In the current free agent market, teams pay about $4.5 million per marginal win. So if we use that for 2008 and then decrease it by 3% for each prior season to account for inflation

I’ve been seeing that $4.5m/marginal win for several years now.  Doesn’t seem to change based on inflation, so you probably shouldn’t decrease it in your calculations.

So far Giambi’s been worth around $90 million of the $120 million the Yankees will have paid him.

One thing you’re not including here is playoffs. Not sure how that adjusts it, but Giambi has hit some big playoff HR’s, which probably gets his value a little closer to $120M.

Not sure if that’s entirely true or not Randy, but let’s assume it is.  If we don’t decrease the cost per marginal win for inflation, then Giambi’s total value provided increases by about $10 million, so if he picks up another $10 million of value this season you end up with a $10 million shortfall.

If the Yanks are to be swept in Oakland, let’s hope for some blowouts rather than 14 inning 2-1 losses.

Well, if it weren’t for 2004 and his “mysterious” illnesses (a small tumor and hampered eyesight, IIRC), Giambi could be very close to his marginal value. Since no player is guaranteed to be worth every penny of a long-term contract, because players get injured sometimes and won’t live up to their price tag. If you chalk up 2004 to an injury, it doesn’t seem so bad. I’d be interested to see what the comparable numbers were for Bernie Williams’ bank-busting contract…

“In the current free agent market, teams pay about $4.5 million per marginal win. So if we use that for 2008 and then decrease it by 3% for each prior season to account for inflation

I’ve been seeing that $4.5m/marginal win for several years now.  Doesn’t seem to change based on inflation, so you probably shouldn’t decrease it in your calculations.”

Actually, I would go the other way.  I would guess inflation has been greater than 3% per year over the 2002-preset period.  According to USA Today, the average salary in 2002 was (roughly) $2.38M - this year, it’s 3.15M.  If you assume a constant rate of increase, that’s about 5% inflation per season.

This Doug Pappas article from Baseball Prospectus in 2002 suggests that, for the 2001 season, was about $2 million:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1320

Now, Pappas study is not just for Free Agent contracts, it’s for all players, so I realize that’s not apples to apples, per se…but there is clearly at least *some* inflation between 2002 and now.

“One thing you’re not including here is playoffs. Not sure how that adjusts it, but Giambi has hit some big playoff HR’s, which probably gets his value a little closer to $120M.”

This is an interesting point.  If you adjust for this, do you also have to adjust for the fact that Giambi’s injuries left the Yankees with the corpse of John Olerud at 1B for the 2004 playoffs?

The corpse of John Olerud was fine; the problem arose when the corpse of John Olerud gave way to the desiccated mummy of Tony Clark.

If you assume a constant rate of increase, that’s about 5% inflation per season.

5% inflation means Giambi’s been worth about $80 million to this point, and now we’re looking at a $30-40 million deficit.

With Olerud we were leading 3-0 the ALCS. He did not play anymore that series

With Olerud we were leading 3-0 the ALCS. He did not play anymore that series

That’s because they canceled the 2004 ALCS after 3 games.

I’m still waiting for someone to make a case for staying up to watch the Yankees on the left coast.

I’ll be up anyways. I’ll be lonely without all of you guys in the East?

There is no case whatsoever after the Kansas City series.  Splitting four games at home against a team with an eleven game road losing streak bodes poorly for a West Coast trip against a club with young pitchers the Yanks have never seen before.  Also, both Wang and Pettitte are set to pitch, which means the Yanks will require about 14 runs to win each game.  There, how about that for the reverse jinx!

I’ll be up because I’m a card-carrying masochist.

Question - was any of Giambi’s contract (specifically, 2004) covered by insurance?  If so, that would obviously reduce the Yankees’ cost (offset against the cost of that insurance, which should probably get factored in as well).

I’m still waiting for someone to make a case for staying up to watch the Yankees on the left coast.

To see what crazy antics John and Suzyn get up to when they stay up past their bedtime?

Also, I think we have another week or so before the Yankees leave “need to perform significantly better for the remainder of the season than they were expected to perform at the beginning of the season” territory and enter “discover that they are the 1927 Yankees in disguise” territory.

Eek!  A talking (typing?) tree!

I’m still waiting for someone to make a case for staying up to watch the Yankees on the left coast.

I’ll be up to watch the NBA Finals tonight any way.

So far, Giambi has provided the Yankees with a total of 241 batting runs above a replacement first baseman.

Though you say a 1B, are all his #‘s compared to a first-baseman, or are they correctly split between 1B and DH?  If they aren’t, do you think it would change the numbers significantly?

Question - was any of Giambi’s contract (specifically, 2004) covered by insurance?

My understanding is that teams will typically insure any 3 years of any long-term contract.  Not sure if 2004 was an insured year, or if they spread the risk out.  But that’s a good point. 2004 seems to be the tipping point.  If it was insured it would make a big difference.

I agree with Tree.  I would like to listen so that every time the A’s fail to move a runner over Sterling and Waldman can talk about “moneyball” and demonstrate how little they know about the book, baseball, Billy Beane, the 2008 A’s, life, the universe, and everything.

42.

Though you say a 1B, are all his #’s compared to a first-baseman, or are they correctly split between 1B and DH?  If they aren’t, do you think it would change the numbers significantly?

Nah, I didn’t split between 1B/DH.  Might make a difference of 5-10 runs over the course of the 7 years in favor of Giambi (DHs hit worse than 1B), which is another couple of million of additional value I guess.

The real problem is next year.  Giambi’s not going to be worth what they’d have to pay him, but I’m not sure how they can let their best or second best hitter go, esp. with all the offensive problems they’re having this year.  If they do let him go, they either have to give the same kind of contract to Texeira, go with Miranda/Duncan/Duncan, convert Damon or Matsui, or trade young pitching for a guy whose probably going to cost too much anyway.

I would rather have Giambi on an overpriced one year deal in 2009 than eight years of Teixeira.

Also, if the Yanks could somehow teach Matsui to play 1B, that would give the team some extra flexibility.  However, if they haven’t done so by now, I doubt it will ever happen.

I cannot for the life of me figure out why they (apparently) haven’t even tried Matsui at 1b.  Didn’t he say once that he’d be amenable to it?

But that’s a good point. 2004 seems to be the tipping point.  If it was insured it would make a big difference.

Actually, 2007 they lost more money on him.  Or am I missing the point?

Might make a difference of 5-10 runs over the course of the 7 years in favor of Giambi (DHs hit worse than 1B), which is another couple of million of additional value I guess.

Not significant in the context of how much money we’re discussing then.  I knew DH’s hit worse and he has spent quite a bit of time there, but wasn’t sure if it would be enough to make the numbers look better.

I cannot for the life of me figure out why they (apparently) haven’t even tried Matsui at 1b.  Didn’t he say once that he’d be amenable to it?

They may feel that Giambi is the better player at first (and he may be), and they didn’t want to create a controversy.  So still possible that Matsui is playing first next year.

I would rather have Giambi on an overpriced one year deal in 2009 than eight years of Teixeira.

True, but looking beyond 2009 who is the Yankees’ 1B?  Maybe somebody they drafted this year, but…I still agree no 8 years, but maybe it is better to have him for six, than having a black-hole at first from 2010-2012, and/or needing to spend more in players/$$ to get a possibly inferior player.

Why would Teixeira accept six years?  Remember, the Mets are going to be in the bidding as well.  If the Yanks want Teixeira, they will have to accept AT LEAST 8/170.

Actually, 2007 they lost more money on him.  Or am I missing the point?

True, I was looking at his actual value and not what it cost them so 2004 looks worse than 2007, although you could argue that his 2004 was closer to his peak and thus the lost value there was more damaging to his overall value.

Why would Teixeira accept six years?  Remember, the Mets are going to be in the bidding as well.  If the Yanks want Teixeira, they will have to accept AT LEAST 8/170.

We truly have no idea what the competition will be for Tex come November.  For example, what if the Mets trade for a 1B who has several years on his contract, come July?  Then what?  It is also fair speculation that Boras may *want* to get Tex in a Yankees’ uniform to maximize his endorsement value.

I suppose I’m picking 6 years because I’ve been saying all along that I don’t want the contract for more than that.  I’m certainly not going to change that now.  Part of the problem is, when do the Yankees have to decide on Giambi’s option, vs. when are they allowed to sign Tex?  If there is some overlap, would you be okay if they went hard at Tex for a 6-yr deal, and if that failed keep Giambi?  Or should they just not bother and pick up Giambi’s option?

From among the dudes they’ve drafted recently (including this year), is there anyone who might help next year?  Or, dare I say it, might Eric Duncan finally arrive?

I’d guess that Eric Duncan is the most likely to help at 1B in the next year. Or Juan Miranda, but he’s been down with a shoulder injury several times this year.

Or, dare I say it, might Eric Duncan finally arrive?

As you might say, YM, I just snarfed my chocolate milk.  Good one.

I personally think tex is way overrated. And aside from this past week, he has not been as advertised for the braves.

As you might say, YM, I just snarfed my chocolate milk.  Good one.

I live but to serve

net net, the Giambi contract has actually ROI’d more than most thought it would. Get it? Huh? Huh? Eh? Eh?

Giambi singlehandedly kept the Yankees in the Aaron Boone game. HA HA sox trolls. That was a playoff game, with playoff tv revenue implications, that’s a huge kicker. Might be worth 10 million right there.

Actually W.S. TV revenue implications.

The Yanks really don’t have much in the way of good young first baseman in their system, nor did they just draft any.  At AAA they have Eric Duncan and Miranda, both of whom have plenty to prove.  In Trenton, there is 26 year old Cody Ehlers - who will never see the big leagues.  Their best bet will be to trade for someone at some point.  In any case, I’d rather pick up Giambi’s option in 2009 and see if a deal can be made for a 1B by 2010.  I really don’t think Teixeira is the answer.

Hey SG, you know why you should stay up to watch the games?  (Adopt Hulk Hogan voice circa Rocky III, with strained neck tendons, flecks of spittle flying and bugging eyes) Because it’s gonna HURT ya!  And PAIN is just WEAKness LEAVin’ the body!  RAAUGHHH!  RAUUAGHHHH!!!!

In any case, I’d rather pick up Giambi’s option in 2009 and see if a deal can be made for a 1B by 2010.  I really don’t think Teixeira is the answer.

Fair enough…I don’t think that’s a bad strategy.  If Giambi’s contract HAS to be picked up before Tex can be signed, I think I’d go that route.  If there is some overlap, I think they should pursue Tex before deciding on Giambi.  I *don’t* think getting Tex “at all costs” is the answer though.

I can’t remember his name right now but they did I think draft a HS 1B who has a lot of upside.  I think he was the one that had an OPS over 2.000 last year.  He has a long way to go - super, super optimistically he’ll need 3 years in the minors - but that’s what I was talking about in, “just drafted”.

No one they grabbed in the draft that could possibly play 1B will be ready anytime soon, barring a totally unforeseen explosion and rapid, rapid development. also they guy who OPS over 2.000 is a LF.

I know they’re trying desperately to keep Jesus Montero at C, but chances are he’ll end up at 1B eventually. Is he a possibility at some point next year?

doubtful, he won’t make it past A- this year in all likely hood. Maybe a late call up to A+. The Yankees seem pretty committed to making him a catcher and moving him only if necessary, so they’re moving him pretty slowly.

I personally think tex is way overrated. And aside from this past week, he has not been as advertised for the braves.

Really? For the Braves, Tex has played 116 games and has hit close to .300 with an OBP of about .385 and a SLG of about .540 (I’m gussing his OPS+ has been about 140). How the heck has he been advertised? He’s just a good-to-very-good player. I don’t understand the resistance some of the folks here have to the possibility of signing him. Sure, if the numbers/years get crazy, you can back away. But why wouldn’t the Yankees want to explore the possibility of signing him? Especially considering the crap we have in the minors, especially considering the only way we could trade for a good first baseman will be to trade some blue chip pitching prospects. Sorry for the rant, but Tex is good and he is in his prime with significant years of decline pretty far down the road (6 to 8 years from now).

I can’t speak for anyone else but there’s no resistance on my part to a 29 year old Teixera a 32 year old Teixeira or even a 34 year old Teixeira.  I do not want to see a 38 year old Teixeira though - earing $24 million in a Yankee uniform.  As for trading blue chip pitchers for a 1B, why not if the Yanks have an excess of young pitching?

Tex is a great sign if you limit the years. The problem is I don’t see him looking for anything but a long term contract. If the Yankees can get him for a reasonable amount of time sure, but I doubt he settles for a shorter term contract.

When i said as advertised, I meant this season given his half year performance for atl last year. I feel like signing him will take mucho dollars and years, and it is the giambi mistake all over again except Giambi was better than Tex is now when we got him. A week ago Tex was hitting .270 with 6 homers. The rbis are there but you better be driving runs in when the guy in front of you is on base more than half the time. He is a good 1b though.
I guess I take back “way overrated” but I still think he is overrated. Similar to beltran after his amazing playoff performance.

I would rather have Giambi on an overpriced one year deal in 2009 than eight years of Teixeira.

I’m not so sure.  SG’s analysis seems to suggest that the Giambi contract hasn’t been all that bad, especially if you want to forgive injury seasons.  So why not invest in another free-agent first baseman, especially given the lack of internal options?  While Teixeira may be a click or two below Giambi offensively, he brings better defense and switch-hitting to the table.

Of course I’d want to assess the entire first base market first.  Will Dunn become available?  Gonzalez in San Diego?  Can Matsui play first as some have suggested?  etc.

Tex’s OPS+ right now is actually 123.  I’d hazard that is above-average for a 1B, but certainly not great.  Another thing you can do is look at his VORP, which is 15.1, the same as Jack Cust.  For comparison, Giambi’s VORP is 17.7.  Not sure if Tex’s defense entirely erases that, but they should be close.

I can’t speak for anyone else but there’s no resistance on my part to a 29 year old Teixera a 32 year old Teixeira or even a 34 year old Teixeira.

Right, so a 6-yr contract would probably make sense for the Yankees.  I don’t know if it would be enough for Tex, though if they paid more per-year he may be willing to go for it.  Again, I think this *should* be pursued, but doesn’t mean it has to happen.

No one they grabbed in the draft that could possibly play 1B will be ready anytime soon, barring a totally unforeseen explosion and rapid, rapid development. also they guy who OPS over 2.000 is a LF.

He (Chris Smith) apparently has played some 1B as well.  Also, the other guy I was thinking of is Luke Anders, who is 6’6’‘.  Again, best case for any of these guys is 2012.

it is the giambi mistake all over again..

That’s my previous point:  Giambi hasn’t really been much of a mistake.  He hasn’t been a bargain, but he hasn’t been a bust, either.

except Giambi was better than Tex is now when we got him.

Probably, but there are some contextual issues given that offensive levels were higher when the Yanks got Giambi, and Giambi may have been benefiting from the PED’s that he has admitted using.

A week ago Tex was hitting .270 with 6 homers.

And Giambi was hitting .150 a little over a month ago.  Selective endpoints.  In addition, Teixeira has a tendency to start somewhat slow (so he would fit in well with the Yankees).

Giambi has definitely been a mistake. Given SG’s analysis Gs value is 75% of his cost. The word bargain should never be uttered when talking about Giambis contract.

Getting Tex for more than 5 or 6 years is not a good idea in my opinion. I would rather convert matsui and spend the cash on CC.

Given SG’s analysis Gs value is 75% of his cost.

You didn’t just look at the chart, did you?  If Giambi continues to hit as he has, he’ll be closer to 85% of the cost.  Then depending on insurances (how much if any the Yanks got paid for time he was on the DL), he may actually come out *ahead* in cost/value.

The mistake on Giambi was the NTC.  He would have it now be default anyway, but the Yankees could have eaten $$ earlier to trade him.  Whatever happens with Tex, no NTC!

Let Giambi go, get the draft picks, strip him of the ‘stache and the thong on his way out, and play those two at first until a better solution arrives. They won’t need a body.

I definitely just looked at the chart. However, I don’t feel I ever needed a chart to say we should not have gotten Giambi. Don’t get me wrong, I am loving him right about now, but there is one glaring number when it comes to him.

0 World Championships.

Who cares how close Giambi comes to being worth his contract when it has not helped us win a championship.

Agreed on the NTC.

I can’t speak for anyone else but there’s no resistance on my part to a 29 year old Teixera a 32 year old Teixeira or even a 34 year old Teixeira.  I do not want to see a 38 year old Teixeira though - earing $24 million in a Yankee uniform.

Hey, I don’t want to see a 38-year-old Teixeira in a Yankee uniform earning $24 million either, but we’d have to give him a 10-year contract in order to see that! That’s not going to happen. Even a 7-year contract will only get him to age 35 in a Yankee uniform.

As for trading blue chip pitchers for a 1B, why not if the Yanks have an excess of young pitching?

Because the Yankees are going to need to replace a significant number of relatively high-performing position players over the next few years (as well as experience the inevitable decline of A-Rod and the continuing decline of Jeter). If we don’t have to use the excess of young pitching on a 1B replacement, we may have something that could help us trade for a catcher or outfielder or ...

When i said as advertised, I meant this season given his half year performance for atl last year.

Well, then, based on that criteria, Bernie Williams rarely performed as advertised, since he always was a slow starter.

I feel like signing him will take mucho dollars and years, and it is the giambi mistake all over again except Giambi was better than Tex is now when we got him. A week ago Tex was hitting .270 with 6 homers. The rbis are there but you better be driving runs in when the guy in front of you is on base more than half the time. He is a good 1b though.

Giambi was two years younger at the beginning of his free agent contract. Makes a big difference.
I guess I take back “way overrated” but I still think he is overrated.

Who/how is he overrated? He’s been an all-star ONCE in his career. So the fans/managers are not overrating him. For the most part, we’re not (on this blog).

Giambi was two years younger at the beginning of his free agent contract. Makes a big difference.

Wait. What? Giambi was 31 in his first year with New York. Tex will be in his age 29 season next year. Typo? Or am I misunderstanding you?

Who/how is he overrated?

He’s been repeatedly named as the best potential 1b free agent for about a year now.  It makes me afraid of the Yankees falling prey to the “Bobby Bonilla” syndrome whereby a team overpays extremely for someone whose main claim to fame is being the best in a bad class of free agents.  Of course, like everyone else, I’d be happy if the Yanks signed him without having to overpay.  It’s not like the Yanks get much of a home town discount from their homegrown stars anyway.

I am amused by the continual drumbeat for the outright wholesale shedding of older athletes. These calls for change are always loudest after some tough games and the weekend certainly was representative of that.  Ironically,right now, Giambi and Moose are part of the small group on the team that is performing as hoped for or in excess of that.. I don’t know about the 2nd half of the season, but if Cano finally finds his stroke it will likely be a get on the bandwagon kind of thing.  Too often young players confidence betrays them. This is the interesting thing to watch with the Rays.  They definitely have tremendous talent there. It will be interesting to see if they implode after some adversity hits them in one kind or another.  It’s a very long season and we Yankee fans know that better than most. Where you are in the standings on the first of June doesn’t translate necessarily to a spot in the postseason.

I hear the calls to allow Giambi and Moose to walk or get them to agree to a trade (ditto Damon or Matsui) but don’t think for a minute if all these guys are flushed it will turn up a team in return of all-stars.  When a team goes to an all youth movement often it ends up being a long long process. Tampa and KC have had the best draft positions for years and only Tampa looks remotely close to finally making the grade.

That’s not to say that Cashman won’t explore things and if someone is bitching about the way the front office isn’t playing for this year and continues the sniping and griping then this kind of thing (a trade) becomes more likely than not to occur. I hope it doesn’t come to that and team youth transformation can occur at a reasonable and orderly pace.

0 World Championships.

Who cares how close Giambi comes to being worth his contract when it has not helped us win a championship.

Right.  I guess Don Mattingly wasn’t worth his salaries, either. Nor Dave Winfield.  On the other hand, we won a WS with Kenny Rogers in 1996, so he must’ve earned his.

Wait. What? Giambi was 31 in his first year with New York. Tex will be in his age 29 season next year. Typo? Or am I misunderstanding you?

Typo. My bad.

I think Tex is doing a pretty good job proving he would do ok in Yankee Stadium. Hitting in that Atlanta park isn’t easy.  Not a lot of cheapy homers.
As to the prospect of signing him, I think six years would be a fair deal. He may be able to beat that offer from the Mets but they too have to watch their payroll after signing so many FA’s like Santana, Beltran among others.

Baltimore may have an inside track as it’s his hometown and I think he likes the Braves so he maybe will work something out right where he is at.

I don’t see any other options in the near future beyond 2009 within the system. I keep thinking Eric Duncan will finally break out but he will be fortunate to get a cup of coffee in the bigs.  We need first base to occupy a solid overall player and I don’t know where the Yanks will find one elsewhere in the next couple of years.

If WS championships are the measure of greatness than Ernie Banks and Don Mattingly probably shouldn’t be considered a success in this game. At least Giambi and Moose helped the team to two pennants.

I’m on the West Coast and I do not intend to follow the games.  Too much else to do and the level of play right now doesn’t motivate me to neglect those things.  Wake me in August.

I was going to ask if anyone had news on Hughes but happened to check his blog first.  Here’s today’s entry:

“On another note, I have been pain free for about a week and hope to be throwing again soon. I also received my new Oakley prescription glasses for when I’m back on the mound.”

What’s up with “pain free”?  Had he been in pain before, or does that mean “while doing specialized usually non-painful activity x”? 

And what’s a typical delta from starting throwing to starting ML games?

Tex has a career .864 OPS in Yankee Stadium (.337 OBP, .527 SLG) in 95 PA.

Interesting analysis. It’ll be fun to do this with some of the other big contracts over which so many panties got wadded up. A prime example from our side: Manny’s $200m, or $160 or whatever the final # is. Some other examples from our side, for the future: Drew’s $75m, Matsuzaka’s $105.

The wealthier and smarter teams have been able to think about the long-term costs and contract values over the entire term and whatnot, even while their own fanbase gets hung up on the OMFG!! size of the contract total as if it were all paid out in advance.

And what’s a typical delta from starting throwing to starting ML games?

Non-Pavano division?

I’d imagine it depends on the type of injury that was sustained.  Since it’s not an arm injury, Hughes’s timetable may be a little faster than someone rehabbing an elbow or shoulder injury.

I’d guess he’ll throw for a couple of weeks off flat ground, then move up to a mound for another two weeks, then start rehab games and probably pitch 3-4 of those.  So 5-6 weeks would be my WAG.

Thanks, that sounds plausible, not that I’d know.  Sounds like August than July.

IPK threw 30 pitches in the bullpen today.

I’ve been going over this “marginal FA value” idea today, and I keep going back and forth on whether the number should be different for the Yankees.  Yes, a marginal win is worth more to the Yankees than to the average team, especially if those marginal wins are the difference between going to the postseason or not, so the $4.5MM figure would be low for the valuation.  But then again, you have to think about what other teams are paying for FA services, because that’s the actual market, so there’s no realy reason for the Yankees to have to “overpay” for a marginal win.  I guess in the end you have to split the “Yankee added value” of a marginal win between the team and the player, so the figure would be slightly higher than league average, but not equal to the marginal value of a win to the Yankees.