I want Hughes to pitch now God Damnit. This team has stopped being fun to watch. I don’t care how Abreu or Giambi or Pettitte or Ponson or Pavano or I-rod perform. I’m almost sick of them. They will contribute nothing to the team next year. I get starting the schmucks who have no replacements or will net draft picks, but really, get Ponson the fuck out of the rotation, it’s not fun to watch, pitch Aceves until Hughes and Kennedy are done with the playoffs. Stop playing Damon, Matsui and Abreu everyday and get the two shitty CFers out there. I’d rather see Miranda play than Giambi too, but I know that’s not going to fucking happen. This team is really starting to irritate me by being so shortsighted and stubborn and stupid.

I agree regarding Ponson/Pavano, but I think there’s some potential gain in value by letting most of the other vets play and get their #s up, in either increasing the likelihood they are attractive to other teams as FA (Abreu, Giambi) or increasing their potential trade value (Damon, Matsui).  I would like to see more Gardner, but have no interest in seeing Melky anymore.

At least they got Aceves into the rotation, and I think we’ll see Hughes once the minor league postseason is over.  But there is no way that keeping Ponson in the rotation serves any use, either this season or next.  It’s just stupid.

but I think there’s some potential gain in value by letting most of the other vets play and get their #s up, in either increasing the likelihood they are attractive to other teams as FA (Abreu, Giambi) or increasing their potential trade value (Damon, Matsui).

Yeah, there is, but it’s so damn hard to root for. Combine this weekend with the Big East completely shitting the bed (Fuck you Bill Stewart,Dave Wannested and Greg Schiano) in the first two weeks of the season and sports are essentially dead to me until spring. Watching the younger guys play is really all I have to look forward to until then.

Cowboy, stop holding back!  Let us know how you really feel!

I was excited to root for Moose to win 20.  Now looks like even that’s gone up in smoke.  Bastards.  Bring up Hughes, damnit!!!

Bring up Hughes, damnit!!!

I’ll admit to a bit of personal interest, but at this point it probably makes more sense to let Hughes pitch once more in AAA.  Get Scranton a championship, let Hughes pitch in a game with some meaning.  After that, there is no reason not to bring him up to NY.  But it’s not like at this point Hughes is going to make a difference in the Yankees making the post-season or not.  Ditto with Kennedy.

at this point it probably makes more sense to let Hughes pitch once more in AAA

Oh, absolutely. In my anger, I didn’t qualify my demands.  I just hope they don’t decide to simply shut him down until AzFL begins.

I just hope they don’t decide to simply shut him down until AzFL begins.

As long as he comes through his next start OK, I doubt they will.  Who knows anymore though?

I think its pretty clear that they want him to get more innings and teams are generally more likely to pull pitchers from the AZ FL than they are the end of minor leagues to limit innings.  1) Because the prefer the continuity and 2) because it gives the pitcher more rest before the start of next season, especially for those who are showing up in spring training.

SOME ACTUAL GOOD NEWS:

MARIANO RIVERA HAS SURPASSED 1000IP

HIS BASEBALL REFERENCE PAGE NOW SHOWS THIS

Adjusted ERA+
Act-198-1
Car-198-1

ALL CAPS LOCKED

ALL HAIL MO

p.s. nice job by hughes

ml242, you’re kind of late to that party.

ml242, you’re kind of late to that party.

Shhhh.  He still thinks the Yankees are within a game or two out of a playoff spot.  Why spoil the fantasy?

This season was such a bust.  Although, aside from not making the playoffs, it kinda resembled the last few seasons.  Injuries, mysterious offensive lulls and a patchwork of pitching.
I would just love it if the Yankees could make it through next season with 4/5ths of their original starting rotation intact.  Even 3/5ths would be a nice change of pace.

SG, do you think at some point you could run the numbers on what the team would look like replacing Giambi with Teixeira and subbing a full season of Nady for Abreu? Provided they can get at least average production out of 2b and C?  Maybe as an offseason project…

do you think at some point you could run the numbers on what the team would look like replacing Giambi with Teixeira and subbing a full season of Nady for Abreu? Provided they can get at least average production out of 2b and C?  Maybe as an offseason project…

Yeah, I can do that, although I’ll probably wait until after this season ends.  I know yup asked about a ‘what happened to the offense’ post too a while back and I’ve been meaning to get to that at some point soon as well.

So, SG, over the course the last month, Xavier Nady has turned from the slugging powerhouse the Yankees traded for into a .750 OPS hitter, and over the last two weeks into someone vaguely resembling Melky Cabrera.  Going into next season, if Nady has a 110 OPS+ or so, how do you think that impacts the offense?  I don’t think that even giving oodles of money and years to Teixeira (or that the Yankees somehow land Manny Ramirez on a 4-year or less deal) will make this team a 750+ run offense (and with a possible defensive OF of Ramirez/Damon/Nady, Cashman better get to work cloning CMW).

I’m trying to remain optimistic for next season, but just spending $200 million on free agents doesn’t inspire much.  I’m not much of a fan of that process of team-building, and banking on the mid-30s hitters suddenly regaining their age-28 form doesn’t appeal to my rational side.

Though, the pitching staff looks to be in good shape with maybe the addition of single FA pitcher.

Kewl, thanks.

By the way, while some people “remain unimpressed by Phil Huggies,” I think that having the following line against the team that led the league in most offensive categories:

3G, 18IP, 10H, 3ER, 3BB, 17K

including a brilliant playoff start, is pretty impressive.  But that’s just me.

ChrisS, I haven’t crunched all the numbers, but I can tell you that Teixeira looks like at least a one win upgrade on Giambi (offense plus defense).  I don’t have my projection tools in front of me but I’d think Nady probably projects to be around .350/.500 hitter next year.  That’s worth about 99 runs over 650 PA.  Abreu’s YTD performance would be worth about the same on offense.  The big difference between the two is defense.  Abreu’s been a -22 defender this year.  Nady’s typically been about average, this year a little less.  If Nady’s a -5 defender, that’s a 1.5 win upgrade over Abreu 2008.

The biggest problem on offense has been losing Posada’s bat at catcher.  It’s been at least a fifty run offensive downgrade.  Projecting the 2009 Yankees is going to be tricky until we know if Posada can play catcher at all.  I’d say it’s at least 50/50 that he can’t.

ml242, you’re kind of late to that party.

I’d like to think that on July 30th I was still focused on the standings and not individual accomplishments. What do I look like, some sort of stat padding freak?

P.S. 65 posts to 500!!!

Out running yesterday and listening to Suzie and Serling describing how bad yesterday’s Mariner’s pitcher has been lately and how bad his fastball is.  Foolishly I thought at least we’ll beat up on this guy and get Moose an easy win.  You can never go broke underestimating the WOEfulness of the Yankee’s offense.

Thanks, SG.  It’ll be an interesting off-season that’s for sure.  I’m hesitant about Nady’s potential OBP - it seems to be BA-driven with a pretty ugly K:BB ratio.  The defense thing is spot-on though and he is cheaper than Abreu for next year.  I’ll be honest, I thought it was a bad trade at the time and nothing has really changed my opinion on that yet.

I’d say it’s at least 50/50 that he can’t.

I know old trope about not worrying about blocking guys in the future, but I think this is a valid concern for the Yankees spending large on Teixeira.  There’s only two non-defense centric positions on the team and the Yankees have Posada signed through 2011, Jeter through 2011, and A-Rod (maybe he can play 3B until he’s 38 or so) into perpetuity.  Add in future 1B Jesus Montero and Damon/Matsui/Nady next year and there’s a recipe for a traffic jam now and later.  And a less than stellar defensive OF.

Burrell isn’t a defense-first guy, but I almost think that the Yankees would be better off signing him, moving Damon to 1B, Matsui to DH than signing Teixeira to an astronomical deal.

Some decisions will be necessary with respect to the vets. I go back and forth on Abreu. His defense is so poor it really irritates me but his ability to get on base is hard to replace and he is a good rbi guy. He probably has a couple of years in him offensively and really how confident is the team in finding a sure fire replacement?  Nady will be around and could be a decent replacement assuming they keep both Damon and Matsui to play left. Both those guys have a year left and are suspect in terms of health and Matsui probably isn’t a viable option other than for a spot start.

The more I think about it we let Jason G. leave and trade Matsui.  I would alternate Damon and Nady between left and d/h and keep Abreu for rf for one more contract as long as it is two years max.  I would try hard for Texiera unless someone can tell me of another option where we can have an everyday player that provides BOTH offense and defense everyday.

Centerfield well, not a pretty solution, but I would return Melky out there to have some good defense between Abreu and Damon.  If he doesn’t cut it by midyear hopefully you give Jackson a chance assuming he does reasonably well at AAA. I’m not sure he’s a lock yet myself. I think his AA year was decent but not great for that level.  To date his minor league stats are remincient of Melky’s years down there but that doesn’t mean he won’t improve.

Pitching will be better with Wang and Joba healthy-hopefully. I think you try hard for CC.  We need a lefty power pitcher in the rotation for the coming years and none seem to be coming in the minors. I think Hughes should have at least one start in the bigs before the season ends. If he could get a good performance in it might really be a postive going forward. It was encouraging to see him do well the other night but I’m still worried about his injury prone history. He still needs another full shot next year.

Posada is a big question. I think he will be a hitter again but like most of you how long if ever will it be when he can slow down stolen base attempts? Will the arm return so that he can be the primary catcher. I don’t like him at first base and the possiblity that he may have to d/h will be another reason to trim Matsui and Giambi.

Finally as to payroll, I don’t lose any sleep on it as its Steinbrenner money and the cost of tickets likely won’t be rolled back even if the payroll is trimmed. I realize it can stymie flexibility but this team needs to be careful to not turn over the complete inventory of vets too soon or it will relegated to many years of mediocrity. I don’t like what has happened to Atlanta.

Good day for Jeter yesterday. Finally reached the 1000 rbi mark and his career totals are looking very rounded these days.  If he quit now his stats would easily take him to the Hall. That probably would have been true several years ago, but now the stats look very nice.

What does the 1b FA market look like for 2009?

What does the 1b FA market look like for 2009?

For this year and next:

First basemen
Rich Aurilia (37)
Hank Blalock (28) - $6.2MM club option for ‘09 with a $0.25MM buyout
Sean Casey (34)
Tony Clark (37)
Carlos Delgado (37) - $12MM club option for ‘09 with a $4MM buyout (unlikely to vest)
Nomar Garciaparra (35)
Jason Giambi (38) - $22MM club option for ‘09 with a $5MM buyout
Wes Helms (33) - $3.75MM club option for ‘09 with a $0.75MM buyout
Eric Hinske (31)
Doug Mientkiewicz (35)
Kevin Millar (37)
Richie Sexson (34)
Mark Teixeira (29)
Daryle Ward (34)

Player Club
First Basemen
Carlos Delgado NYM
Jason Giambi NYY
Ross Gload * KC
Wes Helms FLA
Aubrey Huff BAL
Nick Johnson WAS
Adam LaRoche PIT
Robb Quinlan LAA
Matt Stairs TOR

Some of the guys with options are listed twice. I’ve said it a few times, I think it would be an awful decision for the Yanks to not sign a player like Teixeira, considering his age and ability. Not Beltran level awful, but close.

Xavier Nady has turned from the slugging powerhouse the Yankees traded for into a .750 OPS hitter

Nady has an OPS+ of 127 for the Yankees.  That’s pretty damned good.  If you want to focus on a two week period, I’m sure I can find two weeks over the last five years where Pujols was one of the worst hitters in baseball.

I’d say it’s at least 50/50 that he can’t.

Posada is going into Spring Training as the starting catcher.  I don’t think there’s any getting around that.  If he can just throw out 20% of baserunners, and his bat at all resembles his career, he’ll be fine.

What does the 1b FA market look like for 2009?

You mean after the 2009 season?  I hear some guy named Giambi may be available…other than that, I’m not sure.

I think it would be an awful decision for the Yanks to not sign a player like Teixeira, considering his age and ability

I agree in principle.  It’s the details that could doom it.  E.g. would you be willing to give him a 12yr/360 million$ contract?  Not that I think it would come to that, but…

E.g. would you be willing to give him a 12yr/360 million$ contract?

Well, no one would be, so that’s not a concern. The way I see it, if any other team can afford to give Tex a certain amount of money and years, then the Yanks can afford to match or top it. As long as the Yanks don’t outbid their closest competitor by 50 mil, I’ll be in favor of them signing him. They’re already bluffing about Miranda, Damon and Matsui being options at first next year, I don’t think they’re going to get hoodwinked like with A-rod. I’ll bet it’s more reasonable than the Giambi contract was at the time it was signed.

I’d rather they overspend in $$ than years.  How does a 5yr/$130M sound?

How does a 5yr/$130M sound?

Neither Boras nor Tex will go for it. The Yanks could give him an opt out clause though, say 4-6 years in. And actually prepare for it this time around instead of pretending like it’s a betrayal if he chooses to exercise it.

How does a 5yr/$130M sound?

It sounds ridiculous, frankly.  What’s the advantage of spending the money sooner than you have to?  Why would you offer 5/$130M to someone who would probably take 7/$140M?  IOW, what’s the difference between overpaying up front in an effort to get the player to sign for a shorter term, and just giving him as many years as he wants, and then just treating the sunk cost as a sunk cost?  If he’s worthless in year six or seven, eat the rest of the contract and replace him.

If he’s worthless in year six or seven, eat the rest of the contract and replace him

I don’t think it’s that easy.  Even the Yankees can’t afford to just throw $40-50M out the window. Haven’t we seen enough back-loaded overly long contracts by now?  I think it’s better to overpay in $$ short term rather than get stuck with an albatross in year 7.

Truly amazing, Phil *MIA* Hughes finally pitches a truly high quality game, and the usual suspects start dribbling all over themselves.

Ahhh, yes. One game, one game(!), and Phil Huggies is the next great thing, again. After two awful, injury plagued seasons. Makes sense though, great sample size and all that.

Ahhh, yes. One game, one game(!), and Phil Huggies is the next great thing, again.

So 2004-2006 never happened?  All those glowing scouting reports never happened?  All excitement for Hughes is based on a single performance?  That’s silly Don, and you know it.

After two awful, injury plagued seasons. Makes sense though, great sample size and all that.

Last year wasn’t awful.  Injury-plagued, yeah.  But not awful.

And I don’t think that 2008’s 22 inning MLB sample size is sufficient to write him off, although I will agree that it has been awful and injury-plagued.

You’re not going to replace Tex in year 6 or 7 of his contract unless he’s waiving his NTC and the Yanks are eating 19 of his 20 million dollars of his salary.  In other words, it’s not going to happen.

The best route would be to offer him an opt-out clause after the year the team thinks he will peak, from a offensive statistical standpoint.  Let him go, get the draft picks and get younger.  Use the money you save to get his replacement or if the replacement already exists, get some other players.

I do think the Yanks will have to overpay in terms of years and dollars - both Tex and CC might have other suitors willing to pay and CC has made it clear he enjoys the NL and the West Coast, which is a clear shot across the Yanks bow to bid agressively.

Even the Yankees can’t afford to just throw $40-50M out the window.

Point is that overpaying on a shorter contract is also throwing $40 or $5)M out the window.

There’s really no such thing as an albatross for a team with the Yankee’s revenues.  Again, as long as you’re willing to treat sunk costs like sunk costs.  Your suggestions amounts to the same thing, except that cost can’t be treated as anything other than sunk because the money is already gone.  What’s the practical difference between paying out an extra $20M over five years and owing the same guy $20M for the sixth year?  Two things, maybe: one is that the $20M is worth more to the team now and less to the player later; that’s why everyone backloads contracts in the first place.  The other possible issue is a roster spot, but that only matters if someone is being blocked.  Now, it’s very hard to argue that a specific prospect is going to be major league-ready in six years—anybody in your system now had better be ready sooner or it’s a mistake to count on him in the first place.  And it’s even harder to predict who might be available as a free agent (and worth signing) five or six years from now.  And again, those things only matter if you’re not willing to just cut the dead weight loose if need be.

After two awful, injury plagued seasons.

One of those seasons was actually quite good for a 20 year old rookie, even if it was injury plagued.  The guy still has a long road back, and I for one am not going to get too excited by one good minor league start.  It is however, clearly preferable to another poor minor league start.  At any rate, you don’t strengthen your argument by pretending that Hughes was “awful” in 2007.  He wasn’t.

You’re not going to replace Tex in year 6 or 7 of his contract unless he’s waiving his NTC and the Yanks are eating 19 of his 20 million dollars of his salary.  In other words, it’s not going to happen.

Still missing my point, which is that paying him the extra $20M in the first five years doesn’t save you anything.  It just costs you more if he winds up being worth having in year six or seven.

The best route would be to offer him an opt-out clause after the year the team thinks he will peak, from a offensive statistical standpoint.  Let him go, get the draft picks and get younger.

Of course, this ignores the fact that a player who falls off a cliff won’t exercise that opt-out clause, leaving you in the same boat you’d have been in with the seven year deal in the first place.

CC has made it clear he enjoys the NL and the West Coast, which is a clear shot across the Yanks bow to bid agressively.

Or maybe it’s an indication that he wants to play in the NL and on the west coast, making all the aggressive bidding in the world a waste of time.  I guess we’ll know some time in December.

If you want to focus on a two week period, I’m sure I can find two weeks over the last five years where Pujols was one of the worst hitters in baseball.

For the ten days after the trade, following a first half well above and beyond his career numbers, he hit 4 homeruns and had a 1.287 OPS.

Since then, he’s been steadily declining (over the last month) and he has a .753 OPS and an 4:1 K:BB.

A) it’s not just two weeks, B) comparing that to finding a bad streak in Pujol’s career isn’t analogous since Pujols has quite a career record of being one of the best hitters ever.  While Nady has a career record of being slightly above average.  My point is that I don’t think Nady can be relied on next year to hit like he did in the first half of this season and is more likely to hit like he always has.  Thus it might be foolish to think that he’s some kind of one-to-one replacement for Abreu’s bat.

SG — 2004-2006 happened, but are basically rendered meaningless in light of 2007-2008.

Cowboy -

I think Beltran has done pretty well for Los Mess. I kinda regret not wanting to sign him actually.

Above average offense
Above average defense
Stays healthy

it sucks to watch a guy like that take one down the pipe with the game on the line as he’s done a few times, but I think that’s soured people on him much more than his actual performance.

He’s saying that not signing Beltran was awful, and that a similar failure to sign Tex would be a similar folly, only not quite the same magnitude.

Again, as long as you’re willing to treat sunk costs like sunk costs.

I agree with your main point. But I think it’s far easier for a team, psychologically, to overpay up front than to just say fuck it to $40 million dollars to open up a roster spot after a guy becomes a net negative.  Say the Yankees sign Teixeira and he hits well enough for the first three years, has a injury plagued 4th year, in year 5 he’s got a OPS+ of 110 or so and the Yankees have a young hot-shot hitter for 1B and/or a trade/FA for the next big thing.  So, do you think that someone can tell the owner of the Yankees that player X will be better for the team and that they should cut the former MVP(hypothetically) Teixeira and eat all or most of $40 million (because he’s got a NTC or at that point is a 10/5 player)?  And it’ll be an easy sell because it’s a sunk cost?

2004-2006 happened, but are basically rendered meaningless in light of 2007-2008.

Well that’s wrong. First, objectively, stat projections are usually based on three years of data. At the very least, if nothing else matters, 2006 does. Second, 2007 does not, no matter how hard you want to try and make it, count as a data point against Hughes. Being a league average (well, better, but I’m not going to try and explain anything to complicated to you, you’ll twist it and use it dishonestly or disregard it) starting pitcher with a good K rate at 21 is supremely positive. Third, subjectively, the talent and the ceiling Hughes displayed in 04-06 absolutely does matter because none of his injuries are the kind to limit his ceiling. The ability, the pitches, the velocity, the command, that made Hughes a top, in fact, the top, pitching prospect in baseball, are still there and therefore, his ceiling is still there. I know you’re very proud of your nickname and your world view that you are right all of the time, but you should really stop saying things like this, you’re turning into a self parody (if you aren’t actually one already or just a troll trying to get a rise).

He’s saying that not signing Beltran was awful, and that a similar failure to sign Tex would be a similar folly, only not quite the same magnitude.

Yes, thank you. Beltran is routinely one of the ten best players in the NL. Not signing him was a truly terrible decision.

Of course, this ignores the fact that a player who falls off a cliff won’t exercise that opt-out clause, leaving you in the same boat you’d have been in with the seven year deal in the first place.

That’s true but at least with an opt-out the Yanks get a possibility to have a player leave at his peak and save the team the backloaded, less desirable part of the contract.

Or maybe it’s an indication that he wants to play in the NL and on the west coast, making all the aggressive bidding in the world a waste of time.  I guess we’ll know some time in December.

Of course.  CC might be just telegraphing his desires and intentions, but it also means if the Yanks want him, they’ll have to pay him enough to forget the West Coast and the NL.  I can’t imagine CC or any free agent ignoring any overtures from the Yankees.  Saying you really want to play in the NL and West Coast kind of limits the market and hurts your bargaining position.  Fielding calls from Cashman and allowing the gist of the conversation to hit the media might give some leverage.

If a free agent spurns the Yanks aggressive efforts, I wouldn’t call those efforts a waste of time.  Maybe you kept him away from a rival (Angels or Sox).  Maybe you jacked up the price even if he did go to a rival. 

If you think 40/50 million in a backloaded contract is nothing to a team like the Yanks, then aggressively courting free agents is less than a drop in the bucket.

CP @43—I have no idea what you’re babbling about in your rambling post.

Injuries have wrecked careers before, and Hughes has been injured three times now in two seasons. Until he proves that three injuries in two seasons isn’t the norm, he isn’t the prospect he once was. I know, it is difficult to wrap your brain around that, but that is my opinion. And opinion is the only thing anybody has. Metrics are fun, but reality is, well, reality. See: New York Yankees, 2008.

IOW - You confuse opinion with belief.

Of course, this ignores the fact that a player who falls off a cliff won’t exercise that opt-out clause, leaving you in the same boat you’d have been in with the seven year deal in the first place.

Well, if that happens, you’re fucked either way. The opt out doesn’t protect you from a player sucking, but nothing does, so I don’t see how that’s a negative. I always thought what Depo did with Drew was brilliant. Get him for two years, if he’s been good, like he was, he’s gone and you have Matt Kemp to replace him and you got a 2 year deal for a player who didn’t want to sign a short deal. Same situation here, if Tex is great through 32, let some other team pick him up and pay for his decline. If he’s lousy, well, the Yanks would have been screwed anyway and can always hope for a rebound. Guesstimate Montero’s arrival, and give him an opt out clause for that year.

Until he proves that three injuries in two seasons isn’t the norm, he isn’t the prospect he once was.

He doesn’t have to prove anything. You have to prove that his specific injuries suggest that he’s likely to be injury prone for his career. He’s had a broken rib, a hamstring pull and a rolled ankle. None of these things suggest his arm is any danger and are all fluke injuries.

You confuse opinion with belief.

You’re confusing coincidence with meaningful evidence.

You confuse opinion with belief.

There is nothing wrong with expressing your opinion.  This is, after all, a message board designed for that very purpose.  However, your opinions are generally presented as an incontrovertible fact and anyone who disagrees is an idiot.  Your condescending tone doesn’t help matters either.

At any rate, arguing with you is pointless since you’re always right and everyone else is a moron, and I apologize for responding to your “opinion” in the first place.

My point is that I don’t think Nady can be relied on next year to hit like he did in the first half of this season and is more likely to hit like he always has.  Thus it might be foolish to think that he’s some kind of one-to-one replacement for Abreu’s bat.

Umm, who said that he can be counted on to hit like he did ion the first half or this year?  Abreu has given back a lot of the value of his bat on defense this year.  Nady hitting his career norms and playing average defense in RF in 2009 is probably as good a player as Abreu has been in 2008.  And for about one third as much money.

I think it’s far easier for a team, psychologically, to overpay up front than to just say fuck it to $40 million dollars to open up a roster spot after a guy becomes a net negative.

And yet every team does everything it can to backload contracts as much as possible.  Maybe this psychological aspect just isn’t as important to them as the time value of cash.

So, do you think that someone can tell the owner of the Yankees that player X will be better for the team and that they should cut the former MVP(hypothetically) Teixeira and eat all or most of $40 million (because he’s got a NTC or at that point is a 10/5 player)?  And it’ll be an easy sell because it’s a sunk cost?

I would hope that someone would tell the owner the truth about which player gives you a better chance to win more games, yes.  And I don’t think it should be any harder a sell than telling the same owner that he should pay $130M for five years of a player’s services instead of paying the same $130M for six years of the same player’s services.

If you think 40/50 million in a backloaded contract is nothing to a team like the Yanks, then aggressively courting free agents is less than a drop in the bucket.

Yeah, we agree on that part.  I want and expect the Yankees to go after CC in a big way.  I’m just not sure that he’s going to be about every last dollar.

The opt out doesn’t protect you from a player sucking, but nothing does, so I don’t see how that’s a negative.

I wasn’t really criticizing the idea of an opt-out.  It’s the “more money for fewer years” approach that I don’t see much wisdom in.

I’m confused by why you want to throw out 2004-6 when Hughes was healthy and focus solely on 2007-8 when he’s been, in my opinion, freakishly injured (while the stress fracture is not all that strange an injury, it is unlikely to be repeated).

ym @49 -  Silly post. But if you want to get personal, we can talk about your frequent posting.

I simply point out that Hughes has become injury prone, yeah we all know not to his arm. And that 2007-2008 are basically lost seasons. What Hughes did, in the minor leagues, in 2004-2006 carries no weight any longer. If you or any one else wants to believe otherwise, that’s fine by me. I never called anyone any names, just post my opinion, as many others do. Maybe its man-made global warming?

What it means is that Hughes has much to prove, you disagree, what proof can you offer to controvert that? Other than minor league stats.

in year 5 he’s got a OPS+ of 110 or so and the Yankees have a young hot-shot hitter for 1B and/or a trade/FA for the next big thing.

Are you advocating not improving the team years 1-4 years because of potential problems 5 years from now, especially one that is predicated on hot shot 1B and FA/trade?

I much rather have Tex as a plus on offense and defense, over treating 1B (or any position as a place to dump problems.  We already are in the DH league for crying out loud. 

And besides I don’t see any reason to suffer through a sub par 1B for the next year or two, purely to save a position for Posada, Jeter, or Alex, especially when the thing that would motivate the move is their age and likely declining offensive ability, and likely sub par defense.

Clay, those years were minor league stats. It still speaks of prospect. It doesn’t always translate to ML ball.

I know the injuries are *freakish* in nature, but that is worriesome, when a young man starts having three of them in less than two seasons.

Going gaga over a superb AAA outing seems silly, that’s all.

This:

Truly amazing, Phil *MIA* Hughes finally pitches a truly high quality game, and the usual suspects start dribbling all over themselves.

Ahhh, yes. One game, one game(!), and Phil Huggies is the next great thing, again. After two awful, injury plagued seasons. Makes sense though, great sample size and all that.

Is not the same as this:

I simply point out that Hughes has become injury prone, yeah we all know not to his arm. And that 2007-2008 are basically lost seasons. What Hughes did, in the minor leagues, in 2004-2006 carries no weight any longer. If you or any one else wants to believe otherwise, that’s fine by me. I never called anyone any names, just post my opinion, as many others do. Maybe its man-made global warming?

What it means is that Hughes has much to prove, you disagree, what proof can you offer to controvert that? Other than minor league stats.

Look at those two posts and see if you can figure out why everyone jumped down your throat. Maybe next time you post the last one first and save us all some time.

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Crikey.  Don broke teh internets!!11!1

I think the idea with being “injury prone” is not so much getting a whole bunch of different injuries, a la Hughes, but more getting the same type or location of injury.  I’m much more scared of a player who has been to the DL three times for back-related injuries, or the pitcher who’s had three shoulder-related DL stints, than I am of Hughes and his rib, hamstring, and ankle. He might be more “fragile” maybe, but I’m ready to proclaim him the next Pavano.

bold

So, it seems like for some reason that runaway <i>italics<i> tags don’t create problems, but runaway bold tags do.  Weird.

Ah, crap, I screwed up my own stupid post.  I give up on today.

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I don’t think I’ve ever seen that before.

If Hughes is so great why is he making those starts in AAA rather than for The Yanks instead of Rasner, Ponson, or Pavana?  I get the sense that this organization has no real plan- sometimes they push their pitchers too fast, sometimes they baby them.  I see guys like Lidge, Hamilton, Bradley, Lowell, Pena, and Quentin picked up off the scrap heap (or at least for a bargain price) and I wonder why Cashman can’t make moves like this.  Shoudl Cashman be brought back?  If Cashman is part of the solution, then who is the problem- Randy Levine?  Mark Newman?  If Cashman doesn’t come back, who are the potential candidates and what are their track-records?

He doesn’t have to prove anything. You have to prove that his specific injuries suggest that he’s likely to be injury prone for his career. He’s had a broken rib, a hamstring pull and a rolled ankle. None of these things suggest his arm is any danger and are all fluke injuries.

I have to side with CP here.  While you might question Hughes fragility as a strike against him, or temper your excitement about him because of it, it doesn’t change the fact that he’s got the talent to be a top of the rotation starter, and that the injuries he;s suffered do nothing to lessen that potential.  Some guys do seem to just get hurt all the time (see Snelling, Chris), and sure, maybe Hughes is one of those guys.  But, three injuries in two years is not nearly enough evidence to say that he is in fact one of those guys.  Given his age, Hughes still has the same basically the same potential he had last year at this time, and two years ago at this time.  If you want to nitpick - if his potential was a 96 before, maybe it’s 93-94 after the last two years.

OK, bold issue should be fixed now.

What it means is that Hughes has much to prove, you disagree, what proof can you offer to controvert that? Other than minor league stats.

I think everyone here agrees that Hughes has a lot to prove.  I also think everyone here agrees that his minor league stats prove nothing, except that he has the talent to potentially be a good major league pitcher.  He also has 70 major league innings that show the same thing.

I’m concerned that he’s been injury prone, but long-term maybe it saves his arm down the road if he can get over it.

Going gaga over a superb AAA outing seems silly, that’s all.

Yeah, if it were an isolated incident. But consider that he’s been working on a new pitch and he’s been racking up the Ks over his last several starts. I don’t think it’s out of order to be excited. Sure it’s easy to remember Hughes getting lit up, but I find it hard to forget about him throwing a no-hitter into the 7th and “saving” the yanks last October. both of those occurred in the last 2 years too.

Honestly, injury-wise I’m way more concerned about Joba than Hughes.

I can’t wait for The Jets to pick up where The G-Men left off and spank the Pats 2x this year!

he should pay $130M for five years of a player’s services instead of paying the same $130M for six years of the same player’s services.

I don’t think anyone is arguing that, that would be folly.  I think the argument is if the cost averages out to 22M/yr (I like round numbers), give him 5/120 instead.  He gets more per year - and has another shot at free-agency - Yankees pay less overall AND have flexibility again after year 5.  I don’t think that is a bad thing to try, but the devil is in the details, as they say.

Well, no one would be, so that’s not a concern.

I think there have been other examples of players asking for more from the Yankees than anyone else.  So for example (just for example) the Angels offer him 10/280, and the Yankees counter with 10/300.  He (and/or Boras) says to the Yankees, “I want 12/360 to play for you” (as you noted, outbidding themselves by 50+ million).  Anyway, I think we’re agreed on the main point.  It is important to get Tex, but there are limitations to what they should do to get him.

At any rate, arguing with you is pointless since you’re always right and everyone else is a moron, and I apologize for responding to your “opinion” in the first place.

I’ve given up arguing with Don and I suggest you do as well.  Prevents getting you angry…

I see guys like Lidge, Hamilton, Bradley, Lowell, Pena, and Quentin picked up off the scrap heap (or at least for a bargain price) and I wonder why Cashman can’t make moves like this.

Do you have this sentence saved some where?

Anyway, I think we’re agreed on the main point.  It is important to get Tex, but there are limitations to what they should do to get him.

Let’s make it happen!

The juries still out on Hughes but its beyond dispute that he has shown flashes of brilliance both in the minors and majors including his 7 inning no no last year against Texas as the youngest pitcher in the AL.

why is he making those starts in AAA rather than for The Yanks instead of Rasner, Ponson, or Pavana?

Because the season is over and he wasn’t ready.

I think the argument is if the cost averages out to 22M/yr (I like round numbers), give him 5/120 instead.

Actually, the argument was to give him 5/$130M.  Which I took to me that you blow the guy away on annual value so he won’t even think about offers of more years from other teams.  I’m not sure that he takes 5/120 over 7/144.  I’m pretty sure that he wouldn’t take it over 8/176.  I don’t know if he’ll get an eight year offer at $22M per, but I bet he’ll get an eight year offer.

Cowboy- are Cashman and Co. our best option?  Who else is available?

I see guys like Lidge, Hamilton, Bradley, Lowell, Pena, and Quentin picked up off the scrap heap (or at least for a bargain price) and I wonder why Cashman can’t make moves like this.

Most of these guys cost some pretty good prospects to get.  And the others…rumor has it Yanks had a shot at Bradley, but Torre didn’t want him.  They had Pena but he didn’t light up AAA, and the Tampa GM is *not* a genius for signing Pena, he got lucky.  Cashman did get some pretty good mileage out of Abreu for basically nothing, but I guess that doesn’t count.

Are you advocating not improving the team years 1-4 years because of potential problems 5 years from now, especially one that is predicated on hot shot 1B and FA/trade?

No.  It was a hypothetical about having to move a guy with a back-loaded deal and whether surrendering the sunk cost is an easy sell in general.

Umm, who said that he can be counted on to hit like he did ion the first half or this year?

Umm (and, really, is there anything that comes across more condescending than opening a response to someone with “Umm”?), that wasn’t in response to you, but more towards Mike K. @ 26: Nady has an OPS+ of 127 for the Yankees.  That’s pretty damned good.  And I think that there’s more people who think Nady is going to easily replace Abreu’s offensive production next season, which will magically reduces the holes in the Yankee offense to just first and CF. I don’t think he will.  It was a discussion point.  Feel free to disagree, or agree and state that it’s not a problem because the Yankees will make up for the lost production with superior defense and the bats of Burrell and Teixeira.  Whatever rows your canoe.

Actually, the argument was to give him 5/$130M.

Well, that is true.  But I think that’s the problem; this is getting caught up in numbers, where everyone has competing numbers.  I think YM originally proposed 5/130; I don’t know what she thinks Tex will get for 7 years (I agree 7/140 makes more sense than 5/130; but what if it is 6/140).  But I think the main point is, pay a little more per-year, but for less years; *not* pay in less years the same total $$‘s. 

I don’t think that is a bad-idea per-se.  Whether or not it would actually work in this case, is certainly up for debate.  And I think you’re right, to get him for 5 years you’d probably have to pay at least 30M per-year, because he is likely going to get 8 (8/160 would be the floor for what he’ll get I think).

And I think that there’s more people who think Nady is going to easily replace Abreu’s offensive production next season, which will magically reduces the holes in the Yankee offense to just first and CF. I don’t think he will.

Abreu currently has an OPS+ of 122, after a hot streak.  I don’t think he’ll keep that up, as he had a 114 last year, and a 118 before coming to the Yankees the year before.  I think he’s on a hot streak, which corresponds with Nady having a cold streak.  Add in that Abreu is several years older, and I think an OPS+ of 110 is reasonable for him next year, perhaps worse.  I don’t think Nady is going to be a 140 OPS+ player.  127 may even be high.  But 120 I think is possible.

Long and short, Nady is probably roughly equal to Abreu offensively going forward, with a greater chance of being a 125 OPS+ guy (or higher).  Add in the fact his defense is probably quite a bit better, and he’s probably a win or so better than Abreu for next year.

But I think the main point is, pay a little more per-year, but for less years; *not* pay in less years the same total $$’s.

I don’t think that is a bad-idea per-se.  Whether or not it would actually work in this case, is certainly up for debate.  And I think you’re right, to get him for 5 years you’d probably have to pay at least 30M per-year, because he is likely going to get 8 (8/160 would be the floor for what he’ll get I think).

Exactly, that was my point.  The actual numbers (I suggested 5/130) are irrelevant.  My thought was that, in order to avoid being weighed down by a long back-loaded contract, you have to overpay in terms of $$/year.  Whether or not that’s actually a good idea, I don’t know.  I just threw it out there irresponsibly.

I see guys like Lidge, Hamilton, Bradley, Lowell, Pena, and Quentin picked up off the scrap heap (or at least for a bargain price) and I wonder why Cashman can’t make moves like this.

Bruney?  Edwar?  Veras?  Molina?  Comments?

Long and short, Nady is probably roughly equal to Abreu offensively going forward, with a greater chance of being a 125 OPS+ guy (or higher).

If Nady plays for the Yankees next year, I’d like him to have a great season.  However, designing your offense with a bet for Nady to exceed 110 OPS+ seems a little risky.  This will be the first season he will have over 110 OPS+, while Abreu has been under 120 OPS+ in the past 10 years. 

On balance, with the defensive improvement, I agree that their value should be close.

Scattershot…

If I was the Yankees, I wouldn’t call up Hughes. Let him kill it in AAA, then go home and spend his winter brimming with confidence. Sure, it’d be better for him to finish the season throwing shutouts in the majors, but if you aren’t sure that’s what would happen, why take the risk?

Also, not to be a complete tool, but you guys practically had me lynched when I suggested a month ago that maybe Carl Pavano could still pitch. Just sayin… he’s suddenly an intriguing buy-low SP, though presumably the NY bridge is too torched for you guys to get some benefit.

“but you guys practically had me lynched”

Hey, not me.  I think you’re just an allegiance-switch away from being a fount of wisdom.  Come over to the dark side.  You won’t even have to hate the RS - just, say, Pedroia or Papelbon.

Also, if Hughes is really pitching in form, then I’d say bring him up - he ought to do well, even if not 11k/8 well, and that should be more useful mentally going forward then dominating in the minors.

and youk, tek and beckett.

Come over to the dark side. 

I say stick with the front runner, or minimally playoff making runner.

There’s a lot of grief in the dark side right now.

Come over to the dark side.  You won’t even have to hate the RS - just, say, Pedroia or Papelbon.

And love A-Rod? I think we’re done here.

83

Rilke, I think he really wants to win this championship with Trenton.
I’m not sure if that’s for his confidence, some element of MiLB comraderie, or because he’s scared to come back, but he did say that to some of the news media after the performance the other night.

I do wish they could bring ANYONE up though, even AA so I don’t have to see Rasner and Pontoon again.

Unless we’re trying to clinch 4th place.

“And love A-Rod?”

You must have Yankees fans confused for some other group.  Ok, maybe last year would have been awkward, but even then I think a bunch of commenters here privately grumbled about him any game he hit fewer than two hr.

People, your sarcasm-o’meter needs adjusting. This is, after all, only baseball, and not rocket science.

Summing up, let us hope Phil Hughes isn’t pitchings answer to Nick Johnson. Based on Nick’s minor league stats, he shoulda been a HoF.

I do wish they could bring ANYONE up though, even AA so I don’t have to see Rasner and Pontoon again.

since i like you, i just called Girardi and got him to start Aceves in place of Rasner the next time through.

i’ll try him on Ponson after the AAA playoffs are over.

“but he did say that to some of the news media after the performance the other night.”

Maybe the sequence is, Hughes wants to come up, the FO says you’re staying, Hughes says ok, reporters ask him what he wants and he says, I want to stay here and win a championship.

I think a bunch of commenters here privately grumbled about him any game he hit fewer than two hr.

Yeah, bad example. OK, love Pettitte? D-U-N.

“OK, love Pettitte? D-U-N.”

D-U-N?

Also, Andy’s one of the least offensive Yankees I can think of.  He’s been good but by no means great, he’s blown plenty of important games, he’s an actual excellent human being by all reports.

You would have to love Mariano and Joba at minimum.  Also Cano if he doesn’t suck going forward, and Hughes.  I don’t like Jeter, for example - too much smirk, too little leadership.  And you can continue to like Ortiz and Wakefield when you’ve come over.

Pettitte doesn’t offend me per se; he’s a Sox-killer (or was at least). If you’d been rooting for the Sox all those years from 1996-2002(-ish), you’d know what I mean.

Mariano and Joba, no problem. Well, maybe not Mariano (see previous entry). But I do like Joba.

This is a horrible thread. I need a shower.

You would have to like Matsui, although as a real yankee fan you’d want them to solve their 1B/DH/OF situation, even if it meant trading him back to japan for a ludicrous posting fee and some dirty panties.

yup - Best Fuckin’ Friends Forever, man!

“This is a horrible thread. I need a shower.”

There’s some idiom about never wrestling with a pig.

Wait, ignore [98].

“This is a horrible thread. I need a shower.”

If you stare into the abyss, the abyss stares back into you.

he’s an actual excellent human being by all reports.

Well, except for the ones that report him as having cheated on his wife so much that she insisted he play for Houston so he couldn’t see his mistress in New York anymore. And he used steroids, which isn’t really terrible, but definitely goes in the not so excellent category.

I can’t stand Pettitte.