I was just thinking that either Kazmir has something physically wrong with him and that’s why his numbers are so poor this season, or he is due for an extreme correction in the form of multiple dominating starts.

When’s the last time the Yankees had three regular starters (as in guys with at least 12 games started) with ERAs under 4 this late in the season?

Answering my own question, it looks like 2005 was the last time:

On July 27, 2005, the Yankees had:

Big Unit: 3.95
Moose: 3.83
Wang: 3.89

Amusingly enough, from July 26-July 31 was the only time that could be said about the Yankees that year (as Johnson lowered his ERA under 4 on the 26th then went back over on the 31st and by the time he got back under, Moose was over). Also, my “POOMA” figure of 12 games started was JUST matched by Wang, who had 13 games started at that point.

Joba just 6-2. Can we call him Mr. Indecision or Mr. Indecisive?

Log5 would tell us the Rays should take two out of three, but if the Yankees can improve on that, they’ll be setting themselves up really nicely for the rest of the season.

If the Yankees sweep, Tampa is pretty much out of the division chase.  Sure, Yanks could act like the team from Queens, and Tampa could go on a historic run.  But pretty much, Yankees sweep takes Tampa out of the division run.

I don’t want to get ahead of myself (but I will anyways), but it is entirely possible Yankees could all but wrap up the division by August 9th this year.  Wouldn’t that be nice?

I can’t get too excited about the prospect of the Yankees’ edging out the Rays for a wildcard spot having played out the last two months of the season at .500.

I don’t want to get ahead of myself (but I will anyways), but it is entirely possible Yankees could all but wrap up the division by August 9th this year.  Wouldn’t that be nice?

Having the ability to lighten CC’s innings load in September gives them the best chance of going far in the playoffs.

5 - If the Yankees had won a mediocre 3 of 8 from Boston, the division would be wrapped up right now.

Having the ability to lighten CC’s innings load in September

Was watching some of the 76 Allstar Game Saturday and saw a graphic as Catfish Hunter was pitching. If I read it right he had compiled 176 innings at the all star break. I think he had like 30 complete games in 75.  Contrast to the way we handle Joba etc nowadays.

“Playoffs? Playoffs?? PLAYOFFS?!?”

Jim Mora

I’ll be happier when there’s a starter or two who really inspires confidence when he takes the mound.  I’m not saying they haven’t been good - in fact, let me say this: they have been good.
But none, I think, who inspires “we play today - we win today!” confidence.  None who makes you thinks that, in the playoffs, his starts can be penned in as probable wins.
Strangely, Burnett has come closest… but we all know that, until quite recently, it’s been anything but pretty.
If Joba continues to pitch as he has in his last few starts, if CC gives you a few dominant starts in a row with a number of strikeouts that doesn’t suggest departure from his historical norms,

Coming into this season, the bullpen was supposed to be a strength for this team.  After a few weeks, it was a disaster.  The make-up of the BP would have surprised us(Marte’s not part of it and Hughes is), but the results - not so much.

Phil - what was the context for that quote?

Hunter faced 1,294 batters in 1975.  Sabathia led the AL last year with just over 1,000.  Even crazier, Bob Feller faced 1,512 in 1946.

Sabathia is pitching to a 1.16 WHIP.  Every time he takes the ball, I expect them to win.  Burnett and Chamberlain have been credible options, though I guess we were supposed to expect that the latter would pitch to a 0.38 ERA.  I’d like for Joba to get the walks down.  But I think it’s a pretty formidable top three.

Pettitte, on the other hand…I fully expect six run innings at any time.  And I fully expect Girardi to give him the ball in a pivotal game three, or worse, down 2-1 for a game four.

I can’t get too excited about the prospect of the Yankees’ edging out the Rays for a wildcard spot having played out the last two months of the season at .500.

Nope, me either.  This is a good team that shouldn’t go 31-30 over their last 61 games unless a lot of bad things happen.  But the point is, they’re getting close to the point where they’re going to be in a very good spot as far as making the postseason, and then setting up the team to get there, resting whomever needs to be rested, etc.,

5 - If the Yankees had won a mediocre 3 of 8 from Boston, the division would be wrapped up right now.

I’ve been playing around with my Monte Carlo simulator and right now it says the Yankees have around a 58% chance at the division, and 89% at the playoffs.

If they had beaten Boston the following number of times, here’s how those percentages would look.

Once: Division: 64%, Playoffs: 92%
Twice: Division: 67% Playoffs: 93%
Three times: Division: 68% Playoffs: 94%
Four times: Division: 73% Playoffs: 95%

But they didn’t, so they don’t.

That seems like a lot for a handful of games, but remember that the Boston and Tampa Bay play each other eight more times this year.  So they have some combination of eight losses that are definitely coming to them, which only helps the Yankees.

jh - did anything in my post really suggest such expectations?
And have Joba’s last few starts been so brilliant that we’re going to entirely forget and/or deny that there were enough problems just prior thereto to make many here seriously concerned?  I have no doubt Joba can be consistently dominant, and I tend to think that he will - but you just can’t tell me that he’s been the kind of starter this year who makes you think “ok, we’re winning today!” when he takes the mound.

[9] That could be a reason why Catfish’s ERA+ became league average beginning at age 30 (along with less advanced remedial surgical procedures).

[16]:

Keep in mind that Hunter started pitching at the ML level when he was 19, and threw a full season when he was 20.  By the time he was 30 he had thrown over 2700 innings.  About 1,000 less than Mussina in his entire career.

but remember that the Boston and Tampa Bay play each other eight more times this year.  So they have some combination of eight losses that are definitely coming to them,

I fully expect them to tie at least 3 of those games, and have Selig award each a win in the standings “because that’s what’s right for the game.”

Hunter faced 1,294 batters in 1975.  Sabathia led the AL last year with just over 1,000.  Even crazier, Bob Feller faced 1,512 in 1946.

POOMA but also CW: Batters took fewer pitchers, batters sucked more, there were a lot more .200-hitting middle infielders with no power, pitching was easier.

[11]“I’ll be happier when there’s a starter or two who really inspires confidence when he takes the mound.  I’m not saying they haven’t been good - in fact, let me say this: they have been good.
But none, I think, who inspires “we play today - we win today!” confidence.  None who makes you thinks that, in the playoffs, his starts can be penned in as probable wins. “

Who has three guys that inspire that more than CC/AJ/Joba?  Anyway, those games don’t exist in the playoffs.  You’re facing good teams/good pitchers every night.

There’s not a pitcher in baseball who you can say is definitively better than CC.

as much as I’d like to agree with you snapper, I’d have to say that Halladay is definitively better than C.C.  And to be honest, I think greinke and Lincecum are probably better too.  Before you get on me about this, please not i’ve been defending CC’s value against bibigon over at BTF as he has basically maintained that CC is in decline and he’d rather have BECKETT!! and Lester than Sabathia.

“There’s not a pitcher in baseball who you can say is definitively better than CC.”

Based upond playoff performances which really is the yardstick, I would think a few guys outrank CC.  Beckett and Lester have measured up and I think we have to acknowledge this.  As to Halliday, I would give him the nod, though he hasn’t had an opportunity. I would like my chances with him in the post season.

Assuming the Yanks make the playoffs,Sabathia will likely be facing the other team’s best.  It would be a matchup similar to a week ago when he faced Verlander.  This is really what they got Randy Johnson for, and he failed at crunch time.  We have to hope that CC can do it in the playoff’s (along with AJ) or it will be a repeat of 05-07 and an early exit.

Back to Hunter. His “overuse” didn’t keep him from winning 20 games in a row I think five times and a HOF plaque.  I think he more than realized his potential.

20 wins in a row five times would be mighty impressive.  No of course I meant to say five times winning twenty games or more.

The Zips (rest of season) has Halladay with a FIP of 3.10 vs. 3.20 for CC.  I’d call them equivalent and a cut above everyone else b/c of the durability and innings they pitch.

Greinke and Lincecum just don’t have the track record to be compared to guys like CC and Halladay.  You can’t base pitcher evaluation entirely on a half-season of work.  Are we discounting CC’s 2nd half last year already?

I’m just not going to declare CC a “bad post-season pitcher” based on 3 bad and 1 mediocre starts in 5 opportunities.  I think the predictive value of postseason games several seasons ago in forecasting a CC/Beckett matchup is nil.

Hunter wasn’t actually a HOF quality pitcher. He was an innings eater with a couple of good seasons. He got in because of run support and a cool nickname.

as much as I’d like to agree with you snapper, I’d have to say that Halladay is definitively better than C.C.  And to be honest, I think greinke and Lincecum are probably better too.

You’re falling into the trap of only looking at this year.  While we should weigh this year most heavily, we shouldn’t ignore whatever previous data we have.

I had Halladay projected as the most valuable pitcher in baseball entering 2009, with C.C. second.  Their performance to date hasn’t changed that, with Halladay about 10 runs better so far.  Greinke’s been awesome, no question, but he’s been regressing over his last 10 starts (ERA of 3.39, 5 HRs allowed in 66 innings compared to 0 HRs allowed over his first 75).  Lincecum’s really good, but I’m not sure he’s that much better than Halladay or C.C. once you adjust for league.

Does Lincecum have only 1/2 a season of good work to judge by?

[27]“Does Lincecum have only 1/2 a season of good work to judge by?”

How is Lincecum’s 2008 better than CC’s?

CC ate up Timmy’s league like it was the all-you-can-eat buffet at Sizzler.

None of this is really what worries me.
Over the last few seasons, CC’s been at least comparable to anyone in the game.  You might choose someone else, but - at least comparable.
But a statistically oriented site, I think, doesn’t just say “big sample size of a few years over this year’s performance.”  There are other factors.
Among them: isn’t CC’s strikeout rate down by (POOMA) about 2 per game?  By (POOMA) around 15% per game?  Might this not be relevant to some of the really not good performances (countered by some performances with very, very good results) that have cropped up, not only at the very beginning of the season?  Is this any reason for concern?
And does Joba really inspire that much confidence?  It’s only three starts ago that his staunchest supporters on this site were beginning to cave!
I love the rotation.  I think it SHOULD be fabulous, and I think it will be.  But - honestly, there are things to think about here.

[28]
How is this a response to my question?

Based upond playoff performances which really is the yardstick…

CC has 25 IP in the playoffs. That’s far too few to fairly be considered a “yardstick.” I think it basically means that he was spent by October.

[28]
“How is this a response to my question? “

I was saying that Greinke and Lincecum only have half a season of pitching better than CC.  You asked if Lincecum had a longer track record of being good.  Of course the answer is yes, but my point all along was if you go back before this year, then CC is just as good or better.

No one is saying that Greinke and Lincecum, (and Verlander and F Hernandez too, if you want to be more inclusive) are not great pitchers.  My point is that you have to shorten the sample size to this year only to make anybody look better than CC.

What about Texas?  They’re still in the WC hunt in an easier division then ours.

H
A L
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[34]  Oh the Yankees traded for Halladay?  Cool.

So this season, being only 1/2 season, can’t provide a reason for concern?  And here I was, silly me, worrying about Wang!  Now, that’s tongue-in-cheek, of course, but are there any statistically sensible concerns about CC?  Does decreased strikeout ratio not correspond to potentially undesireable trends?

I like our portion of the rotation entering this series, hope the performance reflects it.

It’s been so long since the Yankees have been solely in first place for this amount of time, I am not sure if I’m doing it correctly.

[37] Are you taunting Mets and Sox fans?

I may be a spoiled fan, but it’s just so darn nice to be back where the Yankees belong.

My main worry for the playoff rotation will honestly be Pettite.  I may be too optimistic, but I have a feeling that CC/AJ/Joba will be a great top 3.  Add that to the lights-out bullpen and offensive firepower and I’d be pretty confident in any playoff series.

[36]  The K-rate doesn’t worry me, b/c his FB velocity is up from 93.8 to 94.1 and there is no deterioration of the movement on his pitches (as per Fangraphs pitchFX).  If it was injury related, it should show up in pitch FX.

I think it’s probably a combination of park factor and intentionally pitching to contact to try and give the team more innings (especially earlier in the year when the rotation was struggling).

PS Also, looking at 2009 vs 2008 only overstates the decline.  His 2008 K-rate of 9 is well above his career average of 7.5.

Is there any evidence that pitching in the playoffs involves a different set of skills than pitching in the RS?  Apart from the fact that the games are more important and the opposing hitters tend to be better, isn’t it the same thing? 

I get tired of people reflexively attributing virtually every good or bad postseason performance to the fact that it took place in the playoffs.  It’s one thing to lament the fact that a particular player DIDN’T get the job done when it counted the most.  It’s another thing to infer that the inability to get the job done when it counts the most constitutes a trait that can be expected to stay with a player throughout his career.

I’m worried about the K-rate. It’s a pretty steep drop. But I figure there is a bit of an adjustment, and SSS, so I’m hoping second half effectiveness corrects some of the stuff.

The K-rate doesn’t worry me, b/c his FB velocity is up from 93.8 to 94.1 and there is no deterioration of the movement on his pitches (as per Fangraphs pitchFX).  If it was injury related, it should show up in pitch FX.

Now THAT’S an answer!  Snapper, thank you.  I feel much better having read that.  Honestly!

[45]  No problem.

Fangraphs in general and pitchFX is awesome!

As an addendum, Joba’s velocity decline is real.  But, we have a very small sample prior to this year, so we have no way to know how much is just an adjustment to starting vs. physical or mechanical issues.

I’m guessing mostly mechanical/style adjustments, since he still hits 96+ in the mid-innings.  I think he is having trouble repeating his delivery, so needs to back off on his FB to maintain control.  In the mid-innings he’s probably settled into to his delivery pattern, and can ramp it up a bit.

Snapper, my impression is also that Joba’s velocity, since the first few weeks of the season, has been trending upwards, which would also be grounds for optimism.  Is that not so?

[47]  Can’t really tell from the scale of the graph.

PS Found another chart, and it seems like there is a mild upward trend, but nothing significant.

I think the real issue is we just don’t know what Joba “baseline velocity” is as a starter.  In early 2008 he was averaging around 95, vs. 92-93 this year, but we don’t know if that was sustainable as a starter.

I don’t know why all these fancy stats were necessary.  This morning I woke up and said “ok, if the Yankees take 2 out of 3 this series, the playoffs are a lock”.

It FEELS about right, so no need to crunch any numbers

I’m thinking it’s Pena that gets called up for the back up CF spot. And hopefully duplicating around average defensive production.

It can’t be AJax, can it?

Or one of the other AAA OFs with Damon or Swisher occasionally seeing early action in CF to be replaced by Melky after the 7th or so inning?

Or trade?

Or just leave it as is, with Melky getting the bulk, occasionally spot starting Damon/Swisher to be replaced by Melky after the 7th, and using Damon/Swisher if Melky goes down.

“And hopefully duplicating around average defensive production.”

How could that be?  Unless he’s immensely innately talented in the OF, there has to be a learning curve of more than a handful of games.  Not to mention learning where the wall is in each park - he’s never had to be concerned about a wall full stop.

Schteeve, what was the meaning of [34]?
(And what was that - a marquee freeze-frame?)

[53] I imagine that was a late reply to, “There’s not a pitcher in baseball who you can say is definitively better than CC.”

[52] I did say hopefully.

The only real CF option is AJackson, I’m just thinking the FO rather bide their time with some other plan than commit to taking away his development. For now.

The only real CF option is AJackson, I’m just thinking the FO rather bide their time with some other plan than commit to taking away his development. For now.

That’s not precisely true.  Colin Curtis is a fine defensive OF.  When I’ve witnessed him play, I think he’s shown good range.  Haven’t seen his arm much, but I think I’ve read it is decent, so he could probably handle RF in a pinch.  He’s not much of a hitter, and his ceiling is probably 4th OF.  But if they just want someone to pinch-run and sub in the OF, you could do worse than Curtis.  Think of him as Bubba Crosby, not as much speed but maybe a little more power.  You aren’t too worried about setting back his development either.

If they want a bat, I think they give Shelley a chance.  He’s got two partial seasons of MLB playing time, one was great, one was awful.  The awful one he was recovering from shoulder surgery (I think), and since he’s still raking in the minors I don’t think it would hurt to give him a shot.  At worst, I don’t think he’ll be any worse than Pena as a hitter, at best maybe 2007 was closer to what he can offer in the majors and you have a legit RH bat off the bench.

I like to see Shelley get another chance. But Shelley don’t really solve the CF problem.

Cool, thanks for the heads up with the Curtis.

CF is not a problem unless Melky gets hurt.  Good teams have had worse contingency plans than Damon/Swisher for an inning here or there until the rosters expand in September.

If they don’t call up Shelley now they might as well release him.

But Shelley don’t really solve the CF problem.

What the Frog said.  It really comes down to if the Yankees want a bat who *can* play the OF, or a player for defensive reasons.  Defense they probably go w/ Pena, offense they go w/ Shelley.  Also of course depends on how long they expect Gardner out.  If it is really only 3 weeks they’ll go short-term.  If they think it may last into mid-September a trade wouldn’t shock me.

If they don’t call up Shelley now they might as well release him.

Well, he IS helping SWB Yankees win, and IS the most popular player here.  He’ll be a FA after this year, so if he isn’t added to the 40 man soon I’m sure he’ll be signing somewhere else in the off-season.

Hunter may or may not have deserved the HOF, that’s debateable. My point is that his injury to his arm occurred in 77-79 and only after an enormous number of years and innings in which he accomplished a great deal including a perfect game IIRC. One thing he was and that is a class act all the way.

I would have given Shelley a call up some time ago. You never know where he might win a game or two with a pinch homer. I realize he K’s a lot, but the power is there with plenty to spare.

Don’t like Posada as catcher against the Rays. I’d dh him, sit Matsui for late innings ph, and try and hold down their running game-if that’s even possible.
Seems like Po hasn’t thrown anyone out in a month- Sterling always makes a note to blame the pitcher each time. Though it may be true a good deal of the time, I doubt it’s always on the pitcher every time.

If Burnett starts issuing a lot of BB’s it could be a long night. Shields is not an easy guy to score on so a major test tonite.

Suddenly the unbeatable Yankees are downright boring compared to the JV squad over in Queens.  I like it this way.

Why do I have a feeling the Red Sox will end up getting Halladay?

Paranoid schizophrenic?

So long as they give up the farm for him, what’s the problem?  If they give up Lugo (whom they’ve already traded, I know that and it’s exactly what I mean) for Halladay, cash (not Cash) and 7 players to be named later, however…

Concur with Pete.  They’ll be a lot easier to beat over the next 5 years with Halladay and without their 4 best prospects.  If JP wanted Joba and Hughes + 2 more propects from the Yanks, he’ll need to get Buchholz, Bowden, Masterson and some more.

Apparently Arroyo was pulled from his next start.  Sox media here in the press box seem to think he’s going to the Yankees.

I’m not too confident Arroyo’s any better than Mitre at this point.

You guys (Pete and Snapper) are forgetting that the Red Soxers are run by the Boy Wonder, the Bestest GM Ever and all-around genius, Theo Epstein, GM.

I’m not too confident Arroyo’s any better than Mitre at this point.

He probably isn’t.  I hope this is all just a bunch of bullveras.

Generally we shouldn’t care about fair trades, right?

Hmm, no, the whole point of trading is to take advantage of relative variations in value [or substitute actually informed economics] - so if the RS think they need a dominant starter now plus the draft picks when he’s a FA, and they give up players worth less than that to them (but more than Halladay is worth to Toronto) that’s bad for us.  Maybe their problem at this point is finding good enough players to spend the available money on.

OK, obviously it’s true that it’s bad if the RS make a good trade and good if they make a bad trade.
The idea, I suppose, is that, if Toronto’s going to ask for more than enough to scare NY off, then surely Boston is no less “in the division” and will have to give up far too much, too.
If that’s NOT true, then, of course, all bets are off.
It wasn’t true with the Schilling deal, after all, admittedly!

[70]  If JP insists on the equivalent of Joba, Hughes +2 prospects it isn’t a fair trade.

“If that’s NOT true, then, of course, all bets are off.”

The RS and BJ might be a much better trading fit, but yeah.

I don’t think the Sox and Jays are a good trading fit.  The Jays have lots of pitching and no bats.  All the best Sox prospects seem to be pitchers.

CF is not a problem unless Melky gets hurt.  Good teams have had worse contingency plans than Damon/Swisher for an inning here or there until the rosters expand in September.

It’s not just about CF. Girardi has shown that he is less than confident with Damon’s (and to some degree, Swisher’s) defense in the late innings of close games. Putting Shelley Duncan on the 25 man roster does nothing to address that issue.

Well they’re not going to put Pena in for defense, over Damon or Swisher, with his 6 games worth of experience.

Do we know that?

It’s also why calling up AJack and allowing him to split time with Melky, may be their best option for two or three weeks.