Just curious, but real quick what do you have Posada for career for Runs Saved defensively?  I would guess that - for his career - he is better than -30RS.  Which sounds really bad, but over the course of better than a decade, really I think would be like low-average.  Wondering if I am way off.

As this list shows, offensively at least Posada ranks right up there with two all time great catchers.  Berra I think was good defensively and Dickey outstanding, but a roughly average defensive catcher who hits that well, IMHO, is a Hall of Famer.

Another good comparison we could do at some point would be Posada vs. Piazza.  Piazza is a first-ballot HOF’er, and I don’t think Posada is all that much behind him (offense + defense).

if Posada really owns 5 of the top 20 offensive seasons for a catcher in HISTORY, this tells me he belongs in the Hall of Fame. 

for the voters to come around to that, i think he’ll have to catch for 2 more years than maybe DH 3-4 more years after that.  he needs to get comfortably above 2000 hits and 300 HRs, as dumb as that seems.

Posada is awesome, it’s amazing how underrated he has been by Yankee fans, when in actuality, he *might* be better than Jeter (i am not saying this with conviction, even if they are roughly similar on a positional adjusted basis Jeter HAS been around longer).

Just curious, but real quick what do you have Posada for career for Runs Saved defensively?

I haven’t done my own catcher defense calculations yet, more out of laziness than anything.  I don’t like Baseball Prospectus’s fielding stats for the most part, but I do think they use a good methodology for catchers.  They actually have Posada as +25 runs saved above average.  That doesn’t seem right to me.  Your -30 estimate seems about right, which is only about 3 runs below average per season.

The more I look at Posada’s career in retrospect, the more I think he deserves to be a Hall of Famer.  He won’t get in unless he rocks these next few years, but it could happen.

if Posada really owns 5 of the top 20 offensive seasons for a catcher in HISTORY, this tells me he belongs in the Hall of Fame.

Yankee catcher, not all catchers.

Posada is awesome, it’s amazing how underrated he has been by Yankee fans, when in actuality, he *might* be better than Jeter

I’ve got Posada at +234 BRAA for his career.  Jeter’s at 335.  Has Posada been 100 runs more valuable defensively? I’ve got Jeter at -96 defensive runs saved over his career.  If Posada’s been average defensively, they’re neck and neck.  If he’s worse, then Jeter is better by however far below average Posada’s defense is.

Yankee catcher, not all catchers.

wow, that’s embarrassing.

i basically just scanned through the list counting Posada’s name.  then i saw Piazza’s name in Mike’s post, and i brain-farted.

i still think he is a HoFer, and he just needs to goose his counting stats a bit.

If Posada’s been average defensively, they’re neck and neck.  If he’s worse, then Jeter is better by however far below average Posada’s defense is.

good stuff.  i think my broader point stands. they are COMPARABLE even if Jeter is still better, yet the gap in perception is gigantic.

i think my broader point stands. they are COMPARABLE even if Jeter is still better, yet the gap in perception is gigantic.

No doubt.  I think the problem is people don’t always account for just how little offense the typical catcher provides.  Once you factor that in Posada’s value really jumps up.

Posada has the rate stats of a HOFer, but not the counting ones, because he started so late.  He probably won’t quite get there.  Unless, of course, he keeps plugging away with Jorge-esq seasons for several more years (which would rock, of course, considering the Yanks are going to be employing him for 4 more years).  Love the guy.

If you guys like WARP3, Posada has a shot of getting there. The average HOF Catcher has a WARP3 of 96.6. Posada is currently at 80.3. Per game, however, his WARP3 is 0.056, which is higher than the average of 0.054. It’s very possible for Posada to reach 100 WARP3.

i think my broader point stands. they are COMPARABLE even if Jeter is still better, yet the gap in perception is gigantic

I think a lot of that perception is because of the role Jeter played with the 96, 98, and 99 teams, when Posada was only a backup or just beginning to be a starter, and before he was the force he is now.  And of course Jeter was also the 2000 WS MVP. 

I’m not saying it is right or fair, and Posada certainly has his big post-season moments as well, but for perception Jeter was already established as a “winner” by the time the Posada was a star and the Yankees weren’t winning championships.  Also, Jeter’s offense is pretty well above Posada’s and the perception of Jeter is a good defensive player so…

I just compared Piazza to Posada myself, using Baseball Reference’s Batting Runs, which appear to be very close to SG’s numbers.  Isn’t as close as I thought, as Piazza has 421.9 BR and Posada is 198.6.  Posada may be 100 runs better than Piazza on defense, but not 200.  I guess we’ll see over the next 3-4 years how much the gap is closed.

Not to nit-pick, but shouldn’t Matt Nokes be on this list?

Not to nit-pick, but shouldn’t Matt Nokes be on this list?

No, I don’t think so. Nokes best year with the Yanks was in 91 - he put up an OPS+ of 113. He got on base barely over the .300 mark. Yikes!

I guess we’ll see over the next 3-4 years how much the gap is closed.

The other thing to remember is that comparing Posada to Piazza is not very fair. Piazza is arguably the best hitting catcher ever.  To me, what hurts Posada more than anything is the fact the he won’t be looked at as the best catcher during his time - Pudge Rodriguez will be (even though they’re careers don’t really coincide, they sort of overlap.)  If you factor in Pudge being on the juice, it maybe Posada has a shot.

I think Posada will have a strong 4 years to finish his career (and maybe more, hopefully), but it will probably take a big PR thing to bring him to the forefront.  Also, if he keeps having crazy years like this that coincide with ARod also being a monster, it’s not doing him any favors. He probably would have one the MVP if he put up his 2007 in 2006.

one=won. I don’t know what phenomenon is responsible for me constantly typing homonyms.

I’m of the opinion that Posada’s late start will lead to a late exit… which will hopefully push him over the top when it comes to the Hall of Fame.

Awesome stuff, SG!

To address sleepyirv’s point, you’d have to expect that Posada holds up a little better than an average catcher as he ages because he’s logged fewer seasons behind the plate, but I don’t think it’s a one to one relationship. It’s not just catching that wears your body down; just aging is enough for that. So Posada will probably be better than his age suggests for the next few years, but it’s not like you can take those young seasons he was a back-up and just tack them on the end.

SG—I’m working on an essay about Yankees catchers in Monument Park and your mention of Dickey’s 1943 season reminded me of something I remembered during my research.  ‘43 was the first complete MLB season in which a significant number of major-leaguers were active in the military.

Granted, we can come up reasons to question statistical feats in just about any era.  But I think the caveats of that particular era are too compelling to altogether ignore.

Nokes did put up an OPS+ of 136 in 1994, but his AB total was too low (79).

By the by, I think it’s awesome that I was surprised at the result of the very first one!

I figured Dickey would do well, but not TOPS!

The other thing to remember is that comparing Posada to Piazza is not very fair. Piazza is arguably the best hitting catcher ever

Yes, that’s what I was trying to get to.  That when you compare him to the best hitting catcher ever - who has pretty much been a contemporary - how close is Posada to that.  Before I checked, I thought it would be closer to a hundred run difference, which Posada’s superior defense would almost negate.  I figured if offense+defense they were close, it would be hard to keep Posada out of the hall.

However, since the gap is SO wide, Posada will need to put up some big numbers the next few years.  But actually, I think he has a shot to close the gap to around a hundred, so they will actually be relatively close for career value (factoring in defense).  What will put Piazza over the top in the minds of voters - besides the fact most don’t understand things like linear weights - are the truly great seasons in the first half of Piazza’s career.

Not to nit-pick, but shouldn’t Matt Nokes be on this list?

No.  j covers it, but despite Nokes seeming like a stud in our youths, he had OBPs of .308 and .293 in his two full seasons as a Yankee.

Here’s his BRAA for every year as a Yank:
1990: -2
1991: 16
1992: 6
1993: 2

I loved Matty “No” Nokes as much as anyone back then, but the numbers show he just wasn’t all that good.

‘43 was the first complete MLB season in which a significant number of major-leaguers were active in the military.

But I think the caveats of that particular era are too compelling to altogether ignore.

Good point Captain Scurvy, and one I’ll make sure to consider when I look at the other positions.

I figured Dickey would do well, but not TOPS!

I think Posada’s 2007 was very close in value to Dickey’s ‘36 and ‘37 and I very well could have listed it first, but Dickey really was awesome.

However, since the gap is SO wide, Posada will need to put up some big numbers the next few years.

I think Posada will suffer in comparison to both Piazza and Posada.  A lot of Po’s value is in his ability to draw walks and get on base at a good clip.  Pudge has the defensive rep and has hit .303/.340/.479(OPS+ of 111) compared to .277/.381/.479 (OPS+ of 124).  Now, I think most of us would rather have the second line, but that .303 is shiny.  It will probably drop below .300 the longer Pudge keeps playing, but he should end up at around .295 at worst.

Add in Pudge’s edge in counting stats since he came up at 18, and you have another tough case for Posada to beat in addition to Piazza.

I think yup is right, 2000 hits and 300 HRs should get Posada in.  He’d have to average around 167 hits over the next four years but he never had more than 137 hits in a season until 2007.  He’ll also have to average 21 HRs for the next four seasons, which I think is more reasonable but still not a definite.

Ahh. The love for Mr. Nokes.
I spent his whole Yankees career wondering why he couldn’t hammer the ball like he did when he was a Tiger.
Another vivid memory is our favorite Texas born and raised , former Red Sock,Blue Jay, Yankee, Astro and back to the Bronx to lead us to victory,POS,hitting poor Nokesie in what seemed like every other AB.
I seem to recall Nokes catching a inside pitch with his hand from Jolly Roger during one attempt on his life,and throwing it back. Does anyone remember that?
Now for the love of Herr Munson.
Any of you lads that watched and went to games in the 70’s will know what I mean about Thurmans value not being represented solely on the basis of his numbers.
I know thats heresy on this site so send a Dominican Friar after me and make me repent.
I truly believe Munson was better than Jorge in every facet of the game with the obvious exceptions being…
POWER - no contest
OBP   - the same,no contest not even close, Thurm would not walk.
TOUGHNESS/ CAPTIANABILITYNESS - I call that one a tie. I’m not stuck in the 70’s to the point where I’m freakin blind. Posado has proven (at least to me ) to be a Man Up Bad Ass Tough Guy over and over and I send gift wrapped props in a stretch to him.
Anything with a mitt on Thurm did better. Much better.  In fairness to JP Munson didn’t have to catch the nasty splitters. Thing is he would’ve caught them. Jorge…........ Not So Well All The Time. As we we all have witnessed.
Last of course is the CLUTCHABILITYHOOD.
As many times as I’ve seen Georgey come through , I cant remember any Yankee,ending more games with a K or a weak fly than our pal JP.
Thurm was money behind or tied. It was uncanny. That is usually the one thing we greybeards cant make the youngsters believe.
Pretty much the same as older guys told me about Yogi.
Oh yes the calling of pitches.
Early in Munsons career Ralph Houk was the skipper and called the pitches along with Jim Turner,the pitching coach but the Yanks kinda sucked then except when Mel was pitching.
Then came The Bill Virdon Time, he didn’t know the league and Thurmans catching blossomed.
Then the Billy Martin years and insane as he was, he recognised the the gift he had behind the plate and let Thurm run the show.
The show was good. Very good.
Of course the team was better too.
Thats it. I apologise for perhaps seeming to diss Jorge. My intention was to enlighten younger lads who peruse Baseball Ref as I do, who might be wondering about all this Munson-love, when his stats don’t seem to warrant it.
For those that haven’t ,please check his Post Season stats. CLUTCHABILITYHOOD.
SG I eagerly await Babe The 22 year Pitcher.

Thurm - I do remember Nokes catching an inside fastball from Roger.  I remember because the early nineties were a bleak time to be a Yankee fan and you had to take what highlights you could get.

I was still pretty young when Thurm was catching, so I can’t really remember how good he was behind the plate.  He was my favorite Yankee and when he died, I lit a candle at church, something I’ve never done since.  I think I was eight when I did it and my mom was surprised to say the least.

You do bring up a good point: catchers, more than any other position player, have talents that can’t be measured well on an excel spreadsheet.  If a catcher has a great bat, but can’t call a game or block a pitch, you’re looking at a future DH sometime soon.  That said, I have no idea how much latitude Posada gets when it comes to calling pitches.

If you want to take a trip down memory lane, there is a book written by a former Yankee batboy in the early 90s.  Great inside look at life in a MLB clubhouse and he throws out some classic Yankee “greats” from the early nineties.  It’s called Bat Boy by Matthew McGough. 

My favorite part is when Scott Kaminecki helps the kid get a date with a girl.  That and Perez paying back the Bat Boy after he loses big in poker.

Is anyone outside of NY picking Big Blue today?  What’s funny about that is that the last time the Giants were supposed to get beat in the NFC Championship game (by the Vikings) they won big.

I swear I will buy a Philip Rivers jersey and wear it to Opening Day in April if the Chargers can somehow pull this off.
J - I think the Giants have no better than a one in three, but I wish them luck. Anything to beat the NE PUTAS.
Yatt- I’m sure that candle lighting scene was common throughout Yankeesdom.
I will look for that book,I hope to find some Mel Hall,strippers, and giant cat tales. I love those.
Rivers killing me as I peck away.  Go Giants.

AAAAAHHH shit… Tynes sucks.
OT.

Happy Times. Go Jints.
I gotta say this, Eli won’t be doing any shows on ESPN once he hangs up the cleats. He is a Gumplike dude but thats a good thing.
He won’t be afraid of Satancheck or Bradylezeebub.
Congrats Big Blue dudes. Just Win.

Nokes did have a couple decent seasons, but my comment was more of a joke than anything else . . .a very bad one.

Will Carroll posted for Pete Abe over at LoHud and has some interesting to say about how Hughes, Chamberlain and Kennedy might be used in 2008.

Old Thurm, I never saw Munson play because I wasn’t a baseball fan when I was a kid.  So I believe he was an awesome catcher if you say so.  But his “clutch” numbers over at Baseball Reference are pretty similar to Posada’s.

“Not to nit-pick, but shouldn’t Matt Nokes be on this list?”

I saw your Nokes joke, Chopper, and I raise you one Hassey.

Speaking of linear weights, anyone see this interview at Hardball Times?

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/pete-palmer-interview/

Moderately interesting: Palmer turns out to be a McCarthy-loving paleoconservative. 

I had this vague idea that being interested in statistical evaluation would roughly correlate with a more liberal outlook, because it’s about fresh ways of looking at situations and in opposition to orthodoxy…but not so.

And isn’t Jonathan somewhere to the right of Attila the Hun? 

Palmer: “It turns out everything you know about McCarthy is not only wrong, but it was what was done to him, not what he did to others. It’s amazing how Roosevelt’s commie-filled staff changed the course of World War II and Korea and aided the communist takeover in China.”

It’s sometimes hard not to be an ageist.

Frog:

I fold

Old Thurm- I guess I’m a grey beard as I remember as a small kid Yogi playing near the end of his career 61-63 and he was a back-up to Elston Howard, a 1963 MVP by the way himself.  I really focused as a child on offense so I can’t evaluate Yogi other than to remember something that I read that he had some kind of ridiculous no-error streak. I don’t think stolen bases was much in vogue during the 50’s and obviously speed merchants didn’t abound so I can’t hold the catchers of that era in the same class as todays in that respect.  I was very much around for all of the Munson era and he was outstanding in the clutch as a hitter. Kind of a Jeteresqe swing many times blooping hits the other way. He had occassional homers that went a long way such as the playoff bomb to death valley off D. Bird in the 78 playoffs vs. KC. As a catcher he didn’t seem to have very many passed balls as at least it seems Posada does. His arm success was more noted for a quick release rather than a gun, but he was pretty effective as I recall.

As to Nokes. I had an encounter with him on the sidewalk in front of the Raddison Hotel in Minnesota in 1993. I asked him to sign an autograph for my young boy who was in a stroller. He and his wife walked up and couldn’t have been kinder. They said several kind words to us and I’ll always rate him very high for that which is probably more important in the long run than one’s sports success. Nokes had some incredible power by the way. Upper deck variety.

As to him catching a Clemens pitch. I remember he was batting and it kind of got stuck between his ribs and his arm. He just grabbed it out of his side and flung it back. Quite amusing and he didn’t lose his cool!

Hey SG—or Rilkefan—or somebody—

I thought I had an idea what linear weights meant.  But reading the Palmer thing in HT inspired me to check out the Wikipedia article, and I realized I have no idea—just don’t remember enough math.

Can anyone give me a definition I can use in conversation to make me look smart?

I think the easiest way to describe “batting runs by linear weights” to somebody is to say that it’s a way to count up the total number of runs a batter contributed to his team by a method that assigns a run value to each of the different outcomes of a plate appearance, ie single, double, home run, strike out, etc.  Each is “weighted” differently, and then you add them up.  The values for the different outcomes have come from careful statistical analysis of run probabilities and other things which are out of my league.  I think this is correct, and it makes sense to my addled brain, so it should be sufficient to explain to someone else who is equally as dumb as I am.

To expand on 39 slightly without any expertise at all, the recently-familiar OPS is a linear weighting - it’s something like 1*singles + 2*doubles + 3*triples + 4*hr per AB for the slugging part + 1*singles *1*doubles +1*triples + 1*hr + 1*walks + 1*hpb per PA for the on-base part, more or less.  So GIDP is the same as K etc.  OPS is a good indicator of effective hitting performance (i.e., all else equal a guy with better OPS is a better player in terms of winning games).  But obviously one can adjust the parameters a little better than the simple integers above and throw in information about the quality of outs to get a better measurement of the quality of a batter.  One uses statistical methods to come up with the best parameters, assuming everything else about the game is unchanged when one adds say a single.  And similarly one can add in running and defense.

Something this doesn’t do is consider situational hitting, which would I suspect make the whole thing be a non-linear model.

Well, that all makes sense, and is kind of what I thought it meant in the first place.

As to him (Nokes) catching a Clemens pitch. I remember he was batting and it kind of got stuck between his ribs and his arm. He just grabbed it out of his side and flung it back. Quite amusing and he didn’t lose his cool!

I’m pretty sure that was the murdering drunk Leyritz, not Nokes.

Anyway, the real glaring omission on this list is John Ellis.

The Onion had a brutal Leyritz-related headline this past week…

“Jim Leyritz Deems Victims Small Price To Pay For Clutch Home Runs Earlier In Life”