Friday, October 9, 2009
Twins (87-76) @ Yankees (103-59), Friday, October 9, 2009, 6:07 PM ET **Game Chatter**
Lineups
Minnesota Twins
Denard Span, RF (.312/.387/.417, 3.9 WAR)
Orlando Cabrera, SS (.283/.313/.385, 0.2 WAR)
Joe Mauer, C (.364/.442/.586, 6.9 WAR)
Jason Kubel, DH (.300/.369/.535, 2.7 WAR)
Michael Cuddyer, 1B (.276/.342/.520, 1.3 WAR)
Delmon Young, LF (.285/.307/.428, -0.8 WAR)
Carlos Gomez, CF (.227/.280/.335, 0.3 WAR)
Matt Tolbert, 3B (.228/.288/.306, -0.4 WAR)
Nick Punto, 2B (.228/.326/.285, 0.8 WAR)
Total, (.287/.349/.441, 14.9 WAR)
New York Yankees
Derek Jeter, SS (.334/.404/.465, 5.7 WAR)
Johnny Damon, LF (.282/.364/.489, 3.1 WAR)
Mark Teixeira, 1B (.292/.383/.565, 4.7 WAR)
Alex Rodriguez, 3B (.286/.402/.532, 3.5 WAR)
Hideki Matsui, DH (.274/.366/.509, 1.9 WAR)
Nick Swisher, LF (.249/.369/.498, 3.0 WAR)
Robinson Cano, 2B (.320/.352/.520, 3.5 WAR)
Melky Cabrera, CF (.274/.333/.416, 0.9 WAR)
Jose Molina, C (.217/.290/.268, -0.7 WAR)
Total, (.289/.370/.493, 25.6 WAR)
Yankee Win Probability: 61.7%
A lot of people are not happy about Jose Molina getting the start over Jorge Posada in tonight’s game, but is it really that big of a deal? If we assume there’s no real statistical impact on Burnett based on who his catcher is, we can compare a lineup with Posada against today’s lineup featuring Molina and see what the difference is.
With Posada
In terms of the impact to the overall lineup, with Posada playing and batting sixth, the Yankees would project to hit .285/.366/.476 and bat 43 times against an average pitcher. By linear weights, that would be worth around 6.4 batting runs. Assuming everyone plays all nine innings, the defense would be -.0667 runs worse than average. Assuming the pitching usage goes something like Burnett for six, Marte and/or Coke for one, Hughes for one, and then Mo for one, the Yankees would project to allow 4.24 runs in the game against an average team.
Runs scored: 6.4
Pitching: 4.24
Defense = -0.0667
Plugging that into Pythagenpat gives us a neutral field winning percentage of .691.
With Molina
Instead, with tonight’s lineup the Yankees would project to hit .278/.354/.457 and bat 42 times. That would be worth 6.0 batting runs.
Again, assuming everyone plays all nine innings, the defense would now be -.0046 runs worse than average due to the upgrade from Molina to Posada defensively. We’ll assume the exact same pitching usage and efficacy.
Runs scored: 6.0
Pitching: 4.24
Defense = -0.0046
Plugging that into Pythagenpat gives us a neutral field winning percentage of .659.
Using those winning percentages plugged into log 5 to estimate win probabilities versus tonight’s Twins lineup and pitching and adjusting for home field advantage tells us:
Win Probability With Posada: 64.3%
Win Probability With Molina: 61.7%
So there is an impact, but it’s small. Given the margin of error we’re dealing with here in projecting offense, defense and pitching, it’s probably not even statistically significant. This doesn’t factor in the fact that Posada would likely pinch-hit for Molina late in the game if Molina’s spot comes up in a crucial situation or that Burnett would pitch better with Molina.
Obviously, the key to this game is Burnett. He faced the Twins twice this year and had a 2.77 ERA against them, but he didn’t really pitch that well. He walked 10 in 13 innings while only striking out nine. Hiis peripherals against the Twins would yield a FIP of 4.12. He also allowed no HRs against them despite allowing 19 fly balls. Burnett’s HR/FB ratio is 10.3% over his career and in 2009 he was at 10.8%, which means he probably should have yielded a couple of HRs, aka an xFIP of 6.21. Of course, we generally don’t want to try and draw too much distinction from data at the game level due the small sample size.
If the Yankees win this game, their odds of advancing to the ALCS go from 82.1% to 93.5%. If they lose, their odds drop to 65.9%. That’s a big swing. It’s a big enough swing that we have to acknowledge the importance of this game.
The weather forecast for tonight isn’t very encouraging, although Accuweather seems to think it’ll clear up late (around 11 pm), so they may delay the game for a few hours and shoot to get it in based on what appears to be a window between 11 PM and 5 AM.
Go Yankees.
Comments
Wednesday’s win was “relief” not joy. Tonight’s game is going to be big.
I promise to come back from this 1-5, not 0-6.
Hemp forecast for tonight is oppressive.
I asked this in the previous thread right before noticing that a new one had been posted:
Posted at 4:03 pm by SG / 1 Comment | - (3)
Does anyone know what the last number means? That (3).
I also chimed in with my own two cents of appreciation for SG and the rest of the RLYW community. Thanks for a great year so far, and let’s hope for some heavy statpadding by Arod in the weeks to come!
Is it unique viewers of the post?
Rain, rain, go away…
Win Probability With Posada: 64.3%
Win Probability With Molina: 61.7%
64.3% > 61.7%
And there’s my in-depth statistical analysis.
“64.3% > 61.7% “
Yeah that kind of does it for me too.
I’ve been searching everywhere for a reliable hemp forecast, sick of the beat stuff.
Interesting forecast. Weather.com thinks it will be OK until 11 pm and then start raining.
Weathermen are like umpires. So consistently wrong but somehow keep their jobs.
Waiting for the game to start sucks.
AJ needs to assert his will.
[10] - I was on a week long bike ride in upstate NY a couple of years ago, and we were a little worried about the weather one of the days. We called my uncle, who’s a meteorologist for a major airline. He told us that we should be fine where we were for the whole day, maybe some drizzle. Needless to say, riding a bike through 8 hours of solid, bone-drenching rain was not too much fun. Still bring that up every time I see him.
[13] Well, if you were riding your bike, then presumably you did not stay where you were when you called him. So how do you know the weather wouldn’t have been fine there?
[12] Yes, but does he need to announce his presence with authority?
I definitely don’t bike fast enough to be in a materially different place at the end of the day than when I started.
So, first pitch on time?
[2]
Very nice, Ivy.
[6, 7]
Well, we could add this:
AJ with Mo catching = AJ + Po catching + ? (given that a survey of his performance with the two catchers is inconclusive).
The total knowable distinction appears to equal the result of the equation “64.3% - 61.7%,” in favor of Po catching.
Waiting for the game to start sucks.
And you don’t feel all that better, right?
But what’s the point of a week long bike ride if you aren’t covering at least some ground? And seriously, my office is six miles from my home. Torrential rain at one site without a drop at the other is a not infrequent occurrence.
Skies look really nice on the TBS broadcast. Are they using old footage from yesterday?
TBS just said AJ has a slider. Who have I been watching all year?
See, Vill, they DO notice!
[20] It was Ron Darling, then he corrected himself and said “slurve” which I think is code for “he throws something offspeed, but I haven’t seen him pitch all year, so let’s combine two breaking balls”.
Anyways, Darling also did a lot of cocaine in the mid-80s with Gooden and Strawberry, so take everything he saw with a grain of coke.
So I am currently underfed and underslept, and am therefore crabby already, even more so if Burnett doesn’t pitch well. So pitch well, AJ, and raise my mood.
[22] don’t they have a scouting report that all they have to do is read?
Just called it a slider again.
So, first pitch on time?
6:07 PM EST
What’s Craig Sager’s deal? I mean, seriously. What’s going on with that guy?
God, that must smart like no other.
I’m so glad the sync function is working on the postseason.tv thing. Oh, wait.
[27]?
Well, I could live without walking Mauer. But you could do far worse with him up there.
[28]
Actually, I think it’s kind of cool that it’s out of sync. Allows you to actually see each thing twice, from different angles.
Molina getting smacked on the chest, that must be like getting shot with a vest on feels like.
The problem is the window with the pitch is behind the result of the pitch.
Pitched around Mauer?
Sweet
No, Caray. That was not a slider.
I doubt any of you are seeing this commercial, but it looks like a bunch of rednecks playing horseshoes with slingshots.
Man, I hate these bastardized Beatles songs. Ruining the classics.. sweet.
Just a comment that it’s really cool to have the gd link atop chatters, must save like 100*60 s integrated minimum.
[26] He thinks he’s on this show.
Clay, select each of the windows and choose the other view and you’ll reverse the ‘lag.’
[41] Thanks, I’ve got it synced up now.
Teix 6 career ABs against Blackburn = “if there is a man who has DESTROYED Blackburn its Teix,” says Chip.
WOE looms!!
Teix might want to change his approach.
Okay, the “mid home-plate” camera guy was scanning the crowd, and he totally just stopped on this one girl with a low-cut shirt for an extended amount of time. Then he goes to Trump for a bit, and now it’s back to some other good looking girl in a pink hat. It’s kind of funny.
Michael Kay probably paid off that cameraman.
And now Chip Caray just sited the Yankees team HR numbers as the number of HR hit at OYS last season versus NYS this season.
D Yound didn’t look too good in that AB.
I always heard A.J. throws a curve.
WTF IS WITH ALL THIS SLIDER SHIT!??!?
D. Young.
I figured by this inning they’d have it down that it’s not a slider. Wishful thinking on my part.
WTF IS WITH ALL THIS SLIDER SHIT!??!?
What, do you expect Chip Caray to know the actual pitches AJ throws? Its not like Chip is being paid to do so. WAIT, WHAT?
Gomez seems like an odd guy to run with if the hope is staying out of the DP. Obviously you’d want the lead runner ahead, but what’s the chance he hits into one anyway?
Did the Twins really spend a lot of blood and guts energy scoring on a passed ball?
Over/under on number of weekly wedgies Chip received as a kid. I say four.
all this garbage about how the Yankees are Mystique and Aura and the Twins are Heart and Gristle is so ridiculous. I can’t believe anyone above 8th grade actually thinks it’s a legit storyline.
I could go for an A-bomb.
2ks 3 GBs. Encouraging KPI.
[55] Yes, because they are scrappy, play the game the right way, and are a team of ballplayers. The Yankees tied the game because of the wind-tunnel, launching pad, disgrace that is NYS. The Twins are above taking advantage of such things.
[58] ARod, Blackburn, Hiroshima, and Nagasaki disagree with you.
I could go for an H-bomb.
i have a feeling that before the post season is over Nick Swisher is going to become a True Yankee.
They put number of championships on the backs of baseball cards now, Ron Darling?
Darling thinks Matsui will be a “part time everyday player”. Whatever that is.
@65 I believe that’s known as a DH.
[65] Only play the first couple innings, but do so in all 162 games?
That was a terrible call. Jesus.
Apparently, in this series if you want to get a called strike three it’s best to just throw something outside the zone.
Well, you can officially add Scott Proctor to the list of pitching arms that Joe Torre has destroyed.
i have a feeling that before the post season is over Nick Swisher is going to become a True Yankee.
I think his relief appearance in Tampa Bay did it.
Who is this umpire? What an erratic strike zone.
Ahh, Chuck Merriweather. Some BS there.
Also, Darling apparently doesn’t know how to check facts:
“Swisher was mostly DH and first baseman for the White Sox, so he didn’t play the field for a few years.”
1. Swisher played for White Sox for one freaking year.
2. He played 790.1 innings of OF, including 535.1 innings of CF.
3. He played 1 game at DH. ONE!!!!!11111!!!1!11
Darling: “Remember, Swisher was primarily a DH for the White Sox”
Nick Swisher games at DH for White Sox: 0
Did no one read the scouting report on Punto? Throw strikes!
Oh, sweet Christ. Come on!
Walking Nick Punto is downright idiotic.
Maybe Darling is doing some sort of meta-comedy routine here.
BBRef has zero. Either way. “Primarily”
What is this Yankee fascination with putting Nick Punto on base?
Does Nick Punto have some sort of cloaking device that makes opposing pitchers forget the fact that he’s NICK PUNTO?!
It’s. Nick. Punto.
Pitching around Punto?
That replay was awfully close. I think we wuz robbed.
Blown
That was fucking OUT!
Let’s see ESPN make a big deal out of this.
Sam, the problem isn’t Darling or Carey’s willful ignorance.
It’s willful ignorance on the part of the producers or whoever it is that selects the broadcasting “talent”.
This is the result of at least two layers of incompetence.
it may be nick punto, but it’s also A.J. Burnett.
Span is out if he’s wearing a Yankee uniform.
[80] Makes Nick Punto look like Barry Bonds.
for those watching, how does Burnett look out there?
I would like to meet the person who thinks Caray is good at his job.
Damon is so terrifying out there.
What is this Yankee fascination with putting Nick Punto on base?
Pity?
Span is out if he’s wearing a Yankee uniform.
Agreed.
I would like to meet the person who thinks Caray is good at his job.
You’ll need a press pass and a Ron Darling mask.
That was bang-bang at first, I’m not going to bitch about those. It’s nothing compared to some of the calls in the Sox game, which were just laughable.
Nick Punto’s intangibles include a Special Magic Pony Strike Zone™
At least the Yankees were the beneficiary of this BS strike zone on the outside corner.
4k 4GB the KPI continue to look good.
The Swisher thing is hilarious.
I always thought Darling was pretty good.
Perhaps there is no such thing as a good announcer?
Ah, but we have Cone and Singleton to disprove that.
I seem to read something like this about Punto getting walked in every single Twins game I see (not that there have been too many of those)... he must be walking and awful lot lately.
Its amazing how much better YES is then TBS at broadcasting baseball.
Please show a very slow motion replay of that double play attempt for the love of god.
Also strike three to Mauer was BS.
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