[disclosure:  i know anything can happen in a 5 game series]

That being said, it’s easy for me to draw up a scenerio where Detroit beats the yankees.  CC has a bad outing, and then Verlander dominates in games 2 and 5.

I just can’t see how the Twins pull it off. 

So, go Twins (in 30)

Damned “smart” quotes.

Good stuff from the two a yiz.
Francesser said AJ told Joe he’s uncomfortable throwing his curve to Posado with men on base.
Go extra innings!

Nice job, MC.

Francesser said AJ told Joe he’s uncomfortable throwing his curve to Posado with men on base.
Go extra innings!

There’s a solution for this, A.J. - don’t allow any batters to reach base.

Mauer accounts for almost half of the WAR in that lineup.  Wow.

Just realized that I’m going to miss most of this game driving my kids around to various extracurricular activities.  So I hope it isn’t one for the ages.

Why would AJ admit that?  Why tell the other team not to expect the curve ball in those situations?

“Francesser said AJ told Joe”

Which he knows how?

What metric would capture this, anyway?  Does FIP?

Assuming the Twins win, and I think there’s about a 80% chance they will, is it best to start Burnett in the dome in game three as opposed to in Yankee Stadium for game 2?  My feeling is he’s pretty excitable anyway, but the noise in the dome may really affect him more than Pettitte. Just a thought and it appears the decision is already made.

It is commonly said that buying a house is the biggest purchase most Americans will ever make. Having a kid is like buying six houses. Except that they don’t increase in value, you can’t sell them and after 16 years they’ll probably say they hate you. - WSJ

Burnett has pitched better at home.  Pettitte has pitched better on the road.

Mauer accounts for almost half of the WAR in that lineup.  Wow.

He’s flown under the radar, but you could make a case for him as the AL MVP.

[8] - Is there anything out there to give the notion that they wouldn’t start Burnett Game 2?  Just curious, I’ve been out of the loop a bit the last few days.

you can’t sell them

Damn!  Busted.

after 16 years they’ll probably say they hate you

Really, this only comes up maybe five or six times a day.  Of course, she spends six hours at school and two more at practice, plus another eight sleeping, so it’s about once an hour.

If Verlander is going in game #2, what about bumping AJ to game one and saving CC for the matchup?

I think we can all agree that the following probably has more impact on the upcoming series than anything that happens in Minny today:

Phil Hughes has shaved.

-Jennings

“Michael Cuddyer, 1B (.276/.342/.520, 1.3 WAR)”

0.862 OPS is only worth 1.3 games at 1b?  Ok, it’s slugging heavy, and maybe Teix pulls the distribution.

Jeez, guess I’ll have to start reading Lohud now.

going to miss most of this game

I’m gonna miss it because after our pizza thread the other day, I decided it was worth the hour long ride to the one place in Portland for near-new-york quality pizza. Probably won’t get back until the 23rd inning or so.

Which brings us to another food discussion: hot dogs. Around here, the best hot dog is at a push cart outside Home Depot. I got to discussing hot dogs with my wife, who is from Chicagoland, and she asked me “What makes a New York hot dog so much better than a Chicago hot dog ?”

I pointed out that you can eat a New York Hot Dog at a baseball game in October.

“Brett Gardner does not expect to start in the playoffs.”

Oh well.

[16] Fangraphs gives him 2.1, probably because he’s mostly played RF rather than 1B.

0.862 OPS is only worth 1.3 games at 1b?  Ok, it’s slugging heavy, and maybe Teix pulls the distribution.

Apparently he usually plays RF (as per fangraphs) and his defense is dragging his value down.  They put him at 2.1 wins, probably because of a different replacement level.

Anyone know when they’ll set the start times for the ALDS Game 3’s on Sunday?

Yeah, most of Cuddyer’s WAR is as a RF.  I thought it must be the defense, but ZR actually hates him less than UZR.  His baserunning grades as average also.

Like Tree says, it’s probably an issue with how one of us sets replacement level, and/or it could also be a park factor issue.

Another bit for Lohud relevant to the discussion in the last thread: Burnett says he’s uncomfortable throwing his curve to Posada with runners on base. So, something like calling pitches from the bench wouldn’t alleviate that. But, of course, whether that fear is grounded in anything real is a distinct question from whether Burnett has it.

[24] I don’t see that at Lohud.  See [3] above though.

It’s confirmed—the “long” series it is, starting tomorrow.  So do I have this right?  It’s down to Marte/Gaudin/Joba for 2 bullpen spots? 

And assuming Cervelli sticks because of the Molina-Burnett decision, there’s one non-obvious bench spot—can we assume Guzman gets the nod over Shelley?  Or does the fact that it appears Gardner will get no starts obviate the need for another pinchrunner?

Shelley no longer has a locker with the Yanks.

Burnett in game 2.

Let’s go extra innings!

Probably won’t get back until the 23rd inning or so.

I’m hoping you get to see the majority of the game.

Burnett got his Randy Johnson personal caddy (Flaherty in the earlier case). I hope he pitches better than Randy Johnson did in 2005 ALDS.

Is it wrong of me to root for Detroit simply on the basis that it will be more satisfying to beat them ? ESPN loves them some Tigers.

It sort of looks like both these teams could lose this game, at the same time.

Yikes, biggest game of the year and the Twins have two guys hitting a punchless .228 in their lineup.

Why AJ in game 2? I know AJ has been better at home, Battle Cat better on the road, and Battle Cat could use the extended rest of not pitching til Sunday, but is Battle Cat not a groundball pitcher? If game three is on turf, wouldn’t that be sub-optimal?

Anyway, Porcello is looking good so far.

[30]
Aren’t you out getting pizza?

Tigers score first.

Apparently, getting drunk before big games boosts performance.  It’s the Babe Ruth regiment.

Cabrera decided to play baseball today.  His wife probably beat some sense into him.

Cabrera hit that ball like he thought it was his wife.

Too soon?

So I just signed up for the MLB Postseason video package, I had MLB.tv last season.  I’ve got the “choose your camera angle” stuff, but is there any way just to get the TBS feed?  There’s no one camera angle I want, I think the producers generally do a good job of getting the action caught, and certainly better than I can do.

I pointed out that you can eat a New York Hot Dog at a baseball game in October.

Funny.

I’d assume the best dogs were from the New Jersey and Delaware area. I don’t think there are enough good dogs in NYC for there to be much of a boast.

[34] They don’t open until 5. Not leaving until 4.

getting drunk before big games boosts performance

It certainly helps the blogging.

Anyone else surprised Nick Punto reached into the positive WAR?

[40] I remember going to the Sabrett factory in, I think, Jersey City when I was a kid. This was during the Johnson administration.

Nathan’s has finally started shipping to the west coast, including the natural casing variety (the only way to fly, IMO). Only see the latter at select Safeway stores.

Whats the over-under on them walking Mauer even if it brings in a run?

What’s with the “mowing pattern” on the turf ? Do they run the Zamboni over it to make it look like they had to mow the nylon ?

I just grabbed the post season mlb.tv package. How do you change it to auto switch the camera feeds? Anyone know?

Mitrian pickoff move, there.

[43] They must have added grittiness to the calculation.

Lotta Yankee fans in the house tonite, cheering for Jeter. “MVP ! MVP !”

I didn’t know he was that big a draw in Minnesota.

Why in the hell is Porcello so concerned with runners?

Pinstriper, what’s the name of that pizza place again? I am too lazy to search the previous threads for it, and ask because I move back to Portland in a month.

apizza scholl’s, [52]

Is it just me or does Chip Cary say the stupidest things?

“Mauer… is walked”

“Porcello, a young 20 year old.”

Why in the hell is Porcello so concerned with runners?

Battling?

[39] I love the quality. Way better than last years product, but this raw camera feed thing is very strange. I wonder if it is always this way or if there’s an error.

Carey is a goddamn idiot

Teddy,

Apizza Scholls. On Hawthorne Blvd.

Damndest thing is they started out in the country (hence, Scholls, which is just a wide spot in the road between farms), about 2 minutes from me. Then they became known after being featured in the paper, and people were parking on the side of the country roads and walking in ditches to get there. County shut them down for the traffic hazard and they moved into town.

Shoot me an email when you get here and we can meet for a beer.

[58] Where are you located?  have had to spend lots of time in state as my fiancee is from eugene

[59] North of Newberg, South of Beaverton, West of Sherwood. Draw those lines and where they meet is pretty much where I am.

[47] You have to select an older game on the Media Center Homepage. Once that game starts you can click on “Todays Games” and select the TBS feed.

TBS voices sound like a game being broadcast by John O’Hurley and James Woods.

better pull Baker

[39]
Don’t open the “postseason tv” button, just hit the MLB.tv button.

this lineup sucks

I’m not one to take too much pride in NJ, but we do make a great hotdog.  Lots of good choices in the north Jersey area.

http://www.hollyeats.com/JerseyDogs.htm

Porcello looks scary good today.  Let’s go Twins!

[67] is that why Matt Tolbert can’t get around on him?

[66] Dude, I used to ride my bike to the Galloping Hill place on that page. They closed all winter long.

Anyone know if Spirito’s in Elizabeth is still open ?

I’m not one to take too much pride in NJ, but we do make a great hotdog.  Lots of good choices in the north Jersey area.

Yeah, but Connecticut has Super Duper Weenie.

I’ll be sitting with the bleacher creatures for game 2 (don’t worry my 0-5 streak is limited to the regular season)....  If it’s the twins, I might spontaneously convert into pure energy when the creatures start heckling pavano.

LET’S GO TO THE BULLPENS

Well lads (and lady), I’ll see you in about 14 innings.

[71] Kronic, don’t take this personally but I sorta hope you lose your tickets to the game.

Porcello was brilliant.

This kid is 20? And all we got was Brackman in 2007? Damn you, Dombrowski!

Do or die game in the 6th inning with the tying run on base and you have to bring in Zach Miner?  Wow.  Just wow.

I don’t know why, but I’m definitely rooting for the Twins.

That was unbelievably misplayed by Granderson, although I am not sure a good jump would get him to the ball. Bases loaded.

Miner is just doing everything he can to throw this one away.

Pin, will do. Also, was going to ask why it would take you an hour to get to a place in the SE but your location and knowing you will probably be on either the 5 or 26 at that time of day explains it.

Tough to take it personally when you call me “Kronic”

MATT TOLBERT?

Do or die game in the 6th inning with the bases loaded and you can’t pinch hit for Matt Tolbert?  Wow.  Just wow.

That ugly bullpen is the reason I’m rooting for the tigers. That and their inept offense.

If you are Leyland, assuming you dont instantly drop dead from 96 years of smoking 4 packs a day, dont you HAVE to bring in Verlander for the 7th and Ate? Can you trust anyone else not to blow your season?

I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a team swing as hard as the Tigers and make less contact on the first pitch.

The Twins DH has a career OPS of .720

Does either team really win this game?

I like Darling, but he just said, “He was literally skating on thin ice” about someone.

Mauer will bat at least once before the end of the game. I expect something big.

[85] I trust Nick Punto for the first out.  only use verlander when needed

Nationals castaway Jon Rauch?

If you are Leyland, assuming you dont instantly drop dead from 96 years of smoking 4 packs a day, dont you HAVE to bring in Verlander for the 7th and Ate

Theoretically, he can probably trust Lyon and Fu-Te Ni I guess.  Verlander has never pitched a game in relief in either the majors or the minors, so there maybe some understandable reluctance to see how that goes right now.

Nationals had a surplus of quality bullpen arms.  Don’t worry.

Jon Rauch allowed the 2005 Yankees six consecutive HR in ESPN 2K5 before Nationals Manager wised up

That ugly bullpen is the reason I’m rooting for the tigers. That and their inept offense.

In my head I root for the Tigers for the same reason.  But irrationality - it sounds like Steve Phillips in my brain - screams that Verlander x 2 is the most potent bomb either of these teams can muster.

Apparently Rauch and his sweet neck tattoo were the right call

Fu-Te Ni is probably my favorite reliever name as of right now.

[94] - Is he related to Chase Wright?

That was stupid. I mean, the bunt.

[97] Just keep him away from your droids.

Jose Mijares is round.