The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Monday, August 18, 2008

What Does Xavier Nady’s Fluke Season Tell Us?

The Yankees still have a long hill to climb if they're going to be in the playoffs this season, but that's not Xavier Nady's fault. Since being acquired from Pittsburgh on July 25, Nady has been killing the ball, with a line of .312/.391/649 as a Yank, with 7 HRs in only 77 AB. Nady has an OPS+ of 145 overall this season including his time in Pittsburgh, after never breaking 107.

Nady is 29, which means he's past the point where gains are typically made, but that doesn't mean that he hasn't improved. He's likely not as good as he appears to be right now, but there's a very good chance that he'll be better in 2009 than he has been in every season other than 2008

Nady's performance to this point got me thinking about fluke seasons and if they have any predictive value. So, I pulled up my Lahman database and started messing around with it to see if there was anything I could put together that would help me answer my question.

After fiddling around with a few different things, I came up with an approach that made sense to me.

1. I did very basic Marcel-like retroactive projections back through 1978. I used a 3/2/1 weight for seasons N, N-1, N-2 (where N is the current year). I did not do any projecting of the first two years of any player's career, and I did not include any MLEs or park factors. I then added in 500 league average plate appearances from the season in question to regress towards the mean and factored in aging for the component stats as well.

2. When that was done, I compared the projections for every season and player to what they actually did. If a player exceeded his projection by a certain amount, I considered that a fluke season.

3. I then calculated two separate projections going forward (N + 1) from every fluke season. One using the actual fluke season data, and one used the projection entering the fluke season instead. Those two projections were then compared to the actual performance in year N+1.

4. For the comparisons, I used wOBA (weighted on base average), which is basically the rate version of linear weights, scaled to OBP. So, a wOBA of .300 is bad, a wOBA of .330 is around average, .400 is great, etc., wOBA is easily converted to runs using the formula PA x wOBA / 1.15.

5. I set my cut off for a fluke season at a wOBA 15% better than projected. I also eliminated any seasons of fewer than 300 plate appearances. Why 15%? Because according to this post at The Book blog, the standard deviation for wOBA is SQRT(wOBA*(1.1-wOBA)/PA). So looking at an average .330 wOBA over 500 PA, we get an SD of .022, which means that 2 standard deviations better than that would be around 14%. Also, I'm only looking at positive fluke seasons for now.

6. This is not supposed to be a rigorous study. If it was, I'd want to do a lot more adjusting for context, with league and park adjustments and I'd probably include more than just the past 30 seasons. This is just a quick and dirty look to see if there's something there.

I don't know about most of you, but when the term 'fluke season' comes up, I instantly think of Brady Anderson in 1996. Anderson entered 1996 with 72 HRs in 3271 career ABs, with a career SLG of .393. At 32, odds of him improving would seem slim. So what happened? Anderson hit 50 HRs and slugged .637. It was one of the most incongruous performances in MLB history.

Now, obviously Anderson was never that good again, but it's interesting to look at what happened in 1997.

Player Brady Anderson
Year 1996
Age 32
Projected wOBA for 1996 .346
Actual wOBA for 1996 .431
wOBA Difference 24.7%
Original Projected wOBA for 1997 .342
Revised Projected wOBA for 1997 .379
Actual wOBA for 1997 .375
Original Difference 9.6%
Revised Difference -1.0%


So we see that coming into 1996, Anderson was projected to have a wOBA of .346, but he was 24.7% better than that at .431. Anderson's original projection for 1997 just used his 1996 projection instead of his actual 1996 numbers. The revised projection used the actual numbers. You can see that a subsequent comparison shows that even though his 1996 was a fluke, it did tell us something, as Anderson's revised projection was much closer to his actual 1997 performance than his original projection would have been.

One example doesn't make a case of course, so here are a few others to look at.

In my mind, the second biggest fluke season ever was Adrian Beltre in 2004. Beltre had youth on his side as well as a very good reputation as a prospect, but had hit just .262/.320/.428 for his career entering 2004, with an OPS+ of 97 and a career wOBA of .313. His 2004 retro-projection would have been for a line of .250/.303/.425 (wOBA of .310) thanks in large part to a dreadful 2003 where he hit just .240/.290/.424.

So what happened?

Player Adrian Beltre
Year 2004
Age 25
Projected wOBA for 2004 .311
Actual wOBA for 2004 .418
wOBA Difference 34.5%
Original Projected wOBA for 2005 .314
Revised Projected wOBA for 2005 .359
Actual wOBA for 2005 .305
Original Difference -2.7%
Revised Difference -15.2%


Yeah, Beltre hit .334/.388/.629 instead, good for a wOBA of .418. When compared to his projection coming into 2004, this was an even bigger fluke than Anderson's, although as I mentioned before Beltre was relatively young which made improving more realistic for him.

Unlike Anderson, Beltre gave back all of his gains and then some in 2005, as his projection for 2005 would have been closer if we used his 2004 projection instead of his 2004 actual line.

I've got one more single case to look at, which I'm hoping is predictive in the case of Nady,

Paul O'Neill came to the Yankees in a trade for Roberto Kelly in the 1992-1993 offseason. O'Neill was about to turn 30 and to that point had hit .259/.336/431 for his career in Cincinnati (wOBA of .323). He'd have projected to hit .256/.345/.418 (wOBA of .322) in 1993. Instead, he hit .311/.367/.504(wOBA of .370).

Player Paul O'Neill
Year 1993
Age 30
Projected wOBA for 1993 .322
Actual wOBA for 1993 .370
wOBA Difference 14.9%
Original Projected wOBA for 1994 .325
Revised Projected wOBA for 1994 .346
Actual wOBA for 1994 .435
Original Difference 33.6%
Revised Difference 25.7%


In O'Neill's case, he had tangibly improved and 1994 saw him hit even better.

Lastly, here's a look at the combined data for all players who exceeded their projected wOBA by 15% or more in any given season from 1978 - 2007.

Player All
Year N
Projected wOBA for year N .324
Actual wOBA for year N .389
wOBA Difference 20.1%
Original Projected wOBA for N + 1 .324
Revised Projected wOBA for N+1 .352
Actual wOBA for N+1 .346
Original Difference -6.5%
Revised Difference 1.6%


The general point here is that a fluke season can often be an indicator of a change in a player's skill. While the fluke season itself overstates it, when it is rolled into the player's projection going forward, we can see that in many cases the player has tangibly improved. This is probably common sense but I always like to validate CW statistically if i can.

Player Xavier Nady
Year 2008
Age 29
Projected wOBA for 2008 .339
Actual wOBA for 2008 .411
wOBA Difference 21.2%
Original Projected wOBA for 2009 .335
Revised Projected wOBA for 2009 .353
Actual wOBA for 2009 TBD
Original Difference TBD
Revised Difference TBD


Let's hope Nady's more Paulie than Adrian.

Update: More Random Pie Charts!




--Posted at 8:14 pm by SG / 129 Comments | - (951)

Comments

Page 2 of 2 pages:  <  1 2

Body builders love it, but they don’t use it when training—they take it immediately before contests because it makes you retain water so you look bulkier and buffer.

This doesn’t make sense as body builders usually try to look leaner for competition, usually dropping their calorie intake by a pretty massive amount and dehydrating. Bodybuilding is generally less about pure size than it is size and definition.

Limiting CC might actually be in the best interest of the Brewers, not CC.

Yeah, he certainly seemed to hit a bit of a wall last October.  OTOH, I think the Brewers’ pen was pretty worn out.  But when you get to the point of warming a guy up anyway, and sending the pitching coach out to the mound to get him more time to get loose, then you might as well go ahead and make the move.

What can a player do to protect himself from abuse in this situation?  Does he just refuse to take the ball at a certain point?

I’m pretty sure that if CC tells his manager and/or pitching coach that he’s gassed after the eighth, they aren’t going to send him back out there.

This doesn’t make sense as body builders usually try to look leaner for competition, usually dropping their calorie intake by a pretty massive amount and dehydrating. Bodybuilding is generally less about pure size than it is size and definition.

Well, I don’t actually follow body building, just some of what body builders write about hGH on their blogs.

Magic!

Meanie.

there’s no objective evidence that hGH improves eyesight

Of course not.  There’s not too much objective evidence because of ethics concerns related to testing HGH and steroids on humans.  HGH just may be a snake oil, but it’s not a foregone conclusion.  If HGH gives even a slight advantage, then you can be sure athletes will use it.  The marginal benefit doesn’t have to be that large when talking about professional athletes competing for millions of dollars over a relatively short career.

Anyway, one other thing Yatt—steroids do build muscle.  Well documented in the medical literature, both with and without weight training.

No.  You can’t build muscle with a drug.  Some steroids improve the body’s ability to build more muscle quicker, but you can’t take a drug and watch your muscle mass simply grow.

ym—Just Google, there are plenty of HTML tutorials.

I think it’s disabled on RLYW, but you type

<font color=“red”>red text</font>

or instead of “red”, you can type “#000000”, where 000000 is the six-digit hexadecimal code for the color you want.

Hope this doesn’t break anything. smile

A stupid non-HTML proficient person asks: how do you change the font colors in your posts?

I’m not doing it intentionally, but when i use the [_code_] tag (without _) to format my tables it happens with our software for some reason.

93/94/95 - is that the official onset of the steroid era?  I’m guessing there were early adopters making the peak and then the mean shifted, or those who were going to use did.  This ought to correlate with precipitous declines for non-users, so you should see a lot of not fluky bad but still downgrade seasons around then.

Here are all the positive and negative fluke seasons (+/- 15% or more, with ages).  Coincidentally enough, there are exactly 181 of each, and the average age of both samples is 28.

Year  #+Fl AvAge  #-Fl AvAge
1978    0    0     0    0
1979    0    0     0    0
1981    3    30    5    28
1982    5    29    7    29
1983    5    28    4    29
1984    3    29    11   30
1985    7    29    4    26
1986    6    29    3    31
1987    10   28    2    25
1988    3    30    15   28
1989    4    26    12   27
1990    8    27    3    27
1991    6    30    8    30
1992    5    27    13   27
1993    11   27    5    32
1994    23   28    1    26
1995    13   28    1    29
1996    8    28    4    25
1997    5    29    5    25
1998    5    30    6    28
1999    9    28    4    30
2000    11   28    2    35
2001    4    30    13   29
2002    1    34    18   28
2003    4    32    6    27
2004    13   28    3    28
2005    3    28    10   28
2006    5    27    3    28
2007    1    32    13   29
Total  181   28   181   28 

Where #+Fl = positive fluke, #-Fl = negative fluke, and AvAge = average age.

“Carl Pavano has worked his butt off. “

Almost literally…

Matsui is back!

YANKEES (66-58)
Damon CF
Jeter SS
Abreu RF
A. Rodriguez 3B
Giambi 1B
Nady LF
Matsui DH
Cano 2B
I. Rodriguez C
Rasner RHP


Thanks for the font color tips!

‘“He’s not the villain he’s cast as,” Cashman, who signed Pavano to the contract, said Monday. “Carl Pavano has worked his butt off. He’s always tried. He just hasn’t stayed healthy. No one is trying to avoid him.”’


Well, ok, this is what I’ve argued for.  But the avoidance part is just a lie.  Consider Mussina throwing him under the bus and bragging about it.  Which I would really hold against Moose if he hadn’t done so much for the Yankees, though on the other hand I expect more from a veteran leader while (could go either way) obviously Moose doesn’t have any experience with fighting injuries.

“Wouldn’t a coward or a malingerer have done the exact opposite and used it as an excuse to jump right back on the DL for the rest of the year?”

“Bruised buttocks” can’t be gotten past by a lot of people (or the ribs thing is read as Pavano being a) a malingerer and b) when he’s not a) he’s being stupid and lying about it).  For that matter the term showed the team throwing him under the bus at the time, whatever Cashman says now, when Pavano will pitch this year and might be of some non-zero trade or otherwise value.

I wish (good) Rasner were back…

“If Tex is too pricey, I’d seriously look at a 1B platoon of Nady/Miranda. “

I seriously don’t see something like this happening whether it has merit or not. If the Yanks miss postseason and its about a 90% lock at this point, the brothers Stein will not open the new stadium with creative budget saving platoons.  There will be a lot of wholesale changes and I don’t have any idea of whether we fans will approve or whether they will be smart ones that benefit the team.  My first inkling is that we won’t have shared positions though.  Cashman may be courted for a new contract but I see his powers being a bit diminished in 09 if he elects to re-up.  He may not re-sign as a result. There will be one or two free agents added from this list and maybe I’m missing some names.

Sabathia
Texiera
Burnett (thanks yup)
Sheets
Burrell

as to the lefty righty balance. It’s anyones guess what Posada will be able to do next year. I certainly hope he will catch effectively the majority of time. Matsui and Damon should be considered one player because one or the other gets hurt each year.  What about CF? Should the team go hard for a now fix or be patient and gamble that within a couple of years AJax will be ready. He’s at AA with a .290 avg and limited power and K’s a lot.  Melky put up those kind of numbers at AAA and he aint cutting it these days.  I think the Brothers will be more prone to trade youth rather than continue the patient approach. Afterall the minor leagues graduates for 2008 have performed very poorly in contrast to expectations.  Edwar and Joba and to a lesser extent Veras and Robertson being the exceptions.

Edwar and Joba and to a lesser extent Veras and Robertson being the exceptions

Numerically, that is a greater number than those who have underperformed.
For underperformed who do you include? Kennedy, Duncan, and ...?
Hughes was an injury and Gardner doesn’t have a significant sample.
Everybody else they called up wasn’t really considered a prospect before the season started

There’s not too much objective evidence because of ethics concerns related to testing HGH and steroids on humans.

And yet, amazingly, these drugs have been tested on humans.

If HGH gives even a slight advantage, then you can be sure athletes will use it.  The marginal benefit doesn’t have to be that large when talking about professional athletes competing for millions of dollars over a relatively short career.

Athletes will use it even if it doesn’t do squat.  It just has to have a perceived benefit.  And it clearly has that among athletes, especially WRT to injury recovery/rehab.

you can’t take a drug and watch your muscle mass simply grow.

Actually, you can.  Testosterone and related drugs have been shown to significantly increase lean body mass even without resistance training.  Now, a healthy young male who is already weight training certainly won’t add to his already substantial muscle if he starts using steroids and stops working out, but an out of shape slug really can add muscle mass just by taking a drug.

That lineup looks awesome - come on, don’t suck!!

Looking at the numbers, Cervilli, finally healthy has come out of the gate hot!

And I don’t think AJax strikes out a lot but it doesn’t matter, there are no long term options in CF available this offseason, the Yanks are going to hope he pans out no matter what.

Pavano ... might be of some non-zero trade or otherwise value.

I can’t see any trade value at this point.  He’d have to be on another team’s roster by the end of the month, so we’re talking about maybe two starts before he’d have to be traded.  Even if he somehow manages to pitch two gems, who’s going to want to pay $1M+ for a month of Carl Pavano?  And if the Yankees are paying him to pitch for someone else, what’s the point?

“Numerically, that is a greater number than those who have underperformed.
For underperformed who do you include? Kennedy, Duncan, and ...?”

I don’t think Phil Hughes is getting a total forgiveness regardless of his injury.  He’s took a serious beating along with Kennedy this year when he did perform and the fact that he seems to be a bit injury prone has likely had an effect on the Stein brothers.  I would think if they could have looked into the crystal ball for 08 they would have moved ahead with the Santana deal.  Hughes has looked good in 07, but he has a lot to prove again to reestablish his can’t miss status. 

My point was not as to one of the number of failures but more in terms of the effect on the Steinbrother thinking.  If you want numbers add Olendorff, Kennedy and Duncan and throw in Melky’s regression into the mix.  I also qualified Veras and Edwar as so-so contributors which may be a bit harsh. They have made some strides forward at least.

I meant Robertson of course on that last line.

Random question (I seem to be full of them today): can a position player playing the field shift to the DH slot during the game?

“what’s the point?”

To get someone useful if expensive and not hated in the clubhouse back?

Anyway, the intended function of “or otherwise” above is to make this moot.

Scratch that, I just looked it up.

And yet, amazingly, these drugs have been tested on humans.

Really?  I’d love to see it.  Do a standard double-blind scientific study and feed an unknown participant steroids or HGH.  Don’t think so.  It hasn’t been done.  But if it has, it shouldn’t have.  It’s the same reason why you’ve never seen a scientific study on the effects of cocaine or methamphetamines.

Actually, you can.  Testosterone and related drugs have been shown to significantly increase lean body mass even without resistance training.  Now, a healthy young male who is already weight training certainly won’t add to his already substantial muscle if he starts using steroids and stops working out, but an out of shape slug really can add muscle mass just by taking a drug.

I’d love to see the study that proves that.

Many thousands of kids have taken HGH in large doses for long periods.  If eyesight improved wrt to cohort, someone surely would have noticed, esp. since the question is current.  And given the scrutiny following the vCJD fiasco.

And, well, note that there have been experiments giving HGH to kids not HGH-deficient.

To get someone useful if expensive and not hated in the clubhouse back?

But you can’t get anything back if nobody wants to trade for him.  So what’s the point of giving him away and paying the rest of what he’s owed if nobody is going to give you anything back?

Really?  I’d love to see it.  Do a standard double-blind scientific study and feed an unknown participant steroids or HGH.  Don’t think so.  It hasn’t been done.  But if it has, it shouldn’t have.

Do a pub-med search.  It’s free.  Lots of these studies have been done with all the appropriate institutional oversight.  Most of the studies don’t speak to athletic performance enhancement because they either aren’t done in elite athletes or they don’t involve the kinds of supra-physiologic doses that PED abusers are willing to take.  Giving those doses would in fact, be unethical, and such a study would never be approved.  So while there’s never going to be any good data on just how much benefit Ben Johnson got from his specific doping regimen, there’s lots of evidence of what lower doses of testosterone can do for or to people.

It’s the same reason why you’ve never seen a scientific study on the effects of cocaine or methamphetamines.

Cocaine and methamphetamine are Schedule I drugs; anabolic steroids are Schedule III.  It’s virtually impossible to do any human research on Schedule I drugs; it’s a whole heluuva lot easier get approval to study schedule III drugs.

I’d love to see the study that proves that.

Like I said, Pub-Med.

Posit that Pavano is useful, expensive, and hated by the org (hence locally of less value though not globally).  Why not trade him for someone slightly less useful but expensive?  Or, well, pay his salary since you’re doing it anyway and get someone as useful back, esp. if you don’t want to go forward with Pavano but might with player x after getting a look at him?

MC - thanks for the PubMed reference.  Pretty cool database.  I spent the better portion of the Yanks/Jays game looking through it and haven’t found a study showing steroids build muscle on their own.  Not one.  If you have the study bookmarked, I’d love to see it.

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