Goodnight SG.

Here’s to 3-0.

My favorite imaginary part of the season is when Girardi gave his Oprah-esque speech telling the players, “you get a walk-off HR, you get a walk-off HR, you get a walk-off HR, WE ALL GET WALK-OFF HR’S!!!”

Sox are just waiting until they play games that really matter.  All part of the plan.

[3] He prefaced the speech by telling all of them to look under their chairs.

Jeter’s face when he looked under his chair and didn’t see anything:

ಥ⁔ಥ

He prefaced the speech by telling all of them to look under their chairs.

They do that at SWB Yankee games.  Not every game, but once in a while.  I got caught the first time (looking for a letter W or something) to see if I won.  Then they tell you as long as your standing anyway it’s time for the 7th inning stretch.  Not funny when you get caught, hilarious when you watch others get fooled.

Your sim is broke SG.  Red Sox lost and their probability for winning the series went down?  Doesn’t make sense; this is the team that is best at fighting adversity.  Down 2-0 guarantees they win the next three.

[7]:  A weird, unintended consequence of 2004 is that it’s now politically incorrect for RS fans to express doubt about the team’s ability to come back and win any series.  Faith is a good thing, but ENFORCED faith kinda sucks, or so I would think.

So… what we got to complain about?

For anyone who missed the game last night, here’s a peak into what it was like inside the Vortex Control Bunker.

Sox are just waiting until they play games that really matter

2010?

8: It complicates it a bit, but only for fans who don’t really watch, like the Pink Hats. Anyone who has watched this season can see they never hit good pitchers, which is pretty much their postseason epitaph. The best I can say is that at least we have a smart GM—Theo called this one last winter.

I can complain about this, vill:
IF the RS-Angles series is to go 5, it has to involve an heroic, ennobling Boston comeback, one that would involve the danger of Boston actually winning that series, which I wouldn’t want.  Sounds painful all around.

Also, in the previous thread, it was pointed out that, had the Mauer hit been a double and had it lead to a run, then (presuming the predetermined outcome) Teix would still have tied the game.
To which I think we can add:
And Alex would have won it.

Wow Pin, you have very cool hair.

Your sim is broke SG.  Red Sox lost and their probability for winning the series went down?  Doesn’t make sense; this is the team that is best at fighting adversity.  Down 2-0 guarantees they win the next three.

Yeah, I need to build in a circle-the-wagons adjustment I think.

The Red Sox are a completely different team at home this year, like most years.
Home: .284/.365/.498, 6.72 BR/Game, 4.07 ERA, 3.96 FIP
Road: .257/.340/.414, 5.01 BR/Game, 4.64 ERA, 4.54 FIP

Whether that’s due to constructing a team that takes unique advantage of the dimensions of their park, or due to my theory that they cheat like crazy at home by stealing signs and doing other shady things, that’s a pretty big discrepancy.

Can’t see the Angels sweeping them. I’d really be surprised if the Red Sox don’t win Games 3 and 4.

I dunno about anyone else, but I’ve had this idiot grin on my face all night, only made stronger by learning this morning the result of the Small Market Sawks game.

[15]
For the moment, pin, we may be twins.

Sometimes, off days can be very enjoyable. I hope this is what it feels like all winter.

I still can’t believe that there’s another off day today. This series is kind of ridiculous.

Whole relief corp available tomorrow. I won’t complain.

A-Rod press conference was really pretty good… and then, at the end, he had to go with AJ “probably had the best stuff he’s had all year today - he was phenomenal”...
Really?

But then again… who cares!

Another funny thing is that Gardenhire believes strongly in predetermined outcomes . In his presser, his argument was “you see what the guy did after Mauer, he got a single, that would have changed things.”

I like that he is completely ignoring the fact he would have had the next guy try to sac bunt if Mauer leads off that inning with a double.

I know exactly how A-Rod haters will spin this:

“Let’s see A-Rod be clutch against someone BESIDES Joe Nathan in Game 2 of an ALDS. Then I’ll be impressed.”

[21]
That’s just excellent, Ted.

Nice response in a comment on Goldman’s blog:

If anyone thinks that the blown call stole the game from the Twins, they must answer this… How is man on second, no outs better than bases loaded, no outs? That was the same inning and the Twins could not cash in. End of controversy.

I don’t think the RS are done.

Chuck Meriwether mooted anything Phil Cuzzi did.

Chuck Meriwether mooted anything Phil Cuzzi did.

Mauer actually pointed out something I was thinking while watching the replay: If he’s on second, Teix isn’t playing so close to the line and has a chance to get to Kubel’s grounder. Probably keeps it in the infield and prevents Mauer from advancing, and maybe gets an out.

A bad call is a shame, but nothing is a certainty either way. Rub of the green, and while it was very obvious, it wasn’t necessarily any more of an impact on the game than any other blown call, including balls and strikes.

[24] - Controversy not completely over.  Game state ratios are one thing, but completely ignoring who the batter is for that particular game state and whatever baserunning strategery Gardenhire would’ve employed are another.  Still a big what if, IMO.

The proper response to complaints about the Cuzzi disaster is that if Randy Marsh had called the Brandon Inge HBP properly, Alex Rodriguez might well have been taking Fernando Rodney out in the ninth last night. The Twins lived by the terrible umpiring sword and then they died by the terrible umpiring sword.

[27]
Actually, isn’t it pretty obvious that virtually nothing the umpires do affects the game as strongly as do ball-and-strike calls?  I mean, other than game-winning/not-winning safe/out calls at home plate…
If you wanted to fix a game and could affect one aspect of it, you’d choose ball and strike calls, no?

[28] Great point.

[27] I guarantee Gardenhire has Kubel bunt or has a PH bunt if Mauer is one second with no outs. You know why I know this, because the Twins ALWAYS play for one run in those situations.

Anyways, this whole thing is moot. The Twins lost because they left 17 runners on base including one that was two steps from home plate, and their closer couldnt get 3 outs before giving up 2 runs.

That is not to say that Cuzzi didn’t make an unbelievably bad call, which quite likely cost the Twins a run. However, in light of what happened Wednesday, Twins fans can’t really woof about getting screwed.

Er, Tuesday, not Wednesday.

Besides, if Gardenhire is going to stick to predetermined outcomes. The Yankees still tie the score in the bottom half of the inning.

I’ll worry about all the injustice in the world after the Yankees win the World Series.

Didn’t NYS seem much quieter than Anaheim these past 2 games? I’d like to believe it’s the location of the mikes but….

[34] Insert “be too drunk to” in between the words “I’ll” and “worry” and those are my thoughts exactly.

[35] Are you implying NYS needs thundersticks and exploding landmines in CF?

I could do without the thundersticks, but the exploding landmines in CF have me intrigued.

There’s something cool about thoese effects but I’m talking about the roar from the crowd - for example, as the bottom half of the 10th and 11th innings came.  It just sounded quiet

On TV, it sounded “like the old days” for both Alex and Mark’s shots.

I was going to say, it sounded plenty loud to me. And as someone who was there on Wednesday night, I can tell you it was pretty damn loud when Jeter hit the HR.

Those CF fireworks are smoky as hell in Anaheim. It’s like they pick them with that in mind.

[40] Check YouTube. Shit gets hectic.

I recorded the game last night because I could only watch through the first 6 innings.  I get home, turn the game on, and go bonkers with the A-Rod HR in the 9th.  Then I start getting worried as the game goes to extras because I only had an extra hour recorded.  The bottom of the 11th starts with 2 minutes left on the recording, and literally 10 seconds after Teix reaches home after the dinger the recording stopped.  Damn lucky.

There were times where the crowd was intensely loud….so much so that the coordinated chants were drowned out by chaotic “noise”.  Arod’s homer blew the roof off of my section, but then there was a let down in the tops of the 10th and 11th.  It actually really disturbed me how dead silent the crowd was.  I know we were all mentally and physically exhausted, but the game was on the line and everyone was sitting on their hands.  And no amount of peer pressure on my part could get them up.

Once Roberston got the 2nd out in the 11th, things turned back up.  And after Tex’s homer, nobody wanted to leave.

The best part (for me) is that there seems to be a vocal minority of Arod supporters that want to defend him against the bashers.  There was a smattering of boos after his first out, and the supporters came to his defense.  As we were leaving the stadium, I heard two or three “and if anyone ever says anything bad about arod again, they can go Farnsworth themselves”.

It’s sad that arod needed to be near perfect in order to win over the fans, but what’s done is done.  That part of his “legacy” is behind him.

Ok, back to drinking some tea and trying to recover my voice.

I think it makes sense to start Gardner in CF tomorrow as a result of the turf. His speed can be asset catching up to balls on defense, and on offense it may enable him to gain an extra base (or two) on balls hit to the gaps.

[44] - In the spirit of the Nobel Committee, I would like to award A-Rod the MVP for the 2010 World Series.

I second this idea.

[46]  That’s gold, DaPuj.  Gold!  And infinitely transmutable.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jk65rC_RksQ

This guy’s video best captures the experience.

I don’t get how going up 2-0 drops the Dodgers chances.

Am I missing something?

Am I missing something?

yeah.  The Dodgers were already 2-0 last time SG ran the simulation, and the simulation has some random variation.

I guess I still don’t understand the gain of adding in that variation. Obviously baseball is hard to predict but in the case of the Dodgers shouldn’t he just average the two projections? No real variable has changed in either favor so why prefer one over the other?

Then again he may have done this already.

I don’t think that it’s “prefer one of the other”.  No one would say that the actual probabilities for either NL series have changed, it’s just that when SG ran the latest sims, the Dodgers won 82.7% of the time, as opposed to the last round of sims when they won 83.8% of the time.

[52] The most recent robot baseball players inside of SG’s computer killed the earlier ones.

Did SG ever describe exactly what he does to create these odds?

Is Vicente Padilla really going to win a close-out game for the Dodgers?  I dislike the NL.

Is Vicente Padilla really going to win a close-out game for the Dodgers?  I dislike the NL.

Still very early.

I dislike the NL.

Agreed.

Bill Simmons (via Twitter): “7 straight retired for Vicente Padilla” - reason No. 819 why the National League is Quadruple A.

Dennis Reyes is substantial.

There were times where the crowd was intensely loud….so much so that the coordinated chants were drowned out by chaotic “noise”.  Arod’s homer blew the roof off of my section, but then there was a let down in the tops of the 10th and 11th.  It actually really disturbed me how dead silent the crowd was.  I know we were all mentally and physically exhausted, but the game was on the line and everyone was sitting on their hands.  And no amount of peer pressure on my part could get them up.

Frankly, this has always been my experience in previous playoff games at the old Stadium. Noisy early, a lull in the middle with spikes for big plays, noisy at the end. Lots of reaaaalllyyy quiet stretches when things are nervous or tense.

I was there Wednesday, and it was just as loud as previous big games at the old stadium. Watching Friday on TBS, it seemed the crowd mics weren’t turned up very high.

So, is the media going to get started about a Pujols being a choker or some such thing, or his deal with the media continues for that HR against Lidge and his one world series ring?

Dont put it past tbs to keep the crowd mics low to make NYS seem lame and quiet. It is a disgrace of a stadium afterall.

I fully expect a mic on each and every Twins fan Sunday night and all of them set to 11.

[62] I think NYS is quite loud, but it really can’t compare to the Metrodome.  The dome aspect just isn’t fair.  I lived in Minneapolis for two years and that’s the loudest baseball stadium I’ve heard.

The Cardinals are officially failing to rage against the dying of the light.

Oh, I wasnt saying the dome isnt loud. In fact, I have been there numerous times for Twins-Yankees games and its always very loud, although the 50% of the crowd that are Yankees fans deserve some credit for that.

[65] I understood your point though.  It’s entirely possible TBS would do that.  And yeah, a lot of Yankees fans are at those games.  I was hoping for a Yankees-Twins ALCS in 2006 (so I could go).  Of course we ended up with Tigers-A’s.

I lived in Minneapolis for two years and that’s the loudest baseball stadium bowling alley I’ve heard.

Fixed.

If you wanted to fix a game and could affect one aspect of it, you’d choose ball and strike calls, no?

I think I’d choose the starting pitcher.

...literally 10 seconds after Teix reaches home after the dinger the recording stopped.  Damn lucky.

Predetermined outcome.

[68]
I think I’d choose the starting pitcher

Close to the same thing - obviously, you see what I mean.
I think you probably also understood that the discussion was taking place within the realm of umpire decisions - otherwise, you could just choose the owner of the other team and have it forfeit.

[49]
Hilarious.

tokyojordan, the Twins SHOULD have played the Yankees in the 06 ALDS but the Tigers lost 3 straight at home to the worst team in the league (KC) to cough up the division. And I believe winning those three games cost KC the #1 pick.

Then Kenny Rogers was allowed to pitch with a gallon of Mrs Buttersworth Maple Syrup on his left hand in the ALDS.

Then Kenny Rogers was allowed to pitch with a gallon of Mrs Buttersworth Maple Syrup on his left hand in the ALDS.

Haha.

obviously, you see what I mean

Obviously.

you could just choose the owner of the other team and have it forfeit

But where’s the fun in that?

And yes, I know it was about umpires, but still… one of the things that last night showed us is that relying on the umpires to put the fix in will only get you so far.  Merriwether was giving Twins pitchers a 25-inch plate while Yankee pitchers only got 10, and the Twins still couldn’t win.  Much safer to pay the pitcher to serve up some nice meatballs, or at least that’s what Mr. Rothstein told me.

I couldn’t tell from the chatter other than the disappointment that Gardner got picked off. But watching it at my friend’s place, that looked like a fairly big misplay. Was his aggressiveness good but luck bad, or was it a matter of making sure the ball got through or staying out of the inning ending play?

And reading LoHud, there was a bit praising for Cervelli not going after the double play on Gomez’s fielder’s choice. I thought Cervelli had a shot, even if the throw to home didn’t seem the crispest, but I really thought not doing anything stupid is a bigger consideration. So I thought he did good, even without the predetermined outfield putout to follow.

Kepner:

... Hughes threw three balls to walk Gomez, a hitter not known for patience.

“On 1-2 and 2-2, I was overthrowing the ball,” Hughes said. “I was really trying to put a fastball by him. That caused me to open up a little bit and lose the zone. On 3-2, I was thinking, Throw this guy a strike and don’t walk him. I ended up babying it in there and missing down and in. I’m just lucky I didn’t cost us the game because at the time it seemed like I did. Two-out walks can’t happen.”

The bullpen is not a long-term role for Hughes. The Yankees see him as a starter, the role he has filled successfully in the minors and, at times, in the majors. But Robertson was groomed to relieve. It is easy to imagine him as the primary setup man next season.

Kepner hates IPK, or the meme was missed?

I guess I still don’t understand the gain of adding in that variation.

The point is, projection systems are far from infallible.  Combine that with the small sample sizes in a postseason series, and we really can’t say we know exactly how good or bad any team will do in a series.  So we hedge our estimates with some uncertainty.  Figure a range of around +/- 5% on any of these probabilities and don’t be so concerned about a 1-2% change when nothing has actually changed in a series.

Did SG ever describe exactly what he does to create these odds?

Maybe not. 

1) Calculate estimated team strength for each team, using the stats and methodology described in these posts.

2009 ALDS Preview: Satan’s East Coast Team vs. Satan’s West Coast Team

How Good Are the 2009 ALDS Version of the Yankees On a Spreadsheet?

2) Take those winning percentages and feed them into a Monte Carlo simulator.  I’m using one that I downloaded from here, although I’ve modified quite a bit to work the way I want it to.

3) After each game in each series, adjust projected playing time and innings, which will re-calculate the winning percentages for the team. 

For example, before Game 1, the Yankees were around a 107 win team on paper, on the assumption they’d be getting 2 starts out of C.C. Sabathia and would have three home games.  After game 1, they lose a Sabathia start and a home game which brings them down to a 104 win team. 

Conversely, the Twins in Game 1 were starting the fourth worst starter and were looking at being on the road for three out of five games.  That made them around an 84 win team.  After Game 1, they no longer have a home field disadvantage and they likely won’t need to throw Duensing again which boosts them to an 87 win team.

That’s basically it.

I guess we can stop worrying about simulating the Cardinals/Dodgers series now.

[77] Next contestant: Sybill Fawlty, special subject…

FWIW (possibly not much), Sherman on Joba:

The Yankees were exacerbated by Joba Chamberlain’s inconsistency, and a faction of the organization wanted him sent to Triple-A in August, The Post has learned.

But they had nowhere to turn for alternatives. They just thought it was too dangerous to have Chad Gaudin and Sergio Mitre in the rotation. Alfredo Aceves, Phil Coke and Phil Hughes had helped make the bullpen an asset, and manager Joe Girardi did not want to disrupt a strength. Ian Kennedy still was recuperating from aneurysm surgery.

Nevertheless, many organizational decision-makers felt Chamberlain was too comfortable, that he was not even feeling the threat of the minors and, perhaps, that was leading to regression as a starter.

After Chamberlain blew up in Seattle on Sept. 20, Girardi and pitching coach Dave Eiland brought him in for a stern lecture. Girardi and Eiland have downplayed it, but I have been told my multiple members of the organization that Girardi directly told Joba his playoff roster spot was in peril if he did not pitch better. Because the minor league season was complete, the Yankees saw challenging Chamberlain to earn his postseason spot as their only shock treatment vehicle.

[snip]

As I reported in Friday’s Post, Chamberlain almost certainly will not start if the Yankees advance to the ALCS, and they take a two-games-to-none Division Series lead into tonight’s Game 3. If the Yankees decide to go with four starters, Chad Gaudin likely will go in ALCS Game 4. Chamberlain already has been used in relief in both Yankees victories over Minnesota, and the Yankees like the power game he brings to the late innings.

[snip]

The Yankees’ current intentions are to have Chamberlain and Hughes show up in spring training ready to start. They also may ask Aceves to come prepared to be stretched out. Kennedy also is expected to be ready in full, and the Yankees think farmhands Ivan Nova and Zach McAllister are close to major league ready.

[79] was directed at [78]

Exacerbated, Joel?  Really?  YOu know, you can be pretty exacerbating yourself sometimes.

[82]
This is the sort of thing that comes to mind whenever I see an article by a journalist on the topic of ‘fine writing’ (sorry, WJ - there are, of course, exceptions).
Especially a sports journalist.
To wit:
http://www.nationalpost.com/arts/story.html?id=1948875

I like to think of Joel Sherman as being one of the smarter beat writers in NY.  Sadly, his vocab hatchet job doesn’t affect this belief.  What really shocks me - shocks! - is that his editors missed it to.

I was going to type [sic] after the word, but I thought it would be pedantic.