Are these projections based on slash lines against Yankee pitchers?

So the plan is for Verlander to pitch on Sunday and then Jackson starts the tiebreaker on Monday…

Yeah, yeah, so what does all that nerdy crap mean?

Yanks in four?

OT, but I had a thought and I don’t want to lose it (as I seem to so many these days).  We’ve had some conversations over the last month or so about what Yanks should do for DH next year (Matsui, Damon, other).  What about trading for Adam Dunn?  I don’t know what it would take to get him - I wouldn’t do much but maybe a B prospect and a couple of C’s - but he’s not 30 until next year, on a reasonable contract (1yr/$12M, or $1M less than Matsui), and is still one of the better *hitters* in the game.

Seems to me a LH power-hitter in NYS who draws a ton of walks would be a good thing, and the Yanks would have 3 legitimate 40 HR threats on the team.  Sure, I understand wanting to leave DH open for veterans and all that.  But for only 1 year until Montero is ready (either to DH or move Posada more to DH)...

[1] Right under the chart for hitters:

I also haven’t accounted for the strength of the opponent possibly suppressing scoring, but once we have neutral team strengths for the matchups we are looking at we can possibly account for that.

[3] Dunn would hit 50 HRs with 81 home games at the NYS, but the question, as always, is the cost in terms of prospects. The system doesn’t have a lot of depth given the epidemic of pitching injuries.

SG, I think they are going with the longer series, which probably means that we will see Jackson twice, and no Robertson.

If you can, it would be nice to see both scenarios, and compare them afterwards with the Yankees, so we can see in which one of the 4 scenarios our chances are better.

Are these projections based on slash lines against Yankee pitchers?

No.  Batter/pitcher matchups and their small sample sizes don’t tell us anything more than the overall line according to any research I’ve read.  You would probably want to look at stuff like platoon splits, but I wouldn’t go much beyond that.

Ahh. Thanks.

Incidentally, Dunn has hit exactly 40 HRs in each of the last 4 years, and he’s sitting on 38 right now.  This could turn out to be one of the most amazing streaks in sports.

[2] Tiebreaker would be Tuesday because of MNF in the dome on Monday.

Actually, that would only be if it’s in Minnesota. Has that been determined yet?

Than have the tiebreaker be played at 11 AM. The yankees have the right to choose the longer series if they want, and they shouldn´t forfeit it because of a clearly misnamed sport.

[13] This year tiebrakers are played at whomever won the season series. I think it is the Twins.

Minnesota has the season series at 10-6, so I think they’d have HFA for a 1 game playoff.

[12] They wouldn’t have to forfeit it as far as I know. DET/MIN would just have to turn around and play at NY on Wednesday.

My guess is MLB would make it a Monday daytime game to avoid playing Tuesday though.

[15] Sorry, my mistake. I thought and hopes thew playoffs would start on Tuesday.

but the question, as always, is the cost in terms of prospects.

Sure, I guess that’s kinda what I’m asking?  Obviously, I’m not interested in giving up Montero or Jackson.  I’d have no problem giving up…oh, Kevin Russo (yes I know he’s Rule V eligible).  But what would 40+ HR and 100+ walks for one year - plus the possibility of some draft picks (depending on if the compensation is renegotiated/he’s a type-B/state of the economy) be worth?  Either specifics players or conceptually (e.g. two C+ no more)?  Or are some just opposed to getting Dunn at all?

[11] Minny won the coin-flip I believe.  I don’t know if it’s been resolved what would happen w/ the tie-breaking game.  I have a feeling they’re not going to announce anything until they have to…CW says they’ll move the baseball game.

Now this would be a GREAT souvenir.

http://yankees.auction.mlb.com/cgi-bin/ncommerce3/ProductDisplay?prrfnbr=108742222&prmenbr=33340469&aunbr=109088932

I know the team and everyone else is really focused on the World Series and that’s great but no matter what happens you have to acknowledge that this has been an outrageously fun season as a fan.  This would be an amazing thing for any rich Yankee fan to add to their collection and do something for charity at the same time.  Forget all the crap that the Yankees have been pawning all year from the old stadium.  I’d take this over all of it any day.  Oh to dream…

[18] No coin flips this year. Best record head-to-head determines who hosts the tiebreaker. It would be Minny. And let us not forget to pray it goes on for 29 innings.

How many years consecutively debating the acquisition of Adam Dunn?

[21] IDK, but how may other players in MLB have a power stroke that is so well suited to the new or old YS?

[21] Not as many as years as he’s hit 40 HR’s in a row and/or had that freak of nature OBP.

I know this is off-topic, but I highly recommend you read the new SI cover piece on Rivera.  Maybe it can be linked to?  Anyway, it’s great and I just love the reverence that other players have for him (as opposed to say, papelboner).

They’ve already announced that the playoff, if necessary, would be on Tuesday.  I guess you can’t reconfigure the Metrodome from baseball to football fast enough to do it on the same day.

[2] Sunday would be Verlander’s regular turn, so you have to assume he starts if the game matters.  Jackson is due to pitch Friday night, so he’d be going on three days rest in the hypothetical Tuesday game.

The only difference between the playoff schedules is the day of the first game (Wednesday or Thursday).  Game two is on Friday (10/9) and game three is on Sunday (10/11) either way.  If the Tigers haven’t clinched by this Sunday, then Verlander lines up for games 2 and 5.  Jackson could pitch games one if there’s no playoff, and game four as well if the Yanks pick the longer series.  If there is a playoff and Jackson starts it, then he wouldn’t pitch again until LDS game three.  Even though he’d be on regular rest for game two, they won’t start him ahead of Verlander.

Dunn for a B prospect or Milton Bradley for free…

MB is subtraction by addition.

Resign Nady and one of Damon/Matsui. Bring up Montero at the ASB. 85% of the production at 20% of the price.

[2] Pretty sure Jackson’s turn comes up Thursday or Friday.

[6] You’re assuming that Verlander is needed to clinch on Sunday, right?  If not, obviously they’ll save him for Game 1.

Strikes me as a real longshot for Minny to force this to Game 163 tiebreaker.  They really have to win tonight and tomorrow.  Otherwise they’ll need serious help, especially since they have another date with Greinke.

Adam Dunn?  Not at all opposed in principle.  Born to hit at NYS.  But given the reasonable contract, there will be plenty of competition.  I imagine Wash can command a more impressive package.  If I were they, I’d ask for a pair of prospects led by IPK or Melancon.

I actually think, if you bring back Hinske, he and Shelley would be a nice cost-efficient DH platoon option, with A-Rod/Posado/others maybe DHing 40-50 games.  This seems especially palatable if they manage to sign Holliday, which strikes me as unlikely.

My guess is, when it’s all said and done, either Damon or Matsui will be back but not both.

Isn’t Nady out till at least July?

Not that there are many holes to fill, but I think an interesting winter question is whether they look to trade Gardner.  (Probably not after his walkoff steal of home in WS Game 7).

By when do they have to officially decide if they pick the “A” or “B” DS schedule?  I thought it was within 24 hours of clinching HFA or something.

Obviously SSS, but has anyone looked up Verlander/Jackson’s track record on short rest?

By when do they have to officially decide if they pick the “A” or “B” DS schedule?  I thought it was within 24 hours of clinching HFA or something.

I read somewhere, possibly here, that they had one hour after knowing who their opponent would be.

I keep thinking of the Minis winning post-season series by losing all the games on the road and winning all the games at home.  Meaning that, if the other team had HFA, they’d have had to win only one road game to win the series.
And I was thinking about how this might affect our preference…
But the shocker is that Detroit’s home-road splits, incredibly, are more skewed than Minis’!  How did that happen?  Is there something about Nottiger Stadium that accounts for this?

[29] I think it is one hour after the end of the final game of regular season (AL, not the Yankees final game).

Isn’t Nady out till at least July?

I thought that was the case, but I’m recalling a Pete Abe report where he said Nady expects to be ready sometime in the spring. Time frame associated with TJS x 2 for position players is an unknown for me, but it makes sense that the recovery time would be shorter than for pitchers. We see pitchers on the mound in 18 months, and Nady had his surgery in May (I think.) If it’s a 12 month thing, I’d take a flyer on Nady for 5/6 of a year at a good price.

By when do they have to officially decide if they pick the “A” or “B” DS schedule?  I thought it was within 24 hours of clinching HFA or something.

1 hour after their opponent-to-be is determined.

Happy Belated to Thurm.  Walkoffs are nice birthday gifts.

“. . . he and Shelley would be a nice cost-efficient DH platoon option”

Hopefully, they won’t waste a roster spot on a DH platoon, let alone put Shelley Duncan in such a role.

Not that there are many holes to fill, but I think an interesting winter question is whether they look to trade Gardner.

I’d prefer if they look to trade Melky.  Offensively they’re basically a wash, but Gardner is better defensively, and has more use coming off the bench as a pinch-runner.  Though Melky is younger, Gardner has (considerably) less service-time and therefore is both cheaper and under team control for longer.  And if we get rid of Gardner where will we find our gruttiness?

I presume the apparently unfinished sentence meant that the defense involves an average of ZR and UZR… ?

Also, where did YM disappear to, anyhow?

Time frame associated with TJS x 2 for position players is an unknown for me

Probably safe to say it’s an unknown for everybody.  I mean, talk about SSS.  FWIW, Nady had the surgery on July 8, and said he thinks he’ll be ready for the start of the 2010 season.  But what does he know?  He’s NADAHDPOOTV, although HMHSAAHIELN for all I know.

Though Melky is younger, Gardner has (considerably) less service-time and therefore is both cheaper and under team control for longer.

Which may mean that Gardner has more trade value right now.

Hopefully, they won’t waste a roster spot on a DH platoon, let alone put Shelley Duncan in such a role.

While I think Shelley would do fine in a DH platoon, I agree DH is one spot you really don’t want to platoon.  At least not if the intention is those two are almost entirely DH’s.  For my two-cents, if you are going to have a full-time DH, he better HIT.  Dunn to me looks like a 4+ WAR player as a DH.  FWIW, that’s more than a win better than Matsui.

Oh well.  For my two-cents, as soon as the WS is over Cashman should talk to the Nats to see what it would cost, and see if he can pull one of those trades where he gets rid of a few guys off the 40-man he may be inclined to drop anyway.  I agree they shouldn’t over-pay for him; but for the money I think if Dunn were a FA and asked for 1yr/$12M I don’t know if many would be against that.  If Cash can do a trade like he did for Abreu…

Nady should be signed to a MiL contract, if he’s willing.  Regardless of what they do w/ other spots.  Give him a May 30th out or something.  He then has as long as it takes him to regain his stroke in the minors, and AAA will probably be light on outfielders to start the year.  Works for both parties I think.

Though Melky is younger, Gardner has (considerably) less service-time and therefore is both cheaper and under team control for longer.

I think you’ve got to look at net gain. If they’re similar, but Gardner can get a bigger haul, etc. You might considering the trading partner and what hole they’re trying to fill - Melky is an average player to round out a line up, Gardner’s a potential lead off guy with great speed and a decent OBP.

“NADAHDPOOTV”

Can’t believe I understood this.  Working on the second one…

Got the first half of it…

Which may mean that Gardner has more trade value right now.

That is true.  And if they are willing to deal one I think they should be willing to deal either.  I guess what I’m saying is if the trade package is equal - Team X says they’ll give player Y for either one - Yankees should keep Gardner.  If Gardner is they keystone piece between getting or not getting Halladay, I’d be okay with him leaving.

Also, where did YM disappear to, anyhow?

The last posts I remember were bemoaning negativity and other downer vibes.

OTOH we’ve been so much better, I think, since we created complaint threads to segregate out that traffic. And also the winning.

Hey Wombat, I think this article would bring you some joy.  Or make you frothing at the mouth angry…

OTOH we’ve been so much better, I think, since we created complaint threads to segregate out that traffic. And also the winning.

I keep hearing about there being threads besides the complaint threads, but can never seem to find them…

“Maybe it can be linked to? “

You know, YOU could have linked to it…

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1160757/index.htm

Mike K., thanks.
Glad to see that.
Couldn’t hurt, right?

Hey SG, stats question.  I’m browsing through some info on BBRef (trying to find last team that had an OPS+ as least as high as the 120 the Yankees have this year).  Something that I started noticing when I hit the 1960’s - league average OPS+ is in the low-90’s.  That doesn’t make sense, does it?  I thought the whole point was to adjust OPS for the park and league, so that an average hitter in an average park would have an OPS+ of 100.  I could see it being 99 due to some flukes of the math/rounding, but it is consistently below 95 for the decade…

I feel the need to complain about the unjustified accusations of negativity and complaining by the honorable members of RLYWB.
It just makes me sad.

I failed today’s IQ test- where are the complaint threads?

You know what’s even worse than unjustified accusations of negativity and complaining?  People feeling the need to complain about it.

Maybe I’ve mentioned it before, but I wonder if MLB tells the umpires to call the outside strike to LHB in order to maintain a bit more parity wrt RHB.

I resent the complaint contained in [54].
Lord, why would anyone do that?  It must mean that things are really awful and the world is coming to an end.
(With any luck, NY can squeeze in the WS victory before sky hits earth.)

[49] fair point, but i’m not a regular around here and didn’t wasn’t sure if it was worth starting a thread about.  Thanks for doing that though.  It’s a great read.

[55] Interesting.  It strikes me that most umpires are remarkably consistent (albeit often “wrong”) on balls and strikes.  It seems that it’s difficult to explain such consistency if it isn’t somehow intentional, at least on the part of the individual umpire.

MC, what does “AHIELN” mean?

Couldn’t hurt, right?

You wouldn’t think so, would you?

Okay, it looks to me that Yanks have the highest OPS+ (120) in the AL since the 1931 Yankees had an OPS+ of 125.  And only lower than 3 teams - 1927 Yanks (128), 1930 Yanks (123) and 1931 Yanks.  I’m sure there are only three possible reasons why they aren’t one of the top teams historically in RS as well.  1) They don’t play the game the right way 2) Cano’s #‘s w/RISP 3) ARod.

[55] I doubt it.  If only because MLB has been the one to try to put Questec and other systems in, and then use it to evaluate umps.  Which of course umps have been against.  I just can’t see umps being silent about the fact that MLB has *instructed* them to call the pitches wrong when MLB is trying to prove the umps are calling pitches wrong.

The data from Questec et al aren’t publicly available, though, are they?  Only if one watches gameday a lot does one see that the zone to LHB is wide left, or that the lower edge of the zone isn’t called (assuming gd is correct).  Watching games they don’t show the zone very often - I can even imagine the league asking the broadcasters not to show up the umpires much.

Watching games on tv…

[59]  I can’t believe you got the “HMHSA” part if you can’t figure out the “AHIELN”.

He May Have Stayed At A Holiday Inn Express Last Night.

For all I know.

[61] MLB has put QuesTec in the they are using it to evaluate umps, so I don’t know why you say “try”.  The umps complained early on, but not nearly as much as Tom Glavine and Curt Schilling did.  I’m not big on conspiracy theories, but I wouldn’t find it all that hard to imagine that MLB would want to use QuesTec to implement something other than the precise rule book strike zone, and that the umpires would be willing to cooperate.

Forgive me for being blatantly off-topic— even though I could’ve couched this in with a simple “speaking of projections…”— but apparently CAIRO is leading the pack in forecasting 2009. PECOTA, not so much.

http://vegaswatch.net/2009/09/evaluating-april-mlb-predictions-2009.html

If this is a re-post— what isn’t a re-post at this point?— my bad.

I failed today’s IQ test- where are the complaint threads?

Good question. Complaint threads are any thread about the Yankees. Frequently popping up after victories, after walk off wins, after series sweep(s), within long winning streaks. It’s all part of the Yankee fans pursuit of perfection for their beloved team. Or, just part of the nature of the beast for mom basement shut-ins who only care about stats.

Or complaint threads came up during the course of the standard complaining, then SG and Jonathon double posted a wrap up of a game, and someone humorously stated that one post was to sing the praise, and the other was to complain.

One thing about having Melky is that it spares complaints against Gardner and how some kid in the minor or veteran should be obtained to take over for Gardner.

I don’t think they will trade Melky or Gardner (assuming another CFer isn’t acquired) until they think AJack is ready.

[66] Got it.  My complaints about this team are minor, and I figure management actually knows a lot more than I do, so I’ve no specific ones.

I’ve plenty to complain about were I an Orioles fan, but then I’d also enjoy repeatedly smashing my face into concrete.

Of course, there are other possible explanations for the zone being wide left to LHB.  The umpires tend to look over the catcher’s inside corner shoulder.  IOW, they’re positioned differently for RHB and LHB.  Most people are right eye dominant, aren’t they?  So most umpires would get a better look at the outside corner with RHB than with LHB.  Maybe umps are consciously or subconsciously aware of this limitation, and (over)compensating.

[65] I don’t understand what “RLYW” means there as distinct from CAIRO.

[69] I don’t understand why MLB wouldn’t have noticed the discrepancy and given the umpires some training on adjusting, if that’s what it wanted.

[70] - I think “RLYW” is the cumulative projections of all the systems used in the Diamond Mind Blowout posts, while CAIRO is just CAIRO.

[65] Things we already suspected and are now confirmed: SG is a crazy evil genius and is manipulating baseball with his stats and numbers.

Its a game played by real people, you nefarious mastermind! Just let them be. Think of the children. think of the children!

CAIRO is god.

Has there been a final ruling on what CAIRO stands for?  I forget if there was.

If you can, it would be nice to see both scenarios, and compare them afterwards with the Yankees, so we can see in which one of the 4 scenarios our chances are better.

[6]Ok, if you swap Robertson for a second Jackson start of 6 IP, you bump up their WPCT from .521 to .529.  If it does end up being Detroit vs. the Yanks, I’ll do the comparisons based on the expected rotations.  So Detroit overall is a .521 or .529 team, but when Verlander starts maybe they’re really more like a .590 team, etc.,

Hey SG, stats question.  I’m browsing through some info on BBRef (trying to find last team that had an OPS+ as least as high as the 120 the Yankees have this year).  Something that I started noticing when I hit the 1960’s - league average OPS+ is in the low-90’s.  That doesn’t make sense, does it?  I thought the whole point was to adjust OPS for the park and league, so that an average hitter in an average park would have an OPS+ of 100.  I could see it being 99 due to some flukes of the math/rounding, but it is consistently below 95 for the decade…

[51]I’d have to look at it more closely, but I know that Sean Forman changed how OPS+ is calculated about a year ago.  He used to calculate against the single season park factor but changed it to use three year park factors.  I could see a case where a park factor swung wildly from year to year which would skew the OPS+ in a single season.

Say you had a team that had a park factor of 105 in year n, 105 in year n+1, and
95 in year n+2.  The weighted park factor would be something like 100, so even though the park factor in year n+2 favors pitchers, the stats of that team are being compared to league average.

But like I said, I’d need to look at the data more closely to see what’s going on there.

Forgive me for being blatantly off-topic— even though I could’ve couched this in with a simple “speaking of projections…”— but apparently CAIRO is leading the pack in forecasting 2009. PECOTA, not so much.

http://vegaswatch.net/2009/09/evaluating-april-mlb-predictions-2009.html

If this is a re-post— what isn’t a re-post at this point?— my bad.

[65]I did see that, but I figured:
a) It’d be a little braggadocios to link to that post.
b) Season’s not quite over yet, so things could change.

[70] - I think “RLYW” is the cumulative projections of all the systems used in the Diamond Mind Blowout posts, while CAIRO is just CAIRO.

[69][70]

Right, it’s the aggregate of all the projections.

Children Against Insolent RedSox Officials?

Crazy Algorithm I Recently Optimized

Optimized->Optioned.  CAIRO: The Movie.

[71]  Hard to say in the absence of more data about who knew what and when they knew it.  Maybe they don’t want to intervene in mid-season.  Maybe the trend is not as consistent across the board as it is in your limited observations.

[76] Thanks, as I was looking at it more it seemed something to do with park-factors.  I can say I don’t know enough about it though to understand why.

MLB has put QuesTec in the they are using it to evaluate umps, so I don’t know why you say “try”.

I knew they put it in, and I knew they tried to use it.  I wasn’t sure how successful it was though, because I though there was some talk from the umps about how this wasn’t in their contract, etc.  I couldn’t remember if that got resolved, i.e. did the numbers MLB put out have any bite.  I don’t think any ump has been fired, and if anything they seem to be getting worse, so…

Maybe the trend is not as consistent across the board as it is in your limited observations.

Haven’t you been observing his observations?  Rilke observes *everything* 

As you say, appearances are not fact, so perhaps overall the umps are doing better/Questec reporting them as better.  In that case, it is obvious they are just biased against the Yankees.

As far as CAIRO, C stands for computer, O stands for outlook.  That’s all I’ve settled on so far.

[80] Is it just this season I’ve been watching gameday?  I recall that the nominal zone came and went…

Certainly will be interesting to see what the data looks like next season.  Also this year in the postseason.

He observes everything that he watches, but he can’t watch everything.  After all, he’s only human, unlike the Clay-bot for instance.

(From the SI article:) “Rivera has such a supple wrist”

He’s a pinball wizard.

Computerized outlook into results overall.

Is it just this season I’ve been watching gameday?

Is this question actual, rhetorical, sarcastic, or all of the above?

I still don’t know why the Yankees are thinking of taking the longer series.  Against Detroit especially, I like Joba, or even Gaudin against their lineup, much better than robertson against ours.  I know they’ve hit E jackson pretty well recently, but he still scares me off his several dominant starts a couple of years back.

Is this question actual, rhetorical, sarcastic, or all of the above?

He’s observed so much his mind is starting to dump old data.  I think he needs some upgraded storage.

Earlier there was some discussion again about trading for A Dunn. As good as that sounds don’t you think Swisher is the same kind of player? He will no doubt improve his HR stroke next year at home. He and Dunn may be too many K’s in one lineup IMO.

As to Gardner vs Melky. I’d keep them both with the expectation that an injury or a cold streak by either gives playing time to the other.  If they don’t get a better leftfielder such as Holiday, the liklihood is that if Damon has to play the field the chance of injury being a factor grows as Damon gets older strenthening the case for keeping both of these guys.

As to the playoffs, I would keep Marte in the pen with Coke for dealing with the Granderson, Guillen types-or Kubel, Mauers.  Bruney’s FB looked mighty good last night didn’t it?

[89] Barring that one-game playoff for the central title, you’re going to see Verlander and Jackson twice anyway.  The only difference is that one of them will be on short rest once.

And again, if the Tigers need to pitch Verlander on Sunday, then you have to take the longer series because there’s no way that he’s going to pitch the opening game on just two days rest.  But he lines up to start games two and five on regular rest with either schedule.

Either way, the choice isn’t between Chamberlain vs Robertson and Sabathia vs Verlander or Jackson.  It’s between Chamberlain or Sabathia on short rest vs Verlander or Jackson on short rest.

Great work SG.

Can I choose Yanks in 3 so they only face those guys once?

Taking the longer series against Detroit is smart, IMHO. Jackson is not pitching great.

“Either way, the choice isn’t between Chamberlain vs Robertson and Sabathia vs Verlander or Jackson.  It’s between Chamberlain or Sabathia on short rest vs Verlander or Jackson on short rest. “

Wait.  I’m not sure if I understand you.  If Verlander doesn’t need to pitch Sunday, Series A breaks down:

Wed CC/Verlander Fri Pettitte/Jackson Sun AJ/Porcello Mon CC/Verlander Wed Pettitte/Jackson All on full rest.  The Yankees may swap AJ and Andy, but I’d rather have Andy twice.

Series B would be:  Thurs CC/Verlander Fri Pettitte/Jackson Sun AJ/Porcello.  Then Mon the Yankees could use either Joba, or CC on short rest.  Detroit could use Robertson, or Verlander on short rest.  Wed is CC or Pettitte/Verlander or Jackson, all on full rest (depending on the Game 4 decsions).

I like B better.  If you go short rest, I like CC on short rest MUCH better the Verlander.  He has the experience, and Verlander has just had a string of 130 pitch starts.  I like Joba more than Robertson.

If the Yankees are up 2-1, I can send Joba out there, who just might be brilliant, with CC in reserve for game 5 (or game 1 ALCS) and force the Tigers to throw a weary Verlander on short rest.  If I’m down 2-1, send out CC.  He’s done it before.

[93]

Bingo.  That’s the answer.

[88] Thinking out loud.

Re: CAIRO projections.  Way to go, SG.