Saturday, August 1, 2009
What a Difference Three Crappy Days Can Make
| Date | Team | W | L | RS | RA | TmStr | Div | WC | PL |
| 29-Jul | Yankees | 96.9 | 65.1 | 877 | 741 | .592 | 64.8% | 25.0% | 89.8% |
| 1-Aug | Yankees | 95.3 | 66.7 | 873 | 749 | .583 | 51.2% | 29.9% | 81.0% |
| Diff | Yankees | -1.6 | 1.6 | -4 | 8 | -.009 | -13.6% | 4.8% | -8.8% |
W: Projected wins
L: Projected losses
RS: Projected runs scored
RA: Projected runs allowed
TmStr: Team strength (estimated using 1/3 YTD WPCT, 1/3 YTD Pythagenpat, 1/3 2009 Projection)
Div: Division title percentage
WC: Wild card percentage
PL: Div + WC
These playoff odds are calculated using a Monte Carlo simulator that I downloaded from xlssports.com. I've tweaked it to work mid-season, and to allow me greater latitude when determining team strength, but the basic framework is the same. The odds are generally right around the average of Baseball Prospectus's various playoff odds reports. Both sets of simulations were run 10,000 times.
The Yanks will have to beat Mr. Perfect Mark Buehrle tomorrow to avoid a brutal sweep. Good luck with all that...
Comments
The difference is probably even a bit bigger than that, when you factor in the Red Sox adding Victor.
Just curious, what standard deviation are you using in the spreadsheet?
I’m using .035 for the standard deviations for every team. I am also adding in a manual adjustment for trade deadline moves. For example, with Philly, I had them as a .563 team before acquiring Lee/Francisco. I estimate that those two would make them maybe 5 wins better over a full season, which is around a .030 increase in terms of winning percentage. So their base WPCT for the remaining games goes from .563 to .593, although obviously the standard deviation will make that fluctuate in any given iteration.
I don’t think the V-Mart acquisition makes a huge difference for Boston going forward, maybe a win? But it does give them more depth and a bit more flexibility with platooning and defensive alignments. On paper that’s not easily quantified, but it’s certainly a good thing for them.
Yesterday (Friday) I demanded a great performance on SUnday from Bob’s Big Boy and said I wasn’t sure about Saturday’s game. Over to Bob’s Big Boy.
Anyway, I’ll be glad when the Yankees are finished with the Angels.
Paging Ray Milland, paging Ray Milland…..
We used to say that Cashman needed to Torre-proof the roster. It’s now apparent that he needs to Girardi-proof it. He can start by DFAing subreplacement level Ransom.
As much as I’d like to be upset with AJ over that peformance, he’s been so good that I feel OK giving him a grudging pass.
Yeah, I give AJ a pass as well.
Eight innings, 12 K’s, no runs from Bob’s Big Boy.
Time to step up.
Yeah - and let’s let the DH rest too. I expect 3 hits from CC.
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