...and then the dorkiness begins.

You’re saying that’s when it starts?  I think the first time you meantion the word “decimal” Joe Morgan got light-headed.

No Cano?

No Cano?

He fell off the table the last two weeks.  Not sure if it’s the hand or what.

Through July 24, he had seen 341 chances and converted 288 into outs for a ZR of .845.  League average was .825, so he was +7 on plays made, +5 on RS.  Since then, he’s seen another 33 chances and converted just 18 into outs.  League average 2B would have converted 27 of those chances into outs, so he’s gone from +7/+5 to -2/-2 in basically 11 days.

Yuck.

From the last thread:

Robertson was the last guy out of the pen.  There was no one else left in there.  Now, I realize that this is sort of like the kind of reasoning that let Mariano sit in the pen while Jeff Weaver was busy giving up a game winning homer to Alex flippin’ Gonzalez.

Because this is one of my 3 least favorite baseball moments ever, I’d like to remind ever that Weaver was NOT the last option.  Sitting in the bullpen—but not in Torre’s circle of trust—were both Chris Hammond and Felix Heredia (who was not yet the Run Fairy he would be the subsequent season). 

On the other hand, there was another post in the last thread saying, “When do starters ever come in the day after they’ve pitched?”  This recalls a time when Torre was brilliant and creative: May 1, 1996.  Notice the final and winning pitcher?  He had started the April 30th game.

I’m historicizing.

You’re saying that’s when it starts? 

Nah, the dorkiness started long ago.  But this particular instance of dorkiness starts after league ZR totals are rolled up.

so he’s gone from +7/+5 to -2/-2 in basically 11 days

Even for a player who likes streaking so much, that decline is truly impressive.

If not too much trouble, top 5 breakdown by position (NL, AL, MLB, whatever, your choice) and maybe a six spot for where our preferred Yankee superstar rank?

Only if not too much trouble.

Only if not too much trouble.

Too much trouble.

Not really.  I’ll get to it later today or tomorrow.

Only if not too much trouble.

That’s what my mother says right before roping me into some ridiculous project.

So in this analogy SG is like the mother duck and the rest of us are ducklings paddling aimlessly behind her?

What do you mean, “analogy”?

Trip down recent memory lane:

Year, Pitcher, team,  ERA+
2003 Heredia, Cin, 137
2003 Heredia, NYY, 366
2003 Heredia (total) 155
2004 Heredia, NYY 72
2005 Heredia, NYM inf

Trip down recent memory lane:

Does that run parallel to Foggy Rememberance Ave?  I don’t remember…

I hope Marte does not join the long line of relievers who came here and underperformed or out and out sucked such as Witasick, Hammond, Heredia, Gabe White, Acevedo, Karsay and Farnsie to name a few.  Gordon was terrific and if Torre had not used him in that blowout in 04 game we might not have made negative history.

Froggy Rememberance Ave.

“Torre had not used him in that blowout in 04 game we might not have made negative history.”

or if he wasnt throwing up on Mo’s shoes

I have also been cringing at the thought of Marte turning into Heredia.  But it’s not a good comp: Marte has a much greater history of success.

Also, Chris Hammond, in his one year with the Yankees, had an ERA+ of 154 over 63 innings.  The only underperformance was on the part of Torre, for not getting better use out of him.

Notice the final and winning pitcher?  He had started the April 30th game.

And not made it out of the second inning.  I remember that game well, and was very pleased with the move at the time for all sorts of reasons, but I doubt that Torre would have done it if it had been 80 pitches and a blister the day before.

Chris Hammond was the guy with the ridiculous changeup right?  That guy was awesome.

Well, I certainly wasn’t suggesting that Rasner should’ve been used, only answering your question.  I would’ve liked to have seen Robertson, though—not to revisit an already old debate.

Lets of top athletes threw up.  Blackhawks goalie Glen Hall before every game.  I think Bill Russell also.  I didn’t remember Hammond being that successful.  The year we got Heredia I remember Kay had been agitating for months about how the Yankees needed someone like Gabe White.  We got his wish.

Yeah, Hammond was a lefty whose best pitch was a changeup, which made him more effective against righties.  But Torre insisted on using him as a lefty specialist, and when he couldn’t do that job he got buried.

Marte will be fine.  He’s been successful in the AL, he just got overextended yesterday due to a thin pen.

BTW, Will Carroll has this on Joba.

I finally got on a plane around 9:00 p.m., and later, when we landed and I switched my phone back on, it nearly exploded. Somewhere in between was the scene that struck fear into hundreds of Yankees fans, because Chamberlain came out of the game while pointing to the outside of his shoulder. The early word is that his muscle tightened up due to a combination of the blistering heat (I sat in that heat the night before, and yeah, it’s a huge factor) and fatigue. It’s the latter that’s most worrisome given Chamberlain’s switch of roles. While he built up his arm strength, no one has any idea how the fatigue will be affected by the shape of his season. He’s headed back to New York for tests, so we’ll know more soon, but early reports and sources tell me that things look relatively positive, based both on the pain’s location, and on his reaction. Expect the Yanks to be ultra-conservative, and for Chamberlain to miss a start at least. We’ll know more after the images, but I’ll leave the DXL as a TBD for now.

Thanks, SG.  A cautious “Phew”, perhaps? 

Anyway, let’s not lose sight of the truly important happenings of the past few days.

the spokesman for the mustache institute is a comic genius…im especially fond of the phrase “lip sweater”

That’s good news on Joba. I hope Carrol is right.

Giambi claims the ‘stache will be back in a week.

I wonder how Freddy Garcia’s tryout thing is going today.

Is the consensus that Will Carroll is a jerk who thinks too highly of himself?  That he describe himself as the go to person for opinion on Joba, self serving?  Is what he described as the controversy of going to the pen to the rotation justified after x number of starts?  Or is he stirring up something that isn’t there any longer?  And if the location and reaction isn’t cause for concern, yet he doesn’t say what it is for why not too much concern.

I’m just asking because I just want to side with the masses regarding Carroll.

Or I shouldn’t be such a nitpicking ass.  Sorry all, I’m really off kilter today because of Joba and yesterday’s loss.

“This season, Jeter has 296 fieldable chances. His zone rating is .838, which means he has converted 248 of those chances into outs. [...] So Jeter has made 3 plays more than an average AL SS this season.”

So 296-248 = 48.  Sqrt(48) = 7.  Which is kinda large compared to 3.

So if I’m reading this right, Melky doesn’t rank among the league leaders in RS/162 because the Yankees’ opponents don’t hit as many balls to centerfield? Because based on the raw zone rating, Melky is right there with the best. But why should a centerfielder be penalized for not having as many balls hit his way?

“Since then, he’s seen another 33 chances and converted just 18 into outs.  League average 2B would have converted 27 of those chances into outs”

33-27 = 5.  Sqrt(5) = 2.2.  15/2.2 is significant.  Oh well.

But why should a centerfielder be penalized for not having as many balls hit his way?

He’s not being penalized, it’s just that he’s not doing too many plays and that’s why he’s not saving that many runs.

So 296-248 = 48.  Sqrt(48) = 7.  Which is kinda large compared to 3.

Which is why statistical analysis of defense is inherently limited.  MGL says that anything less than two full seasons worth of data is suspect.  And since meaningful changes in true talent can certainly happen over that kind of time frame, projecting defense is pretty much a fool’s errand.  With a few notable exceptions on either end of the spectrum, you’re almost better off just assuming that everybody will be more or less average.

So if I’m reading this right, Melky doesn’t rank among the league leaders in RS/162 because the Yankees’ opponents don’t hit as many balls to centerfield?

I don’t think RS/162 is overly useful for one season.  I think SG is just putting it out there to add some context.  But you’ll notice for example one of the CF who is way above Melky in RS/162 (Jody Gerut) has about half the defensive innings.  RS/162 I think is more useful when taking a player’s career and trying to show what an “average” season for that player was.

With a few notable exceptions on either end of the spectrum, you’re almost better off just assuming that everybody will be more or less average.

What are you trying to do, take all the fun out of it?  Next thing you know, you’ll be spouting that RBI’s are more a matter of opportunity than skill or something…

[33] - but see [31].

What seems to me to be the right thing to do is to keep a running estimate for a sample size large enough to give useful results at the desired resolution.  So one would estimate the statistics needed to calculate say half a win, then use the average fielder’s #s to tell you how many games to include (using the recorded data to get the sample size can lead to funny fluctuations).

But yeah, even with 4x the sample you only get to 7/sqrt(4) which is as large as 3.

But yeah, even with 4x the sample you only get to 7/sqrt(4) which is as large as 3.

(sigh) And I thought my statistics course in college would be useless and I was best off destroying those brain-cells with alcohol.  Little did I know years later I would have been able to use that information when discussing the Yankees.

36—But 31 just means that Cano’s recent short stretch of very poor defensive play can’t be written off as a random fluctuation.  I don’t think you’re going to be placing any large wagers on his performance over his next 33 chances based on that data, whether it is statistically significant or not.

SG @22—Kinda makes you wonder about the 30+ rule. I suspect Joba to the 15 day DL, one or two [short] rehabs, then back with the big club. That should reduce his innings and keep him under the 30+. Of course, if the Yankees make the post season, Joba if healthy, will exceed that 30+ rule andd it concerns me quite a bit.

The Phil Hughes situation, back-to-back years missing months of the season, means it may take until 2011 for him to go 190-210 innings. That’s if he doesn’t wind up on milk cartons again.

Anyone bet the game tonite will be cancelled due to the hurricane? Dallas isn’t that far from Houston.

it may take until 2011 for him to go 190-210 innings

And 2011 will be his age 25 season, so he’d still have plenty of time to put together an excellent career.

I think the Yankees are going to have to come up with a somewhat more creative way to break all these young pitchers in over the next year or so.  You know, all those whacky things we talked about over the off-season, like having two guys share a rotation slot with one starting on a strict pitch count and the other relieving him, or alternating three guys in two rotation slots, etc, etc.

[38] - I had started that comment thinking it was just a fluctuation, and could argue that it wasn’t necessarily his hand.  Here though we can say his performance is down due to his hand so it’s good he got some time, so the metric is useful.

Anyone bet the game tonite will be cancelled due to the hurricane? Dallas isn’t that far from Houston.

But Houston’s too close to New Orleans.

No rain in the forecast for Dallas until early morning hours on Wednesday.  The Wednesday game is more likely to be affected, but even that doesn’t look too bad—scattered thunderstorms, not a whole lot of wind.

Why no new news on Joba?  I’m dyin’ over here!

“Of course, if the Yankees make the post season, Joba if healthy, will exceed that 30+ rule andd it concerns me quite a bit.”

Your concerned about the 30+ in the playoffs? I think you throw that book out of the window at that point and let the pitcher pitch. That is what I hope they would do. I dont see how you can stop your “ace” from pitching big innings in the biggest games because of a hypothetical number. Every pitcher is different…30+ is merely a conservative guideline like 100 pitches in a start.

“But Houston’s too close to New Orleans.”

Whats that supposed to mean asshole? (I’m a NOLA resident during the school year)

Dcristal, Are you a Tulane student?  I taught there briefly.

yes i am. What did you teach professor?

when my brain begins to reel from my literary labors, i make an occasional cheese dip

Because based on the raw zone rating, Melky is right there with the best. But why should a centerfielder be penalized for not having as many balls hit his way?

He’s not being penalized.  Think of it like chances = PA or Innings.  We’re looking at value to the team here, not ability.  On a rate basis, Melky’s been valuable to the extent of the chances he’s seen, but he’s seen fewer chances than others, so his overall value to the team is lower than it would be on a team that had more balls hit to CF.  That’s a question of opportunity, not ability.  You do raise an interesting point, maybe RS/162 should instead be RS per average chances for a given position in a full season, or at least I could add a column for that.  I think I’ll do that going forward.  So for Melky, we’d look at RS/462 chances, which would make him (462*.921 - 462*.894) = +12 on plays made above average, +11 on runs saved.

Which is why statistical analysis of defense is inherently limited.  MGL says that anything less than two full seasons worth of data is suspect.  And since meaningful changes in true talent can certainly happen over that kind of time frame, projecting defense is pretty much a fool�s errand.  With a few notable exceptions on either end of the spectrum, you�re almost better off just assuming that everybody will be more or less average.

Yeah, Chris Dial says we should assume a spread of 5 runs in either direction from what a full single season’s data tells us, there’s a lot of noise in here.  While I try to quantify defense statistically here because my aim is objectivity, we have to remember the error bars.

Your concerned about the 30+ in the playoffs? I think you throw that book out of the window at that point and let the pitcher pitch. That is what I hope they would do. I dont see how you can stop your “ace” from pitching big innings in the biggest games because of a hypothetical number. Every pitcher is different…30+ is merely a conservative guideline like 100 pitches in a start.

The 30+ rule has been a pretty good guide as far as increasing a pitcher’s workload, and I think it’s a legitimate concern with Joba.  We have to remember, he’s really young.  While I do think the playoffs are a different consideration and would be handled appropriately, I think Don’s points are valid.  Missing a few starts wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world for Joba in the big picture.  Get him to say 140-150 innings this year if by some miracle the Yanks make the playoffs, then he’s likely good for 180 next year, and then he should be a full-time starter from 2010 on, when he’ll still be just 24.

I taught Tulane students.

your not the professor that had an affair with the 17 year old, are you? That is the vibe I am getting.

your not the professor that had an affair with the 17 year old, are you? That is the vibe I am getting.

Yeah, that’s him.  He’s cleverly disguising himself as a Yankee fan, but in truth he’s just trolling for new pubescent dating material.

Yeah, that’s him.  He’s cleverly disguising himself as a Yankee fan, but in truth he’s just trolling for new pubescent dating material.

How ‘bout it, dristal?

awwwkward….i am transferring

How ‘bout it, dcristal?

dcristal, you should totally go for it.  He’ll sweep you off your feet with the dulcet sounds of Gogol and Pushkin. 

Or bore you to tears, whichever.

Boring students into submission is a popular pedagogical tool, after all.

Boring students into submission is a popular pedagogical tool, after all.

Boy, don’t I know it.

Any Joba news?

And so it begins:

Maybe Joba isn’t quite ready to handle the workload of starting.

Tyler Kepner, I expected better from you.

Which Tyler Kepner have you been reading, Bubba?

The good one, I’d thought.

Which Tyler Kepner have you been reading, Bubba?

Kepner may not be amazing, but he’s a bit smarter than the average bear, in turn, putting him a couple of steps above most NY sports writers.

winning tonight is very important to me. i feel feelings of dread

The only sad thing is that the Yankees now do not have their best eighth inning guy. They were not using him in that role, because they are imbeciles. But as long as he was healthy, he was always an option.

Now that option is gone. So, we rise in unison in asking the all important question:

“Who will pitch teh eighth??!!!11!!!”

This is just too perfect.

(via Bronxbanter)

SG, I had one way to account for OOZ using RZR. 

First, you get each team’s GB and FB totals.

Second, you calculate the rate that each position in the league makes OOZ plays on GB by subtracting the other infielder’s BIZ and OOZ and that position’s BIZ plays first.  Divide OOZ by the remainder to get the rate for the league.  Do the same for OFers but on FB.

At least this way it accounts for a team’s GB and FB tendencies, plus it doesn’t penalize players for weird BIP distributions, since they’re not docked for any play another fielder on their team made or was in their zone.

OF course you have to estimate GB/FB the player actually saw while in the field unless you parse actual PBP data.  It’s probably not a huge deal in most cases where the player has a lot of innings played, but it’s still an issue.  This also doesn’t account for handedness of pitchers or hitters.

I still don’t like RZR as much as ZR.  The numbers I got are way more extreme than normal ZR, and I just don’t trust the new methods BIS has.

Thank you, Bubba. 

Goddamn that press release made my day.

Whats that supposed to mean asshole?

It’s a Grateful Dead lyric.  But by all means, you should always take offense at any offhand remark that you don’t understand.  You’ll get much farther in life by calling people names first and asking questions later.

So Kepner is the first dodo to step up and say what I predicted would be a race to say so?

Joba! Get back in the bullpen and pitch the 8th. Who do you think you are, a starter?

Wasn’t Kepner the one NY MSM guy who admitted that he was wrong about moving Chamberlain to the rotation?  So now he does another 180.  He must be planning to run for elective office.

Read what Kepner says - it’s maybe x, maybe y, maybe z.  Well, here:

Maybe Joba isn’t quite ready to handle the workload of starting. Maybe he needs to back off a bit during games and pace himself. Or maybe he did nothing wrong and he is simply unlucky. Hard to tell at this point.

You’ll get much farther in life by calling people names first and asking questions later.

I think it’s understandable, given recent history, for some folks to have a strong reaction regarding NO, especially given his qualifier regarding his location.  And some slack giving.

Nothing more than that.  I can’t wait for tonight’s game.  I’m not sure if I can be properly rational to stick around to make any contribution with the chatter.  But hopefully, victory and I’ll everyone’s snark, pissing matches, and celebrating.

So he’s pandering to all possible points of view.  Definitely running for office.

The annotated “Truckin’” for us Grateful Dead impaired.

I will *enjoy* everyone’s etc.

:banana:

I think it’s understandable, given recent history, for some folks to have a strong reaction regarding NO, especially given his qualifier regarding his location.  And some slack giving.

Calling people assholes when you admittedly don’t know the meaning of what they said is understandable?  Sorry, not buying.  How about a little slack giving in the first place?

If you’re having a conversation in a bar, and somebody says, “What’s that supposed to mean?” then they’ll probably get a simple answer and that’s the end of it.  But if they say, “What’s that supposed to mean, asshole?” then they almost certainly don’t get a polite answer and it is definitely not the end of it.

Oh man, the Yankees won’t say what the MRI revealed, but Joba is visiting Dr. James Andrews.

Is visiting him ever not a bad thing?

Could just be caution - hey, look at my MRI and my arm motion and confirm there’s no structural issue that led to this very minor strain.

I like that line of thinking!

I’m just trying to recall a player being flown to see Dr. Andrews for something like that. To Google with me!

Okay, phew, I have found a number of players who visited Andrews and were told that they were okay.

Anyone see the lineup?  Nady at DH with Abreu in LF…bah…Sexson at 2b???????????? What the fuck?  Really?  Really?  I hate everything.

Okay, nevermind. I’m an idiot.  Sexson at 1B, Cano at second.

For some reason, I didn’t see Cano’s name, and Pete Abe has 2B next to Sexson so I started to panic.

Still would rather see Giambi.

MC, didn’t mean to “moralize” or whatever, and there was provocation. 

I’ll mind my own business.

...there was provocation.

???