I guess Andy doesn’t get credit for holding runners well, nor does e.g. CMW for GIDPs?  I don’t see a rate version.  Trying to figure out why Andy’s better than Moose in this metric.

Incidentally, the charts are nearly unreadable on firefox - Âs everywhere.  Dunno if that’s a circonflexe or a caret.

It might be nice btw to make a scatter plot of e.g. ERA+ vs the above and consider some outliers.

I’m trying to figure out the formatting, it looks fine in preview but awful in the browser.

Charts look good now.

OK, I gave up on the tables and just posted images.

I guess Andy doesn’t get credit for holding runners well, nor does e.g. CMW for GIDPs?

No, that would be one limitation. 

I don’t see a rate version.

The actual tRA is the rate version, and it’s calculated as run value/out value times 27.

Trying to figure out why Andy’s better than Moose in this metric.

On a rate basis, they’re basically the same (4.51 tRA for Pettitte, 4.48 for Moose).  Pettitte’s getting extra credit for his higher K rate I guess, but I know I’d trust Moose over Pettitte for the rest of this year.

It might be nice btw to make a scatter plot of e.g. ERA+ vs the above and consider some outliers.

Yeah, it’s late and I really should be going to sleep, but I’m going to try and play around with luckiest and unluckiest over the next couple of days if I can.

Looks like fRSAA not t, which would explain the nonlinearity (e.g., CMW at -0.6 and 8.9).

league average pitching and a 900+ run offense.  sounds like a recipe for success in 2008....oh wait.

Pettitte’s getting extra credit for his higher K rate I guess, but I know I’d trust Moose over Pettitte for the rest of this year.

I think you would expect Moose to be underrated by stats like tRA or FIP, oR DIPS. The way he pitches, by throwing good first strikes and being able to almost constantly make pitchers pitches is going to outperform the average BABIP because hitters up there are making, in general, weaker contact against him. He also misses his spots less, so his defense will be better positioned for the balls he does allow in play.

I’m not that smart but this seems like a stat that just crunches numbers that don’t really tell us anything of value. Moose’s ERA is better then Andys by 1.13 and his WHIP is better by 0.18… yet Andy rates higher? IPK is in the middle of the pack… with a 8+ ERA?

Also, while it goes against statistical analysis, there are guys who are more liberal about letting guys get on base, but pitch better in jams. We NEVER like to see men on base, but there are many pitchers with decent ERA’s but not-so-hot WHIPs.

I love like to see more composit stats for rating players… stats that combine and average 3 or 4 similar types of stats (offense or pitching or defense), and maybe gives different weights to the individual stats based on their accuracy, vaue, etc. I also don’t trust Park Factors for equalizing many offensive stats.

4 names have been floated about for the AFL, Hughes, Jackson, Russo and Sanchez.

I’m surprised no one has mentioned it here yet, but if you don’t know, Cashman said that Joba will probably start ‘09 in the bullpen.

I’m definitely interested in stats like tERA.  The ideal stat would start from something like tERA and then add a fraction of the player’s over/under performance on metrics like BABIP back in based on the largest reasonably valid sample (since one year probably isn’t enough data to distinguish between good luck and skill at inducing weak contact relative to the type of batted ball).

I’m surprised no one has mentioned it here yet, but if you don’t know, Cashman said that Joba will probably start ‘09 in the bullpen.

I did see that, but it’s no surprise.  They’re pencilling him in for about 150 innings next year.  So their choices are EXACTLY 5 innings per start (and limit him to 30 starts), finding a way to limit him to about 25 starts or so (assuming he averages 6IP/Start), or starting him in the bullpen and transitioning him to the rotation in the summer.  I personally like that one the best.

It has to be less than 150.  Joba’s cap this year was going to be 140 and he didn’t even get up to 100. Even if they send him to AFL, he’s unlikely to pitch more than 30 more innings or so, so he’s back to the 130-140 limit next season.

Looks like fRSAA not t, which would explain the nonlinearity (e.g., CMW at -0.6 and 8.9).

That’s a typo, should be tRSAA. Wang’s tRA was below average, but still well above replacement level.

I’m not that smart but this seems like a stat that just crunches numbers that don’t really tell us anything of value. Moose’s ERA is better then Andys by 1.13 and his WHIP is better by 0.18… yet Andy rates higher? IPK is in the middle of the pack… with a 8+ ERA?

The point of this stat is to look at how a pitcher is pitching based on what they can control instead of looking at the results to this point which is what ERA or WHIP does, and which is dependent on things out of a pitcher’s control like the defense behind him.  This statistic is more designed to look at a player’s ability and what we should expect going forward than their YTD value.  I tend to think that could be kind of useful. 

Pettitte’s tRA is right in line with his pitching, so that tells me he’s not been really lucky or unlucky to this point.  Moose’s tRA is worse than his actual results to this point.  All tRA is saying is that Moose may be pitching a little above his head, which as Cowboy Popup posted may be explainable at least partially by his style.

Pettitte only rates higher because of his innings advantage (this was done before last night’s game), I’d guess they are even now.

What IPK’s rating tells me is he’s been a little unfortunate so far and should pitch better.  Do you really think an 8+ ERA is his true talent level?  I doubt it. A 5.00 ERA isn’t very good, but probably more in line with where Kennedy should be right now.

This isn’t meant to be the only stat to use to evaluate pitching, but I think it gives us extra information.  I love the fact that it shows how dominant Mo really is.  He gets rewarded for the weak contact he allows with this stat, whereas as something like FIP would penalize him for that.

I also don’t trust Park Factors for equalizing many offensive stats.

It depends.  I agree, park factors don’t affect every player equally.  For retroactive evaluation, you’re probably best off just adjusting for the run value of the park.  For projecting, you may want to look at how a park affects component stats for lefties versus righties and adjust at least somewhat based on that.  The key is to use enough years of park factor data to smooth out flukes.

and he didn’t even get up to 100.

Yet. Depending on when they actually pitch him again, he is probably going to get to 100, and could get to 110 if they let him throw a lot of innings out of the bullpen. That would make it reasonable to cap his IP next year at 150.

Also, the Yanks may have found that thanks to his insisting on getting to full counts on everyone while starting, he may have thrown enough pitches to equate his workload to 110 or 120 IP and has already earned the bump up.

Also, the Yanks may have found that thanks to his insisting on getting to full counts on everyone while starting, he may have thrown enough pitches to equate his workload to 110 or 120 IP and has already earned the bump up.

interesting thought.  could be something there, though i’d think they might opt for the most conservative answer.

re: Joba to the pen to start next year.  if his cap is 150 innings, then they probably have to do the same thing as this year.  it’s probably the right answer, though i don’t know for sure. 

i just think it becomes really hard to shut down your best starter down the stretch.

what would they have done if Joba started the year in the rotation and hit his cap a few weeks ago when the Yankees were still in it?

The alternative then would have been, as he approached his innings cap, to selectively skip his turn and also give him extra days rest between starts. Way too convoluted a process to deal with in a pennant chase. The fact that a fifth starter isn’t really needed until May most years helps. But, if they plan to put Hughes and/or Kennedy in the rotation in 2009, aren’t they in the same pickle with them?

How old is Jobber?

The alternative then would have been, as he approached his innings cap, to selectively skip his turn and also give him extra days rest between starts. Way too convoluted a process to deal with in a pennant chase.

I kind of like this idea compared to starting him in the pen.  I’m not sure that switching his role every year is a good idea long-term, although I guess it worked for Santana.

Thanks for the chart.

i like the idea of sending him to the AFL and getting another 30 innings so his cap is closer to 175 next year.

Now Kellerman is saying Joba should stay in the pen?

I kind of like this idea compared to starting him in the pen.  I’m not sure that switching his role every year is a good idea long-term, although I guess it worked for Santana.

Do we have any evidence of a pitcher being used like this (skipping starts, getting extra days off, etc)?  I mean, really, I want to know.  I guess we have some evidence that starting the pitcher in the bullpen and working him up to a starter can be successful.  If we have no evidence either way that doing it the other way works, I wouldn’t want to try it with Joba, even if it seems like a good idea.  Being a trend-setter...sometimes good, sometimes bad.  Of course, if there is evidence that method works, I’m all for it.

Perhaps in 3 years when the Yankees are 4 deep with Cy Young candidates (Wang, Chamberlain, Hughes, Kennedy), they can try that approach with a different pitcher.

i just think it becomes really hard to shut down your best starter down the stretch.

The Joba/Hughes or Joba/Kennedy or Joba/Giese (which they did this year) makes entirely too much sense for them to go into a season with that being the plan. Two high end, young pitchers with innings limits. Combine them into one starter. If Hughes shows up with his A game, you might end up with complete games every 5th day. That would certainly be a helluva weapon.

4 deep with Cy Young candidates

Don’t forget Brackman and Betances.

Don’t forget Brackman and Betances.

And my sleeper pick: Christian Garcia.

Don’t forget Brackman and Betances.

I figured those would be some of the candidates to work in as the fifth starter that year.  By 2012 the Yankees will be six deep in Cy Young candidates, maybe more.

J, I’ve always thought they should combine the starters in that way.  I also think the closer role shouldn’t exists- instead you should use your best pitcher in the most important spot late in any given game.

Don’t forget Brackman and Betances.

If Brackman is a Cy Young candidate in 3 years he’ll be the best young pitcher ever.  I’d like to see him throw a couple of innings in pro ball before plugging him into the rotation.

I understand the caution teams take with their young pitching talent these days.  I just think that it’s odd considering the strides in physical conditioning and biomechanics that the only thing they can really do is limit the wear and tear on young arms.  I guess there’s not much you can do when it comes to ligaments and tendons - they can’t be trained like muscles.

I guess there’s not much you can do when it comes to ligaments and tendons - they can’t be trained like muscles.

There’s only so much strain you can put on a human body before it snaps...let’s face it, a human shoulder and elbow weren’t designed to throw a small ball at speeds approaching 100mph over 100 times in a row.

I think the acceleration from 0 to 100 mph in about 4 feet is fairly near the limit of what the human arm can do in terms of g-forces.  No amount of mechanical adjustment is going to change the fact that you have a fixed distance to impart momentum to the ball. 

What I would like to see is a comparison of pitchers in terms of velocity going back as far as it can reasonably be determined, but that is probably fairly difficult.

So, it’s just a no-brainer that Moose should pitch every fifth day and that the Yankees skip one of the other pitchers in the rotation, right? He’d be able to get 5 more games in then. I mean, it has the benefit of allowing him to try to get to 20, which is nice and all and something I really want to see, but even without that, he’s been their best non-Joba starter basically the whole season, so it gives them the best chance to win those games.  Girardi/Cash can’t throw Ponson or someone out there just to keep a five-man rotation, right?  Am I crazy?

I think the acceleration from 0 to 100 mph in about 4 feet is fairly near the limit of what the human arm can do in terms of g-forces.

I recall an article (perhaps on drivelinemechanics.com) which implied that a study on cadavers had found that the ligament in the elbow can take 40lbs of force before it snaps.  Roughly equivalent to 104 mph.  Even with variation and perfect mechanics its quite the external limit on a pitchers ability.

Yeah, think about how close that is to the limit, and then repeated 40-50 times in a game.  Pretty wild stuff.

I’m not up on my anatomy and physiology, but I would imagine living ligaments/tendons may be a bit more supple than cadavers’.  Still, the difference probably isn’t all that great...Anyone know?

Joba in the pen is stupid, though I guess it eases off on the question of the Yankees signing Moose, Pettitte, whoever for 1 year deals or whatever.  The Yankees can more easily overload and wait to see who doesn’t last the rotation battle royale.

Knock on every freakin piece of wood out there, but just cause he starts ain’t going to be Joba necessarily staying in the rotation for the whole season, most mildly tired arm or some other minor thing might sideline him here or there.  And when he proves to be the superman that he is and stays healthy, then skipping starts is better than yoyoing between the pen and rotation.

I would imagine living ligaments/tendons may be a bit more supple than cadavers’

I have no background in biomechanics, but I do recall a show on NGC or Discovery where two guys (brothers actually) were able to use their arms, head, and legs, to break things. The amount of force required to accomplish those tasks would easily break the bone in question in a normal persons body.

What these guys did, and what I can imagine might happen when it comes to tendons in a pitchers shoulder and elbow, is stress the material (bone, tendon, etc) in question incremenetally, similar to cold working a piece of metal.  You break bonds in the lattice structure of the material, but over time, it recrystallizes and becomes stronger.

Joba is 23.  He isn’t a kid anymore.  Just fucking start him.

I am sick and tired of the fine china treatment.  Don’t make me get all Bob Fucking Feller up in here.

I tend to agree with John here.

Eventually, you’re going to get to the point where you’re literally hurting his effectiveness on the team by doing this, and I think “eventually” is 2009, so this irks me.

Joba is 23.  He isn’t a kid anymore.

i can’t even tell if this is a joke or not.

Mark Prior is 22.  He isn’t a kid anymore.  Let’s push him to 200+IP after 116IP the year before.

Right, just go ahead and fucking blow up the best arm the franchise has seen in a generation.  Brilliant.

Do we have any evidence of a pitcher being used like this (skipping starts, getting extra days off, etc)?  I mean, really, I want to know.

This is what we used to call a fifth starter, back when teams used a five day rotation instead of a five man rotation.  Instead of giving everybody an extra day’s rest when the schedule lets you, just skip the weakest link.  There’s no reason you couldn’t do the same thing with a young pitcher that you wanted to ease into full-time starting.

Eventually, you’re going to get to the point where you’re literally hurting his effectiveness on the team by doing this...

And we know this how, exactly?

he needs to start because i don’t want to read another this article about him ever again from Joel Fucking Sherman or whoever.

TEH 8th INNING AEWSOME BULLPEN JOBA RULES!!!!

if we can’t be patient with Joba, then the Yankees might as well only develop young players to trade for vets. 

because it’s not like someone like Kennedy, where we have to put up with all the growing pains and then the payoff is still unclear.

Joba WILL be awesome once his arm can handle 200+ IPs. 

which won’t be in 2009 no matter what happens for the rest of 2008.

also, i don’t know if anyone noticed, but Joba was throwing 92-95 last night, which is about 2-3 MPH slower than he usually throws out of the bullpen.  maybe he was holding back, i have no idea.  maybe he was just taking it easy in his first appearance back.

but there is some evidence that he isn’t even READY to be in the rotation right now anyway.  it could take 2-3 starts just to get him ramped up to 5-6 innings anyway, at which point, how many additional innings are they even gaining, 10?

Instead of giving everybody an extra day’s rest when the schedule lets you, just skip the weakest link.  There’s no reason you couldn’t do the same thing with a young pitcher that you wanted to ease into full-time starting.

I suppose the question is, what did those pitchers do in between starts?  E.g. did they pitch out of the pen?  Also, were those “fifth” starters journeymen in their late 20’s/early 30’s, or are there examples of pitchers under 25 doing that, and yet still becoming full-time starters later?

I guess I just don’t see how it is bad if he throws 50 innings out of the pen in the first half, and 100 out of the rotation in the second half.  Or whatever the number works out to.

As always, yup is the voice of reason.

I am so fucking sick of hearing Mark Prior. Mark Prior threw 129 and 138 in college.  He threw 168 innings if you include his minor league numbers. 

You can say Mark Prior all you want, but I can retort with David Cone, who went from 99(110 if you include the minors) to 230. 

You really think the workload was the problem with Prior?  Really? It was 100% the IP and the IP only?  Had nothing to do with a freak injury to his shoulder after an on the field collision?  Maybe he was pitching too many pitches per start, and his mechanics were breaking down.

Listen, I am not saying to throw him 250 innings, but let him be a starter.  Just because Mark Fucking Prior got hurt doesn’t mean Joba is going to get hurt.

At 23, Joba is a kid. He is a big, flamethrowing monster, sorta like Clemens, or Nolan Ryan, or Randy Johnson (not the same body type, I know) those guys pitched into their 40s. My point is that Joba has a long potential career in front of him, don’t piss all those seasons away just to ensure that he throws 200 innings next year. If he doesn’t throw 200 innings until 2010, big whoop.

Re47 and Joba’s velocity: Maybe it was because he hasn’t pitched in game in a month??

My point re tRSAA was that CMW is flanked by 5.4 and 3.1.  Maybe if I saw or looked up the IP it would make sense.

Since at this point the Yankees only have two starters capable of reaching the seventh inning with regularity and at least one starter in Snacks who can’t make it into the fifth, the issue with Joba in the pen might be overworking him before all is said and done. Ha.

At 23, Joba is a kid. He is a big, flamethrowing monster, sorta like Clemens, or Nolan Ryan

Roger Clemens threw 254 innings as a 23 year old.

[55] Joe Smallsamplesize threw 302 innings as a 19 year old.

My point is that Joba has a long potential career in front of him, don’t piss all those seasons away just to ensure that he throws 200 innings next year. If he doesn’t throw 200 innings until 2010, big whoop.

Joba starting does not necessarily mean x numbers of inning.

If he goes to the pen, whatever, it gives the FO some flexibility for starter depth and whatnot.  But Joba can start and if used carefully, which why the hell can’t he be, he can do fine.  I suppose it’s a win win situation for the FO because they have the luxury of having a decent starter in the pen if any of the rotation guys go down or don’t pan out. But there isn’t an overtly compelling reason to also not start him.

Small sample size?  really?  Is there a sample smaller than a guy who collided with Marcus Giles?  Because that is the only comp I ever written about here.

I ever see written about here.....

58: 1) I never said a word about Mark Prior. 2) I think Joba should start.

The only thing I was having an issue with was the whole “Joba ain’t a kid anymore” as if that gives the team license nay, mandate to throw caution to the wind.

Capeeshy?

Prior threw 3 complete games, and how many into the 8th? Joe Girardi isn’t Dusty Baker (I hope), and I see no reason why he can’t be handled with kid gloves while be allowed to start.

Plus, there’s actual real research that says that Mark Prior’s legendary awesome mechanics weren’t actually so hot:

from chris o’leary:

6/1/2008

The Tragedy Of Mark Prior

During the off-season between the 2007 and 2008 Major League baseball seasons, I did two analyses of the pitching mechanics of Mark Prior, one in December 2007 that looked at Mark Prior’s pitching mechanics in isolation and a second one in February 2008 that compared Mark Prior’s pitching mechanics to those of Greg Maddux and Nolan Ryan. In that second piece I said this…

Mark Prior’s pitching mechanics were never as good as people thought they were (and) Mark Prior’s pitching mechanics are largely responsible for his injury problems. As a result, I would not be surprised if the fans of the San Diego Padres find Mark Prior to be as big of a disappointment as the fans of the Chicago Cubs have found him to be.

Re47 and Joba’s velocity: Maybe it was because he hasn’t pitched in game in a month??

exactly.

meaning he doesn’t have the same arm strength he had pre-injury.

this isn’t the beginning of August with the team in the middle of the race.

it’s september.  and the season is over.

so if he needs to build up arm strength, and his velocity MAY (i don’t know) indicate that he does, then you just aren’t going to get much out of starting him now.

you could be looking at the following appearances:

3 IP
4 IP
5 IP
6 IP
6 IP
season over.

as opposed to getting 10-12 innings out of the bullpen over the last 25 games?

Joba reported having a lot of issues with his delivery - not being over the rubber, breaking his hands late - which presumably mean not throwing at peak velocity.

more on prior from the SI lincecum article:

MARK PRIOR is a classic example of a high-performing pitcher who was permitted to break down because of poor mechanics. Ironically, Prior was often hailed for his “flawless” mechanics when the Cubs drafted the righthander out of USC with the No. 2 pick in 2001, though that assessment seems to have been influenced by scouts’ preference for his 6’5”, 225-pound body type. Studied closely, his mechanics included two severe red flags: 1) Prior lifted his throwing elbow higher than his shoulder before reaching the loaded position, increasing the stress on his elbow and shoulder; and 2) unlike Lincecum’s dynamic late torso rotation, Prior rotated his hips and torso before getting to the loaded position. With the letters of Prior’s jersey already facing the target, his arm could not simply “go along for the ride"—the ride was over, so his arm had to generate all of its own power.

Prior went 41--23 over his first four seasons in the big leagues. During that time, in 2003, when Prior was on his way to a career-high 18 wins, Peterson gave a presentation to the Oakland scouting department about “certain red flags in a delivery that we can’t do much about” as the A’s prepared for the draft. The idea was to avoid sinking large signing bonuses into players with a high potential to break down. (Late picks, because of their lower cost, don’t carry the same concern.)

One of Oakland’s scouts, responding to Peterson’s red-flag warnings, said, “Hey, that’s what Prior does. Are you saying that we shouldn’t draft a player like that?”

Replied Peterson, “No, not exactly. He’s one of the best pitchers in the league right now, but what I am saying is, If he doesn’t have maximum [shoulder] rotation, it will lead to injury. It’s like slamming the brakes over and over. The brake pads are going to wear out until it’s metal on metal.”

Prior has suffered a series of shoulder injuries that have limited him to one win and nine starts in the three seasons since. Still only 27, he is out for the season—again—after surgery to repair a tear in his right shoulder. “Prior is almost all upper body,” Chris Lincecum says. “You could cut his legs off and he would throw just as hard. I don’t like to put my finger on players, but I’ve been doing this a long time. I’ve said, ‘He’s going to blow his elbow out’ or ‘His back will go out.’ Sure enough, it happens, including Daisuke Matsuzaka [Daisuke Matsuzaka], Jake Peavy, Prior.... I have a hard time enjoying the game. I’m sitting there criticizing the pitcher. It hurts to watch pitchers. Seventy percent of the pros have poor mechanics.”

This year I thought early on talking basketball was a mystical formula for Yankee wins, until WOE proved to be too strong.

That said, I like baseball so much more because in other sports, they go into full tank mode.  I still hope and want Yankee victories.  And well, let’s keep it going tonight.

My point re tRSAA was that CMW is flanked by 5.4 and 3.1.  Maybe if I saw or looked up the IP it would make sense.

Ah, that’s because I sorted by tRSAR, not tRSAA.  So Wang gets credit for pitching more, even if it’s at a lesser quality on rate basis.

As far as innings, you can divide OV (out value) by 3 to get an inning approximation.  tRA uses estimated innings, not actual innings.

I don’t agree with John that Joba isn’t a kid, but I do agree that he should be starting next year.  Even if they have to limit him to 4-5 innings sometimes and skip him a few times to keep his workload manageable.

Nice job by Baltimore today-not that it matters.  And I’m so glad Girardi values Sir Sydney’s experience-not that it matters.

I don’t agree with John that Joba isn’t a kid, but I do agree that he should be starting next year.  Even if they have to limit him to 4-5 innings sometimes and skip him a few times to keep his workload manageable.

for the record, i was only referring to his role for the rest of 2008.

i am 100% in the camp that Joba needs to be a starter, but they will still need that mechanism to limit his innings next year.  i am ok with it being “start in the bullpen” b/c i thought it worked pretty well this year.  i am also ok with it being something else, maybe something i haven’t even considered.

And I’m so glad Girardi values Sir Sydney’s experience-not that it matters.

we’ll see if he makes his next start. 

i am hoping Girardi is just playing possum with the media, as usual.  i’d like to see Aceves.

ml242, do you have a link to that Licecum article you quote. It looks fascinating.

Not ml242, obviously, but here’s the Lincecum link.

that’s actually the best article i’ve ever read on piching.

I think this a pretty cool way to look at pitching in more depth, but I’d be interested to see what everyone else thinks.  The methodology certainly seems sound to me.

Anything that involves more hard facts and removes averages is always going to be better at producing results.  You’re last post though, SG, disappoints me given that you say “As far as innings, you can divide OV (out value) by 3 to get an inning approximation.  tRA uses estimated innings, not actual innings.”

Not that I am at all, and I do mean at all, knowledgeable about detailed statistical analysis, but by reading this site on a daily basis, I do find that I understand quite a bit more...until I get a migraine, then I’ll have to limit my visits until I’m able to come back at 100%.  I may have to start next season on an abbreviated schedule if it comes to that.

Anything that involves more hard facts and removes averages is always going to be better at producing results.  You�re last post though, SG, disappoints me given that you say �As far as innings, you can divide OV (out value) by 3 to get an inning approximation.  tRA uses estimated innings, not actual innings.�

The out value is calculated using the expectations for each event, so I think it’s a pretty good approximation for a pitcher’s innings, and removes the impact of defense (good and bad).

I may have to start next season on an abbreviated schedule if it comes to that.

Maybe you should only post in the eighth for the first couple of months.

So there could e.g. be 4 outs in an inning if the catcher drops strike three, hence “approximate”?

Still don’t get the tRSAA thing wrt tRSAR for e.g. Giese/Wang/Ramirez.  CMH has been worse on the former but better on the latter than Edwar?  This assuming RSAx is for equivalent innings.

Cool stuff, SG.

Dustin Pedroia went 3 for 4 with another HR today.  God I hate him.

Pedroia’s 2008 hit location data:

Pulled: .464 BA with an .812 SLG, 181 AB
non-Pulled: .304 BA with a .398 SLG, 342 AB

Maybe he’s particularly adept at getting to outside pitches and still ripping them hard to left field, but I would think that preventing him from pulling the ball would greatly lower his average and his pop.

Whoa, sorry I mentioned Mark Prior, I didn’t mean to start a firestorm.  I wasn’t really trying to make the absolute statement “Mark Prior got screwed up, hence Joba will get screwed up.” It was more just stating my preference that he be handled with some sort of care, as bad things do happen.  I was just lazy and Prior was the first thing that came to mine, I apologize for my sloth.

Not sure, but I really haven’t seen anyone here in favor of Joba being a reliever long-term.  We’re just quibbling over the ways to accomplish Joba being a starter.

Still don’t get the tRSAA thing wrt tRSAR for e.g. Giese/Wang/Ramirez.  CMH has been worse on the former but better on the latter than Edwar?  This assuming RSAx is for equivalent innings.

tRSAA is calculated as league average tRA - pitcher tRA divided by nine times IP(OV/3).  So if we look at how Giese/Wang/Ramirez stack up when compared to average, it looks like this.

I’m still using replacement level = 20% worse than league average, so I use the same calculations but 1.2 times league average tRA. 

When comparing to replacement level, quantity of innings becomes more important than quality at a certain point, and that’s the difference you’re seeing with Wang/Edwar here.

are there examples of pitchers under 25 doing that, and yet still becoming full-time starters later?

Kevin Millwood.  Just OTTOMH.  Also, Jim Palmer, but he had actually pitched more at a younger age and was put in the fifth starter role when he was coming back from the injury he suffered after going from <100 to >200 IP in one year.  Of course, I’m quite sure that near career-ending arm injury had absolutely nothing to do with pitching 208 innings at the age of 20.

And of course, the afore-mentioned Nolan Ryan was pretty much a fifth starter/swing man when he was with the Mets.

that’s actually the best article i’ve ever read on piching.

it is a really good article. thanks to the linker and the mentioner.

"tRSAA is calculated as league average tRA - pitcher tRA divided by nine times IP(OV/3).”

Right, arithmetic, thanks.

wow, misspelling.