The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Saturday, July 26, 2008

What are Nady and Marte Worth?

As should be fairly common knowledge by now, the Yankees picked up RH outfielder/1B Xavier Nady and LH reliever Damaso Marte last night from the Pirates, pending physicals. It cost the Yankees one of the jewels of their farm system in Jose Tabata, as well as three talented arms in Ross Ohlendorf, Phl Coke, and George Kontos. Losing Tabata hurts a little, but despite his youth and talent he's still a ways away from the majors. As far as the three righties that were traded, if there's one the Yankees have a surplus of, it's righties with good arms. It makes sense to use that surplus to fill needs elsewhere in the organization.

I like this trade a lot, because neither Marte or Nady are rentals. Both are under club control through 2009. So the Yankees could very well have Bobby Abreu and Kyle Farnsworth's 2009 replacements on hand now.

So what exactly did the Yankees just pick up? First, let's look at Nady.

Nady,Xavier AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO HP SB CS AVG OBP SLG BR/650 pBRAA pBRAR
Projection 390 50 101 21 1 17 64 25 92 10 1 0 .259 .320 .449 84 -0.6 10.5
YTD 318 46 104 26 1 12 56 25 54 5 1 0 .327 .385 .528 111 13.9 23.0
Rest of Year 187 26 53 12 1 8 33 14 40 3 1 0 .286 .347 .491 97 3.8 9.1
Year End Total 505 72 157 38 2 20 89 39 94 8 2 0 .312 .371 .514 105 17.7 32.1


pBRAA: Position-adjusted batting runs above average
pBRAR: Position-adjusted batting runs above replacement-level

Nady's probably playing over his head this year. His career line is .281/.337/.456, career OPS+ is 108. Based on his revised projection, we should expect someting along the lines of .286/.347/.491 going foward. That's almost Hideki Matsui, with a little less OBP and a touch more SLG maybe. Nady has a pretty strong career platoon split as well (.320/.396/.483 vs. lefties and 268/.314.447 vs. righties), although he's doing well against both sides this season. Nady should mainly replace Brett Gardner going forward. I've got Gardner projected at .238/.319/.298 going forward, wich is -1.3 pBRAA, -0.3 pBRAR. So offensively, the Yankees improved themselves by about 9 runs going forward.

Defensively, Nady's mainly a corner OF who's played some 1B and a touch of CF.

Name YEAR LG Tm POS GP GS Inn PO A E DP CH ZR PM Diff RS RS/162
Xavier Nady 2005 NL SD 1B 44 34 299.3 261 27 4 26 75 .853 64 -1 -1 -6
Xavier Nady 2006 NL Pit 1B 34 25 236.3 247 32 2 29 59 .898 53 3 2 14
Xavier Nady 2006 NL NYM 1B 1 0 4.0 3 0 0 1 0 .000 0 0 0 0
Xavier Nady 2005 NL SD 3B 3 2 18.0 0 6 0 0 9 .667 6 -1 -1 0
Xavier Nady 2004 NL SD CF 4 4 28.7 5 0 0 0 5 1.000 5 1 1 30
Xavier Nady 2005 NL SD CF 30 28 244.0 54 0 1 0 64 .797 51 -5 -4 -26
Xavier Nady 2007 NL Pit CF 11 10 83.0 17 0 1 0 18 .944 17 1 1 18
Xavier Nady 2004 NL SD LF 18 10 105.0 16 1 2 0 19 .789 15 -1 -1 -15
Xavier Nady 2005 NL SD LF 26 6 100.0 18 0 1 0 17 1.000 17 2 2 27
Xavier Nady 2007 NL Pit LF 10 9 76.7 14 0 0 0 20 .700 14 -3 -3 -53
Xavier Nady 2003 NL SD RF 105 98 846.7 170 12 6 2 187 .882 165 1 1 2
Xavier Nady 2004 NL SD RF 2 2 14.0 2 0 0 0 2 1.000 2 0 0 23
Xavier Nady 2005 NL SD RF 13 7 82.0 11 0 0 0 10 .900 9 0 0 4
Xavier Nady 2006 NL Pit RF 28 27 234.0 50 1 0 0 53 .906 48 2 2 9
Xavier Nady 2006 NL NYM RF 71 70 620.7 137 5 4 0 156 .859 134 -2 -2 -4
Xavier Nady 2007 NL Pit RF 94 89 748.0 161 4 0 0 189 .852 161 -5 -5 -9
Xavier Nady 2008 NL Pit RF 81 81 712.2 188 10 2 5 198 .879 174 1 1 1
Total 1B 79 59 539.7 511 59 6 56 134 .873 117 2 1 3
CF 45 42 355.7 76 0 2 0 87 .839 73 -3 -2 -8
LF 54 25 281.7 48 1 3 0 56 .821 46 -2 -2 -10
RF 394 374 3258 719 32 12 7 795 .872 693 -3 -3 -1


TM :Team
LG :League
Pos :Position
FPCT :Fielding Percentage
GP :Games
GS :Games Started
INN :Defensive Innings at Position
PO :Putouts
A :Assists
E :Errors
DP :Double Plays
Ch :Playable Chances
ZR :Zone Rating (PM/Ch)
PM :Plays Made
Diff :Difference between PM and AvgPM
RS :Runs Saved
RS/162 :Runs Saved pro-rated to 162 games

Mady's been about average in RF in a little less than three full seasons worth of innings according to zone rating. I'd assume he'll play some LF as well. An OF of Damon in LF, Melky in CF, and Nady in RF should be pretty good defensively, so I'd like to see Abreu DHing some.

My friend Sean once got drunk with Nady and said he's a really cool guy too, so he has that going for him. Nady is not eligible for free agency until after 2009, so he gives the Yankees a replacement for Bobby Abreu next year as well. Even if he regresses as we should expect, he should be a decent player to have around over the rest of 2008 and for 2009 as well.

Let's move on To Damaso Marte, who's like Cashman's version of Moby Dick. It seems like ever since Cashman traded Marte for Enrique Wilson he's been trying to get him back. Marte's a good solid reliever who happens to throw left-handed, he's not just a lefty specialist.

Career vs RHB: .240/.328/.389
Career vs. LHP: .198/.294/.285

Marte's revised in-season projection is reasonably good.

Marte,Damaso G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA
Year-to-Date 47 0 47 38 18 4 16 47 3.47
Rest-of-Year 27 0 22 20 9 2 10 23 3.68
Total 74 0 69 58 27 6 26 70 3.54


That line's worth about a run above average over 22 innings, three runs above replacement, but looking at relievers that way doesn't necessarily convey their impact. Marte gives the team a tactical option that can improve their chances of winning in high-leverage spots so that makes him more valuable.

Marte's got a club option for 2009 at $6 million, which I'd imagine the Yankees will pick up unless he goes Gabe White on them.

It's pretty hard to not like this trade, even losing Tabata. The Yankees have the arms to replace Kontos/Ohlendorf/Coke already, and this doesn't just help the 2008 Yankees, it helps the 2009 Yankees too. So a big thumbs up from me on this one. Well done Cashman.

So, this Joba kid can pitch a little, huh?

Split GS W L IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA
as Starter 10 2 1 54.2 47 16 14 2 23 63 2.30


Update: According to poster psibe and his provided link to CNNSI, the trade is actually Tabata, Ohlendorf, Dan McCutchen and Jeff Karstens. I still like the trade, although losing McCutchen is another tough blow. McCutchen is a better prospect than Phil Coke or George Kontos, but Karstens is probably little more than replacement level, so McCutchen/Karstens = Karstens/Coke IMO. And Phil Coke is a lefty, so ignore what I said about him being a righty.
--Posted at 9:55 am by SG / 402 Comments | - (458)

Comments

Page 1 of 5 pages:  1 2 3 >  Last »

Uh oh I’m starting to not like the trade as much anymore. Turns out the Yanks gave up Mccutcheon, ohlendorf, tabata, karstens and no coke/kontos. Losing d-mac and tabata definitely hurts. This also is a big hit to the upper level pitching depth, giving up 3 of the AAA starters.

oh, and also phil coke is a lefty

Turns out the Yanks gave up Mccutcheon, ohlendorf, tabata, karstens and no coke/kontos.
Hmm, is McCutcheon/Karstens > Coke/Kontos?  Maybe.  I like McCutcheon, but that’s still seems like fair value to me.

oh, and also phil coke is a lefty

Doh.  Thanks.

sources:
http://www.rotoworld.com/content/clubhouse_news.aspx?sport=MLB&majteam=NYY
http://blogs.nypost.com/sports/st/archives/2008/07/mccutchen_karst.html
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/baseball/mlb/07/25/pirates.yanks.trade/index.html?eref=T1

This also is a big hit to the upper level pitching depth, giving up 3 of the AAA starters.

Ohlendorf isn’t a starter in the AL and Karstens is just terrible. McCutchen is pretty old. I way prefer this version of the trade to the other one, even if McCutchen is a slightly better prospect than the other two.

But Karstens pitched last night.  They allowed him to pitch (and go almost six innings)?  That seems strange.

However, any trade that sends Scary Flyball Guy far away from New York is automatically a plus in my book, second only to any trade that would ship Igawa off.

Hmm, is McCutcheon/Karstens > Coke/Kontos?

I don’t think so. Kontos has the most upside, Coke is about 4 months behind McCutchen in terms of development and Karstens is dead weight to an AL team. Giving up one fringe prospect is better than giving up two IMO, even if the one is the best of the three.

can someone please remind me why i dislike youkilis so much?  did he mouth off about arod last year?  i’ve found info about the joba vs. youk history, but i feel like there’s more…....my memory is failing.

its his beard

Dumping Karstens is nice but I really hope he gets flipped to the Dodgers where he belongs.

Karstens was on the 40-man, so if he’s in the trade they don’t need to DFA anybody to open up a roster spot.  This might mean that Giese gets optioned instead of Hawkins getting cut, which in turn might mean that the trade doesn’t help as much as we were thinking it would.

You know what, looking at a picture of Youkilis, I suddenly understand everything.  Joba is telling the truth, he never means to throw at Youk’s head.  It’s just that Youk’s head is so effin’ gigantic, it commands its own gravitational pull.  Joba can’t help it, the baseballs just get sucked in.

Giese is the long man, though, while Hawkins is just another short reliever.  That doesn’t mean the Yanks won’t opt to keep LaTroy, at least in the short term, but Giese at least has a defined and fairly important role - especially with two ticking time bombs in the rotation.

And for the record, I love the fact that Karstens is going to the Pirates.

As for Youkilis, if I could choose any of Boston’s everyday players and put him in pinstripes - that’s who I’d take.  If we are going to bag on Sox players, I’d much rather reserve my ire for Varitek, who is a replacement level blowhard at this point.

I’d take Manny.

I’d much rather reserve my ire for Varitek, who is a replacement level blowhard at this point.

He is a replacement level player at this point, and a perennial grade A+ blowhard.

I don’t dislike any player (even Papelbon is okay in my book) based on how they comport themselves, but that chickenshit fight at Fenway with A-Rod forced me to rethink that about Varitek.

I’d take Lester and the Laptop Thief.

Giese is the long man, though, while Hawkins is just another short reliever.  That doesn’t mean the Yanks won’t opt to keep LaTroy, at least in the short term, but Giese at least has a defined and fairly important role - especially with two ticking time bombs in the rotation.

Right.  That’s the scary part.  Who else would they send down?  Marte for Hawkins is a very nice upgrade.  Marte for anyone else currently in the bullpen, not nearly as much.

I’d take Pedroia just so he could rot on the bench behind Cano.

As for Youkilis, if I could choose any of Boston’s everyday players and put him in pinstripes - that’s who I’d take.

Strictly from a baseball value stand point, I’d probably take Petunia, but Youk is a close second.

If we are going to bag on Sox players, I’d much rather reserve my ire for Varitek, who is a replacement level blowhard at this point.

I like to spread out my dislike, Tek, Youk, Beckett, and Ortiz are all up there for me.

Who else would they send down?

Also, who goes down when Bruney comes back? Giese or Robertson?

I’ve never really understood the dislike for Ortiz.  He kills the Yankees, sure:  I respect that.

Eh, just when I was getting OK with the trade it changes. I really don’t like giving up McCutchen, mostly because I saw him as the most likely AAA guy besides Kennedy to be called up to replace Ponson/Rasner if needed. Aceves hasn’t really had any experience and Horne is still injured I believe. Obviously I have no issue with Karstens leaving. But, with Karstens, Ohlie and McCutchen gone who fills the AAA rotation? since that was 3/5s of the current rotation.

Bruney’s not coming back yet.  His velocity (and results) aren’t yet where the Yanks want him to be before they bring him back.  Anyway, they could say bye-bye to Big Sexy and just go with an extra reliever at that point.

Joba is telling the truth, he never means to throw at Youk’s head.  It’s just that Youk’s head is so effin’ gigantic, it commands its own gravitational pull.  Joba can’t help it, the baseballs just get sucked in.

This is exactly what I was just telling my friend on the phone.

Now that Duncan is back down in AAA, Youk stands well ahead of the pack in the Ugliest Player in MLB sweepstakes.  He is pretty damn good, though.  And you can’t blame the guy for being pissed.

And this trade…this is my kind of trade.  Any word on when Nady and Marte will be with the team?

Hey Clay, did you see the Murray Chass blog?

Also, are you suggesting that when making deals Cashman should take into consideration the holes in Scranton’s rotation?  No, you’re not.

Hey Clay, did you see the Murray Chass blog?

Dave S., you?

Clay, AAA rotation had 6 starters, so they really only need to fill in 2 of them.  Jason Jones could be one.  Maybe Chase Wright is the other guy to come up?  I’m not quite sure how he’s done this season.

I think they should’ve held onto one of McCutchen or Ohlie.  Since I have a completely irrational soft spot for Ross, I wish he’d been the one to stay.

What Murray Chass blog?  Did you guys finally start one??

Also, are you suggesting that when making deals Cashman should take into consideration the holes in Scranton’s rotation?  No, you’re not.

Clearly not, that should have been another paragraph, it was a related wondering.

Hey Clay, did you see the Murray Chass blog?

heard of it, but haven’t had the stones to go approach that vortex yet. You have pushed me Frog, thank you.

Obviously I have no issue with Karstens leaving. But, with Karstens, Ohlie and McCutchen gone who fills the AAA rotation?

Coke for one, maybe Kontos for another. I actually like it, in the sense that it’s the logjam of mediocre arms in the upper level of the minors. This will also make room Betances in AA.

What Murray Chass blog?  Did you guys finally start one??

No, we’re too lazy and stupid and inefficient—or at least I am.  But he did.  I won’t provide the link, because I really can’t condone giving his awful site additional hits.  But you can read Fire Joe Morgan’s take on it and laugh and laugh.

it helps clear the logjam is what I meant.

Oooohhh, that Murray Chass blog.  Yeah, that one I’ve heard of.

Coke for one

yeah that’s kind of what I figured.

but I don’t think Betances is ready for AA yet, nor are the Yankees ready to move him up. I’d guess that Heredia gets promoted before he does. Or Ryan Pope.

Jesus Christ, I just went and actually read Murray Chass’ “blog.”  Where can I put in a claim to get those 3 minutes of my time and 5 brain cells back?

Betances is nowhere near ready for AA yet.  He’s in low A and still walking a small army every time out.  Coke could get the promotion, but I still think it’ll be Jason Jones first.

You have pushed me Frog, thank you.

Yet another reason I will burn is eternal hellfire.

Yet another reason I will burn is eternal hellfire.

yeah, that was pretty painful.

Betances is at Charleston.  If the Yanks decide to promote him, he will go to Tampa.

Betances is at Charleston.

there’s that too. nice catch IE.

Guys, I went and took a look at Chass’ site too.  Now I agree that Chass is in the Buzz Bissinger category (who rightfully should have died from choking on Tony LaRussa’s dick).  But the stuff on his blog—well, it’s not terrible.  I glanced at a couple and read the one about Murcer being moved to left.  They seem like interesting reflective pieces from a guy who’s been around the game a long time, and not something that really makes me dislike him.  In fact I thought they were sort of cool.

Now have at me.

No, Fgas, you’re good. 

It’s just the “this-is-not-a-blog-because-bloggers-aren’t-qualified-to-write-about-baseball” stuff that makes me sad.  Sad, because he’s sad, and because of all the sheep who will nod solemnly in agreement.

It’s just the “this-is-not-a-blog-because-bloggers-aren’t-qualified-to-write-about-baseball” stuff that makes me sad. 

Basically.

There’s always Phil Hughes, isn’t there?

It’s just the “this-is-not-a-blog-because-bloggers-aren’t-qualified-to-write-about-baseball” stuff that makes me sad.

That, plus I thought the pure quality of writing in the Murcer piece was pretty poor.  I didn’t have the fortitude to read anything else.

McCutcheon is 26, goodbye. Talk about overrating somebody.

I’ll give Chass this: he doesn’t pepper his prose with glaring grammatical and syntactical errors, which is more than can be said for most sportswriters.  For example, reading Pete Abe is a little bit soul-killing for me—aside from his petty vendettas.

I don’t think anyone is overrating McCutchen, he was simply a solid backup option and could potentially deliver us from Razzle Dazzle or Sir Snacks.

I glanced at a couple and read the one about Murcer being moved to left.

Murcer was moved to right, not left.  Was that your mistake, or Murray’s?  Because while he may not “pepper his prose with glaring grammatical and syntactical errors,” peppering one’s columns with factual errors is equally worthy of disdain.

I’m not really sure McCutchen would have been ready this year.  He had his ups and downs at AAA and probably was (and is) a better bet to be a league average or slightly worse starter by next season.  Of course, he could be worse than that also.  In any event, Ian Kennedy is a better option to replace Snacks or Rasner when the inevitable implosion comes to pass.

It’s a bit strange that the lineup is yet to be posted and the game is set to start in an hour.  Does that mean Nady and Marte are stuck in some Boston traffic?

Yikes, this from Chad Jennings:

Dan McCutchen is driving to Indianapoilis this afternoon—roughly 10 hours—so that he can start for Indy tomorrow at 2 p.m. Quite a way to welcome him to the organization.

“Murcer was moved to right, not left”

My mistake, MC, I suppose you will disdain ME now…

“Dan McCutchen is driving to Indianapoilis”

I take back anything optimistic I may have said about the current Pirates organization.  I know it’s the minors, but what would it have cost to find him a flight?  $500?

Lineups posted!

YANKEES (57-45)
Damon DH
Jeter SS
Abreu RF
Rodriguez 3B
Giambi 1B
Cano 2B
Nady LF
Cabrera CF
Molina C
Pettitte RHP

RED SOX (60-44)
Pedroia 2B
Youkilis 1B
Ortiz DH
Ramirez LF
Lowell 3B
Drew RF
Lowrie SS
Crisp CF
Cash C
Wakefield RHP

Also, Igawa cleared waivers and has been outrighted to AAA, LaTroy was DFAed, and Gardner is back at Scranton.

I have a slight erection about all of the above.

yankeemonkey @49—As I said…

Lineups posted.  Nady in left.

And this good news from Pete A:

“Brett Gardner was optioned to Scranton. LaTroy Hawkins was DFA’d. Also, Kei Igawa had cleared waivers and was taken off the 40-man. So they’re at 39 now. Plenty of room for Jarrod Washburn.”

I’m surprised nobody claimed Igawa.

ym, I will never try to scoop you again.

You need to get out more, Frog.

Oh no, Pete A is now saying the Yanks traded for Jarrod Washburn.

I’m guessing Frog is all deflated now.

Pete Abraham is reporting the Yanks are “close” to a deal for Washburn.  I wonder whether he can make it to Boston in time to start tomorrow instead of His Snackiness.

Tumescent, then de-tumescent.

One of the pitchers spot as been replaced with a MLer?
I’m confuzzled. Is that allowed?

According to mlbtraderumors.com (which is almost always wrong), the deal will involve either Brett Gardner or Justin Christian - although I don’t know why the Mariners would choose 28 year old Christian over 24 year old Gardner.

“why the Mariners would choose 28 year old Christian”

They’re the Mariners. 

Pete A now saying Cashman is sort-of denying a deal.

IE- Vidro is their DH.
I don’t think they understand this “baseball” thing very well.

Everyone breathe:

UPDATE, 3:12 p.m.: Hmm, maybe not. Says Brian Cashman, “I have no irons in the fire. I’m cold.”

Of course that could change in a second.

Washburn is a salary dump, why would Yankees trade any semi-decent prospect for him?

Can anyone tell me how to find leaderboards for team ERA, team batting, etc?  I tooled around b-ref a little but didn’t find what I wanted.

fgas, ESPN’s baseball stats are surprisingly awesome. Here is team batting:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?statType=batting&group=7

Team pitching:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?statType=pitching&seasonType=2&group=7&typereg&split;=0&season=2008

Yankees are 4th in team K’s.

Thanks guys.

You’re welcome.

My mistake, MC, I suppose you will disdain ME now…

No, I was really hoping it was Chass who screwed up.  Fortunately, my disappointment is tempered by the news of the Hawkins DFA.  Not that I have anything against him personally, and not that he was actually in much of a position to hurt the team the way he’s been used recently, but sending out any other reliever instead would have been just plain dumb.

Am I the only one was watching FOX?
Did anyone hear Mark Grace’s HOF list.

These guys are complete morons. Mark Grace just said the Yankees gave up “absolutely nothing” for Marte and Nady.

Re: Nady -

we should expect someting along the lines of .286/.347/.491 going foward. That’s almost Hideki Matsui, with a little less OBP and a touch more SLG maybe.

Um, I’ll take that, please.  Essentially, Nady is filling the spot of Matsui (and perhaps Abreu in the field at some point).  And the Yankees needed another solid righthanded bat with Molina playing everyday and Melky sucking wind.

Baseball and FOX don’t mix. Stupid start times too.

Even card-carrying masochists think watching FOX pregame shows is a bit much.

Losing the #3 position (possibly overall) prospect hurts, but I am much happier about this trade having thought about what having Nady and Marte as 2009 options means.  It reminds me a bit of the Abreu trade in that way. 

I am feeling Nomaas-like respect for Cashman at the moment.

Buck and McCarver- *shivers

Drew looked awful on that.

I cannot see or think of Bobby Meacham but remember that he and Dale Berra are forever linked. Tears to eyes.

I see the Yankees came out working counts and trying to get the starter to throw a lot of pitches.

Some of these Bosox guys really wear Pettitte out. Whew!

Dale Berra lived in nearby Montclair and was an notorious scumbag. Is he still alive?

Any relation to Yogi?

Not our day, it seems.

To flip that ever-overused cliche:

How often do you see a player have a terrible at bat and then make a bad fielding play in the very next inning?

Well this is starting poorly.

By terrible at bat do you mean hit a rocket? You can’t steer ‘em.

and here comes the blowout!

I really hope someone clobbers Pedroia one day.  Maybe when he’s back in the minors.

Let’s limit the damage here…

Dale is Yogi’s son.

Pettitte absolutely blows against the Red Sox. Any of these runs unearned?

I HATE the FOX games.  Some crap always seems to happen, and usually not in Yankees’ favor.

Pokey Reese fields that ball standing still with time to scratch his balls and flip the ball underhanded to first.

/Kevin

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