I’m trying to use my entire post quota for the month tonight.

OK so I’m not one of these hardasses about roster efficiency. I like having guys on the team who are fun and versatile and make me want to root for them to succeed.  I’m really liking the team that Cashman is building for next year. I dig the idea of a five man outfield rotation where all five have played a passable centerfield. Is this the most efficient? No, you’d love Holliday obviously, but for the years. Damon but for the years, in a different context. Cameron might get a better offer. Carl Crawford is not walking through that door.

But this way you can get any DH you want and not overpay. Matsui, Johnson, Delgado, Guerrero, Thome. For sentimental reasons and baseball ones, I’d prefer one of the former two. If it doesn’t work out, do something at the trade deadline. And just as a crazy experiment, you get platoon rotations and superb defense in the outfield, while not f***ing with your super-productive infield. All of a sudden your pitching might look a bit better. I find Cervelli and Pena kind of charming, and you could try Russo if you want someone who can hit more than Pena. Get another Hairston type at the deadline if need be; consider that a guy like him will always want to sign with a team that can play him as a regular, but that same team will always be out of the hunt and dealing. You don’t sign a guy like that in December.

SP you’ll have CC, AJ, BC. Either Hughes and Chamberlain plus an bandaged wing high upside type. Or you want to get crazy see if you can get Le Roy for one of the young guns without giving up El Jesus.

BP Mo and whoever else isn’t hung over that day.

The other thing that makes sense is that if you do get Matsui or Johnson, you actually might be maximizing their utility if you sit them for Posada 30 times, Jeter 5 times, A-Rod 15 times, etc. Well other than Nick the Stick giving some love with the glove.

The only thing that could seriously derail that team would be a season-ending injury to Posada, A-Rod, or Sabathia, but that would spell doom in almost any scenario.

If you’re a Yankees fan, those are some tasty projections for AJax.  The more I’ve thought about it, the more I’ve realized that his biggest value to the Yanks was as a trade chip.

If those projections are even close to accurate, I think you could even argue that the best player the Yankees gave up in the trade was IPK, not AJax.

Btw, CHONE on Hoffman:

Hoffmann, Jamie OF 25 119 358 43 90 18 3 7 44 11 8 37 69 3 398 0.251 0.327 0.377 -14 1

.251/.327/.377 includes hitting against RHP, obviously.  Can we break it down to just vs. LHP?  Is this guy a good defender?

btw, the Yankees’ Rule V pick, from RAB:

“Via Joel Sherman, the Yankees will take Dodgers’ outfielder Jamie Hoffmann first overall in the Rule 5 Draft. Hoffmann, 25, hit .291-.390-.466 with 23 doubles, 10 homers, and 15 steals between Double- and Triple-A last year. He also had an uneventful 24 plate appearance cameo with the Dodgers.

The righthanded batter was ranked the Dodgers 22nd best prospect by Baseball America prior to the 2009 season, and their handbook says he can capably play all three outfield spots. Against lefty pitchers last year, Hoffmann was a .308-.432-.542 hitter. I approve.”

It seems like it would be hard for Hoffman to stick on the 25 man roster if the Yankees acquire another LF’er and hold on to both Melky and Gardner, but on the surface, this looks like about as decent a pick as you’re going to get in the Rule V draft… Having just acquired Granderson, I especially like Hoffman’s splits vs LHP.

The more I’ve thought about it, the more I’ve realized that his biggest value to the Yanks was as a trade chip.

If those projections are even close to accurate, I think you could even argue that the best player the Yankees gave up in the trade was IPK, not AJax.

I think that is the case.  IPK was and remains a very good pitching prospect.  AJax is more projection than performance, and even the projection has a pretty low ceiling.  He could end up being a righty Brett Gardner with less speed and slightly more power.  If Jackson hits his ceiling, I won’t miss him.  It’s only if he dramatically exceeds it.  IPK, on the other hand, I’d miss if he turns himself into a solid #3 starter.  I always liked him, too.  I like little righty pitchers w/o great stuff.  Crafty righties, if you will.

I think too many people get hung up on the notion of “winning” a trade, and feel any trade that’s not clearly an obvious win by their team’s GM is a bad one.

Agree wholeheartedly.  There also seems to be much consternation over Granderson’s flaws, as though a flawed player can’t be the best available option to improve a team for a given time-frame.

The big winners in this trade are AJax and IPK, who went from being relegated to years of being fringe major leaguers on a team with little patience for youngsters to having full-time starting jobs that are basically theirs to lose next year.

[8] Indeed. It puts you in a funny position as a Yankees fan, rooting for guys like that to succeed but not enough to, you know, make you have regrets. (I hear D-Ras is doing great work for the Golden Eagles… I wonder whatever happened to Igawa. Oh. I see.)

[9] lol, exactly.  I’m sort of rooting for IPK to become a competent 5th starter, but not so good that trading him away looks bad.

[10] I’m kind of rooting for A-Jax to be on Sportscenter every night making a crazy-ass Willie Mays catch. But also striking out a lot. Then again, I’d have to watch Sportscenter, so on second thought…

If the post-injury reports are right, Rob, IPK’s stuff may now turn you off a bit.  I think his ceiling might be #2 if there’s any truth to those reports.
But I don’t need AJ/IPK to be worse than I thought to make this a good trade, and I wish them well.  But right now, I like our chances… possibly, in part, because I think CAIRO is undervaluing Granderson.  We have to judge the trade by how it looks now, right?

It’s problematic, though, for me to think that CAIRO is undervaluing Granderson, isn’t it?  Obviously, SG and CAIRO know a lot more than I do.  Even if they don’t see NYS as a great HR park - even then it’s got to be better than Acme Bank and Used Suspenders Park, no?  But I guess regression steps in to bring his power numbers down to no higher than what they have been heretofore?
The collected numbers that give me some hope include these, collected from posts here:

Granderson’s career road OPS vs LHP is a perfectly acceptable .731
Granderson’s career splits vs LHP:

RHB vs RHP—.257/.319/.407 .725 68,593 PA
RHB vs LHP—.269/.347/.430 .777 67,257 PA
LHB vs RHP—.268/.341/.430 .771 35,964 PA
LHB vs LHP—.247/.317/.386 .703 15,246 PA

Well, AJax ceiling is probably more like Bernie Williams so I would miss him if he hits it.  That being said, the odds of him being more than Coco Crisp are awfully low so I don’t get too much caught up in it.

The interesting thing is whether or not they can move Melky or Gardner.  One of them has to go I think to make the roster work, especially if they end up keeping Hoffman.

The Hoffman pick could signal that Melky is gone if the Yankees sign a LF. He will likely get a fairly big raise, so he could be becoming too expensive to keep, unless, of course, he becomes the starting LF.

I agree with what has been said above. My reservations about the Granderson deal, which are fading, related to trading IPK.

[12: park effects]

There was a post from River Ave. Blues yesterday, I think it was, that had C-Grand’s spray chart from last year. It looked a lot like Damon’s from last year. Or Babe Ruth after his sixth hot dog. You get my point.

I think Melky’s gone.

We may have replaced the syntax production we lost from Mussina and Ohlendorf.

As I recall, it took years and years for Mussina to break down and actually say anything at all.

[13, 14: bye bye Melky]

Why not try him until June to see if he’s progressing? What’s the hurry? Look, we got Texeira, Sabathia, and Burnett. This is one of the consequences of that. I’d Cash rather throw money at Sheets, Halladay, Chapman, etc. at this point than a quote unquote real leftfielder.

[17: taciturn Mussina]

Maybe he was writing all his quotes in crossword form.

Actually my gut feeling is that none of Damon/Matsui/Melky will be on the 2010 club.

I think Holliday is a strong likelihood, especially given the lukewarm interest elsewhere, and may go cheaper than expected - 5/100?

I then think they’ll look to get a fairly cheap DH, maybe via trade.  Willingham?  Uggla?

[15] Fangraphs had a post on Granderson at NYS and concluded that:

Right field, where Granderson hits most of his HRs, at Yankee Stadium has a much higher HR rate than right at Comerica Park. So, Granderson should see a boost to his already solid power in New York. The Yankees got not only a all-star-level player, but one well suited to their park.

Is mystery pitcher Aceves? Did I miss it somewhere?

5/100 is not cheap…aren’t the Yankees already banging up around $180M after Pettitte? Plus, in 5 years, they’d be paying Tex, CC, Alex, Holliday, and maybe Jeter $20M+/year.

If the post-injury reports are right, Rob, IPK’s stuff may now turn you off a bit.

Because he was sitting 90, hitting 93 in the AZFL?  Eh.  If he maintains that, his “stuff” is slightly better than we’ve seen from him as a Yankee, but ~1 extra mph on his fastball isn’t enough to make me think of him as a guy with great stuff.  He still fits as a crafty righty for me. 

Well, AJax ceiling is probably more like Bernie Williams so I would miss him if he hits it.

No offense, but… what?  Bernie Williams was a MONSTER in his prime.  A switch hitter with patience and power.  A guy you could comfortably hit 3rd or 4th in a championship lineup. 

I haven’t heard a single person, before you, make that comparison.

Olney:

Buster_ESPN
 
Heard this: The Yankees are in the process of negotiating with Johnny Damon’s camp.

Sherman:

It is because the Yankees are determined to get younger that I do believe they are going to keep an offer to 36-year-old Johnny Damon to one year at less than $10 million.

I think the Yankees want a quick decision from Damon on a one year contract. If he says no, they will move on to other targets, maybe Holliday.

[21] Cot’s has the Yankees at $187.5 million right now (but that counts Igawa I think, so $183.5 million without him).  That’s without factoring in minimum salary players and the arbitration cases.  If the Yankees truly want to keep payroll under $200 million (big if), Holliday is not an option.

Because he was sitting 90, hitting 93 in the AZFL?

And learning to command the cutter that Pettitte taught him.

[24] That’s probably why there has been speculation about moving Swisher.

Also, they have $140 million committed in 2011 for 9 players (doesn’t include inevitable re-signings of Jeter/Rivera).

Oooooh, I like THIS:
http://gameofinches.blogspot.com/2009/12/projecting-curtis-grandersons-2010.html

Although, as I read it through, I’m sure we wouldn’t agree with ESPN’s NYS park factor.

And what’s the deal with his “cozy right field at Fenway” thing?  OK, I’m sorry I posted this.

[22]  Eh, you’re right, that was a bit of exageration.  I was just trying to make a point that AJax’s ceiling was a lot higher than people are all of a sudden giving him credit for.  The Yankees (and myself) obviously don’t think he’ll ever get there which is another thing entirely.
Comps are hard for a guy who routinely puts up an amazing BABIP, who strikes out a lot, and doesn’t have elite power.

Gardner + Albaladejo to KC for DeJesus.  Make it happen, Cashman!

[23]

Sherman contradicts Olney:

Neither #Yankees nor Boras camp describe active negotiations on Damon, and so no quick resolution is ancitipated

The Red Sox get… Boof?

The Yankees (and myself) obviously don’t think he’ll ever get there which is another thing entirely.

Not true, about the Yankees anyway.  I think the Yankees are looking at timeframes.  Granderson is going to be playing at or around an All Star level for 3 or 4 more years at least, and likely above average for 3 or 4 after that (if they decide to resign him).  Jackson they’re probably thinking needs another year in the minors, so next year he’s essentially worth 0 runs.  Probably they’re thinking 2012 (or so) he’ll be average, and after that he may get to All Star level.  I still think his *ceiling* is All Star quality, but yes, it now looks like it is 4-5 years out, and then may only be for another couple of years.

So, get (known) All Star quality for the next 3-4 years when you know you have the talent to be perennial WS contenders?  Or get the (potential) All Star quality 4-5 years out, when it may be more like Bobby Mercer (not saying Jackson will get that good) on the late-60’s/early 70’s Yankees?  I think that was a lot of it.  I actually doubt there were more than 2 or 3 non-CF players they would have included Jackson for (that were reasonably available).

I’m pretty sure the Yankees discount rate is higher than basically every other club in terms of time-value.

I think too many people get hung up on the notion of “winning” a trade, and feel any trade that’s not clearly an obvious win by their team’s GM is a bad one.

IMHO, you “win” a trade if it would accomplish your goals better than *not* making the trade.  E.g. if Jackson and IPK each put up 3 WAR of value and Granderson is only 4 WAR, and Yankees end up giving 25 starts to Mitre or are forced to trade for a SP, it will be tough to say they “won”.  If everyone hits their projections for the next couple of years though, even if in 2013 Granderson is gone and IPK and AJax are All Stars, Yankees probably still won; they greatly improved their team in the near-term, and have the resources to solve long-term problems when they come up.  Hopefully by then 2 or 3 other SP from their system will be making contributions and Heathcott or someone else will be ready for CF.

If Ajax really does become Granderson then they’ll trade prospects for him when he’s 29.

This could be designed to get someone else to make a decision:

Davidoff:

Increasing expectation around #MLB is that the #Yankees will eventually re-sign Hideki Matsui. Could take until January.

I’m pretty sure the Yankees discount rate is higher than basically every other club in terms of time-value.

You mean, they are more impatient and value future less than most? I think that makes sense on surface, but I am not sure if that is right.

I think they are less constrained to trade off present versus future. Not necessarily that they value future any less.

If the Yankees truly want to keep payroll under $200 million (big if), Holliday is not an option.

Not so.  I’m not sure if signing bonuses count against the luxury tax (which may be why they gave CC a $9M bonus).  If they want to keep *payroll* under $200M they may be able to do a trick like that.  Plus of course there’s always the option of backloading the contract somewhat.  E.g. if they can get him for 5/90, $12M for 2010, $18 for 2011, $20 each year after.

Chad Jennings has a nice writeup on Hoffman, for anyone that wants to go check.  Apparently, he’s supposed to be an excellent defender who could handle all 3 OF positions…platoon him w/ Granderson in CF?  Melky or Gardner in LF?  Seems Yanks will give him every chance to make the roster, and think of him as more than a 5th OF, at least long-term.

Presumably The Yanks may be able to get away with not spending much money on LF or DH and concentrating on pitching instead…

What would it take to get DeJesus?

Mark DeRosa hits LHP to an .859 career OPS.  Maybe he can be DH or LF against LHP and Util IF against everything else.  If we can land DeJesus maybe DeRosa and Jorge are the DH platoon while Granderson and Melky switch off in CF and Hoffman plays LF against LHP.

[38] +1

Actually, wouldn’t it be ironic if they really *are* clearing AJax for Heathcott to take over in 3 years, and Heathcott doesn’t play as well as hoped in AAA so they trade Heathcott to get AJax?

[36] - For position players I’d agree.  For pitching it looks like they are trying to build within as much as possible.

What would it take to get DeJesus?

From the Yankees probably Joba.  From the Red Sox probably…Nick Green (assuming still under contract). 

Sox just acquired a new ace.

Against lefty pitchers last year, Hoffmann was a .308-.432-.542 hitter. I approve.

That looks acceptable.

I’ve been following the minors more closely this year (thanks to Mike K and the Scranton blog), but apparently Kroenke and Kanekoa are two different people.

Oh, and I know projections aren’t perfect, and Fans Projections are even less so.  But if you look at FanGraphs right now, and build a team for projections, I come up with about +56 WAR for the team (knocking Melky and Brett down to about 2.5 total WAR instead of the 4.2 they project).  That’s not inluduing most of the bullpen (Mo is the only one with enough projections) or any of the bench beyond Brett Cabrera. 

I think FanGraphs a replacement-level team is 48 wins, and if you add in a few wins for bullpen/bench, the Yankees are like an 105 win team.  Be careful what you’re willing to give up to “improve” the team any more…

I don’t think that DeJesus, plus what it would cost to get him, would be worth more than just sticking with Melky.

I’ve been following the minors more closely this year (thanks to Mike K and the Scranton blog), but apparently Kroenke and Kanekoa are two different people.

You’re welcome!  I hope to provide my limited insight again next season!  Didn’t see Kanekoa pitch at all (since he was in AA the whole year).  I’m disappointed Kroenke got taken again, especially with Coke gone.  Yanks must feel that Dunn can get his BB rate down enough to be successful.  IIRC, Dunn LOOKS imposing on the mound, and pops the mitt well.

I’ll got out on a limb; Dunn’s got the kind of stuff that if he can get his BB rate under 3, he’ll compete with Robertson and Melancon for replacing Mo.  Between 3 and 4 he’ll be a lefty setup man.  If he can’t get it under 4 at best he’s a LOOGY.  Obviously, the latter is most likely.

[49] I agree that Dunn has great stuff, but it looks like his BB rate is going up, not down.

[50] True, but unless you count the 1.2 IP in AA in 2008, he also hasn’t repeated levels yet.  I’m pretty sure we expect BB rates to get worse as you go up levels.  Not that it excuses it, but I don’t know if we can say for sure it is getting worse, even though it clearly isn’t getting better.  If you look at the splits though his BB rate is much better vs. lefties, at least last year. 

Improving control greatly this late isn’t easy at all, which is why it’s unlikely he’ll be more than a LOOGY.  But I don’t know if it is impossible.  Perhaps Yanks see something that gives them hope…

Why not try him until June to see if he’s progressing? What’s the hurry?

If Damon comes back to mostly DH they could do this pretty easily.  Worst case is Gardner and Melky turn into pumpkins and the Yankees are looking for a trade to upgrade DH.

Francesser says that the Mets are about to make “a major offer” to Bay, who they like better than Holliday (as does Francesa).

Way to give the RS picks and Holliday, morons.

Honestly, the Mets best approach to doing business, given the current brain trust, should just to come to a firm conclusion as to what they think the best thing to do is - and do the opposite.
Slightly more power (to vanish at Bank-That-Thinks-Spelling-Wrong-Is-Cute-&-Makes-It-Cool-Instead-of-still-a-bank Field), worse fielding (to be shown up at Bank-That-Thinks-Spelling-Wrong-Is-Cute-&-Makes-It-Cool-Instead-of-still-a-bank Field).  Sure, a better choice than Holliday.

Bank-That-Thinks-Spelling-Wrong-Is-Cute-&-Makes-It-Cool-Instead-of-still-a-bank Field

If Citibank didn’t exist, City Field would be a decent name for a baseball stadium.

[41] Bonuses are counted for luxury tax purposes.  Signing and achieved incentives.  Can’t avoid it with those tricks.

Payroll for luxury tax is AAV for the entire 40 man roster, plus benefits (a fixed amount per team, just under $10M IIRC).  Cot’s team payrolls are opening day 25-man roster salary totals.  Cot’s future salary commitments are everything the team owes in the out years, including commitments to guys not on the 40-man roster (like Igawa).

I have no idea how the Yankees figure payroll for their own annual budgeting purposes, nor do I have any idea what their real payroll target figured that way might be.

[13, 14: bye bye Melky]

Why not try him until June to see if he’s progressing? What’s the hurry?

Right now the OF is:

Granderson, Swisher, Gardner, Melky, Hoffmann

My point reflected the fact that I think the Yankees will add an OF upgrade.

If they sign Halladay or Chapman, (I’m not as high on Sheets, but I recall that Girardi reportedly likes him) and keep Melky, that’s fine, but I don’t expect that.

[53] Actually the Mets were so bad last year they secured themselves a protected pick, so the RedSox would only get a sandwich round of it, I think.

I have no idea how the Yankees figure payroll for their own annual budgeting purposes, nor do I have any idea what their real payroll target figured that way might be.

I would suspect that the only payroll related issue is the closing the gap with the eventual goal of crossing the luxury tax threshold.  A $25M swing (excluding the luxury tax) is not a big part of their total revenue, I don’t think.

[53, 58] The Mets would lose their second round pick for signing a type A.

Lux Tax Threshold is $170M this year and $178M in 2011.  The Yankees ain’t getting under that.  Then the CBA expires and who knows what happens.

[13, 14: bye bye Melky]

If you pull up Melky’s numbers and add 5 doubles, you’ve got the same slash line as the AL LF average in 2009.  I don’t think it would be the end of the world for Melky to be the everyday LFer. They probably won’t do that, but it wouldn’t be the end of the world.

[61] Do you still have that spreadsheet with the salaries going forward 5 years? I thought that $178M was at least possible depending on what Jeter and Rivera get.

It’s problematic, though, for me to think that CAIRO is undervaluing Granderson, isn’t it?  Obviously, SG and CAIRO know a lot more than I do.  Even if they don’t see NYS as a great HR park - even then it’s got to be better than Acme Bank and Used Suspenders Park, no?  But I guess regression steps in to bring his power numbers down to no higher than what they have been heretofore?

FWIW, I think CAIRO is probably undervaluing Granderson as well. 

Is mystery pitcher Aceves? Did I miss it somewhere?

Gaudin.

[63] 2011 is at $144M for nine players.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tpQLwiiQL4kzEzLhsUqVjLQ&output=html

Minimum salaries for the 31 more players plus the benefits hit probably gets you to ~$170.  So unless Jeter and Rivera sign for $4M each, it ain’t happening.

Oh, but wait!  I forgot that there’s still $4M for Igawa in the 2011 number.  So as long as he doesn’t get added back to the 40 man roster, Jeter and Mo can get $6M each.

Yeah, weird.  Kennedy projects to be Chad Gaudin next year.  And worse than Chamberlain and Hughes.  Says it all: fungible.

[66] I know what’s messing this up - Granderson’s $8.25M. When I looked at there was no Granderson, but I guess it’s not even close even with him, arbitration raises, etc.

How about the projection going forward for IPK too?

Is he indirectly hurt in the 2010 projection rates by being injured this year?

FWIW, I think CAIRO is probably undervaluing Granderson as well.

I know you (SG) knows this, but I’d just like to point it out.  An article on FanGraphs a few weeks ago (don’t remember whom) about projection systems.  The concept when people look at a projection and say, “that’s wrong, player X was injured last year!”  Or, “2009 for that player was an outlier, no way he’ll do that well!”  And the problem is from a projection system, how do you pull those out?  How do you know it was an outlier, and not a talent change/breakout season?  How do you know the injury was the cause of the down year, or that said injury won’t cause problems again this year?

And of course we don’t; you have to take the numbers for what they are.  Adding in the standard deviations is nice as well, but you can’t have an objective system where you subjectively modify each player.  I just thought it was a good article b/c we often have those types of arguments.  Specifically with Granderson, we have the broken finger, thinking working with Long can help him with left-handers, and NYS being conducive to LH hitters, particularly pull hitters.

Mike K. - yes, of course.
But I didn’t mean any of those things.  I’m just surprised, given what we don know, and esp. going into age 29 and moving from Lots-Of-Cool-Cubicles-Co Park to NYS, that the projection isn’t better.  Not taking into account possible finger injuries, nor even the difference between 2009 Granderson and prior Granderson (which would certainly not suggest a decrease in power, in any event).

How about the projection going forward for IPK too?

Sure. Refresh and you should see it now.

Is he indirectly hurt in the 2010 projection rates by being injured this year?

2009 really doesn’t impact his projection much aside from playing time, but there’s little reason to think that the missed time in 2009 was anything but a fluke, so I’d probably project him to pitch more innings than a weighted average of 2006-2009 would show.

[66] Oh, but wait!

Actually, I’m right.. it’s closer than you think.

$140M committed to 9 players, assuming Igawa does not make it back onto the 40 man roster.

Hughes and Chamberlain are 1st year arbitration eligible.. how does $10M ($5M for each sound)? Obviously, this will depend on the comps, arbitration etc.

Give Melky a $2.5M salary.

Let’s say $10M for Rivera, $14M for Jeter in 2011.. for a total of $24M for the pair.

Thats for 14 players. The other 26 at the league minimum is $10.4M.

$140M + $10M + $2.5M + $24M + $10.4M = $186.9M. As you said, the threshold is $178M.  When I first looked at this, we didn’t have Granderson and his $8.5M, which would have had 2011 down to $178.8 (minus Granderson, plus Jackson at the minimum.)

Lot’s of assumptions here, yes, especially about the arbitration raises to Cabrera, Hughes and Chamberlain, and the ability of certain players to step into the breach and fill holes left by Pettite, Damon and Matsui (this is also before Kennedy was traded, obviously.)

So it was (and still is) pretty close to $178M in 2011.

[71] I’ve been sitting on that for a few days; you just gave me an opening

Sure, if $9M over is close.  And you still left out the benefits, so it’s more like $18M.

Not that this matters to anybody, but I think you’re guessing on high on Chamberlain and Hughes first year arb money and low on Cabrera.  Melky will make ~$2.5M this year, and more next year unless he gets non-tendered.  Also, the MLB minimum was $400K last year.  The CBA has a COLA escalator for 2011, so it will probably be a little higher.

But that’s all chump change.  The biggest assumption you’re making for 2011 is that they’re not going to make any long term commitments this winter.  Well, that and the whole 26 players at league minimum thing.

”  How about the projection going forward for IPK too?”

“Sure. Refresh and you should see it now.”

Why isn’t there any improvement at all in the rate stats with age?

Oh, thanks btw.

The Baseball Analysts hate Gardner. It’s as if his production in May (.955 OPS) and June (.918 OPS) didn’t happen.

Perhaps it just says more about the Yankees than the Dodgers. The Yankees currently have 4 outfielders on the 40-man roster. The first two, Curtis Granderson and Nick Swisher, are clearly going to be penciled into most Yankees line-ups in 2010. The other two outfielders would be lucky to be penciled in at all. Melky Cabrera is a glorified backup centerfielder. He simply does not have the production to justify being played in a corner outfield position. With the Granderson acquisition, Melky will be reduced to being a 2nd choice centerfielder, and a last choice corner outfielder. <u>The last outfielder, Brett Gardner is not even a good option for a 4th outfielder. How Gardner has still has a job confuses me.</u>

Hoffman would fit in well as a 4th outfielder. He can play any outfield position, and his production will likely justify his being played on a corner. He isn’t a great base stealer, but he has speed on the bases, making him a good option as a pinch runner.

So this replacement-level outfielder, the 6th choice outfielder on the Dodgers, would be the starting left fielder on the current Yankees roster. This was clearly a good choice for the yankees. It was also very bad planning on the part of the Dodgers if they had any interest in keeping Hoffman.

[78] Weird.

A 93 OPS+ with ++ defense (in CF) and ++ baserunning is nothing to sneeze at.

and I’ll also mention that projection systems are inherently limited,

Maybe.

even one as awesome as CAIRO.

Never.

“Melky will make ~$2.5M this year, and more next year unless he gets non-tendered. “

I’d be pretty shocked if Melky was on the Yanks in 2011.  He’s got trade bait written all over him.

I’d like to see the Yankees take a run at one of Washington’s DH corps. 

Melky + ???? for Willingham?

Last year we got Teixiera for Christmas. I asked Santa for Adam Dunn.. we’ll see what happens.

... this year.

I dind’t say that Melky would be on the Yankees in 2011, I said that he figures to be making more than $2.5M; that matters for purposes of the little game we were playing back there.  Now if you want to dump him and pencil in another guy making the minimum to save a few bucks, be my guest.

And the Nats have been saying that they’d have to be bowled over to trade Willingham.  For whatever that’s worth.

[78] The first commenter pretty much got it right:

Brett Gardner may never blossom into a full-time player on the Major League level, but for a dude to post a 2 WAR season with above average defense and well above average speed in only 280 plate appearances at the bargain basement rate of $400k…well, THAT’S why he still has a job.

Take it with a grain of salt, but ESPN felt it worthwhile to give a headline to “Yankees negotiating with Damon,” so that might be a good sign.

The first commenter pretty much got it right:

The counter argument that Gardner’s defense was only hlepful because it was in center seems a bit off to me - a great center field defender would still be a difference maker playing left field, no?

[87] I think the guy is just getting entrenched into his argument. Gardner is what he is.. and for what he is and what he costs, he’s a good player.

Puzzled but amused by the quote on the Greedy B-ref pg.

[87] I think that CF defense is more important than corner defense, simply because a CF is generally responsible for more ground and doesn’t have foul ground as a margin of error.

[89] I went to b-ref to check it out and discovered the sum macro they have. So I decided to use it on ARod. Did you know that per 162 games he averages 163.

Stat Padder.

[90] Even more simply, there are more balls hit to the CFer than to the other OF positions, no?

“Take it with a grain of salt, but ESPN felt it worthwhile to give a headline to “Yankees negotiating with Damon,” so that might be a good sign. “

I don’t know.  Damon probably precludes Holliday, unless he’s real cheap (~1/8) so I’m not sure I want him anymore.  With Granderson, Damon’s far less important.

The counter argument that Gardner’s defense was only helpful because it was in center seems a bit off to me

I thought he was saying that Gardner’s D was helpful in 2008 because the Yankees had a hole in CF.  With the current construction of the Yankee roster, Gardner figures to play considerably less.  With the addition of a corner OF upgrade, Gardner would figure to play even less.

It seems to me that this guy just prefers his fourth OFer to be somebody with a little pop who can fake CF in a pinch, rather than a legitimate CF glove.  Personally, I’d like a legitimate CF glove who has a little pop.

Best case scenario - Mets sign Bay (giving up only a 2nd-rounder), NYA signs Holliday, Seattle signs Beltre, San Diego keeps Gonzalez, Angles get Halladay.

... Red Sox get Randy Wynn.

a great center field defender would still be a difference maker playing left field, no?

yeah, just fewer chances to be great.

[95] - Seattle signed Chone, they don’t need Beltre.  I think best case is Bay goes to Seattle (reports say he is a BC guy and is really interested in playing close to home) and the Mets get Holliday.  A-Gone and King Felix stay put.

Reports are that Seattle isn’t high on Bay, but is still talking seriously to Beltre.
Of course, that could mean they’re going to get Bay.
In your situation, where can we stick Beltre?  For it to be the best case scenario, that is.

Reports are that Seattle isn’t high on Bay, but is still talking seriously to Beltre.

And that they would move to Figgins to 2B and Lopez to 1B.  Seems like a lot of moving parts.  Either way, I like to see Bay go to the Mets because of the protected first rounder.