so your telling me theres a chance….

and that’s just to get to Friday.

what are the odds that the Yankees would then win 3 at Fenway and the 1 game playoff?

what are the odds that the Yankees would then win 3 at Fenway and the 1 game playoff?

Not good.

Not good.

did you carry the one?

did you carry the one?

Yeah.  Didn’t help.

The odds of the Yankees taking four straight from Boston in Fenway are 1.5%.  So overall odds of the Yankees snagging the wild card are…..

0.0075%, or 1 out of 133,333.

“Never tell me the odds.”
-Han Solo

The odds of the Yankees taking four straight from Boston in Fenway are 1.5%

ahh, but there is only a 50% chance (coin flip) that the tie breaker would be in Fenway, right?

that has got to shoot their chances all the way up to 1 in 125,000 or so.

0.0075%, or 1 out of 133,333.

.0075% comes out to 1 out of 13,333.  I’m much more optimistic now.

If the Yankees go Colorado Rockies on the rest of the season, and win the wild card their odds of winning the WS are something like 1 in 8 or .125.  Maybe a little better.  Lets guess that its .133333 just to make the math easier.  That would make the odds of winning the World Series 1 in 100,000.

.0075% comes out to 1 out of 13,333.  I’m much more optimistic now.

You’re right, my bad.

The odds wouldn’t be so bad if the Yanks didn’t have to face Burnett AND Halladay YET AGAIN!!  Arrrgh, how do they ALWAYS manage to line up against us?!

Is this what we Yankee fans have seriously resorted to…?

“Never tell me the odds.”
-Han Solo

greatest ever…

The odds wouldn’t be so bad if the Yanks didn’t have to face Burnett AND Halladay YET AGAIN!!  Arrrgh, how do they ALWAYS manage to line up against us?!

6th time they’ve seen Halladay.  how often does that happen?

6th time they’ve seen Halladay.  how often does that happen?

Also 5th time they’ll see Burnett.

Maybe SG can run the odds of facing the same 2 pitchers in all 6 series they play against a team.

Also, this photo of Moose is priceless.

Also, this photo of Moose is priceless.

no photo there…?

Crap.

correct link to hilarious Moose photo.

i am glad that moose seems like he’s going to make it really easy for the yankees to bring him back if they want to.

they should bring him back, but i was wary of giving him 2 years which i thought he could easily get on the open market.

it sounds like he’s not interested in testing the market. 

1 year, $11M.  make it happen.

i doubt he’ll be as good as he was this year, but it sure would be good to go into the FA signing period with another relative certainty lined up.

Burnett and Halladay have started 21.1% and 20.5% of the Blue Jays’ games this year, so over 19 games you’d expect to face them around 4 times apiece.  6 times each seems like a lot, but it’s clearly being done on purpose because third place is just so darn special to J.P.

I have a few things to say about J.P., some of which might get me arrested in some states.  So I will refrain.

Paging Mister Slim, Paging Mister Slim, you have a call from Mister None please report to the Yankees dugout.

I live in Chicago, but I still can’t believe I’m resorting to hopping on the Cubs bandwagon in order to enjoy some baseball this fall.

“Do you believe in unliklihoods??”

—Cotton McKnight “Dodgeball”

Here’s the thing where it gets interesting: how do the Yankees play it for the next three games?  Tonight I think they should go with their “A” lineup to get Moose the win, that’s not in question.  But what if they win and Boston loses again?  Don’t they “have” to go with their “A” lineup again tomorrow?  And Thursday if this continues?

I know we want to see “the kids” play, but can you imagine the outcry if Boston gets swept, and the Yankees lose a game with Gardner, Miranda, and Cervelli in the lineup?  The papers that have been calling for seeing “the future” for weeks will turn on Girardi for giving the season away!  (sigh)

Instead of whining about facing Burnett and Halladay, why can’t the Yanks start to, you know, like hit those guys after having seen them so much?  Especially Burnett.  After all, other teams are certainly getting to the guy

I want to see Gardner reach on a drag bunt against Burnett and then steal second, third and home with Jeter up.

“Do you believe in unliklihoods??”

Effin’ A, Cotton.  Effin’ A!

Were we worried about unlikelihoods when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?  I think not.

Somewhat surprising to see 5.7% vs 9.3%.

Somewhat surprising to see 5.7% vs 9.3%.

Lesser team against better opponent on the road vs. better team against worse opponent at home.

Were we worried about unlikelihoods when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?  I think not.

Damn straight.

Instead of whining about facing Burnett and Halladay, why can’t the Yanks start to, you know, like hit those guys after having seen them so much?  Especially Burnett.  After all, other teams are certainly getting to the guy.

Yanks aren’t whining (as far as I know), we the fans are whining!  As for getting to the guy, you talking about an offense that made <strike>Cory</strike> <strike> Marty</strike> Scott Feldman look like Roger Clemens circa 1986.  ‘nuff said.

To be fair, Halladay isn’t a guy that has one or two good pitches that you can recognize early and learn to lay off, or hit the other way, etc.  Or even if one or two pitches aren’t working he’s screwed.  He *is* one of the top pitchers in the game, and has been for a while.

Burnette is a hot-and-cold guy.  When he’s throwing his fastball 95MPH with movement on the corners, and his curve has late-break and starts in the zone, he’s REALLY tough to hit.  When he can’t locate his pitches and his curve starts to hang, you can get a lot of walks and hit him hard.  From what I remember, he’s looked really good when facing the Yankees.  Not just results, but his “stuff” has been on.

I have a few things to say about J.P., some of which might get me arrested in some states.

Yet another reason to move to Canada.

I just laid 20-1 with a VERY superstitous Red Sox Fan.  If the Yankees win the WC I give him $400 and if the Red Sox get the WC he gives me $20.  I imagine I have much the best of this since its 200-1 that Fridays game is even meaningful so its about 3200-1 that the Yankees win the WC

Yet another reason to move to Canada.

I could see J.P. meticulously hunting you through the Yukon on snowshoes.  In fact, I seem to recall this being the plot of the hit movie Death Hunt.

Actually, I could see JP in the Iditarod (no relation to idiot A-rod).  The thing is, instead of choosing huskies who are strong and fast, he would choose huskies who <strike> play the game the right way</strike>  run the race the right way.

part of me hopes the Yankees sign Dunn just to watch him hit bombs off the Blue Jays for the next 5 years. 

yeah, and to add to #31, i don’t think Halladay is one of the best pitchers in the league, i think he IS the best.  i would take him for the next 5 years over anyone i think.

“i don’t think Halladay is one of the best pitchers in the league, i think he IS the best.  i would take him for the next 5 years over anyone i think.”

Hear hear!

Am I the only one who thinks this entire thread lowered our chances even more? Damn jinxers!

Am I the only one who thinks this entire thread lowered our chances even more? Damn jinxers!

Thinking that you have the power to jinx something simply by talking about it is akin to being a nazi.

/Michael Kay

Thinking that you have the power to jinx something simply by talking about it is akin to being a nazi.

Thinking that you have the power to jinx something that has a 13,332/13,333 percent chance of happenning is akin to believing that Michael Kay moonlights as both Batman and the Pope.

He doesn’t?

yeah, and to add to #31, i don’t think Halladay is one of the best pitchers in the league, i think he IS the best.  i would take him for the next 5 years over anyone i think.

I can’t say you’re wrong, but I can’t say you’re right, either.  Just a quick look at PRC (Pitching Runs Created) at HBT, for 2006-2008 (so far) here are a few players in Halladay’s neighborhood:

R. Halladay 358
J. Santana 398
D. Haren   323
B. Webb   364
J. Peavy   331
R. Oswalt   327
CC Sabathia 366

And of course all of those guys are (basically) the same age or younger than Halladay. Yes, some of those guys have pitched part or all of those years in the NL, and no, none of them but Halladay have pitched in the AL East.  And no, PRC isn’t necessarily the *best* metric to use, but it also isn’t a bad one I don’t think.  Anyway, I think it’s a good debate, and right now he probably is the best pitcher in the AL at least.  He certainly isn’t on the list of, “pitchers the Yankees can get w/o giving up Joba AND Cano AND Jackson AND Wang”.

Shortly after the season, I’d like to see a prediction thread: everyone makes their own predictions on what moves the Yanks will make in the offseason, as well as where the big FAs will land (CC, Tex, Sheets, etc.).

Bragging rights are on the line, as well as some fun come June 2009 when we can look back and wonder what we were thinking.

Just looking back on the predictions for ‘08 thread is going to be fun.  Which of us had Tampa and Chicago winning their divisions?

So, who wins the MVP in AL?

The odds wouldn’t be so bad if the Yanks didn’t have to face Burnett AND Halladay YET AGAIN!!

No, they’d still be pretty bad.

What if Wang didn’t get hurt?  Cano didn’t suck?  WOE was banished?  Melky didn’t revert back?  Hughes and Kennedy didn’t implode right away?
Such high hopes for this season.  I will carry them over to next year and consider this a Yankee “rebuilding year.”

Forgot the biggest ‘what if’....Posada didn’t get hurt?  ugh.

jorge doesn’t get hurt +2 wins
wang didn’t get hurt +3 wins
matsui and arod and cano play full years, well +5
hughes and ipk didn’t suck quite so bad +1 win
giambi and abreu continue to regress to the mean - 3

i think 95 wins was pretty reasonable and both amazingly optimistic at the same time.

So, who wins the MVP in AL?

Pedroia is going to win.

start buying your air sickness bags now.

the thing that sucks the most about Pedroia winning is that Jeter gets gypped when Morneau wins, the NY media raises a lot of hell, and the writers learn from their mistake to correct that wrong for Boston. And it’s almost the same as when all those Japanese rookies won the ROY, and then they realized how wrong it was and shafted Matsui. OR when Tino got shafted for Palmeiro on the GG, and then other candidates were examined for how many games they played if not how well.

All I know is that the Yanks get shafted when it comes to votes by annoying baseball writers.

All I know is that the Yanks get shafted when it comes to votes by annoying baseball writers.

I believe that’s the intent from the get go.

For all the bitching that goes on about this team (not just here) we are likely to pass the regular season win total of our last championship year. The difference IMO this year was our inability to beat the Os and Jays consistently.

Pedroia is going to win.

Really? Why?

I give it to Youkilis before I give it to him. As Jon Miller will tell you, his “Awps” is higher.

The difference IMO this year was our inability to beat the Os and Jays consistently.

And the Rays actually delivering on their promise. If the Rays are still a 70 win team, Yankees likely win wild card.

Go Moose.

“Sharp line drive to catcher Jose Molina”?  WTF?

Watching Brett Gardner run the bases is one of the awesomest sights in baseball.

Go Cliff Lee…

Return of the comma guy?
Pains me to utter it but I’d give the MVP to that scumqueen Youk.
He carried that club when Sloppy was down and played surprisingly good D.
He and Corky Ramirez hated each other too. That says something.
I just don’t know what.

Go to hell Cliff Lee.

Nice inning Bullwinkle. Very nice.

Cliff Lee sucks.  I hope this blows his Cy Young.

Moose’s elbow looks extremely ouchey.

You’d rather Dice-K wins?

You know what would be nice?  Lots o’ runs.

You’d rather Daisuke Matsuzaka wins?

I was thinking Halladay.

Damnit.

Kay’s “numbers” speak re- Nimrod has me cleaning the venerable Colt Commander and thinking about a short ride to Toronto.

Fair enough.

So, if Moose wins tonight, do you want to take chances with Moose and see if he can get the 20th. in his next start at Boston?

Or do you vulture him a cheap relief win at the expense of possibly Pavano, Hughes or Aceves?

Or do you vulture him a cheap relief win at the expense of possibly Pavano, Hughes or Aceves?

Considering he got whacked on the pitching elbow pretty good, probably no vulturing is possible.

Why was Moose pulled?

Oh, he got hit on the elbow… Crap.

SG, see [71].  His elbow looked red and swollen.

Brian Bruney has been really bad-ass since his LisFranc thing, hasn’t he?

Totally. I loves me some BB.

I think Cano was out.

Panasonic HD says out.

I think Cano was out.

You may consider not thinking in such scenarios.

Eh, I’ll take it. God knows, enough calls have gone against the Yanks this year.

I guess Molino Magic™ was a one night only deal.  He’s looked positively Molina-ish tonight.

Victor Martinez fails in the Fens. 5-4 Bad guys in the bottom of the 7th.

So, Moose will be stuck on 19th because of a freaking injury?

That’s unbelievably cruel. Anyway, I still try to get him cheapie, if he is up to it.

Also, Boston probably will field a bunch of scrubs, as they would have clinched by then, to rest regulars and keep them healthy for playoffs.

Effin’ Cleveland blew their chance with bases loaded in the 7th.

‘s over, folks.

‘s over, folks.

So can we stick sharp objects into the Yankees now?

Shut up. The 2 a yuze.

Yarrrrrrgh.

So, who pitches teh eighth?

Well done Damaso.

Thanks a lot Marte. You gutless cooze.

If the pen blows this one, I’ll sic Sarah Palin on their sorry asses.

Good job Joba.  Get it???? Job, Joba?!??!

The Indians are really sacking up in Fenway.  Just like last year’s ALCS.

At least Mr. The Hutt has a sack in his pants.

Thanks, Mr. the Hutt.

Brett’s “Awps” is .528! My quality of life have perceptibly improved.

I think the Indians are closet Red Sox Fans.

Oh Brett…

Sizemore up, 2 on. 2 out in the 8th

A stat-padding homer would be most welcome.