Wednesday, July 30, 2008
What is Two Months of Pudge Rodriguez Worth?
With Jorge Posada out for the year, the Yankees catching has been a sore spot. Jose Molina's done the job defensively but he can't hit. Chad Moeller is not even as good as Molina. So the Yankees made a good move earlier today by picking up Pudge Rodriguez for Kyle Farnsworth.Farnsworth's having the best year of his Yankee career, but he's easily replaceable by Damaso Marte, Jose Veras, Edwar Ramirez, and just about everyone else in the pen. So the negative impact on the bullpen should be minimal.
On the position player side, the Yankees go from Molina as the starting catcher and Moeller as the backup to Rodriguez as the starter and Molina as the backup. Here's what that looks like on offense.
| Before | % | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR |
| Molina | 75% | 169 | 161 | 15 | 38 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 6 | 32 | .237 | .275 | .342 | 14 |
| Moeller | 25% | 56 | 51 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 14 | .212 | .281 | .308 | 4 |
| Total | 226 | 212 | 20 | 49 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 10 | 46 | .231 | .276 | .334 | 19 | |
| After | % | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR |
| Rodriguez | 75% | 169 | 162 | 18 | 45 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 6 | 29 | .278 | .310 | .404 | 19 |
| Molina | 25% | 56 | 54 | 5 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 11 | .237 | .275 | .342 | 5 |
| Total | 226 | 215 | 23 | 58 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 9 | 39 | .268 | .301 | .389 | 24 |
BR: Batting runs by linear weights (not position-adjusted or compared to average)
There are only 59 games left in the season. Assuming 4.1 PA per game, that's 226 PA. So the Yankees upgrade from an estimated 19 batting runs with Molina/Moeller to 24 batting runs. That's about a half-win upgrade. Defensively, Pudge + Molina is probably about 2- 3 runs better than Molina-Moeller over 59 games. So the Yankees are probably somewhere around 8 runs better over the rest of the season. Depending on the leverage/timing of those runs, that could be the difference between making the postseason or not.
The Yankees filled the biggest hole in their lineup without hurting their present or future outlook one bit. And they upgraded from a Type B free agent (Farnsworth) to a Type A (Rodriguez). Seems like another solid deal for Cashman.
Comments
plus at least 11 games in the post-season…
Gift-horsing, why isn’t this Farns plus a good AAA or maybe AA reliever?
Gift-horsing, why isn’t this Farns plus a good AAA or maybe AA reliever?
I’d guess Detroit asked for more but they are in really bad shape pen-wise so maybe they had to take this offer.
... or I take it draft picks can’t be traded because otherwise the B->A seems like a steal.
thanks for getting this stuff up so fast.
And we’re not in really bad shape at C?
OK, I now believe in Cashman’s magic wand.
Otherwise how the fizzywiggle did he pull this off?
Draft picks can’t be traded.
... or ok F is worth > 0.5 games to them? That you can calculate.
We’ll only know how these trades really went later, but it’s not fair to judge in hindsight because you can’t trade from hindsight. So I say Cashman=genius.
And we’re not in really bad shape at C?
We are, until you add an -o to the end of our catcher’s names.
Anyone who doesn’t like this trade should be banned from this board
Also, would any of the other Yankee relievers even be a Type B? Maybe another reason why Farnsworth technically had more value.
.. or ok F is worth > 0.5 games to them? That you can calculate.
Yeah, good point. Different players are worth different amounts to different teams. I think Farnsworth probably slots in as their second best reliever now, whereas on the Yankees he may have been fifth or sixth. Brandon Inge is probably about as good as Pudge now, so the Tigers were dealing from surplus as well.
I dig this move, and it has the added benefit of making me finally understand the Marte pickup.
There’s no chance Pudge accepts arbitration, right? Someone will pay him to start, I’m sure.
What if like Cash is working a trade of Sidney Ponson for Cliff Lee right now?
Yeah, Marte was acquired to be more than just a lefty specialist. I think he was primarily acquired to be TEH BRIDGE TO MARIANO™, with the added benefit of throwing with his left arm.
exactly..Marte makes more sense now. The pen is great and although Farns had not been bad, I never wanted to see The Professor in a high leverage important game, and now someone else is guaranteed to get the chance.
Do you think Torre is bummed the dodgers missed out?
It’s also pretty cool that Pudge gets to play for us. He’s a first ballot, and if he can post .345 OBP from here on out with plus defense (if that’s possible for him still) I don’t see the downside.
Cue the graybeards wondering why you would waste a lefty pitching the whole eighth inning when you could be using him pitch to just one batter.
basically, i’m talking about vintage pudge for the rest of the year, not what we’re actually getting.
What if Cash is working on a trade of Sydney Ponson for Peggy Lee right now?
Or Arthur Lee?
So, Cash has Hawk-proofed and Farns-proofed the roster in a matter of days. I can only imagine that RLYW people would be happy.
But, I would take a moment to thank Farnsworth for having a good year for the Yankees, and wish him luck. He may not have been worth much, but he really did pitch well this year, and much was asked of him because of that stupid contract that Cashman gave him in the first place. He is not that good a pitcher, but it seems like Joe Torre did not trust him much, and his confidence suffered consequently.
The fact that he was worth enough to fill the biggest roster problem is an added enough.
Well said sam.
Who would ignore rilkefan?
I like Farns and wanted him to be great…I just dont think he is. I am really upset that we had 3+ yrs of Farns with no brawls
But, I would take a moment to thank Farnsworth for having a good year for the Yankees, and wish him luck.
Sam, I was composing a similar post but you said it much more eloquently that I would have. Farnsworth was maddeningly inconsistent and I was never a fan of his performance. But he never griped about his role he never made excuses for himself. I always got the idea that he did like pitching for the Yankees, and I think he really liked playing for Girardi.
Personally, I’m rooting hard for it to be Alvin Lee!
I’m down with wishing Farnsworth the best. He seemed like a nice person.
Sox have been quiet on the trade front. Will this spur Theo to make a splash? Finally move Manny?
You know what’s mad painful. Michael Kay’s radio show.
Hahaha, Michael Kay just said trading Manny would remove protect for Ortiz… then discovers Manny hits in front of Ortiz… then says Manny getting on base ahead of Ortiz gives him protection… then I debate again whether paying for cable would be better than getting free radio.
Michael Kay has his own radio show : (
my buddy that works at fox sports says manny is headed to miami
Thank you, Farnsworth, for pitching well this year, allowing this trade to occur.
Good luck, next year! Hopefully he gets to go to a NL team and dominates and makes multiple All-Star Teams as a closer.
my buddy that works at fox sports says manny is headed to miami
Has this friend ever been right before on such trade rumors?
Via Olney: “If the Red Sox make a deal with the Marlins, it is likely they would kick in money to offset Ramirez’s salary, and they would look for three young players in return—perhaps outfielder Jeremy Hermida or outfielder Josh Willingham, plus pitchers.”
That sounds amazing.
Wow.
The only downside is all the “Pudge Rodiguez greatesteststest catcher of all time” stories we’re going to hear.
In case anyone is interested, here is ESPN’s take on the matter. Some tidbits:
“The departure of Farnsworth creates a void in the eighth inning for the Yankees. When Joba Chamberlain moved into the starting rotation and gave up that role, Farnsworth eventually stepped in and had been effective.”
Cashman points out that Marte and Ramirez could help fill that.
i hope so ship manny out i have nightmares about his at bats
“Has this friend ever been right before on such trade rumors? “
he told me the other day that tex was headed to LA
he told me the other day that tex was headed to LA
I coulda told you that.
Oh wait, you meant before it happened. Sweet deal. Hang on to that buddy’s phone number.
I’m down with wishing Farnsworth the best. He seemed like a nice person.
Paul Wilson is not inclined to agree.
So you buy stock in a hot company. Then it tanks, I mean, tanks. You sit on for three years, and then, lo and behold, said stock finally rises to its original value. What do you with it? That’s right: you sell it. Then you go home and take your family out to dinner.
“I’m down with wishing Farnsworth the best. He seemed like a nice person. “
or Affeldt
“I coulda told you that.
Oh wait, you meant before it happened. Sweet deal. Hang on to that buddy’s phone number. “
he is joe bucks intern so he gets some valuable foot massaging experience and some breaking news
he is joe bucks intern so he gets some valuable foot massaging experience and some breaking news
That guy has had cosmetic dermatology/plastic surgery, right?
this dinner is on b cash
Farnsworth was vaguely useful his first year, pretty poor but not utterly terrible his second year, and rather good his third year before being traded for a significant upgrade who also brings draft picks. On the whole, I give the Kyle Farnsworth era a solid B.
On second thought, B-. Not as bad as I would have thought before this season.
On second thought, B-. Not as bad as I would have thought before this season.
Funny, I reloaded before I was going to respond and was going to say a B- was probably more appropriate. He wasn’t horrible in his second year but he definitely struggled in high leverage situations. Perhaps his best moment was striking out Ortiz in some game I can’t quite put my finger on.
i cannot believe that boston is really planning on trading manny. They are just not the same team without him.
Didn’t Manny hit behind Ortiz some of the time over the last year or so? I seem to remember him coming up with Ortiz already on base… or is it only because he always seemed to be coming up, no matter who was on base?
I don’t understand the Boston trade either. It’s not like they’re desperate for young talent with how deep their farm system is. Are they just so sick of Manny that they’re willing to do something like this?
I seem to remember the usual Boston lineup being Ortiz third and Ramirez fourth.
John Henry really seems pissed at Manny. And Theo Epstein has always seemed a little cocky…maybe he’s convinced himself and Henry he can do this without hurting the team.
54 seems right to me.
Getting Pudge might also offset the draft picks they would lose if they sign CC.
MLB.com now saying Pittsburgh is involved with Bay going to the Sox.
My vague sense is that every time deals start to get more complicated they fall through.
Maybe the trade would give them an excuse to pick up Bonds, which would certainly be interesting.
Yeah, I seem to recall the Boston lineup going Ortiz-Manny in the 3-4 spots at least over the last 3 years or so.
From a baseball standpoint, I don’t want Bonds in Boston but it would be funny to see Gammons trying to justify it.
Steve Phillips thinks the best move would be to keep Manny. So does that mean trading him is the right move?
60 - oh, that would be just great!
61 - one of those insoluble logical paradoxes. It must indisputably be both the utterly right move and the utterly wrong move.
SOSH is going nuts with news on Manny to the Marlins. Apparently there’s also reports that the Sox would trade Manny to the Marlins for prospects, and flip some of those prospects for Jason Bay.
Farnsworth was vaguely useful his first year, pretty poor but not utterly terrible his second year, and rather good his third year before being traded for a significant upgrade who also brings draft picks. On the whole, I give the Kyle Farnsworth era a solid B.
don’t forget that Farnsworth was part of the series of events that gave us Joba Chamberlain.
the Yankees let Gordon walk, got IPK and Joba with the picks, and overpaid Farnsworth to be his replacement.
Gordon >> Farns, but i am still happy overall.
To dampen the Pudge enthusiasm, Molina has consistently been a better hitter in the second half. However, as those second half number also came as a backup, maybe it’s just more upside surprise.
Teixeira has sucked so far in his Angels debut.
Godspeed, Kyle Farnsworth. I’m glad you finally had a manager who stuck with you, and glad you performed well enough to land Pudge.
think about it this way: how would everyone have felt trading Farnsworth for ANYTHING about 6 weeks ago?
Oh my goodness gracious, will wonders never cease? Abraham reports Yankees have traded LaTroy to the Astros for a single-A infielder. Cashman has traded Hawkins for an actual breathing baseball player. Boggles the mind, it really does.
Oh my goodness gracious, will wonders never cease? Abraham reports Yankees have traded LaTroy to the Astros for a single-A infielder. Cashman has traded Hawkins for an actual breathing baseball player. Boggles the mind, it really does.
I bet it’s Koby Clemens.
Garrett Anderson, Sox killer.
Josh Beckett is getting beat like a silly bitch.
Is nice to see Beckett get lit up. Like a date with Adriana Lima-nice.
A couple things come to mind…
We have to root for the brewers to lose dont we. The further CC gets into the playoffs (if they make it).
and
WHO WILL PITCH THE EIGHTH INNING!!!111!1!1!1!1
WHO WILL PITCH THE EIGHTH INNING!!!111!1!1!1!1
Carl Pavano 
Cashman has traded Hawkins for an actual breathing baseball player.
After he could trade Tony Womack for a living human being (who actually was a AA baseball player), I don’t doubt his prowess.
Man. Didn’t realize today was a day game, got online to watch some baseball…
...and then this.
1. Love the Pudge trade. It’s called “selling high,” and six week from now when Krayzee Kyle has given up three home runs in close games for Detroit, we’re all going to like this a lot more.
2. Manny to the NL is just fine with me. It hardly matters who they get in return.
3. In honor of Beckett getting lit up, I’ll post an update to my favorite running subplot of this year:
Name IP ERA
Beckett (aka: Teh Greatest Pitcher Evar): 132.1 4.08
Mussina (aka: Toast): 126.1 3.56
That makes me so happy.
Final line for Beckett, 5.1 8 ER!!!
Dude, this is a sublimely hytserical inning for the Red Sox. I think they have like 4 errors already.
just listened to the cashman clip on lohud…sounds like moeller is done and they are going to call someone up.
I wonder what the conversation bw cash and farnsworth was like.
[22] Or Jake E. Lee? Famed Ozzy guitarist?
Check that. Two more runs in for Beckett, so he’s got a 4.22 ERA. This evening just keeps getting better!
[80] “Now Kyle, let me preface this by saying ‘Please don’t hit me.’”
Hey, condensed games are back on MLB.com! Awesome!
[22] Sandra Lee.
Sandra Lee.
I’d trade him for three Sara Lee pound cakes. He’d regret missing out on the cake.
The Astros (and the Blue Jays) should be taken over by MLB. Jesus. They have no clue, no clue at all.
The Astros (and the Blue Jays) should be taken over by MLB. Jesus. They have no clue, no clue at all.
And the Mariners and the Pirates. And probably the Orioles.
I enjoy watching the Angels demolish the Red Sox, but I’ll admit to being just a bit terrified that they’re coming here next.
And just to be clear, Sandra Lee is the hostess of the abominable “Semi-Homemade” on Food Network.
And the Mariners and the Pirates. And probably the Orioles.
And the Marlins. And the Mets.
Well, the Mariners at least had a plan. It was a bad plan, but thought went into it. Pirates have a new GM so let’s give him a chance. And the O’s have some young pitching and can beat us, so…
The Dodgers should also be taken over by MLB. Their plan involves men who spit tobacco in the dugout and old-fashioned country hardball. And guys who take no sass.
Men like Old Thurm! Or at least his Katt. Does Thurm the Katt chew?
Sandra Lee is the hostess of the abominable “Semi-Homemade” on Food Network.
I know all about “Aunt Sandy.” That woman gives me the creeps.
Pirates have a new GM so let’s give him a chance.
The problems in Pittsburgh emanate from ownership, from what I understand. I don’t think Branch Rickey could turn that team around.
Well, the Mariners at least had a plan. It was a bad plan, but thought went into it.
That doesn’t explain Jose Vidro and Miguel Cairo. That team is a wreck.
I am wondering if Florida really wants Manny. I mean they are two back, but why would you want a guy with that attitude even for a couple of months? I think there continues to be a bit too cozy a relationship between John H and the Marlins.
Alvin Lee. Screw it I’m goin home.
Cant wait for Pudge to tell Bugs Bunny to “gas em yo”. “Yer change ain’t shit dog”. “I gotta throw this runner out”. ” Offspeeds for maricons”. “wanna get bigger”?
That should aid Edwars cause.
Pudge was the best defensive catcher I’ve ever seen.
I think he be cooked and hope I’m wrong.
baseball prospectus (will caroll) is reporting that the redsox/pirates/marlins have a trade in place that needs to be signed off by the commish.
oh no!
Fgas- Chew this.
look, Jason Bay is a decent return on a guy who basically forced them to make a trade.
and Bay might make them better next year.
but i will be THRILLED to see Manny off the Red Sox. thrilled.
Next entry: Replacing Manny Ramirez with Jason Bay
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