His called strike percentage on fastballs (30 percent) is certainly higher than average, and so it is significantly higher than non-fastballs. He probably should swing at more fastball strikes.

I’m more intrigued that he’s getting pounded by sliders despite seeming to handle them very well.

I think we need to distinguish between fastballs up and down in the zone. Based purely on observation, he seems to have trouble handling fastballs up in the zone, and the data above (with the sample size caveats you mentioned) indicates that his wOBA is higher v. sinkers. Is there a way to breakdown Pitch Fx data to support or rebut that?

So then the question becomes, can swingng at a higher percentage of fastballs improve those numbers?

We’re already at SSS, so this would go even smaller.  And potentially get messy.  But how does he do by count.  More generally, how does he do when there are two-strikes vs. not two strikes, and then the same but different pitch types (or even just fastballs)?  I can look at BBRef and see that he had a .664 OPS w/ two strikes, and 151 of his 284 PA went to two strikes.  Quick guestimate is OPS around .770 if less than two strikes.  Also, full count he was .897 OPS in 48 PA, so he’s probably well under .600 in the other 103 PA.

I mean, that’s not a great surprise, right?  You can’t strike out if you don’t have two strikes.  But I’d be curious if he’s swinging at a FB and there are less than two strikes, how do his numbers look?  I think what Gardner is trying to get at is he lets hittable pitches go by b/c in the minors he could wait for a better pitch, that he could drive.  Probably not for a HR, but into the gap for an XBH.  In the majors, that’s tougher to do, b/c the quality of pitches is better.  So maybe now instead of having to swing at a 1-2 FB in on the hands (but too close to take) and hitting a weak GB to the right side, he’ll take a FB away and slap it to LF and “settle” for a single.  At least, that sounds like the plan, whether it works or not…

Boy I mangled the English language in that post, but I think I got my point through…

Here I always thought the TS stood for “True Starter”

He does seem to see a lot of fastball, somewhere in the area of 66% so far in his career

How does that compare to the average hitter?  After all, most pitchers do throw mostly fastballs.

His called strike percentage on fastballs (30 percent) is certainly higher than average.

I wonder how many of those are called first-pitch strikes.  Seems to me that if the scouting report says that a guy is too passive, pitchers will throw a lot of get-ahead fastballs.  Hammering that grooved first-pitch fastball a few times could potentially make a big difference in how the league approaches a hitter, and you’ll get to a lot more hitters counts if pitchers are being more careful on the first pitch.

[2]

Couldn’t this be a platoon issue?  I’d imagine LHP would throw him a lot of sliders, and maybe his good numbers come mainly from right-handed sliders?

Think about it—it seems most lefty relievers are fastball/slider

I don’t know if I would call ~10% sliders getting pounded.  It looks like the league average would be about 15%.

I originally meant in the sense that sliders are usually off the plate and he is seeing an awful lot of sliders for strikes.

Even if league average is 15% he does see more sliders than any other non-fastball pitch - something I wouldn’t expect if he faces a lot of RHs as [8] was suggesting (I think?).

“I think we need to distinguish between fastballs up and down in the zone. Based purely on observation, he seems to have trouble handling fastballs up in the zone, and the data above (with the sample size caveats you mentioned) indicates that his wOBA is higher v. sinkers. Is there a way to breakdown Pitch Fx data to support or rebut that?”

This would jive with the idea that he’d be better off hitting more GB and letting his speed get him on base, too.  As for high fastballs, 15% of his flyballs were popups, and I believe the league average is usually around 10%. 

Obviously the best would be for him to hit more LD, but he did have a slightly higher OPS on GB than FB, which I don’t think is normal.  For a guy with almost no power, he seems to have a pretty pronounced uppercut that I’d like to see Long work on eliminating.

[10], Oh. I see what you mean.  I can’t find these sorts of splits anywhere, so I can’t even guess what the league average is. (I got the 15% sliders because on fangraphs teams ranged from ~12-18%)

“I originally meant in the sense that sliders are usually off the plate and he is seeing an awful lot of sliders for strikes.”

Maybe he’s not getting calls.  I certainly had that impression, though I’m inclined to be biased.

[13] Agreed on both counts!  I suppose we could use pitch-f/x data to determine that…

[13, 14] I think that not getting calls is probably part of it, but I think that not getting calls is par for the course when you’re a rookie (especially a not particularly highly touted one).  So I think a lot of things will need to work in synergy to get him where he’d like to be as a hitter.  If he can hit for a higher average as a result of getting rid of the uppercut and a being a little more aggressive early in the count, then pitchers will start being more careful early in the count.  So maybe he won’t be behind in the count as much as he seemed to be last year.  And umpires might cut him a little more slack on a 2-2 slider just off the plate than they probably would have on an 0-2 pitch in the same place.

Is there a way to breakdown Pitch Fx data to support or rebut that?

Yeah, looks like the following fields would help us determine that.

sz_top, sz_bottom: a line of constant z (in ft) defining the lower and upper limits, respectively, of the strike zone. That is, these are the height above home plate of the top and bottom of the strike zone. Currently, these parameters are set for each batter by the operator by visually observing the image from the center-field camera.

p_x, p_z: location of pitch in the x and z coordinates, respectively, as it crosses the front of home plate, in units of ft.

I’ll see what I have to do parse that.

How does that compare to the average hitter?  After all, most pitchers do throw mostly fastballs.

According to this article, looks like it breaks down as 59% fastballs, 17% sliders, 12% curves, and 11% changeups.  The articles is couple of years old, but I don’t think there’s any reason to assume that pitching patterns have changed significantly since then.

Maybe he’s not getting calls.

Delmon Young had a theory on how to solve that, but all it ended up doing was getting him a 50 game suspension.

Hammering that grooved first-pitch fastball a few times could potentially make a big difference in how the league approaches a hitter, and you’ll get to a lot more hitters counts if pitchers are being more careful on the first pitch.

Ted Williams was pretty famous for never swinging at the first pitch.. I think he let it go something like 95% of the time.  I’m recalling a quote where he claims he was surprised about how many times he got lucky when swinging at the first pitch to keep pitcher’s honest and stroked a double or a HR on several occasions when his intentions were just to keep the pitchers honest. That seems to be an effective plan to get yourself into a good count, huh? Almost never swing at the first pitch, but when you do, put one in the seats. This may or may not help Brett Gardner out.

[18] Some Yankees in recent years I can think of doing that.  Mattingly for a couple of years - I’m thinking early 90’s - never-ever swung at the first pitch.  Eventually he started to b/c he wasn’t good enough any more to start every PA down 0-1 in the count.  More recently, Giambi rarely swung at the first pitch.

You don’t need to put one in the seats, you just need to make the pitcher pay.  Hell if Gardner is on first most pitchers won’t like that, and if he’s on 2nd you’re an infield single away from giving up a run.  So sure, if he’s slapping some singles to LF and some doubles in the gaps, pitchers will be more selective.

The biggest thing I like - and one of the reasons I think Gardner improves his second time through a league - is he seems to always recognize he needs to improve, and puts together a plan to improve on those things.  It may not turn out to be the *right* plan, but his ideas seem logical and well-reasoned.

[19] Wade Boggs as well. He actually served as a model of patient hitting for a number of Yankees.

[20] I will never forget that bases loaded walk Boggs worked in extra innings of game 4 to break the tie in the 96 WS. It was so epic, by the end of that series he thought he was a centaur.