wild card), the playing time shifts a little bit. I’m not sure if it’s considered in win projections (the projections presented here or elsewhere), but it’s somewhat curious to think about, say, a team that wins 97 games, but clinched the division after winnings its 91st or 92nd game.

Fair point, but they’ve been playing a lot of house money lineups lately and winning anyway.  They started Mitre, Gaudin, and an innings limited Chamberlain in three out of a recent four game stretch and won two of those three.  They gave their best two relievers the night off in a close game yesterday and won anyway.  So “little” shifts in playing time just might not matter that much, although I suppose that playing the entire SWB roster probably would.

And now that I think of it, I’m sure that SG can shift the playing time in his simulator and tell us exactly how much difference it should be expected to make.

So “little” shifts in playing time just might not matter that much, although I suppose that playing the entire SWB roster probably would.

Right, and that’s what I think we’ll see for after they clinch the division. Something like..

RF Hinske
CF Gardner
LF Cabrera
1B Duncan
2B Pena/Hairston
SS Pena/Hairston
3B Pena/Hairston
C Molina/Cervelli
DH ?

.. is the line up you could see starting some games, but probably finishing a lot of games. Would that team prioject to go even a game or 2 under .500 over the course of 20 games? Probably not.

I don’t think it will be that drastic.  People are going to get rest but not two weeks off or anything.  I’d expect to see 2-3 starters out every night.

I guess I don’t think we’ll see such a big shift in the playing time once they clinch.  I’d expect to see that lineup start the day after they clinch HFA, but I also expect that the regulars will keep playing quite a bit so as to stay sharp.  It probably won’t quite turn into spring training.  And of course, Jorge will come off the bench to pinch-hit the odd game-winning three-run homer here and there.

I think Girardi showed last night that he is all about stepping on throats. He did not have to pinch hit Posada. He coulda figured, we won 3 already, guys need to rest, it’s not the end of the world if we lose. He went for the jugular and I expect him to keep doing that until they clinch home field. My guess is that they win 102.

[2] With all due respect Ivy, if I’m turning to anyone in the RLYW community to watch the kiddies…definitely gonna be Thurm.

I like the idea of clinching in the OC—good for morale.

[14] I don’t think you’ll see scrubbini lineups for the Boston series.  Girardi will care about the integrity of the WC race.

I hate the O’s

I pity the O’s.  And their fan.

Thanks SG!  If I added correctly, there is a better than 70% chance that they will have clinced the division by the time Boston leaves town.  Very good!  Also, there’s about a 37% chance Yanks win 105 (or more) games, so I’m sticking to that.

Re: Yanks playing lesser lineups.  That works both ways too.  As other teams fall out of (or clinch) divisions, wild-cards, home-field, etc., they’ll do the same as the Yankees.  So KC is going to play their scrubs - scrubs relative to their starters - and I’m pretty sure SWB Yankees could beat the KC *starters* 2 of 3 times, so… 

Also, Yankees have several players (who may be) reaching for some individual goals.  Jeter may be trying to lead the league in hits (depending on what Ichiro does) and build an MVP case.  CC may be trying to win 20 games/Cy Young award.  Teix trying to be first switch-hitter to hit 40 for Yanks since Mantle, etc.  Though Girardi won’t play these guys every day, I think he’ll happily give them a shot at reaching those goals.

Girardi will care about the integrity of the WC race.

So you’re saying there will be a lot of bunting?

So KC is going to play their scrubs - scrubs relative to their starters

Tree falls…forrest..no one hears… something.

“scrubs relative”

‘Tree falls’

Shrub falls

To continue the MVP discussion, Mauer is 0-4 today.

With the Red Sox and Rangers also having today off, the magic numbers for the playoffs and division can’t go down.  This is sad.  Go Mariners, I guess.

It’s over in Toronto, and that bum Mauer is down to .363/.429/.596!

I am a Yankee Fan, but I would be pissed if Mauer wouldn’t be the MVP. PISSED .

I am a Yankee Fan, but I would be pissed if Mauer wouldn’t be the MVP. PISSED .

Maybe if the season ended today, but there is still time for Jeter to deserve it. I, and I think most here, ain’t asking the voters for a pity or bias win.

[29] Sorry, don’t see it. Derek Jeter, while having a great season, is not on his way to one of the best seasons by a shortsop ever. Joe Mauer is.

Sorry, don’t see it. Derek Jeter, while having a great season, is not on his way to one of the best seasons by a shortsop ever. Joe Mauer is.

No he isn’t.  He’s not going to touch Piazza’s 1997, where he was better on a rate basis and played all 139 games as a C.

“Derek Jeter, while having a great season, is not on his way to one of the best seasons by a shortsop ever. Joe Mauer is.”

Mauer plays short too? </jerk>.

“He’s not going to touch Piazza’s 1997”

Is the rate part true scaled to league?  What about the difference in defense?

I think the games played, DH games played, and if (using as a proxy) a narrowing of the AVG through the remaining 15 games could significantly make up for the disparity.

But Jeter has to step it up otherwise Mauer not winning the MVP would be pretty bad.

Deservin’ aside, I don’t have much of a feel for what the guys who actually get to vote are thinking this year.  Seems like there’s a relative dearth of press on the post-season awards this year.  I mean, I haven’t seen a single Jayson Stark piece about Shannon Stewart yet.

This biased Yankees fan wants Jeter to win the award whether or not he deserves it. He is owed two MVPs that he was previously robbed of, and one of them was robbed by Mauer’s teammate. So, if Jeter doesn’t close the statistical gap but steals the award from Mauer, I won’t be upset at all.

I don’t feel concerned about the feelings of players on the Twins or the justness of votes by the BBWAA.

If Mauer went 0-for-the-rest-of-the-season, he’d end up somewhere around .320/.390/.530.

[35] - Agreed.

If Mauer went 0-for-the-rest-of-the-season, he’d end up somewhere around .320/.390/.530.

Let’s go Jeter!

“one of them was robbed by Mauer’s teammate”

Wasn’t Mauer better than Jeter in 06?

Here is the definitive word on the 2009 AL MVP race:

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/9/7/1020170/the-al-mvp-is

If Mauer loses the MVP to Jeter, he’ll be so super pissed that come 2011 he’ll conduct talks with no other team but Boston.

So, Mauer for MVP!

Wasn’t Mauer better than Jeter in 06?

Maybe someone had him above Jeter but…

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=100038

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=y&type=6&season=2006&month=0

VORP had Santana over Jeter in 2006 but it was by .1 runs and these number just aren’t that precise.

[35] You are right. 2006 Mauer was robbed by his teammate. And in 2006 I would have been OK with Jeter stealing the MVP, because the difference between these two wasn’t that big.

Why is everyone saying Mauer over Jeter in 2006?  Where is that coming from?

Mauer wasn’t robbed by Morneau in 2006.  He was robbed by the idiot Minnesota sportswriters who pushed the shiny rbi guy over the real heart of their home team.

And Jeter was every bit as deserving, anyway.  It really was a tossup, and they both got screwed.

Wasn’t Mauer better than Jeter in 06?

Not according to fangraphs (Jeter 6.3 WAR, Mauer 6.1 WAR), but I know fangraphs doesn’t account for catcher defense, blah blah blah.

Actually in 06, Sizemore was the leader in WAR, Jeter 2nd, Mauer 4th, and Morneau was 14th.

If Mauer loses the MVP to Jeter, he’ll be so super pissed that come 2011 he’ll conduct talks with no other team but Boston.

But they will be signing a catcher who has a bad back and is already being converted to a DH. Yep, I said something bad about the almighty Mauer, dealt with it world.

MC, [34], [36], and [40] were all excellent.

Where is that coming from?

I think it mostly comes from thinking that he caught 140 games because he played 140 games.

Actually in 06, Sizemore was the leader in WAR

But of course, Sizemore couldn’t win because he played for a team that finished fourth.

[47] Merci.  But the credit for [40] goes to Mr. Google.

BTW, one could construct a reasonable argument that in 2006, Mauer robbed Jeter and handed the award to his undeserving team-mate.  If Jeter had taken the batting title, I’m pretty sure he’d have won the MVP.

But of course, Sizemore couldn’t win because he played for a team that finished fourth.

I talked about the offensive stats not being absolutely precise, don’t get me started on the defensive stats.  They are great to have around but you can’t really base anything on them and they would be the only reason to put Grady over Jeter in 2006.  Kind of like how no one is taking Zobrist seriously this year.

[50] - As silly as it is, you could be right.  However in 2006 I got the feeling from the press coverage that they were in full “Anyone but Jeter” mode for some reason.  Now, it seems the press is on his side for some reason (maybe the negative steroids press recently).

sd, why would you want to waste a well-reasoned argument about the unreliability of defensive metrics just to mess with some prime RLYW snark?

[48] in 2006 at age 23 Mauer caught 120 games and was a DH 17 games. That same year a 34 year old Jorge Posada caught 134 games, was a DH in 2 games and played 3 innings at 1B.

The real difference between 2006 and 2009 is that Jeter/Mauer was debatable.  It really isn’t this year.  If Jeter wins it, it will simply be that the Yankees are in the postseason and the Twins are not, and a scandalous but unsurprising number of BBWAA members rate that as first priority.  It’s like they only choose players from the pool of teams in the playoffs.

OPS is a convenient measure of overall hitting.  Jeter ranks 6th among the Yanks regulars (and behind Hinske as well.) Jeter’s OPS barely exceeds Cano’s and Godzilla’s.  Jeter is 8th in RBIs.  He’s only second in runs scored, despite having the most plate appearances.

I love Jeter.  I’m surprised and thrilled that he’s having such a good season at bat, on the bases, and in the field.  However, IMHO he’s nowhere near the league MVP.

Hinske’s a part-time player and Matsui is a DH.  Swisher and Damon don’t play premium defensive positions and Rodriguez missed a month and a half.  OPS is a convenient measure of overall hitting, but rate stats alone can’t measure a player’s value to his team.

However, IMHO he’s nowhere near the league MVP.

Well, the case I am making is that I don’t care what is right or just. I am a Yankees fan and like when they win games and championships, and enjoy when their players win awards.

If Jeter wins (or steals) the award from Mauer, I will be happy about it.

Where did Pedroia rank in OPS, relative to his mates, last year? 

If I had a vote, it would be hard not to go with Mauer (which didn’t stop me BTW from chanting “MVP” at Camden Yards last week). 

But—and this is totally POOMA—I think the writers are even more weak-kneed for Jeter than ever.  And perhaps part of it is because they’ve always crushed on him while the mom’s basement crowd was leading the chorus carping about his poor range and possible overall decline.  Now, to vindicate themselves, BBWAA gives the hardware to Jeter.

Also I think this slightly overhyped Gehrig chase is contributing to the Jeter aura in a way that will help when the votes are tallied.

Yeah, using rate stats for MVP discussion doesn’t make much sense, especially if you are going to ignore Jeter’s edge in baserunning.

Mauer’s been worth about ten runs more than Jeter in context-neutral stats.  He’s been more valuable than Jeter in that sense, but there are still four weeks to play, enough time to narrow the gap to the point that a case can be made for either.  There are also several other players roughly as valuable as Jeter who should be considered candidates as well.

FWIW,  Zack Greinke has arguably been just as valuable as Mauer and no one seems to care that he’s not even being considered as a viable MVP candidate.

Greinke gets the Cy Young though.

the Yankees are in the postseason and the Twins are not, and a scandalous but unsurprising number of BBWAA members rate that as first priority

Without Jeter, the Yankees probably don’t make the playoffs (see 2008, Posada, J.) If they do (I think with Ransom/Pena at SS, they don’t, but ok…) it’s a WC fight down the wire with the Rays (or Twins ?).

The Twins, even with Mauer, have been booking winter condos and tee times in Scottdale for several weeks.

So Jeter’s value: Division plus home field throughout vs. WC or worse.
Mauer’s value: miss the playoffs by 10 vs. miss the playoffs by 15.

I guess I’m saying it doesn’t offend me for someone to CONSIDER the team’s accomplishments. Not the first qualification, but a valid consideration once you’re at the short list.

Without Jeter, the Yankees probably trade for someone fairly good to play 3rd while upgrading at ss.

Maybe four years ago.  Not likely that they slide the 34 year old coming off of hip surgery who hasn’t played the position since 2003 over to SS.  Much less likely that it’s a defensive upgrade.

Yeah, actually based on ARod’s defensive #‘s at SS the last few years, it could actually be a *downgrade*.  ARod’s no longer a SS.  When he moves off of 3rd, it will be to RF, 1B, or DH, depending on lots of factors of course.

I think A-Rod will play 3B until he’s 40, then wind down his career as a ludicrously overpaid part-time 1B/DH chasing the HR record.

SG- at the risk of committing true heresy on this site and disagreeing with you- of all things, Jeter is not having a good season on the basepaths. At least accoridng to the baseball prospectus metric.

The summary for the yanks: http://baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=469915

the summary for the twins (for comparison’s sake):
http://baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=469750

Do the BPro folks really think that the quality of opportunities to take extra bases on batted balls evens out over sample sizes that small?

[65]  Maybe.  Depends on what the Yankees’ needs are, and who (if anyone) they have to replace him.  And ARod’s health, of course.  I really don’t know if the when is next year (unlikely, but possible), or 2020 (also unlikely) though ...

[66] Even if you assume the numbers are “correct”, it just means he’s average (less than 1/4 run).  Baseball Projection doesn’t have his numbers for this year yet, but he’s been a positive in each full season, though he’s been trending downwards.

“Maybe four years ago.”

Oh, I thought we were talking about 2006.  This year we’re still leading the division even with a RL ss if Jeter’s really worth 5 wins, no?

SG- at the risk of committing true heresy on this site and disagreeing with you- of all things, Jeter is not having a good season on the basepaths. At least accoridng to the baseball prospectus metric.

That’s it.  You’re banned.

Actually, I encourage anyone who disagrees with me about something to go ahead and do it, especially if I’m clearly wrong about something. 

In this instance, I was only looking at SB/CS for Jeter (22 SB, 5 CS), which is worth 2.5 runs of value, I didn’t think about the non-SB baserunning.  I usually don’t pull the non-SB data in until end of season, but maybe I should do it now.

This year we’re still leading the division even with a RL ss if Jeter’s really worth 5 wins, no?

Essentially, you could replace any player on the team with a replacement level player and the Yankees would still be in first place given that their most valuable players have been Sabathia and Jeter at around 5.0 WAR, and their lead in the division is 3.5 games larger than that.

I was thinking the RS/Rays do a little better because they play us so often, which should have a disproportionate (well, actually, proportionate) effect on the lead.  Also it’s probably necessary to allow the RS at least to try harder down the stretch given the incentive of not accepting the onerous wc hardships.  Of course the Yankees would also be spending Jeter’s salary on another free agent in this scenario, so ...  Maybe the most valuable player to a team maximizes WAR/salary.