I think Wang’s performance in the playoffs has not been discussed enough.In both of his games he gave us little to no chance to win .Why? I think he struggled the second half physically and no one is discussing it.I am not sure Santana is worth all three but I do like Rowand.

Ignoring contracts for a minute, Santana plus 171 innings of 5.71 ERA + Rowand might make the Yankees a win or a win and a half better in 2008.

Is there any way to do a different set of analysis for the playoffs?  Because that guy with a 5.71 ERA can probably hold his own in the regular season during the regular season, but is a guaranteed disaster in the playoffs.  But he will also guarantee the Yankees lose Game 4 of the ALDS again, because his name will be Mike Mussina.

It’s just my anecdotal observation, but I feel like the Yankees keep going into huge playoff games with a shaky starter (Kevin Brown, Jaret Wright, Roger Clemens’ corpse) and that’s ultimately their demise.  Sometimes even your horse lets you down (Mr. Wang, I’m talking to you), but I have a lot more confidence in Wang, Pettitte, Chamberlain, Hughes, and Kennedy holding up throughout the playoffs next year than thinning their rotation to get Santana.

And keeping Melky instead of signing Rowand is a no-brainer.  For starters, it’s possible that Melky could be just as good if not better than Rowand.  He was basically at his 65% performance for 2/3 of the season.  If he could stop slumping out of the gates and wearing down at the end of the season, he’s basically already as good as Rowand.

Also, do the defensive metrics factor in arm strength?  Melky gunned down a ton of guys at the plate.  Can Rowand do that?

Here’s another question: is Kennedy actually “good”?  Does he belong in the same conversation as Joba and Hughes, or is he just another talented-but-limited guy like Clippard?

At least this rumor, as baseless as it may be, represents a fair exchange of talent, as SG’s breakdown indicates.

One thing you didn’t seem to completely address, SG, is the long-term cost/benefit of the trade.  What if Kennedy becomes Mike Mussina, and Melky turns into Bobby Abreu?  Santana would have to be Josh Beckett in the post season to justify such an exchange.

What do you think of Kennedy’s long term prospects, SG?  Should he be as untouchable as Hughes/Joba?  He looked awfully impressive last year, and I’m concerned he might get (unfairly) traded because his velocity is relatively low.

SG,

I do not have any ML contacts, nor do I have the awesome credibility of MLB Trade Rumors, but I like idle speculation.

How about making that trade, and having Mike Cameron as the CF? He should cost way less that Rowand, both in terms of dollars and years. Something like 3/24 should do it, or maybe 2/20.

—-Is there any way to do a different set of analysis for the playoffs?  Because that guy with a 5.71 ERA can probably hold his own in the regular season during the regular season, but is a guaranteed disaster in the playoffs.  But he will also guarantee the Yankees lose Game 4 of the ALDS again, because his name will be Mike Mussina.—-

I had the same question as Nate, but for the exact opposite reason.  The 5.71 ERA guy’s contribution in the postseason is going to consist of making sure Mo has enouch bench space in the bullpen.  Game 4 of the ALDS would be started by Pettite.

Apparently Nate and I have the same question/concern about Kennedy, but evaluating his future will be an important task for the Yankees going forward.  His performance record is awfully good.

also, re: Wang…..what was the final status of that disgusting fingernail?  the guy was a real trooper in the middle of the season pitching with that thing, and maybe it finally caught up with him.

RE: Rowand’s arm - he had 11 assists with the Phillies last year - the number being a little higher than his numbers with the White Sox. Looks like he had a peak season at 29 with the Phillies.

Is there any way to do a different set of analysis for the playoffs?

Yeah.  Basically Santana >>> Wang.

Here’s another question: is Kennedy actually “good”? 
What do you think of Kennedy’s long term prospects, SG?  Should he be as untouchable as Hughes/Joba?  He looked awfully impressive last year, and I’m concerned he might get (unfairly) traded because his velocity is relatively low.

I like Kennedy.  I don’t think he’s as good as his minor league stats or his brief major league stint make him appear to be, but his CAIRO projection seems pretty reasonably to me and would make him a solid #3.  I think he could end up with a Brad Radke type career, which is pretty damn good.  In this day and age, teams pay quite a bit for that.

I’d be willing to trade him in the right deal, but I think his lack of top-end velocity limits his value to other teams so I’m not sure he’d bring back what he’d be worth to the Yankees if he can give them 200 innings of 4-4.5 ERA for a few years.

I do think Kennedy has some potential upside as well, if he picks up a little more velocity or if he improves his breaking pitch a bit.  I look forward to watching him in 2008.

Also, do the defensive metrics factor in arm strength?

I didn’t include those yet but I will probably add them at some point.  Rowand did have 11 assists last year, but I think given his age and the possibility that he will decline beyond my aging factors that him and Melky may be a wash defensively.

I agree, swapping Melky for Rowand just seems like a bad move.  If Damon was healthy and could play CF every day then it may not be a bad idea to include Melky in a trade for Santana.  I’d actually like Melky/Wang/Kennedy for Santana a lot more if it didn’t include Rowand as a free agent signing.

Incidentally there’s a typo in my post. 5.71 ERA should be a 5.17 ERA.

Because that guy with a 5.71 ERA can probably hold his own in the regular season during the regular season, but is a guaranteed disaster in the playoffs.  But he will also guarantee the Yankees lose Game 4 of the ALDS again, because his name will be Mike Mussina.

i agree with your overall point, but had the Yankees just started Moose in game 4, they might have won that game.  he didn’t pitch that badly.

of course, i thought starting Wang was the right move, but Moose wasn’t a disaster.

I had the same question as Nate, but for the exact opposite reason.  The 5.71 ERA guy’s contribution in the postseason is going to consist of making sure Mo has enouch bench space in the bullpen.  Game 4 of the ALDS would be started by Pettite.

If that guy is Kei Igawa, sure.  But if you trade Wang and Kennedy in that deal, then your 2008 rotation is Santana, Pettitte, Hughes, Chamberlain, and Mussina.  And Mussina will get more than a fifth starter’s worth of innings throughout the season because you’ll have to ration the innings on Hughes and Chamberlain.  So there’s a very good chance that Mussina ends up a starter in the playoffs, even if you assume there are no injuries to the staff, or Pettitte decides to retire, etc.

Anyway, this is mostly just me moaning about having to watch pivotal Yankee playoff games over the past four years started by fringy pitchers.

One thing you didn’t seem to completely address, SG, is the long-term cost/benefit of the trade.  What if Kennedy becomes Mike Mussina, and Melky turns into Bobby Abreu?  Santana would have to be Josh Beckett in the post season to justify such an exchange.

Yeah, and that’s the risk/problem with trading young guys with upside.  But most of the time they don’t become Mike Mussina and Bobby Abreu, they become Tony Armas Jr. and Brandon Lyon.

Very rarely a pitcher becomes Mike Mussina. Ian Kennedy could be that good, but at this time, my own very subjective probability of that event is less than 1 percent.

Mussina at his time not only commanded a lot of quality pitches, but he threw pretty darn hard (94-95).

Heck, I would be ecstatic if Phil Hughes ends up having Mike Mussina’s career.

Also, a small sample for a pitcher first time through the ML hitters is hardly a good predictive tool. Last year, Jeff Karstens was a pretty good pitcher in a small sample, having had the benefit of pitching in Seattle’s park. This year, however, his frailties were exposed. Ian Kennedy, despite being a much, much better pitcher than Jeff Karstens, isn’t exactly a sure thing.

Also, Wang’s home/road splits are a worry. I do believe there is some truth to the speculation that Yankees doctor home environment to give Wang every chance to be successful (not cutting the grass in front of the home plate for a sustained period of time before his starts). If this is true, the Twins won’t accept a package with Wang anyway; they are way too savvy an organization with scouting to be fooled by Wang’s numbers alone. They will want Phil Hughes for Santana. And straight up, I will probably do it, perhaps not with Melky and Kennedy thrown in.

Crap, tons of typos above.

“Mussina at his prime ...”

“... perhaps not with Melky and Wang thrown in.”

Very rarely a pitcher becomes Mike Mussina. Ian Kennedy could be that good, but at this time, my own very subjective probability of that event is less than 1 percent.

Of course.  I’m not sure I agree that it’s at 1%, however.  I guess I’m wondering what, say, Kennedy’s 80th percentile projection looks like.  There’s no guarantee he becomes a front of the rotation starter, but there’s probably a CHANCE he does.  I guess the question is: when does a pitcher become more or less untouchable?  When his chances of becoming an ace exceed 10%?  20%?  30%?  Where is that line?  Joba and Hughes seem to have crossed it, so maybe looking at their projections holds the answer.

80th percentile projection for performances of about a decade? I don’t think the reliability of such a projection would be any good.

My point is Mussina was not just an ace, he was a dominant ace for a long period of time. Brett Myers was an ace for an year or so, and the underappreciated Aaron Harang has been an ace of the Cincinnati staff for a few years now. So, my issue was with that particular aspect of the comparison. If I rephrase your point to include aces and not necessarily dominant aces like Schilling or Mussina, I guess that does have some appeal to it.

That being said, we are talking about Johan Santana. This is arguably the most dominant ace of the twenty-first century we are talking about, and who is still young and figures to be very good over the next few years.

If you have a chance to land Johan Santana, and the stumbling block is Ian Kennedy, I wouldn’t hold back. Of course, it is not so simple, presumably others would need to be involved to complete the deal. But I am not sold on Melky being anything beyond a solid major leaguer. And Wang has his issues.

If this deal came to a pass, it makes all the sense in the world to pull the trigger, if you are the Yankees. The crucial question is, does it make sense for the Twins? I doubt it, but who knows.

I can’t speak to MLB Trade Rumors’ credibility

Sure you can.  You’re just being nice.

Kennedy’s 80th percentile projection is
ERA: 3.89
ERA+: 115
W/L: 14-7
IP: 190
H: 178
ER: 82
HR: 18
BB: 66
K: 161

That being said, we are talking about Johan Santana.

I think a lot of us are forgetting just how good Santana is.  He’s as good of a pitcher as there is in baseball right now, and at 29 he still should have a long productive career ahead of him if he can stay healthy.

What is Santana’s injury history, if any?  And so I can do my own research, what’s a good place to check this kind of info?

Santana has been quite durable since he reached the majors.  2007 was his fourth consecutive year of pitching at least 219 innings.  In any event, I too would like to see Johan remain a Twin (or to seek his fortunes in the National League).  As for the Yanks lacking a no. 1 in the playoffs, if Hughes and Joba progress the way we all hope they will fill that role.  Also, let’s not forget that Cleveland’s two studs completely tanked in the ALCS.  There really are no guarantees in that respect.

I haven’t done any research on Johann either but I feel safe in saying he’s been the best starter in the AL since 04 .  Buuuutttt I’ll bet yas all no one in RS nation would trade Beckett for him even if the Twinks threw in a resigned Hunter and a top prospect. Now I have to go watch the Rox rock. Please….

But Santana does have a track record in the postseason.  As a starter he’s pitched well.

by the by- somebody posted this in an earlier thread-

“I can’t stand Youkilis, but I can’t stand a team that wouldn’t have him because of his religion.  So however reluctantly, I prefer the Red Sox to win.”

when i looked into this i was initially up in arms and was getting into the idea of the religious crazies getting bombed (what cost jesus?). however when i mentioned this to someone at work today she actually relayed to me that the rockies have got a pitcher on their team named jason hirsh who happens to be jewish. he’s 25 and started 19 games this year for the rockies. he actually had his leg broken in one start and went on to win the game. suck on that, karstens.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/23/sports/baseball/23rockies.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

aside from the banishment of porn they sound like decent peeps. i feel relieved that i can quell this stew regarding my two systems of belief and continue to root against what i know to be yucky and poop-faced.

hey cool it’s carl yastrzemski. that’s pretty cool actually.

Well that was an impressive inning. I hope something bad happens to boston. Fires anyone?

oy.

to be honest i find watching pedrioia hit homers kind of cool because it makes me feel like i could do it. what really annoys me is julio lugo’s presence in the world series.

I really wish JD Drew would go back to sucking.  That would be great.

memo to hurdle:  ching ming francis is done. IMDB here I come.

In the frame of mind I’m currently in I would trade TOOOLAWISSZZKI for Jeter inna heartbeat.

yeah OLD he’s a stud. but in spirit, i think that’s jeter’s rbi. let’s hope francois can get his frackin uct together.

francis looks like karstens’ sadder, genetically superior big brother.

how do you let that happen you douche-nozzles.

“We’ve replaced Colorado’s normally good pitcher with his lookalike scrub from the Yankees, let’s see if anyone notices.”

This Blows on so many levels.  Douche nozzles is a phrase I will surely use at work tommorow. Eeelz wanna take the train up to New Haven saturday, drown our worries in Belgians , Then drown ourselves in LI sound. Woodford reserved… Lets see . whats on tap for the rest of the evening ...Kingpin or Band of Brothers?

Can’t go wrong with either, but seeing the paratroopers swoop in and kick some ass on DDay might help with the frustration.

the punisher is a ridiculously bad movie. the scene where his whole family gets killed and he gets blown off the dock is laugh out loud funny.

Da Puj .... Vanessa Angel is currently beating CPT. Winters. However that may change.  If theres ever been a better miniseries than BOBrothers let me know.

EELz .. Do ya mean the Mickey mantle punisher or the guy from rocky 11teen? I believe Travolta cameo’d in the Mickey remake.

Thomas Jayne thats the Mantle guy from 61.

Thurman that sounds great but only if you’re talking about real belgians. they’re a delicious, gamey people.

it’s interesting (to me)- being a yankee fan, the majority of my hatred of the sox came naturally, but a healthy dollop of extra loathing came along when i lost my high school girlfriend to Harvard at 18. this was in 2004, which did not help matters. i remember calling her for some support after game 7 and she was just a wasted pile of gams. everyone in the background was screaming, and i could practically hear them running around in the nude. anyhow we broke up the following summer and i have not seen her since, but my hatred of these turd sandwich chowder heads intensified lots due to this bitch. HOWEVER, i recently came across some photos of her on the internet, and upon finding her a lot fatter, uglier, and generally stumpier than when we were bumpin’, i feel like a new man and generally don’t give a shit about her or this goddam team unless we’re playing them. it’s a relief.

yeah mickey mantle punisher not ivan drago

taboo is on but not for the squeamish. skin cutting rituals.

either o you guys have HD TVs?

My hatred comes from seeing them walk around our vastly superior town with their stupid B-hats on and look of self-righteous gloating like Jimmy Fallon in that stupid, cheesy movie.  I long for more guys like the ones in the Yonkers hotel.

Eelz ... Cant consume actual Belgian citizens in my domocile. Just they’re lovely Ales. Glad you got over the Scumqueen of you’re youth, I did it too. Several times.  I think this Ellsbury lad is gonna be a pain in the ass for a while.  SSfan if you be lurkin good luck to ya.  You a good guy.  Eeez shoot me an e-mail if the the suicide pact sounds feasable. GO ROX. How do you spell feasable?

i was talking to my boss about that movie tonight. just knowing it exists disturbs me on many different levels.

haha i will have to let you know about that thurm. in all honesty i did think if we made it to a decider in the WS ourselves we should all meet for a drink. it would have been bizarre and creepy, sorta like a NAMBLA support group meeting. but lots of fun i’d bet, sorta like a NAMBLA support group meeting.

i’m out for a while.

take care boyz

I have HD but I wont even watch scarred or those effin birth shows. I actually boxed in the early 80’s. I don’t gross out easily.

Nambla shit is kinda cool , as long as no kids or adults are involved. I guess. Too much South Park for me.

Thanks for the well wishes OTF! I haven’t been lurking much, been on travel (in Maine for work, surrounded by “pink hats” at the local sports bar). I don’t believe in suicide pacts anymore; after three presentations on global warming in the last week, suicide seems beside the point. But I sure am enjoying baseball while it lasts. And thanks to the collective deer/headlights thing on the Rockies, I even have time to blog during the game. I’m pretty sure I’ve worked harder than Beckett did today. I’m sure you guys aren’t enjoying this… wait, Gagne just came in. Anyway, game 1 is always the least important, so I’m not counting chix yet. Cheers!

The Yanks are going to have their best rotation in a while in 2008.  If the free agents all sign (including Molina and Vizcaino but excluding Doug M.), there is plenty of reason for optimism.  I even have a strange feeling that Ross Ohlendorf is going to be very useful in the bullpen next season.

By the way, both Austin Jackson and Brad Suttle hit HRs today for the Honolulu Sharks of the Hawaii Winter Baseball League.  Following Jackson and Tabata at AA next year is going to be very interesting.

National Association of Marlon Brando Look Alikes?

For whatever reason I’ve never been able to generate that much venom for the Red Sox.  It’s not like I’ll jump for joy if (when) they roll over the Rockies, but if they win, so what?  We’ll just reloadand go at it another round next year.