right, and there are so many things we can’t know about the value of those marginal wins and the value of Alex Rodriguez to the Yankees.  we really have no idea what constitutes “overpaying”.

it’s almost impossible to ISOLATE and quantify, but the facts are that with A-Rod has come a large boost in Yankee attendance and ratings. 

Boras has laid all that out, but he’s not making it up.

for all the “star power” on the 2003 Yankees: Jeter, Giambi, Clemens, Posada, Wells, Moose, Mo, Soriano, etc., the 2004 Yankees drew 9% more fans with an inferior team and that has climbed every year.  is that all a-rod, of course not, but there is no denying the star power there.

the ratings have steadily increased with a dip in 2006, which may correspond to A-Rod’s “down year”.  this year they are way up again. 

why is that?  is it b/c love him or hate him, people WILL tune in to see him hit a huge HR or have a huge strikeout?  most of us take it for granted that we watch 150-162 games a year.  but what about the casual fans?  are they tuning in just to see A-Rod take his hacks in the 9th inning?  will they tune in to see Wilson Betemit?

the 2009 Yankees, in their new stadium, and going to PRINT money.  the luxury boxes, the decreased revenue sharing that comes with the cost of the stadium, the ticket sales, the parking, concessions, etc. etc. etc.  they are going to make a TON of money. 

it makes sense to open that stadium with the biggest star in the game.

some of that goes beyond the marginal win per $$ calculation.  and if you don’t believe in all this “extra revenue” nonsense, then surely you believe Jeter’s contract is a bad contract.  b/c i am sure from a marginal win/$$ standpoint, his contract was pretty bad this year.  yet i don’t think many people are going to be taking up that argument any time soon.

Jeter’s contract is bad and going to be worse in terms of marginal wins, but he is probably the biggest draw they have to many casual fans so I’m not sure how bad it really is.

And I agree with your larger point, there is extra revenue generated by star players that goes above and beyond marginal wins.

Aren’t there some overlaps in the choices?

For the poll I mean.

Great analysis, SG.

With the new stadium opening, and few solid options next year, it will be tough for the Yankees to walk away from ARod.  But the Yankees should definitely be prepared to walk away at a certain point, lest ARod wind up with an ownership stake in the team.

I wonder if ARod making more money than Jeter becomes a “chemistry” issue at any point, as well.

Another thought:  if the Yankees do retain ARod along with Jeter, is it possible that ARod would be approaching the career HR record at the same time Jeter would be approaching the career hits record?

Wow…am I the only one shocked that A-Rod projects this well? I mean, I’ve been saying break the bank for him the whole time, but if this production could somehow be guaranteed…I see no reason not to. In 2016 he projects to about as good as many of MLB’s lower level “star” players are now. Wow.

Another thought:  if the Yankees do retain ARod along with Jeter, is it possible that ARod would be approaching the career HR record at the same time Jeter would be approaching the career hits record?

how come no one ever mentions A-Rod as a candidate to break the hits record?  he definitiely will NOT break it, but people love to always point out that Jeter has more hits than Pete Rose did at age 33.

guess what, A-Rod is ALSO ahead of Pete Rose at age 32.

now, obviously Jeter is accumulating hits at a faster pace than A-Rod, but at the same time, Jeter is not going to be a SS forever.  when he is no longer a SS and his offense declines, are teams going to want a DH/1Bman with a 110-115ish OPS+?  probably.  but maybe not as a full-time player.

A-Rod’s bat plays just fine at either of those positions, so in theory, he should be able to play longer than Jeter.

it’s not going to happen, but i think one thing people overlook when it comes to just how damn good A-Rod is, is that he WILL be a member of the 3000 club on top of all the power numbers he is going to accumulate.  and that’s just insane.

Aren’t there some overlaps in the choices?
Yeah, probably.  I kind of whipped that together.  Just pick whatever you feel makes the most sense I guess.

Another thought:  if the Yankees do retain ARod along with Jeter, is it possible that ARod would be approaching the career HR record at the same time Jeter would be approaching the career hits record?

I’d project Jeter to be at 4204 hits at the end of 2017 (age 43) assuming good healthy and a typical aging pattern.  For Rodriguez, it depends how much longer Bonds plays as far as where the HR record ends up.  Let’s say Bonds ends up at an even 800.  Rodriguez would be at 782 in 2014 and would conceivable be shooting for the record sometime in 2016.  It’s possible I guess.

Wow…am I the only one shocked that A-Rod projects this well?

Well, I have no idea how good my projection system is so I’d be curious to see what other systems would say.  But the odds are good that if he stays healthy he will be an above average player for a while.

CAIRO is an awesome name by the way. Not only for the player but for the whole super advanced projection/super advanced ancient Egyptian society feel to it.

Anybody who has access to BP)(like, say, me) can check his 5-year PECOTA projection.

Wins above replacement: 7.4, 7, 5.7, 4.6, 3.5.

PECOTA is pretty conservative, if I understand it correctly.  That’s a pretty serious downward trend. 

By 2011, it has him hitting .276/.367/.495 with poor defense.

Incidently, I think this year’s awesomeness will impact PECOTA’s going-forward prediction a bit.  Not a huge amount, but it will bump it up.

Anyway, CAIRO has him basically being Derek Jeter (now) in 2016, which is pretty crazy.

The problem comes after that… the Yankees could be paying $30 million at age 38-40 for a player who’s just a win to a win and a half above average.

Of course, some kind of analysis of what the market will look like in 2014 has to factor into this as well.  The highest annual salary in 2000 was Kevin Brown’s $15.7M; second place was Randy Johnson’s $13.4M; there were seven players who earned over $12M.  In 2007, seven players were payed $16M or more.  Given the continued revenue growth across MLB, I’d fully expect another 25% jump at the top of the pay scale by 2014.  $25-30M per year players could be almost commonplace by the end of A-Rod’s next contract.

They should also look at the opportunity cost of signing Rodriguez and if it hampers the ability of the team to sign other players.

In a sense there’s also an opportunity cost of NOT signing Rodriguez to an extension.

If the Yankees offer Rodriguez a four year extension from 2011-2014, they’d have him through age 38 and should reasonably expect something on the order of 4.5 wins above replacement per season. We can consider those marginal wins, from the late Doug Pappas’s great research on payrolls and salaries for MLB. A marginal win has a different value for every team, and they also have different values depending on how close a team is to making the playoffs which increases exposure and revenue.

And that’s the question the Yankees have to answer, and one we can’t answer. How much is a marginal win worth to the Yankees?. If it’s $2 million, they shouldn’t pay Rodriguez more than $9 million a year for ages 35-38. If it’s $5 million, they can afford to pay him $25 million a year, etc., Once they know that, then they have the amount they should pay Alex Rodriguez. If he wants more than he is worth, then it doesn’t make good business sense to sign him.

Not quite. If this were just a normal contract extension, that logic would apply (along with the rejoinders about ARod’s star power). But this is a unique situation. The Yankees lose ARod’s services for 2008-2010 if he doesn’t accept the extension offered and opts out. Thus, any marginal win/salary computation needs to take 2008-2010 into account along with the extension years. One might pay more per year in the offered extension years if we anticipate getting more value (in terms of marginal wins, for one) in 2008-2010 (due to Texas subsidy and existing salary).

“as someone who appears to be a Hall of Fame-caliber talent”
Careful not to go out on a limb there, SG.

I’ve also been advocating for the “give him what he wants” stance, based on baseball reasons; I do think it’s easy to overestimate how much effect ARod’s star power impacts the Yankees’ finances.  I imagine that, ARod, or no, the new stadium is going to be sold out every game for the next 10 years and maybe forever.  I expect that TV ratings will be through the roof.  Let’s not forget that, as young players’ salaries escalate, so does their starpower and corresponding relationship to the box office.  It is possible that in 3 years
Cano, Joba, and Hughes will be three of the biggest stars in MLB.  (Okay, I doubt it with Cano.)  It is also practically certan that sometime over the next 3 years the Yankees will sign some flashy FA, Santana or not.

In baseball terms, I view this quite simply.  The money for ARod, Mo and Po is all there.  There is no surer way to help your team make the playoffs than to have ARod on it, for about the next 5 years. The years after that we overpay. 

How many FA contracts do NOT involve overpaying at the back end?  Offhand, I can think of one: the current contract of Alexander Emmanuel Rodriguez.

In 2007, seven players were payed $16M or more.  Given the continued revenue growth across MLB, I’d fully expect another 25% jump at the top of the pay scale by 2014.  $25-30M per year players could be almost commonplace by the end of A-Rod’s next contract

this is a good point.

and i think that number is only so low b/c some of these new contracts are backloaded.  just off the top of my head, players in the $16-20M range:

Manny
Jeter
A-Rod
Giambi
Clemens
Zito
Wells
Soriano
Carlos Lee
Carlos Zambrano
Matsuzaka (not his salary, but it indicates the willingness to spend $17M/year)
Pettitte
Beltran
Ichiro
Helton

there has been a definite shift over the last 2 years.  “stars” are now getting that $17-18M (Soriano, Wells, Zambrano) instead of the $12-14M (Vlad, Tejada, Ortiz) they were getting 2-3 years ago.  lower level stars (Pierre, Gary Matthews, Lilly) are now getting $10-11M instead of the $7-8M (Loaiza, Lieber, Weaver) they were getting a few years ago.

Really interesting stuff here, thanks SG.  Regarding the YES ratings, in 2006 the Yanks pretty much wrapped up the division with the 5 game sweep in Boston in mid-August, whereas 2005 & 2007 had them playing for a playoff spot right up until the end of the season (the next to last day in 2005).

I think the other part (which we don’t know) is what does A-Rod want?  I mean, obviously he is getting even more crazy $ either way, but I think that part of it is the most intersting part.  Does he really want to be here (assuming comparable money)?

if the Yankees do retain ARod along with Jeter, is it possible that ARod would be approaching the career HR record at the same time Jeter would be approaching the career hits record?

That certainly would be sweet.  But I’m not sure Jeter’s got much of a shot at this point.  It would be even cooler if A-Rod’s 4,257th hit was also his 793rd HR (or whatever the record will be), but that’s certainly not going to happen.  My prediction for A-Rod’s “double milestone”—hit #3,000 is HR #661.

Great analysis, SG. I was just thinking that I’d like to read an analysis of this type.

“Wow…am I the only one shocked that A-Rod projects this well?”

I was surprised as well. I wasn’t so surprised that he will do well over the next few seasons, but how slow the decline was.

How does your system work, SG? I understand if you don’t want to explain in detail, or even at all. I’m just curious. Have you done any comparisons between yours and some other projection systems?

i think that number is only so low b/c some of these new contracts are backloaded

Yes.  I quoted are current year salaries, not AAV’s.

In 2007, seven players were payed $16M or more.  Given the continued revenue growth across MLB, I’d fully expect another 25% jump at the top of the pay scale by 2014.  $25-30M per year players could be almost commonplace by the end of A-Rod’s next contract

this is a good point.

It’s a great point. 

Thus, any marginal win/salary computation needs to take 2008-2010 into account along with the extension years. One might pay more per year in the offered extension years if we anticipate getting more value (in terms of marginal wins, for one) in 2008-2010 (due to Texas subsidy and existing salary).

This is another great point.

So let’s say the Yankees give Rodriguez a 5 year, $150 million extension.  That would mean they would get Rodriguez for the next 8 years at a cost to them of $170 million (assuming Texas pays $29 million of the $81 million remaining on his contract).  So they’d get a projected 37 wins above replacement for the next 8 years at a cost of around $4.5 million a year.  Seems like a good match.

this is a good point.

It’s a great point.

Why thank you, kind sirs.

How does your system work, SG? I understand if you don�t want to explain in detail, or even at all. I�m just curious.

I’m still working on it, but right now here’s what I do.

1) Park-adjust the component stats for each season from 2003-2007
2) Weigh each season using a 5/4/3/2/1 weight (most recent season weighed most heavily)
3) Add in a percentage of plate appearances based on league average performance (regression towards the mean)
4) Adjust the appropriate components for the players’ age (hits, xbh, HR, BB, K, SB)
5) Park-adjust the final stat line for the player’s expected park

Have you done any comparisons between yours and some other projection systems?

Nah, I’m pretty sure that the other projection systems are better but I am hoping to use the offseason to refine mine plus now I don’t have to wait for the other projections to come out.  It’s basically Tango Tiger’s Marcel system but I use 5 years of data instead of 3, I make park and league adjustments, and I am planning to add in minor league data.

And of course, while the point may be good or even great, the math sucks.  16 is 33% more than 12, not 25% more.

<u>C</u>alculated
<u>A</u>verage
<u>I</u>ncremental
<u>R</u>eplacement
<u>O</u>verage

Nah, I got nothin’.

Calculated
Anticipated
Inferred
Realistic
Overall performance

I got even more nothin’ than MC.

I have these:

<u>C</u>alculated
<u>A</u>lgorithm
<u>I</u>
<u>R</u>egression
<u>O</u>

A marginal win for The Yankees is worth more starting next year since the new Stadium arrives in 2009 and presales are already underway.  Furthermore, despite the claim that the mets don’t matter because they’re in another league, they in fact do matter in that their poor performance and general unlikeability in 2007 (an hopefully for some years) render a lot of potential revenue up for grabs.  I would also argue that the value of a marginal win is higher when the team is composed of players like Arod (and moreso Posada, Rivera, etc.) who has been here for some time and built up a reasonable amount of equity and fan loyalty.  Basically AROd in 2008 is more valuable than ARod in 2004 given the same relative performance.  Finally, one must consider the economic environment in the US- if I recall the peak in salries occurred around 2000 and then the market came in for a couple years whenthe economy slowed in the US.  Manny’s $18M contract looked ridiculous in 2002 when Mariano, Sheffield was getting $9M until 2004 when Vlad got $11M…but now it’s finally starting to look reasonable again.

I for implying, including, or “in terms of”? 

(You could also have a small ‘i’ or ‘o’ in there, you know.)

anyone else think that arod will be resigned (along with possibly Mo and Posada) before it’s announced that Torre is fired?  to soften the blow.

C - Capital
A - Analysis
I - Inculding
R - Regression Analysis and
O - Objectivism

Ack!  I meant to just go with Regression for R.  No need to repeat analysis.

Will Mariano and Posada sign before they know who is managing the team in 2008?  I, for one, would consider that unlikely.

I’m jonesing for the Yankees.  I don’t like football, basketball or hockey.  I’m in Yankee withdrawal.  Anyone know where I can get some pinstripe Methadone?

Do you think the manager has that big an impact on whether Mo or Jorge resign?  While I’m sure they do care who the next manager is, I’m somewhat surprised by all the discussion that if the Yanks don’t bring back Torre a bunch of the free agents will bolt.  Particularly if the new manager is one of the more likely candidates like Mattingly or Girardi.  If it’s LaRusa I could see the bat boys leaving too. 

How about:

Career
Advancement
Index
Relational
Omen

I think there might be a better R word… I dunno…  but I kinda like Omen

Implementing, outcome/outlook.

Still interested in that variance analysis some day when you’re bored.

So let’s say the Yankees give Rodriguez a 5 year, $150 million extension.  That would mean they would get Rodriguez for the next 8 years at a cost to them of $170 million (assuming Texas pays $29 million of the $81 million remaining on his contract).  So they’d get a projected 37 wins above replacement for the next 8 years at a cost of around $4.5 million a year.  Seems like a good match.

Isn’t that $202M for 8 years? Or $5.5M marginal cost per year?

If it’s LaRussa even I might consider signing with another team, and I’ve been a Yankee about 20 years longer than Mo or Posado.

Well, of course I wouldn’t, no more than I refused to root for Clemens in ‘99.  But I dislike LaRussa as a tactician and a personality.

Actually, it is often said that you don’t want to be the manager after Joe Torre, you want to be the manager after Joe Torre.  I predict that if LaRussa, or Valentine (whom I don’t dislike as a tactician, btw), or some other veteran were brought in, he or she (oh wait, just he) would be on a fairly short leash.  It’s easy to imagine LaRussa clashing with management (i.e. George) a bit, having the team lose in the playoffs, and then getting fired after one year.  Then Mattingly or (I’d prefer) Girardi would have a longer tenure.

I hope The Yanks bring back Torre and put Waldman as his bench coach just so I don’t have to listen to her anymore.

Still interested in that variance analysis some day when you’re bored.

Yep, I’ll try to tackle that shortly.

Isn’t that $202M for 8 years? Or $5.5M marginal cost per year?

Oops, yes.  I have to stop doing math in my head.

I liked Bobby V.  Then again, I liked him from afar.

Just say no to TLR.

Bebop..re the pinstripe withdrawl, I find myself missing even Guisseppe Franco and the Fios kid. FROG .. LaRussa in pinstripes…I’m a pretty strong guy but I don’t think I could take it.

Calculated
Algorithm
I Regression
O

I think <u>I</u>nvolving would work for the I, but I can’t come up with an O that works yet…

Those who are in baseball/Yankees withdrawal can follow the team’s prospects in the Arizona Fall League (i.e. Gardner, Juan Miranda and Reegie Corona) and the Hawaii Winter Baseball League (Austin Jackson, Brad Suttle, Anthony Claggett et al).  It’s a shabby substitute, to be sure, but potentially interesting sometimes.  After all, before Joba arrived in New York this August, I remember him absolutely dominating in Hawaii the previous winter.

I like Outlook for O (thanks rilkefan).

Mike and the Mad Dog just reported rumblings from Mariano. Part of which includes Torre being back.

MSG: Rivera wants Torre back, will factor manager into decision whether to return to Yankees.

NEW YORK (AP) - Mariano Rivera isn’t happy that Joe Torre might be out as manager of the New York Yankees and said the team’s decision will be factored into whether he returns.

“I don’t feel good about it,” Rivera said Wednesday, two days after the Yankees were eliminated from the playoffs. “I don’t see why they’re even thinking (about letting Torre go). I wish he’s back, definitely. If you ask me what I would want, I want him back.”

I can’t fault Mo for wanting the Yankees to keep Torre.  I haven’t really thought about if Torre should be let go or not.  There are fair arguments for and against it I think.

You know what is hilarious? Anyone believing that there will never be another steep economic recession and that revenue will never stop growing. History teaches us otherwise. In fact, with the housing bubble bursting all around, the tip-of-the-iceberg is only in sight with credit problems.

Caveat emptor.

I hope The Yanks bring back Torre and put Waldman as his bench coach just so I don’t have to listen to her anymore.

Brilliant!

And Jonathan Bradford Sterling as permanent batboy.

Calculated
Algorithm
I?
Regression
O?

I = Interpolation?  Idiot-proof? 

O = Output?  How about FOrecast?

How about:

Calculated Algorithm In Regard to future Output?  Eh?  Ehhh?

Mo and Posado are just just posturing for Torre about this, using what little leverage they can for their friend/mentor.  It’s good negotiating strategy because at the same time it sends signals that they themselves are willing to play elsewhere. I’ll bet (as some have posted here earlier) that both would come back to play for Girardi, perhaps Mattingly too, provided the money is right.

Calculating
Arod
Investment
Re:
Opt-out

I just heard it on the radio. Rivera said, “The yankees had their opportunity and they did nothing with it” referring to their opportunity to sign him to a contract extension back in spring. Clearly Rivera is very upset about Torre leaving plus them not doing anything to give him a well-deserved extension. If bringing Torre = bringing Rivera back, then I want Torre back. Give him his $7 mil. We CANNOT afford to lose Rivera. I’d rather lose A-Rod than Rivera.

“If you ask me what I would want, I want him back.”

Mo, re: Torre

Mariano publicly going to bat for Joe more than Jeter has.  Of course, Mariano is a free agent…

Isn’t that $202M for 8 years?

We know “8 is enough” for Dick Van Patten, but will it be enough for Boras and ARod?  I’m thinking they’ll be looking for more like a 10 year total commitment, at least…

If giving Torre a one year contract increases the probability of retaining Mo, Jorge and Petitte that’s what I’d do and adopt a wait and see posture for next October.  The only reason not to retain Torre would be if management thinks Gerardi is the clearly the most qualified manager out there and they don’t want to lose him to another team.

You know what is hilarious? Anyone believing that there will never be another steep economic recession and that revenue will never stop growing. History teaches us otherwise. In fact, with the housing bubble bursting all around, the tip-of-the-iceberg is only in sight with credit problems.

You know what’s even more hilarious?  Thinking that anybody here is talking about the general economy.  When was the last time that MLB salaries actually declined?

C - Computed
A - Ability
I - Index
R - Regression
O - Ordinal

Anyone believing that there will never be another steep economic recession and that revenue will never stop growing. History teaches us otherwise. In fact, with the housing bubble bursting all around, the tip-of-the-iceberg is only in sight with credit problems.

this is a good point.

You know what is hilarious? Anyone believing that there will never be another steep economic recession and that revenue will never stop growing. History teaches us otherwise. In fact, with the housing bubble bursting all around, the tip-of-the-iceberg is only in sight with credit problems.

You know what’s even more hilarious?  Thinking that anybody here is talking about the general economy.  When was the last time that MLB salaries actually declined?

Good question. I’d be very interested to see average MLB salary data (normalized to 2007 dollars) for the last 50 years. Baseball has been very successful in terms of revenue growth over the past 30 years or so (the free agency era), but it does get me wondering if the relatively new (or recently enhanced) revenue streams (cable TV, online, merchandising) may level off at some point. The general economy probably has less of an impact on baseball revenues than one might think. Was attendance/revenue down during the depression?

We CANNOT afford to lose Rivera. I’d rather lose A-Rod than Rivera.

Mariano is probably my favorite yankee ever, but this is crazy.

the Yankees could afford to lose Rivera a lot easier than they can afford to lose A-Rod.  sorry, but it’s true.

i am strictly in the Joba to the rotation camp, but were Mo to leave, the Yankees WOULD have his replacement sitting right there. 

there is NO replacement for A-Rod walking through that door.  not even close.

Mariano will be 38 next year and he had stretches this year when he was legitimately hittable.  you are thinking with your heart and not your head, which is ok, but know that it would lead to fewer yankee wins next year.

Mo is a great guy, but the audio of him with reports today on LoHud is worthless. And thank the reporters for that. How many times can these idiots ask the same question about Torre? Or about him being a free agent?

How about these questions:
-Where was that change up we saw in spring training?
-Do you have a future as a pitching coach?
-You fixed Vizcaino, what did you tell him?
-Fix Farnsworth please. Please?!

You know what’s even more hilarious?  Thinking that anybody here is talking about the general economy.  When was the last time that MLB salaries actually declined?

i’m pretty sure he was referring to the general salary stagnation of 2002-2003 that occurred after the last wave of insanity in 2000-2001.

salaries definitely pulled back a bit in 2003.

also, i find it kindof amusing that some of you think the owner of the team should have to re-hire a manager he doesn’t want to b/c Mariano Rivera is threatening to leave if he doesn’t. 

what if A-Rod came out and said “move me back to SS or i’m leaving”?

most yankee fans would rip him to shreds for that type of demand/threat.  yet everyone wants to let Posada and Mariano demand that Torre come back. 

and i love Mo, but he needs to stop crying about not getting his extension last winter.  he’s the highest paid reliever of all time.  he has probably made more money per inning than any other pitcher in history.  and yet he is complaining that he didn’t get a new contract while he was still under a very generous contract for another season?

that $85M the Yankees have paid Mariano has been so disrespectful.

Calculated
And
Inferred
Replacement
Overage

I haven’t done a study on it but the 2000/2001 vintage contracts for big stars seem to be out of whack with similar contracts signed between 2002-2004.  There may be other reasons such as position scarcity and, perhaps most importantly, an impending CBA negotiation…

On another note, I’ve had the family in town cooing over my baby daughter for the past few days, so I’m a little out of touch.  How does everybody like the Yankees chances against the Red Sox?  I say Yanks in six.

the Yankees could afford to lose Rivera a lot easier than they can afford to lose A-Rod.

I’m not so sure.  The Yankees biggest need, in a general sense, is pitching.  Good pitching.  That’s what’s been lacking since 2003.  To lose Mariano would be taking away one of the greatest strengths from the team’s area of greatest need.  I think you’re underestimating the impact of a potential Mo departure.

I think it would be interesting to compare how salaries have risen when compared to the rise in revenue.  Of course, it’s hard to analyze baseball revenues since the owners don’t open their books for public analysis/scrutiny.  Each franchise has different revenue streams, or treat money made/lost in certain areas differently.

I guess as long as the revenue streams are growing, so will the money available for player payroll.  However, it really does depend on the ownership.  Will they pay to better their team, or let a franchise die on the vine (ala Angelos and the Orioles).

It looks like most teams are not willing to sign free agents to long contracts, even though they’re offering more money per year.  This makes sense considering that many of the good and great players are reaching free agency at an older age.  Indians are a good case study on locking up young players early.

When it comes to the A-Rod contract, Yankees will have plenty to think about - including future revenue streams from the new ballpark, CBA and how the franchise will change hands when Steinbrenner passes away (assuming he doesn’t sell it first).  That’s on top of A-Rod’s expected performance on the field.

To lose Mariano would be taking away one of the greatest strengths from the team’s area of greatest need.  I think you’re underestimating the impact of a potential Mo departure.

and i think you are overestimating it. 

the Yankees just got knocked out of the playoffs by a team with a closer with an ERA over 5.

Mo is 38 and coming off his worst season since 1995.

take away A-Rod and guess what just became the Yankees biggest need?  POWER. 

the yankees biggest need is not pitching from an organizational perspective.  they have more pitching in their system than any other team in the majors.

the Yankees SHOULD be able to find another closer (and i am not suggesting that person will be as good as Mo) from within their system in the near future.

what they will not be able to find is another guy who plays on the left side of the infield and AVERAGES .306/.389/.578, 44 HRs, and 128 RBIs and plays 155 games a year.

honestly, if you really think a closer, even one as good as Mariano has been, is as valuable as an inner circle Hall of Fame 3Bman who NEVER misses a game, i really don’t know what to say.  it’s insane.

Yup, I disagree. As it is now, the yankees have very weak bullpen. Take away Rivera and Joba - assuming he is moved to the rotation - and the bullpen has become atrocious. Look at the teams in the ALCS right now (or even the NLCS) You know what is one thing they all have in common? Lights out bullpens (aside from Gagme of course).

We’ve been taking for granted what Rivera has brought to the team all these years. We cannot let him walk. I will say it again. If rehiring Torre means bringing Rivera back, we must do so.

I also want to clarify something. I did not want to mislead anyone into thinking that we have to choose between letting A-Rod walk and letting Rivera walk. If the yankees management to the right thing we can have both back.

There really is an overwrought quality to the post-mortem playing itself out in the MSM.  Is this what it was like the previous 3 -4 years after elimination?  (I haven’t lived in New York in several years and try hard not to consume the New York media).  Klapisch was on the Dan Patrick show last night and they were throwing around language like “winter of doom and discontent” and talking about mass exoduses of superstars.

And there was more craziness from Klapisch in the paper today, implying that the Plan B should Alex bolt is offering Hughes/Cano/prospects for Johan Santana.  As if Johan can play third base

I have no idea what Alex Rodriguez is going to do in 2014, and with all due respect neither does CAIRO.  But as someone pointed out, every big contract involves overpaying on the back end.  I guess I don’t understand the mentality of someone who’s the absolute best at what he does – I’m not even the best B-man I can be – but I can’t understand what the difference is between making $28 million or $35 million.  If he loves it in New York and wants to win a championship there, then let’s put the name on the piece of paper and start revving up for February in Tampa.

I know, sounds naïve.  But I second Nate’s comments in the previous thread:

I think A-Rod stays for the extension.  Why?  Because if he doesn’t, he’ll be a tremendous douche. …

A-Rod needs to decide what is worth more: his legacy or his contract?  He can make $400MM over the course of his career and go down as the greatest ballplayer ever, a Yankee legend, with a fistful of rings.  Or he can make $500MM and be a douche.

IE calls this sanctimonious, but it is what it is.  It seems leaving New York would be terribly damaging to Alex the brand, as it would confirm everyone’s worst suspicion of him – the quirkiness, the emotional instability, etc.

I can’t imagine the actual budget is an issue when it comes to Posada and Mo.  Without negotiating against himself, I can’t imagine Cashman losing a Yankee legend over a few million dollars.  Though Pudge’s option being picked up at $13m doesn’t help here.  3 years at $45-50m would be steep, but I think that would get it done with Jorge. 

I’d still like to spark a discussion about the bullpen, which is easily the #1 Achilles heel even with Mariano.  Fer chrissakes who gives a rip who plays first base?  With Phillips and Minky starting (I’m guessing) more than half the games there, we still scored 949 runs.  Now we’re talking about taking 1 of the 2 relievers who can be trusted with a 5-run post-season lead and putting him in the rotation.  Is anyone here satisfied going into the season with Farns, Edwar, Ohlendorf, etc. behind Mo?  If not, any suggestions?

and i love Mo, but he needs to stop crying about not getting his extension last winter.  he’s the highest paid reliever of all time.  he has probably made more money per inning than any other pitcher in history.  and yet he is complaining that he didn’t get a new contract while he was still under a very generous contract for another season?

Darren Dreifort and Mike Hampton and Carl Pavano scoff at Mo’s $/ip.

The rest of your points are completely correct though.  Anyone who thinks Mo is more valuable, to any team, than A-Rod is either ignorant or delusional.  Mo is the best closer and second best reliever of all time and there is still no comparison between the value he brings and the value A-Rod brings.

Darren Dreifort and Mike Hampton and Carl Pavano scoff at Mo’s $/ip.

i understand your point, but Mo still leads all 3 of these guys by a fair margin.

fgasparini—Excellent question.  I think our chances depend on what Torre’s willing to do with the rotation.  After Hughes’ total domination as emergency starter for Clemens on Sunday, I’m thinking he should start game 1.  We go Hughes-Wang-Pettitte-Hughes-Wang-Pettitte, 3 starters who are simply on fire, I think we should manage it in 6, sure.  Especially with the way Jeter and Matsui have been hitting lately.

But, you know, playoff series are crapshoots.

Yup, I disagree. As it is now, the yankees have very weak bullpen. Take away Rivera and Joba - assuming he is moved to the rotation - and the bullpen has become atrocious

in no way am i trying to imply that it would be EASY to replace Mo.

just that it would be easiER to replace him than A-Rod.

and how much longer do you guys really think Mo is going to pitch at this level?  is it not a little inconsistant that the point of this thread was to try to quantify the dangers of overpaying A-Rod 6 years from now, when he won’t even be as old as Mariano will be next year????

make up your mind, either we are worried about overpaying for someone in their late 30’s or we aren’t.  and this is coming off a season where A-Rod was as good as he has ever been and Mo having the worst season of his career.

which player looks like the better bet in 2008?  how about 2009???

“We go Hughes-Wang-Pettitte”

Frog, I like your thinking.  The only thing I’d add is that we should add Kennedy to the roster to shadow Wang.  I just have a feeling he may be unreliable under the pressure of a big playoff series in Boston.

yup, don’t blind them with logic. It’s way too unfair of you to inject that into this discussion.

honestly, if you really think a closer, even one as good as Mariano has been, is as valuable as an inner circle Hall of Fame 3Bman who NEVER misses a game, i really don’t know what to say.  it’s insane.

I never said Mariano is as valuable as ARod per se, just that he’d be very near as difficult to replace in an area - pitching - of considerable need for the Yankees. 

Look over the last seven years.  The Yankees have always found a way to field a team that scores lots of runs.  But the pitchers: Cone, Clemens, Pettitte, El Duque, Wells, Key, Nelson, Stanton, Mendoza - the guys who helped get the Yankees over the top to win championships - have been very difficult to replace.

I’m not sure I follow the thought process of how A-Rod stands to damage his legacy, or his “brand”.  What exactly is he known for as a member of the Yankees?

- Choker
- Fans hate him
- Fans and media blame him for everything
- Cheats on wife
- Demoted to 3rd base because Jeter is so superior to him defensively
- Curse

THAT’s the “legacy” that he would be crazy to walk away from?  Really?

“Batting 3rd for the Chicago Cubs, the shortstop and Captain, Alex Rodriguez!”

i’m pretty sure he was referring to the general salary stagnation of 2002-2003 that occurred after the last wave of insanity in 2000-2001.

salaries definitely pulled back a bit in 2003.

MLB salaries declined by 3% in 2003.  That was the first and only drop since 1995.  The overall long-term trend is inexorably upward.  The point I was making dealt with the out years of a contract of seven or more years.  The possibility of a one or two year stagnation or retrenchment, while very real, is almost completely irrelevant in that context.

fgasparini:  Agreed.  Let’s also keep Villone; it was cool the way he came on to K Hafner in the 12th the other night.

“But the pitchers: Cone, Clemens, Pettitte, El Duque, Wells, Key, Nelson, Stanton, Mendoza - the guys who helped get the Yankees over the top to win championships - have been very difficult to replace.”

That is true.  Goldman had an article on this a while ago—I’m talking like a year ago.  Basically he commented that the Yanks had had amazing luck in getting all that great pitching, particularly in that they robbed Toronto twice for Cone and Clemens.  And these days every front office in baseball suddenly seems so hyper-over-aware of not getting rooked, especially for pitching and ESPECIALLY for young pitching, that free agent pitchers are way overvalued and trades are very difficult to pull off.

And I’ll be clear—I think we should re-sign Mariano, he’s still good, and why shouldn’t the Yankees overpay?  They can afford it.

But if they don’t, or if he leaves in a fit of pique because Torre gets fired, it won’t be the end of the world.

The Yankees are stocked with pitching now.  Some of the youngsters, we discovered this year, aren’t that good.  Some will probably get better.  And there are still exciting prospects who haven’t yet pitched in the bigs.

Mariano’s 37.  His ERA+ and WHIP, while still good, were his worst since he was a starter.  He’s not going to get better as he ages. 

Was it Branch Rickey who said it’s better to let a player go a year too early than a year too late?

Crappy
A-Rod
Is
Ridiculously
Overrated

or

Clutch
A-Rod
Is
Really
Owesome

Not sure about that last one.

the Yankees just got knocked out of the playoffs by a team with a closer with an ERA over 5

A trivial statistic that only serves to distract from the fact that Cleveland has a MUCH better bullpen than New York.  And a couple of pretty fair starters, too.

Darren Dreifort and Mike Hampton and Carl Pavano scoff at Mo’s $/ip.

i understand your point, but Mo still leads all 3 of these guys by a fair margin.

Career, sure.  But you have to admit that those three have some pretty impressive “peaks”.

Was it Branch Rickey who said it’s better to let a player go a year too early than a year too late?

Yes it was.  OTOH, Branch never had to deal with a system that forces teams to choose between letting a star player go four years too early rather than three years too late.

As if Johan can play third base

A-Rod can pitch for that team.

This whole opt-out scenario is really quite interesting.  Both sides have a lot to lose, both in terms of money, production, as well as stature (this is mostly on Boras’ side though).  It seems like it all boils down to who wins the game of chicken in regards to the Yankees not bidding after an opt-out.  It seems like without the Yankees in the bidding, there is no way A-Rod could get more money after an opt-out than before.  But, what happens if he does opt-out, and then highest some other team offers him is lower than the Yankees’ extension offer (even minus the Texas money)?  Does Cashman jump in?  Will he be forced to?  Imagine if the Angels sign ARod at below Yankee-offer.  What kind of uproar happens?  Boras seems to have a lot to lose to by gambling on the opt-out, especially if he thinks the yankees will keep their word on not entering the bidding.  Oh well, we’ll see what happens.  Whatever it is will be interesting.

“Yes it was.  OTOH, Branch never had to deal with a system that forces teams to choose between letting a star player go four years too early rather than three years too late.”

I guess so, but I was applying it specifically to the case of Mariano Rivera.

Wow- I’m surprised how much Rivera tailed off this year.  Of course he did well in the playoffs.  And tehn I looked at his career playoff #‘s which are obscene-.77ERA and .75 WHIP against excellent hitters (those on playoff teams). I guess there is such thing as clutch- moreso with pitchers who control their own destiny than with hitters.

Cleveland did have a much better bullpen.  Going into the last off-season it was their number one priority, and they made a bunch of shrewd guesses that paid off.  But who among us looked at Fultz, Perez, Lewis, and Betancourt, and said “that’s going to be a deadly bullpen”?  Short relievers get hot and cold, and most have brief careers.  It’s one of the most unpredictable aspects of the game.  Some team always turns a piece of crap into a 40 save guy, and two years later he’s driving a truck.  This makes Mo unique and extraordinary in retrospect, and more replaceable than we’d like to admit going forward.

Calibrated
Analytic
Inferrential
Rate
Ordinator

At least it’s grammatical.

“Short relievers get hot and cold, and most have brief careers.  It’s one of the most unpredictable aspects of the game.  Some team always turns a piece of crap into a 40 save guy, and two years later he’s driving a truck.  This makes Mo unique and extraordinary in retrospect, and more replaceable than we’d like to admit going forward.”

Very precisely put, Ed.

“the Yankees just got knocked out of the playoffs by a team with a closer with an ERA over 5

A trivial statistic that only serves to distract from the fact that Cleveland has a MUCH better bullpen than New York.  And a couple of pretty fair starters, too. “

It’s not trivial at all. Cleveland has great middle relief but won’t waste them as a closer. While the Yankees need better middle relief, you can basically have anyone “closed” a game. I want Rivera back, but he’s much easier to replace than the MVP.

Colter Bean has been released. A moment of silence, please.

Ed.. I take umbrage at your casual disrespect of the fine profession of truck driving. Does anyone here want to be on the road with someone like farnsworth or Manny R. or Tanyon Sturtze behind thewheel of a Freightliner?

Comparative
Algorithm (for)
Imputing
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Outlook

Tanyon Sturtze behind thewheel of a Freightliner

Sturtze isn’t a truck driver?  I figured that’s what he was.  He certainly wasn’t a pitcher.

Re: Mo and Torre.  You don’t want your players choosing their manager.  You want the manager choosing the players (or, at least having a solid input).  If the Yankees cave to that, what happens next year?

“Mr. Santana, what would it take to get you to the Yankees?”

“5 yrs/80 million.  And Milton Bradley as the pitching coach.”

If I’m running the Yanks, here are my top priorities:

1.  Joe Torre - does he stay or go. If it were me, I give him two more years, enough so his last year is in the new stadium. 

2.  A-Rod - offer him a reasonable extension (10 years with a 30 million avg.) before the opt-out clause.  I agree with Cashman: if he opts-out, the Yanks are out of the bidding.  I don’t think it will come to that because I don’t see any other team ponying up the money to sign A-Rod to a 10+ year deal.

3.  Posada - resign for two years, plus a mutual player/team option for third year

4.  Mo - resign for two years

5.  Scour free agency for BP help.  Attempt to trade Farnsworth.

6.  Listen to any offers for Damon or Giambi.  Probably nothing for the latter, maybe a bite or two for the former.  Take what I can get for either.

Mike K - brought that up in the previous thread.  Yanks are treading in some dangerous waters if veteran players start making the calls.  In fact, I think the louder guys like Mo get, the more likely the Yanks won’t bring back Torre.

I’m starting to think Torre is popular because he doesn’t push his veteran players.  Maybe that’s not a good thing when they aren’t winning.

2.  A-Rod - offer him a reasonable extension (10 years with a 30 million avg.) before the opt-out clause.  I agree with Cashman: if he opts-out, the Yanks are out of the bidding.

wait, you want the yankees to give A-Rod $300M, but the $20-30M from Texas is some sort of deal breaker?  what’s the difference at that point?

I’m for keeping A-Rod, generally speaking, and I agree that the main problem for the Yankees in recent years has been inferior pitching once the post-season arrives. I think it would be a major mistake to not put Joba in the rotation, mainly because he seems to have the stuff and the attitude to potentially be a shutdown-type pitcher. And while the bullpen is a big question mark, the Yankees appear to have some young pitchers with hard stuff who might be able to give them a better pen than they’ve had - wouldn’t take -that- much. But the dearth of position players in the upper levels of the system combined with the lack of front-line players available via free agency seems to me to make it extremely risky not to re-sign A-Rod (and Posada for that matter).

Separately, I have to say that as disappointing as the Cleveland series was, I thought the regular season was extremely enjoyable - I’m one of the folks who lived and died with the ‘79 - ‘95 Yanks (literally started being a fan in 1979 at age 7), and I remember all those mid-eighties years that typically ended in august with a screaming owner, angry players, fired coaches, and demoralized fans. Then manager a, b, or c would be recycled. It sucked. The mentality of win-the-series-or-the-season-is-a-failure is, IMHO, nuts (not to mention a fruitless exercise in narcissism).